It's Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

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It’s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

June 2014

www.mashreqgold.com mashreq F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW 2014 FIFA World Cup Report 05 June 2014 It’s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

We are pleased to launch our Special Report on the 20th edition of the FIFA World Cup 2014, which kicks-off on 12th June in Brazil, when the hosts face Croatia. The tournament will last for just over a month during which the 32 qualified teams will play a total of 64 matches in 12 cities, including the grand Finale on 13th July at the Maracana in Rio De Janeiro. We are sure you will be closely following the progress of your respective national teams, if they are playing in the tournament. Even if your national team is not involved in the action, we hope, either as neutrals or supporters of a team, you will be interested in the results. Brazil is staging the FIFA World Cup for the second time, the first being in 1950.

Brazil and football are synonymous! Brazil is a football crazy nation. Since the first World Cup in 1930, only eight teams have won the title. Among them is five-time winner, Brazil, followed by Italy Moreover, Brazil is the only country to have participated in all 19 editions of this event. The country has produced some of the greatest players in the history of world football, including Pelé, Garrincha, Ronaldo and Kaká. Brazilian players have won the Ballon d‘Or five times in the past 15 years. Football is almost a religion in the country. In 1950, when Brazil lost the final match to Uruguay, a distressed fan committed suicide and three others died from heart attack. According to FIFA.com, the official site for the event, Brazilian fans purchased more than sixty percent of the tickets that went on sale online in mid-April 2014.

World Cup likely to boost tourism in Brazil Several sectors, including civil construction, food and beverage, business services, and tourism and hospitality, are likely to benefit from the global event. In the 2010 World Cup held in South Africa, 3.2 million people attended the tournament. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Tourism, 3.7 million people are estimated to travel across the country during the month- long tournament. Approximately 1.9 million fans are estimated to travel to the 12 Brazilian cities hosting matches and FIFA fan fests, while another 1.8 million visitors would travel to Brazil to enjoy the festivities around the World Cup. Moreover, an average foreign tourist would attend four World Cup matches and spend approximately USD2,488 during the visit. Overall, the Brazilian economy is expected to grow by USD3.03 billion, led by tourist inflow during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Minister of Tourism, Vinicius Lages, noted that the financial turnover in tourism may be more than double if the multiplier effect of indirect and induced financial transactions resulting from these visitors is considered.

Brazilian government under criticism The government is estimated to have spent more than USD11 billion on World Cup preparations. Yet, there are delays in the completion of infrastructure projects and stadium constructions. According to market sources, the soccer stadiums in Natal and Porto Alegre still need work, while the Itaquerao stadium has not received approval from the fire department for the entire seating section. The stadiums were due to be completed last year. The delays have led to criticism from FIFA and angry protests have taken place in various cities over exceeding costs.

Brazil’s national team under pressure to win Playing on home soil has its advantages, although Brazil has yet to win the tournament at home. Six host countries have won the title in previous editions: Uruguay (1930), Italy (1934), England (1966), Germany (1974), Argentina (1978), and France (1998). Brazil and Sweden were runners-up when they hosted the tournament in 1950 and 1958, while Chile (1962), Italy (1990), and Germany (2006) finished in the third place. It is interesting to note that a national team with a foreign coach has never won the World Cup. On 16 July, 1950, the entire nation mourned as Uruguay defeated Brazil in the finals. The match, termed as ―Maracanazo‖, is considered to be national tragedy and distresses the country to date. Accordingly, Brazil is under tremendous pressure given the high expectations from the country to win its first World Cup on home soil.

Popular choice team, Champion, Runners Up and Award Winners We took inputs from our colleagues and clients over the last month and based on the number of votes polled for each player, we have come up with a Popular 11 (P 11). Furthermore, based on your votes, we also have the Champion and the Runners up for this edition, and winners of individual performance awards such as the Golden Ball, Golden Boot and Golden Glove. The response was overwhelming as we received entries not only from the GCC/MENA region but from Asia, Europe and North America as well.

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Venue Details

12 Stadiums of World Cup 2014

The stadiums are spread across the country‘s five regions, spanning 12 cities: capital Brasília, Cuiabá, Salvador, Fortaleza, Natal, Manaus, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, Recife, São Paulo, and Curitiba. The latter six cities would host the tournament for the second time in 2014. The opening match of the championship would be held at Arena de São Paulo in Brazil‘s largest city, São Paulo. The finals would be played in the historical Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, on July 13, 2014. This is the largest stadium in Brazil, and was also used for the 1950 edition of the game. Arena da Baixada is the smallest venue, with a capacity of 41,456. An average 5.33 matches would be played per venue. In 1950, a total of 1,045,246 fans watched the tournament, the largest audience until England 1966.

Arena Amazônia Fortaleza Estádio Castelão Capacity : 42,374 Capacity : 64,856 Estádio das Dunas Manaus Capacity : 42,086 Natal

Recife Arena Pernambuco Arena Pantanal Belo Capacity : 44,248 Capacity : 42,968 Horizonte Cuiabá Brasília Estádio Nacional Estádio Mineirão Capacity : 70,064 Capacity : 62,547 Salvador Arena Fonte Nova Capacity : 48,747 Rio de Janeiro São Paulo Estádio do Maracanã Arena da Baixada Capacity : 76,804 Capacity : 41,456 Arena de São Paulo Curitiba Capacity : 65,807

Porto Alegre Estádio Beira-Rio Capacity : 48,849

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW FIFA 2014 − Groups, Teams and Key Statistics

Group A Group E Country Times FIFA Best performance Country Times FIFA Best performance qualified rank qualified rank

Brazil 20 4 Winners (1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002) Ecuador 3 26 Round of 16 (2006)

Cameroon 7 50 Quarter-finals (1990) France 14 16 Winners (1998)

Croatia 4 20 Third place (1998) Honduras 3 30 Group stage (1982, 2010)

Mexico 15 19 Quarter-finals (1970, 1986) Switzerland 10 8 Quarter-finals (1934, 1938, 1954)

Group B Group F Country Times FIFA Best performance Country Times FIFA Best performance qualified rank qualified rank

Australia 4 59 Round of 16 (2006) Argentina 16 7 Winners (1978, 1986)

Chile 9 13 Third place (1962) Bosnia 1 25 NA

Netherlands 10 15 Runners-up (1974, 1978, 2010) Iran 4 37 Group stage (1978, 1998, 2006)

Spain 14 1 Winners (2010) Nigeria 5 44 Round of 16 (1994, 1998)

Group C Group G

Country Times FIFA Best performance Country Times FIFA Best performance qualified rank qualified rank

Colombia 5 5 Round of 16 (1990) Germany 18 2 Winners (1954, 1974, 1990)

Côte d'Ivoire 3 21 Group stage (2006, 2010) Ghana 3 38 Quarter-finals (2010)

Greece 3 10 Group stage (1994, 2010) Portugal 6 3 Third place (1966)

Japan 5 47 Round of 16 (2002, 2010) USA 10 14 Third place (1930)

Group D Group H

Country Times FIFA Best performance Country Times FIFA Best performance qualified rank qualified rank

Costa Rica 4 34 Round of 16 (1990) Algeria 4 25 Group stage (1982, 1986, 2010)

England 14 11 Winners (1966) Belgium 12 12 Fourth place (1986)

Italy 18 9 Winners (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006) S. Korea 9 55 Fourth place (2002)

Uruguay 12 6 Winners (1930, 1950) Russia 10* 18 Fourth place (1966)

Source: ww.fifa.com; *This is the 3rd appearance of Russia at the World Cup. However, FIFA considers Russia as the successor team of the USSR; note: FIFA ranks as of May 2014

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Mashreq - World Cup Popular Choice 11 (P 11)

Manuel Neuer

Phillip Vincent Lahm Company

Thiago Sergio Silva Ramos

Yahya Andre Bastian Toure Iniesta Schweinsteiger

Robin Christiano Van Persie Ronaldo

Lionel Messi

Players of 16 countries were nominated for P 11 Some of the major footballing countries whose players did not get any votes are: Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Nigeria Germany has the most number of players (3) in P 11, followed by Spain (2) Christiano Ronaldo was the most popular player getting the highest number of votes Marcelo, Eden Hazard and Sergio Aguero missed selection in P 11 by a single vote only

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Match Predictions and Awards Winners

Groups Round of 16 QF SF Final SF QF Round of 16 Groups

A Brazil Mexico A

B Netherlands Spain B

C Colombia Ivory Coast C

D Uruguay Italy D

E France Switzerland E

F Bosnia Argentina F

G Germany Belgium G

H South Korea Portugal H

Dark Horse

A B C D E F G H

Croatia Chile Japan England Ecuador Nigeria Ghana Russia

Route to the Final At group stage, we don‘t expect any major surprises, although we have rated one team from each group as a dark horse. England‘s elimination from Group D is not an upset in our opinion. In our opinion, Round-of-16 will see elimination of some major names such as the Netherlands and Portugal Our quarter-final line up offers a strong chance to Brazil to avenge the defeat to Uruguay in the 1950 World Cup final at home Argentina could play against either Belgium or Portugal. In either case we expect Argentina to be third time lucky and win to finally proceed to the semi-final We have a heart-break in store for the home fans in the semi-final – Germany will be too good for Brazil Argentina, led by Lionel Messi will beat the current world champions, Spain in the other semi-final The final between Argentina and Germany will be mouthwatering. We are backing Argentina to avenge the defeat suffered at the hands of West Germany in 1990.

Champion Champion Golden Ball Germany and Argentina received equal number of votes from you to Christiano Ronaldo win the World Cup. To resolve the tie, our colleague Usman Khan was a clear favourite. met Diego Maradona (El Diego) and asked him for his vote. Answer Neymar was a distant is obvious and hence Argentina was nominated as the second Champion. You can see a smiling Usman Khan in the picture above. Runner Up Golden Boot

Christiano Ronaldo again, although Lionel Messi was very close

Third Place Golden Glove Manuel Neuer was an almost unanimous choice. Thibaut Courtois got some votes but could not pose a serious challenge to the German.

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Table of Contents

GROUP A ...... 8 Brazil (BRA) ...... 9 Mexico (MEX) ...... 11 Croatia (CRO) ...... 13 Cameroon (CMR) ...... 15 GROUP B ...... 17 Spain (ESP) ...... 18 Chile (CHI) ...... 20 Netherlands (NED) ...... 22 Australia (AUS) ...... 24 GROUP C ...... 26 Colombia (COL) ...... 27 Greece (GRE) ...... 29 Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) ...... 31 Japan (JPN) ...... 33 GROUP D ...... 35 Uruguay (URU) ...... 36 Italy (ITA) ...... 38 England (ENG) ...... 40 Costa Rica (CRC) ...... 42 GROUP E ...... 44 Switzerland (SUI) ...... 45 France (FRA) ...... 47 Ecuador (ECU) ...... 49 Honduras (HON) ...... 51 GROUP F ...... 53 Argentina (ARG) ...... 54 Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH) ...... 56 Iran (IRN) ...... 58 Nigeria (NGA) ...... 60 GROUP G ...... 62 Germany (GER) ...... 63 Portugal (POR) ...... 65 United States (USA) ...... 67 Ghana (GHA) ...... 69 GROUP H ...... 71 Belgium (BEL) ...... 72 Russia (RUS) ...... 74 Algeria (ALG)...... 76 Korea Republic (KOR) ...... 78

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GROUP A Brazil | Mexico | Croatia | Cameroon

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Brazil (BRA) Economy-USD2,243bn/ HDI-85/ FIFA-4

Will a World Cup Win Change the Nation’s Bleak Mood?

Economic Performance Country Details • Brazil, the seventh-largest economy in the world in terms of PPP, Region South America will host the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and Olympic Games in 2016 – Currency Real events which generally boost growth driven by investment in Area Sq. Km. 8,514,877 requisite infrastructure. However, growth in Brazil‘s economy has Population Mn 198.3 slowed significantly over the past few years, decelerating to 2.3% Urban Population % 84.9 y/y in 2013 compared with 7.5% in 2010. Reforms, including tax Urban Population Growth % 1.1 cuts and increased public spending, have not been able to revive Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban the economy. population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively • According to Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

inflation rose to 6.15% in March 2014, led by hike in basic food Trade Balance 2013 items. The inflation rate remained well above the minimum target level of 4.5% and marginally below the 6.5% upper range set by Import USD bn 334 Brazilian authorities. To tackle the situation, the central bank Export USD bn 280 increased the benchmark interest rate to 11%, its highest level in Balance USD bn (54) two years. However, BBVA expects inflation to breach 6.5% by the Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include middle of 2014. merchandise and commercial services

• Brazil‘s fiscal deficit in 2013 reached BRL157.6 billion, the biggest Economic Indicators year-end deficit since 2002. However, the widening gap could not resonate with the country‘s economic growth. Furthermore, Brazil‘s 2012 2013 2014e gross debt reached BRL2,817 billion in February 2014, amounting GDP (USD bn) 2,248 2,243 2,216 to 57.5% of GDP. The government announced budget cuts of GDP/capita (USD) 11,437 11,311 11,080 around BRL44 billion in February 2014 to contain public debt and Unemployment (%) 5.5 5.4 5.6 curb inflation. CPI 3,603.5 3,833.1 NA • Despite hosting the World Cup, Brazil‘s economic growth would be Source: IMF data and estimates, IBGE; Note: GDP slow in 2014. The IMF now projects Brazil‘s economy to grow 1.8% is in nominal terms in 2014 compared with an earlier estimate of 2.3%, citing weak infrastructure and low private investment as primary reasons. S&P Economic Growth downgraded Brazil‘s rating to BBB- in March 2014, one notch 1.25 9.0 above junk, due to slow growth and rising debt levels. Political Structure 1.20 6.0 • Brazil is a federal presidential democratic republic, where the president is the head of state and government. The current 1.15 In In % President Dilma Rousseff became Brazil‘s first woman president in BRL tn 3.0 2011. She would seek a second term in October 2014. 1.10

• Brazil is a member of the UN, BRIC, G-20, and Mercosur. 1.05 0.0 Socio-economic Background 2010 2012 2014e

• Brazil is the fifth-largest country in terms of population. IBGE Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) estimates Brazil‘s population to have crossed 200 million in 2013. Source: IMF data and estimates The country‘s population is expected to reach 228.4 million in

2042, with an average life expectancy of more than 80 years. Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 191.5 193.3 194.9 196.5 198.3 Growth (%) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 (1.5) GDP/Capita Growth (%) 5.8 15.3 8.9 5.2 9.2

Government Revenue 484 600 651 710 772 In % (2.2) (2.1) Government Expenditure 529 645 697 762 840 (3.0) (2.4) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 32.3 32.4 NA NA NA FDI Inflows 26 49 67 65 NA (3.6) (3.6) PPP (BRL/USD) 1.63 1.74 1.83 1.88 2.00 (4.5) 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr BRL/USD average exchange rate of 0.43 from Oanda

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2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Brazil ranked first among the 10 CONMEBOL members, Player DoB Club Caps Goals as per the May 2014 FIFA/Coca-Cola Rankings. At the Goalkeepers top of the Brazilian football league system is the annual Brazilian football club tournament – Campeonato Júlio César* 03-Sep-79 Toronto 78 0 Brasileiro Série A. Cruzeiro ranked first among the 20 Jefferson 02-Jan-83 Botafogo 9 0 clubs that participated in Série A during the 2013 Victor 21-Jan-83 Atlético Mineiro 6 0 season. Defenders • Brazil is the most successful national team at the FIFA David Luiz 22-Apr-87 Chelsea 34 0 World Cup, winning the title five times (1958, 1962, Dante 18-Oct-83 Bayern München 11 2 1970, 1994, and 2002) and finishing second twice Thiago Silva (c) 22-Sep-84 Paris St-Germain 45 2 (1950 and 1998). Moreover, Brazil is the only country to have participated in every edition of the World Cup. Marcelo 12-May-88 Real Madrid 29 4 As a host nation, it is a clear favorite to win this year‘s Dani Alves 06-May-83 Barcelona 72 5 tournament. Of the 19 World Cups so far, 6 Henrique 14-Oct-86 Napoli 4 0 tournaments have been won by the host country. Maicon 26-Jul-81 Roma 70 7 However, Brazil is not part of that list. Maxwell 27-Aug-81 Paris St-Germain 7 0 • At the 2010 World Cup, in the group stage, Brazil won Midfielders two games and drew the match against Portugal. The Oscar 09-Sep-91 Chelsea 29 9 team defeated Korea and Côte d'Ivoire by 2-1 and 3-1, respectively. Brazil claimed its third World Cup victory Ramires 24-Mar-87 Chelsea 41 4 over Chile in the round of 16 by a comfortable margin Paulinho 25-Jul-88 Tottenham 25 5 of 3-0 to face the Netherlands in the quarter-final, Luiz Gustavo 23-Jul-87 Wolfsburg 17 1 which it lost by 1-2. Fernandinho 04-May-85 Man. City 6 1 • Brazil was one of the top five scorers of the tournament Willian 09-Aug-88 Chelsea 5 1 with nine goals. Luis Fabiano was the highest scorer for Hernanes 29-May-85 Internazionale 23 2 the team, scoring three times, followed by Elano. Forwards • Carlos Caetano Bledorn Verri, popularly known as Fred 03-Oct-83 Fluminense 31 16 Dunga, was the coach of the national team during the 2010 World Cup, but he was dismissed following the Bernard 08-Sep-92 Shakhtar Donetsk 10 1 team‘s dismal performance. The current coach Luiz Neymar 05-Feb-92 Barcelona 47 30 Felipe Scolari had previously led the team to victory Hulk 25-Jul-86 Zenit 33 8 during the 2002 FIFA World Cup and the last year‘s Jô 20-Mar-87 Atlético Mineiro 15 5 Confederations Cup - Brazil defeated Spain in that final. Coach: Luiz Felipe Scolari Scolari's favorite formation is known to be a flexible 4-

2-3-1. Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes • The Brazilian team could be difficult to beat at captain; *César is on loan from QPR home. Striker Neymar would play a key role during the World Cup, supported by Hulk, defenders Dani Alves, David Luiz and Thiago Silva, and veteran goal keeper Júlio César. • Brazil is the strongest contender to win the championship. According to BSports’s StatsInsights, Brazil has more than 20% chance of winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup, clearly reflecting the advantage of playing on home soil.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 5 Goals For: 9 Goals Against: 4

Arena de Sao Paulo, Sao 12 June 17:00 Paulo Croatia 1 Estadio Castelao, 17 June 16:00 Won Fortaleza Mexico Drawn Estadio Nacional, 1 3 23 June 17:00 Lost Brasilia Cameroon

Source: fifa.com

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Mexico (MEX) Economy-USD1,259bn/ HDI-61/ FIFA-19

Economy and Football Going from Strength to Strength

Economic Performance Country Details • Officially known as United Mexican States, Mexico is Latin Region Central America America‘s second-largest economy. The country‘s economic growth Currency Mexican Peso slowed down to 1.1% in 2013 compared with the average growth Area Sq. Km. 1,964,375 of 4.3% during 2010–12, led by weakness in exports and major Population Mn 118.4 contraction in the construction sector. Urban Population % 78.4 • In 2013, annual inflation stood at 3.97%, toward the higher end of Urban Population Growth % 1.2 the central bank‘s 2–4% target range. However, in March 2014, inflation eased to 3.76% after soaring to a seven-month high of Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban population and growth thereof corresponds to 4.48% in January 2014, on introduction of new taxes. The bank 2012 and 2010–15, respectively expects inflation to remain within the target range in 2014. • The economy is likely to benefit from the structural reforms Trade Balance 2013 initiated by President Enrique Peña Nieto. Key reforms focus on Import USD bn 419 energy, financial, education, and telecommunication sectors along Export USD bn 400 with fiscal, labor, and governance and transparency issues. The government has allocated MXN7.7 billion toward its National Balance USD bn (19) Infrastructure Program 2014–18. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services • Mexico is the second-largest tourist destination in North America,

with tourism being one of the key sectors driving economic growth. Economic Indicators The government plans to spend MXN180 billion to turn the country into a global leader in the tourism industry. 2012 2013 2014e • The government expects steady economic performance in 2014, GDP (USD bn) 1,184 1,259 1,288 driven by expected increase in public spending and greater GDP/capita (USD) 10,111 10,630 10,767 external demand due to recovery in the US market. The IMF Unemployment (%) 5.0 4.9 4.5 estimates the economy to grow at 3% in 2014. CPI 105.2 109.2 113.6 • Moody‘s upgraded Mexico‘s rating to A3 from Baa1 with a stable Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in outlook, making it the second Latin American country after Chile nominal terms with an A rating. Moody‘s raised the rating on account of improved growth prospects led by the economic reforms. Economic Growth Political Structure 14.00 6.0 • Mexico is a federal constitutional republic where the president is the head of state and government. 13.00 4.0 • It is a member of various organizations, including the G-15, G-20,

NAFTA, OECD, APEC, UN, and WTO. In %

MXN MXN tn 12.00 2.0 Socio-economic Background • According to Demographia (May 2014 edition), Mexico City is the ninth-largest urban agglomeration in the world. 11.00 0.0 2010 2012 2014e • In 2012, Mexico ranked 61st on the World Bank‘s Human Development Index (HDI) and is characterized as an upper middle- Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS)

income country. Source: IMF data and estimates

Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 112.6 114.3 115.7 117.1 118.4 (0.3) Growth (%) 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 (1.0) GDP/Capita Growth (%) (2.9) 8.2 8.1 6.0 2.0 (1.1)

Government Revenue 202 226 252 277 284 In % (1.2) Government Expenditure 249 269 289 320 331 (2.0) (1.8) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 17.4 18.9 19.7 NA NA (1.9) FDI Inflows 17 23 24 15 NA PPP (MXN/USD) 8.03 8.29 8.55 8.68 8.72 (3.0) Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA 2010 2012 2014e

Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr MXN/USD average exchange rate of 0.08 from Oanda

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Officially known as Liga Bancomer MX, the Primera Player DoB Club Caps Goals División is the highest professional football league in Goalkeepers Mexico. As of May 2014, Mexico ranked second among Alfredo Talavera 18-Sep-82 Toluca 13 0 the CONCACAF countries. Contested by 18 clubs, Cruz José Corona 26-Jan-81 Cruz Azul 32 0 Azul topped the 1a División 2014 Clau table. Guillermo Ochoa 13-Jul-85 Ajaccio 54 0 • In its last fourteen World Cup appearances, Mexico has Defenders qualified for the quarter-finals only twice – 1970 and Francisco Rodríguez 20-Oct-81 América 90 1 1986 – both the times on home ground. On every other Miguel Layún 25-Jun-88 América 10 0 occasion, including the World Cup in South Africa 2010, it was eliminated in the round of 16. Despite being a Rafael Márquez (c) 13-Feb-79 Guadalajara 120 15 regional football powerhouse, El Tri, as the team is Paul Aguilar 06-Mar-86 América 26 3 nicknamed, won only two of its 10 qualifying games, Andrés Guardado 28-Sep-86 Bayer Leverkusen 98 14 finishing fourth in the final CONCACAF six-nation group Héctor Moreno 17-Jan-88 Espanyol 50 1 phase. Mexico appeared in a play-off against New Diego Reyes 19-Sep-92 Porto 12 0 Zealand and qualified for its sixth consecutive World Carlos Salcido 02-Apr-80 Tigres 117 10 Cup after defeating New Zealand. Midfielders Carlos Peña 29-Mar-90 León 13 2 • In the 2010 FIFA World Cup, the team‘s performance was dismal as it lost more matches than it won. Mexico Isaác Brizuela 28-Aug-90 Toluca 5 0 was grouped with Uruguay, France, and the host Marco Fabián 21-Jul-89 Cruz Azul 11 3 country South Africa. It faced South Africa in the Miguel Ponce 12-Apr-89 Toluca 5 0 opening match of the tournament, which ended in a 1-1 Javier Aquino 11-Feb-90 Villarreal 21 0 draw. El Tri qualified for the next round following a 2-0 Héctor Herrera 19-Apr-90 Porto 10 0 victory over France. However, it lost two successive José Juan Vázquez 14-Mar-88 León 2 0 matches, the third group stage match against Uruguay Forwards (0-1) and the round-of-16 match against Argentina (1- Alan Pulido 08-Mar-91 UANL 3 4 3). With this, Argentina claimed its second round-of-16 Raúl Jiménez 05-May-91 América 21 4 victory over Mexico in FIFA World Cup. Giovani dos Santos 11-May-89 Villarreal 71 14 • Out of the four goals scored by Mexico in the Javier Hernández 01-Jun-88 Man. United 58 35 tournament, striker Javier Hernández scored two and Oribe Peralta 12-Jan-84 Santos Laguna 26 16 Rafael Márquez and Cuauhtemoc Blanco scored one Coach: Miguel Herrera goal each. Source: fifa.com, bbc.com, Guadalajara official website; Note: Current squad consists of players included in the final 2014 World • The Mexican team was coached by Javier Aguirre, Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes captain popularly known as El Vasco, for the 2010 championship. He resigned after the tournament. Current national coach Miguel Herrera, nicknamed Piojo, replaced Víctor Manuel Vucetich in October 2013, making him team‘s fourth coach in less than two months. He prefers the attack-minded 3-5-2 formation. • After constant coaching changes, it is highly difficult to predict as to how the team would perform. However, key El Tri players would be Javier Hernández, Rafael Márquez and Giovani dos Santos, as well as young players such as Oribe Peralta, Raúl Jiménez, and Carlos Peña. • Mexico is expected to qualify for the round of 16, but is less likely to make it any further, according to BSports’s estimates.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 4 Goals For: 4 Goals Against: 5

13 June 13:00 Estadio das Dunas, Natal Cameroon

1 Estadio Castelao, 17 June 16:00 Won Fortaleza Brazil 2 Drawn Arena Pernambuco, 23 June 17:00 Lost Recife Croatia 1

Source: fifa.com

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Croatia (CRO) Economy-USD58bn/ HDI-47/ FIFA-20

Facing a Prolonged Economic and Footballing crisis

Economic Performance Country Details • The Republic of Croatia was adversely impacted by the 2008 Region Southern Europe financial crisis. Consequently, the country‘s economy shrunk Currency Kuna almost 12% relative to the 2008 level. Croatia entered the fifth Area Sq. Km. 56,594 year of recession in 2013, as the real GDP contracted 1% y/y, led Population Mn 4.3 by a decline in exports and manufacturing. Domestic demand Urban Population % 58.1 remains subdued as households and corporations focus on Urban Population Growth % 0.4 reducing excessive debt levels. Moreover, FDI remains depressed Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban and stood at EUR530 million for 9M13 compared with EUR1.1 population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 billion during 9M11. and 2010–15, respectively

• Resulting from persistent recession, Croatia‘s unemployment rate Trade Balance 2013 stood at 21.1% in April 2014, with youth unemployment at over 40%, one of the highest in Europe. To ensure sustained growth, Import USD bn 25 government needs to address labor market rigidity and improve Export USD bn 25 business environment. Balance USD bn (0) • In July 2013, Croatia became the 28th member state of the EU. So Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services far, Croatia‘s accession to the EU has not benefitted the country as

expected. Nonetheless, foreign investment as well as tourism is Economic Indicators likely to increase, in addition to access to European funds. However, Croatia is currently under the EU‘s excessive deficit 2012 2013 2014e procedure (EDP), as its estimated fiscal deficit is above 3%. In GDP (USD bn) 56 58 60 2013, the country‘s deficit and debt were around 5.5% and 60% GDP/capita (USD) 13,119 13,562 13,961 of GDP, respectively, as per IMF estimates. Unemployment (%) 16.1 16.5 16.8 • The IMF forecasts Croatia‘s economy to contract further (almost CPI 105.8 108.1 108.6 1%) in 2014. While domestic demand and fiscal consolidation are Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in likely to remain weak, exports would improve due to an expected nominal terms

uptick in activity in the Eurozone. In March 2014, Moody‘s lowered Croatia‘s Ba1 rating outlook to negative from stable owing to an Economic Growth unfavorable economic outlook. 0.28 2.0 Political Structure • Croatia is a parliamentary representative democratic republic, 0.27 0.0 where the Prime Minister (presently, Zoran Milanović) is the head

of the government. Executive power is exercised by the President In % HRK HRK tn 0.26 (2.0) and the government. • The country is a member of various organizations, including the EU, UN, Council of Europe, NATO, and WTO. 0.25 (4.0) 2010 2012 2014e Socio-economic Background th Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) • In 2012, Croatia ranked very high (47 ) on the World Bank‘s Human Development Index (HDI). Source: IMF data and estimates

Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary 1.5 USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2.0 1.2 Population (mn) 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 0.0 Growth (%) (0.2) (0.3) (0.2) 0.0 0.0 (0.0) GDP/Capita Growth (%) (4.1) (1.2) 1.7 (0.1) 0.1 (0.9)

In In % (2.0) (1.2) Government Revenue 23 22 22 23 22 Government Expenditure 25 25 25 25 26 (4.0) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 19.4 19.2 18.4 NA NA FDI Inflows 4 1 1 1 1* (6.0) PPP (HRK/USD) 4.26 4.24 4.24 4.24 4.22 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, Indexmundi, Croatian National Bank; Note: Source: IMF data and estimates GDP/capita growth is in nominal terms; Government revenue and expenditure, and FDI inflows are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr HRK/USD and EUR/USD average exchange rate of 0.18 and 1.37, respectively, from Oanda; *Estimated

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2006 World Cup Performance Roundup Current Squad

• Prva HNL or 1. HNL is the highest football league Player DoB Club Caps Goals championship in Croatia. Officially known as MAXtv Goalkeepers Prva Liga, it ranked 20th among European countries, Stipe Pletikosa 08-Jan-79 Rostov 109 0 according to the UEFA‘s league coefficients. Contested Danijel Subašić 27-Oct-84 Monaco 6 0 by 10 teams, Dinamo Zagreb topped the league in the 2013–14 season. Oliver Zelenika 14-May-93 Lokomotiva 0 0 Defenders • Croatia has made three appearances at the World Cup Vedran Ćorluka 05-Feb-86 Lokomotiv Moscow 71 4 since it separated from Yugoslavia in 1990. In its Dejan Lovren 05-Jul-89 Southampton 24 2 maiden tournament, held in France in 1998, the team Danijel Pranjić 02-Dec-81 Panathinaikos 49 0 finished third. In subsequent World Cup finals (2002 and 2006), it was eliminated at the group stage. G. Schildenfeld 18-Mar-85 Panathinaikos 20 0 Croatia could not qualify for the 2010 tournament. Darijo Srna (c) 01-May-82 Shakhtar Donetsk 111 21 Domagoj Vida 29-Apr-89 Dynamo Kyiv 21 1 • In 2006, Croatia was placed with Brazil, Australia, and Japan. The team played three matches in the Šime Vrsaljko 10-Jan-92 Genoa 5 0 tournament, of which it lost in one and the other two Midfielders ended in stalemate. Croatia started on a losing note, in Marcelo Brozović 16-Nov-92 Dinamo Zagreb 0 0 its opening match to Brazil 0-1. The team managed Mateo Kovačić 06-May-94 Internazionale 8 0 draws against Japan (0-0) and Australia (2-2). The Ivan Močinić 30-Apr-93 Rijeka 0 0 indifferent performance led to the elimination at the Luka Modrić 09-Sep-85 Real Madrid 73 8 group stage for the second time. Ivan Perišić 02-Feb-89 Wolfsburg 27 1 • Zlatko Kranjcar guided the Croatian national team Ivan Rakitić 10-Mar-88 Sevilla 60 9 during the 2006 World Cup. However, he was replaced Sammir 23-Apr-87 Getafe 4 0 following the team‘s disappointing performance in the Ognjen Vukojević 20-Dec-83 Dynamo Kyiv 54 4 tournament. Niko Kovač, who captained the team in Forwards 2006, is the current national coach. Croatia has a Eduardo 25-Feb-83 Shakhtar Donetsk 61 29 strong midfield, and Kovač could employ a 4-2-3-1 or Nikica Jelavić 27-Aug-85 Hull City 31 5 4-3-3 formation at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Mario Mandžukić 21-May-86 Bayern München 48 13 • Some of the key players to watch out for are Ivica Olić 14-Sep-79 Wolfsburg 90 18 Captain and defender Darijo Srna, midfielders Ante Rebić 21-Sep-93 Fiorentina 3 1 Luka Modrić, Ivan Rakitić, and Mateo Kovačić, and Coach: Niko Kovač forwards Eduardo, Ivica Olić, Nikica Jelavić, and Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of Mario Mandžukić. players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes • Croatia is in a tough group with the tournament’s captain favorites Brazil, Cameroon, and Mexico. According to BSports’s StatsInsights, the team has the third highest (38.3%) chance, after Brazil and Mexico, of making it to the top 16. Barring any major upset, we don’t expect Croatia to make it to the round of 16.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2006 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 2 Goals Against: 3

Arena de Sao Paulo, Sao 12 June 17:00 Paulo Brazil

Arena Amazonia, 18 June 18:00 1 Won Manaus Cameroon Drawn Arena Pernambuco, 23 June 17:00 Lost Recife Mexico 2

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 14 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Cameroon (CMR) Economy-USD28bn/ HDI-150/ FIFA-50

Underachieving – Both Economy and the Team

Economic Performance Country Details • Rich in natural resources, Cameroon, the ‗hinge of Africa‘, is the Region Central Africa largest economy in the six-nation Central African Economic and Currency CFA Franc Monetary Community (CEMAC) bloc. The IMF estimates Area Sq. Km. 475,650 Cameroon‘s economy grew at a real rate of 5.5% in 2013, up from Population Mn 22.0 4.6% in 2012, driven by sustained infrastructure investment and Urban Population % 52.7 strong performances by the oil & gas and tertiary sectors. This is Urban Population Growth % 3.2 well below the government‘s and CEMAC‘s forecast of 6.1% and Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban 6.7%, respectively. However, the economy would need to expand population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 at a much higher pace for the country to achieve an ―emerging and 2010–15, respectively nation‖ status by 2035 as envisaged by the government‘s Vision 2035. Trade Balance 2013 • Inflation remained low and within CEMAC‘s threshold at 2.1% in Import USD bn 9 2013, according to IMF estimates. Meanwhile, Cameroon‘s Export USD bn 6 unemployment levels remain structurally high at over 50%, Balance USD bn (3) according to market sources. Moreover, the IMF estimates Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include Cameroon‘s fiscal deficit expanded to 4.1% of GDP in 2013 from merchandise and commercial services; Merchandise exports and imports are only for East 2.5% in 2012. This can be ascribed to a rise in investment Cameroon expenditure and fuel subsidies. The fiscal gap is likely to widen to 5.7% in 2015. Economic Indicators • Cameroon‘s business environment needs to improve significantly 2012 2013 2014e th to attract private investment. It ranked 168 in the World Bank‘s GDP (USD bn) 25 28 31 2014 Doing Business report (161st in 2013 edition). GDP/capita (USD) 1,181 1,271 1,370 • The IMF expects GDP growth to stabilize at about 5.5% in 2014, Unemployment (%) NA NA NA led by higher oil production, sustained capital expenditure, and CPI 227.4 232.0 237.8 strong domestic demand. Moreover, in December 2013, Fitch Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in affirmed Cameroon‘s B rating with a stable outlook. nominal terms Political Structure • Cameroon is a unitary presidential republic where the president is Economic Growth (real) the head of state and government. Paul Biya, one of Africa‘s 11.50 6.0 longest-serving presidents, has been in power since November 1982. 10.50 5.0 • Cameroon is a member of various organizations, including the UN, African Union, CEMAC, and WTO. In In % XAF tn Socio-economic Background 9.50 4.0 • Poverty, income inequality, and corruption remain key challenges. Cameroon has been unable to channelize its economic growth to 8.50 3.0 reduce poverty levels, which have stagnated at around 40% since 2010 2012 2014e 2001. Transparency International ranked Cameroon the 144th Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) most corrupt country among 177 on its Corruption Perception Index 2013. Source: IMF data and estimates

Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.5 22.0 Growth (%) 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 (2.0) GDP/Capita Growth (%) (4.2) 3.8 5.3 4.9 4.2

Government Revenue 4 4 5 5 5 In % (3.0) (2.9) Government Expenditure 4 4 5 6 7 (4.0) (3.5) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) NA NA NA NA NA (4.0) (4.4) FDI Inflows 1 1 0 1 NA (6.0) PPP (XAF/USD) 246.48 250.84 255.11 257.71 259.12 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, UNCTAD; note: GDP/capita growth is in Source: IMF data and estimates

nominal terms; government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr XAF/USD average exchange rate of 0.002 from Oanda

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The Championnat du Cameroun de football is the Player DoB Club Caps Goals highest division of association football clubs in Goalkeepers Cameroon. Officially known as MTN Elite One, the Loïc Feudjou 14-Apr-92 Coton Sport 0 0 league comprises 14 clubs. Coton Sport FC ranked first Charles Itandje 02-Nov-82 Konyaspor 7 0 during the 2013 season. Sammy N'Djock 25-Feb-90 Fethiyespor 1 0 • Cameroon has qualified for seven World Cups (including Defenders Brazil 2014), the highest by any African team. The Benoit Assou-Ekotto 24-Mar-84 QPR 20 0 team, popularly known as the Indomitable Lions, Henri Bedimo 04-Jun-84 Lyon 28 0 delivered its finest performance in Italy 1990, when it Aurélien Chedjou 20-Jun-85 Galatasaray 29 1 reached the quarter-finals, becoming the continent‘s first country to do so. In all the following World Cups – Cedric Djeugoue 28-Aug-92 Coton Sport 1 0 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2010 – and its debut tournament Nicolas N'Koulou 27-Mar-90 Marseille 44 0 in 1982, the team exited in the group stage. Dany Nounkeu 11-Apr-86 Beşiktaş 13 0 • The Indomitable Lions could not score a single point Allan Nyom 10-May-88 Granada 6 0 from the three matches it played during the 2010 World Midfielders Cup. Hence, the country was ranked 31st, just behind Eyong Enoh 23-Mar-86 Antalyaspor 32 2 North Korea, among 32 countries that participated in Jean Makoun 29-May-83 Rennes 67 5 the tournament. Cameroon could not live up to Joël Matip 08-Aug-91 Schalke 04 19 0 expectations, losing all three group-stage matches. In Stéphane Mbia* 20-May-86 Sevilla 48 3 its opening match against Japan, the Indomitable Lions Landry N'Guémo 28-Nov-85 Bordeaux 37 2 lost 0-1. Subsequently, the team was defeated by Edgar Salli 17-Aug-92 Lens 7 0 Denmark and Netherlands with the same score line (1- Alex Song 09-Sep-87 Barcelona 43 0 2). Forwards • Current captain Samuel Eto‘o scored the team‘s two Vincent Aboubakar 22-Jan-92 Lorient 23 2 goals. He gave Cameroon a lead in the match against Eric Choupo-Moting 23-Mar-89 Mainz 05 23 10 Denmark by netting his first goal. However, Denmark Samuel Eto'o (c) 10-Mar-81 Chelsea 113 54 defeated Cameroon by scoring the winning goal in the Benjamin Moukandjo 12-Nov-88 Nancy 13 2 st 61 minute. Eto‘s next goal came against the Dutch. Fabrice Olinga 12-May-96 Zulte Waregem 5 1 • Paul Le Guen coached the Indomitable Lions during the Pierre Webó 20-Jan-82 Fenerbahçe 52 18 2010 World Cup. However, he resigned in June 2010 Coach: Volker Finke after Cameroon became the first team to exit the World Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of Cup. In May 2013, Volker Finke was named the national players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes coach. He had managed German football club SC captain; *Mbia is on loan from QPR Freiburg for 16 years (1991–2007). • Samuel Eto’o, who plays his fourth and probably last World Cup in 2014, would remain a threat up front. Supporting him would be midfielders Alex Song, Jean Makoun, and Stéphane Mbia, while Nicolas N'Koulou, Benoit Assou-Ekotto, and Aurélien Chedjou would be their main defenders. • The team is likely to be eliminated at the group stage. According to BSports’s StatsInsights, it has the lowest chance of qualifying for the round of 16 among the group countries.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 2 Goals Against: 5

13 June 13:00 Estadio das Dunas, Natal Mexico Won Arena Amazonia, 18 June 18:00 Drawn Manaus Croatia Lost Estadio Nacional, 23 June 17:00 Brasilia Brazil 3

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 16 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

GROUP B Spain | Chile | Netherlands | Australia

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 17 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Spain (ESP) Economy-USD1,359bn/ HDI-23/ FIFA-1

Reigning Champion – Rising from Crisis

Economic Performance Country Details • Spain, the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone, started Region Southern Europe displaying signs of recovery after it slipped into recession in 3Q08. Currency Euro The economy registered growth for two consecutive quarters – Area Sq. Km. 505,992 3Q13 and 4Q13. Spain‘s economy grew 0.3% in 4Q13, highest q/q Population Mn 46.6 increase in five years. However, on annual basis, the economy Urban Population % 77.6 shrank 1.2% y/y in 2013. Urban Population Growth % 1.0 • Unemployment continues to be the biggest challenge for Spain. Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban The labor market reforms introduced in February 2012 to tackle population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively the situation resulted in a 0.3% q/q increase in seasonally

adjusted employment rate in 4Q13 (for the first time since 2009). Trade Balance 2013 • Debt levels remain exceptionally high - as of February 2014, public Import USD bn 430 debt stood at EUR988 billion, equivalent to approximately 95% of the annual GDP. Debt levels rose due to bad real estate debt Export USD bn 460 following the collapse of the property market. However, ongoing Balance USD bn 30 financial sector reforms have helped banks to recognize losses and Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services clean up their balance sheets.

• Inflation levels remain low - it stood at -0.15% in March 2014. Economic Indicators Separately, the downtrend in consumer prices reflects the

absorption of VAT rate hike in September 2012. 2012 2013 2014e • Growth outlook for Spain is stronger as the IMF estimates GDP to GDP (USD bn) 1,323 1,359 1,415 rise 0.9% and 1% during 2014 and 2015, respectively. Moreover, GDP/capita (USD) 28,294 29,150 30,432 in December 2013, Moody‘s upgraded the country‘s credit rating Unemployment (%) 25.0 26.4 25.5 outlook to Stable from Negative. CPI 119.2 121.0 121.3 Political Structure Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in • Spain is a parliamentary monarchy - the monarch is the head of nominal terms state, while the ―president of the government‖ (prime minister equivalent) holds the executive power. On December 20, 2011, Economic Growth Mariano Rajoy was elected ―president of the government‖. 1.06 2.0 • Spain is a member of the EU, UN, NATO, OECD, and WTO. 1.04 Socio-economic Background 0.0 • Spain‘s population is expected to decline 5.6% in the next decade. 1.02 In % Mortality rate is projected to exceed the birth rate by 2017. EUR tn (2.0) Furthermore, the financial crisis has led to a negative migratory 1.00 balance. According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), two persons would leave for every immigrant. 0.98 (4.0) 2010 2012 2014e • Catalonia, home to Spain‘s second-largest city Barcelona, is seeking independence from the country. Accordingly, Catalan Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS)

President Artur Mas is likely to hold a self-determination referendum in November 2014, which was ruled unconstitutional Source: IMF data and estimates by the Constitutional Court of Spain in March 2014. Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary 2.0 USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.7 0.8 Population (mn) 46.4 46.6 46.7 46.8 46.6 0.0 Growth (%) 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 (0.3) GDP/Capita Growth (%) (4.6) (0.5) (0.3) (1.7) (0.3) (1.1) In % (2.0) Government Revenue 505 527 520 525 533 Government Expenditure 665 665 658 676 634 (4.0) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 30.9 32.5 32.2 32.9 NA (3.8) FDI Inflows 10 40 27 27 NA (4.5) PPP (EUR/USD) 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.74 (6.0) 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA 12.3 NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr EUR/USD average exchange rate of 1.37 from Oanda

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Officially named Liga BBVA, La Liga or the Primera Player DoB Club Caps Goals División is the highest professional football division of Goalkeepers the Spanish football league system. It currently ranks Iker Casillas (c) 20-May-81 Real Madrid 153 0 first in Europe, according to the UEFA‘s league Pepe Reina 31-Aug-82 Napoli 31 0 coefficient ranking. In the 2013–14 season, Atlético Madrid topped the 20 clubs that participated in La Liga, David de Gea 07-Nov-90 Man. United 0 0 followed by Barcelona and Real Madrid. Defenders Raúl Albiol 04-Sep-85 Napoli 45 0 • Spain registered it‘s first-ever win at the finals of a FIFA Juanfran 09-Jan-85 Atlético Madrid 7 1 World Cup in 2010, defeating the Netherlands with a scoreline of 1-0. Spain became the eighth nation to win Sergio Ramos 30-Mar-86 Real Madrid 115 9 the Cup, led by Barcelona midfielder Andrés Iniesta‘s Jordi Alba 21-Mar-89 Barcelona 25 5 winning goal in the 116th minute. Javi Martínez 02-Sep-88 Bayern München 15 0 César Azpilicueta 28-Aug-89 Chelsea 5 0 • During the 2010 World Cup, Spain lost the first game to Gerard Piqué 02-Feb-87 Barcelona 59 4 Switzerland before winning the next two games at the Midfielders group stage. In the round of 16, Spain defeated Koke 08-Jan-92 Atlético Madrid 7 0 Portugal by 1-0 to face Paraguay in the quarter-finals. Andrés Iniesta 11-May-84 Barcelona 95 11 After winning the quarter-final by 1-0, Spain defeated Xavi Hernández 25-Jan-80 Barcelona 130 12 Germany in the semi-final, again by 1-0. Cesc Fàbregas 04-May-87 Barcelona 87 13 • Spain won the World Cup with eight goals, the Xabi Alonso 25-Nov-81 Real Madrid 109 15 fewest goals scored by a World Cup-winning Sergi Busquets 16-Jul-88 Barcelona 64 0 team. Captain Iker Casillas, one of the world‘s finest Santi Cazorla 13-Dec-84 Arsenal 62 11 keepers, received the Adidas Golden Glove for the best Juan Mata 28-Apr-88 Man. United 32 9 goalkeeper. Notable performances were displayed by David Silva 08-Jan-86 Man. City 78 20 pass-master Xavi Hernández and leading scorer David Forwards Villa. Villa scored five of the team‘s eight goals. Pedro Rodríguez 28-Jul-87 Barcelona 38 14 • Spain uses the tiki-taka style, characterized by short Diego Costa 07-Oct-88 Atlético Madrid 3 0 passing and maintaining possession while awaiting the Fernando Torres 20-Mar-84 Chelsea 106 36 chance to strike. The team is coached by Vicente Del David Villa 03-Dec-81 Atlético Madrid 95 56 Bosque who took over from Luis Aragones following the Coach: Vicente Del Bosque Euro 2008 win. Del Bosque is known to rely strongly Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of upon midfielders. He has also led Spain to victory in the players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes European Championships hosted in 2012. captain • Players to watch out for during the 2014 World Cup would be Sergio Ramos, Jordi Alba, Pedro, Cesc Fàbregas and Álvaro Negredo, in addition to the keeper and captain Iker Casillas. • According to BSports’s StatInsights, the reigning world and European champion stands a 46.8% chance of qualifying to the quarter-finals and a 9.2% chance of winning the championship, after Brazil, Germany and Argentina in 2014.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 7 Goals For: 8 Goals Against: 2

Arena Fonte Nova, 13 June 16:00 Salvador Netherlands 1 Estádio do Maracanã, 18 June 16:00 Won Rio De Janeiro Chile Drawn Arena da Baixada, 23 June 13:00 Curitiba Australia Lost 6 Source: fifa.com

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 19 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Chile (CHI) Economy-USD277bn/ HDI-40/ FIFA-13

Strong Economy and a Strong Team – Placed in a Tough Group

Economic Performance Country Details • The Republic of Chile is one of Latin America‘s fastest growing Region South America economies, with an average growth rate of 4.8% over the last 20 Currency Chilean Peso years. The growth decelerated from 5.6% in 2012 to 4.2% in Area Sq. Km. 756,102 2013. According to the Central Bank, IMACEC (Chilean indicator of Population Mn 17.6 economic activity) expanded 2.4% y/y during 1Q14, the lowest Urban Population % 89.3 since 2010, due to weak investment and consumer spending. Urban Population Growth % 1.1 • Decline in copper prices and China‘s slowing economy pose Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban significant threat to the Chilean economy as copper comprises population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively 52% of the country‘s exports, with China alone accounting for

about 38% of its total copper exports. Chilean Copper Commission Trade Balance 2013 expects prices to average around USD3.15/pound and USD3.0/pound in 2014 and 2015, respectively, which could have Import USD bn 95 an adverse impact on exports. Meanwhile, the expected slowdown Export USD bn 90 in demand from China would further worsen the situation. Balance USD bn (5) • Chilean peso depreciated approximately 9% over 2013 and a Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services further 5% in 1Q14, led by decline in copper prices and interest

rate cuts by the Central Bank. As a result, annual inflation stood at Economic Indicators 3.5% in March 2014. However, the Central Bank of Chile expects inflation to settle at 3%, within its target range of 2–4%. 2012 2013 2014e • The IMF projects the Chilean economy to grow 3.6% in 2014. In GDP (USD bn) 266 277 263 October 2013, Moody‘s affirmed Chile‘s Aa3 rating with a stable GDP/capita (USD) 15,300 15,776 14,856 outlook. Unemployment (%) 6.4 5.9 6.1 Political Structure CPI 98.1 99.9 103.4 • Chile is a representative democratic republic where the president is Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in the head of state and government. The country‘s first female nominal terms president Michelle Bachelet was re-elected in March 2014 after serving as president from 2006 to 2010. She got elected for a Economic Growth second stint on promise of implementing an ambitious reforms 150.00 6.0 agenda. • Chile is a member of various organizations, including the G-15, 100.00 5.0 OECD, UN, and WTO. In In %

Socio-economic Background CLP tn 50.00 4.0 • Chile ranked the highest among OECD member countries in terms of income inequality. However, President Bachelet aims to reduce the gap between the rich and poor by introducing education, tax, 0.00 3.0 and constitutional reforms. She pledged to allocate USD15 billion 2010 2012 2014e to improve healthcare and education, and reduce inequality. Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS)

• Chile‘s HDI rank (40) is highest among Latin American countries. Moreover, Chile is at the seventh position in the 2014 Index of Source: IMF data and estimates Economic Freedom, the highest ranking developing country. Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary 3.0 USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.6 Population (mn) 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 Growth (%) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 GDP/Capita Growth (%) 1.7 14.0 8.4 5.8 5.0 In % Government Revenue 36 47 54 57 57 (1.2) Government Expenditure 43 48 51 55 58 (3.0) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 17.2 19.5 21.2 20.8 NA (3.4) (3.4) (3.3) FDI Inflows 13 14 22 29 NA (6.0) PPP (CLP/USD) 376.66 405.35 411.33 409.40 409.81 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr CLP/USD average exchange rate of 0.002 from Oanda

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 20 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Primera División is the top league division of the Player DoB Club Caps Goals Chilean football league system. The league is contested Goalkeepers by 18 clubs. Colo-Colo topped the Primera División Johnny Herrera 09-May-81 Universidad de Chile 7 0 2014 league table. Claudio Bravo (c) 13-Apr-83 Real Sociedad 78 0 • Chile participated in the World Cup tournament for the Christopher Toselli 15-Jun-88 Universidad Católica 4 0 eighth time in South Africa in 2010. However, the Defenders country has progressed beyond the group stage only Gonzalo Jara 29-Aug-85 Nottingham Forest 64 3 thrice, once when it hosted the championship in 1962 Eugenio Mena 18-Jul-88 Santos 23 3 where it secured the third place, and on two other José Rojas 23-Jun-83 Universidad de Chile 18 1 occasions, where it lost to Brazil in the round-of-16 Gary Medel 03-Aug-87 Cardiff City 59 5 match. Midfielders • The Chilean team, popularly known as La Roja, played Jean Beausejour 01-Jun-84 Wigan Athletic 59 5 four matches during the 2010 championship, including Francisco Silva 11-Feb-86 Osasuna 11 0 the round-of-16 match against Brazil. It claimed two Felipe Gutiérrez 08-Oct-90 Twente 16 1 consecutive victories at the group stage, defeating Charles Aránguiz 17-Apr-89 Internacional 19 2 Honduras and Switzerland by 1-0. The team was Arturo Vidal 22-May-87 Juventus 53 8 defeated 1-2 by Spain in the third match after it lost a Miiko Albornoz 30-Nov-90 Malmö 1 1 player due to a red card. However, it could not qualify Matías Fernández 15-May-86 Fiorentina 60 14 for the quarter-finals after Brazil claimed its third World Mauricio Isla 12-Jun-88 Juventus 45 2 Cup victory over Chile. Chile lost 0-3 to Brazil in the Marcelo Díaz 30-Dec-86 Basel 19 0 round-of-16 match. José Fuenzalida 22-Feb-85 Colo-Colo 22 1 • Rodrigo Miller, Mark Gonzalez, and Jean Beausejour Forwards scored a goal each for the team. Beausejour‘s goal led Alexis Sánchez 19-Dec-88 Barcelona 65 22 La Roja to its first victory of the tournament. Eduardo Vargas 20-Nov-89 Valencia 28 11 • The Argentine football coach Marcelo Bielsa managed Fabián Orellana 27-Jan-86 Celta 24 2 the Chilean national team during the 2010 World Cup. Mauricio Pinilla 04-Feb-84 Cagliari 24 4 Despite his popularity in the country, he resigned in Jorge Valdívia 19-Oct-83 Palmeiras 56 4 2011. In December 2012, Jorge Sampaoli was elected Esteban Paredes 01-Aug-80 Colo-Colo 34 10 the national coach after Claudio Borghi was sacked Coach: Jorge Sampaoli following the team‘s poor performance in the World Cup Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of qualifiers and international friendlies. Sampaoli is players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes known for his attacking style similar to Bielsa and led captain the team to five victories and one draw in the last 6 qualifiers. • During Brazil 2014, the Chilean players to watch out for would be world-class forward Alexis Sánchez of Barcelona, Eduardo Vargas of Valencia, Arturo Vidal of Juventus and Marcelo Díaz as well as veterans Jean Beausejour and Gary Medel. • Although playing on home continent, Chile is placed in a tough group. It still has a strong chance (48%) of qualifying to the knockout stage. We rate Chile as a dark horse in the group. However, even if Chile qualifies for the next round, its likely opponent will be Brazil once again, and chances of progress beyond that round are minimal.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 4 Goals For: 3 Goals Against: 5

13 June 18:00 Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba Australia

Estádio do Maracanã, 18 June 16:00 Won Rio De Janeiro Spain 2 2 Drawn Arena de Sao Paulo, Sao 23 June 13:00 Lost Paulo Netherlands

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 21 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Netherlands (NED) Economy-USD800bn/ HDI-4/ FIFA-15

Recovering Economy, Fading Football Team

Economic Performance Country Details • The 18th largest economy in the world, the Netherlands is projected Region Western Europe to return to growth in 2014 after two consecutive years of Currency Euro recession (2012 and 2013), led by exports and investments. Area Sq. Km. 41,540 Gradual recovery in terms of q/q growth in 2013 is expected to Population Mn 16.8 continue through 2015, with an average quarterly increase of Urban Population % 83.5 0.1% and 0.3% during 2014 and 2015, respectively. Urban Population Growth % 0.8 • The Netherlands is primarily driven by exports, which accounted Source: IMF, World Bank, UN data, CIA; Note: for 88% of GDP as of 2012. Exports increased 1.7% in 2013. Urban population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively Growing consumer and business confidence, improved outlook for

the Euro region and recovery in the US are expected to contribute to growth in world trade by 4.7% and 5.3% during in 2014 and Trade Balance 2013 2015, respectively. This would support 3.5% and 4.5% growth in Import USD bn 711 exports from the Netherlands during the same period. Export USD bn 806 • Unemployment continues to rise on reduction in output. The Balance USD bn 94 unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in 2013 from 5.3% in 2012. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services However, inflation eased from 3.2% in June to 1.3% in October

2013, as the effect of VAT rate hike disappeared. It is expected to ease further to 1% in 2014 and 2015. Also, housing prices Economic Indicators increased 0.4% in 3Q13, for the first time in the last 11 quarters. 2012 2013 2014e • The IMF expects the economy to grow 0.8% in 2014 and 1.6% in GDP (USD bn) 770 800 838 2015. In March 2014, Moody‘s raised outlook for the Aaa-rated GDP/capita (USD) 45,989 47,634 49,765 country from negative to stable, led by improving growth forecast. Unemployment (%) 5.3 6.9 7.3 Political Structure CPI 113.3 116.2 117.2 Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in • The Netherlands is a constitutional monarchy - the monarch and nominal terms the ministers constitute the government. The country is usually governed by a coalition of different political parties. Economic Growth • Mark Rutte is the current Prime Minister of the Netherlands. He was re-elected in 2012 (originally elected in 2010) following a political crisis in the country due to the collapse of the coalition between People's Party for Freedom and Democracy-Christian Democratic Appeal (with outside support from Party for Freedom) due to their differences on the austerity budget. • The country is a member of the EU, G-10, NATO, OECD, and WTO. Socio-economic Background • The Netherlands is one of the most developed countries in the world, ranking 4th in the World Bank‘s Human Development Index (HDI) for 2012. • The UNICEF ranked the country first in terms of child well-being. Source: IMF data and estimates Furthermore, it ranks 15th among 178 countries in the 2014 Index

of Economic Freedom by Heritage Foundation. Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary 12.0 USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10.4 10.1 9.5 9.4 Population (mn) 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 Growth (%) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 8.0 7.4 GDP/Capita Growth (%) (4.1) 1.8 1.6 (0.3) 0.3 In % Government Revenue 356 369 373 380 394 Government Expenditure 400 411 408 413 419 4.0 Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 38.2 38.9 38.6 NA NA FDI Inflows 39 (7) 20 12 NA 0.0 PPP (EUR/USD) 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA 3.6 NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr EUR/USD average exchange rate of 1.37 from Oanda

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 22 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

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2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Eredivisie is the top most professional football league of Player DoB Club Caps Goals the Dutch football league system. The Netherlands Goalkeepers ranked 8th among European countries, according to the Jasper Cillessen 22-Apr-89 Ajax 5 0 UEFA‘s league coefficients. Contested by 18 clubs, Ajax Michel Vorm 20-Oct-83 Swansea City 14 0 topped the league in the 2013–14 season. Tim Krul 03-Apr-88 Newcastle United 5 0 • The Netherlands faced Spain in the 2010 World Cup Defenders final, 32 years after its previous final appearance which Stefan de Vrij 05-Feb-92 Feyenoord 9 0 ended in a 3-1 defeat by Argentina. Netherlands lost Ron Vlaar 16-Feb-85 Aston Villa 22 1 after Spain scored the only goal of the tie in extra time. Terence Kongolo 14-Feb-94 Feyenoord 0 0 The match was marked by the highest number of Daryl Janmaat 22-Jul-89 Feyenoord 13 0 yellow cards given out in a FIFA World Cup championship match - Referee Howard Webb handed Joël Veltman 15-Jan-92 Ajax 1 0 nine yellow cards to Dutch players (out of the total 14), Daley Blind 09-Mar-90 Ajax 9 0 including two to John Heitinga, resulting in his dismissal Bruno M. Indi 08-Feb-92 Feyenoord 13 2 in the 109th minute. The team has lost three World Cup Paul Verhaegh 01-Sep-83 Augsburg 1 0 finals in total. Midfielders Wesley Sneijder 09-Jun-84 Galatasaray 97 26 • The Netherlands reached the World Cup final unbeaten. Jordy Clasie 27-Jun-91 Feyenoord 7 0 At the group stage, it defeated Denmark, Japan, and J. Guzmán 13-Sep-87 Swansea City 8 0 Cameroon by 2-0, 1-0, and 2-1, respectively. It qualified for the quarter-finals after defeating Slovakia Nigel de Jong 30-Nov-84 Milan 69 1 2-1. In the quarter-finals, the Netherlands defeated Leroy Fer 05-Jan-90 Norwich City 5 0 Brazil 2-1 and qualified for the final with a 3-2 win over G. Wijnaldum 11-Nov-90 PSV 3 1 Uruguay. Forwards Robin van Persie (c) 06-Aug-83 Man. United 82 41 • Wesley Sneijder was one of the leading tournament Dirk Kuyt 22-Jul-80 Fenerbahçe 98 24 scorers with five goals. Furthermore, Captain Giovanni Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 12-Aug-83 Schalke 04 60 34 van Bronckhorst‘s 40-yard goal against Uruguay was Memphis Depay 13-Feb-94 PSV 4 0 the second-best goal of the tournament. The World Cup final against Spain was Van Bronckhorst‘s final game Jeremain Lens 24-Nov-87 Dynamo Kyiv 20 7 for the Netherlands. Arjen Robben 23-Jan-84 Bayern München 73 22 Coach: Louis Van Gaal • Louis Van Gaal succeeded Bert Van Marwijk who

coached the team for the 2010 World Cup. He took Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes over as the national coach for the second time after the captain team‘s dismal performance at the UEFA EURO 2012. Van Gaal is an avid supporter of attacking football and has a preference for short-passing game and 4-3-3 formation. • Key players for the 2014 World Cup would be Robin van Persie, Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneidjer and Daryl Janmaat. The team will miss Rafael vander Vaart, who got injured recently. • According to BSports’s StatInsights, the Netherlands has a 64.8% chance of qualifying for the round of 16, second-highest among the Group B countries, and a 5% chance of becoming the FIFA World Cup 2014 champion. We expect elimination at the hands of Brazil in the round-of- 16.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 7 Goals For: 12 Goals Against: 6

Arena Fonte Nova, 13 June 16:00 Salvador Spain 1 Estadio Beira-Rio, Porto 18 June 13:00 Won Alegre Australia Drawn Arena de Sao Paulo, Sao 23 June 13:00 Paulo Chile Lost 6 Source: fifa.com

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 23 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Australia (AUS) Economy-USD1,505bn/ HDI-2/ FIFA-59

Diversifying Economy (from Commodities) and Sports (from Cricket)

Economic Performance Country Details • Australia, one of the world‘s largest developed economies, Region Oceania generates about two-thirds of its GDP from the services sector. Currency Australian Dollar Over the past decade, Australia‘s economy benefitted from robust Area Sq. Km. 7,692,024 iron and coal demand from China, its largest trading partner. Population Mn 22.6 Growth gradually softened due to China‘s slowdown since 2011. Urban Population % 89.3 According to IMF estimates, Australia‘s economy grew 2.4% in Urban Population Growth % 1.2 2013 (government estimate: 2.5%), down from 3.6% in 2012. Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population Growth will likely be driven by rise in household consumption, and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010- exports, and activity in housing and retail. 15, respectively

• Australia‘s fiscal deficit was 1.2% of GDP in 2013. The government Trade* Price asBalance of Feb 04, 2013 2013 expects it to rise to 3% in 2014, led by lower tax revenues and Import USD bn 304.3 high public spending. Export USD bn 304.9 • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expects headline inflation to be around 3% through 2014 (target: 2–3%). The IMF projects Balance USD bn 0.6 Australia‘s inflation to be around 2.3% in 2014. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services • Australia‘s unemployment rate increased from 5.2% in 2012 to 5.7% in 2013. However, employment growth picked up pace in Economic Indicators 2014. The unemployment rate fell to a four-month low of 5.8% in March 2014. 2012 2013 2014e GDP (USD bn) 1,555 1,505 1,436 • The IMF expects Australia to grow 2.60% in 2014 (government GDP/capita (USD) 67,856 64,863 61,137 estimate: 2.75%). In November 2013, Moody‘s kept Australia‘s Unemployment (%) 5.2 5.7 6.2 rating at Aaa with a stable outlook due to the country‘s very high financial strength and economic resilience. CPI 101.0 103.5 105.9 Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in Political Structure nominal terms • Australia is a parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy. The prime minister is the leader of cabinet and head of Economic Growth government. Tony Abbott led the Liberal Party to electoral victory 1.60 4.3 and became the prime minister in September 2013. • Transparency International‘s 2013 Corruption Index ranked 1.50 3.5 Australia ninth out of 177 countries, better than other Asia-Pacific countries. In % In AUDtn • Australia is a member of various organizations, including the UN, 1.40 2.8 APEC, G20, OECD, and WTO. Socio-economic background 1.30 2.0 2010 2012 2014e • Australia is ranked second on the Human Development Index (HDI). An HDI of 0.938 puts the country in the very high human Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS)

development category (group average: 0.905). Australia is ranked top in Asia-Pacific. Source: IMF data and estimates

Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.2 Growth (%) 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.3 (1.0)

GDP/Capita Growth (%) 0.0 6.3 5.3 1.6 2.3 (2.0) Government Revenue 382 394 423 450 474 In % In Government Expenditure 434 457 482 501 526 (3.0) (2.6) (2.8) (2.9) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 25.8 25.6 NA NA NA (4.0) (3.5) FDI Inflows 27 37 66 56 NA (4.1) PPP (EUR/USD) 1.50 1.56 1.59 1.56 1.56 (5.0) 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA

Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr AUD/USD average exchange rate of 0.91 from Oanda

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 24 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The A-League is the top league competition for Player DoB Club Caps Goals association football clubs in Australia. Ten clubs Goalkeepers participate in the competition. Brisbane Roar topped Eugen Galekovic 12-Jun-81 Adelaide United 8 0 the league table during the 2013 season. M. Langerak 22-Aug-88 B. Dortmund 3 0 • Australia‘s national football team, the Socceroos, has Mathew Ryan 8-Apr-92 Club Brugge 5 0 made three World Cup appearances (in 1974, 2006, Defenders and 2010). In 2010, they were eliminated in the group Jason Davidson 29-Jun-91 SC H. Almelo 5 0 stage, finishing third in Group D. Ivan Franjic 10-Sep-87 Brisbane Roar 7 0 • Australia began the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South R. J. Mc Gowan 15-Aug-89 S. L. Taishan 8 0 Africa with a 0-4 loss to Germany. Following a 1-1 draw M. Spiranovic 27-Jun-88 Syd. Wanderers 17 0 with Ghana, the Socceroos defeated Serbia 2-1 in the A. Wilkinson 13-Aug-84 J. Hyundai Motors 1 0 third match. They finished third in the group and were Bailey Wright 28-Jul-92 P. North End 0 0 eliminated from the tournament. Midfielders • Brett Holman was the team‘s highest scorer with two Oliver Bozanic 8-Jan-89 FC Luzern 2 0 goals, followed by Tim Cahill (one goal). Mark Bresciano 11-Feb-80 A l Gharafa 73 13 • The Socceroos were coached by Verbeek Pim during the James Holland 15-May-89 FK Austria Wien 12 0 World Cup. Current coach Ange Postecoglou was M. Jedinak (c) 3-Aug-84 Crystal Palace 43 4 appointed the head coach in October 2013. Massimo Luongo 25-Sep-92 Swindon Town 1 0 • The Socceroos have strong midfielders such as Mark Milligan 4-Aug-85 Melbourne Victory 27 2 Matthew McKay, and captain Mile Jedinak. Matthew Mc Kay 11-Jan-83 Brisbane Roar 45 1 Forward Tim Cahill is Australia’s all-time top goal James Troisi 3-Jul-88 Melbourne Victory 9 1 scorer. Other key players include Thomas Oar, Dario Vidosic 18-Apr-87 FC Sion 21 2 Mark Brescia and Mark Milligan. The team is now Forwards banking on youth as most of the players who Timothy Cahill 6-Dec-79 NY Red Bulls 67 31 represented the team in South Africa are not Adam Taggart 2-Jun-93 Newcastle Jets 4 3 included in the current squad. B. Halloran 14-Jun-92 F. Duesseldorf 0 0 • According to BSports’s StatsInsights, Spain and Thomas Oar 10-Dec-91 FC Utrecht 13 1 the Netherlands appear as favorites among Group Mathew Leckie 4-Feb-91 FSV Frankfurt 6 1 B countries. Australia stands only a 10.2% chance Coach: Ange Postecoglou to progress beyond the group stage. This will be Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of yet another world cup where Australia will fail to players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes advance beyond the group stage. captain

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 3 Goals Against: 6

Arena Pantanal, 13 June 18:00 Chile Cuiaba

Estadio Beira-Rio, 1 1 Won 18 June 13:00 Netherlands Porto Alegre Drawn

Arena da Baixada, Lost 23 June 13:00 Spain Curitiba 1

Source: fifa.com

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GROUP C Colombia | Greece | Côte d'Ivoire | Japan

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 26 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Colombia (COL) Economy-USD382bn/ HDI-91/ FIFA-5

Witnessing a Growing Economy and Surging Football Ranking

Economic Performance Country Details • Colombia‘s economy, which is mainly driven by oil and mining, Region South America expanded 6.6% in 2011. However, the growth rate decelerated in Currency Colombian Peso 2012 to 4.0% due to a fall in demand from the US, its biggest Area Sq. Km. 1,141,748 trade partner. In 2013, Colombia's economy grew at a slightly Population Mn 46.9 better rate of 4.3%, though still below the government's target of Urban Population % 75.6 4.5%. Nonetheless, this was the strongest growth rate in Latin Urban Population Growth % 1.7 America in 2013. For 2014, the government expects the economy Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population to expand around 5% as investment spending remains robust. The and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010- country reaped the benefits of high commodity prices and rising 15, respectively capital inflows. * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 Trade Balance 2013 • Colombia‘s budget deficit narrowed to 2.41% of GDP in 2013 from Import USD bn 70 2.45% in 2012. The 2013 deficit matched its target, despite lower- * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 than-expected tax revenues. Colombia recorded tax revenues of Export USD bn 65 COP100.4 trillion (USD52.1 billion) in 2013, below the target of Balance USD bn (6) COP102.3 trillion. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services • The country‘s annual inflation stood at 1.9% in 2013. This is the

lowest level in more than a decade and allowed the central bank to Economic Indicators maintain low borrowing costs throughout the year to support economic activity. Inflation has begun to tick up since the start of 2012 2013 2014e 2014. Annual consumer inflation increased to 2.7% y/y in April, GDP (USD bn) 370 382 388 inching closer to the central bank's yearly target of 3%. GDP/capita (USD) 7,936 8,098 8,126 Unemployment (%) 10.4 9.7 9.3 • Unemployment remains a weak spot for the economy. Colombia‘s unemployment rate stood at 8.48% at end-2013. Although the CPI 111.2 113.5 115.6 rate is higher than other advanced countries, it has reduced from Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in nominal terms Colombia's record high of 17.48% in 2012.

• In December 2013, Fitch upgraded Colombia's foreign currency Economic Growth sovereign credit rating to BBB from BBB-, citing improving debt dynamics and credible and consistent policies. The outlook was 600.00 7.0 revised to stable from positive following the overall upgrade. 6.0 Political Structure 500.00

• Colombia is a representative democracy with a central government 5.0

and separation of powers between legislative, executive and % In COP COP tn 400.00 judiciary. 4.0 • The country is a member of international organizations such as the IMF, UN, WTO, G-3, G-11, G-24, and G-77. 300.00 3.0 2010 2012 2014e Socio-economic Background • Colombia‘s HDI value increased 29% to 0.719 over 1980-2012, Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS)

reflecting an average annual increase of about 0.8%. Source: IMF data and estimates

Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (2.5) Population (mn) 45.0 45.5 46.1 46.6 47.2 Growth (%) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 GDP/Capita Growth (%) 3.9 6.7 12.7 5.6 6.1 (2.9)

Government Revenue 67 71 83 94 99 % In (3.0) Government Expenditure 74 80 89 94 102 (3.0)

Tax Revenue (% of GDP) NA NA NA NA NA (3.2) FDI Inflows NA NA NA NA NA (3.3) (3.3) (3.5) PPP (COP/USD) 1,228 1,261 1,322 1,333 1,353 2010 2012 2014e

Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates

terms; government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the January–April COP/USD average exchange rate of 0.001 from Oanda

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 27 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

1998 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Colombia, a CONMEBOL member, currently ranks Player DoB Club Caps Goals second in the confederation, as per the FIFA/Coca-Cola Goalkeepers Rankings (May 2014). At the top of the Colombian F. Mondragón 21-Jun-71 Deportivo Cali 49 0 football league system is Categoría Primera A, popularly David Ospina 31-Aug-88 Nice 42 0 known as Liga Postobón. Contested by 18 clubs, Camilo Vargas 1-Sep-89 Santa Fe NA NA Atlético Nacional topped the Liga Postobón 2014. Defenders • The Colombian team first qualified for the FIFA World Mario Yepes (c) 13-Jan-76 Atalanta 96 6 Cup in 1962. It returned only in the 1990 edition to J. Camilo Zúñiga 14-Dec-85 Napoli 50 1 reach the round of 16. In the 1994 and 1998 World Pablo Armero 2-Nov-86 West Ham United 50 1 Cups, the team did not qualify past the group stage. Cristián Zapata 30-Sep-86 Milan 20 0 The team, known as Los Cafeteros, is returning to a World Cup in 2014 after a 16-year hiatus. Since 2010, Carlos Valdés 22-May-85 San Lorenzo 12 2 the team‘s fortunes have improved and it now has a Santiago Arias 13-Jan-92 PSV 4 0 squad replete with attacking players and can surprise É. Á. Balanta 28-Feb-93 River Plate NA NA many to reach the semi-finals. In 1998, Colombia was Midfielders grouped with Romania, England and Tunisia. The Fredy Guarín 30-Jun-86 Internazionale NA NA country faced Romania in its first match of the Abel Aguilar 6-Jan-85 Toulouse 45 5 tournament and lost the match 0-1. Colombia won the Carlos Sánchez 6-Feb-86 Elche 42 0 next match against Tunisia with a score of 1-0, and lost A. Leão Ramírez 18-Apr-81 Morelia 29 1 the third match against England 0-2. J. G. Cuadrado 26-May-88 Fiorentina 27 3 • Colombia‘s only goal in the 1998 World Cup was scored J. Rodríguez 12-Jul-91 Monaco 21 4 by striker Leider Preciado. Víctor Ibarbo 19-May-90 Cagliari 7 1 • José Pekerman began coaching Los Cafeteros in Alexander Mejía 7-Sep-88 Atlético Nacional 7 0 January 2012. He guided the team to its first World Cup J. F. Quintero 18-Jan-93 Porto 3 0 in more than a decade. The team is strong defensively Forwards and agile in its attack. Pekerman, a midfielder in his Teófilo Gutiérrez 28-May-85 River Plate 29 11 playing days, also has previous World Cup experience J. Martínez 3-Oct-86 Porto 25 7 as a coach. He coached Argentina in 2006 and led the Adrián Ramos 22-Jan-86 Hertha BSC 23 2 team to the quarter-finals. Carlos Bacca 8-Sep-86 Sevilla 9 2 • Colombia is playing the 2014 World Cup with a Coach: José Pekerman new golden generation. The country has Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of succeeded in breaking into the top 10 for the first players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes time since 2002. Among the key players is captain Radamel Falcao, regarded as Colombia’s main attacking threat. However, he tore his anterior cruciate ligament in January 2014 and will miss the World Cup. Los Cafeteros is relying on defensive duo Mario Yepes and Cristian Zapata at the back end, attacking midfielder James Rodriguez, and striking partners Jackson Martinez and Teofilo Gutierrez. • The team is in a relativley even group along with Greece, Ivory Coast and Japan. According to BSports’s StatsInsights, Colombia has a 71.4% chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 40.5% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. The team’s probability of reaching the semi-finals, however, is just 18.5%. We expect Columbai to lose to Uruguay in the round-of-16.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 1998 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 1 Goals Against: 3

Estadio Mineirao, Belo 14 June 13:00 Horizonte Greece

Estadio Nacional, 19 June 13:00 Brasilia Côte d'Ivoire

24 June 16:00 Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba Japan

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 28 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Greece (GRE) Economy-USD242bn/ HDI-29/ FIFA-10

Back from the Brink

Economic Performance Country Details • Greece, one of the most affected economies during the Eurozone Region Southern Europe crisis, decelerated for the sixth consecutive year in 2013 as GDP Currency Euro contracted 3.9%, an improvement from a 7% decline in 2012. Area Sq. Km. 131,957 Nevertheless, the economy would grow in 2014 due to ongoing Population Mn 11.1 fiscal and structural reforms, along with foreign support. However, Urban Population % 61.7 the pace of recovery would remain limited due to contractionary Urban Population Growth % 0.6 fiscal policy and inadequate access to credit. Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population • Greece‘s unemployment rate rose sharply from below 12% in the and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010- 15, respectively pre-crisis period to its highest level of 27.7% in September 2013.

The unemployment rate stabilized at 26.5% in February 2014. Trade Balance 2013 According to ELSTAT, the young population (aged 14–24 years) was the worst affected, with 56.9% being unemployed. Consumer Import USD bn 77 prices fell 1.3% y/y in April 2014 due to wage cuts. Greece is Export USD bn 73 under deflationary pressure since March 2013. Balance USD bn (3) • In May 2010, Greece received its first assistance package from the Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services EU and IMF in exchange for implementation of austerity measures

and reforms. It received another bailout in 2012 accompanied with Economic Indicators appointment of the Troika (EU, ECB and IMF) for implementation of reforms. Debt levels surged to an all-time high of 175.1% of GDP 2012 2013 2014e in 2013 compared with the pre-bailout level of 130%. In 2013, GDP (USD bn) 249 242 249 Greece achieved its first primary budget surplus since 2002 and a GDP/capita (USD) 22,347 21,857 22,594 year before the initial target set by the IMF and EU. Greece also Unemployment (%) 24.2 27.3 26.3 made a re-entry into international debt markets in April this year CPI 122.9 121.8 121.3 with a EUR 3 billion bond issue. Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in • The IMF expects Greece‘s economy to come out of recession in nominal terms

2014 and grow 0.6%, later economy would grow gradually. S&P affirmed Greece‘s ‗B-‘ rating with a stable outlook in March 2014. Economic Growth

Political Structure 0.21 1.0 • Greece is a parliamentary republic, with the president as the head

of state and the prime minister as the head of government. 0.19 (2.0) According to the Corruption Perception Index 2013, Greece had the

highest rate of corruption among the EU member countries. % In EUR tn EUR 0.17 (5.0) • Greece is a member of the UN, EU, OECD and WTO, among others. Socio-economic Background 0.15 (8.0) • Greece‘s poverty levels are increasing due to unemployment and 2010 2012 2014e welfare cuts. In 2012, Greece had the fourth highest rate of Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) childhood poverty in the EU (Caritas Report). According to UNICEF, in 2012, the number of children living in unemployed households rose 70% to 292,000 since 2008. Around 34.6% of total population Source: IMF data and estimates is at the risk of poverty or social exclusion (Eurostat). Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2.0 0.7 0.9 Population (mn) 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 (2.0) Growth (%) 0.1 (0.1) (0.5) 0.0 (0.5) (2.4) GDP/Capita Growth (%) (1.0) (3.8) (5.6) (7.3) (5.3)

In % In (6.0) Government Revenue 122 124 121 117 112 Government Expenditure 171 157 149 134 118 (10.0) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 30.5 31.6 32.2 33.8 NA (10.1) (9.9) FDI Inflows 2,435 330 1,144 1,741 NA (14.0) PPP (EUR/USD) 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.71 0.69 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population (% of Total) NA 7.0 NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr EUR/USD average exchange rate of 1.37 from Oanda

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 29 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The Superleague Greece is the highest professional Player DoB Club Caps Goals football association of the Greek football league system. Goalkeepers It ranks 12th among the European leagues, according to Panagiotis Glykos 10-Oct-86 PAOK 1 0 the UEFA‘s ranking of leagues. Olympiacos topped the Stefanos Kapino 18-Mar-94 Panathinaikos 1 0 18-team league for the 2013–14 season, followed by Orestis-spy Karnezis 11-Jul-85 Granada 17 0 PAOK. Defenders • Greece participated for the second time in the 2010 Jose Lloyd Holebas 27-Jun-84 Olym. Piraeus 20 1 FIFA World cup after its maiden appearance in 1994. Konstantinos Manolas 14-Jun-91 Olym. Piraeus 6 0 On both occasions, Greece could not qualify for the Vangelis Moras 26-Aug-81 Hellas Verona 16 0 knockout stage. In between, it won the Euro S. Papastathopoulos 9-Jun-88 B. Dortmund 46 0 Championships in 2004. Vasileios Torosidis 10-Jun-85 AS Roma 64 7 • In 2010, Greece was placed in Group B with Argentina, Georgios Tzavellas 26-Nov-87 PAOK 12 0 South Korea, and Nigeria. Argentina was the group Loukas Vy Ntra 5-Feb-81 Levante 47 0 favorite. In their opening match, Greeks lost 0-2 to Midfielders South Korea. Greece won its next match against Nigeria L. Christoooulopoulos 19-Dec-86 Bologna 16 1 2-1, keeping its hopes of qualifying to the next stage alive. However, in the final round of group matches, loannis Fetfatzidis 21-Dec-90 Genoa 16 3 Argentina defeated Greece by a scoreline of 0-2. Thus, G. Karagkounis 6-Mar-77 Fulham 132 10 they were eliminated for the second time at the group K. Katsouranis 21-Jun-79 PAOK 109 9 stage. G. Panagiotis Kone 26-Jul-87 Bologna 14 0 • Dimitrios Salpingidis scored the team‘s first ever World loannis Maniatis 12-Oct-86 Olym. Piraeus 28 0 Cup goal in the 44th minute of the second match Andreas Samaris 13-Jun-89 Olym. Piraeus 3 0 (against Nigeria) to tie the match at 1-1. In the second Panagiotis Tachtsidis 15-Feb-91 Torino 4 0 half, Vasilis Torosidis scored the winning goal, leading Alexandros Tziolis 13-Feb-85 Kayserispor 47 1 Greece to its maiden victory at the World Cup. Forwards • The German manager Rehhagel Otto was the team‘s Theofanis Gkekas 23-May-80 Konyaspor 69 24 coach during the 2010 World Cup. He was replaced by K. Mitroglou 12-Mar-88 Fulham 29 8 the current national coach Fernando Santos in July Oimitrios Salpingiois 18-Aug-81 PAOK 73 13 2010. Under his guidance, the team continues have a Georgios Samaras 21-Feb-85 Celtic 71 8 defensive game supported by a capable mid-field and a Coach: Fernando Santos decent forward line. Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of • Greece is likely to benefit from the inclusion of players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes captain captain and experienced midfielder Giorgos Karagounis and forwards Dimitrios Salpingidis and Konstantinos Mitroglou. Other experienced players include Theofanis Gekas, Giorgos Samaras, and Kostas Katsouranis. • Greece is in a group of equals, in our opinion. According to BSports’s StatsInsights, Greece has a 52.3% chance of qualifying to the knockout stages, behind Columbia. However, it is unlikely that the team would go beyond the round of 16.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 2 Goals Against: 5

Estadio Mineirao, Belo 14 June 13:00 Horizonte Columbia

19 June 19:00 Estadio das Dunas, Natal Japan

Estadio Castelao, 24 June 17:00 Fortaleza Côte d‘Ivoire

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 30 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) Economy-USD28bn/ HDI-168/ FIFA-21

Swiftly Recovering from Political Tumult

Economic Performance Country Details • Côte d‘Ivoire, the world‘s top exporter of cocoa and cashews, relies Region Western Africa heavily on agriculture and allied activities, which together employ Currency CFA Franc about 68% of the local population. The country‘s economy faced Area Sq. Km. 322,463 political turmoil after the end of the civil war in 2003, resulting in a Population Mn 20.2 decline in foreign investment and slow economic growth. The Urban Population % 52.0 situation deteriorated further due to the post-election crisis of Urban Population Growth % 52.0 2010–11. However, the country began to recover in late 2011, Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010- announced debt relief amounting to USD4.4 billion under the 15, respectively Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative. Côte d‘Ivoire‘s * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 government began working on political normalization and adopted Trade Balance 2013 a national development plan (NDP) for 2012–15. The plan aims to Import USD bn 16

transform the country into an emerging market by 2020 and Export USD bn 15 * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 reduce the poverty rate to half by end-2015 through a Balance USD bn (1) comprehensive reform agenda. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include • The economy expanded at a robust 9.8% in 2012 and 8.8% in merchandise and commercial services 2013, aided by large-scale infrastructure development projects and resumption of private investment. Growth is expected to remain at Economic Indicators about 9% in 2014 and 2015 due to an anticipated increase in 2012 2013 2014e private investment, led by the improving business climate and GDP (USD bn) 25 28 32 adequate external financing. The NDP also estimates public GDP/capita (USD) 1,057 1,175 1,302 investment to rise to about 7% of GDP by 2015. Unemployment (%) NA NA NA • Côte d‘Ivoire‘s budget situation improved in 2013, after worsening CPI 141.4 145.1 146.8 in 2011 and 2012. Revenues increased after the tax administration Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in was reorganized, whereas spending (as a % of GDP) remained nominal terms high due to ongoing reconstruction activities. The country‘s budget deficit fell from 2.6% of GDP in 2012 to 2.0% in 2013. Economic Growth

• Inflation rose from 1.3% in 2012 to 2.5% in 2013. Inflation is 15.00 15.0 expected to remain low and stable over the medium term. 10.0 Political Structure 10.00 • Côte d‘Ivoire is a democratic republic, in which the President is 5.0

head of the state, government, and a multi-party system. The 0.0 % In XOF tn XOF country‘s political situation has improved since the ouster and 5.00 (5.0) subsequent arrest of the former President Laurent Gbagbo, but remains fragile. Key issues related to the national reconciliation 0.00 (10.0) process remain unaddressed and need to be resolved prior to the 2010 2012 2014e country‘s presidential elections in 2015. Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS)

Socio-economic Background • Côte d‘Ivoire ranks 168th on the World Bank‘s HDI. In 2012, the Source: IMF data and estimates country was part of the ‗low human development‘ group. Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 16.0 Population (mn) 21.4 22.0 22.7 23.4 24.1 12.9 Growth (%) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 12.0

GDP/Capita Growth (%) 0.7 1.3 (2.8) 7.7 7.7 8.0

Government Revenue 4 5 4 6 6 % In 4.0 2.5 Government Expenditure 5 5 5 6 7 Tax Revenue (% of GDP) NA NA NA NA NA 0.0 FDI Inflows NA NA NA NA NA (1.3) (1.2) (4.0) (2.2) PPP (XOF/USD) 307 309 318 316 319 2010 2012 2014e

Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA

Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal terms; Source: IMF data and estimates government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr XOF/USD average exchange rate of 0.002 from Oanda.

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2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The Ivory Coast Ligue 1 is the highest division of the Player DoB Club Caps Goals Fédération Ivoirienne de Football. Fourteen teams Goalkeepers contest in the championship. Séwé Sport topped the Boubacar Barry 30-Dec-79 Lokeren 79 0 league table in the 2012–13 season. Sayouba Mandé 15-Jun-93 Stabæk 1 0 • Côte d‘Ivoire team, known as the ―Elephants‖ qualified S. Gbohouo 29-Oct-88 Séwé Sport 0 0 for the FIFA World Cup twice, in 2006 and 2010. Defenders However, the team never made it beyond the group Didier Zokora 14-Dec-80 Trabzonspor 119 1 stage as it shared its group with strong opponents in Kolo Touré 19-Mar-81 Liverpool 106 6 both instances. For Côte d‘Ivoire‘s debut appearance in Arthur Boka 2-Apr-83 Stuttgart 78 1 2006, the country‘s draw comprised Argentina, the Sol Bamba 13-Jan-85 Trabzonspor 42 2 Netherlands, and Serbia and Montenegro. In 2010, the country shared its group with heavyweights such as Jean Akpa 11-Oct-92 Toulouse FC 0 0 Brazil and Portugal, in addition to North Korea. Serge Aurier 24-Dec-92 Toulouse 8 0 Constant Djakpa 17-Oct-86 E. Frankfurt 3 0 • In the 2010 World Cup, Côte d‘Ivoire‘s first match Ousmane Viera 21-Dec-86 Çaykur Rizespor 3 0 against Portugal ended in a 0–0 draw. This was followed by a 1–3 loss against Brazil and a 3–0 win Midfielders against North Korea. Consequently, the team did not Yaya Touré 13-May-83 Man. City 83 16 make it to the round of 16. Cheick Tioté 21-Jun-86 Newcastle United 43 1 Didier Ya Konan 25-Feb-84 Hannover 96 25 8 • Yaya Toure, Romaric, Salomon Kalou, and Didier Drogba each scored a goal in the 2010 World Cup. Max Gradel 30-Nov-87 Saint-Étienne 24 3 Serey Die 7-Nov-84 Basel 5 0 • For the 2014 World Cup, Côte d‘Ivoire won four of the Forwards six qualifying matches. The team scored a total of 15 D. Drogba (c) 11-Mar-78 Galatasaray 99 63 goals, conceded five, and dropped just two points due to draw against their archrivals Morocco. Côte d‘Ivoire Salomon Kalou 5-Aug-85 Lille 64 23 confirmed its presence in its third consecutive World Gervinho 27-May-87 Roma 53 13 Cup after a solid performance in the play-off against Wilfried Bony 10-Dec-88 Swansea City 24 8 Senegal. Côte d‘Ivoire‘s chances appear stronger this Mathis Bolly 14-Nov-90 F. Düsseldorf 2 0 time as it is drawn in Group C. Elephants are the Giovanni Sio 31-Mar-89 Basel 6 0 highest ranking African team in this year‘s World Cup. Coach: Sabri Lamouchi • In May 2012, Sabri Lamouchi, a former French Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of midfielder, was appointed as the national coach. He has players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes made 12 appearances for the French national team. captain This is his first stint as a manager. • Former Chelsea footballer Didier Drogba is likely to play a key role in the Côte d’Ivoire team. He is a record goal scorer, with 63 goals to his credit. Other key players include Manchester City’s Yaya Touré, Swansea’s Wilfred Bony, Lille’s Salomon kalou and Roma’s Gervinho. • According to BSports’s StatsInsights, the Côte d’Ivoire team has 36.1% probability of reaching the round of 16 and a small 12.9% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. We favor Ivory Coast to finish ahead of Japan and Greece in the group stage. However, in order to qualify for the quarter-finals, Ivory Coast will need to defeat a strong opponent – either Italy or Uruguay in the round of 16.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 4 Goals Against: 3

Arena Pernambuco, 14 June 22:00 Recife Japan

Estadio Nacional, 1 1 Won 19 June 13:00 Colombia Brasilia Drawn

Estadio Castelao, Lost 24 June 17:00 Greece Fortaleza 1

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 32 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Japan (JPN) Economy-USD4,902bn/ HDI-10/ FIFA-47

Abenomics – A Fix for Ailing Economy and the Game?

Economic Performance Country Details • Japan is among the most developed nations in the world. However, Region Eastern Asia economic growth in the country has remained low for a long Currency Yen period. GDP rose just 0.7% q/q during 4Q13, missing the estimate Area Sq. Km. 377,930 of 1%, due to weak capital expenditure and consumer spending. Population Mn 127.3 On an annual basis, the economy grew 1.5% in 2013. Urban Population % 91.7 • Japan has been struggling with persistently low inflation since Urban Population Growth % 0.6 1998. Core inflation remained at 1.3% for the fourth consecutive month in March 2014. However, the Bank of Japan expects to Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 achieve the target inflation of 2% by mid-2015. and 2010–15, respectively • After four consecutive months of current account deficit, Japan posted a surplus of JPY612.7 billion in February 2014 (as reported Trade Balance 2013 by the Ministry of Finance). In January 2013, the deficit stood at Import USD bn 994 JPY1.6 trillion, the biggest since 1985. Imports have risen due to Export USD bn 859 increasing demand for oil & gas following the nuclear disaster and for foreign goods ahead of the sales tax hike in April. The yen‘s Balance USD bn (135) 16% decline since December 2012 further lifted the import bill. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services • Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world - public debt

stood at JPY1,017.9 trillion as of December 2013. To ease Economic Indicators deflationary pressures and bring the economy back to recovery, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe initiated ‗Abenomics‘ – a strategy based 2012 2013 2014e on aggressive monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy, and various GDP (USD bn) 5,938 4,902 4,846 structural reforms – in December 2012. GDP/capita (USD) 46,530 38,491 38,142 • The IMF expects the GDP to grow 1.4% in 2014 and 1% in 2015. Unemployment (%) 4.3 4.0 3.9 Political Structure CPI 99.7 100.0 102.8 • Japan is a parliamentary representative democratic monarchy, Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in where the Prime Minister is the head of state and government. The nominal terms emperor is only a symbol of the state, with very limited power. Economic Growth • Japan is a member of various international organizations, including the G-7, G-20, IMF, OECD, UN, and WTO. 540.00 6.0 Socio-economic Background

• Japan faces a ticking time bomb as the population is declining as 520.00 3.0 well as ageing at a fast pace, while the birth rate continues to fall. In In % The government estimates the population aged 65 and above to JPY tn 500.00 0.0 reach 40% by 2060 from the record high of 25.6% currently. Children under 15 account for 12.8%, the lowest since 1950. • In 2012, Japan ranked high (10th) on the World Bank‘s Human 480.00 (3.0) Development Index (HDI), with the highest life expectancy (83.6 2010 2012 2014e years) among 186 countries. Moreover, the country has Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) successfully transformed from a recipient of foreign aid to a donor.

Source: IMF data and estimates

Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4.0 3.7 Population (mn) 128.1 128.0 127.9 127.6 127.3 Growth (%) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) 3.0 GDP/Capita Growth (%) (6.0) 2.4 (2.2) 0.7 1.2 2.0 Government Revenue 1,366 1,400 1,422 1,448 1,485

In In % 2.0 Government Expenditure 1,846 1,840 1,876 1,853 1,877 1.2 1.0 Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 27.0 27.6 28.6 NA NA 1.0 0.7 FDI Inflows 12 (1) (2) 2 NA PPP (JPY/USD) 114.69 110.86 106.72 103.93 101.81 0.0 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA 1.7 NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates

terms; government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr JPY/USD average exchange rate of 0.01 from Oanda

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 33 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The J.League Division 1 or J1 League is the highest Player DoB Club Caps Goals division of the Japan Professional Football League Goalkeepers system. Eighteen teams contest for the league title. Sanfrecce Hiroshima was the champion during the 2013 Eiji Kawashima 20-Mar-83 Standard Liège 54 0 season. S. Nishikawa 18-Jun-86 Urawa Reds 12 0 • World Cup 2014 would mark Japan‘s fifth consecutive Shūichi Gonda 03-Mar-89 FC Tōkyō 2 0 World Cup appearance. In 2010, Asian teams – Japan Defenders and Korea Republic – qualified for the first time to the Yasuyuki Konno 25-Jan-83 Gamba Ōsaka 78 1 round of 16 at World Cups held outside the home Masahiko Inoha 28-Aug-85 Júbilo Iwata 20 1 continent. However, the Japanese team, also called Yūto Nagatomo 12-Sep-86 Internazionale 67 3 Samurai Blue, was eliminated after losing the round-of- Masato Morishige 21-May-87 FC Tōkyō 7 1 16 match to Paraguay. Maya Yoshida 24-Aug-88 Southampton 38 2 • Japan was placed with the Netherlands, Denmark, and Hiroki Sakai 12-Apr-90 Hannover 96 15 0 Cameroon in Group E in the 2010 World Cup. Samurai Blue secured the second spot at the group stage, after Gōtoku Sakai 14-Mar-91 Stuttgart 12 0 the Netherlands. The team defeated Cameroon in the Atsuto Uchida 27-Mar-88 Schalke 04 65 1 first match by 1-0, but lost to the Dutch in the next Midfielders game by the same score. Japan beat Denmark in the Yasuhito Endō 28-Jan-80 Gamba Ōsaka 141 12 third group stage match with a comfortable score of 3-1 T. Aoyama 22-Feb-86 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4 0 to secure a spot in the round of 16. The round-of-16 H. Yamaguchi 06-Oct-90 Cerezo Ōsaka 9 0 match with Paraguay, remained goal-less during the 90 minutes, plus extra time, which led to the first penalty M. Hasebe (c) 18-Jan-84 Nürnberg 77 2 shoot-out of the tournament. Japan was defeated 3-5 Forwards on penalties. Keisuke Honda 13-Jun-86 Milan 53 20 • Keisuke Honda was the team‘s top scorer, with two Shinji Kagawa 17-Mar-89 Man. United 54 17 goals, followed by Shinji Okazaki and Yasuhito Endō Manabu Saitō 04-Apr-90 Yokohama F. Marinos 4 1 (one each). Midfielder Shunsuke Nakamura announced Shinji Okazaki 16-Apr-86 Mainz 05 73 38 his retirement from international football following the Hiroshi Kiyotake 12-Nov-89 Nürnberg 24 1 2010 World Cup. Yūya Ōsako 18-May-90 1860 München 7 3 • Coach Takeshi Okada, who guided Samurai Blue Yoichiro Kakitani 03-Jan-90 Cerezo Ōsaka 9 4 through the World Cup, resigned after the team lost in the round-of-16 match. He was succeeded by Alberto Yoshito Ōkubo 09-Jun-82 Kawasaki Frontale 54 5 Zaccheroni, who is the current coach. The Italian Coach: Alberto Zaccheroni football manager Zaccheroni favors a 3-4-3 formation. Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes • Japan is the current Asian Champion. The team’s captain top scorer in the 2010 World Cup, midfielder Keisuke Honda, would be a player to watch out for along with Shinji Kagawa (Manchester United), Maya Yoshida (Southampton), Shinji Okazaki (Mainz), and Yasuhito Endō (Gamba Osaka). • Japan is the lowest ranked team in Group C According to BSports’s StatInsights, Samurai Blue has the second lowest chance of progressing to the round of 16, after Côte d’Ivoire. However, we are not writing off Japan and expect it to give a surprise or two to prove the sceptics wrong.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 4 Goals For: 4 Goals Against: 2

Arena Pernambuco, 14 June 22:00 Recife Côte d'Ivoire

1 Won 19 June 19:00 Estadio das Dunas, Natal Greece 2 Drawn

24 June 16:00 Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba Columbia Lost 1

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 34 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

GROUP D Uruguay | Italy | England | Costa Rica

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 35 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Uruguay (URU) Economy-USD56bn/ HDI-51/ FIFA-6

A Budding Economy and a Promising Soccer Team

Economic Performance Country Details • The second-smallest country in South America, Uruguay, is an Region South America open, stable economy. Its growth has been strong since the 2002 Currency Uruguayan Peso crisis - the economy grew 5.4% over 2004–13. Moreover, the per Area Sq. Km. 176,215 capita income in PPP terms has doubled from its pre-crisis levels. Population Mn 3.4 Furthermore, it has been able to withstand the 2008–09 global Urban Population % 92.6 crisis. According to the Central Bank, Uruguay‘s economy Urban Population Growth % 0.4 expanded 4.4% in 2013. Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban • The country brought unemployment to a historical low of 6% in population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively 2012 from 16.7% in 2002 due to substantial job creation driven by strong economic growth. However, the economy is facing increased inflationary pressure due to a tight labor market and Trade Balance 2013 growing real wages. Inflation has consistently remained above the Import USD bn 15 official target of 3–7% - annual consumer inflation reached 9.8% Export USD bn 12 in February 2014, the highest since August 2004. The government Balance USD bn (3) is taking initiatives such as VAT cuts to control prices. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include • Uruguay has significantly diversified its economy. While Argentina merchandise and commercial services and Brazil remain key trading partners, Uruguay has gradually reduced its dependence on these countries after it faced the ripple Economic Indicators effects from Argentina‘s economic crisis during 1998–02.

2012 2013 2014e • The IMF revised its 2014 growth forecast for Uruguay to about 3% GDP (USD bn) 50 56 58 from 3.3% earlier due to the expected lower growth in neighboring GDP/capita (USD) 14,767 16,609 17,121 countries, primarily Argentina and Brazil, and lower prices for its Unemployment (%) 6.0 6.3 6.8 exports. CPI 116.7 126.7 137.4 • In March 2014, Fitch upgraded Uruguay‘s rating to BBB- from BB- Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in with a stable outlook, on account of its recent growth. BBB- is the nominal terms lowest investment grade rating. Political Structure Economic Growth • Uruguay is a democratic constitutional republic where the 0.70 10.0 president (currently, José Mujica) is the head of state and government. General elections are scheduled for October 2014. 0.65 7.0 • Uruguay is a member of various international organizations, 0.60

including Mercosur, UN, NATO, and WTO. In % UYU UYU tn 4.0 Socio-economic Background 0.55 • Uruguay is characterized by social stability, a high literacy rate, a highly urbanized population, and an advanced social security 0.50 1.0 system. It is ranked first among Latin American countries on 2010 2012 2014e

several parameters, such as the democracy index, low corruption, Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) and IT development index. Source: IMF data and estimates, Banco Central Del Uruguay

Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Growth (%) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 (2.0) (1.9) GDP/Capita Growth (%) 6.9 13.8 14.7 12.6 13.4 (3.0)

Government Revenue 10 11 13 14 17 In % (4.0) Government Expenditure 10 12 13 15 18

Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 27.1 27.0 27.3 26.3 NA (6.0) (5.4) (5.5) FDI Inflows 2 2 2 3 NA (5.9) PPP (UYU/USD) 16.11 16.69 17.68 18.91 20.34 (8.0) Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA 2010 2012 2014e Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD, Uruguay XXI; Note: GDP/capita growth Source: IMF data and estimates is in nominal terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr UYU/USD average exchange rate of 0.04 from Oanda

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 36 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Uruguay currently ranks third within CONMEBOL, as per Player DoB Club Caps Goals the FIFA/Coca-Cola Rankings (May 2014). Primera Goalkeepers División is at the top of the Uruguayan league system. Fernando Muslera 16-Jun-86 Galatasaray 56 0 As of May 2014, Montevideo Wanderers topped the 16- Martín Silva 25-Mar-83 Vasco da Gama 4 0 club league, followed by Peñarol. Rodrigo Muñoz 22-Jan-82 Libertad 0 0 • Uruguay placed fourth at the 2010 FIFA World Cup in Defenders South Africa. Known as La Celeste in Uruguay, the Maxi Pereira 08-Jun-84 Benfica 88 3 team has won two World Cups, first at home in 1930 Diego Lugano (c) 02-Nov-80 West Brom 92 9 and then in Brazil in 1950. Diego Godín 16-Feb-86 Atlético Madrid 76 3 • The team qualified for the round of 16 after winning Jorge Fucile 19-Nov-84 Porto 41 0 two group stage matches: against South Africa (3-0) José M. Giménez 20-Jan-95 Atlético Madrid 4 0 and Mexico (1-0). Its first match, against France, ended Martín Cáceres 07-Apr-87 Juventus 55 1 in a draw. Uruguay won against South Korea 2-1 in the Sebastián Coates 07-Oct-90 Liverpool 13 0 round of 16. It progressed to the semi-finals after Midfielders defeating Ghana 4-2 on penalties. However, the team Álvaro Pereira 28-Nov-85 São Paulo 55 6 lost the two subsequent matches. In the semi-final the Diego Pérez 18-May-80 Bologna 88 2 team lost to Netherlands (2-3) and in the third place Cristian Rodríguez 30-Sep-85 Atlético Madrid 71 8 play-off lost to Germany (2-3). Gastón Ramírez 02-Dec-90 Southampton 27 0 • Diego Forlán received the Adidas Golden Ball for the Walter Gargano 23-Jul-84 Parma 61 1 best player and was one of the top scorers, with five Nicolás Lodeiro 21-Mar-89 Botafogo 25 3 goals, at the 2010 World Cup. Luis Suárez, with three Álvaro González 29-Oct-84 Lazio 42 2 goals, was the second-highest scorer for the team. Egidio A. Ríos 01-Jan-82 Morelia 53 0 • La Celeste was coached by Óscar Tabárez, popularly Forwards known as El Maestro (The Teacher), for the 2010 World Christian Stuani 12-Oct-86 Espanyol 8 2 Cup. He continues as the national coach for the 2014 Diego Forlán 19-May-79 Cerezo Ōsaka 108 36 FIFA World Cup. Tabárez‘s key tactic is flexibility. He Luis Suárez 24-Jan-87 Liverpool 77 39 adapts to the opposition and can maneuver between a Edinson Cavani 14-Feb-87 Paris St-Germain 60 20 number of formations, including a base 4-4-2, 4-3-3, Abel Hernández 08-Aug-90 Palermo 11 7 and a back three. Coach: Óscar Tabárez • For 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil, Uruguay would Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of be led by the deadly striker-duo Luis Suárez and players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes Edinson Cavani. Forlán is likely to be used as a captain substitute. Other players to watch out for are captain Diego Lugano, defender Martín Cáceres, and Fernando Muslera. • Uruguay is in a challenging group with two other former world champions, Italy and England. According to BSports’s StatInsights, the reigning South American Champions have the third- highest chance to qualify for the quarter-finals among the group D countries, after Italy and England. We have faith in Uruguay to qualify for the group stage ahead of England and then surprise many to reach the quarter-finals.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 7 Goals For: 11 Goals Against: 8

Estadio Castelao, 14 June 16:00 Fortaleza Costa Rica

Arena de Sao Paulo, Sao 2 19 June 16:00 England Won Paulo 3 Drawn

24 June 13:00 Estadio das Dunas, Natal Italy Lost 2 Source: fifa.com

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 37 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Italy (ITA) Economy-USD2,072bn/ HDI-25/ FIFA-9

Highly Indebted Economy with a Talented Soccer Team

Economic Performance Country Details • Italy – the third-largest economy in the Eurozone after Germany Region Southern Europe and France, entered a recession in 2008. This could be ascribed to Currency Euro fiscal imbalances and low growth. After registering a sharp decline Area Sq. Km. 301,336 of 5.5% in 2009, the economy recovered modestly in 2010 (1.7%) Population Mn 59.7 and 2011 (0.5%), but entered a double-dip recession in 2012 (- Urban Population % 68.6 2.4%). GDP continued to contract in 2013 (-1.9% y/y) due to the Urban Population Growth % 0.5 adverse impact of weak business confidence and consumer Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population demand, an increase in fiscal austerity, disruption in financial and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010- markets, and concerns over sovereign debt levels. 15, respectively • Italy‘s public debt levels have been consistently high and averaged * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 108% of GDP over 1997–07). Debt stood at EUR2.1 trillion Trade Balance 2013 (132.6% of the GDP) in 2013. By contrast, government budget Import USD bn 584 deficit fell to 3% in 2013 from 5.5% in 2009. The government Export* Price as of Feb 04, 2013 USD bn 627 estimates the deficit to be around 2.6% in 2014. Balance USD bn 43

• The unemployment rate stood at 12.7% (highest since 1977) for Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include the third consecutive month in April 2014, with youth merchandise and commercial services unemployment (in the age group of 15–24) at 42.7%. • Government is undertaking several fiscal and structural reforms to Economic Indicators revive economic growth. In March 2014, Matteo Renzi, Prime 2012 2013 2014e Minister, announced income tax cuts worth EUR10 billion to be GDP (USD bn) 2,014 2,072 2,171 funded through a reduction in spending, income from the GDP/capita (USD) 33,915 34,715 36,216 privatization program and a tax hike on financial income. Unemployment (%) 10.7 12.2 12.4 • According to Italy‘s National Institute for Statistics (Istat), the CPI 117.5 119.0 119.8 economy is projected to expand 0.6% in 2014 and grow gradually Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in thereafter, in line with the IMF‘s estimates, largely driven by nominal terms domestic demand. Moreover, in February 2014, Moody‘s raised the outlook for Italy to stable from negative, citing financial strength Economic Growth and reduced risk from contingent liabilities as the primary reasons. 1.44 2.0 Despite positive signs, economic recovery remains fragile. Political Structure • Italy is a parliamentary republic, where the President is the head 1.41 0.0 of state and the Prime Minister is the head of government. Matteo In % In

Renzi became the country‘s youngest Prime Minister in February tn EUR 1.38 (2.0) 2014. • The country is a member of various organizations including the UN, EU, NATO, G-7, OECD, Council of Europe, and WTO. 1.35 (4.0) 2010 2012 2014e Socio-economic Background th Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) • In 2012, Italy ranked 25 on the World Bank‘s Human Development Index (HDI). The country‘s urban population is growing at a rate of 0.5% (2010–15). Source: IMF data and estimates

Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3.0 1.1 Population (mn) 59.0 59.2 59.4 59.4 59.7 0.8 1.0 Growth (%) 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 GDP/Capita Growth (%) (4.1) 1.8 1.5 (0.9) (0.9)

In % In (1.0) Government Revenue 970 983 1,001 1,026 1,024 (0.4) Government Expenditure 1,084 1,076 1,081 1,088 1,089 (3.0) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 43.4 43.0 43.0 44.4 NA (3.1) FDI Inflows 20 9 34 16 NA (3.5) (5.0) PPP (EUR/USD) 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA 6.5 NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr EUR/USD average exchange rate of 1.37 from Oanda

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Serie A is the highest professional league competition in Player DoB Club Caps Goals Italy. Contested by 20 clubs, Juventus topped the Goalkeepers 2013–14 league table, followed by Roma and Napoli. Gianluigi Buffon (c) 28-Jan-78 Juventus 138 0 • Italy has won four World Cup titles (1934, 1938, 1982 Mattia Perin 10-Nov-92 Genoa 0 0 and 2006), in addition to being runners-up twice (1970 Salvatore Sirigu 12-Jan-87 Paris 7 0 and 1994). Italy and Brazil are the only teams in the Defenders tournament‘s history to win the title twice in a row. Ignazio Abate 12-Nov-86 Milan 18 1 However, the team‘s performance in the 2010 World Andrea Barzagli 08-May-81 Juventus 47 0 Cup being defending champions, was disheartening as it was eliminated in the first round. Leonardo Bonucci 01-May-87 Juventus 34 2 Giorgio Chiellini 14-Aug-84 Juventus 66 4 • In 2010, Italy was grouped with Paraguay, Slovakia Matteo Darmian 02-Dec-89 Torino 0 0 and New Zealand. The team failed to progress from the Mattia De Sciglio 20-Oct-92 Milan 9 0 group stage and finished last. For the first time, La Squadra Azzurra was eliminated from the tournament Gabriel Paletta 15-Feb-86 Parma 1 0 without a single win. The opening match with Paraguay Midfielders ended in a 1-1 draw, followed by another 1-1 draw Alberto Aquilani 07-Jul-84 Fiorentina 33 5 against New Zealand, which was playing the first World Antonio Candreva 28-Feb-87 Lazio 19 0 Cup in over two decades. Azzuri lost their only chance Daniele De Rossi 24-Jul-83 Roma 93 15 to qualify for the next round after being defeated by Claudio Marchisio 19-Jan-86 Juventus 41 2 Slovakia for 2–3. Italy was eliminated without making it Riccardo Montolivo 18-Jan-85 Milan 57 2 to the top 16 for the first time since 1974. Thiago Motta 28-Aug-82 Paris 19 1 • During the tournament, Daniele De Rossi, Fabio Marco Parolo 25-Jan-85 Parma 2 0 Quagliarella, Vincenzo Iaquinta and Antonio Di Natale Andrea Pirlo 19-May-79 Juventus 107 13 scored a goal each. Despite their efforts, the team Marco Verratti 05-Nov-92 Paris 4 1 failed to win any match. Forwards • Marcello Lippi, who led the team‘s victory in the 2006 Mario Balotelli 12-Aug-90 Milan 29 12 FIFA World Cup, was re-appointed national coach in Antonio Cassano 12-Jul-82 Parma 34 10 2010. However, he was succeeded by the current coach Alessio Cerci 23-Jul-87 Torino 10 0 Cesare Prandelli following the 2010 World Cup. The Ciro Immobile 20-Feb-90 Torino 1 0 team has a strong attacking sense and unpredictability Coach: Cesare Prandelli seems to be Prandelli‘s key tactic. Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of • Mario Balotelli would be the most important players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes player, especially after his strike rate during the captain World Cup qualifiers. Likewise, players, including Giorgio Chiellini(defender), Thiago Motta and Marco Verratti, (midfielders), and Ciro Immobile, would be integral to the squad. Italy has some seasoned players, such as Gianluigi Buffon, captain and goal keeper, and Andrea Pirlo, who were part of the team that won the 2006 tournament. • According to BSports’s StatsInsights, Italy has the highest chance (63.5%) among Group D countries to qualify among the top 16. Azzuri is expected to at least reach the quarter-finals. However, we believe Italy will find it difficult to progress beyond that stage as likely opponents are either Brazil or Spain.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 4 Goals Against: 5

Arena Amazonia, 14 June 18:00 Manaus England

Arena Pernambuco, 20 June 13:00 Recife Costa Rica

24 June 13:00 Estadio das Dunas, Natal Uruguay

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 39 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW England (ENG) Economy-USD2,536bn/ HDI-26/ FIFA-11

Economy is Growing, Though Footballing Prowess Remains Uncertain

Economic Performance Country Details • England is one of the world‘s biggest economies. Following a Region Northern Europe recession between 2Q08 and 2009 (the first since 1991), the Currency GBP economy grew at an average 1.2% over 2010–13, primarily led by Area Sq. Km. 242,495 increasing consumer spending. In Q1 2014, the economy advanced Population Mn 62.4 0.8% for the fifth consecutive quarter. However, as per the Office Urban Population % 79.8 for National Statistics, UK‘s GDP still remains 0.6% below the Urban Population Growth % 0.8 prerecession level. Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population • In 2010, UK‘s fiscal deficit widened to 11% of GDP, adversely and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010-15, respectively impacted by the recession. However, the deficit has been reducing

since, reaching 6.6% in FY14, the lowest since FY08, led by higher Trade* Price asBalance of Feb 04, 2013 2013 tax receipts. As per Chancellor George Osborne, austerity measures are expected to continue over the next five years. UK is Import USD bn 827 one of the eight countries to witness current account deficit Export USD bn 831 expansion since 2008, led by the Eurozone crisis. Deficit hit GBP70 Balance USD bn 4 billion (4.4% of GDP in 2013), the highest since 1989. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services • In March 2014, UK‘s unemployment rate recorded a five-year low

of 6.8%, in line with Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)‘s threshold Economic Indicators rate of 7%. Bank of England expects unemployment to decline to 5.9% by 2016. However, CPI inflation decelerated to 1.6% in 2012 2013 2014e GDP (USD bn) 2,484 2,536 2,828 March 2014, below the expectation of 2%. GDP/capita (USD) 38,999 39,567 43,830 • Bank of England (BoE) has been steadily slashing its rates from Unemployment (%) 8.0 7.6 6.9 5.75% as of July 2007 to the current record low of 0.5% to boost CPI 123.0 126.1 128.5 the credit situation impacted by the Euro crisis and US financial Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in collapse. The Confederation of British Industry predicts the rate to nominal terms rise to 0.75% in 1Q15 on accelerated growth. • The IMF expects UK‘s GDP to grow 2.9% in 2014. BoE raised its Economic Growth growth forecast to 3.4% from 2.8% earlier. 1.60 4.0 Political Structure 3.0 • England is a democracy functioning within a constitutional 1.55 monarchy structure, wherein the Monarch heads the state and the 2.0

Prime Minister heads the government. Current Prime Minister % In GBP GBP tn 1.50 David Cameron took charge in May 2010. 1.0 • UK is a member of the UN, OECD, G-20, and WTO, among others. 1.45 0.0 Socio-economic Background 2010 2012 2014e • The World Bank classifies UK in the high-income bracket. The Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) country is ranked 26th on the Human Development Index (HDI). HDI of 0.875 places the country in the high human development Source: IMF data and estimates category (group average: 0.64). Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 61.8 62.3 63.3 63.7 64.1 Growth (%) 0.6 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.6 (1.0) GDP/Capita Growth (%) (18.7) 2.8 5.6 0.1 1.5 (2.0) (1.5) Government Revenue 837 893 943 958 1,016 In % In Government Expenditure 1,102 1,139 1,142 1,166 1,172 (3.0) (2.7) (2.7) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 25.6 26.4 27.1 26.7 NA (4.0) (3.3) FDI Inflows 4 61 36 56 NA (3.7)

PPP (GBP/USD) 0.66 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 (5.0) Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA 7.4 NA NA NA 2010 2012 2014e

Source: IMF data and estimates, bank of England, Office of National Statistics; Source: IMF data and estimates Note: GDP/capita is in nominal terms; government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr GBP/USD average exchange rate of 1.66 from Oanda

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2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Premier League is at the top of the English football Player DoB Club Caps Goals league system. Officially known as Barclays Premier Goalkeepers League (BPL), it ranks second among the European leagues, according to the UEFA‘s league coefficients. Fraser Forster 17-Mar-88 Celtic 1 0 The BPL is contested by 20 clubs, including famous Ben Foster 3-Apr-83 W. B. Albion 6 0 names such as Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Joe Hart 19-Apr-87 Manchester City 39 0 Arsenal, and Manchester United. The 2013–14 season Defenders ended with Manchester City at the top. Leighton Baines 11-Dec-84 Everton 22 1 • England‘s national football team has 13 World Cup Gary Cahill 19-Dec-85 Chelsea 22 2 appearances to its names. Having debuted in 1950, the Phil Jagielka 17-Aug-82 Everton 24 1 team‘s best performance came in 1966 when it won the World Cup, followed by a fourth place finish in 1990. Glen Johnson 23-Aug-84 Liverpool 50 1 World Cup 2010 was one of the team‘s worst Phil Jones 21-Feb-92 Manchester United 9 0 performances wherein it lost to Germany in round 16. Luke Shaw 12-Jul-95 Southampton 1 0 • England performed below par in World Cup 2010. The Chris Smalling 22-Nov-89 Manchester United 10 0 team began with two draws against the US (1-1) and Midfielders Algeria (0-0), followed by a win against Slovenia (1-0), Ross Barkley 5-Dec-93 Everton 3 0 finally finishing in the second place. However, the team Steven Gerrard (c) 30-May-80 Liverpool 109 21 ceded to Germany with a 1-4 loss, its biggest defeat J. Henderson 17-Jun-90 Liverpool 8 0 margin in the World Cup. We all remember the controversy over the ―unawarded‖ goal scored by Adam Lallana 10-May-88 Southampton 3 0 Lampard, due to the absence of goal line technology. Frank Lampard 20-Jun-78 Chelsea 103 29 • Jermain Defoe and Steven Gerrard scored one goal James Milner 4-Jan-86 Manchester City 45 1 each in the group stage, followed by Matthew Upson A. Chamberlain 15-Aug-93 Arsenal 14 3 scoring another against Germany in round 16. Raheem Sterling 8-Dec-94 Liverpool 2 0 • Fabio Capello coached England‘s national football team Jack Wilshere 1-Jan-92 Arsenal 15 0 for the World Cup. Current coach Roy Hodgson was Forwards appointed the national coach in May 2012. Rickie Lambert 16-Feb-82 Southampton 4 2 • In World Cup 2014, Wayne Rooney would be Wayne Rooney 24-Oct-85 Manchester United 89 38 England’s biggest talent, having already scored seven goals in six World Cup qualifying starts. In Daniel Sturridge 1-Sep-89 Liverpool 10 3 midfield, captain Gerrard and Frank Lampard Danny Welbeck 26-Nov-90 Manchester United 21 8 would bring in experience, with support from Coach: Roy Hodgson young players Jack Wilshere, Alex Oxlade- Source: fifa.com, uefa.com, national-football-teams.com; Note: Chamberlain, and Raheem Sterling. Danny Current squad consists of players included in the final 2014 World Welbeck and Daniel Sturridge would strengthen Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes captain the team’s attacking options. • According to BSports’s StatInsights, Three Lions have the second highest chance to qualify for round 16 among the group D countries, after Italy. They have a 3.4% chance of winning World Cup 2014. We don’t think England will progress beyond the group stage.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 4 Goals For: 3 Goals Against: 5

Arena Amazonia, 14 June 18:00 Manaus Italy

1 1 Arena de Sao Paulo, Sao 19 June 16:00 Won Paulo Uruguay Drawn Estadio Mineirao, Belo 24 June 13:00 Lost Horizonte Costa Rica

2 Source: fifa.com

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 41 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Costa Rica (CRC) Economy-USD50bn/ HDI-62/ FIFA-34

Battling Tough Economic Conditions and Tougher FIFA Opponents

Economic Performance Country Details • Costa Rica‘s economy expanded ~8% annually during 2006–08, on Region Central America higher exports to the US, its primary trading partner, before Currency Costa Rican Colon contracting by 1.3% in 2009 due to the global financial crisis. The Area Sq. Km. 51,100 government increased spending on social and labor-intensive Population Mn 4.7 infrastructure to boost growth amid the crisis, leading to annual Urban Population % 65.1 growth of ~4.5% during 2010–12. Growth slowed to 3.4% in Urban Population Growth % 2.1 2013. However, an anticipated rise in private consumption and Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population domestic investment is expected to keep growth levels at ~4.0% and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010- over the next few years, according to the World Bank. 15, respectively

• Costa Rica‘s fiscal deficit reached 5.4% of GDP at the end of 2013, Trade* Price asBalance of Feb 04, 2013 2013 up 1% from 2012, and currently stands at USD 2.7 billion, the Import USD bn 20 highest level in at least 10 years. The previous government had Export USD bn 17 forecast that the budget gap would widen to 6% of GDP in 2014. * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 However, President Luis Guillermo Solis, who took office on May 8, Balance USD bn (2) 2014, stated that the new government has intensified efforts to Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services fight tax evasion and would ensure lower fiscal deficit in 2014.

• Costa Rica‘s high fiscal deficit and other structural issues, including Economic Indicators the economy‘s weak infrastructure and high electricity rates weighed heavily on the country‘s business confidence in 1Q14. The 2012 2013 2014e confidence index slipped 10% y/y to its lowest level in two years. GDP (USD bn) 45 50 53 • The country‘s accumulated inflation slipped to 3.68% in 2013. The GDP/capita (USD) 9,753 10,433 10,893 rate of inflation is the lowest in 36 years and below the official Unemployment (%) 7.8 9.0 8.5 target of 4.0–6.0%. Costa Rica‘s central bank has forecast inflation CPI 153.4 161.5 166.1 to be 3.0–5.0% in 2014. Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in nominal terms • Moody‘s lowered its outlook on Costa Rica to negative from stable

in September 2013. The agency, while affirming the country‘s Economic Growth Baa3 government bond rating, cited the rising debt burden and

widening fiscal deficit for the downgrade in outlook. 2.80 5.5 Political Structure 5.0 • Costa Rica is a democratic republic where executive responsibilities 2.60 are held by the President. Elections were held in February 2014, 4.5 2.40

with the President-elect Luis Guillermo Solis, a third-party 4.0 % In CRC CRC tn candidate, winning a record 1.3 million votes (78% of total votes). 2.20 In more than 50 years, Solis is first third-party candidate to be 3.5 elected as the President of Costa Rica. 2.00 3.0 2010 2012 2014e Socio-economic Background • Costa Rica has consistently ranked among the top Latin American Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS)

countries on the World Bank‘s Human Development Index (HDI).

Source: IMF data and estimates

Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 Growth (%) 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 2.2 (2.0) GDP/Capita Growth (%) (2.5) 3.5 3.2 3.8 1.2

Government Revenue 4 5 5 6 6 % In Government Expenditure 6 7 7 8 9 (4.0) (3.5) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) NA NA NA NA NA FDI Inflows NA NA NA NA NA (5.0) (5.1) (6.0) (5.3) (5.3) PPP (CRC/USD) 348.1 371.3 380.7 389.5 402.9 2010 2012 2014e

Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA

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2006 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The Primera División, a professional league for Player DoB Club Caps Goals association football clubs, is at the top of the Costa Goalkeepers Rican league system. Saprissa stood first among the 12 Keylor Navas 15-Dec-86 Levante 51 0 member clubs during Torneo Verano 2014. P. Pemberton 24-May-82 Alajuelense 20 0 • Costa Rica‘s national team, nicknamed La Sele or Los D. Cambronero 14-Feb-87 Herediano 2 0 Ticos, registered its best performance until date in its Defenders first World Cup appearance in 1990, when it advanced Michael Umaña 16-Jul-82 Saprissa 80 1 to the round of 16. After 1990, the team qualified for Júnior Díaz 12-Sep-83 Mainz 05 60 1 the 2002 and 2006 World Cups, and is back in the 2014 Roy Miller 24-Nov-84 NY Red Bulls 46 1 edition after missing out in 2010. G. González 8-Feb-88 Columbus Crew 33 2 • The 2006 World Cup was La Sele‘s worst as it finished Johnny Acosta 21-Jul-83 Alajuelense 26 1 31st out of 32 teams and exited the tournament at the Cristian Gamboa 24-Oct-89 Rosenborg 24 1 group level. In the tournament, Costa Rica was grouped Óscar Duarte 3-Jun-89 Club Brugge 10 0 with hosts Germany, Ecuador, and Poland. The team Heiner Mora 21-Oct-84 Saprissa 21 1 lost its opening match against Germany with a score of 2–4. This was followed by a 0–3 loss against Ecuador, Waylon Francis 20-Sep-90 Columbus Crew 1 0 and a 1–2 loss against Poland. . Midfielders Celso Borges 27-May-88 AIK Solna 60 13 • Out of the three goals scored by Costa Rica in the 2006 C. Bolaños 17-May-84 Copenhagen 53 2 tournament, striker Paulo Wanchope scored two goals and Ronald Gomez scored one. M. Barrantes 4-Oct-83 Aalesund 50 4 J. Miguel Cubero 14-Feb-87 Herediano 34 2 • The current Costa Rican team is being coached by Jorge Yeltsin Tejeda 17-Mar-92 Saprissa 21 0 Luis Pinto. He is serving his second stint as La Sele‘s E. Granados 25-Oct-85 Herediano 11 0 coach after being dismissed following his first engagement in 2004. He was reinstated as the team‘s Diego Calvo 25-Apr-91 Vålerenga 9 1 coach in 2011. Pinto has successfully coached clubs in Forwards South America and Costa Rica. He was the Colombian Bryan Ruiz (c) 18-Aug-85 PSV Eindhoven 61 12 national team‘s coach from 2007 to 2008, but was Joel Campbell 26-Jun-92 Olympiacos 31 9 sacked after the team failed to qualify for the 2010 Randall Brenes 13-Aug-83 Cartaginés 38 8 World Cup. Pinto is working toward strengthening La Marco Ureña 3-May-90 Kuban Krasnodar 22 7 Sele‘s defense, as it would be vital while playing the Coach: Jorge Luis Pinto teams in Group D – Uruguay, Italy, and England – all Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of former World Cup winners. players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes • Strike force of Bryan Ruiz and Joel Campbell is captain likely to play significant role in the Costa Rican team. Campbell has 31 international games and nine goals to his credit, while Ruiz ranks among the best playmakers in the North, Central American, and Caribbean zone. Other key players include Alvaro Saborio, Cristian Bolanos and goalkeeper Keilor Navas. • According to BSports’s StatsInsights, Costa Rica’s team has only a 12.0% probability of reaching the round of 16 and a 3.3% likelihood of reaching the quarter-finals. We predict elimination at the group stage once again.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2006 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 3 Goals Against: 9

Estadio Castelao, 14 June 16:00 Fortaleza Uruguay

Arena Pernambuco, 20 June 13:00 Italy Won Recife Drawn Estadio Mineirao, Belo 24 June 13:00 England Lost Horizonte 3

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 43 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

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GROUP E Switzerland | France | Ecuador | Honduras

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 44 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Switzerland (SUI) Economy-USD651bn/ HDI-9/ FIFA-8

Rock Solid Economy and Football Team!

Economic Performance Country Details • Switzerland is one of Europe‘s most developed, strongest, and Region Western Europe diversified economies. After experiencing a decline in 2009 due to Currency Swiss Franc the global financial crisis, the country‘s economic growth has been Area Sq. Km. 41,285 gradually gaining traction. According to the IMF estimates Population Mn 8.0 economy grew 1.96% in 2013 against government‘s estimate of Urban Population % 73.8 1.8%. Urban Population Growth % 0.5

• As per the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), trade surplus Source: IMF, UN data, C IA; Note: Urban contracted to CHF2.05 billion in March 2014 from CHF2.29bn in population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively February 2014. In 2013, budget surplus stood at 0.2% of GDP led

by lower public expenditures on social security, military, and Trade Balance 2013 government staffing. Budget surplus is expected to improve in 2014 on government‘s planned decrease in borrowings. Import USD bn 253 • The Swiss National Bank (SNB) expects headline inflation to Export USD bn 323 remain at 0.2% in 2014, below the 2% target but higher than Balance USD bn 70 historical levels. Inflation stood at -0.2% in 2013. Since the Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services beginning of 2014, CHF has appreciated 15.65% against the USD

driven by deflationary pressures. IMF projects inflation at 0.2% in Economic Indicators 2014.

• The IMF expects economy to grow 2.1% in 2014 as against 2012 2013 2014e government‘s estimate of 2.2%. Unemployment is anticipated to GDP (USD bn) 631 651 694 average 3.1% in 2014. In May 2013, Moody‘s affirmed GDP/capita (USD) 79,344 81,324 86,145 Switzerland‘s Aaa rating with a stable outlook citing strong Unemployment (%) 2.9 3.2 3.2 economy and high financial strength. CPI 99.3 99.0 99.2 Political Structure Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in • Switzerland, a direct democracy, adopted its current federal nominal terms constitution in 1999 where a law passed by the government can be challenged by a group of citizens. The president (Mr. Didier Economic Growth Burkhalter) is the head of government, and elected for a one-year 0.58 4.0 term. The government follows a rotational policy for presidency. • Transparency International‘s 2013 Corruption Index ranked 0.56 3.0 Switzerland seven of 177 countries 0.54 2.0

• Switzerland is a member of various organizations, including the In % CHF tn UN and WTO. 0.52 1.0 Socio-economic Background • Switzerland is ranked ninth on the Human Development Index 0.50 0.0 2010 2012 2014e (HDI). An HDI of 0.913 puts the country in the very high human

development category (group average: 0.905). Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS)

Source: IMF data and estimates

Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Population (mn) 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 20.0

Growth (%) 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.7 14.8 GDP/Capita Growth (%) (3.7) 2.2 1.1 0.1 1.3 15.0

Government Revenue 210 213 221 221 227 9.9 9.0 9.6 9.6

Government Expenditure 207 212 219 221 227 In % 10.0 Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 28.7 28.1 28.6 28.2 NA FDI Inflows 29 32 24 1 NA 5.0 PPP (CHF/USD) 1.72 1.70 1.68 1.65 1.62 Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA 21.6 NA NA NA 0.0 2010 2012 2014e Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr CHF/USD average exchange rate of 1.13 from Oanda Source: IMF data and estimates

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 45 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The Raiffeisen Super League, also known as the Swiss Player DoB Club Caps Goals Super League, is the highest professional football Goalkeepers association of the Swiss football league system. It Roman Bürki 14-Nov-90 Grasshopper 0 0 currently ranks 13th in Europe, according to the UEFA‘s Diego Benaglio 08-Sep-83 Wolfsburg 55 0 league coefficients. The Swiss Super League is Yann Sommer 17-Dec-88 Basel 5 0 contested by 10 clubs. FC Basel ranked at the top of the league table for the 2013–14 season. Defenders Fabian Schär 20-Dec-91 Basel 5 3 • Switzerland‘s national football team, the Rossocrociati, Reto Ziegler 16-Jan-86 Sassuolo 34 1 has made nine World Cup appearances since 1934. In S. Lichtsteiner 16-Jan-84 Juventus 61 4 2010, they were eliminated in the group stage after Philippe Senderos 14-Feb-85 Valencia 52 5 being ranked third in Group H. Johan Djourou 18-Jan-87 Hamburg 43 1 • Switzerland began the 2010 World Cup in South Africa Steve von Bergen 10-Jun-83 Young Boys 40 0 with a surprise 1-0 victory over Spain. Gelson Ricardo Rodríguez 25-Aug-92 Wolfsburg 19 0 Fernandes gave the team a good start to the Michael Lang 08-Feb-91 Grasshopper 5 1 tournament. However, it could not continue its Midfielders performance in the later group stage matches. The Tranquillo Barnetta 22-May-85 Eintracht Frankfurt 73 10 Rossocrociati, after a 0-1 loss to Chile, finished third in Gökhan İnler (c) 27-Jun-84 Napoli 71 6 the group and were eliminated from the World Cup. Gelson Fernandes 02-Sep-86 Freiburg 46 2 • With one goal, Gelson Fernandes was the lone scorer Valon Behrami 19-Apr-85 Napoli 46 2 for Switzerland in the competition. Blerim Džemaili 12-Apr-86 Napoli 32 1 • The Rossocrociati were coached by Ottmar Hitzfeld Xherdan Shaqiri 10-Oct-91 Bayern München 31 8 during the World Cup. He has been the country‘s head Valentin Stocker 12-Apr-89 Basel 22 3 coach since 2008, and would coach the national team Forwards for the 2014 World Cup. Admir Mehmedi 16-Mar-91 Freiburg 19 1 • The Rossocrociati comprise midfielders Tranquillo Mario Gavranović 24-Nov-89 Zürich 10 4 Barnetta, Gelson Fernandes, captain Gökhan Haris Seferović 22-Feb-92 Real Sociedad 9 1 İnler, and Xherdan Shaqiri as well as Diego Josip Drmić 08-Aug-92 Nürnberg 5 2 Benaglio, Stephan Lichtsteiner, and Philippe Borussia Granit Xhaka 27-Sep-92 24 4 Senderos. The team is known for its strong Mönchengladbach defense and is currently 8th in FIFA rankings. Coach: Ottmar Hitzfeld • Switzerland is paired with the 1998 champion Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes France, Ecuador, and Honduras. According to captain BSports’s StatInsights, France and Switzerland

appear as favorites among Group E countries. Switzerland stands a 49.4% chance to progress to the round of 16. However, Switzerland’s likely opponent in the knockout match is Argentina. We don’t expect any upsets and should see Switzerland being eliminated at that stage from the tournament.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 1 Goals Against: 1

Estadio Nacional, 15 June 13:00 Brasilia Ecuador

Arena Fonte Nova, 20 June 16:00 1 1 Won Salvador France Drawn Arena Amazonia, 25 June 16:00 Lost Manaus Honduras 1 Source: fifa.com

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 46 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW France (FRA) Economy-USD2,737bn/ HDI-20/ FIFA-16

Stagnant Economy and Cyclical Footballing Performance

Economic Performance Country Details • France, the fifth largest economy in the world and second largest Region Western Europe in the Eurozone, experienced recession in the late 2000s. It Currency Euro contracted 3.2% in 2009 vis-à-vis a 4% downturn in the entire Area Sq. Km. 551,500 Eurozone. The economy‘s low dependence on trade, huge social Population Mn 63.1 safety net, and government involvement cushioned the downfall. Urban Population % 86.3 The economy grew at an average 1% from 2010 to 2013. Urban Population Growth % 1.0 Currently, the French economy is showing signs of stagnation, with Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population GDP remaining flat in 1Q14, according to data from Institut and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010- National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE). 15, respectively

• France has experienced fiscal deficit every year since the early * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 1970s. In 2013, the nation recorded a deficit of 4.3% of GDP, Trade Balance 2013 higher than the government‘s target of 4.1%. The deficit is Import USD bn 869 expected to be 3.9% of GDP in 2014. Furthermore, the economy *Export Price as of Feb 04, 2013 USD bn 813 has been running a current account deficit since 2005, which Balance USD bn (56) reached USD44.2 billion or 1.6% of GDP, in 2013. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include • Inflation is on a decline, from a meager 1.0% in 2013 to 0.7% in merchandise and commercial services April 2014, amplifying deflationary fears. The unemployment rate has also been increasing, reaching 10.8% in 2013 from 7.8% in Economic Indicators

2008. It registered a record high of 3.35 million people (or nearly 2012 2013 2014e 10.3%) in March 2014. Notably, France‘s youth unemployment GDP (USD bn) 2,613 2,737 2,886 rate stood at 23.4%. GDP/capita (USD) 41,223 43,000 45,123 • In July 2013, Fitch slashed France's credit rating by one notch to Unemployment (%) 10.2 10.8 11.0 AA+, due to worsening debt outlook and a troubled economic CPI 113.7 114.9 116.0 environment. IMF expects France‘s GDP to grow 1.0% in 2014. Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in Bank of France maintains its growth forecast at 0.2% for 2Q14. nominal terms

Political Structure Economic Growth • France is a semi-presidential representative democracy where President is the head of state and the Prime Minister is head of 1.86 3.0 government. François Hollande of the Socialist Party was elected 1.83 2.0 as President in May 2012.

• France is a member of the EEC, UN, OECD, IMF, G-20, and WTO. 1.80 1.0 In % In Socio-economic Background tn EUR 1.77 0.0 • France is witnessing ageing population due to low birth rates. The aged population hovers at over 16% and is expected to account for 1.74 (1.0) over 25% of total population by 2050. Separately, the nation 2010 2012 2014e boasts of more millionaires than any other European country. Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) • France‘s HDI of 0.893 (as of 2012) is lower than the average of 0.905 for countries in the very high human development group. Source: IMF data and estimates

Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 62.5 62.8 63.1 63.4 63.7 Growth (%) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 (1.0) GDP/Capita Growth (%) (8.2) (2.6) 7.8 (6.6) 4.3

Government Revenue 1,275 1,317 1,392 1,447 1,498 % In (1.3) (1.6) Government Expenditure 1,471 1,506 1,537 1,582 1,617 (2.0) (1.8) (1.7) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 42.5 42.9 44.1 45.3 NA (2.2) FDI Inflows 24 34 39 25 5 PPP (EUR/USD) 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.91 (3.0) 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA 5.9 NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr EUR/USD average exchange rate of 1.37 from Oanda

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 47 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Ligue 1, also known as Le Championnat, is the highest Player DoB Club Caps Goals professional football league in France. The league is Goalkeepers contested by 20 clubs. Paris Saint-Germain was M. Landreau 14-May-79 SC Bastia 11 0 crowned the champions in the 2013–14 season, for Hugo Lloris (c) 26-Dec-86 Tottenham 55 0 second year in a row. Stephane Ruffier 27-Sep-86 AS Saint-Etienne 1 0 • The France national football team Équipe de France de Defenders football (Les Bleus) has made 19 appearances and 13 M. Debuchy 28-Jul-85 Newcastle United 19 2 qualifications thus far in the FIFA World Cup. The team Lucas Digne 20-Jul-93 Paris St-Germain 1 0 won its first and only World Cup title on home soil in P. Latyr Evra 15-May-81 Manchester United 55 0 1998. Other strong performances include the runners- L. Koscielny 10-Sep-85 Arsenal 15 0 up position in 2006 against Italy, third spot in 1958 and E. Mangala 13-Feb-91 FC Porto 2 0 1986, and fourth place in 1982. However, in 2002 (as Bacary Sagna 14-Feb-83 Arsenal 39 0 defending champion) and 2010 (previous tournament‘s finalist), the team was eliminated in group stages. M. Sakho 13-Feb-90 Liverpool 16 2 Raphael Varane 25-Apr-93 Real Madrid 5 0 • World Cup 2006 finalist France attracted a huge Midfielders controversy before the start of the 2010 tournament – Yohan Cabaye 14-Jan-86 Paris St-Germain 27 2 Thierry Henry‘s handball helped France in scoring the decisive goal against Ireland in the play-off. The team Clement Grenier 7-Jan-91 Olym. Lyonnais 3 0 started with a 0-0 draw against Uruguay. This was Blaise Matuidi 9-Apr-87 Paris Saint-Germain 20 1 followed by a 0-2 loss against Mexico and another 1-2 R. A. Mavuba 8-Mar-84 Lille 9 0 defeat against South Africa. This poor performance was P. Labile Pogba 15-Mar-93 Juventus 8 1 blamed on disciplinary issues within the team. Nicolas Moussa Sissoko 16-Aug-89 Newcastle United 14 0 Anelka, Patrice Evra, Franck Ribéry, Jérémy Toulalan, M. Valbuena 28-Sep-84 Olym. Marseille 31 5 and Éric Abidal were summoned for not executing their Forwards duties, with the first four banned for 18, five, three, Karim Benzema 19-Dec-87 Real Madrid 65 19 and one games, respectively. Olivier Giroud 30-Sep-86 Arsenal 27 5 • Florent Malouda was the only scorer in World Cup 2010 A. Griezmann 21-Mar-91 Real Sociedad 1 0 with one goal against South Africa. Loic Remy* 2-Jan-87 Newcastle United 22 4 • Raymond Domenech coached Les Bleus during World Franck Ribery 7-Apr-83 Bayern Muenchen 81 16 Cup 2010. Domenech's six-year term as coach ended, Coach: Didier Deschamps following the team‘s dismal performance in World Cup Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of 2010 and he was also dismissed as a member of the players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes French Football Federation. In July 2012, Didier captain *L. Remy is on loan from QPR Deschamps was named the new coach. • Qualification for this year’s tournament was once again labored. France played Ukraine in the playoffs and lost the first leg 0-2. In the return leg, the team managed a miraculous recovery and won 3-0 (aggregate 3-2) to qualify. For this year’s edition, France will rely heavily on top- drawer goalkeeper, Hugo Lloris, defenders Laurent Koscielny and Raphael Varane, and Midfielders Franck Ribery and Paul Pogba, while Karim Benzema and Olivier Giroud will be the main strike force. • According to BSports’s StatInsights, the team has the highest chance among group E countries to qualify for round 16. France has a 39.8% chance to qualify in the quarter-finals and a 4% chance of winning World Cup 2014.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule FIFA World Cup 2010 Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 1 Goals Against: 4

Estadio Beira-Rio, Porto June 15 16:00 Alegre Honduras

Arena Fonte Nova, June 20 16:00 1 Won Salvador Switzerland Drawn Estádio do Maracanã, Rio June 25 17:00 Lost De Janeiro Ecuador 2

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 48 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Ecuador (ECU) Economy-USD94bn/ HDI-89/ FIFA-26

Rising from the Economic Crisis - Staging a Comeback in the World

Cup

Economic Performance Country Details • The OPEC‘s smallest member, Ecuador, is the fifth largest oil Region South America producer in Central and South America. After a brief slowdown in Currency U.S. Dollar 2009, its economy recovered the subsequent year and posted Area Sq. Km. 256,369 growth of 7.8% in 2011. Economic growth remained robust at Population Mn 15.8 4.5% in 2013, driven by the non-oil sector, mainly construction. Urban Population % 58.1 Although well above the official forecast of 4.05%, growth was Urban Population Growth % 2.0 lower than 5.1% in 2012. The non-oil sector expanded 4.9%, while Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban the oil sector grew 1.4%. population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively • Ecuador‘s economy is majorly driven by petroleum products that account for over 50% and 40% of total exports and government revenue, respectively. According to WTO estimates, trade deficit Trade Balance 2013 widened to USD4 billion in 2013 due to higher imports (up 7% Import USD bn 31 y/y). Fuel imports are likely to rise further in 2014 due to Export USD bn 27 shutdown of the country‘s largest oil refinery, Esmeraldas. Balance USD bn (4) • Inflation stood at 2.7% in 2013, below the government‘s target of Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include 3.93 and 2011 level of 5.41%. The official estimates put inflation merchandise and commercial services at 3.2% in 2014, whereas the rate was 3.23% in April 2014. Economic Indicators • Ecuador is likely to return to the international bond market in 1H14, six years after it officially defaulted on USD3.2 billion of 2012 2013 2014e debt despite its ability to pay. In December 2008, President Correa GDP (USD bn) 88 94 101 declared the debt ―illegitimate‖, as the preceding administration GDP/capita (USD) 5,638 5,968 6,322 contracted it illegally. Debt stood at 25.4% of GDP in 2013. Unemployment (%) 4.9 4.7 5.0 • The IMF expects GDP growth to moderate at 4.2% in 2014 due to CPI 139.8 143.6 147.7 lower oil exports. Thereafter, growth is likely to stabilize at around Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in 3.5%. In August 2013, S&P revised Ecuador‘s ‗B‘ credit rating nominal terms outlook to positive from stable. It also noted that the rating could be upgraded if it regains access to international capital markets. Economic Growth (real) Political Structure 0.07 12.0 • Ecuador is a presidential democratic republic where the president is the head of state and government. The current President Rafael 0.06 8.0 Correa Delgado took office in January 2007. In In %

• Ecuador is a member of the UN, Bolivarian Alliance for the USD tn 0.05 4.0 Americas (ALBA), G-11, OPEC, and WTO, among others. Socio-economic Background 0.04 0.0 • Inclusive economic growth reduced Ecuador‘s poverty levels from 2010 2012 2014e 37.6% in 2006 to 25.5% in 2013. The Gini index came down from Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) 54 in 2006 to 48.5 in 2013, reflecting a decline in inequality. However, sustainability of these accomplishments is a concern. Source: IMF data and estimates, Banco Central del Ecuador Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Population (mn) 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 0.0 Growth (%) 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 (0.3) GDP/Capita Growth (%) (0.6) 9.2 12.8 7.9 5.9 (0.3) Government Revenue 18 23 31 35 37 (1.0) Government Expenditure 21 24 31 35 41 In In % Tax Revenue (% of GDP) NA NA NA NA NA (1.5) (2.0) FDI Inflows 0 0 1 1 NA

PPP (USD/USD)* 0.51 0.54 0.57 0.58 0.59 (2.3) (2.4) Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA (3.0) Source: IMF data and estimates, World Bank; note: GDP/capita growth is in 2010 2012 2014e

nominal terms; * Ecuador adopted USD as the national currency since 2000 Source: IMF data and estimates

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 49 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2006 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Serie A, also known as the Primera A, is the highest Player DoB Club Caps Goals professional football league in Ecuador. Twelve teams Goalkeepers participate in the championship. Emelec is the Máximo Banguera 16-Dec-85 Barcelona 22 0 defending champion for the 2014 season. Adrián Bone 08-Jan-88 El Nacional 3 0 • At Brazil 2014, Ecuador will make its third World Cup A. Domínguez 05-Jun-87 LDU Quito 18 0 appearance. While the team debuted in South Korea/ Defenders Japan 2002, its finest performance came in 2006 when Gabriel Achilier 24-Mar-85 Emelec 20 0 the team qualified to the last 16. However, the team Óscar Bagüí 10-Dec-82 Emelec 20 0 failed to qualify for the 2010 World Cup held in South Africa. Frickson Erazo 05-May-88 Flamengo 34 1 Jorge Guagua 28-Sep-81 Emelec 56 2 • In 2006, Ecuador was grouped with the hosts Germany, Walter Ayoví 11-Aug-79 Pachuca 88 8 Poland and Costa Rica. The team won two matches at Juan Carlos Paredes 08-Jul-87 Barcelona 35 0 the group stage and finished second in the pool after losing its final group stage match to Germany. Ecuador Midfielders defeated Poland 2-0 in its opening match and claimed Segundo Castillo 15-May-82 Al-Hilal 79 9 another win against Costa Rica with a comfortable 3-0. Carlos Gruezo 19-Apr-95 Stuttgart 0 0 However, it lost 0-3 to the eventual third-place winners Renato Ibarra 20-Jan-91 Vitesse 17 0 Germany. Ecuador was eliminated from the tournament Fidel Martínez 15-Feb-90 Tijuana 6 2 following a 0-1 defeat at the hands of England in the Édison Méndez 16-Mar-79 Santa Fe 109 18 round-of-16 match. Christian Noboa 09-Apr-85 Dynamo Moscow 40 2 • Luis Fernando Suárez — the current manager of Luis Saritama 20-Oct-83 Barcelona 48 0 Ecuador‘s group E counterpart Honduras — led the Antonio Valencia (c) 04-Aug-85 Man. United 68 8 team to the round of 16 for the first time in 2006. He Forwards resigned in October 2009 following the team‘s dismal Jaime Ayoví 21-Feb-88 Tijuana 28 9 performance during the 2010 World Cup qualifiers. Felipe Caicedo 05-Sep-88 Al-Jazira 47 15 Currently, Reinaldo Rueda is in charge of the Jefferson Montero 01-Sep-89 Morelia 37 7 Ecuadorian national team. Rueda coached the João Rojas 14-Jun-89 Cruz Azul 27 2 Honduran national side for almost three years (2007– Enner Valencia 04-Nov-89 Pachuca 8 2 10). His preferred formation is 4-4-2 and 4-4-1-1 Michael Arroyo 23-Apr-87 Atlante 19 2 depending on the opponents side. Coach: Reinaldo Rueda • Ecuador has several experienced players with Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of near half-century of caps. Key players would be players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes the team’s leading scorer Édison Méndez, captain captain Antonio Valencia, Cristian Noboa, Felipe Caicedo and Jefferson Montero, along with veterans Walter Ayoví and Segundo Castillo. • Although the team lacks recent world cup experience, their performance in the 2014 World Cup qualifiers was encouraging. It won all its matches at home, barring a draw against Argentina, and drew three away matches. Ecuador gained direct entry to the finals after it was placed fourth in the nine-nation CONMEBOL group, ahead of Uruguay. Placed with France, Switzerland and Honduras, Ecuador has close to 50% chance of qualifying to the knockout stage ahead of Switzerland. According to BSports’s StatsInsights, progress beyond the round of 16 is unlikely, as it is likely to face Argentina. We rank Ecuador as a dark horse in the group.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2006 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 4 Goals For: 5 Goals Against: 4

Estadio Nacional, 15 June 13:00 Brasilia Switzerland

Arena da Baixada, 20 June 19:00 Curitiba Honduras

Estádio do Maracanã, 25 June 17:00 Rio De Janeiro France

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 50 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Honduras (HON) Economy-USD19bn/ HDI-120/ FIFA-30

A Faltering economy and a Feeble Football Team

Economic Performance Country Details • Honduras, one of the poorest economies in the Americas, grew at Region Central America 5.1% over 2000–08. However, Honduras‘s GDP declined in 2009 Currency Lempira due to global recession. Moreover, the expulsion of President Area Sq. Km. 112,492 Manuel Zelaya during the constitutional crisis of 2009 impacted the Population Mn 7.8 economy. Over 2010–13, the growth recovered at 3.5%, led by Urban Population % 52.7 public investments, higher exports, and increasing remittances. Urban Population Growth % 3.1 • Fears of violence and expanding fiscal deficit remain a cause of Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban concern. The deficit widened to 7.7% of GDP in 2013 from 5.9% in population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively 2012. However, the central bank forecasts the deficit to drop to

5.2% in 2014, supported by around USD800 million increase in Trade Balance 2013 annual tax revenue. The growth is a result of largest tax overhaul that occurred in December 2013. Import USD bn 13 Export USD bn 9 • The economy is highly reliant on exports which account for 30% of the GDP. Current account deficit rose from 3.8% to 8.8% of the Balance USD bn (4) GDP over 2009–13, due to lower coffee exports and fluctuating Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services commodity prices. Additionally, high dependence on agriculture and commodity prices led to high inflation, at 6% in April 2014. Economic Indicators • Honduras has the highest income inequality and unemployment in Latin America. Underemployment increased significantly, with 2012 2013 2014e visible underemployment rising to 10% of the labor force and GDP (USD bn) 19 19 20 invisible underemployment to 43.6% in 2012. GDP/capita (USD) 2,331 2,323 2,368 • The IMF expects Honduras‘s GDP to grow 3.0% in 2014 compared Unemployment (%) 4.4 4.4 4.5 with central bank‘s estimate of 3.5%. The economy is expected to CPI 247.4 260.2 274.5 benefit from the recovery of its main trading partner, the US. Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in nominal terms Standard & Poor downgraded Honduras‘s credit rating to B from

B+ due to expanding debt burden amid limited funding ability. Economic Growth Political Structure 0.20 6.0 • Honduras is a presidential representative democracy. The President heads both the state and the government. Current President Juan Orlando Hernandez took charge in January 2014. 0.18 4.0 • Honduras is a member of the UN and WTO. In In % Socio-economic Background HNL tn 0.16 2.0 • Nearly 65% of Honduras‘s population lives in poverty. The poverty rate rose 13.2% and extreme poverty rate edged up 26.3% over 0.14 0.0 2010–12. The cost of crime is high with violence cost accounting 2010 2012 2014e for nearly 10% of the GDP, as per the World Bank estimates. Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) • The World Bank classifies Honduras in the low-income bracket. An HDI of 0.632 places the country below the average of 0.67. Source: IMF data and estimates

Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.1

Growth (%) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 (4.0) GDP/Capita Growth (%) 3.0 6.4 9.7 5.9 4.0 (4.3) Government Revenue 3 4 4 4 4 In % Government Expenditure 4 4 4 5 6 (8.0) (7.4) (8.0) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 14.2 14.4 14.8 14.7 NA (8.6) (8.8) FDI Inflows 1 1 1 NA NA (12.0) PPP (HNL/USD) 8.60 8.90 9.41 9.62 9.81 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) 16.0 15.7 15.0 15.0 14.0 Source: IMF data and estimates, World Bank, Indexmundi; Note: GDP/capita Source: IMF data and estimates growth is in nominal terms; government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr HNL/USD average exchange rate of 0.05 from Oanda

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 51 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras is the Player DoB Club Caps Goals highest professional football division in Honduras. Ten Goalkeepers teams compete in the championship. Olimpia topped Donis Escober 03-Feb-81 Olimpia 19 0 the 2013–14 season. Luis López 13-Sep-93 Real España 0 0 • Honduras national football team (Los Catrachos) has N. Valladares (c) 03-May-77 Olimpia 119 0 made only two World Cup appearances thus far. After Defenders debuting in 1982, the team returned to FIFA World Cup Juan C. García 08-Mar-88 Wigan Athletic 33 1 after 28 years in 2010. In the 1982 World Cup, the Juan P. Montes 26-Dec-85 Motagua 9 1 team began with two draws and later ceded to Yugoslavia with a 0-1 loss. Brayan Beckeles 28-Nov-85 Olimpia 21 1 Víctor Bernárdez 24-May-82 SJ Earthquakes 74 3 • World Cup 2010 was the team‘s worst performance. Osman Chávez 29-Jul-84 Qingdao Jonoon 52 0 Honduras was placed with Spain, Switzerland, and Chile Maynor Figueroa 02-May-83 Hull City 100 3 in Group H. Los Catrachos began World Cup 2010 with Johnny Leverón 07-Feb-90 V. Whitecaps 22 3 a loss against Chile (0-1) and Spain (0-2), followed by Emilio Izaguirre 10-May-86 Celtic 64 1 a draw against Switzerland (0-0). The team finished Midfielders last in the group stage. Marvin Chávez 03-Nov-83 Chivas USA 39 4 • Carlos Pavon was the key player during FIFA 2010. Jorge Claros 08-Jan-86 Motagua 47 3 Maynor Figueroa, Víctor Bernárdez, David Suazo, and Roger Espinoza 25-Oct-86 Wigan Athletic 39 3 Wilson Palacios were some of the other key players in Óscar García 04-Sep-84 Houston Dynamo 90 2 the World Cup. Luis Garrido 05-Nov-90 Olimpia 18 0 • Reinaldo Rueda was the coach of Honduras national Mario Martínez 30-Jul-89 Real España 34 3 football team for the World Cup. Current coach Luis Andy Najar 16-Mar-93 Anderlecht 16 1 Fernando Suárez was appointed the national coach in Wilson Palacios 29-Jul-84 Stoke City 91 5 March 2011. Forwards • In World Cup 2014, Emilio Izaguirre, who was Jerry Bengtson 08-Apr-87 NE Revolution 41 19 awarded the player of the year at the Scottish Carlo Costly 18-Jul-82 Real España 67 30 Premier League, is the backbone of Honduras's Rony Martínez 16-Oct-87 Real Sociedad 7 1 backline. He will be supported by captain and Jerry Palacios 13-May-82 Alajuelense 21 5 goalkeeper Noel Valladares who has been performing consistently. Wilson Palacios, Carlo Coach: Luis Fernando Suarez Costly, and the emerging Jerry Bengtson are Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of some other key players to watch out for. players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes captain • According to BSports’s StatsInsights, Los Catrachos are once again most likely to exit at the group stage.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 0 Goals Against: 3

Estadio Beira-Rio, Porto 15 June 16:00 Alegre France

Arena da Baixada, 20 June 19:00 1 Won Curitiba Ecuador Drawn Arena Amazonia, 25 June 16:00 Lost Manaus Switzerland 2

Source: fifa.com

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GROUP F Argentina | Bosnia | Iran | Nigeria

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 53 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Argentina (ARG) Economy-USD488bn/ HDI-45/ FIFA-7

Vying to Regain Lost Economic and Footballing Glory

Economic Performance Country Details • Argentina, recently surpassed by Columbia as Latin America‘s Region South America third-largest economy, suffers from a weakening peso, depleting Currency Argentine Peso currency reserves, rising inflation, and slow growth. Argentina‘s Area Sq. Km. 2,780,400 economy has been in and out of crisis almost every two decades, Population Mn 41.5 and could be inching toward another. According to Instituto Urban Population % 92.6 Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC), GDP grew 3% in 2013, Urban Population Growth % 1.1 below the 3.2% level required to service economy-linked bonds. Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban • The government has allowed the currency to depreciate while it population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively gains control over diminishing currency reserves (fell to a seven- year low of USD27.7 billion at end-January 2014). The reserves are the country‘s only source for paying foreign creditors, after it Trade Balance 2013 was cut off from international capital markets during 2002. Import USD bn 93 • The country has recently reached a restructuring agreement with Export USD bn 97 creditors from Paris Club under which it will need to pay USD9.7 Balance USD bn 4 billion over five years to settle claims outstanding from the USD95 Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include billion default in 2001. This settlement, along with earlier deals merchandise and commercial services reached with the World Bank and Repsol, will help the country make a much needed re-entry into international debt markets. Economic Indicators • Although INDEC reported inflation at 10.9% as of December 2013, 2012 2013 2014e market sources speculate that the rate for 2013 was above 25%. GDP (USD bn) 475 488 404 Argentina launched a new index for consumer prices in February GDP/capita (USD) 11,582 11,766 9,640 2014, after the IMF censured the country for inaccurate data. Unemployment (%) 7.2 7.1 7.6 • Argentina‘s trade surplus shrank 95% y/y to USD41 million in CPI 322.0 356.2 NA March 2014, led by a fall in exports. However, the surplus is likely Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in to expand due to a record soybean crop expected in April and July nominal terms (Argentina is among the top soybean exporters). This should help the government build its foreign exchange reserves. Economic Growth • The IMF expects Argentina to grow 0.5% in 2014 and 1% in 2015. 0.50 12.0 Moody‘s downgraded Argentina‘s rating to Caa1 from B3 due to declining foreign reserves and an inconsistent policy environment. It expects devaluation pressure to continue - the currency is 0.45 8.0 estimated to fall to 12 pesos per dollar by end-2014 from about 8. In In % Political Structure ARS tn 0.40 4.0 • Argentina is a federal constitutional republic where the president is the head of state and government. Current president Cristina 0.35 0.0 Fernandez De Kirchner‘s term expires in 2015. 2010 2012 2014e • Argentina is a member of G-15, G-20, UN, WTO, and Mercosur. Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) Socio-economic Background

• In 2013, the poverty rate in Argentina was estimated at 25% by Source: IMF data and estimates, INDEC the Argentine Catholic University (official figure: 5%). Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.4 0.3 Population (mn) 39.7 40.1 40.6 41.0 41.5 Growth (%) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 GDP/Capita Growth (%) 9.8 24.5 26.2 16.2 22.2 (0.1)

Government Revenue 50 68 87 110 144 In % (0.4) Government Expenditure 55 70 95 121 155 (0.6) (0.5) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 31.5 33.5 34.7 37.3 NA (0.8) FDI Inflows 4 7 9 11 NA (0.9) PPP (ARS/USD) 1.98 2.26 2.60 2.94 3.44 (1.2) Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA 2010 2012 2014e

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2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The Primera División is Argentina‘s premier football Player DoB Club Caps Goals division. It ranks at the top of the Argentine football Goalkeepers league system. Meanwhile, Argentina ranked fourth, Sergio Romero 22-Feb-87 Monaco 45 0 behind its CONMEBOL counterparts – Brazil, Colombia Agustin Orion 26-Jul-81 Boca Juniors 3 0 and Uruguay – in the FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings as of Mariano Andújar 30-Jul-83 Catania 10 0 May 2014. River Plate dominated the 20-club league in the 2013–14 season. Defenders Pablo Zabaleta 16-Jan-85 Man. City 36 0 • Argentina, the 1978 and 1986 world champions, has Marcos Rojo 20-Mar-90 Sporting 20 0 appeared four times in the final. However, the national Federico Fernández 21-Feb-89 Napoli 24 2 team, popularly known as La Albiceleste, has not been José M. Basanta 03-Aug-84 Monterrey 8 0 able to progress beyond the quarter-finals since the Ezequiel Garay 10-Oct-86 Benfica 18 0 1990 World Cup in Italy. Hugo Campagnaro 27-Jun-80 Internazionale 13 0 • Argentina played five matches during the 2010 World Martín Demichelis 20-Dec-80 Man. City 37 2 Cup, out of which it won four. Argentina topped the Midfielders group with three comfortable wins, scoring a total of Maxi Rodríguez 08-Jun-84 Newell's Old Boys 53 15 seven goals against: Nigeria (1-0), Korea (4-1), and Javier Mascherano 08-Jun-84 Barcelona 96 2 Greece (2-0). Argentina defeated Mexico in the round Fernando Gago 10-Apr-86 Boca Juniors 47 0 of 16 to qualify for the quarter-finals. However, they Ángel Di María 14-Feb-88 Real Madrid 45 9 lost the quarter-final to Germany by 0-4. Lucas Biglia 30-Jan-86 Lazio 17 0 • Argentina was among the tournament‘s top five scorers Augusto Fernández 10-Apr-86 Celta 6 1 with 10 goals. Furthermore, striker Gonzalo Higuain Ricardo Álvarez 12-Apr-88 Internazionale 5 0 scored the first hat-trick of the championship in a 4-1 Enzo Pérez 22-Feb-86 Benfica 6 1 victory against Korea. With four goals, Higuain was the Forwards tournament‘s second-highest scorer behind Müller, Gonzalo Higuaín 10-Dec-87 Napoli 36 20 Villa, Sneijder, and Forlán, scoring five each. Lionel Messi (c) 24-Jun-87 Barcelona 84 37 • The Argentine team was coached by Diego Maradona Sergio Agüero 02-Jun-88 Man. City 50 21 during the 2010 World Cup. Alejandro Sabella, the Rodrigo Palacio 05-Feb-82 Internazionale 21 2 current national coach, was appointed in 2011. He Ezequiel Lavezzi 03-May-85 Paris St-Germain 29 4 named Messi as the team captain soon after. Coach: Alejandro Sabella • The Argentine squad includes Barcelona ace Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of Lionel Messi, arguably the best footballer of players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes current era (some will say Christiano Ronaldo but captain we don’t agree). Nicknamed La Pulga, he won the FIFA Ballon d'Ors four consecutive times (2009– 12). Sergio Agüero, Gonzalo Higuaín, and Ángel Di María would be supporting him. While blessed with unparalleled attacking prowess, it is the defense which is a weak point for the team. • According to BSports’s StatInsights, La Albiceleste has the third-highest chance of winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup, trailing only Brazil and Germany. We expect Argentina to lift the trophy this time.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 5 Goals For: 10 Goals Against: 6

Estádio do Maracanã, 15 June 19:00 Bosnia and Rio De Janeiro Herzegovina 1 Estadio Mineirao, Belo 21 June 13:00 Won Horizonte Iran Drawn Estadio Beira-Rio, Porto 25 June 13:00 Lost Alegre Nigeria 4 Source: fifa.com

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 55 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH) Economy-USD18bn/ HDI-81/ FIFA-25

The Debutant Emerging out of the Economic Slowdown

Economic Performance Country Details • Bosnia and Herzegovina faced inter-ethnic warfare from 1992 to Region Southern Europe 1995, leading to a steep drop in economic activity and surge in Currency Convertible Marka unemployment. Output improved during 1996–99, but slowed Area Sq. Km. 51,209 during 2000–02. It recovered strongly during 2003–08, Population Mn 3.8 accompanied with more that 5% GDP growing annually. However, Urban Population % 48.8 the impact of global economic crisis pulled the country‘s GDP lower Urban Population Growth % 1.1 by about 3% in 2009. Weak domestic demand (led by high Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population unemployment, which currently stands at ~30%), an unfavorable and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and external environment, and political stalemate stalled economic 2010-15, respectively recovery after 2009. However, GDP expanded 1% in 2013. The economy is projected to expand in 2014, supported by improving Trade* Price asBalance of Feb 04, 2013 2013 economic conditions in Europe, a remarkable feat indeed. Import USD bn 11

Export USD bn 7 • Bosnia‘s inflation remains low, reflecting weak domestic demand. * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 Business Monitor International (BMI) lowered its estimate for Balance USD bn (4) annual inflation in 2013 to 0.8% from a previous estimate of 1.8%. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include It also slashed its forecast for 2014 to 2.0% from the earlier 3.0%. merchandise and commercial services Unemployment rate at 27% remains a big challenge. Economic Indicators • Bosnia‘s government agreed to a 24-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) of EUR405.3 million with the IMF in September 2012 to 2012 2013 2014e support its economic program for 2012–14. This arrangement was GDP (USD bn) 17 18 19 extended in January 2014 until mid-2015 in order to cover the GDP/capita (USD) 4,353 4,598 4,940 election period in October 2014. The SBA aims to reduce the Unemployment (%) 28.0 27.0 25.5 country‘s fiscal deficit through structural reforms. It also supports CPI 143.2 143.1 144.7 the authorities in enhancing the composition of public expenditure Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in and increasing spending toward growth-supporting investments. nominal terms

• The country‘s EU approximation process has been held up due to Economic Growth limited progress on reforms by the country‘s political leadership.

• At end-2013, Moody's stated that Bosnia‘s B3 rating (with a stable 0.03 3.0 outlook) is constrained by its complex political system, falling 2.0 productive base, wide external deficit and high unemployment. 0.03 Political Structure 1.0 0.03

• The country has a democratic political system, where the Council of 0.0 % In BAM tnBAM Ministers is the head of government. Polls for presidential and 0.02 general elections would be held in October 2014. (1.0) • It is a member of various organizations, including the Council of 0.02 (2.0) Europe, UNICEF, UNDP, USAID and WHO. 2010 2012 2014e Socio-economic Background Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS)

• In 2012, the country ranked 81st on the World Bank‘s HDI and was placed in the ―high human development‖ category. However, its Source: IMF data and estimates 2012 HDI of 0.735 is below the average of 0.758 for countries in the high human development group. Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 (3.0) Growth (%) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) GDP/Capita Growth (%) (2.5) 2.5 3.8 0.0 2.2

In % In (6.0) Government Revenue 8 8 8 8 8 (5.6) (6.2) Government Expenditure 9 9 9 9 9 (9.0) (7.5) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) NA NA NA NA NA (9.7) FDI Inflows NA NA NA NA NA (9.8) (12.0) PPP (BAM/USD) 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.82 0.82 2010 2012 2014e

Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr BAM/USD average exchange rate of 0.70 from Oanda

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Maiden World Cup Appearance Current Squad

• The Premijer liga is the highest football league in Player DoB Club Caps Goals Bosnia and Herzegovina and is contested by 16 clubs. Goalkeepers HSK Zrinjski topped the league table during the 2013– Asmir Avdukic 13-May-81 B. Banja Luka 3 0 14 season. Asmir Begovic 20-Jun-87 Stoke City 28 0 • The 2014 FIFA World Cup would be Bosnia‘s maiden Jasmin Fejzic 15-May-86 Aalen 0 0 appearance in a major football tournament – the only Defenders debutant in this year‘s competition. The country beat Ermin Bicakcic 24-Jan-90 E. Braunschweig 7 1 Greece 1–0 to capture the first spot in its qualifying Sead Kolasinac 20-Jun-93 Schalke 04 2 0 group. In the qualifiers, the team played a dynamic, Toni Sunjic 15-Dec-88 Zorya Lugansk 5 0 attacking game, evident in the fact that it scored 30 Ognjen Vranje 24-Oct-89 Elazigspor 11 0 goals in 10 qualifying games. Avdija Vrsajevic 6-Mar-86 Hajduk Split 12 0 • Prior to this, the team had come close to qualifying for Mensur Mujdza 28-Mar-84 SC Freiburg 22 0 major tournaments a few times. The team lost to Emir Spahic 18-Aug-80 Bayer Leverkusen 72 3 Portugal in play-offs for both 2010 FIFA World Cup and Midfielders UEFA Euro 2012. During the qualifiers for World Cup 2006, Euro 2004, and Euro 2012, the team only needed Muhamed Besic 10-Sep-92 Ferencvarosi TC 7 0 to score a win in its final game to be a part of the Anel Hadzic 16-Aug-89 Sturm Graz 1 0 tournament. Izet Hajrovic 4-Aug-91 Galatasaray 6 1 Senijad Ibricic 26-Sep-85 Erciyesspor 41 4 • The Bosnian team is being coached by former Yugoslavia forward Safet Susic. He took over the role in H. Medunjanin 8-Mar-85 Gaziantepspor 34 5 December 2009, succeeding Miroslav Blazevic, who Z. Misimovic 5-Jun-82 Guizhou Renhe 79 25 guided Croatia to the semi-finals in 1998 and steered Senad Lulic 18-Jan-86 Lazio 32 1 Bosnia to the 2010 playoffs. Susic was a gifted forward Miralem Pjanic 2-Apr-90 Roma 46 8 with quick feet, outstanding skill and vision in his Sejad Salihovic 8-Oct-84 1899 Hoffenheim 40 4 playing days, and he has instilled the same philosophy Tino-Sven Susic 13-Feb-92 Hajduk Split 1 0 in his players. Forwards • In the 2014 FIFA World Cup, Bosnia’s key players Edin Dzeko 17-Mar-86 Man. City 60 33 would be strikers Edin Dzeko (Manchester City) Vedad Ibisevic 6-Aug-84 Stuttgart 53 20 and Vedad Ibisevic, midfielders Miralem Pjanic Edin Visca 17-Feb-90 Istanbul BBSK 8 0 (Roma) and Zvjezdan Misimovic, defender Emir Coach: Safet Susic Spahic (Bayer Leverkusen), and goalkeeper Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of Asmir Begovic (Stoke City). Most of the squad is a players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes part of Europe’s biggest leagues and has the captain required experience to perform in the world’s largest football event. • Argentina is the clear favorite in the group, but Bosnia stands a chance to reach the knockout round. However, at the knockout stage, Bosnia could end up facing France, which will dampen the country‘s chances of qualifying for the quarter-finals. Although, we believe an upset is possible given France‘s unpredictable form. According to BSports’s StatsInsights, Bosnia and Herzegovina has a 43.7% probability of qualifying for the round of 16 and a 16.4% probability of making it to the quarter-finals.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2002 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 10 Goals For: 30 Goals Against: 6

15 June 19:00 Maracana, Rio de Janeiro Argentina 1

1 Won 21 June 18:00 Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba Nigeria Drawn Mangabeira, Salvador 25 June 13:00 Iran Lost De Bahia 8 Source: fifa.com

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 57 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Iran (IRN) Economy-USD366bn/ HDI-76/ FIFA-37

Reviving Hopes for Economy – Growing Faith in Football

Economic Performance Country Details • Iran has been witnessing slower economic growth after 2006 due Region South Central Asia to unfavorable domestic policies and weak external environment. Currency Iranian Rial Economic performance deteriorated after implementation of the Area Sq. Km. 1,628,750 targeted subsidy reform plan in 2010 and intensified international Population Mn 74.8 sanctions in 2012. GDP contracted 1.3% in 2013 on the back of a Urban Population % 69.2 sharp fall in oil exports. The economy is expected to grow a mere Urban Population Growth % 1.3 1% in 2014. The World Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.8% and Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population 2.0% for 2015 and 2016, respectively. and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010- 15, respectively • International sanctions have significantly lowered Iran‘s oil * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 exports. At the end of 2011, oil exports totaled 2.2 million barrels Trade Balance 2013 per day and revenues from oil export (constituting 80% of the Import USD bn 61 country‘s export earnings) totaled USD95 billion. Exports and * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 related earnings have been reduced to half after the US and EU Export USD bn 89 initiated sanctions on Iran in mid-2012. Balance USD bn 27 • Hassan Rouhani‘s election as the President in June 2013 signifies Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services economic stability. He pledged to tackle the international isolation faced by Iran, generate employment, and contain inflation. In his first 100 days in office, Rouhani initiated conversation with the US Economic Indicators President Barack Obama and reached an interim accord with the 2012 2013 2014e world powers over Iran‘s nuclear program. The deal with the P5+1 GDP (USD bn) 398 366 406 (including the US, the UK, France, China and Russia plus Germany) GDP/capita (USD) 5,229 4,751 5,193 requires Iran to curtail uranium enrichment in exchange for partial Unemployment (%) 12.2 12.9 14.0 sanctions relief of about USD7 billion over six months. A final CPI 130.5 176.5 217.0 resolution is expected within this year. Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in • According to Rouhani‘s new budget for FY2015 (effective March 21, nominal terms 2014), the contribution of oil revenue to total revenues would drop to 35% in FY2015 from 42% in FY2014. Expenditure is expected to Economic Growth rise a modest ~9% y/y, down from 31% last year. • CPI is slowing down gradually after the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) 560.00 8.0 tightened credit in the banking system and the government opted 540.00 4.0 for fiscal consolidation. Inflation rose 23% y/y in February 2014

against 29% in January 2014 and 45% in June 2013. 520.00 0.0 In % In Political Structure tnIRR • Iran‘s political system combines elements of a modern Islamic 500.00 (4.0) theocracy (or unelected religious leadership) with democracy. 480.00 (8.0) • The country is a member of various organizations including the G- 2010 2012 2014e 19, G-24, G-77, OPEC, IAEA, IMF, UN and IAEA. Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) Socio-economic Background • The country reported the second highest drop (next to the Republic Source: IMF data and estimates of Korea) in HDI shortfall among developing countries over the

period between 1990 and 2012. Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12.0 11.0 Population (mn) 73.2 74.3 75.2 76.1 77.1 10.0 8.1 Growth (%) 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.3 8.0 6.5 6.6 GDP/Capita Growth (%) 5.1 19.3 39.7 9.6 31.9 5.2

In % In 6.0 Government Revenue 34 42 48 41 50 Government Expenditure 32 37 48 42 54 4.0 Tax Revenue (% of GDP) NA NA NA NA NA 2.0 FDI Inflows NA NA NA NA NA 0.0 PPP (IRR/USD) 4,069 4,598 6,205 7,172 9,595 2010 2012 2014e

Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal terms; Source: IMF data and estimates government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr IRR/USD average exchange rate of 0.00004 from Bloomberg.

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2006 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The Iran Pro League (IPL), also known as the Iran Player DoB Club Caps Goals Persian Gulf League, is the highest professional league Goalkeepers for association football clubs in Iran. Sixteen teams contest in the championship. Foolad topped the league Rahman Ahmadi 30-Jul-80 Sepahan 10 0 table during the 2013–14 season. Daniel Davari 6-Jan-88 E. Braunschweig 3 0 • The country has reached the World Cup‘s group stage Alireza Haghighi 2-May-88 Sporting Covilha 4 0 thrice: 1978, 1998, and 2006. So far, Iran has not been Defenders able to progress beyond the group phase at the FIFA A. Alenemeh 20-Oct-82 Naft Tehran 7 1 World Cup. Iran‘s only victory in the World Cup came S. Beitashour 1-Feb-87 V. Whitecaps 4 0 in France in 1998, a 2-1 win against the USA. H. Beykzadeh 22-Jan-84 Esteghlal 16 1 • In the 2006 FIFA World Cup hosted by Germany, Iran Jalal Hosseini 3-Feb-82 Perspolis 82 6 was grouped with Portugal, Mexico, and Angola. The team‘s first match was against Mexico, which it lost 1– M.R. Khanzadeh 11-May-91 Zob Ahan Isfahan 5 0 3. Iran played against Portugal in the second game and Hossein Mahini 16-Sep-86 Perspolis 20 0 lost the match 0–2. Two losses meant that the team P. Montazeri 6-Sep-83 Umm Salal 19 1 was eliminated from the World Cup. Iran played its final Mehrdad Pouladi 26-Feb-87 Perspolis 18 0 game against Angola, which ended in a 1–1 draw. A. H. Sadeghi 6-Sep-81 Esteghlal 13 1 • Defenders Yahya Golmohammadi and Sohrab Midfielders Bakhtiarizadeh scored one goal each in the World Cup G. Hadadifar 12-Jul-83 Zob Ahan Isfahan 15 0 tournament of 2006. Reza Haghighi 1-Feb-89 Perspolis 6 0 • The Iranian football team is currently being coached by Carlos Queiroz who has previously served as the Ehsan Hajisafi 25-Feb-90 Sepahan 56 2 manager of Real Madrid and has also coached J. Nekounam (c) 7-Sep-80 Kuwait SC 136 37 Portugal‘s national team. He has worked as the B. Rahmani 23-Sep-91 Foolad 2 0 assistant manager to legendary Sir Alex Ferguson at A. Teymourian 6-Mar-83 Esteghlal 76 8 Manchester United. He has guided three national teams Forwards to qualify for the FIFA World Cup, including South Africa in 2002, Portugal in 2010, and Iran in 2014. Karim Ansarifard 3-Apr-90 Tractor Sazi 39 8 • Captain Javad Nekounam is one of the key players Khosro Heydari 14-Sep-83 Esteghlal Tehran 46 0 to watch out for in FIFA 2014. He was the team’s Ashkan Dejagah 5-Jul-86 Fulham 11 4 leading goal-scorer in the qualifying campaign. Ghoochannejhad 20-Sep-87 Charlton Athletic 11 9 Other important players include emerging star A. Jahanbakhsh 11-Aug-93 NEC Nijmegen 4 1 striker Reza Ghoochannejhad and midfielders Masoud Shojaei 9-Jun-84 UD Las Palmas 48 5 Ashkan Dejagah and Andranik Teymourian. Coach: Carlos Queiroz However, Iranian team faces a tough challenge as

it is grouped with Argentina, Bosnia and Nigeria. Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes • According to BSports’s StatsInsights, Iran’s team captain has a 24.7% likelihood of reaching the round of 16 and a 7.5% probability of reaching the quarter-finals. We expect elimination at the group stage.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2006 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 2 Goals Against: 6

Arena da Baixada, 16 June 16:00 Curitiba Nigeria

Estadio Mineirao, Belo 21 June 13:00 Won Horizonte Argentina Drawn Arena Fonte Nova, 25 June 13:00 Lost Salvador Bosnia 2

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 59 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Nigeria (NGA) Economy-USD286bn/ HDI-153/ FIFA-44

Africa’s Biggest Economy and African Football Champion

Economic Performance Country Details • Nigeria, Africa‘s largest oil exporter, surpassed South Africa to Region Western Africa become the continent‘s biggest economy in 2014. As per the Currency Naira National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country‘s economy Area Sq. Km. 923,768 expanded from NGN42 trillion to NGN80 trillion in 2013 when the Population Mn 169.3 government rebased its GDP after over two decades. Accordingly, Urban Population % 50.2 Nigeria became the world‘s 26th biggest economy. Moreover, based Urban Population Growth % 3.8 on re-benchmarked GDP (rebased to 2010), the country‘s Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban economy grew 12.7% y/y in 2013. population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively • Nigeria diversified its economy through strong growth in the non- oil sector. As per the rebased data, contribution of oil and gas sector to GDP declined to 14% in 2013 from 32% prior to rebasing Trade Balance 2013 and contribution from the services sector grew to 52% of GDP Import USD bn 77 (previously, 29%). Due to the ongoing privatization program, the Export USD bn 102 economy is dominated by the private sector. Moreover, foreign Balance USD bn 24 participation is on an upward trajectory. Separately, the debt-to- Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include GDP ratio was adjusted downward from 19% to 11%. merchandise and commercial services • Nigeria‘s inflation rate stood at 7.9% in April 2014, within Central Bank‘s target of 6–9%. However, pricing pressures could increase Economic Indicators if the government increases spending in the pre-election year. 2012 2013 2014e • The IMF expects a strong economic growth, led by agriculture, GDP (USD bn) 264 286 316 services, and trade. Moreover, Moody‘s estimates Nigeria to rank GDP/capita (USD) 1,604 1,692 1,817 among top 15 economies by 2050 as GDP exceeds USD4.5 trillion Unemployment (%) NA NA NA in PPP terms. Furthermore, in April 2014, Fitch affirmed Nigeria‘s BB- rating with a stable outlook. CPI 135.5 147.0 157.6 Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is Political Structure prior to rebasing and in nominal terms • Nigeria is a federal republic where the President has executive power. Current President Goodluck Jonathan was appointed to office on May 06, 2010. Next national elections are due 2015. Economic Growth • Nigeria is a member of various organizations including the UN, 16.00 12.0 OPEC, Commonwealth, African Union, and WTO. Socio-economic Background 14.00 8.0 • Despite strong economic growth, poverty and income inequality In In %

remain high. According to NBS‘s most recent census, the NGN tn 12.00 4.0 population living in absolute poverty rose to 61% in 2010 from 54.7% in 2004. Moreover, Transparency International ranked Nigeria as the 144th most corrupt among the 177 countries on its 10.00 0.0 2010 2012 2014e Corruption Perception Index 2013. • Nigeria faces an uprising from Boko Haram, an extremist outfit Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS)

which seeks to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria. The group has been active in the country since 2009 and is responsible for Source: IMF data and estimates various bombings, assassinations and abductions including the Current Account Balance, % GDP most recent kidnappings of over 200 schoolgirls. 9.0 Economic Summary 7.7

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5.8 6.0 Population (mn) 151.9 156.1 160.3 164.8 169.3 4.7 4.9 Growth (%) 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 In In % 3.5 GDP/Capita Growth (%) (0.5) 33.2 6.9 5.8 5.4 3.0 Government Revenue 27 42 69 63 51 Government Expenditure 42 56 67 63 65 Tax Revenue (% of GDP) NA NA NA NA NA 0.0 FDI Inflows 9 6 9 7 6 2010 2012 2014e

PPP (NGN/USD) 73.29 91.80 92.14 92.41 92.79 Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates

Source: IMF data and estimates, UNCTAD; Note: GDP/capita growth is prior to rebasing and in nominal terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr NGN/USD average exchange rate of 0.01 from Oanda

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2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Nigeria Professional Football League is the highest Player DoB Club Caps Goals professional football league in Nigeria. Kano Pillars Goalkeepers topped the 2013 league season. Chigozie Agbim 28-Nov-84 Gombe United 14 0 • Nigeria, the reigning African Champion, has made only Hapoel Be'er Austine Ejide 08-Apr-84 30 0 four appearances (1994, 1998, 2002, and 2010) at the Sheva world cups. The team, popularly known as Super Vincent Enyeama 29-Aug-82 Lille 89 0 Eagles, failed to progress beyond the second stage Defenders each time, including the 2010 World Cup where it was Efe Ambrose 18-Oct-88 Celtic 34 1 eliminated at the group stage. Elderson 20-Jan-88 Monaco 39 2 • In 2010, Nigeria finished last among group B countries Azubuike Egwuekwe 16-Jul-89 Warri Wolves 30 1 scoring 1 point, behind Argentina (9), South Korea (4), Godfrey Oboabona 16-Sep-90 Çaykur Rizespor 33 1 and Greece (3). It lost two of the three matches played Kunle Odunlami 30-Apr-91 Sunshine Stars 9 0 during the tournament. The Super Eagles team was Kenneth Omeruo* 17-Oct-93 Middlesbrough 16 0 defeated 0-1 by group favorite Argentina in its first Juwon Oshaniwa 14-Sep-90 Ashdod 9 0 match, and lost the next match 1-2 to Greece. The Joseph Yobo* (c) 06-Sep-80 Norwich City 94 7 team‘s only point came from a 2-2 draw against South Midfielders Korea in its third match. Ramon Azeez 12-Dec-92 Almeria 1 0 • At South Africa 2010, Kalu Uche scored two goals, Ruben Gabriel 25-Sep-90 Beveren 9 0 followed by Yakubu Ayegbeni who scored one. Nigeria‘s John Obi Mikel 22-Apr-87 Chelsea 57 4 failure at the World Cup could be ascribed to its inability Michael Babatunde 24-Dec-92 FC Volyn Lutsk 2 0 to convert goal scoring opportunities. Ogenyi Onazi 25-Dec-92 Lazio 19 1 • In February 2010, Swedish manager Lars Edvin Forwards Lagerbäck was hired to guide the team during the 2010 Shola Ameobi 12-Oct-81 Newcastle United 5 2 World Cup. Stephen Keshi, who captained the team in Emmanuel Emenike 10-May-87 Fenerbahçe 21 9 its first ever World Cup in 1994, is the current national Victor Moses* 12-Dec-90 Liverpool 19 6 coach. Most recently, Keshi led Nigeria to win the 2013 Ahmed Musa 14-Oct-92 CSKA Moscow 36 5 Africa Cup of Nations. His preferred formation is 4-3-3. Uche Nwofor 17-Sep-91 Heerenveen 4 2 • John Obi Mikel, veteran Vincent Enyeama and Peter Odemwingie 15-Jul-81 Stoke City 58 10 forwards Victor Moses, Ahmed Musa, and Michael Uchebo 03-Feb-90 Cercle Brugge 1 0 Emmanuel Emenike would be key players at the Coach: Stephen Keshi Brazil 2014 tournament. Source: fifa.com, national-football-teams.com, bbc.com; Note: • According to BSports’s StatsInsights, Nigeria has Current squad consists of players included in the final 2014 World the third-highest chance (37.7%) of qualifying for Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes captain; *Omeruo and Moses, and Yobo the knockout stages, after Argentina and Bosnia are on loan from Chelsea and Fenerbahçe, respectively and Herzegovina. Chances of progress beyond the round of 16 are negligible.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 3 Goals Against: 5

Arena da Baixada, 16 June 16:00 Curitiba Iran

21 June 18:00 Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba Bosnia and 1 Won Herzegovina Drawn Estadio Beira-Rio, Porto 25 June 13:00 Lost Alegre Argentina 2

Source: fifa.com

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GROUP G Germany | Portugal | USA | Ghana

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 62 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Germany (GER) Economy-USD3,636bn/ HDI-5/ FIFA-2

A Solid Economy and a Strong FIFA Contender

Economic Performance Country Details • Germany is the fifth-largest economy in the world in terms of PPP Region Western Europe and the largest within the euro area. It has withstood the euro Currency Euro area crisis reasonably well and continues to be pivotal to the Area Sq. Km. 357,121 region‘s recovery. Germany led the Eurozone out of a double-dip Population Mn 80.8 recession in 2Q13 by expanding 0.7% q/q. Urban Population % 74.1 • Germany‘s labor market continues to remain robust. According to Urban Population Growth % 0.0 Eurostat, unemployment in Germany (5.1%) was the second- lowest among member states in February 2014. Employment Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 growth is expected to continue on account of increasing industrial and 2010–15, respectively production and improving economic situation. • Germany‘s inflation rate, which has been slowing down in the Trade Balance 2013 recent past, was 1.04% in March 2014 (the lowest since August Import USD bn 1,502 2010). However, the finance ministry expects inflation to remain Export USD bn 1,740 moderate and dispelled any risk of deflation. Consumer prices are Balance USD bn 238 likely to increase 1.4 % and 1.9% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include • Germany‘s public debt stood at EUR2.044 trillion, 78.4% of GDP, merchandise and commercial services in December 2013. The Federal Ministry of Finance expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to fall below the Maastricht reference value of Economic Indicators 60% in 2017. 2012 2013 2014e • Germany‘s economic outlook for 2014 is positive. The German GDP (USD bn) 3,428 3,636 3,876 Council of Economic Experts (GCEE) expects GDP to grow 1.9%, GDP/capita (USD) 42,569 44,999 47,893 led by domestic demand. Moody‘s upgraded Germany‘s Aaa credit- rating outlook to stable from negative due to a lower risk of the Unemployment (%) 5.5 5.3 5.2 country‘s balance sheet being affected by the need for CPI 113.5 115.3 116.9 contributions to provide further collective support to other Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in countries in the Eurozone, particularly Italy and Spain. nominal terms Political Structure Economic Growth

• Germany is a federal parliamentary republic, where the President 2.60 4.0 is the head of state and Chancellor (presently, Angela Merkel) is the head of government. 2.50 3.0 • Germany is a member of various organizations including the EU, UN, NATO, G-7 OECD, WTO, and the Council of Europe. 2.40 2.0 In In % EUR tn Socio-economic Background 2.30 1.0 • Germany is facing a demographic crisis with one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe. Furthermore, population is expected to fall 2.20 0.0 19% to 66 million by 2060, according to the most recent census 2010 2012 2014e

report by the Federal Statistical Office. Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS)

Source: IMF data and estimates Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary 8.0 USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 7.5 7.4 7.3 Population (mn) 81.8 81.8 80.3 80.5 80.8 Growth (%) (0.2) (0.1) (1.7) 0.2 0.3 7.0 6.8 GDP/Capita Growth (%) (3.8) 5.2 6.5 1.9 2.3 6.4 Government Revenue 1,473 1,494 1,587 1,641 1,681 In % Government Expenditure 1,573 1,637 1,614 1,638 1,681 6.0 Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 37.3 36.1 37.1 NA NA FDI Inflows 22 57 49 7 NA 5.0 PPP (EUR/USD) 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.85 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA 9.0 NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr EUR/USD average exchange rate of 1.37 from Oanda

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2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The Fußball-Bundesliga is the highest professional Player DoB Club Caps Goals football association in Germany and currently ranks Goalkeepers third in Europe, according to UEFA. Bayern München topped the 18-club league in the 2013–14 season. Manuel Neuer 27-Mar-86 Bayern München 45 0 R. Weidenfeller 06-Aug-80 Borussia Dortmund 1 0 • Germany, a three-time FIFA World Cup champion, Ron-Robert Zieler 12-Feb-89 Hannover 96 3 0 secured third position in 1934, 1970, 2006 and 2010 Defenders World Cups, scoring the highest number of goals (16) Jérôme Boateng 03-Sep-88 Bayern München 37 0 in the 2010 tournament. During the championship, it Per Mertesacker 29-Sep-84 Arsenal 96 4 scored few massive wins against Australia (4-0), Philipp Lahm (c) 11-Nov-83 Bayern München 105 5 England (4-1), and Argentina (4-0). Erik Durm 12-May-92 Borussia Dortmund 0 0 • Germany started strong, gaining a 4-0 victory over Kevin Großkreutz 19-Jul-88 Borussia Dortmund 4 0 Australia in their first group stage match. However, it B. Höwedes 29-Feb-88 Schalke 04 19 1 lost its second match to Serbia (0-1). It qualified for Mats Hummels 16-Dec-88 Borussia Dortmund 28 2 the round of 16 after defeating Ghana by 1-0. Germany Midfielders scored two successive wins by defeating England and Mario Götze 03-Jun-92 Bayern München 27 7 Argentina in the round of 16 and quarter-finals, Matthias Ginter 19-Jan-94 Freiburg 2 0 respectively. However, it lost 0-1 to Spain in the semi- B. Schweinsteiger 01-Aug-84 Bayern München 101 23 final and battled Uruguay for the third place. Mesut Özil 15-Oct-88 Arsenal 53 17 • Thomas Müller won the Adidas Golden Boot with the Toni Kroos 04-Jan-90 Bayern München 42 5 highest goals and assists in the tournament. He also Julian Draxler 20-Sep-93 Schalke 04 11 1 received the Best Young Player Award. In terms of the André Schürrle 06-Nov-90 Chelsea 31 11 number of goals, Müller led the team with five goals, Sami Khedira 04-Apr-87 Real Madrid 44 4 followed by Miroslav Klose with four. Borussia Christoph Kramer 19-Feb-91 1 0 • The German team was coached by Joachim Löw in Mönchengladbach 2010. He continues as the national coach after the Marco Reus 31-May-89 Borussia Dortmund 19 7 German Football Association (DFB) extended his Forwards contract till 2016. He strongly favors the 4-2-3-1 Miroslav Klose 09-Jun-78 Lazio 131 68 formation, which is based around two defensive central Lukas Podolski 04-Jun-85 Arsenal 112 46 midfielders who provide support for defense. The team Thomas Müller 13-Sep-89 Bayern München 47 16 is known for playing beautiful and attacking football. Coach: Joachim Löw Defense on the other hand remains a concern, although Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of the team boasts of world class defenders such as Lahm, players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes Mertesacker, Hummels and Boateng. captain • Germany has a very strong team, with the team’s number one keeper Manuel Neuer known for his good reflexes and captain Philipp Lahm acknowledged as one of the best full-backs in the world. Other key players include Bastian Schweinsteiger, Mesut Özil, and Thomas Müller, as well as the younger players André Schürrle, Toni Kroos, Mario Götze and Sami Khedira. • Germany has played the highest number of matches (99) and scored the maximum goals (222) in the FIFA World Cup championships. The team is in the proverbial Group of Death. According to BSports’s StatInsights, it stands the second-highest chance of winning the 2014 World Cup. We expect Germany to reach the final.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 7 Goals For: 16 Goals Against: 5

Arena Fonte Nova, 16 June 13:00 Salvador Portugal

Estadio Castelao, 2 21 June 16:00 Won Fortaleza Ghana Drawn Arena Pernambuco, 26 June 13:00 USA Lost Recife 5

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 64 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Portugal (POR) Economy-USD220bn/ HDI-43/ FIFA-3

Standing on its Own Feet

Economic Performance Country Details • Portugal was adversely affected by the 2008 fiscal crisis. However, Region Southern Europe the country emerged out of recession in 2Q13 as its economy Currency Euro expanded 1.1% q/q after 10 quarters of negative GDP growth. On Area Sq. Km. 92,212 an annual basis, the economy contracted only 1.4% as against a Population Mn 10.6 3.2% decline in 2012 on improvement in domestic demand, Urban Population % 61.6 private-sector consumption, and investments during 2013. Urban Population Growth % 1.0 • In May 2014, Portugal announced its exit from the three-year EU- Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban IMF bailout program that ends on May 17 - the country had sought population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively a EUR78 million bailout in 2011. Due to the bailout, Portugal‘s

debt-to-GDP rose from 94% in 2010 to 129% in 2013. The Trade Balance 2013 government continues to undertake several fiscal consolidation measures as well as structural reforms to control debt levels. Import USD bn 89 Export USD bn 90 • After almost two decades, Portugal posted its first annual current Balance USD bn 1 account surplus in 2013. According to the Bank of Portugal, the surplus amounted to EUR881 million against a deficit of EUR3.3 Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services billion in 2012. Moreover, unemployment rate declined to 15.3% in

4Q13 from 16.9% in 4Q12. Although still high, unemployment is Economic Indicators expected to fall to 14.8% in 2015. • The IMF estimates Portugal‘s economy to grow 1.2% in 2014, led 2012 2013 2014e by increases in exports, private investment, and consumption. In GDP (USD bn) 212 220 231 April 2014, Fitch raised Portugal‘s outlook to positive from negative GDP/capita (USD) 20,020 20,728 21,766 citing the country‘s efforts to reduce budget deficit, ability to Unemployment (%) 15.7 16.3 15.7 regain access to debt markets, and improved growth outlook. The CPI 115.9 116.4 117.1 country is rated BB+, one notch below the investment grade. Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in nominal terms Political Structure

• Portugal is a semi-presidential constitutional republic, where the Economic Growth president is the head of state and prime minister is the head of government. Pedro Passos Coelho took the prime minister‘s office 0.17 3.5 in June 2011. • Portugal is a member of various organizations, including the EU, 0.16 1.0 NATO, OECD, UN, and WTO. In In % Socio-economic Background EUR tn 0.15 (1.5) • Portugal had the third highest level of income inequality in the European Union, after Latvia and Spain, in 2012. According to 0.14 (4.0) Eurostat, the Gini index for the country stood at 34.5 compared 2010 2012 2014e with the European average of 30.6. Moreover, the at-risk-of- Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) poverty rate, which was stable around 42% since 2003, increased to 45.4% in 2011 and 46.9% in 2012. However, after considering social transfers, the rate fell to 18.7% in 2012, with pensions being Source: IMF data and estimates the key anti-poverty device. Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary 5.0 USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.9 0.8 Population (mn) 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 0.0 Growth (%) 0.1 0.0 0.1 (0.5) 0.1 GDP/Capita Growth (%) (2.1) 2.5 (1.1) (3.1) 0.2

In % (5.0) (3.3) Government Revenue 92 99 106 93 99 (7.0) Government Expenditure 115 122 116 108 110 (10.0) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 30.7 31.3 33.0 32.5 NA (10.6) FDI Inflows 3 3 11 9 NA (15.0) PPP (EUR/USD) 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.68 2010 2012 2014e

Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA 3.5 NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr EUR/USD average exchange rate of 1.37 from Oanda

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2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Primeira Liga, also known as Liga ZON Sagres, is the Player DoB Club Caps Goals highest professional football division of the Portuguese Goalkeepers football league system. It currently ranks fifth, Beto 01-May-82 Sevilla 6 0 according to the UEFA‘s league coefficient ranking. Eduardo 19-Sep-82 Braga 32 0 Sixteen clubs contested in the league‘s 2013–14 Rui Patrício 15-Feb-88 Sporting 29 0 season, with Benfica leading the league table, followed by Sporting CP and FC Porto. Defenders Fábio Coentrão 11-Mar-88 Real Madrid 43 3 • Despite producing some of the world‘s best footballers, Luís Neto 26-May-88 Zenit 6 0 Portugal has not won a single World Cup. In England João Pereira 25-Feb-84 Valencia 34 0 1966, they secured third place, the closest they have André Almeida 10-Sep-90 Benfica 2 0 ever been to lifting the trophy. They were eliminated in Bruno Alves 27-Nov-81 Fenerbahçe 70 9 the round of 16 in South Africa 2010, which was Pepe 26-Feb-83 Real Madrid 57 3 Portugal‘s fifth World Cup. Ricardo Costa 16-May-81 Valencia 17 1 • In 2010, Portugal won only one of the four matches it Midfielders played. The team ended its first match against Côte William Carvalho 07-Apr-92 Sporting 2 0 d‘Ivoire in a goalless draw, but scored a 7-0 victory João Moutinho 08-Sep-86 Monaco 66 2 over North Korea in the next match. Portugal entered Raul Meireles 17-Mar-83 Fenerbahçe 73 10 the round of 16 after its third group stage match Miguel Veloso 11-May-86 Dynamo Kyiv 46 2 against Brazil ended in a goalless draw. However, the Rafa Silva 17-May-93 Braga 1 0 team lost 0-1 to the eventual Cup winner Spain. Rúben Amorim 27-Jan-85 Benfica 10 0 • In the game against North Korea, Portugal scored Forwards seven goals. Tiago was the team‘s top scorer with two Cristiano Ronaldo (c) 05-Feb-85 Real Madrid 110 49 goals, while Liedson, Raul Meireles, Cristiano Ronaldo, Silvestre Varela 02-Feb-85 Porto 21 4 Hugo Almeida, and Simao scored a goal each. Éder 22-Dec-87 Braga 6 0 • Coach Carlos Manuel Brito Leal Queiroz, the current Hélder Postiga 02-Aug-82 Lazio 66 27 manager of Iran‘s national team, guided the Portuguese Hugo Almeida 23-May-84 Beşiktaş 53 17 team during South Africa 2010. The team‘s current Nani 17-Nov-86 Man. United 72 14 manager Paulo Bento succeeded Queiroz in September Vieirinha 24-Jan-86 Wolfsburg 6 0 2010. He favors the 4-3-3 formation, and manages to Coach: Paulo Bento get the best out of Ronaldo. Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of • Portugal has a strong team boasting the reigning FIFA players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes captain Ballon d'Or winner Cristiano Ronaldo, who won the award for the second time. He is likely to be supported by defensive-pair Pepe and Bruno Alves as well as Hélder Postiga and Fábio Coentrão. Other important players include Nani and youngster William Carvalho. • According to BSports‘s StatInsights, Portugal is likely to make it to the second round from the Group of Death. However, it has only a 4% chance of winning the championship. We expect elimination at the hands of Belgium in the round-of-16.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 4 Goals For: 7 Goals Against: 1

Arena Fonte Nova, 16 June 13:00 Salvador Germany

1 1 Arena Amazonia, 22 June 18:00 Won Manaus USA Drawn Estadio Nacional, 26 June 13:00 Lost Brasilia Ghana 2 Source: fifa.com

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 66 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW United States (USA) Economy-USD16,800bn/ HDI-3/ FIFA-14

Slow & Steady Economic Recovery – An Ever Improving Football Team

Economic Performance Country Details • The US is the world‘s largest economy. It ranks among the top 10 Region Northern America countries with regards to per capita GDP. The economy Currency US Dollar deteriorated over 2008–11, as it was the epicenter of the 2008 Area Sq. Km. 9,629,091 financial crisis. However, since 2012, the US has been showing Population Mn 313.1 signs of recovery, supported by improving domestic consumption Urban Population % 82.6 and consumer confidence, and decreasing unemployment levels (6.3% as of April 2014). During the first quarter of 2014, the Urban Population Growth % 1.1 economy contracted by1% due to a frigid winter. Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and • The US is the largest global investor (investments worth USD368 2010-15, respectively billion in 2013). FDI in the US totaled USD166 billion in 2013. • The US fiscal deficit expanded to a record USD1.4 trillion in 2009 Trade* Price asBalance of Feb 04, 2013 2013 due to the crisis. It has improved and contracted to USD680 billion Import USD bn 2,759 in 2013, below the USD1 trillion mark for the first time since 2008, Export USD bn 2,241 as the economy picked up and tax receipts grew. Moreover, the * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 Balance USD bn (518) economy has been running a current account deficit since 1982.

Currently, the US has the largest current account deficit of Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services USD379.3 billion. • In 2009, the economy recorded deflation (-0.324%) for the first Economic Indicators time since World War II, due to the 2008 financial crisis. The 2012 2013 2014e inflation rate hovered around 2% on an average over 2010–13. GDP (USD bn) 16,245 16,800 17,528 • As per the IMF, the US economy is expected to grow 2.8%, in GDP/capita (USD) 51,709 53,101 54,980 2014, supported by steady private consumption and lower Unemployment (%) 8.1 7.4 6.4 unemployment levels. The US Fed‘s bond-buying program, started in 2008 to revive the economy, is being wound up this year CPI 229.6 233.0 236.2 (reduced to USD45 billion in May 2014). If the economy and labor Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in market continue to recover, we could see interest rates hikes in H1 nominal terms

2015. Economic Growth Political Structure • The US is the world‘s second-largest representative democracy. 17.00 3.0 The president is head of state and government. Barack Obama, the current president, was re-elected in 2012 and his term ends in 16.00 2.5 January 2017. In % In

• The US is a member of the organizations including the UN, OECD, USDtn 15.00 2.0 IMF, G-24, G-20, and WTO. Socio-economic Background 14.00 1.5 • The nation has been witnessing ageing baby boomers and fewer 2010 2012 2014e immigrants. The population grew 0.7% in 2013. The aged Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) population is expected to double to 83.7 million in 2050.

Source: IMF data and estimates

Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 307.4 309.7 311.9 314.2 316.4 Growth (%) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 (1.0) GDP/Capita Growth (%) (2.9) 3.0 3.1 3.8 2.7 Government Revenue 4,095 4,304 4,512 4,718 5,159

In % In (2.0) Government Expenditure 6,217 6,180 6,226 6,290 6,392 (2.3) (2.2) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 23.3 23.8 24.0 24.3 NA (3.0) (2.7) FDI Inflows 150.4 205.9 230.2 166.4 NA (3.0) (2.9)

PPP (USD/USD) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 (4.0) Foreign Population ( % of Total) 7.1 7.1 7.1 NA NA 2010 2012 2014e

Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD, United States Census Bureau; Note: Source: IMF data and estimates GDP/capita is in nominal term

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2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Major League Soccer (MLS) is the top professional Player DoB Club Caps Goals association league in the US and Canada. As of May Goalkeepers 2014, the US ranked first among the CONCACAF countries. Nineteen teams, including three from Brad Guzan 9-Sep-84 Aston Villa 24 0 Canada, contested in the 2013 MLS season. New York Tim Howard 6-Mar-79 Everton 96 0 Red Bulls topped the season. Nick Rimando 17-Jun-79 Real Salt Lake 14 0 • The United States men's national soccer team (USMNT) Defenders has made the second-largest participation (nine D. Beasley 24-May-82 Puebla 114 17 appearances and seven qualifications thus far) in the Matt Besler 11-Feb-87 Sp. Kansas City 14 0 FIFA World Cup among teams of the Confederation of John Brooks 28-Jan-93 Hertha 3 0 North, Central American, and Caribbean Association Geoff Cameron 11-Jul-85 Stoke City 24 1 Football (CONCACAF). In 2010, the US made it to the round of 16, but was eliminated by Ghana. Timmy Chandler 29-Mar-90 1. FC Nuernberg 10 0 • The US began World Cup 2010 with a 1-1 draw against Omar Gonzalez 11-Oct-88 Los Angeles Galaxy 18 0 England. This was followed by a 2-2 draw with Fabian Johnson 11-Dec-87 Hoffenheim 19 0 Slovenia, before a Landon Donovan stoppage time goal Deandre Yedlin 9-Jul-93 Seattle Sounders 2 0 secured a 1-0 win against Algeria. This was the first Midfielders time since 1930 that the US had won in its group. Kyle Beckerman 23-Apr-82 Real Salt Lake 35 1 However, the team lost to Ghana 1-2 in the round of Aleja Bedoya 29-Apr-87 FC Nantes 25 1 16. The match was viewed by 19 million Americans, the most watched association match in American television Michael Bradley 31-Jul-87 Toronto 82 12 history. Brad Davis 8-Nov-81 Houston Dynamo 14 0 • Landon Donovan, the face of the US national team, Mix Diskerud 2-Oct-90 Rosenborg 17 2 scored two of the five goals by the US at FIFA 2010. Julian Green 6-Jun-95 FC Bayern Muenchen 1 0 Michael Bradley and Clint Dempsey (one each) offered Jermaine Jones 3-Nov-81 Besiktas 41 2 him notable support. Jozy Altidore, Tim Howard, and Graham Zusi 18-Aug-86 Sporting Kansas City 20 3 Oguchi Onyewu are some of the other key players. Forwards • USMNT was coached by Bob Bradley during World Cup 2010. In July 2011, Jürgen Klinsmann of Germany was Jozy Altidor 6-Nov-89 Sunderland 66 20 named the team's 35th coach. The team is ranked 14th Clint Dempsey (c) 9-Mar-83 Seattle Sounders 102 36 globally, ahead of France and Netherlands. Aron Johannsson 10-Nov-90 AZ A lkmaar 7 1 • For 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil, the US would C. Wondolowski 28-Jan-83 SJ Earthquakes 18 9 rely on veteran goalkeeper Tim Howard, strong Coach: Jürgen Klinsmann midfielder Michael Bradley, Captain Clint Dempsey Source: fifa.com, uefa.com, national-football-teams.com; Note: who would be the main striker. The core of the Current squad consists of players included in the final 2014 World team will be assisted by Jozy Altidore, John Cup squad; Matches played and goals scored represent total of all Brooks, Geoff Cameron and Julian Green. FIFA seasons; ‗c‘ denotes captain • According to BSports’s StatInsights, the team has the second-lowest chance to qualify for the round of 16 among group G countries.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 4 Goals For: 5 Goals Against: 5

16 June 19:00 Estadio das Dunas, Natal Ghana

1 1 22 June 18:00 Arena Amazonia, Manaus Portugal Won

Drawn

26 June 13:00 Arena Pernambuco, Recife Germany Lost

Source: fifa.com 2

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 68 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Ghana (GHA) Economy-USD44bn/ HDI-135/ FIFA-38

Both Economy and Football On the Back Foot

Economic Performance Country Details • Ghana was one of the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Region Western Africa Africa, with average GDP growth of 8% over 2008–12. However, Currency New Cedi the growth is gradually softening. According to the IMF, the Area Sq. Km. 238,533 economy grew 5.5% in 2013, less than the government‘s estimate Population Mn 25.6 of 7.1%. Growth remains constrained by several macro factors, Urban Population % 52.5 including large budget deficit, weakening currency, and inflation. Urban Population Growth % 3.5 • Ghana‘s fiscal deficit widened to 10.8% in 2013, exceeding the Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban government‘s target of 9% for the second consecutive year, due to population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively lower tax revenues, high public sector wage bill, and rising interest costs. According to the Ministry of Finance, public debt increased to 49.4% of GDP (or USD22.7 billion) as of August 2013 from 36.9% Trade Balance 2013 in 2009. To stabilize the economy, the government seeks to Import USD bn 22 achieve 8.0% growth and limit budget deficit to 8.5% in 2014. Export USD bn 16 • The central bank expects headline inflation to remain above the Balance USD bn (6) target of 9.5% (+/-2%) in 2014 due to currency depreciation, slow Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include fiscal consolidation, and utility and fuel price adjustments. Inflation merchandise and commercial services rose to 14.5% in March 2014 from 13.5% in December 2013. Furthermore, Cedi depreciated 14.6% against the USD in 2013. Economic Indicators Fitch projects Ghana‘s inflation rate to be around 15% in 2014. 2012 2013 2014e • The IMF expects the GDP to grow 4.5% in 2014 vis-à-vis the GDP (USD bn) 40 44 39 government‘s estimate of 8%. In March 2014, Fitch revised GDP/capita (USD) 1,622 1,730 1,486 Ghana‘s rating outlook to negative from stable on widening fiscal Unemployment (%) NA NA NA deficit. The rating was downgraded to B from B+ in October 2013. CPI 569.2 635.6 718.3 Political Structure Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in nominal terms • Ghana has evolved into a mature and peaceful democracy. The President is the head of state and government. Vice President John Mahama ascended to President following the death of Atta Mills. Economic Growth His term expires in January 2017. 0.04 20.0 • Transparency International‘s 2013 Corruption Index ranked Ghana rd 63 of 177 countries, indicating better performance than other 0.03 15.0 African nations, including South Africa. • Ghana is a member of the UN, G-24, and WTO, among others. 0.02 10.0 In In % Socio-economic Background GHStn 0.01 5.0 • The World Bank classifies Ghana in the lower middle-income bracket. The country ranked 135th on the Human Development 0.00 0.0 Index (HDI). HDI of 0.558 places the country in the medium 2010 2012 2014e human development category (group average: 0.64). Ghana ranks Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) above average in the sub-Saharan region.

Source: IMF data and estimates

Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Population (mn) 23.1 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.6 Growth (%) 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 (4.0) GDP/Capita Growth (%) 18.2 22.7 26.7 19.2 15.5 Government Revenue 2 3 4 5 6

In % (8.0) Government Expenditure 3 5 6 9 10 (8.6) (9.1) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 21.5 14.2 17.4 17.2 16.4 (12.0) (10.6) FDI Inflows 1 1 7 5 4 (12.2) (13.2) PPP (GHS/USD) 0.62 0.72 0.80 0.89 0.98 (16.0) 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA

Source: IMF data and estimates, Ghana Investment Promotion Centre, Ministry Source: IMF data and estimates of Finance; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal terms; government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr GHS/USD average exchange rate of 0.39 from Oanda

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2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Ghana Premier League, officially known as the First Player DoB Club Caps Goals Capital Plus Bank Premier League, is the top Goalkeepers professional football division in Ghana‘s football league Adam Kwarasey 12-Dec-87 Strømsgodset 20 0 system. Sixteen teams contest in the championship. Stephen Adams 28-Sep-89 Aduana Stars 6 0 Asante Kotoko won the league title during the 2013–14 Fatau Dauda 06-Apr-85 Orlando Pirates 17 0 season. Defenders • Ghana‘s football team, Black Stars, has made two Daniel Opare 18-Oct-90 Standard Liège 16 0 World Cup appearances in 2006 and 2010. In 2010, John Boye 23-Apr-87 Rennes 29 3 Ghana was the only African nation to progress to the J. Mensah 13-Jul-90 Évian 24 1 knockout rounds. However, the team was eliminated by Samuel Inkoom 01-Jun-89 Platanias 45 1 Uruguay in the quarter-finals. Affulinho 24-Jul-86 Espérance 39 0 • Ghana began the World Cup 2010 campaign in South Rashid Sumaila 18-Dec-92 Mamelodi Sundowns 7 0 Africa with a 1-0 victory over Serbia. After a 1-1 draw Midfielders with Australia, Black Stars finished among the top two Michael Essien 03-Dec-82 Milan 56 9 at the group stage. However, the team ceded the top Emmanuel Badu 02-Dec-90 Udinese 47 7 spot to Germany 0-1. The team advanced to the quarter-finals after defeating the US 2-1 in the round of Wakaso Mubarak 02-Jul-90 Rubin Kazan 16 7 16, with the winning goal by striker Asamoah Gyan. In Albert Adomah 13-Dec-87 Middlesbrough 13 1 the quarter-finals, Ghana faced Uruguay and both Sulley Muntari 27-Aug-84 Milan 80 21 teams were level at 1-1 at the end of 90 minutes, but Kwadwo Asamoah 09-Dec-88 Juventus 60 4 Gyan missed a last-minute penalty in extra time, Christian Atsu 10-Jan-92 Vitesse 21 4 resulting in elimination from FIFA World Cup 2010. André Ayew 17-Dec-89 Marseille 46 4 • Ghana was the best team from the host continent. Afriyie Acquah 01-May-92 Parma 3 1 Asamoah Gyan was the team‘s highest scorer, with Mohammed Rabiu 31-Dec-89 Kuban Krasnodar 15 0 three goals, followed by Sulley Muntari and Kevin- Forwards Prince Boateng (one each). K. Boateng 06-Mar-87 Schalke 04 11 2 • The team was coached by Milovan Rajevac for the Majeed Waris 19-Sep-91 Valenciennes 11 3 World Cup. Current coach James Kwesi Appiah, Jordan Ayew 11-Sep-91 Sochaux 11 2 popularly known as Akwasi Appiah, was appointed the Asamoah Gyan (c) 22-Nov-85 Al-Ain 77 38 national coach in April 2012. Coach: James Kwesi Appiah • Black Stars comprises strong midfielders Michael Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of Essien and Muntari, while captain Gyan is an players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes captain outstanding attacker, currently playing for the club Al Ain in the UAE. Other players include André Ayew, Kwadwo Asamoah, and Kevin-Prince Boateng. • According to BSports’s StatInsights, Germany and Portugal are favorites among Group G countries and Ghana stands only 27% chance of progressing to the top 16. It will be difficult for the country to better its performance from the previous edition.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 5 Goals For: 5 Goals Against: 4

16 June 19:00 Estadio das Dunas, Natal USA

1 Estadio Castelao, 21 June 16:00 Won Fortaleza Germany 2 Drawn Estadio Nacional, 26 June 13:00 Lost Brasilia Portugal 2 Source: fifa.com

Source: fifa.com

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GROUP H Belgium | Russia | Algeria | South Korea

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 71 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Belgium (BEL) Economy-USD507bn/ HDI-17/ FIFA-12

United by Football

Economic Performance Country Details • Economic activity in Belgium picked up pace in 2Q13 after Region Western Europe undergoing a long period of stagnation since the economic crisis in Currency Euro 2009. GDP expanded 0.2% in 2013 after declining 0.1% in 2012. Area Sq. Km. 30,528 In 2013, activity was led by higher private consumption and Population Mn 10.8 exports, mainly due to a revival in other Eurozone economies. Urban Population % 97.5 Belgium‘s government expects economic performance to remain Urban Population Growth % 0.3 steady in 2014, supported by an anticipated rise in public spending Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population and steady growth in exports, led by recovery in the US economy. and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010-15, respectively • Belgium‘s government has avoided steep fiscal cuts to contain

deficit in recent years, resulting in a steadily growing debt burden * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 2013 since 2009, currently over 100% of GDP. The debt ratio is higher Trade Balance Import USD bn 546 than key Eurozone economies and exposes the country to various Export USD bn 570 risks, including a quicker-than-expected rise in interest rates. * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 • In 2013, the labor market weakened as unemployment rate Balance USD bn 24 increased to 8.4% from 7.7% in 2012 due to subdued economic Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services growth. However, Belgium‘s employment rate compares well with

the overall unemployment rate in the Eurozone, which stood at Economic Indicators 11.8% as of March 2014. • Inflation declined sharply from 1.8% in 2012 to 1.2% in 2013, 2012 2013 2014e GDP (USD bn) 483 507 535 mainly due to a fall in energy prices. This is much lower than ECB‘s GDP/capita (USD) 43,554 45,384 47,787 target inflation rate of less than, but close to, 2%. Unemployment (%) 7.7 8.4 9.1 • In March 2014, Moody's changed its outlook for Belgium's CPI 118.2 119.6 120.8 government from negative to stable, stating the country's banking Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in sector has stabilized and consequently, risks on the government's nominal terms balance sheet have reduced. The ratings agency expects Belgium‘s fiscal position to continue improving. Accordingly, Belgium's credit Economic Growth rating has been affirmed at Aa3/P-1. Political Structure 0.38 3.0 • Belgium is a constitutional monarchy, where the King is the head of 2.0 state and the Prime Minister is the head of government in a multi- 0.37

party system. 1.0 In % In

• It is a member of various organizations, including the G-10, UN, tn EUR 0.36 NATO, WTO, OECD, EU, and OSCE. 0.0 Socio-economic Background 0.35 (1.0) th • In 2012, Belgium ranked 17 out of 187 countries on the World 2010 2012 2014e Bank‘s Human Development Index (HDI). It features in the ―very Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) high human development‖ group. The country‘s HDI value has grown 17% between 1980 and 2012, an average annual increase of about 0.5%. Source: IMF data and estimates

Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary 3.0 USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.9 Population (mn) 10.8 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 Growth (%) 0.8 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.6 1.0 GDP/Capita Growth (%) (2.4) 3.6 2.3 0.9 0.9 In % In Government Revenue 225 238 252 263 270 Government Expenditure 252 257 271 284 285 (1.0) (1.1) Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 43.1 43.5 44.1 45.3 NA (1.3) (1.7) FDI Inflows 84 106 164 (50) NA (2.0) (3.0) PPP (EUR/USD) 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.90 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA 9.2 NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita growth is in nominal Source: IMF data and estimates terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr EUR/USD average exchange rate of 1.37 from Oanda

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2002 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• Officially known as Jupiler Pro League, the Belgian Pro Player DoB Club Caps Goals League is the top league competition for association Goalkeepers football clubs in Belgium. Contested by 16 clubs, Koen Casteels 25-Jun-92 T. Hoffenheim 0 0 Standard Liège finished at the top in 2013–14. Thibaut Courtois* 11-May-92 Atletico Madrid 15 0 • Belgium has participated in 11 World Cup tournaments Simon Mignolet 6-Mar-88 Liverpool FC 14 0 and qualified for six straight world cups from 1982 to Silvio Proto 23-May-83 RSC Anderlecht 13 0 2002. It reached the knockout phase five times and Defenders stood fourth in 1986. The team did not qualify for T. Alderweireld 2-Mar-89 Atletico Madrid 32 1 the 2006 and 2010 world cups. Laurent Ciman 5-Aug-85 Standard Liege 8 0 • In the 2002 World Cup, Belgium was grouped with V. Kompany (c) 10-Apr-86 Manchester City 57 4 Russia, Tunisia, and Japan, the co-host of the N. Lombaerts 20-Mar-85 Z.St. Petersburg 25 2 tournament. The team faced Japan in its first match, A. Vanden Borre 24-Oct-87 RSC Anderlecht 24 1 which ended in a 2–2 draw. This was followed by a T. Vermaelen 14-Nov-85 Arsenal 46 1 match with Tunisia, which ended in a 1–1 draw. The Jan Vertonghen 24-Apr-87 T. Hotspur 55 4 team qualified for the next round following a 3–2 victory over Russia. However, it lost the round-of-16 D. Van Buyten 7-Feb-78 B. Muenchen 77 10 match against Brazil with a score of 0–2. Midfielders Nacer Chadli 2-Sep-89 T. Hotspur 18 2 • Out of the six goals scored by Belgium in the Kevin De Bruyne 28-Jun-91 VfL Wolfsburg 20 4 tournament, former captain and current coach Marc Wilmots scored three. Johan Walem, Wesley Sonck, and Steven Defour 15-Apr-88 FC Porto 42 2 Peter Van Der Heyden scored one goal each. Wilmots, M. Dembele 16-Jul-87 T. Hotspur 55 5 an attacking midfielder, is Belgium‘s all-time top goal M. Fellaini 22-Nov-87 M. United 48 8 scorer until date. He retired from international football Eden Hazard 7-Jan-91 Chelsea 43 5 after the 2002 World Cup. Adnan Januzaj 5-Feb-95 M. United 0 0 • In 2002, the Belgian team was coached by Robert Kevin Mirallas 5-Oct-87 Everton 43 9 Waseige. He left the position after the 2002 World Cup. Divock Origi 18-Mar-95 Lille OSC 0 0 Current national coach Marc Wilmots served as the Axel Witsel 12-Jan-89 Z.St. Petersburg 46 5 Belgium national team‘s assistant manager from 2009 Forwards to 2012, first under Dick Advocaat and then under Dries Mertens 6-May-87 SSC Napoli 23 2 Georges Leekens. Wilmots assumed the role of a coach Romelu Lukaku* 13-May-93 Everton 27 5 after Leekens quit in May 2012. He has signed a Coach: Marc Wilmots contract to coach the team until June 2014. Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes • During the 2014 World Cup, key Belgian players captain; *Courtois and Lukaku are on loan from Chelsea would be Chelsea's Player of the Year Eden Hazard, Nacer Chadli, Romelu Lukaku, Kevin de Bruyne, Thibaut Courtois, and Toby Alderweireld. The team's senior players include Vincent Kompany, Thomas Vermaelen, Axel Witsel, Marouane Fellaini and Steven Defour. Manchester United star Adnan Januzaj has recently been included in the squad. • According to BSports’s StatsInsights, the Belgian team has a 45.6% probability of reaching the quarter-finals. However, Belgium potentially faces a tough opponent i.e. Portugal in the round of 16 and assuming the team crosses that hurdle, will potentially face Argentina in the quarter-final.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2002 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 4 Goals For: 6 Goals Against: 7

Estadio Mineirao, 17 June 13:00 Algeria Belo Horizonte

Estádio do Maracanã, 1 1 22 June 13:00 Won Rio De Janeiro Russia Drawn Arena de Sao Paulo, 26 June 17:00 Korea Sao Paulo Lost

Source: fifa.com 2

Source: fifa.com

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Russia (RUS) Economy-USD2,118bn/ HDI-55/ FIFA-18

Economy and Football team – Both Underperforming

Economic Performance Country Details • Russia‘s economy expanded at a robust pace of 7% annually Region Eastern Europe during 1998–08 due to rising oil and gas prices. However, the Currency Russian Ruble country‘s recovery from the recession of 2009 was not as Area Sq. Km. 17,098,24 remarkable. GDP growth averaged 4% during 2010–12, declining Population Mn 142.8 to 1.3% in 2013, as the lack of comprehensive structural reforms Urban Population % 74.0 weakened business and consumer confidence. The recent spat with Urban Population Growth % 2.1 Ukraine has caused the sentiment to deteriorate further. Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2014 growth and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010- 15, respectively forecast for Russia from 1.3% to 0.2%, warning that sanctions

related to Ukraine were compelling investors to leave the country *Trade Price asBalance of Feb 04, 2013 2013 and bringing the economy closer to recession. This is the IMF‘s Import USD bn 468 fourth consecutive downward revision of Russia‘s growth forecast Export USD bn 589 for 2014, with the institute stating downside risks are considerable. * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 Balance USD bn 121 • Although growth slowed in recent years, inflation remained high. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include CPI increased to 6.77% in 2013, exceeding the target range of 5– merchandise and commercial services 6%. Higher inflation is primarily due to the economy functioning at almost full capacity, with the unemployment rate at just 5.4%. A Economic Indicators steep decline in the ruble in 2014 has pushed inflation higher. 2012 2013 2014e Russia‘s central bank raised the key interest rate two percentage GDP (USD bn) 2,004 2,118 2,092 points to 7.5% (in March 2014) to support the depreciating GDP/capita (USD) 14,016 14,819 14,645 currency. However, the IMF forecasts inflation to exceed 6% for a Unemployment (%) 5.5 5.5 6.2 second time in 2014, as against the central bank‘s estimate of 5– CPI 1060.9 1132.7 1198.0 6%. Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in • Russia‘s federal budget is expected to post a surplus of 0.5% of nominal terms GDP in 2014 from previous estimates of a deficit of 1%. The weak ruble boosted budget revenues from oil & gas exports, which Economic Growth contribute about 50% to total budget revenues. 45.00 6.0 • In April 2014, S&P cut Russia‘s sovereign debt rating to BBB-, one level above ‗junk‘ status. The ratings agency stated further downgrades are possible if economic growth weakens and the 43.00 4.0 Ukraine conflict leads to wider sanctions. In % In Political Structure tnRUB 41.00 2.0 • Russia is a federal semi-presidential republic. The President is the head of state and a multi-party system, whereas executive powers 39.00 0.0 are exercised by the government headed by the Prime Minister. 2010 2012 2014e Socio-economic Background Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) • In 2012, Russia ranked 55th on the World Bank‘s Human Development Index (HDI). It is one of the countries in the ‗high Source: IMF data and estimates human development‘ category.

Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6.0 5.1 Population (mn) 142.7 142.9 142.9 143.0 142.9 4.4 Growth (%) (0.1) 0.1 0.0 0.1 (0.0) 4.0 3.6 GDP/Capita Growth (%) (5.9) 19.2 20.2 11.0 8.9

Government Revenue 382 450 586 659 677 % In 2.1 Government Expenditure 451 495 562 651 701 2.0 1.6 Tax Revenue (% of GDP) NA NA NA NA NA FDI Inflows 28 32 37 30 NA PPP (RUB/USD) 18.47 20.84 23.55 24.86 26.31 0.0 Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA 2010 2012 2014e

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2002 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The Russian Football Premier League, also known as Player DoB Club Caps Goals the SOGAZ Russian Football Championship, is the Goalkeepers highest professional football league in Russia. It ranked Igor Akinfeev 8-Apr-86 CSKA Moscow 66 0 7th according to the UEFA‘s league coefficients. Sixteen Yuri Lodygin 26-May-90 Zenit 1 0 teams compete in the championship. CSKA Moscow Sergey Ryzhikov 19-Sep-80 Rubin Kazan 1 0 (2013–14 season) is the current defending champion. Defenders • Russia was eliminated in the first round during its last S. Ignashevich 14-Jul-79 CSKA Moscow 94 5 two appearances at the World Cup, first one of which Vasili Berezutski 20-Jun-82 CSKA Moscow 75 3 was in the US in 1994 and then in Korea/Japan in 2002. D. Kombarov 22-Jan-87 Spartak Moscow 20 1 The team did not qualify for the 2006 World Cup in A. Yeshchenko 9-Feb-84 A. Makhachkala 9 0 Germany and the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. For the 2014 World Cup, Russia is placed in Group H with Aleksei Kozlov 16-Nov-86 Dynamo Moscow 8 0 Algeria, Belgium, and South Korea, and has an even Vladimir Granat 22-May-87 Dynamo Moscow 4 0 chance of qualifying for the next round. G. Schennikov 27-Apr-91 CSKA Moscow 3 0 A. Semyonov 24-Mar-89 Terek Grozny 0 0 • At the 2002 World Cup hosted by Korea and Japan, Midfielders Russia was drawn with Belgium, Tunisia, and Japan in Group H. The group was considered weak and Russia Igor Denisov 17-May-84 Dynamo Moscow 41 0 was expected to qualify for the round of 16. The team Alan Dzagoev 17-Jun-90 CSKA Moscow 30 8 won 2–0 against Tunisia in its first game. However, Victor Faizulin 22-Apr-86 Zenit 16 4 they lost the next match to Japan with a score of 0–1. Yury Zhirkov 20-Aug-83 Dynamo Moscow 60 0 Russia needed to win the last game against Belgium to Denis Glushakov 27-Jan-87 Spartak Moscow 25 3 reach the next stage but lost 2–3 and was eliminated. A. Samedov 19-Jul-84 Lokomotiv Moscow 14 3 • Forwards Dmitri Sychev and Vladimir Beschastnykh and Oleg Shatov 29-Jul-90 Zenit 4 1 midfielders Valeri Karpin and Egor Titov each scored Roman Shirokov 6-Jul-81 Kuban Krasnodar 41 12 one of Russia‘s four goals in the tournament. Alexey Ionov 18-Feb-89 Dynamo Moscow 3 0 • Russia‘s football team is currently being coached by Forwards Italy‘s Fabio Capello. Capello has previously coached AC M. Kanunnikov 14-Jul-91 Amkar Perm 0 0 Milan, Roma, Juventus, and Real Madrid during his A. Kerzhakov 27-Nov-82 Zenit 78 24 managerial career and helped them win domestic titles. A. Kokorin 19-Mar-91 Dynamo Moscow 19 5 He was appointed manager of the England‘s team in Coach: Fabio Capello December 2008 and guided them during the 2010 FIFA Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of World Cup, where the team was defeated in the second players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes round. Capello resigned as the England team‘s manager captain in February 2012 and was appointed the coach of the Russian national team in July 2012. • Fabio Capello has chosen all Russia based players in the team for this world cup. Key players to observe are goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev, central defender Sergey Ignashevich, midfielders Alan Dzagoev and Yury Zhirkov, and top scorer in the qualifying matches Alexander Kerzhakov. • According to BSports’s StatsInsights, the Russian team has a 54.8% probability of going in the round of 16 and a 23.6% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. Although a drak horse for us, we reckon Russia will get eliminated in the group stage.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2002 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 4 Goals Against: 4

17 June 18:00 Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba Korea

Estádio do Maracanã, 22 June 13:00 Belgium 1 Won Rio De Janeiro Drawn Arena da Baixada, 26 June 17:00 Algeria Lost Curitiba 2

Source: fifa.com

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Algeria (ALG) Economy-USD206bn/ HDI-93/ FIFA-25

Striving to do Better – Both on Economic and Soccer Fields

Economic Performance Country Details • Algeria has the third largest oil reserves in Africa, after Libya and Region North Africa Nigeria. Supported by political stability, the country‘s economy Currency Dinar expanded approximately 3% in 2013 (3.3% in 2012), driven by Area Sq. Km. 2,381,741 private demand and public sector investment. Population Mn 37.9 • The Algerian economy is largely supported by the oil and gas Urban Population % 73.7 sector, which contributes more than 30% to GDP and almost 96% Urban Population Growth % 2.5 to exports. Moreover, oil drives approximately 70% of government Source: IMF, UN data, CIA; Note: Urban revenues. However, oil production in Algeria has been declining population and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010–15, respectively steadily. The stock of reserves has stagnated close to the current

level (12.2 billion barrels as of January 2013) over the past few Trade Balance 2013 years, indicating the need for private investments. Exports of hydrocarbons decreased 10.3% in 2013, causing a decline in the Import USD bn 65 current account balance as imports continued to grow. The Export USD bn 70 economy is considerably vulnerable to fluctuations in this sector Balance USD bn 4 due to the lack of diversification. Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services • Inflation fell significantly from 8.9% in 2012 to 4% in 2013 due to

fiscal consolidation measures and an active monetary policy. Economic Indicators However, the unemployment level remained high (9.8% in 2013). 2012 2013 2014e • The IMF forecasts Algeria‘s economy to expand 4.3% in 2014. GDP (USD bn) 204 206 219 However, the fund acknowledges the need for structural reforms, GDP/capita (USD) 5,448 5,438 5,671 an improved business environment, relaxation of the FDI regime, Unemployment (%) 11.0 9.8 9.4 and trade facilitation to drive economic growth. The IMF also noted labor market reforms were required to ensure job creation. CPI 155.0 160.1 166.5 Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in Political Structure nominal terms • Algeria is a presidential republic, where the President is the head of state whereas the Prime Minister is the head of government. In Economic Growth April 2014, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the country‘s longest serving 7.00 5.0 president, was re-elected for the fourth consecutive term amid protests. • The country is a member of various organizations, including the 6.50 4.0 UN, OPEC, Arab League, and African Union. In In %

Socio-economic Background DZDtn 6.00 3.0 • Algeria has a difficult business environment. Consequently, it ranked second lowest among MENA countries in the 2014 Index of 5.50 2.0 Economic Freedom. 2010 2012 2014e • During 2010–12, protests broke out in Algeria due to persistently Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) high unemployment, the housing crisis, inflation, corruption, and poor living conditions. Source: IMF data and estimates

Economic Summary Current Account Balance, % GDP

USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12.0 Population (mn) 35.3 36.0 36.7 37.5 37.9 9.9 Growth (%) 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.1 7.5 GDP/Capita Growth (%) (11.5) 17.9 18.6 6.8 2.1 8.0 6.0 Government Revenue 47 56 74 82 78 In In % Government Expenditure 54 57 75 90 78 4.0 Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 34.9 34.2 39.4 NA NA 1.1 FDI Inflows 3 2 3 1 NA 0.5 0.0 PPP (DZD/USD) 42.06 48.25 55.72 57.85 57.29 2010 2012 2014e Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA NA NA NA NA

Source: IMF data and estimates, Indexmundi, UNCTAD; Note: GDP/capita Source: IMF data and estimates growth is in nominal terms; Government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr DZD/USD average exchange rate of 0.01 from Oanda

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F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• The Algerian Ligue Professionnelle 1, also known as Player DoB Club Caps Goals Championnat National de Première Division, is the top Goalkeepers football league division of the Algerian football league Raïs M'Bolhi 25-Apr-86 CSKA Sofia 27 0 system. Of the 16 participating teams, USM Alger Cédric Si Mohamed 09-Jan-85 Constantine 1 0 ranked the highest in the 2013–14 league table. M. Zemmamouche 19-Mar-85 USM Alger 6 0 • Algeria‘s participation in the 2010 World Cup in South Defenders Africa was its third appearance in the global event. The Essaïd Belkalem* 01-Jan-89 Watford 12 0 country previously participated in 1982 and 1986. However, Algeria‘s performance in the previous M. Bougherra (c) 07-Oct-82 Lekhwiya 61 4 tournaments was unsatisfactory as the team did not Liassine Cadamuro 05-Mar-88 Mallorca 6 0 progress beyond the group stage. In 2010, Algeria Faouzi Ghoulam 01-Feb-91 Napoli 5 0 placed at the bottom of group C, with just one point. Rafik Halliche 02-Sep-86 Académica 27 1 • The team, Les Fennecs (the ‗Desert Foxes‘), played Mehdi Mostefa 30-Aug-83 Ajaccio 22 0 three matches during the 2010 World Cup and failed to Aïssa Mandi 22-Oct-91 Reims 1 0 win any of these. Moreover, the team was eliminated Carl Medjani 15-May-85 Valenciennes 24 1 from the tournament without scoring a single goal. Djamel Mesbah 09-Oct-84 Livorno 25 0 Algeria and Honduras were the only teams to exit the Midfielders World Cup goalless. Nabil Bentaleb 24-Nov-94 Tottenham Hotspur 1 0 • Algeria was drawn in group C, along with the US, Yacine Brahimi 08-Feb-90 Granada 4 0 England, and Slovenia. Les Fennecs, lost its opening A. Djabou 31-Jan-87 Club Africain 6 1 match 0–1 to Slovenia. Although the team‘s next match Riyad Mahrez 21-Feb-91 Leicester City 0 0 ended in a goalless draw against England, Les Fennecs Medhi Lacen 15-Mar-84 Getafe 28 0 lost the final group game 0-1 to the US. Sofiane Feghouli 26-Dec-89 Valencia 17 5 • Rabah Saâdane, the Algerian coach, guided the Saphir Taïder 29-Feb-92 Internazionale 9 3 country‘s team during the 2010 World Cup. He was also Hassan Yebda 14-May-84 Udinese 24 2 the head coach during the 1986 World Cup. In July Forwards 2011, Vahid Halilhodžić became the national coach. Nabil Ghilas 20-Apr-90 Porto 4 1 Halilhodžić has served as the national coach for Côte Islam Slimani 18-Jun-88 Sporting Lisbon 18 9 d‘Ivoire as well. El Arbi Hillel Soudani 25-Nov-87 Dinamo Zagreb 20 10 • Madjid Bougherra, the team’s captain, Medhi Coach: Vahid Halilhodžić Lacen, Nabil Bentaleb and Islam Slimani are likely Source: fifa.com, bbc.com; Note: Current squad consists of to be the key players during the 2014 World Cup. players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes • Algeria is in a tough group with Belgium, Russia captain; *Belkalem is on loan from Granada and South Korea. There are slim chances for the team to progress from the group stage.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 3 Goals For: 0 Goals Against: 2

Estadio Mineirao, Belo 17 June 13:00 Horizonte Belgium

Estadio Beira-Rio, Porto 22 June 16:00 Korea 1 Won Alegre Republic Drawn Arena da Baixada, 26 June 17:00 Curitiba Russia 2 Lost

Source: fifa.com

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 77 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW Korea Republic (KOR) Economy-USD1,222bn/ HDI-12/ FIFA-55

An Asian Economic Superpower Gaining Global Recognition in Football

Economic Performance Country Details • Korean economy, the 15th largest in the world, has become stable Region Eastern Asia and prosperous over the years. GNI per capita rose to USD26,205 Currency South Korean Won in 2013 from a mere USD82 in 1961. The Korean economy is Area Sq. Km. 100,033 highly export-driven and industrialized. Economic growth averaged Population Mn 50.2 3.2% over 2008–12. The economy recovered modestly, growing at Urban Population % 83.5 3%in 2013 after slow growth of 2.3% in 2012. This was led by Urban Population Growth % 0.6 improved domestic demand and exports. The growth continued in Source: IMF, UN data; Note: Urban population 1Q14 (0.9% q/q). and growth thereof corresponds to 2012 and 2010- 15, respectively • In 2013, inflation eased significantly to 1.3% from 4% in 2011. On * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 a monthly basis, the inflation rate rose to 1.5% in April 2014 from Trade Balance 2013 1% in February 2014. The Bank of Korea (BOK) projects inflation Import USD bn 622 to be 2.1% in 2014, below its target range of 2.5–3.5%. * Price as of Feb 04, 2013 • The current account balance stood at a record high of USD79 in Export USD bn 671 2013, up 57% y/y. Exports rose 2.3% y/y, while imports fell 3.2% Balance USD bn 50 y/y, thus widening the surplus. Exports, which account for more Source: WTO; Note: Trade figures include merchandise and commercial services than half of Korea‘s GDP, are likely to continue the growth

momentum. This would be led by recovery in advanced economies, such as the US and Japan which are its main trading Economic Indicators partners, as well as rising world trade. BOK estimates a current 2012 2013 2014e account surplus of USD68 billion in 2014. GDP (USD bn) 1,130 1,222 1,308 • The government‘s estimate for 2014 economic growth is 4%, GDP/capita (USD) 22,590 24,329 25,931 slightly higher than the IMF‘s 3.7%. This is ascribed to sustained Unemployment (%) 3.2 3.1 3.1 recovery in domestic demand and higher export growth owing to CPI 106.3 107.7 109.6 global economic revival. Last November, Moody‘s affirmed Korea‘s Source: IMF data and estimates; Note: GDP is in Aa3 rating with a stable outlook on strong fiscal position, export nominal terms competitiveness, and easing geopolitical risks from North Korea. Economic Growth Political Structure 1,200.00 7.0 • Korea is a stable democratic republic, where the executive power

is largely concentrated with the President. Current President Park 1,150.00 Geun-hye is the country‘s first woman President. 5.0 • South Korea is a member of the UN, G-20, OECD and WTO, among 1,100.00 In % In

others. It maintains diplomatic relations with many countries. tn KRW 3.0 1,050.00 However, relations with its neighbor, North Korea, remain tense. Socio-economic Background 1,000.00 1.0 2010 2012 2014e • South Korea is a high-income, highly developed country with low Real GDP (LHS) % Change (RHS) unemployment levels (3.1% as of 2013). Moreover, its transformation from an aid recipient to a donor is remarkable. Source: IMF data and estimates • According to Bloomberg‘s 2014 rankings, Korea leads the world in

terms of innovation. Current Account Balance, % GDP Economic Summary 6.0 5.8 USD bn, unless specified 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Population (mn) 49.2 49.4 49.8 50.0 50.2 5.0 4.4 Growth (%) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 4.3 GDP/Capita Growth (%) 3.3 9.7 4.5 2.6 4.7

In % In 4.0 Government Revenue 221 239 259 277 285 2.9 Government Expenditure 221 222 238 256 273 3.0 2.3 Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 25.5 25.1 25.9 26.8 NA FDI Inflows 2 1 5 5 NA 2.0 2010 2012 2014e PPP (KRW/USD) 787.40 806.10 802.72 796.47 802.63 Foreign Population ( % of Total) NA 2.0 NA NA NA Source: IMF data and estimates Source: IMF data and estimates, OECD; Note: GDP/capita is in nominal terms; government revenue and expenditure are converted to USD using the Jan–Apr KWR/USD average exchange rate of 0.001 from Oanda

2014 FIFA World Cup Report | 78 It‘s Kick Off Time: Focus on Tactics, Not Statistics

F O R THE PRIVILEGED FEW

2010 World Cup Performance Round-up Current Squad

• K League Classic is the highest division of the South Player DoB Club Caps Goals Korean football league system. Twelve clubs participate Goalkeepers in the competition. FC Seoul finished at the top of the Sungryong Jung 4-Jan-85 Suwon Bluewings 59 0 league table during the 2013 season. Seunggyu Kim 30-Sep-90 Ulsan Hyundai 5 0 • Korea Republic has participated in seven World Cups, Bumyoung Lee 2-Apr-89 Busan Ipark 0 0 including South Africa 2010. The closest South Korea Defenders came to winning the World Cup was in 2002, when it Jeong Ho Hong 12-Aug-89 FC Augsburg 23 1 co-hosted the championship with Japan - the team Seokho Hwang 27-Jun-89 S. Hiroshima 3 0 secured the fourth place in the competition. In South Changsoo Kim 12-Sep-85 Kashiwa Reysol 8 0 Africa 2010, Korea made its first knockout stage Younggwo Kim 27-Feb-90 G. Evergrande 19 1 appearance on foreign soil. However, the team was eliminated by Uruguay in the round of 16. Taehwi Kwak 8-Jul-81 Al Hilal FC 33 5 Yong Lee 24-Dec-86 Ulsan Hyundai 10 0 • During World Cup, South Africa 2010, Korea Republic Joo Ho Park 16-Jan-87 FSV Mainz 05 13 0 was placed in Group B with group favorite Argentina, Sukyoung Yun 13-Feb-90 QPR 2 0 Nigeria and Greece. South Korea claimed the second place at the group stage owing to its opening victory Midfielders over Greece (2-0). In the successive matches, the team Daesung Ha 2-Mar-85 Beijing Guoan 12 0 lost 1-4 to Argentina and ended the group stage in a 2- Kookyoung Han 19-Apr-90 Kashiwa Reysol 8 0 2 draw against Nigeria. The team‘s World Cup Dongwon Ji 28-May-91 FC Augsburg 26 8 aspirations were ended by Uruguay in the round-of-16 Sungyueng Kl 24-Jan-89 Swansea 57 5 match (1-2). Bokyung Kim 6-Oct-89 Cardiff City 26 3 • Lee Chungyong and Lee Jungsoo were the team‘s C. Yong Lee (c) 2-Jul-88 Bolton Wanderers 53 6 highest scorers, scoring twice, while Park Chu-Young Jongwoo Park 10-Mar-89 Guangzhou R&F 10 0 and Park Ji-Sung scored a goal each. Park Chu-Young‘s Heung Min Son 8-Jul-92 B. 04 Leverkusen 23 6 scored an own goal as well in the team‘s massive 1-4 Forwards loss against Argentina. Shinwook Kim 14-Apr-88 Ulsan Hyundai 26 3 • Coach Huh Jung-Moo guided the team during the 2010 Jacheol Koo 27-Feb-89 FSV Mainz 05 35 12 World Cup. Currently, Hong Myungbo, one of the Keunho Lee 11-Apr-85 Sangju Sangmu 62 18 greatest footballers of the continent, is head coach of Chuyoung Park 10-Jul-85 Watford 62 24 the Korean national team. He played for the Korean Coach: Hong Myungbo national team for four consecutive World Cups (1990– Source: fifa.com, Korea Football Association; Note: Current 2002). He generally uses the 4-2-3-1 formation. squad consists of players included in the final 2014 World Cup squad; ‗c‘ denotes captain • South Korea is a relatively young team. Key

players are Ki Seung-yueng, Koo Jacheol, captain Lee Chungyong, and forwards Kim Shinwook and Park Chu Young. • We expect tough competition for the second place in the group as Belgium is likely to lead. According to BSports’s StatsInsights, Belgium and Russia are expected to claim the top spots, respectively, at the group stage. We believe otherwise and favor South Korea to qualify.

FIFA 2014: Group Stage Match Schedule 2010 FIFA World Cup Results Date Time Venue Against Matches Played: 4 Goals For: 6 Goals Against: 8

17 June 18:00 Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba Russia

Estadio Beira-Rio, Porto 22 June 16:00 Alegre Algeria

Arena de Sao Paulo, Sao 26 June 17:00 Paulo Belgium

Source: fifa.com