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Eliminating the Causes of War Cambridge, UK, August 2000 Pugwash OCCASIONAL PAPERS issued by the Council of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs Nobel Peace Prize 1995 Volume 2 Ⅲ Number 3 Ⅲ September 2001 50th PUGWASH CONFERENCE: Eliminating the Causes of War Cambridge, UK, August 2000 Essays by ROBERT HINDE & LEA PULKKINEN; HELEN WATSON & JACK BOAG; ALEXANDER NIKITIN; MORRIS MILLER; ANNE H. EHRLICH, PETER GLEICK & KEN CONCA; JOSEPH ROTBLAT, MATTHEW MESELSON, RALPH BENJAMIN, ANA MARÍA CETTO & MICHAEL ATIYAH Foreword by ROBERT HINDE & JOSEPH ROTBLAT Pugwash OCCASIONAL PAPERS Volume 2 I Number 3 September 2001 Editor: Jeffrey Boutwell Guest Editors: Robert Hinde and Joseph Rotblat Design and Layout: Anne Read TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction by ROBERT HINDE & JOSEPH ROTBLAT . 1 ROBERT HINDE & LEA PULKKINEN Human Aggressiveness And War. 5 HELEN WATSON & JACK BOAG Religion And Ethnicity As Causes Of Conflict . 38 ALEXANDER NIKITIN Political And Economic Causes Of War . 62 MORRIS MILLER Poverty As A Cause Of War? . 79 ANNE H. EHRLICH, PETER GLEICK, & KEN CONCA Resources And Environmental Degradation As Sources Of Conflict . 108 JOSEPH ROTBLAT, MATTHEW MESELSON, RALPH BENJAMIN, ANA MARÍA CETTO, & MICHAEL ATIYAH Misuse Of Science . 139 Participants – 50th Pugwash Conference, Cambridge, UK, August 2000 . 174 COVER ILLUSTRATION: Die Überlebenden (Survivors), By Käthe Kollwitz (1923) © 2001 Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York/VG Bild-Kunst Bonn. This Occasional Paper was made possible in part by a grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. 50th PUGWASH CONFERENCE: Eliminating the Causes of War Introduction Robert Hinde and Joseph Rotblat ars cause immense suffering. Everyone knows that, though perhaps not everyone recognizes the full extent of the consequences of war. WThe figures for those killed and wounded are dreadful enough, but one must also remember the horrors that confront many of those involved, the gut-crunching terror, the devastation of defeat. One must remember also that many of those wounded in body or in mind will continue to suffer for the rest of their lives, that the bereaved may never be the same again, that war leads to the homelessness of refugees and disruption of the lives of countless numbers of individuals who were not directly involved. Furthermore, our views on the dreadful consequences of war must change since the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki heralded the nuclear age and a radical change in the concept and scale of war. The hugely increased destructive power of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction brought a qualitative change in the potential nature of war. What previously required a massive operation with hundreds of bombers can now be accomplished with a single weapon. Massive destruction can be achieved with an ICBM or a bomb in a suitcase. It has become possible for even a small state, or an ethnic group within a state, or a group of terrorists, to wield a threat previously available only to a powerful state. The coincidental advent of nuclear weapons and the Cold War resulted in a ferocious arms race, with both superpowers accumu- lating obscenely huge arsenals which, if used in combat, could have had cata- clysmic consequences. For the first time in history the technical means to bring the human race to an end in a single act of war have become available. Although the danger has abated with the end of the Cold War, and despite the nearly uni- versal agreement on the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons, the nuclear weapon states still persist with policies based on nuclear deterrence; world security is precariously maintained by a balance of terror. Nearly every instance of war is both morally wrong and politically illegiti- mate. If we know, or at least dimly recognize, that war is horrific, then we must all be concerned with the elimination of war. This is not solely a matter for politi- cians, for wars cannot happen unless individuals are willing to go to war, or allow themselves to be coerced to do so. And it is not enough to wait until war has broken out and then try to ameliorate the situation. So long as the poten- tial for wars persists we must have means to resolve conflicts, but beyond that, to prevent war, we must be aware of the causes of war, and do our best to remove them. This collection is concerned with some of the principal factors believed to cause wars. It arose from papers given at the 50th Pugwash Conference held in Cambridge, England in 2000, and includes ideas and suggestions put forward before and during the Conference. The authors are indebted to the partici- pants in the Conference for their valuable contributions. The causes of wars present problems that have occupied the So long as the poten- minds of many people for a very long time. The events that led up to tial for wars persists particular wars have been examined with meticulous care. Correlates we must have means of international war in preceding decades or centuries have been to resolve conflicts, but beyond that, to examined in great detail. But two factors militate against the draw- prevent war, we must ing of firm conclusions from such enterprises. First, wars are diverse. be aware of the causes Indeed it is far from clear what should and what should not be of war, and do our best labeled as a ‘war’. For instance, should the grumbling border dispute to remove them. between India and Pakistan be called a war? Some authorities have taken the criterion of 1000 fatalities in a single year as a threshold after which a dispute is properly labeled as a war, but attempts to put precise limits on such a heterogeneous category are rarely worthwhile. It is bet- ter simply to recognize that wars are diverse, the differences lying along a num- ber of dimensions – inter-state or intra-state, whether democratic or totalitari- an states are involved, the number of participants, the magnitude of the conflict, the sorts of weapons involved, and so on. Two decades ago the urgent problems concerned the possibility of war between the major powers: now it is intra-state conflict that merits special attention. Thus, the principles discussed in this col- lection concern wars ranging from major worldwide conflicts on the scale of World War Two to border clashes, and both inter- and intra-state disputes. War is simply the use of violent means to achieve political ends on a scale greater than minor clashes between groups. From the start it is essential to recognize that wars are diverse and heterogeneous, and generalizations about their cau- sation are likely to be suspect. The second issue that confronts attempts to identify the causes of war is that every war has multiple causes. In studies of individual aggression it has been useful to distinguish three categories of causal factor: (i) Ontogenetic factors, 2 Pugwash Occasional Papers, September 2001 that is the circumstances of individual development that make them prone to display aggressive behaviour. The parallel in the case of war would be histori- cal factors that predisposed one group or nation to distrust, hate, or be jealous of, another. (ii) Predisposing factors, that is current circumstances that predis- pose to violence, such as the over-crowded living conditions and long hot sum- mers that have preceded violence in the USA. Parallels might be a growing short- age in one country of a resource available in another, or long-term rival religious beliefs. (iii) Eliciting factors. In the case of individual violence these might include a provocative act by the rival, or the availability of weapons, with obvious par- allels in the case of war. In a similar vein, Morris Miller refers to a dichotomy between proximate and ultimate factors. But it will be immediately obvious that, even in the case of individual violence, many factors would be difficult to place in one or other of these categories. The same is even more true of large-scale violent conflicts. Even attempts to distinguish necessary and sufficient from con- tributory causes of war are likely to be inadequate. Material resources perceived adequate to fight a war are clearly necessary but not sufficient, and the other causes discussed in these papers empower each other. Recognizing this imme- diately emphasizes that it would be mistaken to seek the cause of any war. Although useful insights have been obtained, both the diversity of wars and the multi-determined nature of every particular war hamper attempts to identify the causes of wars by the use of correlational approaches. As every stu- dent knows, correlation does not necessarily imply causation, and sophisticat- ed analysis is necessary to tease apart interacting causes and correlates. Relat- ed to that, negative results are especially suspect, because the null hypothesis cannot be proven and because factors critical for one outbreak may be irrele- vant for another. And in addition, the quality and nature of the data often make quantitative approaches suspect. For instance, generalizations made about small- scale wars based on the Human Areas Resource Files will certainly differ from those relevant to inter-state wars. This collection, therefore, adopts a different route. Each paper takes a fac- tor believed to have contributed to the incidence of wars and inquires into the evidence supporting that belief and the nature, if any, of the contribution. The factors considered are human aggressiveness, ethnicity and religion, political and economic issues, poverty, resource shortages and environmental degrada- tion, and the misuse of science. Two of the contributions use quantitative and modeling approaches along the way, but more to investigate the role of particular factors than to identify a cause (Miller, Anne Ehrlich et al.). In every case the interdigitation of causal fac- Pugwash Occasional Papers, September 2001 3 tors becomes immediately apparent.
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