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IJISET - International Journal of Innovative Science, Engineering & Technology, Vol. 8 Issue 2, February 2021 ISSN (Online) 2348 – 7968 | Impact Factor (2020) – 6.72 www.ijiset.com Analysis Of Indonesia Tourism Trends In The New Normal 2020-2024

Tesa Amalia1, I Komang Gde Bendesa2 1 Department of Economics, , , , Indonesia

2 Department of Economics, Udayana University, Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia

tourism can create many job opportunities [2]. The arrival Abstract of these foreign tourists can contribute to GDP and will The purpose of this study is to analyze trends in Indonesian provide even greater income to that declare tourism in 2020-2024 and to analyze the influence of tourism on tourist visiting countries. Indonesia's economic growth in 2000-2019. This study uses The tourism sector is the fastest growing sector in the secondary data obtained from the Indonesian National Statistics and has an important role in the economy and Agency (BPS). The data analysis technique used in this research regional income. The tourism sector is one of the sectors is trend analysis technique and multiple linear regression analysis technique. The results of this study indicate that the that has the potential to be developed as a source of tourism trend in Indonesia is experiencing an increasing trend in income for a , it is hoped that this tourism 2020-2024 and there is a positive and significant influence potential development program can contribute to the simultaneously and partially between the foreign exchange of country's economic development. Many programs have the tourism sector and investment on Indonesia's economic been created to develop tourism resources and potential growth in 2000-2019. The implication of this research is that the which in turn are expected to increase a country's income Indonesian government can make strategic plans for Indonesian [3]. Indonesia's tourism growth, which is considered fast, tourism, especially in the new normal era.. has attracted many investors to invest in a number of Keywords: Tourism, Tourism Foreign Exchange, Investment. tourism projects. Investment in the tourism sector can improve facilities and infrastructure in a number of 1. Introduction Indonesian tourism objects.

Indonesia's GDP growth rate continues to increase every year. The highest increase occurred in 2018, namely 2. Literature Review 5.17%. This increase in income is certainly supported by Adhitya, Bayu, and Morina, [4] various sectors. The agricultural, industrial and Shows the Indicators of international tourism acceptance sectors are still the three main sectors supporting and tourism capital investment have a significant and Indonesia's economic growth [1]. According to BPS data unidirectional influence on economic growth.. (2020), the GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2020 against the second quarter of 2019 experienced a Rukini, Arini, and Esthitasari [5] growth contraction of 5.32 percent (y-on-y). Then in the Which states that in the context of restoring the tourism third quarter of 2020, Indonesia's GDP growth rate sector, it is necessary to have innovation in the field of showed a significant improvement, namely growing by - tourism promotion both in terms of promotional methods 3.49 percent (y-on-y). The government must be able to and development of tourism products in order to increase increase state revenue, one of which is by increasing the the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia. number of tourist visits, the average amount of foreign tourist expenditure, and the high amount of investment. Afdi Nazir [6] Stated that the growth of tourism foreign exchange The tourism sector can directly contribute to foreign reserves will boost Indonesia's economic growth in the exchange with the number of foreign tourists who come. coming year. The growth in foreign exchange reserves will make the development process more smoothly. Indirectly,

404 IJISET - International Journal of Innovative Science, Engineering & Technology, Vol. 8 Issue 2, February 2021 ISSN (Online) 2348 – 7968 | Impact Factor (2020) – 6.72 www.ijiset.com 3. Problem Formulation 16,329,536 people. This means that foreign tourist visits to Indonesia have an increasing trend value in 2020-2024. The hypothesis of this project is: The coefficient of trend analysis for the average i. Visits of foreign tourists, the average expenditure expenditure of foreign tourists is US $ 9.400 and is of foreign tourists, the foreign exchange of positive, which indicates that the average increase in tourism, investment, and Indonesia's GDP have spending by foreign tourists is US $ 9.400 per year. Based an increasing trend value in 2020-2024. on these calculations it can be predicted that in 2020 the ii. Tourism sector foreign exchange and investment average foreign tourist expenditure will reach US $ 1,287, simultaneously had a positive and significant then in 2021 it will increase to US $ 1,305.8, in 2022 it effect on Indonesia's economic growth in 2000- will reach US $ 1,324.6, in 2023 it will be US $ 1,343.4, 2019. and In 2024 it is estimated that the average foreign tourist iii. Tourism sector foreign exchange and investment expenditure will reach US $ 1,362. This means that the partially have a positive and significant effect on average expenditure of foreign tourists has an increasing Indonesia's economic growth in 2000-2019. trend value in 2020-2024. The coefficient of analysis of the foreign exchange trend of the Indonesian tourism sector is US $ 404.90 and 4. Research Methodology has a positive value which indicates that the average increase in foreign exchange of the Indonesian tourism  This research is used to analyze the influence of sector is US $ 404.90 per year. Based on these foreign exchange in the tourism and investment calculations, it can be predicted that in 2020 the average sector on Indonesia's economic growth in 2000- foreign exchange of the tourism sector will reach US $ 2019 and to see the trend of foreign tourist visits, 404.90. Based on these calculations it can be predicted the average expenditure of foreign tourists, that in 2020 the foreign exchange of the Indonesian tourism sector foreign exchange, investment and tourism sector will reach US $ 17,722.25, then in 2021 it Indonesia's GDP in 2020-2024. will increase by US $ 18,532.26, in 2022 to US $  The objects in this study are the amount of 19,342.07, in 2023 it will reach US $ 20,151.89, and in foreign exchange in the tourism sector, 2024 it is estimated that the amount of foreign exchange investment, and Indonesia's economic growth in in the Indonesian tourism sector will reach US $ 2000-2019 and the growth trend of foreign 20,961.71. This means that the foreign exchange of the tourist visits, average foreign tourist spending, Indonesian tourism sector has an increasing trend in tourism sector foreign exchange, investment, and 2020-2024. Indonesia's GDP in 2020-2024. The coefficient analysis of Indonesia's investment  The data analysis technique used is trend trend is IDR 137,249.74 billion and has a positive value analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. which indicates that the average increase in Indonesian Trend analysis is used to analyze trends in investment is 137,249.74 billion rupiah per year. Based foreign tourist arrivals, the average expenditure on these calculations, it can be predicted that in 2020 the of foreign tourists, tourism sector foreign average investment in Indonesia will reach 5,052,898.67 exchange, and investment in 2020-2024. While billion rupiah, then in 2021 it will increase to multiple linear regression analysis is used to 5,327,398.35 billion rupiah, in 2022 it will reach analyze the influence of foreign exchange 5,601,897.85 billion rupiah, in 2023 it will be tourism and investment on Indonesia's economic 5,876,397.34 billion rupiah, and in 2024 it is estimated growth in 2000-2019. that Indonesia's investment will reach 6,150,896.84 billion rupiah. This means that Indonesian investment has an increasing trend value in 2020-2024. 5. Analysis Result The coefficient of trend analysis for Indonesia's (GDP) is IDR 299,936.07 billion and is Based on the calculation of trend analysis it can be positive, which indicates that the average increase in predicted that in 2020 the number of foreign tourist visits Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 299,936.07 billion to Indonesia will reach 14,053,935 people, then in 2021 it rupiah per year. Based on these calculations it can be will increase to 14,622,835 people, in 2022 it will reach predicted that in 2020 the average value of Indonesia's 15,191,736 people, in 2023 it will reach 15,760,636 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will reach 11,583,535.29 people, and in 2022 In 2024 it is estimated that the billion rupiah, then in 2021 it will increase to number of foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia will reach

405 IJISET - International Journal of Innovative Science, Engineering & Technology, Vol. 8 Issue 2, February 2021 ISSN (Online) 2348 – 7968 | Impact Factor (2020) – 6.72 www.ijiset.com 12,183,407.44 billion rupiah, in 2022 it will reach the tourism sector contributes 66.1 percent to Indonesia's 12,783,279.58 billion rupiah, in 2023 amounting to economic growth. This means that the investment 13,383,151.72 billion rupiah, and in 2024 it is estimated variable has a greater influence and contribution to that the value of Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product Indonesia's economic growth than the tourism sector (GDP) will reach 13,983,023.86 billion rupiah. This foreign exchange variable. means that Indonesia's GDP has an increasing trend value in 2020-2024. Based on the results of data analysis, it can be seen 6. Conclusion that foreign tourist visits, the average expenditure of foreign tourists, the foreign exchange of tourism, Visits by foreign tourists, the average expenditure of investment, and Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product foreign tourists, the foreign exchange of tourism, (GDP) will experience an increasing trend in 2020-2024. investment, and Indonesia's GDP will experience an Based on the results of testing the classical increasing trend in 2020-2024. There is a positive and assumptions, it can be concluded that the residual value in significant influence simultaneously between the foreign the regression model tested is normally distributed, there exchange of the tourism sector and investment on is no autocorrelation between residual values, there is no Indonesia's economic growth in 2000-2019. There is a multicollinearity in the test, and there are no symptoms of partially positive and significant influence between the heterosexuality in the regression model used in the study. foreign exchange of the tourism sector and investment on With an R-Square (R²) of 0.913 or 91.3 percent, which Indonesia's economic growth in 2000-2019. This result is means that 91.3 percent of Indonesia's economic growth in accordance with the theory which states that the value in 2000-2019 was influenced by foreign exchange from of foreign exchange and investment has an influence on the tourism and investment sector, while 8.7 percent was the income of a country which affects the rate of economic influenced by other variables not included in this research growth of the country itself. In addition, the investment model. Based on the results of foreign exchange tourism’s variable is the variable that has the greatest influence on t test, its found that the value of α = 0.05, t table = 1.739 the dependent variable, namely economic growth. This is and t_count = 2.038. in accordance with the theory which states that Based on the results of the calculation, it can be investment in various economic sectors will increase the concluded that tcount (2.038) > t table (1.739) then H₀ is rate of economic growth of a country. rejected or H₁ is accepted. This means that the tourism sector foreign exchange has a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's economic growth in 2000-2019. The value of unstandardized cofficients of tourism sector foreign exchange earnings (b₁) of 0.510 means that if there is an increase in foreign exchange in the tourism sector by one percent, Indonesia's economic growth will increase by 0.510 percent. The value of standardized coefficients for the foreign exchange beta of the tourism sector is 0.319, which means that the foreign exchange of the tourism sector contributes 31.9 percent to Indonesia's economic growth. Then, based on the results of foreign investment sector’s t test, its found that the value of α = 0.05, t table = 1.739 and t_count = 4.222. Based on the results of these calculations it can be concluded that the value of t count (4.222) > t table (1.739) then H₀ is rejected or H₂ is accepted. This means that investment has a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's economic growth in 2000-2019. The value of unstandardized cofficients for investment beta (b₂) of 0.556 means that if there is an increase in investment of one percent, Indonesia's economic growth will increase by 0.556 percent. The value of standardized coefficients beta for investment is 0.661 which means that foreign exchange in

406 IJISET - International Journal of Innovative Science, Engineering & Technology, Vol. 8 Issue 2, February 2021 ISSN (Online) 2348 – 7968 | Impact Factor (2020) – 6.72 www.ijiset.com 7. References

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