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Xerox University Microfilms 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 76-18,058 WESBR00IC, Stephen Dahl, 1948- INTERNATIONAL POWER DISTRIBUTION AND WAR: THE EFFECTS OF CONCENTRATION AND DISPERSION OF POWER ON INTERSTATE WAR. The Ohio State University, Ph.D., 1976 Political Science, international law and relations Xerox University Microfilmsi Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 © 1976 STEPHEN DAHL WESBROOK ALL RIGHTS RESERVED INTERNATIONAL POWER DISTRIBUTION AND WAR* THE EFFECTS OF CONCENTRATION AND DISPERSION OF POWER ON INTERSTATE WAR DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School oi The Ohio State University By Stephen D. Wesbrook, B.S., M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 1976 Reading Committee* Dr. Charles F. Hermann Dr. Chadwick F. Alger Dr. James E. Harf Adviser Department of Political Science ACKNOWLEDGMENTS For their guidance and direction throughout my graduate study, including the preparation of this dissertation, I am indebted to Professor Chadwick F. Alger, Professor James E, Harf, Professor Charles F. Hermann, and Professor Allan R. Millett. While I was studying at the Columbus campus of The Ohio State University (September, 19?2 through August, 197*01 they provided me with a personalised program in the area of national security affairs. After I left the campus, they adjusted departmental procedures and their own schedules to allow me to prepare this work and still meet the very considerable demands placed on an active duty officer in the Armed Forces. The vast majority of this work was written while I was attending the Infantry Officers Advanced Course at Fort Benning, Georgia, in the year following my departure from the Columbus campus. Because I was no longer on a university campus with ready access to libraries, computers, and advice, it would have been impossible to complete this research in the time that it was completed without the help of a friend and classmate at Ohio State— -Lavoy Ledford, III. He provided liaison between myself, my research committee, and the graduate school. Also, he ran the Pearson correlation and GINI index computational programs for me on the com­ puters available at Ohio State. I am also indebted to Dr, Wayne H. Ferris, Richard Katon Associates, Rockville, Maryland, for supplying me with certain pieces of unpublished data which were crucial to this study. This saved months of research and computation. ii The final preparation of the manuscript was aided by the efforts of William J. Gregor and my father, both of whom helped edit the final draft, and by Mrs, Sarabeth Rathbun, who typed the manuscript. Although this work was not financially supported by or in any way connected with the Department of the Army, this research would not have been possible without its farsighted policy of allowing a few officers the opportunity to begin their graduate education very early in their careers. Finally, this study would have been impossible without the understanding of my wife Sharon, who gave up a great deal to see it completed. iii VITA March 2, 19*f6.... Born—-Naha, Okinawa 1970........... B.S., United States Military Academy, West Point, New York 1971-1972....... Infantry Platoon Leader, 101st Airborne Division, Republic of Vietnam 197^. ....... M.A., The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 1975* ........ Infantry Officers Advanced Course, Fort Benning, Georgia FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: International Relations. Professor Charles F. Hermann Minor Field: American Military History. Professor Allan R. Millett TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS......................................... ii VITA................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES.......................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES......................................... vii Chapter I. INTRODUCTION................................... 1 II. THEORIES AND PROPOSITIONS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS................................ 7 International Systems Theory.............. 11 Historical Interpretation......... 27 Policy Prescription and Formulation........ 35 III. STRATEGY AND CONCEPTS.......................... 44 Strategy of Inquiry....................... 44 Concepts and Operationalization ...... 52 IV. THEORETICAL ANALYSIS........................... 87 The Structural Inducement of Aggression 88 The Structural Modification of Aggression... 94 Conclusions and Hypotheses................. 120 V. QUANTITATIVE DESCRIPTION AND ORIGINAL EVIDENCE, 1862-1964................................ 126 International Power Distribution, 1862-1964........................... 126 Interstate War Data -...»............ 149 Analysis and Evidence ...... 157 VI. CONCLUSION........... 171 BIBLIOGRAPHY............................................ 176 v LIST 01'' TABLES 5-1. Power Structure of the Total System, 1864 through I960, in Terms of Concentration-Dispersion Indices.. 130 5-2. Pearson Correlation of Concentration-Dispersion Indices within the Total System..................... 131 5-3 . Power Structure of the Elite System, 1864 through i9 6 0, in Terms of Concentration-Dispersion Indices....... l^K) 5-4. Pearson Correlation of Concentration-Dispersion Indices within the Elite System................ l4l 5-5. Pearson Correlation of Concentration-Dispersion Indices between the Elite and the Total Systems........ l4l 5-6. Power of the Top Five States as a Proportion of Total System Power......... 144 5-7. Rank-Order List of States Comprising an Elite System of Five States...................................... 147 5-8. Growth of the Total System in Terms of System Membership, System Power, and System Population...... 152 5-9* Interstate War Data, 1862-1909.................. ...... 155 5-10. Interstate War Data, 1910-1964.................... .. 156 5-11. Pearson Correlation of Concentration and the Amount of Vlar in the System, Midpoint Technique.......... l6l 5-12. Pearson Correlation of Concentration and the Frequency of War in the System, Midpoint Technique.......... 161 5-13. Pearson Correlation of Concentration and the Amount of War in the System, Initial Point Technique........ 3.62 5-l4. Pearson Correlation of Concentration and the Frequency of War in the System, Initial Point Technique..... 162 5-15. Comparison of Concentration and Dispersion in the Amount of War with Concentration and Dispersion in Power Distribution ............................... 168 vi LIST OF FIGURES 2-1. International Systems Classified by Power Structure.... 12 3-1. Concepts of Magnitude, Amount, and Frequency of War Graphically Displayed............................ 80 5-1. Total System Stratification--The Power Pyramid, 1864... 134 5-2. Total System Stratification Based on the Most Powerful State, 1864..................................... 134 5-3* Total System Stratification~The Power Pyramid, 1884... 135 5-4. Total System Stratification Based on the Most Powerful State, 1884..................................... 135 5-5. Total System Stratification— The Power Pyramid, 1909... 136 5-6. Total System Stratification Based on the Most Powerful State, 1909..................................... 136 5-7. Total System Stratification— The Power Pyramid, 193^*•* 137 5-8. Total System Stratification Based on the Most Powerful State, 193^..................................... 137 5-9. Total System Stratification— The Power Pyramid, i9 6 0... 138 5-10. Total System Stratification Based on the Most Powerful State, i9 6 0..................................... 138 5-11. Lorenze Curve Depicting the Power Distribution of the Elite System for 1899 and 1946............ 143 vii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The central