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Trajectories

Fall 2010 Newsletter of the ASA Comparative and Historical Section Volume 22, No. 1 ______

CONTENTS SECTION OFFICERS From the Chair…………………………………..1 2010- 2011 Symposium: Methodological Pluralism in Compar- ative-Historical Research Katherine Stoval on Sequences……………5 Chair Paul McLean on Networks………………...10 James Mahoney Scott Boorman on Mathematical Models…14 Northwestern University Dissertation Award Winner……21 Section Award Winners………………………....22 Chair- Elect Call for Submissions, Section Awards 2011……23 Neil Fligstein Call for Submissions, Section Sessions 2011…..25 University of California -Berkeley Letter to CHS about ASA 2012 (E.O. Wright)…26 Member Publications…………………………....30 Past Chair Call for Member Information……………………33

Elisabeth Clemens University of Chicago From the Chair

Secretary-Treasurer Victoria Johnson On the Virtues of Analyzing the University of Michigan Particular

Council Members Greta Krippner, U Michigan (2013) James Mahoney Nina Bandelj, UC Irvine (2013) Northwestern University Isaac Martin, UC San Diego (2012) Ivan Ermakoff, U Wisconsin (2012) Question: What do nearly all of the best Ming-Cheng Lo, UC Davis (2011) works in the field of comparative and historical Jeff Haydu, UC San Diego (2011) sociology have in common (other than their high Elizabeth Onasch (Student, 2011) quality)? Answer: the analysis of particular times and places. If one goes down the list of Newsletter Editors prize-winning articles and books in the section, Emily Erikson, Yale University one finds again and again works that seek to un- Isaac Reed, University of Colorado derstand, interpret, and explain specific cases. To take just three recent and quite different exam- Webmaster ples: In her remarkable work Economists and CONTENTSRobert Jansen, University of Michigan (2009), Marion Fourcade explores the CONTENTS reasons why the profession of turned out so differently in the United States, Britain, Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 and France. Karen Barkey‘s stunning book Em- cifically the Ottoman managed to persist pire of Difference (2008) analyzes center- so long (and why it evolved in the ways that it periphery dynamics to explain the evolution and did). The book succeeds in part because of what longevity of the Ottoman Empire. And Michael it teaches us about a historically particular case. Mann‘s disturbingly illuminating study The Dark Virtue #2: The analysis of particulars gene- Side of Democracy (2005) looks at ethnic clean- rates new theory. The close engagement with sing on a case-by-case basis around the world. case material that characterizes comparative and The concern with understanding specific historical research is invaluable for concept for- places and times makes the field of comparative mation and generating new theory. While me- and a ―case-oriented‖ enter- thods can structure an analysis, they cannot pro- prise (Ragin 1987). Unfortunately, one conse- vide concepts, orienting ideas, and hypotheses. quence of this case-oriented approach is that work These must come in part from the scholarly im- in this field is subject to the charge of generating agination, which in turn is stimulated by specific ―merely historical‖ contributions. Over the years, case knowledge and the effort to make sense of there have been many times when I have found particulars. For example, while Fourcade‘s work myself having to explain the value of research is focused on the of the economics profes- aimed at analyzing ―particulars‖ (i.e., specific sion, it tells us something quite important about times and places). In this short essay, I summar- how American, French, and British and ize five different responses concerning the value culture work in general. Likewise, while focused of interpreting and ex- on the Ottoman case, Barkey‘s plaining specific histori- work ends up providing a kind cal cases (the list is hard- Just as detectives and ju- of general recipe for starting ly exhaustive). These an empire and sustaining it.* answers call attention to ries can arrive at reliable It is important, also, to be the virtues of analyzing clear about the value of theory the particular—virtues inferences about particu- generation—which is some- that may not characterize lar events, so too can times assigned a secondary research that seeks to status next to theory testing. generalize broadly about comparative and histori- From the standpoint of com- trends for large popula- parative and historical re- tions of cases. cal researchers. search, the ―problem‖ of anal- Virtue #1: Know- ysis is often precisely one of ledge about particulars is valuable for its own theory generation. That is, at the onset, we lack sake. Here it is important to recognize a basic fully adequate concepts and hypotheses for inter- difference between work that grows out of the preting and explaining our cases. We therefore experimental template (including most large-N cannot work under the illusion that good theories statistical research) versus much comparative and already exist and can be mechanically applied or historical sociology. Under the experimental tested. We must, instead, reformulate existing template, the goal of the analysis is to estimate theories and create new concepts in order to make the average effect of a given treatment or variable sense of the cases under study. across a large of cases. One attempts Virtue #3: The study of particulars in the to say something about causal effects within a past provides important lessons for the present population, not within specific cases. By con- and future. Real-life concerns and choices often trast, with comparative and historical research, the goal of the analysis is often precisely to ex- * How to start and sustain an empire: (1) begin at the plain the occurrence of specific outcomes in par- boundary of multiple subsystems, (2) use your network po- sition to establish new cultural forms at this center position, ticular cases (or to interpret the meanings of spe- (3) redistribute resources in exchange for allegiance, (4) cific events and processes in particular cases). create that allow adaptability, (5) permit mul- The findings thereby generated are intrinsically tiple cultures and kinds of rule in periphery zones, (6) elim- valuable. For example, we read Barkey‘s book in inate peripheral elites that resist change and slowly incorpo- part because we want to know why and how spe- rate sympathetic elites into the center, and (7) don‘t allow periphery elites to work together. 2 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 involve assessments about processes whose out- Virtue #5: We may be able to do a better job comes are driven by the complex intersection of of explaining outcomes in particular cases than multiple events and actors. Empirical studies that generalizing about average causal effects for focus on the net effects of single variables may large of cases. Although well- not be useful for choosing wisely when con- designed experiments can do an excellent job of fronted with such processes. Comparative and estimating the average effect of a treatment with- historical studies that examine past trajectories in a large population of cases, studies that must involving this complex intermeshing of separately rely on observational data are fraught with prob- determined processes may provide more insight. lems related to correctly specifying the causal For example, although Mann‘s book is focused model. Comparative and historical studies avoid on explaining specific cases, he provides much certain obstacles by focusing the research goal on useful advice for thinking about how past explaining or interpreting particular cases (rather processes of genocide will (and will not) continue than generalizing about average causal effects). into the future. He ends up concluding that near- Just as detectives and juries can arrive at reliable ly all future genocides will occur in the Global inferences about particular events, so too can South. Consequently, policy needs to be directed comparative and historical researchers. In fact, at poorer parts of the world, not at the societies in many of the methods used by comparative and the Global North that have historically been the historical researchers have more in common with location of genocides. Mann‘s account also gene- detective work than laboratory experiments. Here rates some specific policy recommendations to is not the place to spell out these methods. But avoid the murderous history of the North. At the the point remains that inferences about patterns in top of his list is the creation of a World Criminal particulars are often more reliable than inferences Court with full U.S. backing, which, while per- about average effects in populations using obser- haps unlikely, would go along way toward pre- vation data. venting the most atrocious violence. *********** Virtue #4: The study of particulars in the Finally, a few notes about the section: Our past provides normative lessons for the present. financial status is quite good, due to the excellent As legal scholars are well aware, general norma- of our secretary-treasurer, Victoria tive principles about what is right and wrong are Johnson, and to the judicious use of funds by our often derived from the analysis of specific in- past-chair, Elisabeth Clemens. We hope to use stances—i.e., new cases generate new principles. some of the existing money for a special recep- Comparative and historical researchers routinely tion at ASA 2011 in Chicago. Our section mem- develop arguments from past cases that are rele- bership is slightly down (668 members by last vant to political and normative evaluation in the count), but so is membership for nearly all sec- present. For example, Fourcade‘s analysis of tions. Nina Bandelj and Isaac Martin are heading economists leads to a more profound normative up a committee to boost our numbers (my thanks conclusion than the familiar critique that econom- to both of them). Please help out by signing up ic models do not fit reality very well. Her work your students for section membership! suggests that universal economic models are ac- Please also nominate outstanding comparative tually constructed in quite different ways, de- and historical work for section prizes (see in this pending on national context. In turn, these differ- issue for further details). I especially call your ences strongly shape the capacity of the economic attention to the new Theda Skocpol Dissertation models to be used in specific ways, for good or Award. Dissertation advisors and chairs are ill. In the case of the United States, the profes- strongly encouraged to nominate dissertations sionalized and rational-choice orientation of eco- defended and filed between January 1, 2009 and nomics helped the discipline align with the pri- December 31, 2010. Further information can be vate sector and the . From this position, found on our webpage† (thanks to Robert Jansen economists in the U.S. can influence basic nor- for managing the webpage). I am grateful to the mative standards, including the definition of con- many people who agreed to serve on the prize cepts such as ―discrimination,‖ ―pollution,‖ and ―welfare.‖ † http://www2.asanet.org/sectionchs/ 3 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 committees: Nina Bandelj, Bart Bonikowski, Nitsan Chorev, Chad Alan Goldberg, Jeff Haydu, Meyer Kestnbaum, Greta Krippner, Mara Love- man, Isaac Martin, Dan Slater, Lynette Spillman, Matthias vom Hau, Andreas Wimmer, and Jona- than Wystzen. Finally, many thanks to incoming- chair Neil Fligstein for organizing our ASA 2011 sessions and to Emily Erikson and Isaac Reed for editing this newsletter.

References

Barkey, Karen. 2008. Empire of Difference: The Ottomans in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Fourcade, Marion. 2009. Economists and Socie- ties: Discipline and Profession in the United States, Britain, and France. Prin- ceton: Princeton University Press. Mann, Michael. 2005. The Dark Side of Democ- racy: Explaining Ethnic Cleansing. Cam- bridge: Cambridge University Press. Ragin, Charles C. 1987. The Comparative Me- thod: Moving Beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies. Berkeley: Univer- sity of California Press.

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Methodological Pluralism in Comparative-Historical Research Thoughts on Sequences in Comparative lized processes and those sequences that are evi- Historical Sociology‡ dence of social restructuring. In light of this persistent confusion, my aim in this short note is to advance the case for treating Katherine Stovel sequences as a temporal trace of social structures. University of Washington The advantage of this approach is that it locates

social sequences in more familiar concepts of in- If there are no beginnings and endings, there are stitutions, interaction, and historical process, and no stories. therefore may help focus attention on identifying Virginia Wolf, The Waves mechanisms that generate specific sequences.

Even the most cursory reading of empirical re- What are sequences? search in comparative historical sociology reveals I rely on a theoretically catholic definition of a profusion of references to the sequential nature § sequences, derived from my reading of historical of social and historical process. In addition to sociology: social sequences are empirically ob- these empirical studies, ongoing theoretical and served, temporally ordered regularities. This methodological debates within historical sociolo- definition is intentionally broad, and the first gy have centered around the related roles of con- three elements—that sequences are empirical, tingency, interdependence, narrative, and se- temporal, and ordered—are all relatively straight- quences in historical explanation (see, for exam- forward. Serious consideration of the issue of ple, Abbott 1997, Skocpol and Somers 1980, social regularity, however, provides an important Kiser and Hechter 1998, Mahoney 2000). In spite point of departure for understanding the relation- of all these references (and despite Abbott‘s best ship between generating mechanisms and ob- efforts to organize the field (eg., 1992 1995, Ab- served sequences—and provides an analytic basis bott and Tsay 2000)), there is still little consensus for excluding a whole host of historical moments among scholars about what a sequence refers to, from the category ―sequences.‖ let alone how we might best handle sequences theoretically or methodologically. One conse- Sequences are empirically observed quence of this cacophony is that it elides impor- While it is possible, and in some instances tant differences between types of historically ob- perhaps useful, to consider exclusively hypotheti- served sequence, and obscures the distinction be- cal or theoretically derived sequences (see Hard- tween sequences that reflect well- institutiona- ing 2003, Morgan and Winship 2007, and Maho- ney and Goertz 2006, on counterfactual reason- ‡ My thinking on this topic has benefited greatly from ongo- ing), it make sense to begin with empirically ob- ing conversations with Andrew Abbott, Peter Bearman, and served sequences. Traces of empirically observ- Steven Pfaff. Please do not cite without permission. Email: [email protected]. able sequences are composed of either (1) a set of diverse or heterogeneous states (e.g., jobs held) or § For example, we see sequential thinking invoked in analy- events (e.g., protests, elections, coups);** or (2) sis of the fall of the Bastille (Sewell 1996, Bearman, Faris and Moody 2000); in comparative studies of the French communes (Aminzade 1993); in a variety of diverse analys- ** We might also consider a variation on the first type of es of protest activity (Tarrow 1991, Minkoff 1997, Pfaff empirical trace: a set of diverse narrative elements catenat- 1996); in models of careers (Abbott and Hrycak ing into a discrete event or phenomena. Here—as in 1990;,Stovel, Savage, and Bearman 1996, Spilerman 1977); process-tracing—the emphasis is on disaggregating a single in micro-level models of the interactions associated with event in order to better understand or model the process by lynchings (Griffin 1993), strikes (Biggs 2000), and hie- which it came about. Micro-level examples include Larry rarchy formation (Chase 1980); in a narrative of state build- Griffin‘s careful examination of the sequence of events as- ing in early modern Europe (Clark 1995); and in a study of sociated with a particular lynching (Griffin 1993), and Mi- Southern lynching (Stovel 2001). Sequences also play a chael Bigg‘s study of the interaction sequences associated crucial role in the heralded methods known as ‗process- with strike activity in 1886 (Biggs 2000); similar approach- tracing‘ (Goldstone 1997, Mahoney 2008 es dominate in macro-level accounts of political change and economic development. While such analysis of the unfold- 5 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 the temporal distribution of a single type of event of an event is conditioned by the presence or ab- (e.g., strikes, riots, lynchings). sence of other events (Abbott 1992, Stovel 2001). In and of themselves, neither sets of diverse Above and beyond claims about contingent ef- events nor series of values of a single event are fects, in sequential situations significance comes necessarily evidence of an underlying reactive or from when an event occurs, and whether it pre- structured feedback process. However, absent cedes or follows other known occurrences. For such an empirical trace we are hard pressed to example, we may discover that for much of the evaluate whether a generating process might be 20th century, a life course trajectory in which meaningfully sequential. marriage followed children had very different consequences than one in which children follow Sequences are temporal marriage; models that examine only the occur- While we as analysts may retrospectively ob- rence of marriage, or children or even their joint serve sequences as complete entities, from the occurrence, will overlook the consequences of the actors‘ perspective sequences unfold prospective- order in which these events occur (see Hogan ly through time (though of course the scale and 1978 and Rindfuss, Swicegood, and Rosenfeld measure of time will vary dramatically from con- 1987 for examples of analyses of this type). text to context). The key is recognizing that se- quences span (and link) Sequences and regularity temporally distant mo- In addition to being ments, and in this re- …order effects move us empirically observed trac- spect are a form of what es of social phenomena in Danto terms ―narrative beyond the simple occur- which temporal order car- sentences‖ (1985). The rence of events (the aim of ries meaning, social se- question we must ask is, quences are characterized does temporality play a much normal science), and by some form of regularity role in causality (see or repetition. In his empir- Stinchombe's excellent focus our gaze directly on ical work on sequences, writing on this point situations where the signifi- Abbott has been a great (1968), also Haydu advocate of the importance 1998). For, as we all cane of an event is condi- of searching for frequent know, sometimes a se- empirical regularity in ries of events can be or- tioned by the presence or whole sequence structures ganized into a temporal absence of other events. (Abbott and Hrycak 1990, sequence without any Abbott 1995, Abbott and causal chain linking a Tsay 2000). Typical pat- prior state to a subsequent state. terns, he argues, are crucial both for actors them- selves and for analysts trying to make sense of Sequences have order effects social phenomena. Arguably one of the most theoretically power- Yet from where I sit the common use of the ful and analytically complex features of a se- term sequence has ignored important distinctions quence is the idea of an order effect. Put another in the type, and source, of regularity in social tra- way, the specific ordering of events or elements jectories. Consider two types of sequential regu- in a sequence distinguishes the content of one so- larity: on the one hand, the concept of a business cial trajectory from another. Thus order effects cycle refers to regular periods of expansion and move us beyond the simple occurrence of events contraction in an economic ; in such in- (the aim of much normal science), and focus our stances, we observe a regular pattern within a se- gaze directly on situations where the significance quence. Such patterning, of one event (or state) following another in predictable and connected ing of a series of heterogeneous events is the ‗bread-and- ways, may shed light on deep and general logics butter‘ of much historical sociology, it may –or may not— of social, political, or economic activities. On the meet the definition of a sequence offered here. other hand, regularity may mean a prevalent pat-

6 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 tern that repeats across observations, as in the available to subsequent social actors—even as the case of a well-defined career path.†† In this latter basic cycle of protest is repeated. case, discovery of a prevalent sequential pattern The recognition that the dynamics of social may reveal the presences of a highly institutiona- and political protest often generate a regular se- lized process that aligns the production of actors quence of events (both at the micro-level, as indi- with relevant positions in society. Hence differ- vidual events unfold, and at the macro-level, as ent forms of empirical regularity connote differ- protests trigger responses), has refocused scho- ent underlying processes that might generate the lars' attention on the temporal interdependence of observed social sequence. In the remainder of actors in the social arena. Further, some of this this note I illustrate the difference between with- work suggests that protest carries with it an endo- in- and across- sequence regularity, drawing ex- genous logic that transcends local conditions on amples from two major areas of study—social the ground. It may strike some as ironic that even movements and careers. during moments when actors seek to reshuffle social arrangements through extra-legal events, Within- and Between- Sequence Regularity such predictable reactive logics hold, yet this is Sequences in social protest exactly why such sequences are powerful; social A classic example of within-sequence regular- sequences reflect the operation of powerful social ity is the idea of a protest cycle (see especially structures through time. Traugott 1995 and Tarrow 1991 1995). Such protest cycles are composed of a characteristically Sequences in occupational work ordered set of events that reflect the interactions At the individual level, the classic example of between activists and state-controlling actors. a sequential pattern is the career. Like a protest Tarrow compares protest activity with business cycle, a career is a temporally ordered sequence cycles, arguing that each is triggered by structural of states (here, jobs), yet with careers the social or situational events, but unfolds (in regular significance derives not from internal regularity, ways) as a result of actions and reactions to the but from prevalence in a particular society. Spi- initiating event. ―In a protest cycle, as in a busi- lerman emphasized the importance of empirical ness cycle, the original factors that give rise to prevalence when he defines a career line as ―a protest are structural, but they cannot explain di- work history that is common to a portion of the rectly all the actions that take place within it. labor force" (Spilerman 1977, p. 551). Once the cycle begins, the actions of some groups By studying the careers of a collection of in- trigger responses by late-comers, which may be dividuals we may observe a set of regular career independent of the structural factors that incited lines. The analytic concept of career lines (with the early risers.‖ (1985, p. 51) its imagery of career ladders marked by regular Hence, while there is variation in the regulari- upward promotion) is strongly associated with ty of expression, increases in violent or confron- modern, bureaucratic internal labor markets, tational protest events are linked to rises in more which help regulate employment relations. In conventional expressions of grievance. In addi- such cases, complementary labor market institu- tion, during periods of heightened activity, protest tions structure the temporal experience of work- activity spreads from the center to the periphery, ers by offering relatively predictable opportunities thereby offering a theoretical linkage between a for upward mobility—reflected in empirically cyclical process and its capacity to spread to other observed sequences of jobs. Sometimes, by ex- contexts (where it is likely to be repeated). Final- amining data drawn from successive cohorts of ly, peaks of protest cycles may trigger innovation workers, we may observe the emergence of fun- in the repertoire of activities damentally new career lines—which reflects a change in the institutional environment. In our

historical analysis of career systems at Lloyds †† To further complicate the issue of regularity, common patterns may be observed in independent socio-historical Bank, we used optimal alignment techniques to contexts (different countries at different moments in time) trace the extent to which career structures at or may appear in settings where cases are –arguably— Lloyds Bank were transformed during the first subject to a common environment. quarter of this century, finding that changes in

7 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 both the internal environment (technological ad- that reflect the temporal trace of social structures. vance, increased use of women for clerical tasks) Of particular interest is the distinction between and the external environment (industry-wide deep social logics that endogenously produce mergers, the changing meaning of localism, de- temporal regularity (as in business or protest mand for white collar labor) created the context cycles), and institutionalized processes that pro- for radical restructuring of long-term employment duce actors who reproduce regular orders of patterns (Stovel, Savage, and Bearman 1996). events (as in careers). My focus on differentiat- Perhaps one of the most theoretically interest- ing within- and across- sequence regularity, how- ing features of career lines is that although they ever, has ignored another object of study that fre- are built from the past, employee knowledge of quently invokes sequences, namely, those streams the shape of existing career lines affects expecta- of historical events that are neither repeated nor tions (and, potentially, employees‘ strategic be- regular, but where future events are clearly con- haviors) prospec- tingent on early events. It tively—as when …career lines are social se- is without a doubt true that workers attempt to this broad class of topics, align their own ex- quences that represent the which includes some revo- perience with stan- lutions and other moments dard expectations of enactment of a social script: of widespread political and upward mobility actors themselves recognize or or economic change, has during a work histo- always animated much of ry. In this respect, believe in a cultural or norma- the field of comparative career lines are so- historical sociology. Yet in cial sequences that tive sequential order and our enthusiasm to identify represent the orient their behavior toward critical junctures (eg., Ca- enactment of a so- poccia and Kelemen 2007), cial script: actors their understanding of a par- or specify the conditions themselves recog- for path dependency (eg., nize or believe in a ticular sequential process. Pierson 2000, Mahoney cultural or norma- 2000), we should not ig- tive sequential order nore the extent to which and orient their behavior toward their understand- examination of regular social sequences provide a ing of a particular sequential process (Wu 2002). realistic view of how social structures shape ex- Key to this insight is the dual nature of careers: perience through time. they are produced jointly through the structured actions of employers and employees. If an ob- References served sequence is wholly determined by an ex- ternal structure, its existence or significance may Abbott, Andrew. 1997. ―On the Concept of a be lost on particular actors. Yet because careers Turning Point.‖ Comparative Social Re- are at least in part produced by organizations and search. 16: 85-105. labor market structures, individual actors rarely Abbott, Andrew. 1992. ―From Causes to can completely control their own destiny. Thus Events.‖ SMR 20: check pages because they force us to consider the interaction Abbott, Andrew. 1995. ―Sequence Analysis: between structural and subjective factors, the New Methods for Old Ideas.‖ Annual study of social sequences can guide our attention Review of Sociology 21:93-113. to the duality of forward- and backward-looking Abbott, Andrew and Alexandra Hrycak. 1990. social process. ―Measuring Resemblance in Sequence Data: An Optimal Matching Analysis of Beyond Regularity Musicians‘ Careers.‖ AJS 96:144-185. This note has highlighted various ways in which Abbott, Andrew and Angela Tsay. 2000. ―Se- the covering term 'sequences' may refer to a wide quence Analysis and Optimal Matching variety of empirically observed streams of events 8 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

Methods in Sociology.‖ Sociological Me- Hogan, Dennis. 1978. ―The Variable Order of thods and Research 29:3-33. Events in the Life Course.‖ ASR 43:573- Aminzade, Ronald. 1993. Ballots and Barri- 86. cades: Class Formation and Republican Kiser, Edgar and Michael Hechter. 1998. ―The Politics in France, 1830-1871. Princeton, Debate on Historical Sociology: Rational NJ: Princeton University Press. Choice Theory and Its Critics.‖ AJS Bearman, Peter and Katherine Stovel. 2000. 104:785-816. ―Becoming a Nazi: A Model for Narra- Mahoney, James. 2000. ―Path dependence in tive Networks.‖ Poetics 27:69-90. historical sociology.‖ Theory and Society Bearman, Peter, Robert Faris, and James Moody. 29:507-548. 1999. ―Blocking the Future: New Solu- Mahoney, James. 2008. ―Toward a Unified tions for Old Problems in Historical So- Theory of Causality.‖ Comparative Polit- cial Science.‖ History ical Studies 41:412-436. 23:501-534. Mahoney, James and Gary Goertz. 2006. ―A Biggs, Michael. 2000. The Rise and Decline of a Tale of Two Cultures: Contrasting Quan- Mass Movement: American Workers and titative and .‖ Politi- the Strike Wave of 1886. Ph.D. Disserta- cal Analysi. 14:227-249 tion, Department of Sociology, Harvard Minkoff, Debra. 1997. ―The Sequencing of So- University. cial Movements.‖ ASR. 62:779-799. Cappocia, Giovanni and R. Daniel Kelemen. Morgan, Steven and Christopher Winship. 2007. 2007. ―The Study of Critical Junctures Counterfactuals and Causal Inference. Theory, Narrative, and Counterfactuals in Cambridge University Press. Historical Institutionalism.‖ World Poli- Pfaff, Steven. 1996. ―Collective Identity and In- tics 59:341-369. formal Groups in Revolutionary Mobiliza- Chase, Ivan. 1980. ―Social Process and Hie- tion: East Germany in 1989.‖ Social rarchy Formation in Small Groups: A Forces 75:91-118. Comparative Perspective.‖ ASR 45:905- Pierson, Paul. 1997. ―Increasing Returns, Path 924. Dependence and the Study of Politics.‖ Clark, Samuel. 1995. State and Status: The Rise American Review 94: of the State and Aristocratic Power in 251-267 Western Europe. Montreal: McGill- Rindfuss, Ronald, C. Gray Swicegood, and Ra- Queen‘s University Press. chel Rosenfeld. 1987. "Disorder in the Goldstone, Jack. 1997. Methodological Issues in life course: How common and does it Comparative JAI Press. matter." ASR 52:785-801. Griffin, Larry. 1993. "Narrative, event-structure Skocpol, Theda and Margaret Somers. 1980. analysis, and causal interpretation." AJS ―The Uses of Comparative History in Ma- 98:1094-1133. crosocial Inquiry.‖ Comparative Studies Danto, Arthur C. 1985. Narration and Know- in Society and History 22:174-97. ledge. New York: Columbia University Stinchcombe, Arthur L. 1968. Constructing So- Press. cial Theories. Chicago: University of Harding, David. 2003. ―Counterfactual Models Chicago Press. of Neighborhood Effects: The Effect of Sewell, William. 1996. ―Historical events as Neighborhood Poverty on Dropping Out transformations of structures: Inventing and Teenage Pregnancy.‖ American revolution at the Bastille.‖ Theory and Journal of Sociology. 109: 676-719. Society, 25/26:841-881. Haydu, Jeffery. 1998. ―Making Use of the Past: Spilerman, Seymour. 1977. ―Careers, Labor Time Periods as Cases to Compare and as Market Structure, and Socioeconomic Sequences of Problem Solving.‖ AJS Achievement.‖ AJS 83:551-593. 104:339-371. Stovel, Katherine. 2001. ―Local Sequential Pat- terns: The Structure of Lynching in the

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Deep South, 1882-1930.‖ Social Forces First, since the initiation of the ‗new science 79:843-880. of networks‘ in the late 1990s (Barabási 2002; Stovel, Katherine, Michael Savage, and Peter Watts 2004), there has been an explosion in the Bearman. 1996. ―Ascription into application of network concepts across discip- Achievement: Models of Career Systems lines, including sociology. This explosion has at Lloyds Bank, 1890-1970. AJS reverberated within historical sociology to a 102:358-399. noteworthy extent. It no longer will do to ex- Tarrow, Sydney. 1995. ―Cycles of Collective amine only Bearman (1993), Padgett and Ansell Action: Between Moments of Madness (1993), and Gould (1995) to cover the state of the and the Repertoire of Contention.‖ Pp. art in historical network analysis. Second, in his 89-115 in Mark Traugott, ed., Repertoires essay, Gould expressed caution about the ―over- and Cycles of Collective Action. Dur- enthusiastic‖ (2003: 242) application of network ham, NC: Duke University Press. concepts to data that is not explicitly about social Tarrow, Sydney. 1991. Struggle, Politics, and relationships. I think I know what he means. If Reform: Collective Action, Social anything, we are in a more dangerous time now Movements, and Cycles of Protest. Itha- than ever before with respect to the overhasty ap- ca, NY: Cornell Studies in International plication of network tools in our research. For Affairs, Western Societies Paper. God knows what reason I am reminded of a very Traugott, Mark (editor). 1995. Repertoires and old tv commercial. Announcer says: ―Dogs love Cycles of Collective Action. Durham, cheese!‖ Well, people love networks. Can‘t get NC: Duke University Press. enough of them, really. Figure out a networks Wu, Lawrence L. 2000. ―Some Comments on angle. There‘s this thing called Facebook. And ‗Sequence Analysis and Optimal Match- so on. I say all of this in my grumpiest tone of ing Methods in Sociology: Review and voice while also casting an admiring eye on many Prospect.‖ Sociological Methods and Re- an ingenious use of network tools by young re- search 29: 41-64. searchers. I don‘t want to discourage anyone from using network tools creatively. However, to Using Network Analysis in believe network tools will deliver us the pot at the Comparative-Historical Research end of the scientific rainbow is illusory— although skill with those tools might land you a

job in a premier business school! One problem Paul McLean continues to be—perhaps less so in historical so- Rutgers University ciology than in other disciplines—a fetishizing of

the method for its own sake, without anchor in

the substantive puzzles we are trying to under- ―The enterprise of employing structural analysis stand. The challenge lies in using network con- in historical research is a particularly fruitful way cepts, especially relatively new (or fashionable) to generate new insights and questions and to re- network concepts, to tell us something persua- frame or resolve old ones‖ (Gould 2003: 241-2). sively real, but also fresh and interesting, about

historical conjunctures and historical develop- A cleverer person than I wrote this not so long ment. ago, and probably in a more widely accessible What can network analysis do for us? Here location than this ephemeral thought-piece in an are some quick and dirty answers to that question. ASA newsletter. I could come in considerably First, using network methods is one way to think under my allotted quota of words if I simply said: relationally in a systematic and rigorous way go read Roger‘s book chapter on this topic. about social life (Emirbayer 1997). It‘s certainly However, a couple of things have changed in the not the only way to do so, but it encourages that last five years or so that incline me to offer a mindset and offers tools for operationalizing that slightly different gloss than the one Roger of- theoretical meta-perspective. Second, as Gould fered. (2003: 258) pointed out, network methods have helped us think about the way group identities 10 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 emerge out of, get reinforced, or get suppressed, new groups, organizational forms, or industries, through patterns of interaction. Third, network out of network interactions. This is the driving analysis can help us to identify the salience or force behind Woody Powell‘s work with several influence of particular structural positions or net- collaborators (Powell et al. 2005) over the last work configurations and thereby explain the ad- many years on the emergence and development of vantages (or disadvantages) accruing to occupants the biotech industry out of the evolving interac- of those positions. Work from the 1990s was ex- tions among different types of organizational ac- cellent on these fronts, but newer work also tors, spurred by the input of crucial resources makes stimulating contributions. For example, from government agencies and universities. Uzzi and Spiro (2005) examine the small world Powell‘s forthcoming book with John Padgett network structure of Gol- (Padgett and Powell den Age Broadway to as- 2011) with contribu- sess its impact on partici- The challenge lies in using tions by several other pants‘ creativity and suc- network concepts, especially authors promises to cess. Here the positions of be a state-of-the-art particular actors, but also relatively new (or fashiona- statement of this vein the structure of the network of research. as a whole, are explored as ble) network concepts, to tell Another theme of factors contributing to in- us something persuasively developing impor- novation. Paolo Parigi tance has been to es- (2010) examines networks real, but also fresh and inter- tablish how actors‘ of acolytes, and concomi- positions in certain tantly networks of mi- esting, about historical con- social networks ena- racles, supporting the ca- junctures and historical de- ble their position or nonization of particular mobility in other saints in the seventeenth velopment. networks—a so- century Catholic Church. called „multiple net- Successful pleas for canonization were typically works‟ perspective. Some recent work I have supported by a support network of hybrid social been doing with Neha Gondal on personal lend- composition, as well as by convincing narration ing in Florence (Gondal and McLean 2010) of the miracles as a linked set of events. I (2011) points in this direction, as well as the research have tried to show how Polish elite social net- John Padgett and I have carried out on Florentine works became cleaved in the late 18th century in commercial credit (Padgett and McLean 2011). I such a way that clearer lines of political differ- tried something along the same lines, although ence emerged, ushering in a transition from fac- with less methodological sophistication, in work tional politics to party-based politics. And Sou- on office-holding in early modern Poland rabh Singh (2010) has ambitiously mapped the (McLean 2004), where I documented the effect of evolving social composition of the post- marriage network connections over time on dif- Independence Indian political elite, showing in ferent subgroups of the Senatorial office-holding particular how Indira Gandhi‘s centrality with elite. Henning Hillman (2008a, 2008b) has ex- respect to her family dynasty, combined with her plored the classic networks theme of brokerage in marginality with respect to the Congress Party different historical cases, but in so doing has establishment, contributed to the formation of her shown the importance of economic elites in the particular style of politics and provided impetus construction of political alliances. And I can‘t for the imposition of the state of Emergency in resist expressing my admiration for Ann Mische‘s 1975. (2007) theoretically fecund treatment of the way More recently, it seems to me a new and skilled student activists managed the overlap slightly different set of themes are also being ex- among multiple networks of constituents in Bra- plored through the use of network tools. One is zil‘s 1992 democratization campaign. In fact the to move beyond arguments about the consolida- ‗multiple networks‘ theme is one where questions tion of group identities to study the emergence of of culture and of networks seem to impinge most 11 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 vitally on each other (Pachucki and Breiger garian economy as a gradual, patterned growth of 2010). networks of mutually dependent firms, in part Yet another important theme currently flower- generated through the process of property recom- ing, in part inspired by the exponential random bination. graph models developed by network methodolo- Going beyond a series of snapshots in the re- gists (for example, Robins et al. 2005), is to in- presentation of evolving networks is a desirable vestigate how historical patterns of microinterac- next step. Software developments are gradually tion aggregate into large-scale structures. For allowing us to depict network evolution dynami- example, Gondal and I (2010) use an ERGM cally. One subtle and visually alluring (though model explicitly in our research on Florentine not statistical) procedure for grasping network lending to link the distribution of particular dya- dynamics is the SoNIA program Skye Bender- dic and triadic configurations to the organization deMoll and Dan McFarland have developed of the network as a whole, and in turn to the (http://www.stanford.edu/group/sonia/; also see meaning lending took on in the aggregate. But Moody, McFarland and Bender-deMoll 2005). the work of Powell et al. (2005) also exemplifies Here the growth and decline of networks, the the theme of linking micro to macro. They use flow of participants in and out, the changing iden- both the attributes of actors and the characteris- tities of the actors, the emergence of large com- tics and history of dyadic ties between biotech ponents and the like, can all be grasped visual- firms and their collaborators to assess statistically ly—something one would expect historical soci- which micromechanisms are most responsible for ologists to appreciate greatly, given our stress on generating the macrostructure of the evolving the temporality of social life—although SoNIA is field of American commercial biotechnology. not that great at handling and representing the One could include the work of Erikson and multiple temporal rhythms that comparative- Bearman (2006) here, too, as they demonstrate by historical sociologists know affect social out- means of anchoring a to its exact comes (Pierson 2003). I (2010) am currently ex- geographical coordinates how individually oppor- ploring the value of SoNIA for assessing how the tunistic voyages undertaken by English traders in Polish elite marriage market evolved over many the 17th-19th centuries accreted unintentionally decades, and I‘d like to see others try their hand into, as they put it, a ―dense, fully integrated, at the program! Perhaps we will get to the point global trade network.‖ of actually visualizing conjunctures, or seeing The longitudinal treatment of social networks alliances grow past critical threshold points, or is a crucial and growing part of networks research assessing the centrality of actors with more sensi- in historical sociology. A recent book by Quentin tivity to how positions of power can be temporal- Van Doosselaere (2009) is a noteworthy example, ly evanescent. a study of the changing social composition of In his review, Gould also noted that ―the ab- economic activity (interactional activity like con- straction of network methods can help to reveal tract-making, insurance underwriting, and so on) commonalities across diverse contexts—an in Genoa over the course of three centuries. The enormously valuable feature for comparativists work also speaks to the micro-macro theme I al- interested in uncovering regularities‖ (2003: 251). luded to above: the 20,000-plus economic ‗part- That sounds great. And there is some hope that nerships‘ he studies agglomerate into economy- with precise operationalization of structural con- level structures manifesting various degrees of cepts like centrality, influence, structural equiva- cohesiveness and centralization, which in turn tell lence, and diffusion, we can offer persuasive evi- us about the organization of economic activity in dence of general patterns of social interaction. the aggregate. In turn the bigger point surely is But as historians, or at least quasi-historians, we that social embeddedness was crucial for the also know history is very messy and selection of Commerical Revolution and thence the takeoff of comparable cases is fraught with difficulty. If we ‗capitalism‘ from the very beginning. A compa- have a fixed institutional object in many cases— rably incredible dataset and analytical effort is let‘s say, ―the state,‖ to take an example anything offered by Stark and Vedres (2006) in their analy- but at random—we can handle comparison. I sis of the entire history of the post-socialist Hun- don‘t think practitioners of network methods have 12 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 yet developed a clear set of cases to compare. data to complement the structural stories we tell, What is Florence like, or unlike? Part of this is a and to ensure that they merit credence. problem of data availability, part of it is the mas- sive difference between cases on all kinds of con- References textual dimensions. It would be great to generate comparability in the application of key terms. Barabási, Albert-László. 2002. Linked: The New But I fear the comparability of cases remains fra- Science of Networks. Perseus. gile and consequently our ability to develop gen- Bearman, Peter S. 1993. Relations into Rhetor- eral findings remains rather feeble. If I were to ics Local Elite in Nor- put it cynically, what we find is a potpourri of folk, England, 1540-1640. New Bruns- highly individual cases used to illustrate specific wick, NJ: Rutgers University Press. theoretical arguments which we hope accumulate Emirbayer, Mustafa. 1997. ―Manifesto for a into a set of abstract and general principles of so- ,‖ American Journal cial organization; but those principles then re- of Sociology 103,2: 281-317. quire considerable translation to be applied to Erikson, Emily, and Peter Bearman. 2006. ―Mal- specific other cases. That, to me, remains a feasance and the Foundations for Global shortcoming. Trade: The Structure of English Trade in By way of wrapping this up, let me say I be- the East Indies, 1601–1833.‖ American lieve networks and history ‗go together,‘ in that Journal of Sociology 112(1):195-230. history provides us with relational data on popu- Gondal, Neha, and Paul D. McLean. 2010. lations, and alliances, and markets, and social ―Discerning Meaning in Complex Struc- movement mobilizations, and so on, that, perhaps ture: Understanding Personal Lending in simply because they have been preserved, strike Florence‘s Multiple Networks Ecology,‖ us as worthy of study. Also contributing to a per- American Sociological Association Meet- ceived affinity between networks and history is ings, Atlanta, GA, August 2010. the relative fixity of the past, rendering it especial- Gould, Roger V. 1995. Insurgent Identities: ly conducive to structural analysis. Perhaps most Class, Community, and Insurrection in important, we have some intuitive sense that Paris from 1848 to the Commune. Chica- momentous events are produced out of interac- go: University of Chicago Press. tions that gather in interesting ways and processes Gould, Roger V. 2003. ―Uses of Network Tools of that well up from below. Net- in Comparative Historical Research.‖ Pp. work analysis can help us tap into those pheno- 241-69 in James Mahoney and Dietrich mena—although confirming our intuition formal- Rueschemeyer, eds., Comparative Histor- ly, and comprehensively, and cogently, using ical Analysis in the Social Sciences. Cam- structural evidence, remains an imposing chal- bridge: Cambridge University Press. lenge. Hillmann, Henning. 2008a. ―Localism and the Network approaches can offer, in my opinion, Limits of Political Brokerage: Evidence intricate, ingenious, and aesthetically pleasing from Revolutionary Vermont,‖ American explanations. Reading exemplary studies in this Journal of Sociology 114: 287-331. area one feels a certain exhilaration that we are Hillmann, Henning. 2008b. ―Mediation in Mul- seeing the world in a highly refreshing way. tiple Networks: Elite Mobilization before Network methods can give us access to broad pat- the English Civil War.‖ American Socio- terns, macrodynamics, and increasingly, a pre- logical Review 73: 426-54. cisely specified but also interpretively nuanced McLean, Paul D. 2004. ―Widening Access way to connect microbehavior to structural out- While Tightening Control: Office- comes. The static quality of network depiction in Holding, Marriages and Elite Consolida- the past will give way to more processual analys- tion in Early Modern Poland.‖ Theory and es and representations. And so I am optimistic Society 33:167-212. about the future of a networks approach in histor- McLean, Paul D. 2010. ―Marriage Networks and ical sociology, even though I still adamantly sup- Political Power in Poland, 1500-1795: port thorough immersion in real-world historical Dynamic Visualization,‖ Sunbelt Social 13 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

Networks Conference, Riva del Garda, It- boration in the Life Sciences,‖ American aly, July 2010. Journal of Sociology 110:1132-1205. McLean, Paul D. 2011. ―Patrimonialism and Robins, G., P. Pattison, and J. Woolcock. 2005. Elite Networks in Late Eighteenth Cen- ―Small and Other Worlds: Global Net- tury Poland,‖ in Julia Adams and Mounira work Structures from Local Processes.‖ M. Charrad, editors, The Power of Kin- American Journal of Sociology 110, 4: ship: Patrimonial States in Global Pers- 894-936. pective. Forthcoming in Volume 636 of Singh, Sourabh. 2010. ―Tracing Indira Gandhi's The Annals of the American Association Trajectory in the Field of Postcolonial In- of Political and Social Science. dian Politics.‖ American Sociological Mische, Ann. 2007. Partisan Publics: Commu- Association Meetings, Atlanta, GA, Au- nication and Contention across Brazilian gust 2010. Youth Activist Networks. Princeton: Prin- Stark, David, and Balász Vedres. 2006. ―Social ceton University Press. Times of Network Spaces: Network Se- Moody, James, Daniel McFarland and Skye quences and Foreign Investment in Hun- Bender-deMoll. 2005. ―Dynamic Net- gary.‖ American Journal of Sociology work Visualization.‖ American Journal 111: 1367-1411. of Sociology 110, 4: 1206-41. Uzzi, Brian, and Jarrett Spiro. 2005. ―Collabora- Pachucki, Mark A. and Ronald L. Breiger. 2010. tion and Creativity: The Small World Cultural Holes: Beyond Relationality in Problem.‖ American Journal of Sociology Social Networks and Culture.‖ Annual 111(2):447-504. Review of Sociology 36: 205-24. Van Doosselaere, Quentin. 2009. Commercial Padgett, John F., and Christopher K. Ansell. Agreements and in Me- 1993. ―Robust Action and the Rise of the dieval Genoa. New York: Cambridge Medici, 1400-1434.‖ American Journal University Press. of Sociology 98: 1259-1319. Watts, Duncan J. 2004. ―The ‗New‘ Science of Padgett, John F. and Paul D. McLean. 2011. Networks. Annual Review of Sociology ―Economic Credit in Flo- 30: 243-70. rence.‖ Journal of Modern History 83, 1: xx-xx. Padgett, John F., and Walter W. Powell. 2011. Mathematical and Simulation Models ―The Problem of Emergence.‖ In John F. (with research & model evaluation Padgett and Walter W. Powell, eds., The suggestions) Emergence of Organizations and Markets. Scott A. Boorman Princeton: Princeton University Press. Yale University Parigi, Paolo. 2010. ―Evidence Based Historical Sociology.‖ American Sociological As- Introductory Note: Sections A.3 and A.4 below sociation Meetings, Atlanta, GA, August are an excerpt from a longer invited paper, en- 2010. titled ―A Larger Model-Building Context for Vis- Pierson, Paul. 2003. ―Big, Slow-Moving, and … ual Models,‖ that I presented in Florence in Invisible: Macrosocial Processes in the March 2010 at an European University Institute Study of .‖ Pp. 177- Workshop on ―The Past, History and Visualisa- 207 in James Mahoney and Dietrich Rue- tion.‖ Understanding the concept of ―model‖ schemeyer, eds., Comparative Historical broadly (and slightly privileging the ―visual mod- Analysis in the Social Sciences. Cam- els‖ category in view of the workshop theme), bridge: Cambridge University Press. that paper begins with a 5-part typology of mod- Powell, W. W., Douglas R. White, Kenneth W. els, including types mathematical and simulation Koput, and Jason Owen-Smith. 2005. & gaming. ―Network Dynamics and Field Evolution: Excursus on a part of the Chinese Revolution. I The Growth of Inter-organizational Colla- believe the goal of encouraging further develop- ment of comparative-historical sociology‘s for- 14 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 mal model-building flank is best served by il- Thinking analogically (as all good model-builders lustrating one concrete context where investment should!) there is an undeveloped (so far as I am in ambitious model-building might shed light. aware), but potentially far-reaching and analyti- Although on first impression the model-building cally valuable, analogy between (1) the historical direction proposed here may appear to be a ver- process just profiled and (2) a specific type of sion of simulation modeling, crucial insight nonlinear dynamic system behavior. At the outset comes from a type of mathematical conservation it needs to be recognized that the proposed di- (conservation of Poincaré index), so that ma- rection of model-building pivots on a particular jor analytical power also comes out of mathemat- scientific style (see A.3.3 in my EUI paper), one ical modeling. that would accept an ideal-type description of the The year was 1937. Following the Marco Polo stunningly complex, locally variable, socio- Bridge incident, the Japanese Army rolled into political dynamics of Communist mobilization North China. The Chinese Nationalist govern- whose details Chinese and Western historians are ment was soon forced far into China‘s vast inte- gradually clarifying, in exchange for a type of ba- rior. Yet the Japanese Army in North China had sic analytical insight on a large canvas (what the capability to control little more than urban mathematicians call ―a global mathematical lev- areas and connecting rail lines. Into this power el‖) that no available can rival. vacuum moved the Chinese Communists, to that To get the model started – consciously putting point (as of the Long March‘s end in 1936) large- aside the many refinements and qualifications ly confined to a remote area of China‘s northwest. that reading of relevant historiography invites – In a dramatically successful instance of politi- consider a contest between individuals of two cal warfare on a massive canvas, Mao‘s forces ―types‖ M and ~M (think ―mobilized to support spent much of World War II consolidating power the Communist cause‖ vs. ―not mobilized‖) who across the North China countryside. While sig- are distributed across a network of weakly nificant fighting with the Japanese (and the Na- coupled ―islands.‖ Dynamics at each island are tionalists) did occur, much of the relevant dynam- governed by frequency-dependent selection with ic consisted of disciplined, cumulative political a threshold.‡‡ Taking a very simple case, if the mobilization & organization, gauging frequency of the Ms is < threshold at a given isl- county-by-county – or village-by-village. This and, the contest there tends (in a stochastic was a significantly decentralized socio-political process sense) to decrease that frequency toward process. Although the statistics tell a story of suc- 0 (think: ―local Communist support is elimin- cess – the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) grew ated‖); if the frequency of Ms > threshold, the from about 20,000 members in 1936 to around opposite result obtains with M frequency then 1,250,000 by 1945 – there were formidable diffi- tending to increase toward 1 (think: complete lo- culties to be surmounted along the way (obstacles cal Communist control). Take as the initial con- that are becoming clearer as the historiog-raphy dition one island having 100% Ms and all others advances). Among those obstacles (in many mix- having 100% ~Ms. Starting from this initial con- es depending on locale, creating a situa-tion dition, the mathematical behavior of interest then where the CCP could take little for granted) were occurs when the single initially 100% M island is parochial peasants; entrenched local elites; Na- able, through a joint process of migration (or oth- tionalist supporters; all interwoven in a such a er communication) between islands and dynamics tangled skein that the CCP itself at times turned within islands, to ―tip‖ first its neighboring isl- to ethnographic techniques to seek clarification of ands, then the neighbors of those islands in turn, local roots of opposition (!); and, of course, the and so on – until the ~Ms have been displaced by Japanese army plus military forces loyal to the Ms in the full island network. When one island is Nationalists – or to warlords like Yan Xishan. Capturing the distilled essence of the resulting ‡‡ For clarity, it should be noted that this threshold relates to amalgam of opportunity, contingency, and (ulti- frequency of the Ms in a particular population. It is hence a mately) major Communist momentum would be a population-level construct, by contrast to the thresholds in first-rate analytic target for formal model- Mark Granovetter‘s ―Threshold models of collective beha- building. Here I offer a concrete suggestion. vior,‖ American Journal of Sociology, 1978, 83, 1420-43, which are individual-level constructs. 15 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 able successfully to tip, say, 1,000 islands in this again goes unvexed to the sea.‖ Transposing this way, the resultant takeover effect – which in our imagery from physical space to phase space, one 1980 book Paul R. Levitt and I termed the ―cas- basic facet of the North China strategic chal-lenge cade effect‖ – is indeed dramatic. facing the Chinese Communist leadership may be From the vantage of an external observer, modeled as the tuning of interactions between what that observer would see as a successful islands (think flows of key cadres, for example) cascade unfolds is an apparently inexorable to enable fixed points A and B existing in a phase march of the Ms to replace all the ~Ms – a story- plane that is basic to the Boorman-Levitt cascade line that resonates with much received historio- model‘s analysis (see Fig. 1) to coalesce and an- graphy on the expansion of the Eighth Route Ar- nihilate one another – thereby freeing a trajectory my across North China. Yet on deeper analysis it starting far in the northwest corner of the phase turns out that a successful cascade, when it oc- plane to ―go unvexed‖ to fixed point C located in curs, is often far from inevitable. For example, a the northeast and corresponding to a successful seemingly slight varia- ―takeover‖ by the M tion in migration and type. (The relevant ma- dynamics may lead to thematical theory here a very different out- related to conservation come, one where the of the Poincaré index ~Ms end up out- [see Boorman & Levitt, competing and elimi- 1980 book, p. 103].) nating the Ms. No one to my know- In the longue durée ledge has tried her hand of the biological evo- at thus combining the lution case that is foc- unplanned dynamic al in the 1980 book, sys- there is no strategic tems level of the actor waiting in the Boorman-Levitt cas- wings to facilitate & cade model with this guide the dynamics of kind of overlay of cen- a sought-for Boorman- tralized if partial con- Levitt cascade – e.g., trol, so there is ample Figure 1. Phase diagram showing equilibria A,B,C, etc. – some tinkering strategically stable, some not, of a nonlinear dynamic system used to analyze intellectual virgin terri- with the inter-island the emergence of certain types of social behavior on a biological tory here. Along the couplings (which, in a evolutionary timescale (Scott A. Boorman & Paul R. Levitt, The way there are also fur- human Genetics of Altruism, 1980, p. 112, Fig. 4.10) ther important unre- population context, solved challenges for would naturally involve flows of communications the model-builder – notably, how to develop a in addition to people). In adapting the Boorman- simple but compelling microdynamics to the cap- Levitt formalism to the 1937-45 Chinese case, ture dynamics at a single island (i.e., which would there would need to be an enrichment of the for- play an malism to capture the powerful – if often incom- analytical role in the North China model akin to plete – strategic control exercised by Chinese that of the Boorman & Levitt ―minimal model‖ in Communist leadership in Yenan over flows of Chapter 2 of the 1980 book). Doing this right personnel, information, and other re-sources calls for model-building imagination plus elbow among relevant ―islands‖ (e.g., villages or other grease – importantly building on careful analysis geographic localities in North China). of the historiography of Chinese Communism in Clarifying an operational target of such con- the Sino-Japanese war years. trol, recall the American Civil War and Abraham Although a good can Lincoln‘s comment about the Mississippi after shed light on many levels at once, a key piece of the Union capture of Vicksburg (a key turning historiographical paydirt from the proposed fol- point in that struggle): ―The Father of Waters lowup to the Boorman-Levitt cascade model 16 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 would be significantly deeper understanding – in nimity, apparently because people expect the in- a case of world-historical importance – of the ternal machinery of such models to be opaque to nuanced interplay between , structure, and everybody, not just to non-mathematicians!) contingency in a setting of major sociopolitical While there are few shortcuts to mathematical mobilization. As a coauthor and I suggested (in a expertise, the following are some lines of inquiry paper published prior to my work on cascades): that can often be productively explored – in give-

Figure 2a and 2b. Successful vs. unsuccessful cascade attempts (different choices of migration parameter m (Boorman & Levitt, 1980, p. 84)

―Communist victory, Mao Tse-tung to the con- and-take with a mathematical modeler – by trary, was not inevitable in China.‖ someone without a lot of technical background: 1. How deep is the connection between the A.3. Mathematical models phenomenon a given model aims to analyze and Building directly on the power of modern ma- the mathematics used? Illustrating one extreme of thematics, this is an enormously rich and a depth continuum is mathematical work like that internally diverse vein of model-building – yet described by the title theme of physicist Eugene one whose serious and sustained development in Wigner‘s famous essay ―The unreasonable effec- the human sciences is of actually relatively recent tiveness of mathematics in the natural sciences,‖ origin, only really hitting stride (despite some ear- which uses words like ―eerie‖ to describe harmo- ly creative flashes) in the decades following nies between, e.g., (a) quantum physics and (b) World War II. certain mathematical structures ultimately anc- For scholars whose training falls outside of hored in properties of the square root of -1. mathematics & allied areas, mathematical models At the opposite extreme are models – perhaps are widely perceived as mysterious – probably most commonly encountered in fields that have more so than any other List A model type (this yet to see much mathematical model-building in- refers to a list of five basic types of models – ver- vestment – having little more than the trappings bal, visual, mathematical, simulation & gaming, of mathematics, and where the principal analyti- cultural-analogical). (Perhaps paradoxically, the cal insights could be attained by more widely ac- ―black box‖ quality of many computer simulation cessible means (as via a verbal model – or a visu- models seems to be widely accepted with equa- alization).

17 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

The lion‘s share of mathematical models fall ther, certain (though again not all) mathematical somewhere in-between on this continuum – and models contain seeds of an operational capability. an excellent line of questioning for a constructive 4. What is a given mathematical model‟s rela- critic to probe is where a particular model- tionship to data? That relationship may vary building effort is located on this continuum. Al- greatly – indeed far more than is commonly ap- though the mathematical depth of which Wigner preciated. For example, many non-modelers au- writes is probably not rivaled in any of the human tomatically assume that any mathematical model sciences, there is, for example, no question that is somehow ―fitted to‖ (i.e., tested against) quan- parts of economic theory have a quite genuine – titative data. In fact, many mathematical models – at times deep – mathematical structure (much of including some highly influential ones – are too it closely related to the theory of convex sets). abstract, and also often too data hungry, ever to 2. Where is the specific power of a mathemat- be tested in detail against empirical data in the ical model coming from? For example, is that manner envisioned by textbooks of scientific me- model anchored in traditions of mathematical thod. For example, for close to a century – from analysis ultimately flowing from the calculus (as work of Walras in the 1870s to the 1960s advent is true of a host of models) – or does the model of the Scarf algorithm & computable equilibria – draw on traditions of abstract algebra (as, e.g., do the general equilibrium theory (GET) modeling some important types of )? tradition in economics had quite limited tangency Or does the model build on ideas out of combina- to the world of economic data. Yet GET has torics & discrete mathematics, which has its own played a fundamental & highly positive role, identity as a stream of 20th century mathematics? spanning multiple human generations, in helping (All these major streams of mathematics contain to clarify & refine basic econom-ic concepts – substreams, so that this broad direction of ques- and, on a separate level, its existence has also tioning can be substantially refined.) provided a level of conceptual unity & intellec- 3. What are a given mathematical model‟s key tual discipline for economics far outstripping that “stylistic” features? As a way of coping with the of many other major social science areas. level of abstraction involved, it can often be help- Although the details vary, within both game- ful initially to engage with mathematical model- theoretic and, separately, social-network- ing on a stylistic level. A classic comparative analytical traditions there is again great diversity analysis of mathematical/computational modeling in how the formal models relate to data. styles (not, by the way, confined to population 5. Is a given mathematical model best ap- biology) is Richard Levins, ―The strategy of proached as a stand-alone product, geared to model-building in population biology,‖ American variations on a single substantive theme or ques- Scientist, 1966, 54, 421-31, distinguishing models tion – or should it be approached as a represent- on dimensions of (1) generality, (2) realism, & (3) ative of a larger family of distinct but interlock- precision, whose tradeoffs Levins analyzes. (See ing models shedding light on a major substantive also exchange between Levins & critics: Quarter- area containing diverse questions? An example ly Review of Biology, 1993, 68, 533-555.) D.R. of the latter is models extending the mathematical Cox (Statistical Science, 2001, 16, p. 217) also population genetics tradition of Sewall Wright, invokes en passant a concept of style in modeling J.B.S. Haldane, & R.A. Fisher to shed evolu- context. tionary light on patterns of intraspecific altruism A separate stylistic difference is between & related social phenomena. A scientific hunch models centered on ―positive‖ vs. ―negative‖ in- that this research direction might in fact turn up a sights or results. The latter are classically exem- major family of interlocking models with sub- plified by Kenneth Arrow‘s famous impossibility stantial intellectual unity & coherence was the theorem (Arrow, 1951). A very important subge- genesis of my work with Paul R. Levitt leading to nre of the former is mathematical models that The Genetics of Altruism (1980). ―build‖ something – e.g., a structure – as, for ex- As a challenge question, one may speculate ample, do some (though not all) social network that other, quite different but comparably rich, models. Taking this ―building‖ idea a step fur- families of interlocking mathematical models have yet to be discovered by anybody. 18 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

possibilities then outstrips any physically possible A.4. Simulation models & gaming computing capability. A simulation model is a representation of It is a good rule of thumb that moving a simu- some process, commonly one unfolding in real lation from concept to practice always calls for time. The model helps the analyst to explore that more assumptions – i.e., more parameters – than process – e.g., what happens if a slight change in is first apparent. One situation in which parame- assumptions is made. While mathematical analy- ters particularly proliferate is when (often in the sis may also be able to shed light on questions of name of greater realism) one starts allowing for this type, what gives simulation a potential edge actors‘ individual differences within a simulation is its promise – provided the simulation is cor- model. rectly implemented in software – of clarifying a Although in specific contexts the tale just told process too complex to be clarified by purely ma- may err on the side of pessimism, these cautions thematical modeling (or indeed other!) means. about simulation are broadly justified – and per- Computing advances have partially turned si- haps especially so when making attempts to simu- mulation into a truly potent analytic tool, at its late the complex, little-explored, scantily docu- best capable of shedding light on previously inac- mented processes of the sort in which historians cessible research questions. However, unlike the or historically-minded social scientists are often universalistic theorems or other general insights most interested. Need for realistic thinking about that analysis of a mathematical model often pro- what simulation can – and cannot – be expected vides, simulation results are typically enormously to accomplish is particularly important as an off- particularistic – tied to specific assumptions set to uncritical views in some simulation- reaching down to a level of particular numerical oriented quarters. Enthusiasts of simulation are at values assigned to particular parameters. In the times inclined to try to convert the difficulties just background lies a version of the ―curse of dimen- depicted into a rhetorical selling point (!) of simu- sionality.‖ At least in the human sciences, simula- lation models, playing up – under banners like tions often require specifying values for many versatility – such models‘ capabilities for explor- parameters (which themselves may be of complex ing any given one of a vast set of possible para- types, e.g., ―network structure‖). Outside of a few meter combinations (probably true enough, but at set-piece contexts (e.g., some short-term predic- the same time often somewhat irrelevant for the tion problems), constraining reasons just outlined). those values is commonly limited. The upshot is One way of trying to avoid these analytical that the analyst is called on to make numerous pitfalls is by narrowing focus, away from ―com- choices that are little more than educated guess- prehensive‖ analysis of a process (which for work. In this kind of situation it is, of course, many reasons may be infeasible) and towards prudent to run a simulation for a wide range of iden-tifying & analyzing counterintuitive or oth- possible parameter combinations, with an eye to erwise interesting qualitative outcomes that a par- comparing outcomes & hope-fully achieving rela- ti-cular process may produce under defensible tively robust insights. But if there are, say, 25 dif- assumptions. Some examples of work of this ferent parameters in play (as is not unusual in si- type, each pivoting on a specific idea having in- mulating complex social dynamics), and three tellectual edge, are: values of each one are picked for exploratory (1) Thomas C. Schelling, ―Dynamic models purposes, the analyst needs to explore & compare of segregation,‖ Journal of Mathematical Sociol- results of running the simulation 325 or 243 x 243 ogy, 1971, 1, 143-86 (computations showing, in a x 243 x 243 x 243 times under different combina- context of stylized models, how a high level of tions of assumptions. That is a number with quite residential segregation can emerge out of decen- a few zeros. Then too, one must also recognize tralized interactions in a spatially structured that this analysis is still fairly coarse-grained population whose members fall into two catego- (e.g., a more plausible account of the underlying ries A & B; dynamics stem from the idea that, as process might call for, say, 100 parameters and 5 Schelling puts it [p. 148], A & B individuals values of each). Directly exploring all resulting ―may not mind each other‘s presence, may even

19 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 prefer integration, but may nevertheless wish to avoid minority status‖ in their neighborhood). (2) Michael D. Cohen, James G. March, & Johan P. Olsen, ―A garbage can model of organi- zational choice,‖ Administrative Science Quarter- ly, 1972, 17, 1-25 (enormously original & intel- lectually provocative pioneering simulation mod- el of dynamics of a ―garbage can‖ organization [an offshoot of the notion of an ―organized anarchy‖ where organizational goals are unclear; organizational technology ambiguous; & mem- bers‘ participation fluid]; although the specifics have been challenged by some later analysts, the spirit of the analysis retains vitality and this paper is a must-read for any scholar interested in dy- namics of historical bureaucratic in the sense of S.N. Eisenstadt‘s 1963 book). (3) Scott A. Boorman and Paul R. Levitt, 1980 book, Chapters 3-5 (mathematical plus si- mulation analysis of how subdivision of a popula- tion into incompletely isolated ―islands‖ may permit possibilities for successful innovation that would be foreclosed in a system closer to ―per- fect‖ connectivity. (This idea may have potential to spin off a mathematical ―movie,‖ with an in- novation‘s win/lose/draw fate unfolding in simu- lation – perhaps as a human audience roots for its success!) (This is the model that underlies the Chinese Revolution application proposed above.) These models can all be captured in software.

A different sort of simulation is when human be- ings take part in what may be an all-human or part-human, part-machine simulation. An over- view of the resulting ―gaming‖ area – valuable for its broad comparative perspective – is Martin Shubik, ―On the scope of gaming,‖ Management Science, 1972, 18, pp. P20-P36.

20 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

Theda Skocpol Dissertation Award, Inaugural Winner

Dan Lainer-Vos, 2009. ―Nationalism in Action: The Construction of Irish and Zionist Transatlantic National Networks.‖ Ph.D. dissertation, Sociology, Columbia University. (Dissertation Chair: Gil Eyal.)

Statement from Award Committee: ―Nationalism in Action‖ uses insights gained from Bruno Latour‘s actor-network theory as well as from Leigh Star‘s concept of ―boundary objects‖ to move the study of nationalism in new directions. Lainer-Vos‘ work takes its place in a new generation of nationalism studies that shift the focus of analysis from the territorially bounded and geographically specific nation state to the diaspora communi- ties of displaced nationals.

Lainer-Vos views nation building as a practical organizational accomplishment. Using primary archival materials, he creates two case studies—the first focuses on Jewish Americans, and the second on Irish Americans. He treats encounters between these two dispersed national groups and their respective homeland movements as a site of strategic research. Lainer-Vos argues that national identity and sentiment may be created beyond, as well as within, the borders of the nation state depending upon the technologies of connection that develop. His core theoretical insight is that these technologies are always ambivalent because the ties they develop do not ignore or repress the differences be- tween the homeland and the diaspora. On the contrary, these technologies exploit differ- ence in order to create lasting associations—based upon ―cooperation without consen- sus.‖

The dissertation has a twofold comparison. First, it examines financial technologies that attempted to tie the diaspora to the homeland. It focuses upon attempts to float national bonds in the Irish and Jewish communities in the US between 1920 and 1951 respective- ly. Whereas the Irish bond drive tore the community apart; the Israeli bond drive was the core of the long lasting Jewish American commitment to the state of Israel. Second, Lainer-Vos examines cultural technologies—specifically Jewish American summer camps in Israel and Irish American Gaelic Athletic Association—again with startling dif- ferent results.

―Nationalism in Action‖ is a tour de force of archival research and theoretical acumen. It is historical and comparative in every dimension. It will surely make a wonderful first book and it is eminently worthy of being the recipient of the first Theda Skocpol Disser- tation Prize.

(Note: Please see the call for nominations for next year’s Skocpol Award below)

21 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

Section Awards Winners 2010

Barrington Moore Book Award Winner Andrew G. Walder, 2009. Fractured Rebellion: The Beijing Red Guard Movement. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Honorable Mentions Marion Fourcade, 2009. Economists and Societies: Disipline and Profession in the United States, Britain, and France, 1890s to 1990s. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Chad Alan Goldberg, 2008. Citizens and Paupers: Relief, Rights, and Race, from the Freedmen‘s Bureau to Workfare. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Best Article Award Dan Slater, 2009. ―Revolutions, Crackdowns, and Quiescence: Communal Elites and Democratic Mobilization in Southeast Asia.‖ American Journal of Sociology 115 (1): 203-254

Reinhard Bendix Student Paper Award Winner Anoulak Kittikhoun (CUNY Graduate Center, Political Science), 2009. ―Small State, Big Revolution: and the Revolution in Laos.‖ Theory and Society 38 (1).

Honorable Mention Bart Bonikowski, ―Shared Representations of the Nation-State in Thirty Countries: An Inductive Approach to Cross-National Attitudinal Research.‖

22 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

Call for Submissions, Section Awards 2011

BARRINGTON MOORE BOOK AWARD Lynette Spillman The section presents the Barrington Moore Department of Sociology Award every year to the best book in the area of 810 Flanner Hall comparative and historical sociology. Nominated University of Notre Dame publications should have been published during Notre Dame, IN 46556 the two years prior to the year of the award (i.e., [email protected] for the 2011 award only books published in 2009 or 2010 will be considered). Books may be nomi- BEST ARTICLE AWARD nated only once for this prize. Thus, books no- The section awards this prize every year to the minated last year cannot be considered again for best article in the area of comparative and histori- the 2011 award. cal sociology. Nominated publications should Books may be nominated by authors or by have appeared during two years prior to the year other section members. Non-authors may nomi- of the award (i.e. for the 2011 award only articles nate a book by sending a letter or email to the published in 2009 or 2010 will be considered). prize committee members. Non-authors should Authors or other members of the section ask authors to arrange to have the book sent to may nominate an article by sending a letter or each member of the committee. Authors may email to each member of this prize committee nominate their book by sending a letter or email along with a paper copy of the article. The letter to the prize committee members and making ar- and copy of the article must be received by each rangements for each member to receive a copy. member of the committee by February 15, 2011 Nominations must be received by February 15, to be considered. 2011 to be considered. The committee members and their email and The committee members and their email and mailing addresses are: mailing addresses are: Nitsan Chorev (Chair) Andreas Wimmer (chair) Department of Sociology Department of Sociology Brown University 264 Haines Hall Box 1916 375 Portola Plaza Maxcy Hall Los Angeles, CA 90095-1551 112 George Street University of California, Los Angeles Providence, RI 02912 [email protected] [email protected]

Chad Alan Goldberg Dan Slater Department of Sociology Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin-Madison University of Chicago 8116B William H. Sewell Social Science Build- 5828 S. University Ave., Pick 401 ing Chicago, IL 60637 1180 Observatory Drive [email protected] Madison, WI 53706 [email protected] Jonathan Wyrtzen Department of Sociology Meyer Kestnbaum Yale University Department of Sociology P.O. Box 208265 2112 Art-Sociology Building New Haven CT 06520-8265 College Park, MD 20742 [email protected] University of Maryland [email protected]

23 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

THEDA SKOCPOL DISSERTATION STUDENT PAPER AWARD AWARD

The section presents the Theda Skocpol Award The section presents the Reinhard Bendix every year to the best doctoral dissertation in the Award every year to the best graduate student pa- area of comparative and historical sociology. Eli- per in the area of comparative and historical soci- gible dissertations must have been defended and ology. Submissions are solicited for papers writ- filed between January 1, 2009 and December 31, ten by students enrolled in graduate programs at 2010. the time the paper was written. Both published Dissertations may be nominated by disserta- and unpublished papers will be considered. tion chairs, advisors or current department chairs. Students may self-nominate their finest work We ask that each nomination letter include a brief or it may be nominated by their mentors. Authors discussion of the specific strengths and contribu- and mentors may nominate a paper by sending a tions of the dissertation. Self-nominations are not letter or email to each member of this prize com- allowed for this award. Dissertations may be no- mittee along with a paper copy of the article. The minated by sending a letter or email to each letter and copy of the article must be received by member of this prize committee. Authors are then each member of the committee by February 15, responsible for providing each member of the 2011 to be considered. committee with a printed copy of the dissertation. The members of the committee are: Both the nominating letter and the dissertation must be received by each member of the commit- Greta Krippner (Chair) tee by February 15, 2011 to be considered. Department of Sociology The committee members and their email University of Michigan and mailing addresses are: 4146 LSA Building 500 S. State St. Mara Loveman (Chair) Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1382 Department of Sociology [email protected] University of Wisconsin-Madison 8128 William H. Sewell Social Sciences Building Nina Bandelj 1180 Observatory Drive Department of Sociology Madison, WI 53706-1393 University of California, Irvine [email protected] 4263 Social Science Plaza B Mail Code: 5100 Bart Bonikowski Irvine, CA 92697 Department of Sociology [email protected] Princeton University 119 Wallace Hall Matthias vom Hau Princeton, NJ 08544 Matthias vom Hau [email protected] Institut d'Estudis Internacionals (IBEI) C/ Elisabets, 10 Isaac Martin 08001 Barcelona (Spain) Department of Political Science [email protected] MIT 77 Massachusetts Ave., Building E-53 Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 [email protected]

24 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

Call for Submissions, Section Sessions, ASA 2011 in Chicago

Session Type: Open Submission are the dynamics, forms, and contours of empires Session Title: Islam and the Modern World across time and space, and how do they differ Session Description: Papers on any and all from or articulate with civilizations? What exact- comparative-historical aspects of Islam the reli- ly are their differences or similarities, connections gion, the civilization, and the religio/political en- and tensions? How do they fare as social and po- gagement with modernity will be seriously consi- litical forms? Theoretical and theoretically- dered. Also, papers on the emergence, expansion, grounded empirical papers are welcome. and geopolitical engagement of Islam, Islamic Session Organizer: Julian Go, Boston Universi- Empires, and groups/parties (Is- ty, [email protected] lamist, jihadist, and other) since the 7th century CE will be considered. Finally, papers on com- Session Type: Open Submission Roundtables parative theory of, say, vs. Marx on Session Title: Comparative and Historical Soci- history's inner dynamics, or the post-Weberian ology Roundtables ascetic theory of Sayyid Qutb, or any other com- Session Description: None parative-theoretical studies, will be seriously con- Session Organizer: Bart Bonikowski, Princeton sidered. University, [email protected] Session Organizer: Albert Bergesen, University of Arizona, [email protected]

Session Type: Open Submission Session Title: Pluralism and Methods in Com- parative-Historical Research Session Description: Comparative-historical research is no longer confined to purely compara- tive methods. In many ways, the field has become a testing ground for innovative approaches to so- cial research. This panel seeks to showcase the different methods used in comparative historical research and explore their relationship to the substantive and theoretical problems of the field – for example, do different and innovative methods produce new information about old problems in the field or open up entirely new research trajec- tories. Session Organizer: Emily Erikson; Yale Uni- versity; [email protected]

Session Type: Open Submission Session Title: Empires and Civilizations Session Description: Comparative-historical studies have recently turned their attention to em- pires but at least since Weber and Shils among others they have long been interested in ―civiliza- tions.‖ Empires and civilizations can each be thought of different forms of human association. This panel showcases comparative-historical re- search that illuminates them comparatively. What

25 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

Letter to CHS on the Real Utopias Theme of ASA 2012 From Erik Olin Wright

The theme for the 2012 Annual meeting of the There are a number of interesting ways in ASA is ―Real Utopias: Emancipatory projects, which the theme of ―real utopias‖ is of relevance institutional designs, possible futures.‖ Here is to the Comparative and Historical Sociology sec- how I described the core idea of this theme in the tion of the ASA. Perhaps the most obvious is the ASA newsletter, Footnotes: role of utopian ideas in various historical ―Real Utopias‖ seems like an oxymoron: Uto- processes and movements, but I also think it pia means ―nowhere‖ – a fantasy world of per- would be interesting to have discussions on the fect harmony and social justice. To describe a various historical experiments in intentional proposal for social transformation as ―utopian‖ communities, both in the United States and Else- is to dismiss it as an impractical dream outside where. The analysis of the 20th century efforts on the limits of possibility. Realists reject such revolutionary transformations from above could fantasies as a distraction from the serious also be framed in a way relevant to the real uto- business of making practical improvements in pias theme. And I am sure there are many other existing institutions. The idea of real utopias topics that members of the Comparative and His- embraces this tension between dreams and practice: ―utopia‖ implies developing clear- torical sociology section could think of. My hope headed visions of alternatives to existing insti- is that there are people in the section who will tutions that embody our deepest aspirations for find this theme relevant to their interests and will a world in which all people have access to the creatively elaborate proposals for panels at the conditions to live flourishing lives; ―real‖ 2012 meeting. Information about submitting pro- means taking seriously the problem of the via- posals for the meeting can be found at: bility of the institutions that could move us in http://www.asanet.org/footnotes/septoct10/2012_ the direction of that world. The goal is to ela- 0910.html. borate utopian ideals that are grounded in the To facilitate such proposals I thought it real potentials of humanity, utopian destina- might be helpful if I shared some of my general tions that have accessible way stations, uto- ideas on the structure of the thematic and plenary pian designs of viable institutions that can in- form our practical tasks of navigating a world panels for the 2012 meetings. This is all quite ten- of imperfect conditions for social change. tative – the first real meeting of the program Exploring real utopias implies developing committee where these and other ideas will be a sociology of the possible, not just of the ac- discussed will be in early December – but it may tual. This is a tricky research problem, for give people some idea of the kinds of things I while we can directly observe variation in hope to see happen. What follows, then, is a brief what exists in the world, discussions of possi- sketch of the different kinds of panels around the bilities and limits of possibility always involve theme of Real Utopias I would like see at the more speculative and contentious claims about meeting. what could be, not just what is. The task of a sociology of real utopias, then, is to develop I. Real Utopia Proposals Sessions strategies that enable us to make empirically Each of these sessions will revolve around a pro- and theoretically sound arguments about emancipatory possibilities. posal for a real utopian design to resolve some I am hoping that many of the sections of the domain of problems. Examples would include: American Sociological Association will be enthu- unconditional basic income, market socialism, siastic about engaging this theme in some of the equality-sustaining parental leaves, participatory sessions which they directly organize, but I also budgets, random-selection democratic assem- hope that members of different ASA sections will blies, worker cooperatives, stakeholder corpora- submit proposals to the program committee for tions, solidarity finance, democratic media, etc. thematic panels which explore the problem of The ideal here is to recruit an anchor person for real utopias within their subfield. the session who we know has already worked ex- tensively on formulating such real utopia designs

26 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010 rather than simply a person who has thought criti- somewhat longer than usual interventions cally about the theme (although there will certain- could be constructive. ly be flexible on this). This format will not be ap- propriate for all of the themes around real uto- Partial list of potential Topics for Proposal Ses- pias; it will be especially effective for those prob- sions lems around which there exists on on-going dis- Below is an initial list of possible thematic panels cussion of alternative institutions. built around real utopia proposals. I have identi- My idea is for the sessions to be organized as fol- fied these sessions by the central principle of the lows: proposal (for example, Unconditional Basic In-  We will create a dedicated website for come) rather than by the general topic or target of these sessions. a proposal (eg. Healthcare), except where I do not have a specific real utopian proposal in mind. Be-  The person who anchors these sessions cause of my own expertise, most of the topics I will prepare an elaborated proposal for in- have thought of revolve around political and eco- stitutional designs around some theme nomic issues. Nevertheless, it would be good if which will be posted online by early 2012. some of these thematic proposal sessions re- While of course these essays will include volved around cultural issues of various sorts and some discussion of what‘s wrong with ex- around egalitarian and social justice issues that isting structures and institutions, the goal are not exclusively socio-economic in character is for them to sketch the central contours (gender, race, sexuality, etc.). Some of these top- of alternatives. By this I do not mean a de- ics may be more suitable for general thematic ses- tailed ―institutional blueprint‖, but rather sions rather than for the proposal sessions. a careful elaboration of the core principles 1. Unconditional Basic Income of an institutional proposal. My expecta- tion is that these will be in the 10,000 2. A democratic media system word range, although some could be long- 3. ―High road‖ capitalism er. 4. Democratizing finance  In some sessions there could be two com- 5. Participatory budgeting peting or contrasting proposals. Having 6. A democratic, egalitarian system of cam- two different proposals could make for a paign finance very lively session for some topics. 7. Deliberative referenda  The website will allow for comments and 8. Gender: Parental leaves for gender equal- dialogue so that these proposals can be ity part of a discussion prior to the meeting. I 9. Parecon (participatory economics) am not sure yet precisely what the best de- 10. A framework for a digital network econ- sign for the website would be, but I am omy hopeful that it will be an interactive site 11. Building the Scientific Commons (publi- rather than simply a passive site. cations, data dissemination, etc.)  At the session there will be a very brief – 12. Community policing 15-20 minute – presentation of the pro- 13. Worker-owned Cooperatives posal and at most one commentary, or perhaps a contrasting proposal. I want to 14. Pensions, labor‘s capital, solidarity avoid panels with lots of presentations finance, wage earner funds and little time for debate and discussion. 15. Randomocracy, citizens assemblies  In Footnotes, section newsletters, and 16. LETS (local exchange trading systems) other modes of information dissemination 17. Globally just Fair trade we will encourage people to look at the 18. Market socialism proposals before the meeting and to come 19. Intellectual property – the creative com- to sessions with issues they want to raise. mons While of course we want to avoid long- 20. Public winded speeches from the floor, I think 27 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

21. Universities sessions, then, I would generally like three pre- 22. Heathcare senters and no discussant. Some possible topics for general thematic ses- sions II. Film/documentary sessions 1. Consumerism I think it would be interesting to have a number of sessions which present documentary films on 2. The corporation: alternative models for exemplary and iconic cases of social innovations more democratic/participatory governance to solve problems. The intention here is not to 3. Carework have cheerleading films, but documentaries that 4. Future studies as a framework for envi- analyze specific kinds of leading cases. The films sioning real utopias could either be presented by the filmmaker or by 5. The Cleveland cooperatives initiatives an expert who researches the case and could lead 6. Mondragon, Emilia-Romagna and other a discussion following the film. Most documenta- exemplary worker cooperative districts ries which are thematically relevant on these is- 7. Utopian thinking within sociological sues tend to be mainly about social movements theory and struggles – sometimes of the ―heroic strug- 8. Utopian and dystopian visions gle‖ variety – and not so much about outcomes, institutional innovations, actual transformations 9. Marxism and real utopias or Marxism vs of social structures. So, I am not sure exactly real utopias what is available. 10. Energy Examples could include things like: 11. Global Warming  The kibbutz – there are a number of films 12. The family that are retrospectives on the kibbutz ex- 13. Sexuality perience 14. Childhood/children  Holding Ground – a film about the Dud- 15. Cities ley Street neighborhood association 16. Multiculturalism  Public transportation – I understand that there is an interesting film about innova- 17. Linguistic justice tive public transportation in a Brazilian 18. Race, racial justice city, but I have not seen it 19. International migration  Local food, alternative agriculture 20. Methodological issues: nonevents and possible futures III. Thematic panels around broad topics and 21. : crime & punishment disciplinary subfields 22. The military Some of the topics listed under Real Utopia Pro- 23. Intentional communities posals sessions could be shifted to these regular 24. 19th century utopian communities thematic sessions if we don‘t find a suitable anc- hor person with a well-worked out - 25. Transforming culture al/transformational proposal. And some of the 26. Local food topics listed below, of course, could also be 27. Alternative Agro-food Systems moved to the institutional proposal category. 28. The Internet In terms of format, I have a strong preference for 29. Wikipedia sessions which do not have so many presentations 30. Creative commons that there is little time for discussion, and gener- 31. Voluntary simplicity ally I prefer sessions without discussants – my experience is that it is usually more interesting to 32. The Chicago participatory budget experi- have discussion from the floor unless the discus- ment sant is really engaged in a debate with a specific 33. Transhumanism argument (as in the proposal sessions). For these 34. Science policy IV. Plenary Panels 28 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

The program contains up to three plenary sessions and how sustainability and low growth can be – one on Friday evening and the in the noon slot institutionalized and reproduced. on Saturday and Sunday. Tentatively, I am think- ing of the following possibilities: 3. Sociology as Real Utopia: I am less sure about 1. Big Ideas for Real Utopias: This could be one this, but it might be possible to have a session or two of the plenary panels, depending on other which reflected on the nature of the discipline and plenary suggestions. The idea would be to have a academic life, and asked what the real utopia vi- panel(s) featuring very prominent, articualte ad- sion for sociology might be. vocates of specific real utopian proposals. I envi- sion three presentations for this panel, each around some Big Idea. One idea is also for these panelists to lead a proposal-thematic session (cat- egory I above) on the day after they are on the plenary panel. This would make it possible for there to be intensive discussion of the high profile ideas presented in the plenaries. If we have only one plenary session of this cha- racter, the topics could include, for example, some of the following:  Basic Income  A democratic media system  Participatory Budgets and direct democra- cy  Gender Equality and the family  Cooperatives

If we have two panels of this sort, one could be built around democracy issues and one around equality issues: Democracy:  Making Elections truly democratic  Participatory budget and direct de- mocracy  Democratic media Equality  Basic income  Gender equality and family  Cooperatives

2. Energy, the environment, and global warming: This plenary would focus on institutional designs for countering global warming and other aspects of ecological crisis rather than just the nature of the problem itself. Mostly when I have seen pa- nels and discussions of these issues the discussion of institutional design is pretty thin. There is a sharp indictment of existing consumption and production patterns and a call for dramatic trans- formation in how we do things, but little discus- sion of the mechanisms for accomplishing this 29 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

Member Publications

Almeida, Paul D. ―Globalization and Collective 1850-2000." Journal of Interdisciplinary Action,‖ pp. 305-326 in Kevin Leicht and History 41:7-25, 2010. J. Craig Jenkins, eds. Handbook of Poli- Ermakoff, Ivan. ―Theory of Practice, Rational tics: State and Society in Global Perspec- Choice and Historical Change,‖ Theory tive. New York: Springer, 2010. and Society 39: 527-553. 2010. Almeida, Paul D. ―Social Movement Partyism: Feuillet-Liger, Brigitte, Kristina Orfali and The- Collective Action and Political Parties.‖ rese Callus, eds. Who is my Genetic Par- pp. 170-196 in N. Van Dyke and H. ent? Donor Anonymity and Assisted Re- McCammon, eds, Strategic Alliances: production: a Cross-Cultural Perspective. New Studies of Social Movement Bruxelles: Brylant, 2010. Coalitions. Minneapolis: University of Gellert, Paul K. ―Extractive Regimes: Toward a Minnesota Press, 2010. Better Understanding of Indonesian De- Almeida, Paul D. 2010. ―El Salvador: Elecciones velopment‖ 75(1): 28-57, y Movimientos Sociales.‖ Revista de 2010. Ciencia Política 30 (2): 319-334, 2010. Gellert, Paul K. ―Rival Transnational Networks, Bandelj, Nina and Elizabeth Sowers. 2010. Econ- Domestic Politics and Indonesian Tim- omy and State: A Sociological Perspec- ber,‖ Journal of Contemporary Asia, 40: tive. Cambridge, UK: Polity. 4, 539-567, 2010. Bandelj, Nina and Matthew C. Mahutga. ―How Gunnoe, Andrew and Paul K. Gellert. "Financia- Socio-Economic Changes Shape Income lization, Shareholder Value, and the Inequality in Central and Eastern Europe,‖ Transformation of Timberland Ownership Social Forces 88(5): 2133-2161. in the USA," Critical Sociology 37(2) 1- Berman, Elizabeth Popp and Nicholas Pagnucco. 24, 2011 "Economic Ideas and the Political Haglund, LaDawn, Limiting Resources: Market- Process: Debating Tax Cuts in the U.S. Led Reform and the Transformation of House of Representatives, 1962-1981." Public Goods. University Park, PA: Politics & Society 38: 347-372, 2010. Pennsylvania State University Press, Calvo, Esteban, Fabio M. Bertranou, and Evelina 2010. Bertranou. ―Are Old-age Pension System Hall, John R., Laura Grindstaff, and Ming-Cheng Reforms Moving Away from Individual Lo, eds., Handbook of Cultural Sociology. Retirement Accounts in Latin America?‖ London: Routledge, 2010. Journal of Social Policy 39(2):223-234, Hall, Thomas D. ―Ethnogenesis,‖ pp. 136-138 in 2010. Routledge Companion to Race & Ethnici- Ceron-Anaya, Hugo, ―An Approach to the Histo- ty, edited by Stephen M. Caliendo and ry of Golf: Business Practices, Technolo- Charlton D. McIlwain. London: Rout- gies of the Self, and Symbolic Capital.‖ ledge. 2011. Journal of Sports and Social Issues. 34 Hall, Thomas D. ―The Silk Road: A Review Es- (3), 2010. say on Empires of the Silk Road: A Histo- Chase-Dunn, Christopher, Thomas D. Hall, Ri- ry of Central Eurasia from the Bronze chard Niemeyer, Alexis Alvarez, Hiroko Age to the Present, by Christopher I. Inoue, Kirk Lawrence, and Anders Carl- Beckwith.‖ : the Journal of son. 2010. ―Middlemen and Marcher Theoretical and Mathematical History States in Central Asia and East/West Em- 1(1):103-115, 2010. pire Synchrony.‖ Social Evolution and Hall, Thomas D. and Nagel, Joane. ―Indigenous History 9:1:52-79, 2010. Peoples,‖ pp. 156-160 Routledge Compa- Cook-Martín, David and David FitzGerald. "Li- nion to Race & Ethnicity, edited by Ste- beralism and the Limits of Inclusion: Race phen M. Caliendo and Charlton D. McIl- and Immigration Law in the Americas, wain. London: Routledge, 2011.

30 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

Haller, William and Victor Roudometof, ―The Ragin, Charles C. and Lisa Amoroso. Cosmopolitan-Local Continuum in Cross- Constructing : The Unity National Perspective,‖ Journal of Sociol- and Diversity of Method. (Second edition) ogy 46(3): 277–297, 2010. Pine Forge Press, 2010. Hess, Andreas. ―‗Working the Waves‘: The Ramp, William. ―Durkheim and After: Religion, Plebeian Culture and Moral Economy of Culture, and Politics,‖ pp. 52-75 in Bryan Traditional Basque Fishing Brother- S. Turner, ed., The New Blackwell Com- hoods.‖ Journal of Interdisciplinary His- panion to the . Ox- tory XL (4): 551-578, 2010. ford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010. Janoski, Thomas. The Ironies of Citizenship. New Reed, Isaac Ariail. ―Epistemology Contextua- York: Cambridge University Press, 2010. lized: Social-scientific Knowledge in a Kaelber, Lutz. "Virtual Traumascapes: The Postpositivist Era,‖ . Commemoration of Nazi 'Children's Eu- 28 (1): 20-39, 2010. thanasia' Online and On Site," Digital Rhomberg, Chris. "A Signal Juncture: The De- Icons: Studies in Russian, Eurasian and troit Newspaper Strike and Post-Accord Central European New Media no. 4: 13- Labor Relations in the United States." 44, 2010. American Journal of Sociology 115 (6): Kumar, Krishan. "Nation-states as empires, em- 1853–94, 2010. pires as nation-states: two principles, one Riley, Dylan. The Civic Foundations of Fascism practice?" Theory and Society 39 (2): 119- in Europe: Italy, Spain, and Romania 143, 2010. 1870-1945. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Limoncelli, Stephanie. The Politics of Traffick- University Press, 2010. ing: The First International Movement to Roudometof, Victor and Vasilios N. Makrides, Combat the Sexual Exploitation of Wom- eds. Orthodox Christianity in 21st Cen- en. Stanford: Stanford University Press, tury Greece: The Role of Religion in Poli- 2010. tics, Ethnicity and Culture. Foreword by Lo, Ming-Cheng M. and Yun Fan. ―Hybrid Cul- Grace Davie. Aldershot: Ashgate, 2010. tural Codes in Non-Western Civil Society: Roy, William G.. Reds, Whites and Blues: So- Images of Women in Taiwan and Hong cial Movements, Folk Music and Race in Kong.‖ Sociological Theory 28 (2): 168- the United States. Princeton: Princeton 192, 2010. University Press. 2010 Meyer, John W., Patricia Bromley, and Francisco Schalet, Amy. ―Sex, Love, and Autonomy in the O. Ramirez, ―Human Rights in Social Teenage Sleepover,‖ Contexts 9 (3): 16- Science Textbooks: Cross-national Trends 21, 2010. and Analyses, 1975-2006‖ Sociology of Schalet, Amy. ―The Significance of Relationships Education 83: 111-134, 2010. in Dutch and American Girls‘ Expe- Mukerji, Chandra. "The Territorial State as a Fig- riences of Sexuality,‖ Gender and Society. ured World of Power: Strategics, Logis- 24 (3): 304-329, 2010. tics and Impersonal Rule,‖ Sociological Slater, Dan and Erica Simmons."Informative Re- Theory 28 (4): 402-424. gress: Critical Antecedents in Compara- Osinsky, Pavel. ―Modernization Interrupted? To- tive Politics" (with Erica Simmons). tal War, State Breakdown, and the Com- Comparative Political Studies 43(7): 886- munist Conquest of China.‖ The Sociolog- 917, 2010. ical Quarterly 51: 576–599. 2010. Slater, Dan. Ordering Power: Contentious Poli- Ragin, Charles C. and Garrett Schneider. ―Case- tics and Authoritarian Leviathans in oriented theory building and theory test- Southeast Asia. New York: Cambridge ing,‖ in Malcolm Williams and Paul Vogt, University Press, 2010. eds., The Sage Handbook of Innovation in Torpey, John and Maxine Burkett. ―The Debate Social Research Methods. London: Sage, over African American Reparations,‖ An- 2010. nual Review of Law and Social Science 6 (2010): 449–67. 31 Trajectories Vol. 22, No.1 Fall 2010

Torpey, John. ―A (Post-)Secular Age? Religion and the Two Exceptionalisms,‖ Social Re- search 77:1 (Spring 2010): 269-296. Tsai, Ming-Chang, Leslie Laczko, and Christian Bjørnskov. ―Social Diversity, Institutions, and Trust: A Cross-National Analysis,‖ Social Indicators Research, vol. 98, 2010, published online 26 June 2010. Weber, Max. The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. Translated and Introduced by Stephen Kalberg. New York: Oxford University Press, 2010.

Wilde, Melissa J., Kristin Geraty, Shelley Nelson and Emily Bowman. ―Religious Econo- my or Organizational Field? Predicting Bishops‘ Votes at the Second Vatican Council.‖ American Sociological Review 75(4): 586-606, 2010. Wimmer, Andreas and Yuval Feinstein. "The rise of the nation-state across the world, 1816- 2001," American Sociological Review 75(5):764-790, 2010. Yasumoto, Saori and Ralph LaRossa. "The Cul- ture of Fatherhood in Japanese Comic Strips: A Historical Analysis," Journal of

Comparative Family Studies 41: 611-627, 2010.

32 Trajectories Vol. 19, No.1 Fall 2007

.

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