REGIONAL SYNTHESIS NOTE SEASONAL FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOODS 6 Sahelian countries ASSESSMENT – HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY ANALYSIS NOV 2020

Number of population Needs Population National Number of children in deficit 7,224,376,065 analysed Population in need (under 5) 8,173,871 Including Survival 328,458 MT 92,439,730 290,829,081 1,459,924 deficit:1,185,101

National deficit map This map presents the results for the whole 8,173,871consumption year by indicating the area with level of deficit. The tool provides a seasonal analysis of deficits, showing when deficits are likely to occur. This is very important for decision making of intervention to support the population in need. It4,008,416 is therefore necessary4,100,200 to refer to the seasonality of the deficits.

Survival deficit Not (% of deficit) None None 1-20% 20-50% >50% Number of Numberanalyzed of Number of Deficit in livelihood population facing populationNone facing YesYpopulationes Ye sYfacing es Yes deficit protection deficit deficit average (November 2020* This) summary(November note highlights 2019) key HEAlast analysis 5 years results (OA Nov 2020) in 6 Sahelian countries: Mali, , Nigeria, Burkina-Faso, Chad and Mauritania

Evolution of the number of Impacts on Total Yearly population in need Income (In CFA)

8,173,871 900,000 800,000 815,107 700,000 699,369 600,000 598,462 500,000 400,000 472,507 460,875 4,008,416 4,100,200 300,000 356,635 304,347 308,340 200,000 100,000 0 Lac (Fouli) Soum Bermo Konduga Number of Number of Number of Tchad (Lac) Burkina (Zome 07) Niger (NE03) Nigeria population facing population facing population facing Agricole Agropastorale Pastorale Urban deficit deficit deficit average (November 2020) (November 2019) last 5 years Ref. Year income Current Year income

Outcome analysis Outcome analysis November 2020 November 2019 Key parameters impacted Number of zones 60 47 analyzed Livelihood zone Countries District Ref year Current year Variation Number of areas 17 4 with DS income income Number of areas Agricol Tchad (Lac) Lac ( Fouli) 815,107 356,635 -56% 900,000 with DPME 24 18 Agro-pastoral Burkina (Zome 07) Soum 598,462 304,347 -49% 800,000 815,107 700,000 Pastoral Niger (NE03) Bermo 699,369 472,507 -32% The increase of areas analyzed is 699,36due 9to the increase in 600,000 Urbaine Nigeria Konduga 460,875 308,340 -33% the number of countries598,462 and areas covered for the current 500,000 round. The survival and livelihood protection deficit are 400,000 472,507 460,875 mainly due to the deterioration of the economic situation 300,000 356,635 304,347 308,340 200,000 with the Covid 19 pandemic and the increase of the 100,000 analysis coverage focus on the most affected. 0 Lac (Fouli) Soum Bermo Konduga Tchad (Lac) Burkina (Zome 07) Niger (NE03) Nigeria Agricole Agropastorale Pastorale Urban

Ref. Year income Current Year income Mangalmé

Mangalmé 200% Livelihoods Protection 180% Threshold Survival Threshold 160%200% WildLivelihoods foods/other Protection Threshold 140%180% Payments in kind Survival Threshold BEG sud 120%160% SelfWild employment foods/other 140% LocalPayments labour in kind 100% BEG sud 120% MigrationSelf employment 80% LivestockLocal labour sales 100% 200% 60% CropMigration sales Livelihoods Protection 80% Threshold CropsLivestock sales 180% 40% Survival Threshold Crop sales 200% Livelihoods Protection % minimum food needs 60% Threshold Crops 180%160% Installments 20% 40% Survival Threshold % minimum food needs 140% Wild foods/other 0% 20% 160% Installments Payments in kind Ref. year Curr. year Thresholds 140%120% Wild foods/other 0% Small business Ref. year Curr. year Thresholds 120%100% Payments in kind Small businessSelf employment 100% 80% Self employmentLocal labour TD01 80%60% Local labour Livestock sales Southern Staple and 60% Livestock salesCrop sales TD09 40% Crop sales 40% minimum food needs % Crops

Cash Crops % minimum food needs 20% Crops 20% 0% TD02 0% Ref. year Curr. year Thresholds Southwest Rice Ref. year Curr. year Thresholds TD03 Fouly Fouly South-centralFouly Cereals Example: Agricultural zone Seasonal Expenditure (Food and cash) Total Income (Food and cash) TD04350%350% 180% Livelihoods Protectio Protection n Southeast Flood Retreat Threshold 160% 300%300% SurvivalSurvival Threshol Threshold d 140% and Gum Arabic Payments in in kind kind 250% Gathering / fishing 120% 250% Gathering / fishing TD05 Self employment TD07 Self employment 100% 200% Local labor Central200% Agropastoral Local labor 80% Livestock sales Livestock sales Fouly TD08 60% TD06 150% Crop sales TD06 Livelihood Zones 150% CropsCrop sales 40% Eastern 100%Rainfed Cereals Crops Country: CHAD % min. food energy needs 20% MR01 and 100%Market Gardening District: FOULY 0% Pastoral nomadic % minimum food needs 50% ONDJ FMAMJJAS TD07% minimum food needs 50% Livelihood Zone: LAC TD05 MR02 0% Transhumance Total deficit Total expenditureMining and pastoral Ref. year Curr. year Thresholds Household type: Very Poor Maghama 0% MR03 TD08 Ref. year Curr. year Thresholds Maghama MR01 140% TD04 Oasis and wadis Western Agropastoral Konduga MR04 MR02 TD0312140% MR04 and FishingMaghama

" Littoral fishing Maghama 10120% Konduga Example: Agro pastoral zone Seasonal Expenditure (Food and cash) TD09Total Income (Food and cash) Maghama MR05 MR03 250% 10800%% 140% Livelihoods Protection Northern160% Oasis Livelihoods Protection Pastorial and trading TD02 Threshold Threshold 6080% Cultivation with Survival Threshold 140%

120% s MR06 s 250% Survival Threshold

d d 160% 200% Food Aid Camels and Natron Livelihoods Protection Livelihoods Protection e e TD01 food energy needs 4060% e 100% Pastorial and transhumancee 120% ThresholdFood Aid Threshold

MR05 n Self employment n Survival Threshold 140% d d s s food energy needs 40% Wild foods other Survival Threshold % min.

o 20% o d 100% d 150% 80% MR07 200% Food Aid o o e e

f f Gifts/remittances e e

120% Food Aid

Agro-pastoral n Self employment n % min.

m 200%% m 80% Small business d d MR06 u 60% u Wild foods other

o o 100% m ONDJ FMAMJJAS m 150%

i i Local labour 100% MR08 o o 0% f f Gifts/remittances n n

60% i i food energy needs 40% Migration m m

m Total deficit Total expenditure Senegal River valley m 80% Small business ONDJ FMAMJJAS MR07 u 40% u % %

m Livestock sales m

Country: MAURITANIA i i Local labour 50% % min. 20% Total deficit Total expenditure 100% MR09 n n 60%

MR08 i i Crop sales Migration

m 20% m District: MAGHAMA Rainfied cultivation 0% Crops 40% % 50% % Livestock sales Livelihood Zone: MR07 Maghama 0% ONDJ FMAMJJAS 0% Milk MR09Ref. year Curr. year ThresholdsRef. year Curr. year Thresholds 20% Crop sales Household type: Very Poor Total deficit Total expenditure Crops 0% 0% Milk Ref. year Curr. year ThresholdsRef. year Curr. year Thresholds DBP DBP NE02 DBP DBP 300% NE01 Example: Pastoral zone Livelihoods Protection Seasonal200% Expenditure (Food andThreshold cash) Total Income (Food and cash)

s 250% 180% Survival Threshold d 200% 300% Livelihoods Protection e

DBP e 160% Transfers Threshold

n 180% NE06 d 200% 140% Food Aid s 250% Survival Threshold o

160% d o e

f 120% Wild foods other e Transfers

140% n

m 150% 200% Gifts/remittances

100% d u 120% 200% Food Aid o m NE03

i 180% Migration o

80% f Wild foods other n

i 100% food energy needs

100% 160% Livestock sales m m

60% 150% Gifts/remittances 80% u % " Bermo 140% Milk m i food energy needs NE0640% Migration % min. 60% n NE06 50% i 12200%% 100% Livestock sales m

40% % min. NE09 NE07 100%0% % Milk Country: NIGER 20% NE13 NE05 0% 80% JASONDJFMAMJ 50% Ref. year Curr. year Thresholds District: BERMO food energy needs 0%NE11 60% " JATotalNE12 deficitSOTotalND expenditureJFMAMJ Livelihood Zone:NE05 DPB NE10 NE07 40% 0% % min. Total deficit Total expenditure Ref. year Curr. year Thresholds Household type: VeryNE08 Poor 20% 0% JASONDJFMAMJ Total deficit Total expenditure Konduga Maghama Example: Urban zone Seasonal Expenditure (Food and cash) Total Income (Food and cash) Konduga 200% 250% 160% Konduga Livelihoods Protection Livelihoods Protection 20180% Threshold Threshold 160% Survival Threshold 140% s 180% s Survival Threshold d Mobbar d 200% Food Aid e 140% e e 160% e 120% Food Aid n n Self employment

120% d Konduga d Wild foods other

140% o Gusau 200% o 150% 100% o o f 100% f Gifts/remittances

120%

180% m 80% m 80% Small business u 100% u

food energy needs 160% m m i 60% i 100% Local labour n 80% n 60% i Konduga 140% i Migration food energy needs m m

40% % min. 12600%% 40% % % Livestock sales

Country: NIGERIA 4020% 50% % min. 100% Crop sales District: KONDUGA 200%% 20% 80% SONDJFMAMJ JA Crops Livelihood Zone: IDP food energy needs 600%% 0% 0% Milk SOTotal deficitNDTotalJF expenditureMAMJ JA Ref. year Curr. year ThresholdsRef. year Curr. year Thresholds Household type: Very Poor 40% % min. 20% Total deficit Total expenditure 0% DBP Summary SONDJF MAMJ JA Total deficit Total expenditure 300% Livelihoods Protection • Poor and very poor households will still experience acute food and September 2021. Before this period, opportunitiesThreshold exist to

s 250% Survival Threshold d

insecurity during the next lean season in 2021. support preparednesse with communities, provide safety e Transfers n

d 200% Food Aid

nets and deliver forecasto based actions. o

f Wild foods other • The conflict and insecurity remain the keys drivers of livelihoods

m 150% Gifts/remittances u

• The partners of them SC-led NGO consortium (with Oxfam and food insecurity in the Lake Chad area (Nigeria: Abadan, i Migration n i 100% Livestock sales m and ACF) for the “Prevention of Food Crises” must continue

Mangono, Anka; Chad: Mamandi, Kanom; Niger: Bosso, Nguiguimi, % Milk ) and the Liptako-Gourma area (Burkina-Faso: Soum, their efforts for the appropriation50% and sustainability of the HEA approach within0% national institutions and the use of the Oudallan; Niger: Ayero, , , , Abala; Ref. year Curr. year Thresholds Mali: Koro). results for response plans. • The residual effects of the COVID 19 pandemic on the • SC and its national and consortium partners will develop new livelihoods of populations severely affected food and income initiatives in 2021 to accelerate data provision and analysis for sources because of the restriction’s measures taken by limited access areas in the Sahel region and scale-up HEA governments to prevent the propagation of the pandemic. analysis in Coastal countries. • The Consortium NGOs and their national partners will • Economic factors (high prices, slowed economy) contributed to continue to monitor the situation of the evolution of people impact in Nigeria. livelihoods especially in critical areas and will regularly update • Food assistance specifically targeting poor and very poor the situation. households in identified areas will be required between March

For more information on HEA, please visit: hea-sahel.org, heacod.org or foodeconomy.com