July'18 Barometer
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KONDA JULY’18 BAROMETER Political and Social Survey Series Evaluation of the 24 June Election Results Political Preferences Current Politics: Post-Election Expectations Social Mood Morale Index Barometer of the Agenda In accordance with the confidentiality provisions of the KONDA Barometer subscription agreement, this report shall not be distributed or circulated other than corporate use. KONDA EVALUATION OF THE RESULTS OF 24 JUNE 2018 GENERAL PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2 / 109 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 5 Evaluation of the Results of 24 June‘18 Elections ......................................................... 5 2. ABOUT THE SURVEYS AND THE ANALYSES ................................................................ 14 The Note Sent to KONDA Subscribers .......................................................................... 14 About Election Surveys and Their Publication Before the Elections ........................... 16 About the Analyses ......................................................................................................... 17 3. NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ELECTION .................................................................. 18 Number of Voters ........................................................................................................... 18 Voter Turnout .................................................................................................................. 19 Invalid Votes ................................................................................................................... 22 Election results ............................................................................................................... 23 Progress of Vote Rates Through the Years ................................................................... 23 Comparison of the Voting Rates of 2015 and 2018 ................................................... 24 Comparison of the Elections Based on the Number of Voters .................................... 25 Presidential Election Results ......................................................................................... 28 4. TRANSITIONS IN VOTING PREFERENCES ................................................................... 30 5. ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION VOTES .......................................................... 38 Social Analysis ................................................................................................................ 38 5.1.1. Social layout of the 24 June results ...................................................................... 38 5.1.2. Party electorate profiles ......................................................................................... 39 Analysis According To Electorate Size Clusters ............................................................ 42 5.2.1. Political Parties in the electorate size clusters..................................................... 42 5.2.2. Vote gain and loss in electorate size clusters ...................................................... 44 Analysis Based On Election Result Pattern Clusters .................................................... 46 5.3.1. Political Parties According to Election Result Pattern Clusters ........................... 46 5.3.2. Vote gain and loss in election result pattern clusters ......................................... 49 Regional Analysis ............................................................................................................ 51 5.4.1 Regional Performance of the Parties .................................................................... 51 5.4.2 Regional vote gain and loss ................................................................................... 56 District-Based Analysis ................................................................................................... 60 5.5.1 District-based election maps ................................................................................. 60 5.5.2 District-based election data ................................................................................... 77 5.5.3 Vote changes in those districts to the municipalities of which trustees have been appointed ................................................................................................................................ 82 5.5.4 District-based clustering analysis.......................................................................... 87 6. POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION ...................................................................................... 88 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 88 KONDA EVALUATION OF THE RESULTS OF 24 JUNE 2018 GENERAL PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 3 / 109 Effective Number of Parties in the Parliamentary Elections ...................................... 88 Distribution of the Effective Number of Parties Across the Political Geography ...... 90 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 93 7. PROGRESS OF DIRECT PREFERENCES AND SELECTED FINDINGS ........................... 94 Progress of Direct Preferences Acoording to KONDA Findings ................................... 94 What Have the Election Process and Campaigns Changed? ...................................... 95 Electoral clusters .......................................................................................................... 101 Young people ................................................................................................................ 103 Kurds ............................................................................................................................. 104 8. GLOSSARY of TERMS ................................................................................................ 108 Questions and Response Options ............................................................................... 109 KONDA EVALUATION OF THE RESULTS OF 24 JUNE 2018 GENERAL PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 4 / 109 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The survey which forms the basis of the July’18 Barometer report has been conducted on July 7-8, 2018 by face-to-face interviews with 2728 people in their homes in 156 neighborhoods and villages of 98 districts including the central districts of 32 provinces. Further, the analysis of the results of the 24 June 2018 General Parliamentary and Presidential Elections have been made on the basis of the temporary results announced by the Anadolu News Agency. Evaluation of the Results of 24 June ‘18 General Parliamentary and Presidential Elections We have used the district-based temporary results in our analysis on the 24 June election results, and the invalid votes and non-voters have been included in the analysis for the aim of understanding the preferences and behaviour of all voters, whereas the comparison of the vote loss and gain has been made with reference to both the 7 June 2015 elections and 1 November 2015 elections. The electoral turnout reached 88.5 percent in the 24 June elections, the highest rate encountered since the 2002 elections. There were no significant differences in the electoral turnout or the invalid ballot rates of the Presidential Election and the Parliamentary Election. It is observed that the electoral turnout increased towards the western regions. Southeast, Central East and Northeast Anatolia as well as the Eastern Black Sea regions show electoral turnout lower than the national average. Still, the electoral turnout analysis based on districts shows that in certain districts at the Southeast region, there has been a singificant decrease in the electoral turnout compared to the 1 November elections. This election has once again confirmed the polarization and the entrapment within identity politics. It is observed that the final KONDA calculations dated 9-10 June declared to the public on June 21 correspond to the electoral outcome within the margin of error. Parliamentary Election KONDA Election Result Ak Parti 37.9 36.9 CHP 21.7 19.6 MHP 6.1 9.6 HDP 9.7 10.1 Iyi Parti 7.1 8.6 Other 0.9 1.8 Swing voters - Non-voters / 16.6 13.3 Non-voters - Invalid votes Total 100 100.0 KONDA EVALUATION OF THE RESULTS OF 24 JUNE 2018 GENERAL PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 5 / 109 Presidential Election KONDA Election Result Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 45.4 45.2 Muharrem İnce 24.5 26.5 Selahattin Demirtaş 9.0 7.2 Meral Akşener 7.9 6.4 Temel Karamollaoğlu 0.6 0.8 Doğu Perinçek 0.1 0.2 Swing voters - Non-voters / 12.4 13.8 Non-voters - Invalid votes Total 100.0 100.0 However, it is to be noted that the overlap of the KONDA measurements with the election results is beyond the mere success of KONDA in that it shows the extreme intensity and permanence of the political and social polarization Turkey has been going through. Although the vote rates seem to be changing, the social base the political parties rest upon does not really change. In view of the results: It is understood that taking into consideration the voting rates in the General and Local Elections held since 2002, the maximum level the Ak Parti has reached is just below 50 percent and the minimum level is around 42 percent. On the other hand, the CHP had carried the level of 20 percent which it had once been placed in, to 25 percent in the past 4 elections preceding the final