DAILY SUMMARY – 18 MARCH 2018

1. Heavy casualties sustained during significant tribal clashes in northern Province 2. Continued preparations for Nowruz 3. IS official arrested and truck containing large quantities of weapons and ammunition seized northwest of 4. Significant weapons cache discovered in Al Qaim 5. ISF lift partial lockdown imposed in Tarmiyah 6. Multiple demonstrations in city

Iraq-wide: On 17 March, Iraqi Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jabouri stated the GoI supported Turkey in its efforts to counter the PKK. “We are definitely against the existence of terror organizations, especially the PKK there [in northern ], which can harm Turkey and the region,” said Jabouri. Turkish counterpart Ismail Kahraman added that Turkey and Iraq would “defeat terrorism jointly through full cooperation,” and said he was pleased with “the joint move against the terror actions in Turkey.”

In related reporting, KDP MP Arafat Karam insisted that no agreement for joint targeting of the PKK should be made without the approval of the KRG. “ Region is part of Iraq, therefore it absolutely has the authority of either approving or rejecting such agreements,” he added. Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK), which serves as an umbrella group for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), vowed to defeat operations being planned against their forces in the Qandil Mountains.

As previously discussed, it remains difficult to determine the full scope of planned operations, which are reportedly intended to heighten at some point after the Iraqi elections in May. Although Iraqi officials offered tacit support for Turkish counter-terrorism operations, the GoI will remain warry against any perceived expansion in Turkish threats to its national sovereignty. At present, related anti- PKK operations mostly involve routine strike activity. However, limited cross-border incursions and other upticks in ground operations staged from bases within the KR-I remains a consideration for the near-term, particularly given a set of operations reported between 14-15 March in northern Erbil Province.

North: On the afternoon of 17 March, an individual armed with an Ak-47 shot and killed one individual and possibly wounded another due to a tribal dispute before fleeing the scene at the Hajyawa Marketplace, located in District of Sulaymaniyah. At around 1700 hours, related events escalated into a significant tribal clash in the nearby Klaw Suran Village, ceasing around 2200 hours after Kurdish security forces responded. Casualties were sustained by members of both tribes, with at least nine killed including one woman and one child, and nine other individuals wounded including three policemen. Seven individuals were arrested over the course of initial security responses, with police focusing on maintaining order and assisting in dispute resolution.

The dispute in question was said to have dated back three years prior, and was previously resolved by village elders. The murder in Hajyawa served as a spark for the deadliest clash in the Kurdistan Region involving local or tribal motivations in recent history, with most incidents seldom resulting in more than two fatalities. Security responses over the near-term are expected to be similarly significant, particularly considering the casualties sustained by police personnel. Additional clashes or smaller- scale episodes of violence related to these tensions remains possible, particularly during hours of darkness.

On 18 March, KRG Spokesman Safin Dzaiy announced government holidays would be observed in the KR-I between 20-24 March in celebration of Nowruz. Erbil Police Chief Major General Abd al-Khaliq

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Tal’at announced that security forces have been executing the Nowruz security plan since 11 March, with related efforts to remain in place after the holiday. Security measures will be heightened in central Erbil in order to counter criminal activity and other forms of incidents that may arise. A large number of tourists from central and southern Iraq will enter Erbil Province and surrounding areas. Related routine developments surrounding this holiday will continue to pose an impact on traffic patterns.

Central: On the evening of 17 March, ISF lifted the partial lock down imposed at Tarmiyah’s main entrance and Ibn Sina checkpoints. This announcement follows extensive security operations and related airstrikes targeting IS staging areas and positions across this active district. This positive announcement follows reporting cited early on 17 March, where three vacant homes purportedly belonging to ISF members were destroyed using IEDs, with zero casualties reported. IS affiliated Amaq news agency later claimed responsibility, citing that an IS security detachment detonated the houses owned by a captain in the Ministry of Interior, a major in the ISF and a member of the Federal Police in the Shatt area of Tarmiyah.

Activity of this nature is rare in Tarmiyah and responses from security officials remains to be seen. Similar reporting has been cited across the northern region and in . Such activity comprises of typical insurgency tactics, intent on destabilizing the local security situation and degrading the credibility of local security efforts. It also serves to highlight the persistence of IS related activity in Tarmiyah and the focus placed upon this area which hosts historic facilitation routes into central Baghdad. Operations should be aware that additional lock downs and subsequent security operations will likely occur in the immediate term, as efforts are made to disrupt such activity and placate local concern regarding the deteriorating security situation in Tarmiyah.

On the afternoon of 17 March, an unknown number of civilians began to set up tents in the Maamil area of Baghdad al-Jadida Sub-District, in preparation for sit-in scheduled to begin on 18 March to protest limited public services. Subsequently and on 18 March, hundreds of Maamil residents demonstrated and blocked the Diyala-Baghdad road, set tires on fire and called upon Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi to intervene to improve the quality of services in the area. Similar protests have been cited in Jisr Diyala, likely motivated by events in al-Hosseinia and the successful outcome achieved by ongoing sit ins and protests that blocked Highway 2.

South: On 18 March, Iranian authorities released Hussein al-Shirazi who was arrested outside his residence on 5 March. Hussein al-Shirazi is the son of the Shia religious leader Sadiq al-Shirazi, who recently posted a video denouncing Iranian government officials and comparing them to “Egyptian Pharaohs”, elaborating on the tyranny of the religious state in Iran and its oppressive methods against protesters, critics and dissidents. Following his arrest numerous demonstrations ensued outside the Iranian Consulates in Basra and , with the most recent protest reported in Karbala on 17 March.

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Belated reporting indicates that on the afternoon of 17 March, hundreds of al-Qibla residents from Basra city, demonstrated in front of al-Khalij fuel station and threatened to boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections, unless efforts were made to restore essential government services in al-Qibla area. The exact location of this demonstration is unclear, although the underlining issue continues to cite unrest across the southern region and Baghdad. Further demonstrations are likely as elections draw closer, with possible calls for additional funds to be allocated which reflects the province’s significant financial contribution to the national treasury.

Also, in Basra City and on 18 March, dozens of temporary contracted workers who maintain and operate the sewer system in the Hayy al-Hussein area of Basra City, demonstrated in front of Basra Governorate building, demanding the immediate distribution of their salaries which have been delayed for three months. Atmospherics and the underlining issue motivating this latest protest remained relatively in line with current trends. Additional demonstrations remain an enduring concern, as well as the disruption of services to the area of Hayy al-Hussein as an escalatory measure imposed by temporary employees.

International: Iraq, 15 years on: A toxic US legacy – MEE Fallout from the US assault continues to deform and kill Iraqis long after the conflict has seemingly ended

Rebels in Syria's eastern Ghouta discussing ceasefire with U.N.: statement – Reuters The main rebel group in the southern pocket of Syria’s opposition-held eastern Ghouta said on Sunday it was negotiating with a United Nations delegation about a ceasefire, aid and the evacuation of urgent medical cases.

Kurds promise guerrilla war as Turkey-backed forces take Afrin city centre – MEE The Kurdish administration of Syria's Afrin region indicated on Sunday that Kurdish-dominated forces fighting Turkey-backed groups in the area will shift from direct confrontation to guerrilla tactics. The pointer came after Ankara announced early on Saturday that Turkish-backed rebels had seized the centre of Afrin city, making rapid gains in their campaign against Kurdish forces.

Republican senator expects Trump to pull out of Iran deal: CBS – Reuters Republican U.S. Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he expects President Donald Trump to pull out of the Iran nuclear agreement in May. “The Iran deal will be another issue that’s coming up in May, and right now it doesn’t feel like it’s gonna be extended,” Corker told CBS’ “Face the Nation” in an interview broadcast Sunday.

Trump's firings signal hawkish turn on North Korea and Iran – Guardian The end, when it comes to a job in the Trump administration, can be messy and brutal. The secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, was fired while returning from a gruelling Africa tour not long after the death of his father.

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Iran Arrests Close Ally Of Ex-President Ahmadinejad – RFE/RL Iranian authorities say they have detained a close ally of former hard-line President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, a former vice president and chief of staff of Ahmadinejad, was arrested on March 17, the website of Tehran’s prosecutor said.

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