Res earc her Published by CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. CQ www.cqresearcher.com Changing Demographics Will the rising minority population benefit the economy?

he nation is undergoing one of the most important demographic transitions in its history. For the first time, minority babies outnumbered white newborns T last year, and Census estimates predict that by 2042 non-Hispanic whites will no longer be in the majority. Already, more than a third of are minorities, and non-whites accounted for 92 percent of population growth between 2000 and 2010, a trend driven by rising Hispanic immigration. Meanwhile, as millions of baby boomers retire, the nation is growing older. More than a fifth of Americans will be 65 or older by 2030, Happy Citizenship Day! A youngster rests after joining other local children who attended a naturalization ceremony in Los Angeles on Sept. 19, 2012. Some compared with one in eight today. Seismic changes also are 40 million Americans — about one in eight — are foreign-born. occurring on the religious front: Protestants are no longer in the majority, and millions have abandoned religion altogether. And, in I a striking trend of reverse migration, millions of blacks are moving N THIS REPORT S back to the South. THE ISSUES ...... 991 I BACKGROUND ...... 997 D CHRONOLOGY ...... 999 E CURRENT SITUATION ...... 1004 CQ Researcher • Nov. 16, 2012 • www.cqresearcher.com AT ISSUE ...... 1005 Volume 22, Number 41 • Pages 989-1012 OUTLOOK ...... 1006 RECIPIENT OF SOCIETY OF PROFESSIONAL JOURNALISTS AWARD FOR BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 1010 EXCELLENCE N AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION SILVER GAVEL AWARD THE NEXT STEP ...... 1011 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CQ Re search er

Nov. 16, 2012 THE ISSUES OUTLOOK Volume 22, Number 41

• Will changing demo - Political Changes MANAGING EDITOR: Thomas J. Billitteri 991 graphics affect American 1006 The 2012 election under - [email protected] values? scored the important role of ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITOR: Kathy Koch • Will the nation’s demo - demography. [email protected] graphic changes benefit SENIOR CONTRIBUTING EDITOR: the U.S. economy? Thomas J. Colin • Will changing demo - SIDEBARS AND GRAPHICS [email protected] ASSOCIATE EDITOR: Kenneth Jost graphics affect future U.S. More Americans Religiously elections? 992 Unaffiliated STAFF WRITER: Marcia Clemmitt A fifth say they are unat - BACKGROUND CONTRIBUTING WRITERS: Peter Katel , tached to a faith group. Barbara Mantel, Tom Price, Jennifer Weeks 997 Pioneering Blacks 993 Religion and the 2012 SENIOR PROJECT EDITOR: Olu B. Davis The first blacks in North Election ASSISTANT EDITOR: Darrell Dela Rosa America were traders who Evangelicals overwhelmingly helped settle the continent. supported Mitt Romney. FACT CHECKER: Michelle Harris

Early Immigrants Older Population on Rise 998 996 Seventy million Americans Political upheaval abroad will be at least 65 years old fueled 19th-century U.S. by 2030. immigration. Chronology An Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. Expanding Equality 999 Key events since 1670. VICE PRESIDENT AND EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, 998 Major demographic HIGHER EDUCATION GROUP: changes swept the nation 1000 Black Migration Makes a Michele Sordi in the 20th century. U-Turn DIRECTOR, ONLINE PUBLISHING: Millions of African-Americans Todd Baldwin New Newcomers are returning to the South. 1002 Strict immigration quotas Boomers More Conservative Copyright © 2012 CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Pub - gave way to expanding 1002 but Still Feisty lications, Inc. SAGE reserves all copyright and other diversity. Mistrust of government still rights herein, unless pre vi ous ly spec i fied in writing. spurs the ’60s generation. No part of this publication may be reproduced electronically or otherwise, without prior written CURRENT SITUATION At Issue permission. Un au tho rized re pro duc tion or trans mis- 1005 Is large-scale immigration sion of SAGE copy right ed material is a violation of Immigration Standstill good for the U.S. economy? federal law car ry ing civil fines of up to $100,000. 1004 Net immigration from Mexico has dropped to CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional zero. FOR FURTHER RESEARCH Quarterly Inc. CQ Researcher (ISSN 1056-2036) is printed on acid- Dayton Model 1009 For More Information free paper. Pub lished weekly, except: (March wk. 5) 1004 Some cities are trying to Organizations to contact. (May wk. 4) (July wk. 1) (Aug. wks. 3, 4) (Nov. wk. 4) and (Dec. wks. 3, 4). Published by SAGE Publica - attract immigrant workers Bibliography and entrepreneurs. 1010 tions, Inc., 2455 Teller Rd., Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Selected sources used. Annual full-service subscriptions start at $1,054. For pricing, call 1-800-834-9020. To purchase a CQ Re - Aging in Place The Next Step 1006 1011 searcher report in print or electronic format (PDF), Communities are preparing Additional articles . visit www.cqpress.com or call 866-427-7737. Single for a sharp rise in elderly reports start at $15. Bulk purchase discounts and Citing CQ Researcher residents. 1011 electronic-rights licensing are also available. Periodicals Sample bibliography formats. postage paid at Thousand Oaks, California, and at additional mailing offices . POST MAST ER: Send ad dress chang es to CQ Re search er , 2300 N St., N.W., Suite 800, Wash ing ton, DC 20037. Cover: Getty Images/Kevork Djansezian

990 CQ Researcher Changing Demographics BY BILL WANLUND

That diversity extends to THE ISSUES Capitol Hill. Next year’s 113th Congress will include 28 Lati - he nation is undergo - nos in the House of Repre - ing a profound popu - sentatives, the largest Latino class T lation makeover, a in U.S. history, and a third Lati - transformation so sweeping that no will join the U.S. Senate. 7 just about every aspect of Amer - The nation’s demographic ican life will be affected in evolution goes far beyond eth - coming years, from economic nicity, race and politics, how - growth and electoral politics ever. For example: to social-welfare policies and • By 2030, more than one religious affiliation. in five Americans will be age Growing ethnic and racial 65 or older, compared with diversity is the most striking about one in eight today. ( See sign of change. For the first chart, p. 996. ) time in U.S. history, minority • More than one-fourth of babies outnumbered white Americans have left the reli - newborns last year, a trend gious denomination of their driven by rising Hispanic im - childhood and either joined migration. 1 By 2042, non- a different faith or abandoned n o

Hispanic whites will cease to s organized religion altogether. l O be in the majority. Already, • For the first time, Protes - t t o

more than a third of Ameri - c tants are a minority in the S / cans are minorities, and non- s : Only 48 percent e g

whites accounted for 92 per - a of Americans identify them - m I cent of population growth selves as Protestants — down y t between 2000 and 2010. 2 t from 53 percent in 2007. 8 (See e

The pace of demograph - G chart, p. 992. ) Hundreds of older Americans rally in Chicago on ic change in the nation, Nov. 7, 2011, against cuts in programs that benefit the The nation’s shifting demo - whose population has elderly. Each day for the next 19 years, 10,000 baby graphic profile has huge im - grown to about 315 million, boomers will reach the traditional retirement age of 65. plications for many facets of has stunned even the ex - By 2030, more than one in five Americans will be 65 or American life, noted Laura B. perts. “It was always predicted older, compared with about one in eight today. The Shrestha and Elayne J. Heisler, number of older Americans is expected to more than that we would be diverse, double between now and 2050, to about 84 million. researchers for the Congres - but it’s happened faster than sional Research Service, which anyone predicted,” said advises Congress on policy Cheryl Russell, former editor in chief Hispanic vote, according to election issues. “There is ample reason to be - of American Demographics magazine day polling by the Pew Hispanic lieve that the United States will be able and now editorial director of New Center. 4 Asian-Americans, who sup - to cope with the current and project - Strategist Publications. “Diversity and ported Obama by about 47 percent - ed demographic changes if policy the rapid growth in diversity is one age points, made up 3 percent of makers accelerate efforts to address of the reasons we have a black pres - the 2012 electorate, up a full point and adapt to the changing population ident today. That’s one thing that from 2008. 5 “The nonwhite vote has profile as it relates to . . . work, retire - would never have been predicted.” 3 been growing — tick, tick, tick — ment and pensions, private wealth and Nowhere have the effects of diver - slowly, steadily,” said Paul Taylor, ex - income security — and the health and sity been more evident than in this ecutive vice president of the non - well-being of the aging population,” month’s presidential election. In his partisan Pew Research Center. “Every they wrote. 9 Nov. 6 victory over GOP contender four-year cycle the electorate gets a Indeed, the rise in the average age Mitt Romney, President Obama gar - little bit more diverse. And it’s going of the U.S. population is among the nered an estimated 71 percent of the to continue.” 6 benchmarks demographers and econ -

www.cqresearcher.com Nov. 16, 2012 991 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

tributions from all these other groups, More Americans Religiously Unaffiliated we would become too top-heavy with 13 The percentage of Americans who classify themselves as religiously old people.” Myers noted that countries with low unaffiliated has steadily increased since 2007, to nearly 20 percent, immigration rates, such as Japan, can and Protestants comprise less than half the population for the first end up with young, working-age pop - time in U.S. history. Experts say fewer and fewer young adults are ulations too small to support the larg - embracing the religious traditions of their elders and that more er group of aging citizens. Americans are choosing to remain unaffiliated with any faith group. Along with immigration, birth rates also are keeping America younger Religious Affiliation Among Americans, 2007-2012 than other industrialized countries. Be - tween 2000 and 2010, the Hispanic (percentage of Americans) population — now the nation’s largest 60 minority — grew 43 percent, to more e

50 r

o than 50 million, partly because the o M birth rate among Hispanics is 60 per -

40 n h o

J cent higher than among whites. The /

30 s e

g Asian-American population grew at a

20 m I

about the same rate, reaching 17 mil - y t t

10 e lion, while the black population rose G 0 15.4 percent, to 42 million. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 For some whites, predictions that mi - norities will grow to more than half of * includes Greek Orthodox, Mormons, Jews, Muslims, Protestant the U.S. population come as a jolt. They Buddhists, Hindus and others Catholic feel as though they had gone “from ** includes atheists, agnostics and those who believe nothing Other faiths* being a privileged group to all of a in particular Unaffiliated** sudden becoming whites, the new vic - Source: “ ‘Nones’ on the Rise: One-in-Five Adults Have No Religious Affiliation,” Pew tims,” said Charles Gallagher, a sociol - Research Center, October 2012, p. 13, www.pewforum.org/uploadedFiles/Topics/ ogist at La Salle University in Pennsyl - Religious_Affiliation/Unaffiliated/NonesOnTheRise-full.pdf vania who researches racial attitudes among whites. 14 In fact, a 2011 joint omists are watching most closely. The Yet, while an aging U.S. population survey by the Brookings Institution and number of Americans 65 or older is poses challenges for social-welfare pro - the Public Religion Research Institute, expected to more than double between grams targeted at the elderly, includ - both in Washington, found that nearly now and 2050 — from 40 million to ing Medicare and Social Security, ex - half of whites believe discrimination 84.5 million. On Jan. 1, 2011, the first perts say the nation retains an economic against them is now as big a problem of the 78 million Americans born b e- advantage over Europe, Japan and as discrimination against minorities. 15 tween 1946 and 1964 — the baby China, all of which are aging faster Meanwhile, “non-affiliated” is now boomers — reached the traditional re - than the United States. 11 The reason the fastest-growing category in the na - tirement age of 65. For the next 19 for the U.S. edge, they say, is immi - tion’s religious profile. Twenty percent years, 10,000 more will cross that gration. The Census Bureau estimates of Americans say they have no church threshold every day, according to the that 14 million immigrants came legal - affiliation — up from 15 percent five Pew Research Center . 10 ly or illegally to the U.S. between 2000 years ago, according to a study by the Experts note that as a nation’s cit - and 2010 — the largest decennial in - Pew Forum on Religion and Public izens age out of the workforce, its tax flux in history. Some 40 million Amer - Life released in October. “Young peo - base declines, reducing the amount of icans — about one in eight — are ple today are coming of age at a time money available for pensions and foreign-born. 12 when they are less religious than at publicly supported medical and resi - “If the U.S. depended on white births any time before in our polling,” says dential needs. What’s more, older peo - alone, we’d be dead,” said Dowell Greg Smith, a lead researcher on the ple generally spend less on consumer Myers, a professor of policy, planning study. ( See graphs, pp. 992, 993. ) goods, putting less money into the and demography at the University of In what Smith calls a “churn” tak - economy. Southern California. “Without the con - ing place in American religion, 28 per -

992 CQ Researcher cent of adults have left the faith in which they were raised to join an - Religion and the 2012 Election other religion — or to practice no re - White evangelicals and white Catholics largely backed GOP contender ligion at all. Roughly 44 percent have Mitt Romney in this year’s presidential election, as did most mem - either switched religious affiliation, re - bers of his Mormon faith. Black Protestants and Hispanic Catholics joined a church after being unaffiliat - largely supported President Obama’s re-election. Experts say the ethnic ed or dropped out of organized reli - gion altogether. 16 identity of minority voters, who traditionally support Democratic The Protestant decline marks an im - candidates, often trumps religious affiliation at the polls. Religiously portant transition point, says Randall unaffiliated voters overwhelmingly backed Obama. Balmer, chairman of the religion de - partment at Dartmouth College. But he Presidential Vote by Religious Affiliation and Race, 2012 adds, “The U.S. has always been a plu - (by percentage of voters) ralistic country in terms of religion, and this is simply another indication that Barack Mitt we are a religiously diverse people.” Religion Obama Romney The Catholic Church has lost the Total Percentage 50% 48% most followers of any major denom - Protestant/other Christian 42 57 ination in the United States: Four White Protestant/other Christian 30 69 Catholics leave the Church for every in - Born-again/evangelical 20 79 17 dividual who converts to the faith . Non-evangelical 44 54 Nevertheless, about 25 percent iden - Black Protestant/other Christian 95 5 tify themselves as Catholic, a propor - Catholic 50 48 tion that has remained steady for White Catholic 40 59 decades, Smith notes. “Immigration from Hispanic Catholic 75 21 Latin America is boosting the size of the Catholic population, and it’s most - Jewish 69 30 ly responsible for the Catholic share of Mormon 21 78 the population holding steady,” he says. Other faiths 74 23 As demographic changes bring Religiously unaffiliated 70 26 sweeping changes to American soci - ety, here are some of the questions Source: “How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis,” Pew Forum on Religion being debated: and Public Life, November 2012.

Will changing demographics af - race itself begins to matter less than pared to 41 percent of the general fect American values? culture, class and other factors,” he wrote. population. The late Harvard University politi - “Rather than a source of national de - Americans’ support for same-sex mar - cal scientist Samuel P. Huntington feared cline, the new Americans represent the riage has been gradually increasing, that America was losing its way. He critical force that can provide the new and in 2011, according to the Pew Re - was particularly concerned about the markets, the manpower, and, perhaps search Center, the public was evenly influx of Hispanic immigrants, specif - most important, the youthful energy to divided on whether gay and lesbian ically from Mexico. Huntington feared keep our country vital and growing. 19 couples should be allowed to marry. A that their sheer numbers and the rise Attitudes toward abortion and gay slim majority of Hispanics believes same- of multiculturalism in the United States marriage are often seen as a yard - sex marriage should be legal. 20 would be a challenge to America’s stick of religious values. Hispanics — Pew also found that Asian-Americans’ “core culture.” 18 many of whom are Catholic — are views on abortion and homosexuality But Joel Kotkin, distinguished pres - more conservative than the U.S. pop - largely mirror those of the nation at large. idential fellow in urban futures at Chap - ulation overall on abortion, accord - Like Hispanics, Asians are more likely to man University in Orange, Calif., took ing to a 2012 survey by the Pew His - call themselves liberal — 31 percent do a different view of immigrants. “Amer - panic Center. Slightly more than half so — and less likely than the overall ica’s ability to absorb newcomers rep - of Hispanics believe abortion should population to describe themselves as resents . . . a new paradigm, where be illegal in all or most cases, com - conservative . 21

www.cqresearcher.com Nov. 16, 2012 993 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

“Another measure of Americans’ ac - cializes in Latino studies, says, “Latinos get to know each other, the pool of ceptance of diversity is the increase in are comfortable with marrying a per - ‘candidates’ becomes larger. And as an interracial marriage, which demographers son of another heritage or background. individual gains familiarity with peo - typically interpret to mean that race re - Latinos are less comfortable, however, ple from different backgrounds, the lations are improving, says Cornell Uni - defining their own identity by existing degree of acceptance may rise.” versity sociology professor Daniel Lichter. racial categories. The ‘browning of Amer - It’s difficult to generalize about baby “It means the things that promote inti - ica’ by way of intermarriage portends boomers’ impact on values. Some formed macy between racial their political con - and ethnic groups — sciousness during the for example, residen - turbulent anti-Vietnam tial proximity or eco - War movement, while nomic equality or sim - many others were in - ilar levels of education fluenced by the conser - — have taken place,” vative “Reagan Rebel - Lichter says. lion” of the early 1980s. m

A 2012 study by the m In general, however, a K

Pew Research Center according to a 2011 s a showed that about 15 l Pew survey, boomers ap - o h

percent of all new mar - c pear to be nudging the i N

riages in the United / values needle leftward. s e

States in 2010 were be - g On issues such as abor - a m

tween spouses of dif - I tion and same-sex mar -

y t

ferent races or ethnic - t riage, they are somewhat e

ity, more than double G less conservative than / P

the 6.7 percent share F their parents’ generation 22 A in 1980. Worshippers at the First Church of Seventh-day Adventists in but less liberal than However, “This Washington, D.C., on March 31, 2012, pray for the families of slain their children. Still, Pew doesn’t mean that teenager Trayvon Martin and the neighborhood watch found, in recent years we’re in a post-racial volunteer who killed him. More than a fourth of Americans have “more boomers have left the religious denomination of their childhood and either society,” Lichter says. joined a different faith or abandoned organized religion. come to call themselves “We’ve made great conservatives [and] many strides, but we have an awfully long the blurring of conventional racial . . . express reservations about the chang - way to go before race doesn’t matter boundaries, though it may not mitigate ing face of America. . . . Boomers’ cur - in this culture.” 23 the social or structural inequalities that rent attitudes bear little imprint from Twenty-eight percent of Asians tend to sustain boundaries.” coming of age in an era of great so - married people of another race, the Pew found that 43 percent of Amer - cial change.” 25 (See sidebar, p. 1002. ) highest percentage of all ethnic icans feel that having more interracial American University communications groups. “The rate of intermarriage in marriages has been a change for the professor Leonard Steinhorn, author of the Asian-American, especially the better, and nearly two-thirds say it The Greater Generation: In Defense of the Japanese-American, community is def - “would be fine” with them if a mem - Baby Boom Legacy , believes embracing initely having a cultural impact,” says ber of their own family were to marry diversity may be the boomers’ chief last - Lane Hirabayashi, a professor of Asian- someone outside their own racial or ing contribution to America. “It used to American studies at the University of ethnic group. In 1986, only one-third be that the white men who ran our busi - California, Los Angeles. viewed intermarriage as acceptable. 24 nesses could exclude women and mi - However, Hirabayashi also notes that Pew Research Center researcher Kim norities with a wink and a nod,” he says. the rate of increase of Asian interra - Parker, who worked on the intermar - “That’s no longer acceptable. [Boomers] cial marriage has slowed. “Increasing riage study, says increased immigra - have made diversity a moral value. And immigration from Asia gives immigrants tion over the past 40 years has helped they have created a cultural norm that a larger pool of potential partners from spur the attitudinal change. “With greater says prejudice and discrimination are im - the same ethnic group,” he says. diversity, there’s more opportunity for moral; they have created new norms, John Nieto-Phillips, a history pro - people of different ethnic backgrounds and the children they have raised under fessor at Indiana University who spe - to interact,” Parker says. “As people those norms have internalized them.”

994 CQ Researcher Still, says Brookings Institution de - be preventing younger workers from Even so, America’s aging popula - mographer William Frey, “Demography finding employment. One of the rea - tion poses deep challenges for the marches on. It’s the younger popula - sons [that young people can’t find jobs health care system. For example, a tion that [will] be living, working and is] because older people are not leav - projected nursing shortage is expect - building communities with each other ing the workforce,” said Sung Won ed to grow worse as baby boomers in a very different kind of America. Sohn, an economist at California State grow older and care needs grow. 31 They are developing a different set of University-Channel Islands. 28 But oth - As policy makers debate the im - values, in terms of their acceptance of ers disagree with the view that older plications of America’s aging popula - diversity — from having more mixed workers are hurting the prospects of tion, they also are studying the impact race and racially diverse friends, dat - younger ones. There is “no evidence of immigration — particularly the in - ing partners, spouses — and are gen - that increasing the employment of older flux of undocumented workers — on erally more accepting of new social persons reduces the job opportunities the economy. trends including same-sex couples, al - or wage rates of younger persons,” said The Federation for American Im - ternative religions, etc. They will also Alicia Munnell, director of the Center migration Reform (FAIR), a group in be more globally conscious due to their for Retirement Research. In fact, she Washington that promotes reduced im - associations with more new Americans said, “greater employment of older per - migration, argues that by curbing ille - and their greater ability to “network” sons leads to better outcomes for the gal immigration, “there would be many across the country and globally through young in the form of reduced unem - more jobs available to native workers social media. . . . [A]s we into ployment, increased employment and — jobs that paid higher wages and the next decade or two we’re going to a higher wage.” 29 offered better working conditions.” 32 be much more about the people who “Younger workers come into the labor Pia Orrenius, an assistant vice pres - are under age 30 than the people who force with a different vintage of edu - ident and senior economist with the are over age 50.” cation, and they don’t have work ex - Federal Reserve Bank of , says il - perience. So, you don’t often find old legal immigration might have some ad - Will the nation’s demographic and young workers clamoring for the verse effects on employment among changes benefit the U.S. economy? same low-wage McDonald’s job,” said specific groups — native-born teenagers, As the U.S. population ages, econ - Jeffrey Zax, a professor at the Univer - for example. “It looks like if employ - omists see both trouble and opportu - sity of Colorado who specializes in ers have the choice of an undocumented, nity ahead. labor economics. Moreover, Zax said, somewhat higher-skilled 23- or 24-year- The number of Americans 65 or older “A senior worker with experience might old, they’ll take that person over a 16- is expected to more than double by 2050, allow a company to hire more junior to 19-year-old.” But, she adds, “the ef - to about 84 million, and today’s 65-year- employees because you have someone fects are modest.” old can expect to live another 20 years, who can manage them.” 30 Julie Hotchkiss, a research econo - up from 13 years in 1950 . 26 Inevitably, aging Americans will re - mist and policy adviser at the Feder - Increased longevity and a desire to quire medical care and specialized liv - al Reserve Bank of , researched remain active are spurring many older ing and transportation accommodations undocumented workers in . workers to remain in the labor force. — which will open up job opportu - “Our research shows that newly ar - But so too are economic pressures, nities for younger workers, says Sara riving undocumented workers appear stemming in part from the loss of tril - Rix, senior strategic policy adviser at to displace only earlier-arriving un - lions of dollars in retirement assets the AARP Public Policy Institute. documented workers,” she said. “This during the recent recession. “The proportion of older people liv - makes sense since undocumented Researchers Frank W. Heiland and ing in nursing homes is declining, but workers are going to be the closest Zhe Li of Boston College’s Center for we are going to see a substantial in - substitutes for each other.” 33 Retirement Research found that near - crease in the ‘very, very old’ — peo - Many economists say that immi - ly 23 percent of men over age 65 ple in their upper 90s and 100s — grant workers have a positive effect were working in 2010, compared to many of whom . . . will need assisted- on the economy. “There is no evi - 16.8 percent in 1994. The participa - living facilities.” As a result, Rix says, dence that immigrants crowd out U.S.- tion rate for women over 65 nearly construction workers will be needed born workers in either the short or doubled, from 7.4 percent in 1988 to to build and upgrade assisted-living long run,” wrote Giovanni Peri, an eco - 13.8 percent. 27 facilities, and doctors, nurses and nomics professor at the University of As more older workers remain on home health care workers will be need - California -Davis. “The economy ab - the job, some experts believe they may ed to care for the elderly. sorbs immigrants by expanding oppor -

www.cqresearcher.com Nov. 16, 2012 995 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

tion is still 30 years off, it will come Older Population on Rise by 2023 for the younger sector of the The number of Americans age 65 or older is projected to surpass population, primarily because of the rapid growth in the Hispanic popu - 70 million by 2030. Experts cite two key reasons for the rise: the lation, according to Census Bureau es - aging of the post-World War II baby boom generation and medical timates. Among children under age advances that have increased average life expectancy. 17, about 17 million, or 23 percent, were Latinos, a rise of 39 percent in (in millions) Americans Age 65 or Older, 1900-2030 a decade, according to the Pew His - 80 72.1* panic Center. 37 70 60 54.8* Brookings Institution demographer 50 40.3 Frey said minorities’ electoral influ - 40 31.2 35.0 ence is just becoming apparent. He 30 25.5 16.6 pointed to the relative youth of the 20 9.0 10 3.1 4.9 minority population: Currently, only 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 44 percent of Hispanics, 69 percent of African-Americans and 53 percent of * projected Asians are eligible to vote, compared Source: “A Profile of Older Americans: 2011,” Administration on Aging, U.S. with 78 percent of whites. “It’s because Department of Health and Human Services, 2011, p. 3, www.aoa.gov/aoaroot/ they are disproportionately below age aging_statistics/Profile/2011/docs/2011profile.pdf 18, and among Hispanics and Asians, are less likely to be citizens,” he says. tunities rather than by displacing U.S.- — the president’s “broad advantage Whites still comprise 71 percent of born workers. Data show that, on net, among female voters,” his negation of the electorate, Frey pointed out, and immigrants expand the U.S. economy’s the erroneous view “that black en - will outnumber minority voters “well productive capacity, stimulate investment thusiasm for Obama would taper off beyond” the 2012 election. Neverthe - and promote specialization that in the this year” and the fact that “Latinos less, he added, “the handwriting is on long run boosts productivity. ” 34 went for Obama by even bigger mar - the wall.” In coming elections, as today’s Moreover, Peri says in an interview, gins than they did in 2008.” 35 minority children reach the voting age in the short run the loss of immigrant While Obama may be particularly of 18, “minority votes will matter, and workers would cause an economic con - popular among female, black and Lati - both parties need to pay attention,” traction. And while the economy might no voters, many experts view the in - Frey observed. 38 recover, the loss of immigrant labor fluence of those demographic groups Alan Abramowitz, a political science could turn out to be “quite costly. in the 2012 election as a harbinger of professor at Emory University in Atlanta, “If we don’t have people picking how demographics might shape polit - predicts that the minority electorate, vegetables and fruit in California, for ical destiny in campaigns of the future. which stood at 13 percent in 1992, will example, we’ll end up importing Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the comprise more than a third of voters [those products]. Other jobs can’t be Center for American Progress, a liber - by the 2020 election. 39 outsourced — such as construction al think tank in Washington, says a Cornell University’s Lichter, who also workers or waiters. We have seen very growing minority population and a directs the Cornell Popula tion Center, few natives taking these jobs, espe - shrinking white working class — a tra - believes the divide between older and cially at the low end . . . a lot of busi - ditionally Republican-voting demo - younger voters is an issue to watch. He nesses will have to slim down or sub - graphic — point to growing minority says, “In the 2012 elections, we saw a stitute with imports or pay more wages.” influence in future elections, a force large, aging, mostly white population he said would favor liberal candidates. voting in one direction, and a mostly Will changing demographics af - However, he cautioned, “There is no minority population voting differently. fect future U.S. elections? guarantee that demographic trends The question is, how will an older, Obama’s victory in this year’s pres - will automatically lead to [electoral] aging, white population vote and what idential election was due, in the words dividends. . . . Parties always have to will it support? When older people vote, of The Hill , a Washington newspaper deliver.” 36 are they going to vote to support chil - that covers national politics, to “at least While the expected majority-minority dren of people who might not share three concrete, demographic reasons” tipping point for the general popula - the same culture?

996 CQ Researcher “In 15 or 20 years, such as white evangeli - today’s minorities are cals and weekly church - going to be America’s goers strongly backed taxpayers and lead - Republican Mitt Romney, ers,” Lichter points while traditionally De - out. “They’re going mocratic groups such as to be replacing the black Protestants, His - white baby boom panic Catholics, Jews generation. Will they and the religiously un - vote to support pen - affiliated backed Obama n sion and health care a by large margins. Obama’s v i l l

programs for older, u support among white S

American, white baby n Catholics fell 7 percent - i t s

boomers? And will u age points from 2008 but J / boomers support the s gained 3 points among e g kind of education, a Hispanic Catholics. Mean - m I employment and so - while, his support among y t t

cial programs that e white evangelicals fell by help make these G 6 percentage points. 42 Pedestrians pass an American flag mural in San Francisco’s groups good citizens?” Chinatown on June 19, 2012. In 2011, the number of Asian The apparent grow - Raw numbers immigrants who came to the United States outnumbered Hispanics for ing electoral support for aren’t the only mea - the first time: 438,000 came from East and South Asia and the same-sex marriage indi - sure of minority vot - Middle East, compared with 404,000 who arrived from cates to some analysts ers’ influence; an - Central or South America or the Caribbean. that the political power other is location. of white evangelicals Teixeira and Frey wrote that minorities In 2004 more Catholics voted for may be on the wane. Dartmouth’s are strongly influencing election out - George W. Bush, an evangelical Chris - Balmer, an evangelical himself, says comes in “swing states,” where races tian, than for Catholic John Kerry. William that while the religious right will con - are particularly hotly contested. Between Dinges, a CU professor of religion and tinue to be a force in U.S. politics, its 2008 and 2012, the minority share of culture, agrees there is no such thing influence may be less apparent in eligible voters rose 9 percent in Nevada, as a Catholic vote any more. “People coming elections. 4 percent in Florida and , are becoming more independent,” he “I think it’s going to be a bit less 3 percent in Colorado and Wisconsin, said at the CU forum. “They can sup - forceful, less dramatic than it was in 2 percent in Pennsylvania and Michi - port a candidate or party who supports the 1980s and ’90s and the first decade gan, and 1 percent in . At the ideas not consistent with teachings of of the 21st century,” Balmer says. same time, the share of white voters in the faith. And, the church hierarchy those states declined by between 1 and can’t force votes the way it once could.” 3 percent. 40 And of those states, all For example, the tide appears to but North Carolina voted for Obama be changing with regard to gay mar - BACKGROUND in 2012. As for the electorate’s chang - riage, which Catholic leaders and ing religious makeup, some scholars evangelical Protestants have strongly say that just because Hispanic immi - opposed. After voters rejected same- grants are predominantly Catholic does sex marriage in 32 state referendums Pioneering Blacks not mean they constitute a Catholic since the late 1990s, a measure to le - voting bloc. Indeed, said presidential galize it passed on Nov. 6 in three he first blacks who came to North scholar John Kenneth White, a profes - states (Maine, and Washing - T America hundreds of years ago sor of politics at Catholic University ton), and a constitutional amendment were not slaves — far from it. (CU) in Washington, the “Catholic v ote” to define marriage as between a man In 1613, João Rodrigues — son of has effectively vanished. “For Hispanics, and a woman failed in Minnesota. 41 a Portuguese sailor and an African ethnic identity trumps Catholic identity,” According to a Pew Forum on Re - woman — served as a translator on he said at a Sept. 27, 2012, forum at ligion & Public Life analysis of exit a Dutch trading ship that had sailed the university. polls, traditionally Republican groups to the North American island known

www.cqresearcher.com Nov. 16, 2012 997 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

as Manhatta. When the ship returned black legislators were elected during While early post-colonial America was to Europe, Rodrigues stayed behind to Reconstruction, including 22 who were largely a Protestant nation, large num - start a trading post selling hatchets and elected to Congress between 1870 and bers of Catholics were absorbed with knives provided by the ship’s captain. 1901. 43 Tens of thousands of African- the acquisition of the Purchase He also served as an interpreter and Americans living in the North moved from France in 1803, Florida from Spain facilitator for Dutch merchants who south to become teachers or farmers in 1819, and territory in what is now came to the island to trade with the or just to reunite with families. New Mexico and California in 1847 as Indians. That’s how a black man be - By 1876, however, the federal gov - a result of the Mexican-American War. came the first non-native American to ernment’s commitment to protect the The second half of the century saw live and do business in what was to rights of black citizens was wavering. the Catholic population triple, in large become City. States enacted harsh “Jim Crow” laws part the result of immigration from Eu - A little over 150 years later, Jean Bap - that institutionalized racial segregation rope — notably Ireland, Italy, and tiste Point Sable — son of a French fa - in schools and other public places, Poland. By 1906, there were 14 mil - ther and African mother and probably and black voting was blocked by lion Catholics in America, 17 percent born in the Caribbean in what is now fraud, intimidation or worse. In 1896, of the total population. 44 the Dominican Republic — established a nearly unanimous U.S. Supreme Court, Asian immigrants were rare in North himself in North America as a trader at in the infamous Plessy v. Ferguson de - America until 1849, when Chinese work - the mouth of a river in an area called cision, upheld the concept that state ers were recruited to work in the Cali - Eschecagou. Point Sable, a black man, laws could require separate facilities fornia gold fields, and later to help build is regarded as the first non-Indian to for blacks and whites, as long as the the transcontinental railway system and set up permanent residence in present- facilities were equivalent. But equiva - work in other, mostly menial, jobs. As day Chicago. lence was left undefined. The ruling the Chinese population grew, racial prej - And in 1781, 26 full or mixed-race in effect conferred constitutionality to udice and distrust increased among blacks were among the 44 Mexicans the South’s Jim Crow caste system. whites, and in 1882 Congress passed the who settled the little pueblo that Chinese Exclusion Act, which ended im - would become Los Angeles. migration by Chinese laborers. The law Far better known, of course, is the Early Immigrants also made Chinese immigrants already tragic history of the blacks who came in the country ineligible for citizenship. to North America under extreme duress. n the first years of the democracy, England began taking captured Africans I immigration to the United States to serve as slaves in its Carolina colony was relatively slight; even so, one of Expanding Equality in 1670. During the colonial period, the early legislative acts of the cau - an estimated 600,000 African slaves tious Founding Fathers was the Natu - he 20th century saw the United were brought to America. In 1808, ralization Act of 1790, which limited T States experience major demo - Congress banned the importation of naturalized citizenship to “free white graphic changes. The start of World slaves, but the law was not seamless - persons” of “good moral character.” War I (1914-1918) helped spark the ly enforced. It did effectively end the Immigration gathered momentum in mass South-to-North movement of transatlantic slave trade — though not the early 19th century. During the 1820s, African-Americans, and the end of the practice of slavery in the colonies. 143,000 immigrants were reported; in World War II (1939-1945) led to the birth By 1860, the slave population in the the following decade, immigration — of the baby boom generation — the United States was about 4 million. mostly by Irish and Germans — more largest population bulge in the nation’s With the end of the Civil War and than quadrupled. The 1840s recorded history. In addition, after the United States ratification in 1865 of the 13th amend - 1,713,000 immigrants, nearly half of loosened immigration restrictions, a flood ment abolishing slavery, blacks were them from Ireland escaping the 1845- of new citizens dramatically altered the granted citizenship. Black males gained 49 potato famine. Politics also helped country’s ethnic mixture. All these forces the right to vote with ratification of swell the immigrant tide, as unsuc - began to come together around the mid - the 15th Amendment in 1870. The post - cessful European revolutions in 1848 dle of the 20th century, ultimately war Reconstruction period saw im - spurred large numbers of intellectuals changing the way Americans perceived pro ved educational and economic op - and political activists to flee their home - each other and their own values. portunities for Southern blacks, and lands. By 1850 foreign-born residents Meanwhile, the black population, many even were elected to public of - made up 9.7 percent of America’s 23 mil - which had reached 8.8 million by 1900 fice. In the Carolinas alone, nearly 100 lion population. Continued on p. 1000

998 CQ Researcher Chronology

1882 1964 1600s-1700s Chinese Exclusion Act forbids im - President Lyndon B. Johnson signs Slavery is introduced to North migration by Chinese laborers. Civil Rights Act, outlawing segrega - America. tion in public places. 1896 1670-1783 Supreme Court upholds “separate 1965 England begins importing African but equal” doctrine for whites and Immigration and Nationality Act slaves to its Carolina colony. Some blacks in Plessy v. Ferguson. opens citizenship to Asians, His - 600,000 African slaves are brought to panics, Africans and others largely America during the colonial period. • excluded by the 1924 Immigration Act. The Supreme Court, in Loving 1790 v. Virginia , unanimously rules that Congress restricts naturalized citi - 1900s-1945 restrictions on interracial marriage zenship to “free white persons” of Congress seeks “homogeneity” are unconstitutional.” “good moral character.” by favoring immigrants from northern and western Europe 1970s • while severely restricting every - Rev. Jerry Falwell and other lead - one else. U.S. blacks migrate ers call on conservative Christians northward for jobs and rights. to become politically active; the 1800s Slavery is abol - Religious Right becomes political ished, and new rights are 1915 force. granted to African-Americans. Blacks begin “Great Migration” from the South to the North. • 1808 Congress bans the transatlantic 1924 slave trade but not slavery. Immigration Act of 1924 essentially 2000s America contem - limits citizenship to immigrants from plates “majority-minority” status. 1849 northern and western Europe. Baby boomers enter old age. Chinese laborers recruited for Cali - fornia gold fields. 1943 2001 Congress repeals Chinese Exclusion U.S. Hispanic population reaches 1863 Act (but 1924 Immigration Act is 37 million, making Latinos the President Abraham Lincoln issues still in force). largest ethnic minority. the Emancipation Proclamation, declaring slaves in the Confederate • 2008 states to be free. Census Bureau projects that by 2042 whites will no longer be 1865 1946-2000 Post- majority in the United States. Thirteenth Amendment to Consti - war baby boom creates huge tution is ratified Dec. 1, freeing population “bulge.” Immigrant 2011 all slaves. pool expands. Civil Rights Move - Minority births outnumber white ment makes major advances. newborns. . . . Net Mexican immi - 1866 gration to United States falls to Congress enacts legislation giving 1946 zero, mostly in response to Great blacks full citizenship. First of 78 million post-World War II Recession that began in 2007. First baby boomers are born. baby boomers reach retirement 1870 age of 65. Fifteenth Amendment gives black 1963 men the right to vote. March for Jobs and Freedom attracts 2012 up to 300,000 demonstrators to Religion survey indicates that for 1876 Washington in pivotal moment for the first time Protestants comprise First “Jim Crow” laws in South the . less than half of Americans. mandate segregated public facilities.

www.cqresearcher.com Nov. 16, 2012 999 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

Black Migration Makes a U-Turn Millions fled the South, but many are returning.

emographers and historians call it the “Great Migra - Yet, jobs were far from the only lure for Southern blacks. tion,” an extraordinary exodus of blacks from the South Isabel Wilkerson, author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning portrait D to the urban North throughout much of the 20th cen - of the Great Migration, The Warmth of Other Suns , frames the tury. Now that epic shift is reversing, bringing millions of African- migration as a flight from racial hatred and abuse. Americans back to a region that once shunned or tormented “This was . . . a defection from a system that had held them and their ancestors. [black] Americans in an artificial hierarchy that restricted their Between 1916 and 1975, an estimated 6 million African- every move . . .,” Wilkerson told CQ Researcher in an e-mail Americans left the South in search of greater economic op - interview. “They were, in effect, seeking political asylum from portunity and social freedom in cities such as Chicago, Detroit, a caste system that limited every aspect of their lives and [that] Cleveland and New York. But in the 1990s demographers began was enforced with such brutality that, in the two decades lead - to notice something remarkable: Millions of black Americans ing up to the Migration, an African-American was lynched in were leaving their homes and jobs in the North and returning a public spectacle every four days for some perceived breach to their roots in the South. of that caste system.” Census data released in 2011 show that 57 percent of The economic impact the South faced from the exodus of American blacks now live in the South, the highest per - blacks wasn’t apparent at first. Some Southerners gloated: “As centage since 1960. Michigan and Illinois, home to large con - the North grows blacker, the South grows whiter,” the New Or - centrations of African -Americans, both lost black population leans Times-Picayune wrote. 4 for the first time, according to the 2010 census, and Atlanta Then, as the implications of the loss of so much of the replaced Chicago as the city with the second-largest African- South’s agricultural workforce became clear, worry set in. American population, after New York. More than one million Southern authorities tried to stem the hemorrhaging of cheap blacks now living in the South were born in the Northeast, a farm labor by invoking “anti-enticement” laws to discourage 10-fold increase since 1970. 1 agents from northern companies from recruiting blacks. 5 But “This is the decade of ,” Brookings Institution it was too late: The Great Migration was on. And it kept demographer William Frey told The New York Times last year . 2 going long after the lure of Northern jobs ended following Frey credited the return of many blacks to the South to an World War I. improved racial and economic climate there, along with “the “Those in the World War I-era wave of the Great Migration strong cultural and economic ties that the South holds for didn’t see their move as permanent — they thought when the blacks.” Even so, he noted that “blacks, by and large, are not war was over, they’d go back home,” says Lorenzo Morris, a settling in the Deep South states that registered the greatest political science professor at Howard University in Washington. out-migration of blacks in the 1960s” and where discriminatory “But when the war ended, although it was difficult to stay [in “Jim Crow” laws restricted blacks’ freedom. 3 the North], to return was intolerable.” That out-migration began in earnest in the second decade During the post-war 1920s, the industrial economy kept of the 20th century, driven by the demand for workers in North - booming, and so did the migration: Nearly a million more ern munitions factories during World War 1. Between 1916 and blacks headed North during the decade, and nearly half a mil - 1919, half a million African-Americans came North. lion more left the South during the Depression era of the 1930s.

Continued from p. 998 accelerate in the early to mid-20th cen - be a factor in determining eligibility — 90 percent of whom lived in the tury. It had begun in the late 1800s for citizenship. South — began to change rapidly in with the building of the railroads across The vast majority, however, had no the early to mid-1900s. Jobs were the American Southwest. By 1900, half interest in citizenship. “Why bother to being created in the rapidly industri - a million Mexicans were living in the become an American citizen when the alizing North, while the South’s op - United States. Though they weren’t land one loved, the land of family, lan - pressive were spurring treated as well as Northern European guage and la raza (the people or race), a mass exodus known as the Great immigrants, Mexicans didn’t experience was so close by?,” wrote historian Migration. Over six decades, an esti - the same exclusion as Asians. All Mex - Lawrence H. Fuchs . 45 mated 6 million blacks left the South icans living in territories acquired from But eligibility for citizenship didn’t for new lives in the North and West. Mexico were granted citizenship. In stop discrimination, of course. “The (See sidebar, above. ) 1897, a U.S. district court ruled that Mexican-American has been the black Mexican migration also began to the skin color of Mexicans should not man of the Southwest,” wrote Ronnie

1000 CQ Researcher e r u t l u C

k c a l B The exodus continued — a more welcoming place for n i 1.6 million in the 1940s, 1.4 white Northerners and for im - h c million in the ’50s, another r migrants who might never have a e

million in the ’60s. When s considered living there under e R

the Great Migration began, the old regime, as well as for r o f

one in 10 American blacks the children and grandchildren r e

lived outside the South; by t of who had n the 1970s, nearly one in e fled in previous generations. C 6 g

two did. Within the mi - r “The return migration of u

gration statistics is evidence b many of the children and m

of an evolution in Ameri - o grandchildren of the Great Mi - h c

can society, culture and S gration is, in my view, one of politics. “Many leading fig - An estimated 6 million African-Americans left the South the legacies of the Great Mi - ures in American culture — between 1916 and 1975 in search of greater economic gration itself,” Wilkerson con - from [writers] Toni Morrison opportunity and social freedom, settling in such cities as tinued. “The people who left, and August Wilson to [per - Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and New York. Today, by their heartbreaking deci - formers] Miles Davis and many blacks are leaving the North and sion to leave, helped to returning to their Southern roots. Aretha Franklin to [sports change the region they had figures] Jesse Owens and Jackie Robinson — are people whose been forced to flee and make it a more welcoming place for names we likely would never have known had there been no everyone, including immigrants from other parts of the world, Great Migration,” Wilkerson said in the e-mail interview. “Each for white Northerners who might never have considered living one of them was a child of this Migration, whose life chances in the South and for the migrants’ own descendants.” were altered because their parents or grandparents chose to escape the restrictions of the South.” — Bill Wanlund The Great Migration came to a close in the 1970s after its over-arching catalyst — a caste system sanctioned by law — 1 Sabrina Tavernise and Robert Gebeloff, “Many U.S. Blacks Moving to South, ended with passage of landmark civil rights legislation during Reversing Trend,” The New York Times , March 24, 2011, www.nytimes.com/ 2011/03/25/us/25south.html?pagewanted=all. the previous decade. By the 1990s, the Great Migration had 2 Quoted in ibid. turned around. But its legacy lives on. 3 William Frey, “The New Great Migration: Black Americans’ Return to the “Perhaps one of the least recognized effects of the migra - South, 1965-2000”, The Brookings Institution, May 2004, www.brookings. tion was its role, unintended though it was, in helping bring edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2004/5/demographics%20frey/20040524_frey . 4 Isabel Wilkerson, The Warmth of Other Suns: The Epic Story of America’s the South into mainstream culture and ultimately helping it Great Migration (2010), p. 162. open up to the rest of the country,” Wilkerson said in the e- 5 Ibid. mail interview. “The upending of the caste system brought the 6 Ibid. , p. 8. South more in line with the rest of the country and made it

Lopez, executive assistant to former tion policy. Some 400,000 Mexicans renew it in 1964. The Mexican guest - Arizona Democratic Gov. Bruce Bab - — including many born in the Unit - workers — 4.8 million over the life bitt. “There have been rapings and ed States — were deported. Mexi - of the program — worked in at least lynchings. . . . People’s land was taken can immigration to the United States 38 states, mostly picking fruit and from them.” 46 picked up again — though slightly vegetables in the Southwest. 47 The immigrant waves of the first — in the 1940s, spurred by wartime By the 1960s, public sympathy for quarter of the century brought an - labor shortages. In 1942, the nation the Civil Rights Movement was spread - other 750,000 legal immigrants from initiated the “Bracero” guestworker ing across the country, giving Presi - Mexico. The flow ebbed during the program, under which large num - dent Lyndon B. Johnson (1963-1969) Great Depression, when many re - bers of temporary workers were the support he needed to push through cent Mexican arrivals voluntarily re - transported north. The program was the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which out - turned to their homeland, and the supposed to end with the war but lawed segregation in public places. A United States tightened its immigra - lasted until Congress refused to year later, Johnson signed the Voting

www.cqresearcher.com Nov. 16, 2012 1001 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

Boomers More Conservative but Still Feisty Mistrust of government still spurs ’60s generation.

orty years ago, the anti-establishment protests of the baby and political attitudes, says many boomers who pushed for boom generation helped end the Vietnam War. Today, sweeping societal change in the ’60s are feeling uncomfortable F many of those same boomers form the core of the con - with demographic and cultural shifts occurring in society today. servative Tea Party movement. “Many boomers express reservations about the changing face The Tea Party phenomenon reflects a general move to the of America,” the Pew Research Center said in a report outlin - right by many of the 78 million Americans born between 1946 ing the results of a survey on political views. “Boomers’ cur - and 1964, pollsters and demographers say. In 2008, 12 percent rent attitudes bear little imprint from coming of age in an era of boomers identified themselves as liberal, compared with 30 per - of great social change.” 2 cent in 1972, according to the American National Election Sur - Citing the Pew report, William Frey, a demographer at the vey. Meanwhile, the percentage calling themselves conservative Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, noted boomers’ more than doubled, from 21 percent to 46 percent. 1 attitudes on immigration. “[Twenty-three] percent of baby boomers Still, many experts say the ideological transformation of the regard the country’s growing population of immigrants as a boomer generation is not inconsistent with its formative ideals change for the better,” he wrote. “Forty-three percent saw it as in the 1960s. a change for the worse. Almost half of white boomers said the “Tea Partiers are mistrustful of authority,” says Leonard Stein - growing number of newcomers from other countries repre - horn, a communications professor at American University in sented a threat to traditional U.S. customs and values.” 3 Washington who has studied the boomers. “In many ways that The conservative shift belies boomers’ popular image — distrust of any sort of power or authority is not so dissimilar honed by the counterculture of the 1960s — as left-wing ide - to what so many boomers throughout the years have expressed alists whose motto was “don’t trust anyone over 30.” against either unchecked power or illegitimate authority, which Under that banner, boomers challenged the “establishment” many felt was exercised during the Vietnam War.” over issues such as the Vietnam War, racial and sexual equal - The Pew Research Center, which tracks Americans’ social ity and matters of faith. More than 60 percent left organized

Rights Act of 1965, significantly im - the landmark 1963 March on Wash - partment historian’s office wrote, “The proving blacks’ access to the polls. ington, later turned the lessons he had most basic purpose of the 1924 Im - The new laws were the crowning learned to promoting gay rights. “Today, migration Act was to preserve the ideal legislative achievements of the Civil blacks are no longer the litmus paper of American homogeneity.” 50 To do Rights Movement and reflected its suc - or the barometer of social change,” he so, the act tied the quotas to numbers cessful effort to mobilize public sup - said in 1986. “The new ‘niggers’ are from the 1890 census, in a thinly dis - port for its cause. The movement’s suc - gays. . . . It is in this sense that gay guised attempt to limit a new flood cess also inspired other groups that people are the new barometer for so - of immigrants — many of them poor felt they were treated unfairly. Femi - cial change.” 49 and uneducated — from Eastern and nist scholar Jo Freeman wrote, “Dur - Southern Europe. So, while the law ing the fifties and early sixties, the allowed immigration by about 51,000 Civil Rights Movement captured the The New Newcomers Germans and 62,000 people from Great public imagination and educated it on Britain and Ireland, it permitted fewer the immorality of discrimination and he Exclusion Act, which prohib - than 4,000 Italians and around 2,000 the legitimacy of mass protest . . . . T ited Chinese and most other Asians Russians to enter. In fact, 86.5 percent For women, it provided not only a from immigrating to the United States, of the yearly immigrant quota of 164,667 model for action but a very different was repealed in 1943, when China was was to come from northwest Europe world view from that of the ‘separate an American ally in World War II. and Scandinavia. 51 spheres’ [for women and men], which However, another strict law — the Im - With only minor modifications, the had been the reigning ideology for the migration Act of 1924, which put an - act remained in force for 40 years. previous century.” 48 nual quotas on the number of immi - Then, reflecting the growing atmos - Lessons from the Civil Rights Move - grants from each country who could phere of tolerance in the 1960s, Con - ment also helped to frame the push be accepted into the United States — gress passed the Immigration and for gay rights. Bayard Rustin, a civil was still in effect. Nationality Act of 1965, which abol - rights leader and a key organizer of In a later analysis, the State De - ished the national origins quota sys -

1002 CQ Researcher religion, most while in their teens or bigotry and discrimination . . ., we have early 20s, though about a third of come a very long way in just a few those eventually returned. 4 decades.” A 2009 survey by pollster John

Zogby found that 36 percent of o — Bill Wanlund n i h

boomers thought their generation s

o 1

would be remembered for its self- H Survey cited by Karlyn Bowman and Andrew

o Rugg, “As the Baby Boomers Turn,” Los Angeles

indulgence, compared with 31 per - r i Times , Sept. 12, 2011, www.latimes/news/opinion/ h cent who said its legacy would be i commentary/la-oe-bowman-baby-boomers-more- m social change. 5 i conservative-20010912,0,4867587.story. K

/ 2 Still, in gauging the boomer gen - s “The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election,” e

g Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, erations’ legacy, it’s important to see a Nov. 3, 2011, p. 11, www.people-press.org/2011/ m I

the nation’s transformation in the past 11/03/the-generation-gap-and-the-2012-election/3. y

t 3 four decades in a positive light, Stein - t William Frey, “Baby Boomers Had Better Em - e brace Change,” The Washington Post , June 8, 2012 , G horn says. / www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/06/ P

“We are a far better, more inclu - F 08-baby-boomers-frey. A 4 sive, more equal, more free, more Some 78 million Americans, known as Research by Prof. Wade Clark Roof, cited in Leonard Steinhorn, The Greater Generation (2006). environmentally conscious and less the baby boom generation, were born 5 John Zogby, “The Baby Boomers’ Legacy,” bigoted and prejudiced society than between 1946 and 1964. In 2008, Forbes.com , July 23, 2009, www.forbes.com/2 we have ever been in our nation’s 12 percent of boomers identified 009/07/22/baby-boomer-legacy-change-consumer- history,” he says. “And given that our themselves as liberal, compared with opinions-columnists-john-zogby.html. nation’s original sin was built on 46 percent who said they were conservative.

tem. The new law limited to 170,000 ica topped the list. While European migrants. About 8.4 percent of Amer - the total number of immigrants al - immigrants made up nearly 60 per - ican immigrants came from Europe, lowed into the country but eliminat - cent of the United States’ total for - another 9.1 percent from Africa and ed regional quotas and tied immi - eign population in 1970, they ac - the remainder, around 5.1 percent, from gration to immigrants’ skills and family counted for only 15 percent by the “other regions” — principally, Canada relationships with citizens or U.S. res - end of the century. The percentage and Oceania. 54 idents. of immigrants from Latin America, Overall, the U.S. population is “This is not a revolutionary bill,” however, grew from less than 19 per - aging. In 1950, when the baby boom President Johnson said at the time. “It cent to more than 50 percent in the was just getting under way, 8.2 per - does not affect the lives of millions. same period. 53 cent of Americans were 65 or older; . . . It will not reshape the structure In recent years the United States now, with the boomers reaching that of our daily lives or add importantly has admitted more than a million new age, 13.3 percent are in that age to either our wealth or our power.” 52 immigrants annually. Today, Hispanics bracket . 55 Meanwhile, the birth rate Johnson may have underestimated make up the lion’s share of the im - is declining: The United States recorded the impact of the law, or he may have migrant population. Nearly 22 million, 4 million births in 2010, down 3 per - been understating the case to ease the or around 55 percent of foreign-born cent from the previous year, continu - fears of nervous nationalists. In any Americans, came from Central or ing a recent trend. 56 event, 30 years after the law went into South America or the Caribbean; about These factors, along with in - effect, the United States had admitted 404,000 arrived in 2011 alone, or about creasing longevity (expected life span more than 18 million new immigrants, 37 percent of the total. in the United States now is about more than three times the number However, in 2011, for the first time, 78.5 years), pushed the median age who had entered over the previous Asian immigrants outnumbered His - of Americans to 37.2 in 2010 — up three decades. panics: Some 438,000 came from East from 35.3 in 2000. “The aging of the This time, instead of northern Eu - and South Asia and the Middle East, baby boom population, along with ropeans, immigrants from Latin Amer - representing 41 percent of new im - stabilizing birth rates and longer life

www.cqresearcher.com Nov. 16, 2012 1003 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

expectancy, have contributed to the but now they have a shrinking sup - away. Known as SB 1070, the measure increase in median age,” according ply themselves. Fertility rates are drop - requires law enforcement officials to to the Census Bureau. 57 ping, and they have a birthrate close check the immigration papers of sus - to ours. Moreover, Mexican education pected undocumented workers. 61 levels are rising, and people are de - Under challenge in the courts, SB ciding not to come who may have 1070 is regarded as at least partly re - CURRENT taken a chance before.” sponsible, along with high unem - The immigration pause is not like - ployment rates, for a sharp decline in ly to continue, however, she says. “We the number of undocumented immi - SITUATION can probably assume that when our grants in Arizona, from 560,000 in 2008 economy begins to pick up, immi - to 360,000 in 2011. 62 gration from Mexico will resume.” “The greatest effect of the bill is its Immigration Standstill Even with the recent slowdown, Amer - deterrent effect,” said Republican state ica has about 12 million Mexican im - Rep. John Kavanagh, a sponsor of SB nce a flood, the flow of immi - migrants — more immigrants than from 1070. “It probably scared a lot of ille - O grants from Mexico into the all other countries combined. Roughly gal immigrants from coming here in the United States has come to a halt. 10 percent of people born in Mexico first place or staying if they were here.” In April, the Pew Hispanic Center currently reside in the United States. 59 Kavanagh said the loss of illegal im - reported that since migrants opened up job 2007 net immigration opportunities for U.S. cit - from Mexico — the izens and legal immi - single largest source grants at a time when of immigrants to the the state’s unemployment United States — had rate is 9.5 percent. “So dropped to zero. losing 100,000 or 200,000 Mexicans are still em - workers who were un - n

igrating to the Unit - a dercutting legal workers i z ed States, the center e and depressing wages is s n said, but just as many, a a big plus, as far as I j D and maybe more, are am concerned,” he said. k r 63 returning home. o “Good riddance.” v e

“The standstill ap - K But the Center for / s pears to be the re - e American Progress, a lib - g sult of many factors, a eral Washington, D.C., re - m I

including the weak - y search organization that t t ened U.S. job and e opposes the legislation, G housing construc - Young people at the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los estimates that if all un - tion markets, height - Angeles on Aug. 15, 2012, hear about a new federal program under documented workers ened border en - which eligible undocumented young people can avoid deportation and were expelled from Ari - obtain work permits. Many economists argue that immigrant workers forcement, a rise in have a positive effect on the economy, but others contend that curbing zona, the state would lose deportations, the immigration would leave more jobs for U.S.-born workers. $29.5 billion in pre-tax growing dangers salary and wage earn - associated with illegal border cross - However, more than half of the Mex - ings, $4.2 billion in tax revenue and ings, the long-term decline in Mexi - icans in the United States are undocu - more than 500,000 jobs for both legal co’s birth rates and broader econom - mented, according to the Department and undocumented workers. 64 ic conditions in Mexico,” Pew said. 58 of Homeland Security, a fact that stirs Audrey Singer, a senior fellow at heated debate, especially in the Border the Metropolitan Policy Program at the States. 60 Cities and states have adopt - Dayton Model Brookings Institution, believes the de - ed a variety of measures to deal with cline is due largely to developments illegal immigration, including a contro - n some places, especially cities far in Mexico. “They’ve been sending labor versial law adopted by Arizona in 2010 I removed from the Border States, to the U.S. for one or two generations, aimed at driving illegal immigrants Continued on p. 1006

1004 CQ Researcher At Issue:

Is lyaes rge-scale immigration good for the U.S. economy?

AUDREY SINGER MADELEINE SUMPTION SENIOR FELLOW , SENIOR POLICY ANALYST , THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE

WRITTEN FOR CQ RESEARCHER , NOVEMBER 2012 WRITTEN FOR CQ RESEARCHER , NOVEMBER 2012

he typical way of viewing immigration’s impact on the he assertion that large-scale immigration is good for the U.S. economy is through costs and benefits derived from their economy implies that more immigration is inherently better t presence in the labor market. t than less. This is not necessarily true. The types of immi - While economists debate how best to address this issue, grants a country has — and whether their skills meet U.S. labor there is some agreement that immigrants are a net benefit as market needs — arguably matters much more than raw numbers. measured by national GDP. Most economists believe that immigration to the United A benefit of a steady flow of immigrant workers to the States has raised average incomes (albeit recognizing the gains United States is that they are responsive to labor-market are not universal), and that immigrants — through their tax changes and can go where workers are needed. This is espe - contributions — make it easier to provide public services cially so for newcomers, who tend to be most flexible on without raising tax rates. Other research suggests immigrants where to locate. The plateauing of immigration to the United have contributed disproportionately to innovation and produc - States in response to declining jobs following the recession is tivity. But these findings come with caveats. an important illustration at the national level; many local areas First, not all immigration is the same, and the benefits of mirror this trend. some types of immigration are more clear-cut than others. The It is not suyrprising, then, ethat the greates st economic impact of greatest economnic gains come froo m highly skilled immigrants, immigrants is at the state and local levels, where the brunt of costs many of whom compete for the tiny share of permanent visas to schools, health care systems and law enforcement is borne. available for employment-based immigration. (Most U.S. green In the past two decades, immigrant settlement patterns have cards are issued on the basis of family ties, not prospective shifted significantly. Between 1930 and 1990, half of all immi - economic value.) grants in the United States lived in just five metropolitan areas, Low-skilled immigrants bring some economic benefits, such primarily in the Northeast and Midwest. Since then, the share as lower prices for goods and services like food and child in the top five places has declined to 40 percent, as immi - care. But these overwhelmingly low-paid workers also draw grants have found opportunities in new places, particularly in on public services such as education. More selective policies the South and West. to admit and retain the low-skilled workers best able to sup - Areas with new immigrant streams are more focused on port themselves might help shift this calculus. Balancing cur - the costs of immigration because, at least in the pre-recession rent costs and benefits, the overall economic impact of low- economy, these areas attracted low-wage undocumented work - skilled workers today is probably close to zero. ers at a fast pace. The green card lottery, known as the diversity visa, is also Estimates summarized by the Congressional Budget Office likely to have a low economic return, since its annual 50,000 in 2007 show that in the aggregate and over the long term, beneficiaries fare relatively poorly in the U.S. labor market. A tax revenues paid by immigrants are greater than the services similar argument applies to some refugees and to the parents they use. However, unauthorized immigrants use more state and adult siblings of U.S. citizens. These types of immigration and local services than they pay for because of the types of are almost certainly not economically detrimental, and there services provided and because of the eligibility rules. are plenty of noneconomic arguments in their favor (like the For example, while the percentage of school-age children value of family unity and the moral obligation to protect of unauthorized immigrants is small nationally, this population people fleeing persecution). The economic arguments, however, tends to be concentrated at the very local level, and thus its are not particularly compelling. impact can be swift. Immigration policies are adopted with more than economic The long-term view brings an important economic benefit benefit in mind — and for good reason. But if the goal is into focus. Most of the future growth of the U.S. labor force purely economic gain, simply opening the immigration spigot will come from immigrants and their offspring. This next gener - is not the best strategy. Rather than a bottom-line focus on ation of workers will support the large cohort of baby boom numbers, a more reliable approach for making immigration an retirees that now looms large. This is a reward that the United engine for economic growth would be to create more thoughtful, States should reap — with proper investments — as the next predictable and transparent policies to select the immigrant economno y and workforce take shape. workers who will succeed here. www.cqresearcher.com Nov. 16, 2012 1005 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

Continued from p. 1004 the community in terms of the social Age-friendly Cities project sponsored public officials are encouraging immi - services we’ll need to provide.” by the World Health Organization. 67 gration instead of discouraging it. It’s too early to measure concrete re - • In Atlanta, where one-fifth of res - For instance, the once-thriving man - sults, although Dayton in 2011 added idents will be over age 60 by 2030, the ufacturing center of Dayton, Ohio, start - 600 new residents, Wahlrab says — a Atlanta Regional Commission created a ed losing population in the 1970s after small gain, but the first population in - Lifelong Communities Initiative aimed at businesses began relocating to Sun crease after 40 years of steady decline. promoting housing and transportation Belt states with cheaper, non-union Still, other localities are taking notice. options, encouraging healthy lifestyles labor. General Motors closed a large Financially strapped Detroit, which and expanding information and access assembly plant in 2008, eliminating launched “Global Detroit” in 2010 with to services tailored to older residents. 68 2,400 jobs; NCR, born in Dayton in the slogan, “Welcoming and Connect - Still, many localities are ill-prepared 1884 as the National Cash Register Co., ing the World to Our City,” invited to accommodate the coming wave of moved to Atlanta in 2009, eliminating Wahlrab to come and discuss Dayton’s older residents, experts say. A 2005 another 1,000 jobs. Dayton’s population experiences. “There is a certain ele - survey of communities by the National plunged 42 percent between 1970 and gance and opportunity in the plan that Association of Area Agencies on Aging 2010, sinking to 141,000. Unemploy - Dayton has put together,” said Steve To - found that while many communities ment is currently over 10 percent. bocman, director of Global Detroit. had some programs for older people, Hoping to end the downward spi - “They’ve done certain things so pro - “few had undertaken a comprehen - ral, civic leaders in 2011 introduced foundly right that I think we have a lot sive assessment to create a ‘livable com - the “Welcome Dayton” initiative to at - to learn from it.” 65 munity’ for all ages.” A 2011 follow-up tract immigrant entrepreneurs and work - survey found “only limited progress” to - ers. Welcome Dayton serves as a cat - ward that goal, the group said. Indeed, alyst for public institutions such as Aging in Place as a result of the recent recession, “most police, libraries and community-service communities have been able only to organizations to help brand the city s cities and states try to adjust to ‘hold the line’ — maintaining policies, as immigrant- friendly. For instance, the A immigration trends, they also are programs and services already estab - city’s teachers are offered classes in beginning to taking steps — albeit lished,” the association said. “They have Spanish, Arabic, Turkish and Swahili to haltingly in some cases — to accom - not been able to move forward to the make it easier for them to work with modate the transportation, housing, degree needed to address the nation’s immigrant students. health and other needs of the aging current ‘age wave.’ ” 69 Dayton also helped to establish a population. In eight years, one-fourth “The bottom line is, the baby boomers center to provide education, recreation of residents in half of Ohio’s counties are hitting,” Charles Gehring, president and other services to immigrants for the will be at least 60 years old, and Ari - and CEO of LifeCare Alliance, an agency region’s Ahiska Turkish community. Of - zona and Pennsylvania are projecting that serves seniors in central Ohio, told ficials plan to authorize grants to help that a quarter of their residents will the Columbus Dispatch. “Are communi - immigrants establish businesses, and top age 60 by 2020. 66 ties prepared for this? No.” 70 the city’s First Annual World Soccer Tour - Some cities are stepping up to the nament, held in September, featured challenge. For example: local adult and youth teams represent - • New York City, where more than ing the international community. one in eight residents are over 60, es - OUTLOOK Tom Wahlrab, who retired in Jan - tablished Age-Friendly New York City, uary as director of the city’s Office of which officials describe as “promoting Human Rights, says, “Two things are an ‘age-in-everything’ lens across all fueling Welcome Dayton: The need for aspects of city life. The initiative asks Political Changes economic development and the human the city’s public agencies, businesses, factor. Many of those who are com - cultural, educational and religious in - he 2012 presidential election under - ing are refugees with a lot of needs. stitutions, community groups and in - T scored in dramatic fashion the cru - Unless we recognize those needs and dividuals to consider how changes to cial role that demographic changes are do what we can to help them gain a policy and practice can create a city having in political and policy circles. Ex - foothold in our community, they’re more inclusive of older adults and more perts expect that role to grow even going to be a burden. They won’t be sensitive to their needs.” The effort, stronger in coming years as the profile productive, and they’re going to cost formed in 2009, is part of a broader of the electorate continues to evolve.

1006 CQ Researcher Many analysts believe the Republi - out in benefits. The Social Security Board can Party fared poorly in this year’s of Trustees told Congress that the com - Notes election in part because it did not do bined assets of the two trust funds from 1 enough to address the interests of the which Social Security benefits are paid “Most Children Younger Than Age 1 are Mi - norities, Census Bureau Reports”, U.S. Census nation’s burgeoning Hispanic popula - will be exhausted in 2033. 74 Bureau news release, May 17, 2012 , www.census. tion. “The Hispanic population will Meanwhile, some question whether gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/ grow faster than any other demo - Obama’s re-election, along with the cb12-90.html . graphic, meaning this political prob - growing prominence of minorities in 2 “An Older and More Diverse Nation by Mid - lem is growing for Republicans,” GOP the nation’s demographic profile, means century”, U.S. Census Bureau news release, strategist Matt Mackowiak told The Hill that policy makers no longer need to Aug. 14, 2008, www.census.gov/newsroom/ after the Nov. 6 elections. “We need pay the same degree of attention to releases/archives/population/cb08-123.html . more Hispanic candidates, more His - race and ethnicity as in the past. 3 Haya El Nasser and Paul Overberg, “Cen - panic outreach and less bellicose lan - Brian Smedley, vice president of the sus tracks 20 years of sweeping change,” USA guage on immigration.” 71 Joint Center for Political and Economic Today , Aug. 10, 2011, http://usatoday30.usa Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Studies, a Washington-based research today.com/news/nation/census/2011-08-10- census-20-years-change_n.htm . Rice, who served in the administration organization dealing with minority pub - 4 Mark Hugo Lopez and Paul Taylor, “Latino of Republican George W. Bush, said lic policy issues, doesn’t think so. Voters in the 2012 Election,” Pew Hispanic Republicans had sent “mixed messages” “One of the most significant chal - Center, Nov. 7, 2012, www.pewhispanic.org/ on immigration and women’s issues lenges for the Civil Rights Movement 2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election /. and must do a better job of adapting today is to somehow tackle the notion 5 Michael D. Shear, “Demographic Shift Brings to changing U.S. demographics. that the United States is now color-blind New Worry for Republicans,” The New York “Right now for me, the most pow - or post-racial,” he says. He fears the na - Times , Nov. 7, 2012, www.nytimes.com/2012/ erful argument is that the changing de - tion is in danger of leaving behind the 11/08/us/politics/obamas-victory-presents-gop- mographics in the country really ne - ideals of racial equality. with-demographic-test.html?ref=politics . 6 cessitate an even bigger tent for the “There are many who believe that “Obama Win Shows Demographic Shifts,” Republican Party,” she said. “But when because we have [elected] an African- op. cit. 7 Press release, “Latino Candidates Make His - you look at the composition of the elec - American president, and people of color tory on Election Night,” National Association of torate, clearly we are losing important are leading Fortune 500 companies, Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educa - segments of that electorate, and what etc., race no longer matters in our so - tion Fund, Nov. 7, 2012, www.prnewswire.com/ we have to do is to appeal to those ciety. Of course, we’ve made tremen - news-releases/latino-candidates-make-history- people not as identity groups but un - dous progress in race relations in the on-election-night-177729141.html . derstanding that if you can get the iden - United States over the past 50-plus years, 8 “ ‘Nones’ on the Rise: One-in-Five Adults Have tity issues out of the way, then you can and that should be celebrated,” he says. No Religious Affiliation”, Report by the Pew Re - appeal on the broader issues that all “It’s remarkable that we have created search Center Forum on Religion & Public Life, Americans share concerns for. ” 72 a society that is much more egalitari - Oct. 9, 2012, www.pewforum.org/Unaffiliated/ The demographic challenges facing an, and we’re moving closer to our nones-on-the-rise.aspx . 9 policy makers in coming years cross party ideal as a nation where people truly Laura B. Shrestha and Elayne J. Heisler, “The Changing Demographic Profile of the United lines, however. Dealing with the bur - are judged by the content of their char - States”, Congressional Research Service, geoning ranks of seniors and adequately acter and not by the color of their skin. March 31, 2011, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL3 funding Social Security, Medicare and “However,” he continues, “many peo - 2701.pdf . Medicaid — which pays for nursing home ple of color still face profound inequities 10 D’Vera Cohn and Paul Taylor, “Baby Boomers care for low-income elderly people — across a host of dimensions . . . such Approach Age 65 — Glumly,” Pew Research are among the biggest challenges. as health, wealth, educational status, in - Center, Dec. 20, 2010, http://pewresearch.org/ More than 56 million Americans come, home ownership, you name it. pubs/1834/baby-boomers-old-age-downbeat- now receive Social Security benefits, It’s more critical than ever that we focus pessimism . and 23 percent of married couples and the nation’s attention on these prob - 11 For background see Alan Greenblatt, “The about 46 percent of unmarried per - lems because the demographic shifts Graying Planet,” CQ Global Researcher , March 15, sons who are 65 years old or older that are coming suggest that we need 2011, pp. 133-156. 12 2010 Census Data, U.S. Census Bureau, rely on Social Security for 90 percent to be very mindful of what our nation 73 http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data /. or more of their income. will look like and how the inequities 13 Sabrina Tavernise, “Whites Account for In 2010, for the first time, Social Se - will hurt everyone in this country un - Under Half of Births in U.S.,” The New York curity collected less in taxes than it paid less we solve them.” Times , May 17, 2012, www.nytimes.com/

www.cqresearcher.com Nov. 16, 2012 1007 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

2012/05/17/us/whites-account-for-under-half- people-press.org/2011/11/03/the-generation- 34 Giovanni Peri, “The Effect of Immigrants of-births-in-us.html?pagewanted=all . gap-and-the-2012-election-3 /. on U.S. Employment and Productivity,” Fed - 14 John Blake, “Are Whites Racially Oppressed?”, 26 Linda A. Jacobsen, et al. , “America’s Aging eral Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic CNN, March 4, 2011, www.cnn.com/2010/US/ Population,” Population Bulletin 66 , no. 1 Letter, August 30, 2010, www.frbsf.org/publi 12/21/white.persecution/index.html . (2011), Population Reference Bureau. cations/economics/letter/2010/el2010-26.html . 15 Daniel Cox; E.J. Dionne, Jr.; William A. 27 Frank W. Heiland and Zhe Li, “Changes 35 Niall Stanage, “Women, minorities propel Galston; Robert P. Jones, “What it Means to be in Labor Force Participation of Older Amer - Obama victory,” The Hill , Nov. 7, 2012, http:// an American,” Brookings Institution, Sept. 6, 2011, icans and Their Pension Structures: A Policy thehill.com/homenews/campaign/266485- www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2011/ 09/ Perspective,” Boston College Center for Re - women-minorities-propel-obama-victory . 06-american-attitudes . tirement Research, August 2012, http://crr.bc. 36 Quoted in Dylan Scott, “Political Demo - 16 “U.S. Religious Landscape Survey”, Pew Forum edu/working-papers/changes-in-labor-force- graphic Trends Brighter for Democrats,” Gov - on Religion and Public Life, February 2008, http:// participation-of-older-americans-and-their-pen erning , April 11, 2012, www.governing.com/ religions.pewforum.org/pdf/report-religious- sion-structures-a-policy-perspective-2 . blogs/politics/gov-political-demographic-trends - landscape-study-full.pdf . 28 Don Lee, “More older workers making up brighter-for-democrats.html . 17 Ibid. labor force,” Los Angeles Times , Sept. 4, 2012, 37 Jeffrey Passell, D’Vera Cohn and Mark 18 Samuel P. Huntington, Who Are We? The http://articles.latimes.com/2012/sep/04/business/ Hugo Lopez, “Hispanics Account for More Challenges to America’s National Identity la-fi-labor-seniors-20120903 . than Half of Nation’s Growth in Past Decade,” (2004), p. 18. 29 Alicia H. Munnell and April Yanyuan Wu, Pew Hispanic Center, March 24, 2011, www. 19 Joel Kotkin, “Minority America,” Newgeo “Will Delayed Retirement by the Baby Boomers pewhispanic.org/2011/03/24/hispanics-account- graphy.com, Aug. 20, 2008, www.newgeo Lead to Higher Unemployment Among for-more-than-half-of-nations-growth-in-past- graphy.com/content/00175-minority-america . Younger Workers?”, Center for Retirement Re - decade /. 20 Paul Taylor, Mark Hugo Lopez, Jessica search at Boston College, October 2012, http:// 38 William H. Frey, “Will 2012 be the Last Hur - Hamar Martinez and Gabriel Velasco, “When crr.bc.edu/working-papers/will-delayed-retire rah for Whites?,” National Journal , “The Next Labels Don’t Fit: Hispanics and Their Views ment-by-the-baby-boomers-lead-to-higher-un America,” June 13, 2012, http://national journal. of Identity,” Pew Hispanic Center, April 4, 2012, employment-among-younger-workers /. com/thenextamerica/demographics/will-2012- “Two-Thirds of Democrats Now Support Gay 30 Mark Miller, “Are Older Workers Getting in be-the-last-hurrah-for-whites--20120613 . Marriage,” Poll, Pew Forum on Religion and the Way of the Young?,” Reuters, Jan. 6, 2012, 39 Alan I. Abramowitz, “Beyond 2010: Demo - Public Life, July 31, 2012, www.pewforum. www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/06/retirement- graphic Change and the Future of the Re - org/Politics-and-Elections/2012-opinions-on- jobs-idUSN1E80507520120106 . publican Party,” University of Virginia Center for-gay-marriage-unchanged-after-obamas- 31 Press release, American Association of Col - for Politics, “Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball,” announcement.aspx . leges of Nursing, “Nursing Shortage,” www.aacn. March 11, 2010, www.centerforpolitics.org/ 21 “The Rise of Asian Americans,” Pew Research nche.edu/media-relations/fact-sheets/nursing- crystalball/articles/aia2010031101 /. Center, June 19, 2012, www.pewsocialtrends. shortage . 40 Ruy Teixeira and William Frey, “New Data org/2012/06/19/the-rise-of-asian-americans /. 32 “Immigration, Poverty and Low-Wage Earn - on Obama’s Massive Demographic Advan - 22 Wendy Wang, “The Rise of Intermarriage,” ers: The Harmful Effects of Unskilled Immi - tage,” The New Republic , July 9, 2012, www.tnr. Pew Research Center, Feb. 16, 2012, www.pew grants on American Workers,” Federation for com/blog/plank/104746/how-much-will-demo socialtrends.org/2012/02/16/the-rise-of-inter - American Immigration Reform, July 2010 (re - graphic-changes-help-obama-in-swing-states . marriage/?src=prc-headline . vised Feb. 2011), www.fairus.org/publications/ 41 Lila Shapiro, “Gay Marriage Victory In Maine, 23 For background, see Haya El Nasser, immigration-poverty-and-low-wage-earners- Maryland; Minnesota Votes Down ‘Tradition - “Black-white marriages on the rise,” USA Today , the-harmful-effects-of-unskilled-immigrants-on- al’ Amendment (UPDATE),” The Huffington Sept. 20, 2011, http://usa today30.usatoday.com/ american-wor . Post , Nov. 7, 2012, www.huffingtonpost.com/ news/nation/story/2011 -09-19/interracial-mar 33 “Georgia Data Quantify Impact of Undoc - 2012/11/07/gay-marriage-victory_n_2085900.html . riages/50469776/1 . umented Workers,” Southwest Economy, Fed - 42 “How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary 24 Wang, op. cit. eral Reserve Bank of Dallas, second quarter Analysis,” Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, 25 “The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election,” 2012, www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/ Nov. 7, 2012, www.pewforum.org/Politics-and- The Pew Research Center, Nov. 3, 2011, www. research/swe/2012/swe1202e.pdf . Elections/How-the-Faithful-Voted-2012-Prelimi nary-Exit-Poll-Analysis.aspx . 43 “Black Americans in Congress,” Office of About the Author the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives, http:// baic.house.gov/historical-essays/essay.html?int Bill Wanlund is a freelance writer in the Washington, D.C., ID=1&intSectionID=11 . area. He is a former foreign service officer, with service in 44 Roger Finke and Rodney Starke, The Church - Europe, Asia, Africa and South America. He holds a jour - ing of America, 1776-2005: Winners and Losers nalism degree from The George Washington University and in Our Religious Economy (2002), p. 123. has written for CQ Researcher on drone warfare and down - 45 Lawrence H. Fuchs, The American Kalei - town development. doscope: Race, Ethnicity, and the Civic Cul - ture (1990), p. 134.

1008 CQ Researcher 46 Rodman D. Griffin, “Hispanic Americans,” CQ Researcher , Oct. 30, 1992. 47 For background, see Congressional Quar - FOR MORE INFORMATION terly, Congress and the Nation Vol. I (1965), American Association of Retired Persons , 601 E St., N.W., Washington, DC pp. 762-767. 20009 ; 888-687-2277 ; www.aarp.org . Membership organization that advocates for 48 Jo Freeman, “From Suffrage to Women’s Lib - people 50 years of age and older. eration: Feminism in Twentieth Century Amer - ica,” published in Jo Freeman, ed., Women: A Brookings Institution , 1775 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20036 ; 202-797-6000 ; www.brookings.edu . Research organization focusing on wide range Feminist Perspective (5th ed., 1995), excerpted of issues, including economics, social policy, urban affairs and politics. at www.uic.edu/orgs/cwluherstory/jofreeman/ feminism/suffrage.htm . Center for Immigration Studies , 1629 K St., N.W., Suite 600, Washington, DC 49 Rev. Osagyefo Uhuru Sekou, “Killing the 20006 ; 202-466-8185 ; www.cis.org . Research organization that supports lower levels Buddha” blog, http://killingthebuddha.com/ of immigration. mag/damnation/gays-are-the-new-niggers /. Center for Retirement Research at Boston College , Hovey House, 258 Ham - 50 U.S. State Department, Office of the His - mond St., Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 ; 617-552-1762 ; www.crr.bu.edu . Research insti - torian, Milestones 1921-1936, http://history.state. tution focusing on retirement issues. gov/milestones/1921-1936/ImmigrationAct . Pew Research Center , 901 E St., N.W., Washington, DC 20004-2008 ; 202-552-2000 ; 51 “Who Was Shut Out?: Immigration Quo - www.pew.org . Arm of the Pew Charitable Trusts that conducts research on such tas, 1925-1927,” History Matters, http://history topics as Hispanics in America and the role of religion in public life. matters.gmu.edu/d/5078 /. Urban Institute , 2100 M St., N.W., Washington, DC 20037 ; 202-833-7200 ; www.urban.org . 52 Remarks by President Lyndon B. Johnson Non-partisan research organization focusing on social and economic issues. at the Signing of the Immigration Bill, Liberty Island, New York, Oct. 3, 1965, www.lbjlib. U.S. Social Security Administration , Windsor Park Building, 6401 Security Blvd., utexas.edu/johnson/archives.hom/speeches. Baltimore, MD 21235 ; 800-772-1213 ; www.ssa.gov . Federal agency that administers hom/651003.asp . the Social Security retirement, disability and survivors’ benefits programs. 53 “U.S. Historical Immigration Trends,” Migration Policy Institute, www.migrationinformation. grant Population Residing in the United States: 66 “Few U.S. cities are ready for aging Baby org/datahub/historicaltrends.cfm#source . January 2011,” Report of the Department of Boomer population,” Associated Press, March 25, 54 “The Newly Arrived Foreign-Born Population Homeland Security, March 2012 , www.dhs.gov/ 2012, http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/ of the United States: 2010,” American Com - files/statistics/publications/estimates-unautho health/story/health/story/2012-03-25/Few-US- munity Survey Brief, U.S. Census Bureau, No - rized-immigrant-population.shtm . cities-are-ready-for-aging-baby-boomer-popu vember 2011, www.census.gov/prod/2011 61 For background, see Kenneth Jost, “Immi - lation/53765292/1 . pubs/acsbr10-16.pdf . gration Conflict,” CQ Researcher , March 9, 2012 , 67 “Age-Friendly NYC,” Nov. 9, 2012 www.nyam. 55 “USA Quick Facts”, US Bureau of the Cen - pp. 229-252. org/agefriendlynyc /. sus, http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/000 62 Daniel González, “Arizona’s illegal-immi - 68 “Lifelong Communities,” Atlanta Regional 00.html . gration population plunges,” The Arizona Re - Commission, Nov. 9, 2012, www.atlantaregional. 56 “Births: Final Data for 2010”, Joyce Martin, public , March 23, 2012, www.azcentral.com/ com/aging-resources/lifelong-communities-llc . M.P.H., et al ., National Center for Health Sta - arizonarepublic/news/articles/2012/03/23/2012 69 “The Maturing of America: Communities tistics, August 2012, www.cdc.gov/nchs/births. 0323arizona-illegal-migrant-population-plung Moving Forward for an Aging Population,” Na - htm . es.html . tional Association of Area Agencies on Aging, 57 “2010 Census Shows Nation’s Population 63 Daniel Gonzalez, “Arizona immigration law: June 2011, pp. i, ii , www.n4a.org/files/MOA_ is Aging “, News Release, US Census Bureau, A look at bill’s impact 1 year later,” The Arizona FINAL_Rpt.pdf . May 26, 2011, http://2010.census.gov/news/ Republic , April 23, 2011, www.azcentral.com/ 70 Quoted in “Few cities are ready . . .,” op. cit. releases/operations/cb11-cn147.html . news/election/azelections/articles/2011/04/23/ 71 Stanage, op. cit. 58 Jeffrey Passel, D’Vera Cohn and Ana Gon - 20110423arizona-immigration-law-impact-year- 72 “Condoleezza Rice: GOP Sent ‘Mixed Mes - zalez-Barrera, “Net Migration from Mexico later.html . sages’ On Immigration And Women’s Issues,” Falls to Zero-and Perhaps Less,” Pew Hispanic 64 Raul Hinojsa-Ojeda and Marshall Fritz, “A The Associated Press/ The Huffington Post , Center, April 23, 2012, www.pewhispanic.org/ Rising Tide or a Shrinking Pie: The Economic Nov. 9, 2012, www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/ 2012/04/23/net-migration-from-mexico-falls-to- Impact of Legalization Versus Deportation in Ari - 11/09/condoleezza-rice_n_2099505.html . zero-and-perhaps-less /. zona,” Center for American Progress, March 2011 , 73 “Social Security Basic Facts,” Social Secu - 59 Jeffrey Passel, et al. , “Net Migration from www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/ rity Administration fact sheet, July 30, 2012, Mexico Falls to Zero-and Perhaps Less”, Pew issues/2011/03/pdf/rising_tide.pdf . www.ssa.gov/pressoffice/basicfact.htm . Hispanic Center, April 23, 2012, www.pew 65 Andrew O’Reilly, “Dayton’s Immigration 74 “The 2012 Annual Report of the Board Of hispanic.org/2012/04/23/net-migration-from- Strategy for Growth is Drawing Notice”, Fox Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors mexico-falls-to-zero-and-perhaps-less /. News Latino, May 10, 2012, http://latino.fox Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust 60 Michael Hoefer, Nancy Rytina and Bryan news.com/latino/news/2012/05/10/dayton-immi Funds”, April 25, 2012, U.S. Government Print - Baker, “Estimates of the Unauthorized Immi - gration-strategy-for-growth-is-drawing-notice /. ing Office 73-947, Washington, DC.

www.cqresearcher.com Nov. 16, 2012 1009 Bibliography Selected Sources

Books Frey , William , “Baby Boomers Had Better Embrace Change,” The Washington Post , June 8, 2012 , www.brookings.edu/ Ehrenhalt , Alan , The Great Inversion and the Future of research/opinions/2012/06/08-baby-boomers-frey . the American City , Alfred A. Knopf , 2012 . A demographer at the Washington, D.C.-based think tank The executive editor of Stateline news service and former discusses population and attitudinal trends. executive editor of Governing magazine explores how Amer - ican cities are changing and the implications for the future. Howe , Neal , “What Makes Boomers the Boomers?” Gov erning.com , September 2012 , www.governing.com/gene Huntington , Samuel P. , Who Are We? The Challenges to rations/government-management/gov-what-makes-boom America’s National Identity , Simon & Shuster , 2004 . ers.html . The late Harvard University political scientist (1927-2008) A demographer, historian, author and consultant on gen - examines the impact of immigrants and their cultural values erational transitions investigates the myths about and reali - on American society. ties of the baby boom generation.

Putnam , Robert D. , and David E. Campbell , American Grace: Reports and Studies How Religion Divides and Unites Us , Simon & Schuster, 2010 . A professor of public policy at Harvard (Putnam) and a po - “Immigration, Poverty and Low-Wage Earners: The Harmful litical science professor at the University of Notre Dame (Camp - Effect of Unskilled Immigrants on American Workers (2011),” bell) examine how religion, politics and culture intersect. Federation for American Immigration Reform , 2011 , www. fairus.org/issue/immigration-poverty-and-low-wage-earners- Steinhorn , Leonard , The Greater Generation: In Defense the-harmful-effect-of-unskilled-immigrants-on-american-work . of the Baby Boom Legacy , Thomas Dunne Books , 2006 . A national nonprofit organization that seeks stricter limits A professor of communications at American University argues on immigration argues that unskilled immigrant labor harms that the postwar generation shaped America for the better. native-born Americans.

Wilkerson , Isabel , The Warmth of Other Suns: The Epic “State of Metropolitan America: On the Front Lines of Story of America’s Great Migration , Random House , 2010 . Demographic Transformation,” Metropolitan Policy Pro - A journalist and Boston University professor provides a gram, Brookings Institution , 2010 . Pulitzer Prize-winning account of the exodus of 6 million The Washington-based public policy think tank analyzes African-Americans from the South to the urban North and the impact of recent demographic changes on U.S. metro - West between 1915 and 1970. politan areas.

Articles Funk , Cary , and Greg Smith , “ ‘Nones’ on the Rise: One-in- Five Adults Have No Religious Affiliation,” Pew Forum Brownstein , Ron , “Do Immigrants Threaten American on Religion and Public Life , Oct. 9, 2012 , www.pewforum. Values?” National Journal , June 14, 2012 , www.national org/Unaffiliated/nones-on-the-rise.aspx . journal.com/thenextamerica/immigration/do-immigrants- A nonpartisan research organization examines trends in threaten-american-values--20120614 . American religious belief and practice. A journalist dissects a decade of Pew research polling that reveals consistent divides among whites over the impact of Jacobsen , Linda A. , et al. , “America’s Aging Population,” immigrants on American society. Population Reference Bureau , 2011 , www.prb.org/pdf11/ aging-in-america.pdf . Castañeda , Jorge G. , and Douglas S. Massey , “Do-it-Yourself The think tank report examines the costs and implications Immigration Reform,” The New York Times , June 1, 2012 , of an aging population. www.nytimes.com/2012/06/02/opinion/do-it-yourself-immi gration-reform.html?_r=1&ref=jorgegcastaneda . Myers , Dowell , and John Pitkin , “Assimilation Tomorrow: A former Mexican foreign minister (Castañeda) and a Princeton How America’s Immigrants will Assimilate by 2030,” sociology and public affairs professor (Massey) discuss the caus - Center for American Progress , November 2011 , www. es and effects of the current stasis in immigration from Mexico. americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2011/ 11/14/10583/assimilation-tomorrow /. “A Contentious Flock,” The Economist , July 7, 2012 , pp. A demographer/urban planner (Myers) and a demographer/ 33-34 . economist from the University of Southern California (Pitkin) The reporter examines polarization and diversity among examine the outlook for American immigrants. American Catholics.

1010 CQ Researcher The Next Step: Additional Articles from Current Periodicals

Black Migration 2012/0731/Republican-references-to-real-Americans-in cite-division-and-fear . Diaz , John , “Quiet Exodus From the City,” The San Fran - The Republican Party must abandon divisive language and cisco Chronicle , Dec. 4, 2011 , p. E3 , www.sfgate.com/opin embrace more unifying racial messages in order to remain ion/diaz/article/The-quiet-exodus-of-African-Americans- relevant amid changing demographics, says a comparative from-S-F-2345107.php . government student at Oxford University. Blacks recently have been moving out of major cities often because of positive factors, says a Brookings Institution report. Helms , Ann Doss , “Changing Demographics Leave South’s Political Future in Flux,” Charlotte (N.C.) Observer , Sept. 2, DiSalvo , Daniel , “The Great Reverse Migration,” Pitts - 2012 , www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/09/03/3498928/ burgh Post-Gazette , Sept. 30, 2012 , p. B1 , www.post-gazette. unc-panel-changing-demographics.html . com/stories/opinion/perspectives/the-great-reverse-mi The changing racial composition of the Southern states may gration-african-americans-are-abandoning-the-northern- determine which political party becomes more influential in cities-that-have-failed-them-655514 /. the future, says at panel of experts at the University of North Many blacks are returning to the South because the Great Carolina at Chapel Hill. Migration trapped many of them in urban ghettos for sev - eral generations. Malveaux , Julianne , “Blacks Must Adjust to Changing Times,” USA Today , Feb. 17 2012 , p. A9 , usatoday30.usa Jackson , Maurice , “Pricing the Soul Out of Washington, today.com/news/opinion/forum/story/2012-02-16/black- D.C.,” The Chronicle of Higher Education , June 18, 2012 , history-month/53122698/1 . chronicle.com/article/Pricing-the-Soul-Out-of/132259 /. Black politicians in urban areas can no longer rely strict - Many blacks are migrating out of the nation’s capital be - ly on the black vote to win elections because of demo - cause of rising home costs and a lack of upward mobility. graphic shifts in their neighborhoods, says the president of Bennett College for Women in North Carolina. Economy O’Toole , James , “Do New Realities Alter Voting Patterns?” Aguilera , Elizabeth , “Fewer Whites in Workforce by End Pittsburgh Post-Gazette , Jan. 21, 2012 , p. A1 , www.post- of Decade,” San Diego Union-Tribune , March 4, 2012 , gazette.com/stories/news/politics-national/republican- p. C1 , www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/mar/04/tp-fewer- party-deals-with-changing-demographics-in-south-carolina- whites-in-workforce-by-end-of-decade/?print&page=all . primary-218595/?print=1 . The nation’s growing Latino population will make up about Republican politicians are constantly changing campaign three-quarters of the predicted growth in the labor market strategies to respond to the changing demographics of their by 2020, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics. voter base, says a columnist.

Censer , Marjorie , “Graying Workforce Creates More Com - plex World for Employers,” The Washington Post , Feb. 20, CITING CQ RESEARCHER 2012 , p. A19 . Sample formats for citing these reports in a bibliography Companies must navigate the changing demographics of the labor force as more employees reach retirement age. include the ones listed below. Preferred styles and formats vary, so please check with your instructor or professor. Ontiveros , Sue , “So Much for the Myth Latinos Are a Drain on Local Economy,” Chicago Sun-Times , Nov. 20, 2011 , MLA STYLE p. A29 , www.suntimes.com/news/ontiveros/8875319-452/ Jost, Kenneth. “Remembering 9/11,” CQ Researcher 2 Sept. so-much-for-the-myth-latinos-are-a-drain-on-local-econo 2011: 701-732. my.html . Latinos — including both U.S. citizens and undocumented APA S TYLE immigrants — add $5 billion in tax revenues to metropoli - Jost, K. (2011, September 2). Remembering 9/11. CQ Re - tan Chicago and use $3.9 billion worth of public services. searcher, 9 , 701-732.

Politics CHICAGO STYLE Gergi , Bassam , “Republican References to ‘Real Americans’ Jost, Kenneth. “Remembering 9/11.” CQ Researcher , September Incite Division and Fear,” The Christian Science Monitor , 2, 2011, 701-732. July 31, 2012 , www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/

www.cqresearcher.com Nov. 16, 2012 1011 In-depth Reports on Issues in the News

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