Supporting Document for Proposed Local Development Plan 2015
East Dunbartonshire Evidence Report 6: Retail Capacity Assessment
Strategic Environmental Assessment: Environment Report Action Programme Habitats Regulations Appraisal Equality Impact Assessment Policy Background Reports Evidence Report 1: Addressing Housing Need and Demand in East Dunbartonshire Evidence Report 2: Housing Land Audit 2014 Evidence Report 3: Site Assessments Evidence Report 4: Campsie Fells Statement of Importance Evidence Report 5: Kilpatrick Hills Statement of Importance Evidence Report 6: Retail Capacity Assessment Evidence Report 7: Wind Energy Framework and Roderick MacLean Associates Ltd
EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE COUNCIL
EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT
AMENDED VERSION
August 2014
East Dunbartonshire Council Retail Capacity Assessment
Contents
1.0 Introduction 2.0 Planning Policy Framework 3.0 Retail Market Overview 4.0 Retail Catchment Areas & Populations 5.0 Household Survey 6.0 Convenience Expenditure & Turnover 7.0 Spare Convenience Expenditure Capacity 8.0 Comparison Expenditure & Turnover 9.0 Spare Comparison Expenditure Capacity 10.0 Conclusions
Appendices
Appendix 1: Household survey questions
Appendix 2: Convenience shopping patterns – household survey
Appendix 3: Convenience expenditure inflows from beyond East Dunbartonshire
Appendix 4: Comparison shopping patterns - household survey
Appendix 5: Comparison expenditure inflows from beyond East Dunbartonshire Appendix 6: Strathkelvin Retail Park
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Ryden and Roderick MacLean Associates were instructed by East Dunbartonshire Council (EDC) in August 2013 to undertake a Retail Capacity Assessment for East Dunbartonshire. The retail capacity assessment is required to inform the emerging Local Development Plan (LDP) town centre and retail policy options.
1.2 There have been considerable changes within the retail sector, at a national and local level since the last retail capacity study was undertaken in 2008 (and published in 2009). That study identified limited capacity for further convenience retailing and a larger requirement for comparison retail floorspace and bulky goods in particular, which if satisfied would allow the catchment to compete with centres in the surrounding area.
1.3 This report provides an up-to-date retail assessment of the need for additional convenience and comparison retail floorspace during the emerging LDP period (2016-2021) and establishes a benchmark against which the impact of retail proposals contrary to the LDP can be assessed in the future. This version of the report amends the version dated February 2014 to include a non-food retail consent in Milngavie.
Study Area 1.4 The study area, East Dunbartonshire, is located to the north of Glasgow and bounded by the Campsie Fells and Kilpatrick Hills. It covers an area of 20,172 ha with an estimated population of 105,192 (as at 2011). The main settlements are Bearsden, Milgavie, Kirkintilloch and Bishopbriggs and these form the principal focus of the study.
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Figure 1: East Dunbartonshire Council Area
Source: East Dunbartonshire Council
1.5 Following this introductory chapter the report is structured as follows: Chapter 2 - Planning Policy Framework Chapter 3 - Retail Market Overview Chapter 4 - Retail Catchment Areas & Populations Chapter 5 - Household Survey Chapter 6 - Convenience Expenditure & Turnover Chapter 7 - Spare Convenience Expenditure Capacity Chapter 8 - Comparison Expenditure & Turnover Chapter 9 - Spare Comparison Expenditure Capacity Chapter 10 - Conclusions
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2.0 Planning Policy Framework
Scottish Planning Policy
2.1 The most recent version of the SPP was published in June 2014. The main change in emphasis compared to the 2010 version is the greater focus on encouraging the diversity of uses and vitality within town centres generally, alongside support for improvement to the quality of the centres as places to live and work.
2.2 The ‘Town Centres First’ policy is promoted in the 2014 SPP, when planning for uses which attract significant numbers of people, including retail, commercial and leisure uses, offices, community and cultural facilities. Plans should identify a network of centres (city centres, town centres, local centres and commercial centres), explaining how they interrelate. Health checks of town centres should be undertaken regularly to assess their vitality and viability and strengths/ weaknesses. These checks should be used to develop town centre strategies.
2.3 Development plans should adopt the sequential approach to preferred locations for uses which generate significant footfall, including retailing and other uses, in the following order of preference:
Town centres Edge of town centres Other commercial centres Out of centre locations that are readily accessible by a choice of transport.
2.4 Out of centre locations should only be considered where the town centre/ edge of centre and commercial centre options are unavailable or do not exist, together with meeting other criteria specified in the SPP.
Development Plan 2.5 The development plan for East Dunbartonshire is made up of two parts, the strategic development plan (SDP) - Glasgow & Clyde Valley Strategic Development Plan (2012) and the Local Plan - East Dunbartonshire Local Plan 2 (Adopted 31 October 2011).
2.6 The SDP is a high level document which sets out the spatial vision and related strategic development strategy for the Glasgow city-region, up to 2035. It provides the geographical framework for local authorities to produce their local development plans and assess planning applications.
2.7 Background Report 14 of the SDP ‘Network of Strategic Centres’ provides the context for retailing within the city-region. This network is identified as
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a hierarchy of the city centre, strategic centres and other centres and is based on “retail offer and local strategic significance”. The intention is to protect centres from further decline caused by a trend towards out of centre locations driven by retailers demand for modern and larger floorplates.
2.8 Glasgow city centre sits at the top of the network hierarchy due to its dominance in the city-region and wider area. The twenty three strategic centres below fall into two categories – those with an important retail function and those with a strategic function within the local authority area. Kirkintilloch falls into the latter due to the role of its historic town centre as a civic and cultural centre and is the only East Dunbartonshire town to be included.
2.9 Following on from the SDP, local development plan policies should reflect the need to ‘safeguard and promote’ the network of centres based on their specific role and function. The relevant local policies for East Dunbartonshire are outlined below.
2.10 East Dunbartonshire Local Plan 2 was adopted 31 October 2011 and provides the land use framework for the East Dunbartonshire area. This sets out the policies for the town centres, namely Milngavie, Bearsden, Bishopbriggs and Kirkintilloch to “maintain and improve their attractiveness as shopping and visitor destinations and to maintain and, where appropriate, recover market share and improve centre vitality and viability”.
2.11 The local plan policies therefore seek to protect and enhance the retail offering in the town centres, increase residential use and improve accessibility.
2.12 East Dunbartonshire Council is preparing a new Local Development Plan for the area which will replace the East Dunbartonshire Local Plan 2. This is currently at the Main Issues stage and the new LDP is expected to be completed in 2016. This study will help to inform the emerging LDP retail planning policies.
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3.0 Retail Market Overview
Retailing in Scotland
3.1 Two major trends have been affecting the retail and leisure sector: market concentration in larger destinations at the expense of smaller locations, and pressure on consumer expenditure as price inflation outstrips earnings growth. The market response is very selective new investment by successful retailers, against a wider background of failures and rationalisations among less successful businesses. Much of the market is now polarised between well-occupied prime destinations and weaker locations where trade and retailer demand are much more fragile.
3.2 According to the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC)/KPMG, sales in Scotland during December 2013 were 1.1% higher than December 2012. However, like-for-like sales (which discount the impact of store openings, closures and expansions in order to measure performance across the retail sector) decreased by 2.9% over the same period.
3.3 SRC reports that shop price deflation is having an impact upon the values of sales and, in real terms, sales in December decreased by 0.3%. Both food and non-food sales were lower, at 0.3% and 1.7% respectively, than the previous December. Wages rates have not increased at the same rates as inflation resulting in subdued consumer spending.
3.4 Trading conditions have been difficult for many retailers. 2012 was the worst year for retailers failing since 2008. In 2013, a number of major retailers such as Comet, Blockbusters and Jessops collapsed. Other struggling retailers such as Dreams and HMV have been saved, either in whole or part, after being purchased by restructuring specialists.
3.5 Value retailers, for example B & M, Poundworld, Home Bargains and Poundland, are still expanding and actively looking for new sites. In general however, although national multiple retailers do have property requirements, these are very specific in terms of location and property type.
3.6 In the food sector, the most active sub-sector is the local convenience store market, as the big four food retailers jostle for position and market share. There are around 49,000 convenience stores in the UK but branded grocery chains account for less than 10%. Tesco, Co-op and Sainsbury’s are all active with Morrisons having a requirement for 300 outlets for their ‘M’ Store concept to complement their supermarkets, and have acquired forty-nine Blockbuster stores and seven former Jessops units.
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3.7 At the opposite end of the convenience store sector it is clear that the race for space by major superstores in waning. Interest in such sites is now highly selective and retailers are now concentrating more on effective use of existing stores, multi-channel sales and small local outlets as mentioned previously. There is still selective demand for large stores, but typically 4,000 – 6,000 sq m rather than up to 10,000 sq m as had been the case until recently.
On-line Retailing
3.8 Internet spending is a fast growing part of retail expenditure. It is the main element of special forms of trading (SFT), which also includes mail order, telephone sales and markets, all of which are forms of non-store retail expenditure. It reduces the expenditure available to service conventional shop floorspace. 1Experian forecast that non-store comparison retail sales could rise to 20.9% of total comparison spending by 2021, with little increase beyond that, as growth tapers off. This forecast is mainly driven by online sales.
3.9 Experian explain that part of this proportion is associated with shop floorspace (‘click and collect’ for example), so the forecast deduction from total comparison expenditure relating to shop floorspace should be around 15.7% at 2021, for the purpose of assessing future space requirements. For convenience retail sales, the equivalent proportions for 2021 are 15.2% of total convenience spending and a 4.6% reduction in floorspace, where the big difference is probably mainly accounted for by home delivery from existing supermarket shelves. Increased home delivery from warehouses, for both convenience and comparison goods, will continue to affect the requirements for conventional retail floorspace. See also sections 6 and 8.
3.10 Many major multiples now offer both online and store-based shopping with the latter providing an essential platform for viewing the goods before online purchases are made. This multi-channel retailing allows retailers to provide ‘click and collect’ services attracting shoppers into high street shops to pick up and return goods. There is, therefore, still a requirement for physical space from such retailers.
3.11 The British Retail Consortium reports2 that internet non-food sales in December 2013 were 19.2% higher than December 2012. Technology, through the increased use of smartphones and tablets, has contributed to this growth. However, it is worth noting that technology companies with a retail offering recognise the importance of a high street presence
1 Experian Retail Planner- Briefing Note 11, Appendix 3.
2 BRC-KPMG Online Retail Sales Monitor December 2013
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demonstrated, for example, by the Apple stores now found in prime shopping destinations.
3.12 Independent retailers are increasingly offering online shopping too and this can prove very successful for niche and specialist shops. For many small independent retailers though, online shopping poses direct competition, which can only be met by improved quality of offer.
Glasgow retail market
3.13 Glasgow sits at the top of the retail hierarchy and is situated around four miles from the East Dunbartonshire Council area boundary. It remains the second most popular retail destination in the UK after London and also ranks second in terms of turnover. The city continues to stay ahead of competing centres for new retail requirements. Buchanan Street is Scotland’s prime retail destination, achieving prime rents of around £260 per sq ft Zone A and is complemented to the south by St Enoch Centre, which recently changed ownership. The stable rental position in Glasgow illustrates starkly the point about market polarisation; in the wider market rents across Scotland’s top twenty retail centres have fallen by around 30% since the start of the recession as shown in the Ryden Retail Index below (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Ryden Retail Rental Index
3.14 As can been seen in Figure 2, rents have stabilised in 2013 but remain 19% below the 2007 peak, excluding the effects of price inflations. Many occupiers are now trading at rents considerably in excess of current values. This is compounded by non-domestic rates which often are not reflective of
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the letting market, and indeed can make units uneconomic even on reduced rents.
3.15 Glasgow continues to stay ahead of competing centres for new retail requirements demonstrated by the opening of Scotland’s first Forever 21 store within Land Securities’ £70 million Buchanan Quarter development in March 2013. Land Securities has further development planned with planning in principle consent having been secured for an extension to Buchanan Galleries for a £300 million retail and leisure scheme. This is expected to double the volume of retail space and provide restaurants, a cinema and a car park. Marks and Spencer has been signed up as an anchor tenant in a new 13,935 sq m store.
3.16 Outside the city centre, Hammerson has commenced development of its 10,700 sq m extension to Silverburn Shopping Centre comprising a 14- screen cinema, nine restaurants and bingo hall. This follows the recent completion of a leisure extension at the Glasgow Fort, 4,180 sq m in size, accommodating a Vue multiplex cinema and restaurant space let to TGI Friday’s, Prezzo, Harvester, Chiquito and Pizza Express.
3.17 In Renfrewshire, on the outskirts of Glasgow, Intu Properties has plans to expand Braehead Shopping Centre at the cost of £200 million. This will include a new ice skating arena, sports facilities and a 200-bedroom hotel.
3.18 Investment activity within the retail property market has been supressed due to the continuing challenges faced by the retail sector. There is demand for prime retail assets within the major city centres as demonstrated by the recent purchase of 123-129 Buchanan Street, a mixed use retail and office block, by Scottish Widows Investment Partnership for £22.85 million. This particular deal achieved a yield of 5%, and other recent and on-going deals across Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow have also achieved 5% or below, despite cautious rental growth predictions within the retail sector. Buyers are taking the opportunity to secure trophy assets which offer scarcity and therefore viewed as easy to sell on if required.
3.19 Secondary and tertiary locations, by contrast, are heavily discounted both in historic terms and compared to prime locations. Yields are varied, even for retail units in the same pitch, once factors like income security, lease length and occupier demand are factored in.
3.20 In summary, the overall picture is of a gradually improving retail market, in line with the wider economy, although sales are volatile month-to-month and growth is not strong. Major malls are attracting new development but for the large majority of towns the priority will be to stabilise occupancy levels then gradually reduce vacancies, including some diversification away
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from retail and probably involving new leisure operators. Investment has been focused mainly on prime retail locations.
East Dunbartonshire Retail Locations
3.21 The main retail locations within East Dunbartonshire are the town centres of Bearsden, Bishopbriggs, Milngavie and Kirkintilloch, and Strathkelvin Retail Park in Bishopbriggs. These are considered individually in further detail below.
3.22 Bearsden has a range of retail brands represented within the town centre. These include a few national retailers such as Optical Express, Barrhead Travel, Majestic Wine Warehouse, McDonalds, Farmfoods, Vets 4 Pets and M&S Simply Food as well as a selection of independent retailers including Sinclair Pharmacy, Whiz Kids, Golfing House, Quartz Travel and Cutting Edge Hair Design.
Figure 3: Bearsden Cross
3.23 Current Scottish Assessor Association data reports a total of 124 retail properties in Bearsden with only five vacant units, giving a vacancy rate of only 4%.
3.24 Supermarket provision with Bearsden consists of:
Asda at Milngavie Road,
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M & S Simply Food on Drymen Road, Lidl at Baljaffray Shopping Centre, Scotmid on Ledi Drive Co-operative Food Store on Station Road.
3.25 The prime retail pitch in Bearsden is the area known as ‘The Cross’ where Drymen Road and Roman Road meet and includes New Kirk Road.
3.26 Bishopbriggs town centre contains a number of retail brands, including national chains - Boots, Greggs, Superdrug, Subway and Timpson, as well as a range of independent retailers (including M & M Eyecare, Estetica, Thomas Auld & Sons and Glamour Eyes), and retail services including restaurants, cafes and financial and professional services.
Figure 4: Bishopbriggs Town Centre
3.27 Supermarkets in the town are Morrison’s (who purchased the Triangle Shopping Centre in August 2012 and are progressing with plans to redevelop/build a new store), Tesco Express and Asda both on Kirkintilloch Road.
3.28 The prime retail pitch in Bishopbriggs’ town centre is the Triangle Shopping Centre and Kirkintilloch Road.
3.29 Strathkelvin Retail Park, by Bishopbriggs, is owned by Caledonian Property Investments and it has over 24,600 sq m of gross comparison good retailing space.totals 29,100 sq.m. The retailers located here are listed in Appendix 6.
Figure 5: Strathkelvin Retail Park
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3.30 Scottish Assessor Association data reports a total of 98 retail properties in Bishopbriggs with no vacant units.
3.31 Kirkintilloch has a diverse range of retail brands represented in the town centre. These include market staples such as Optical Express, Boots, Poundland, WH Smith, Superdrug, Greggs and Shoe Zone, as well as a wide range of independent retailers (including Sugar Plum, Sun Shack, Cards Direct, Nysa Notions and Bargain Central), along with non-retail services including restaurants, cafes and financial and professional services.
Figure 6: Kirkintilloch Town Centre
3.32 Supermarket provision in the town comprises a Tesco Metro in the Regent Shopping Centre, a Sainsbury’s on Shamrock Street, and Scotmid on Gallowhill Road. Lidl has recently opened a store on the former bus depot site on Milton Road in November 2013.
3.33 Scottish Assessor Association data reports a total of 189 retail properties in Kirkintilloch with 11 vacant units, giving a vacancy rate of only 6%.
3.34 The prime retail pitch in Kirkintilloch is Cowgate, where the Regent Shopping Centre is also located. The Regent Centre was built in 1991 and comprises 21 retail units and a 3,012 sq m supermarket (Tesco).
3.35 Milngavie also has a selection of retail brands represented in the town centre. These include market staples such as M&S Simply Food, Boots, M & CO, Greggs, Costa Coffee, Optical Express, Specsavers, Iceland and Poundstretcher, as well as a wide range of independent retailers (including
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Reids of Milngavie, Lingerie Boutique, Fantoosh Fish, Ruby Red, Foils and Milngavie Bookshop).
Figure 7: Milngavie Town Centre
3.36 Supermarkets in Milngavie consist of:
Scotmid on South Mains Road, Tesco at Gavin’s Mill (which has recently been refurbished after plans to build a Tesco Extra store in the town were shelved in June 2013, From 2014, Waitrose will have a presence with a new store to open just off the Burnbrae roundabout.
3.37 Scottish Assessor Association data reports a total of 79 retail properties in Milngavie with only one vacant unit, giving a vacancy rate of only 1%.
3.38 The prime retail pitches in Milngavie town centre are Main Street and Station Road.
Market Activity 3.39 There are currently five units on the market in Bearsden totalling 272 sq m. Bishopbriggs has eight units totalling 7,690 sq m available (of this 6,819 sq m is part of the redevelopment of the B&Q unit at Strathkelvin Retail Park). Kirkintilloch has 17 retail properties, totalling 3,378 sq m, on the market, and Milngavie has one unit totalling 59 sq m currently available. This is depicted in Figure 8 below:
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Figure 8: Retail Availability
Source: CoStar
3.40 Table 1 identifies notable recent openings and closures of retail outlets in the East Dunbartonshire area. In common with other towns, town centres may be losing some multiple retailers and closures such as Comet, Peacocks and Thomas Cook are not specific to East Dunbartonshire but are national retailer failures affecting many locations. It was recently announced that Nike has taken 929 sq m of retail space at Strathkelvin Retail Park, making the Park fully let.
Table 1: Retail openings and closures Town Location Retailer Date Openings Bishopbriggs Strathkelvin Retail Iceland Jun 2012 Park Next Dec 2011 Frankie & Benny’s Aug 2011 Bearsden Hillfoot Road Vets 4 Pets Spring 2012 Station Road Co-operative Food October 2011 Closures Kirkintilloch Cowgate Happit May 2012 Bishopbriggs Strathkelvin Retail Comet Dec 2012 Park Peacocks Feb 2012 Bearsden Thomas Cook Spring 2013
3.41 Table 2 shows a selection of recent deals from across the Council area. Of these deals, 6 were in Bearsden, 4 in Bishopbriggs, 5 in Kirkintilloch and 4 in Milngavie.
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Table 2: Recent retail transactions in East Dunbartonshire Address Size (sq Comments m) 2 Springfield Road, 58 Let in November 2013 to an undisclosed tenant on a new 10 Bishopbriggs year lease at £15,000 pa (£259 per sq m). 2 Canniesburn Toll, Bearsden 35 Let in October 2013 to Pound Plus (Helensburgh) Ltd on a new 10 year lease at £10,300 pa (£294 per sq m). 67-73 Milgavie Road, 58 Let in October 2013 to Mr Mohammed Iqbal (t/a Shish Bearsden Tandoori) on a new 25 year lease at £11,500 pa (£198 per sq m). 35-37 Douglas Street, 40 Let in September 2013 to an undisclosed tenant on a new Milngavie lease on confidential terms. 1-15 Mugdock Road, 72 Let in September 2013 to Mary Easton ltd (t/a The Dress Shop) Milngavie on a renewed 10 year lease at £9,625 pa (£134 per sq m). Units A-F Lomond Drive, 74 Let in July 2013 to Fiona Hardie on a two year sub-lease at Bishopbriggs £11,000 per annum (£149 per sq m). 161-163 Milngavie Road, 37 Let in July 2013 to Kitchens Direct. Asking rent £14,000 pa. Bearsden 15-19 Cowgate, Kirkintilloch 266 Let in May 2013 to St Margaret of Scotland Hospice at £25,000 pa (£94 per sq m) 157 Kirkintilloch Road, 41 Let in May 2013 to an undisclosed tenant on a ten-year lease Bishopbriggs at £10,000 pa (£244 per sq m) Unit 3, 38 Stewart Street, 39 Let in March 2013 to Susan McMahon t/a The Lingerie Milngavie Boutique on a new five year FRI lease at £10,000 pa (£256 per sq m) Unit 4, 38 Stewart Street, 39 Let in March 2013 to Emily Fotheringham t/a Fotheringham on Milngavie a new five year FRI lease at £10,500 pa (£269 per sq m) 102-166 Drymen Road, 23 Let in January 2013 to Mr G McNab t/a Barbers on a sublease Bearsden expiring in February 2022 at £11,500 pa ((£500 per sq m). 2-4 Freeland Place, 82 Let in Dec 2012 to Sun Shack. Quoting rent was £10,000 pa Kirkintilloch 28-30 Cowgate, Kirkintilloch 133 Let in June 2012 to DEBRA on confidential terms
14 Townhead, Kirkintilloch 54 Let in May 2012 to Cash 4 Clothes on confidential terms
165 Milngavie Road, Bearsden 71 Let in March 2012 to Rettie & Co on a ten-year lease at £15,500 pa (£217 per sq.m. 161-163 Milngavie Road, 37 Let in March 2012 to Liggy’s Cakes on a five-year lease at Bearsden £10,000 pa (£27 per sq.m.). 1 Hillfoot Drive, Bearsden 200 Let in January 2012 to Vets for Pets. The quoting rent was £35,000 pa (£175 per sq.m.) 3 Station Road, Bearsden 334 Let in October 2011 to The Co-Operative Group Ltd on a 15- year lease at £75,000 pa (£224 per sq.m.). Unit 1C Strathkelvin Retail 929 Let in September 2011 to Next Retail on a 10 year lease at Park, Bishopbriggs £145,000 pa (£156 per sq.m.). 37 Eastside, Kirkintilloch 46 Let in June 2011 to Desiree on a one-year lease at £6,000 pa (£130 per sq.m.). Source : CoStar
3.42 Investment transactions provide one indicator of property market interest and confidence. Following the property market crash, only six investment transactions have been recorded in the region since 2010, including those shown in Table 3 below.
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Table 3: Investment Transactions Address Size Comments (sq m) 3 Station Road, Bearsden 334 Sold in February 2012 to a private investor for £1.15m, reflecting a net initial yield of 6.1%. The property is let to Co-operative Group Food Limited. 56 Drymen Road, 49 Sold in August 2011 to Trygort (2) Ltd for £242,500, reflecting a net initial Bearsden yield of 6.64%. The property is let to Dignity Funerals Ltd. 54-56 Cowgate, 350 Sold in June 2012 to Gilpak Ltd by a private investor for £416,000, reflecting Kirkintilloch a net initial yield of 7.91%. The property is let to Lloyds Pharmacy Ltd. 95 Main Street, 44 Sold in April 2010 to Mr R Lovat by Clydesdale Bank plc for £23,500 Lennoxtown Source: CoStar
Retail Rents 3.43 Retail rents in East Dunbartonshire vary across the town centres as detailed in the table below:
Table 4: Retail rents in East Dunbartonshire Town Rent Values (per sq m) Bearsden £198 to £500 Bishopbriggs £149 to £259 Kirkintilloch £94 - £130 Milngavie £134 - £269 Source: CoStar
Retailer Requirements 3.44 Retailer requirements to locate in towns and commercial centres provide an important indicator of market demand. Since the market downturn in 2008 however, many retailers are no longer actively seeking new premises, or are being extremely selective. Where retailers are looking for premises, many simply have blanket requirements covering whole regions rather than specific requirements for named centres. These factors complicate any assessment of demand based upon retailer requirements.
3.45 According to one data source which tracks requirements over time Kirkintilloch had a high of 12 retailer requirements in 2004 and this has fallen to the current three requirements. Bishopbriggs had a high of 11 retailer requirements in 2006 and this has fallen to none, likewise Bearsden had highs of 11 retailer requirements in 2006/2007 and this has also fallen to none.
3.46 A panel of data sources used for this study records a total of 13 different retail requirements throughout East Dunbartonshire totalling between 2,347 – 6,511 sq.m. Table 5 below shows these requirements.
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Table 5: Retail Requirements Sector No of Size of Town(s) Pitch reqs requirement (sq.m gross.) Retailers Household goods 1 209 - 325 Kirkintilloch High Street or shopping centre Supermarkets 3 900-1,500 Milngavie, Town centre or edge-of-centre (discounter) 900-1,500 Bearsden, 900-1,500 Kirkintilloch Total retail 4 2,909-4,825 Non-retail services Restaurants / café/ 8 1,006 – 1,212 Kirkintilloch Prime or good secondary, corner site preferred. High Street, parade bars Bishopbriggs, or edge of town shopping. Close to Bearsden, retail / business / transport hubs. Edge of town, in town,out of town. Milngavie High Street or secondary parade. Car parts / motor 1 232 - 465 Bearsden Edge of town factors Total service 9
3.47 In addition to these retailer requirements in Table 5, there are two fast food operators looking for franchises throughout the country but with no specific towns named.
3.48 A further 11 nationwide retailers have requirements (which include non- specifically named requirements for Scotland). Of these requirements two are for supermarkets; three are for restaurants / café/ bars; one is for household goods; one is for clothing, two are for pharmacy/health & beauty; and two are for discount retailers.
Conclusions 3.49 Slow growth in the retail sector has resulted in development being primarily restricted to prime locations. With the food sector, the development of superstores has been declining but there is significant activity within the convenience store sub-sector.
3.50 Occupancy levels in East Dunbartonshire are high with a diverse range of brands represented, despite the close proximity to Glasgow. However, the loss of retailers due to business failures and contracting national multiples has had an impact on the town centres.
3.51 There have been a number of retail property market transactions completed across the four towns. The vast majority of this activity has been occupier related with only a handful of investment deals being
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completed. This reflects the fact that investment activity within the retail sector is limited outside of prime retail locations such as Glasgow city centre.
3.52 Letting activity is generally for small units and rental values vary across the area from a low of £94 per sq m in Kirkintilloch to £500 per sq m in Bearsden.
3.53 Latent demand from multiple retailers is weak; towns are more likely to depend upon regional and local retailers, and complementary commercial uses moving forward into the next LDP period.
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4.0 Retail catchment areas and population
Introduction
4.1 This section shows the study area of East Dunbartonshire, subdivided into primary retail catchment areas based on the main towns, together with the current and projected populations of the catchments to 2016 and 2021 in accordance with the study brief.
Convenience catchment areas and population
4.2 Map 4.1 illustrates the primary catchment areas relating to Bearsden, Milngavie, Bishopbriggs, Kirkintilloch and the Northern Villages. These are the same areas as applied in the 2009 Retail Capacity Study. They comprise groups of postcode sectors which almost match the Council area boundary, but not exactly (although with the same total population from the old 2001 Census). Experian show a slight change in the postcode sector boundaries that extend into the Campsie Hills within the Council area, but this makes no difference as the extension contains no population. These five areas are defined as zones in the recent household survey for this study.
4.3 Table 4.1 shows the current and projected populations of the five convenience catchment areas, incorporating the 2011 Census findings and applying the 2010 based population projections by the Registrar General to 2021, as explained in the table footnote. Slight population decline is projected over the period.
Comparison catchment areas and population
4.4 Map 4.2 illustrates the two primary comparison catchment areas in East Dunbartonshire from the study brief. These relate to the areas within East Dunbartonshire defined by the old Structure Plan Technical Report TR7/06 (2006). The two comparison catchment areas include: (1) Bearsden/ Milngavie and (2) Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages. The areas equate to the sum of the relevant convenience catchments. In the 2009 Capacity Study, the analysis of comparison expenditure capacity focussed on the Council area only.
4.5 Table 4.2 shows the current and projected populations of the two comparison catchment areas, drawing on the same sources as applied to the convenience catchment populations.
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Map 4.1 Convenience Retail Catchment Areas (Study Zones)
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Map 4.2 Comparison Retail Catchment Areas (2) (Bearsden/Milngavie) and (Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages)
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Table 4.1 East Dunbartonshire convenience catchment areas: population projections
Catchment areas 2001 ***2011 2013 2016 2021 (survey zones) Census Census based
Zone 1 Bearsden G61-1,G61-2, G61-3,G61-4 27,967 27,136 27,025 26,803 26,378 Zone 2 Milngavie G62-6,G62-7,*G62-8 13,846 13,434 13,380 13,270 13,059 Zone 3 Bishopbriggs G64-1,G64-2,G64-3 23,384 22,689 22,596 22,411 22,055 Zone 4 Kirkintilloch **G65-9,G66-1,G66-2, 31,424 30,490 30,366 30,116 29,639 G66-3,G66-4,**G66-5 Zone 5 Northern Villages G64-4,G66-7,G66-8 11,622 11,277 11,231 11,138 10,962 Total survey area 108,243 105,026 104,597 103,738 102,093 Note: * Postcode Sector G62-8: data included for part in E Dunbartonshire. Part in Stirling Council area is negligible ** Postcode Sector G65-9: data included for part in E Dunbartonshire (Tw echar) and G66-5- part in E Dunbartonshire only. ***Population change from 2001 to 2011 based on the recent Census 2011 release for E Dunbartonshire 2,001 2,011 2,013 2,016 2,021 E Dunbartonshire Council Area Census Census 108,243 105,026 RG 2010 based population projections 104,380 103,954 103,100 101,465 Period 2011-13 2013-16 2016-21 Change 0.9959 0.9918 0.9841 Applied to 2011 Census population 104,597 103,738 102,093
Table 4.2 East Dunbartonshire comparison catchment areas: population projections
2001 2011 2013 2016 2021 Catchment areas Census Census based
Bearsden/ Milngavie (Zones 1 & 2) 41,813 40,570 40,405 40,073 39,437 Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ N Villages (Zones 3,4,5) 66,430 64,456 64,193 63,665 62,656 Total survey area 108,243 105,026 104,597 103,738 102,093 Sources: as Table 4.1
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5.0 Household survey
Introduction
5.1 The telephone interview survey (1,000) covered the area embracing the five zones representing the convenience catchment areas defined on Map 4.1. These zones comprise the groups of postcode sectors shown in Table 4.1, together with their populations.
5.2 Appendix 1 contains a list of the questions asked by the structured questionnaire, together with the interview quotas by zone, which were in proportion to the population of each zone. Interviews were conducted by randomly generated selection of telephone numbers within each zone. The output tables produced by RMG Clarity Market Research Ltd, together with the associated questionnaire, are provided as separate documents to accompany this report.
5.3 The household survey provides the best means of estimating the retail expenditure flows into, and out of, the catchment areas shown on Maps 4.1 and 4.2, by the residents of East Dunbartonshire.
Survey findings
5.4 The following graphs and commentary refer to the most frequent responses to the questionnaire on issues relating to shopping patterns. Also included in the questionnaire are questions on usage and perceptions of the town centres as places to visit, and questions on the evening economy. These are available for separate use by the Council, as they are not central to the retail capacity study.
5.5 For the full list of responses, reference needs to be made to the RMG Clarity Research tabulations. Furthermore, the percentages shown in the graphs and script of this report excludes those respondents who said don’t know/ varies, don’t buy, internet and mail order- since the focus is on the relative attraction to floorspace in centres/stores. Internet spending on the different categories of goods is highlighted separately.
Most visited stores for main food shopping
5.6 The most popular superstores and supermarkets for main food shopping are identified on the graphs overleaf: Bearsden residents: Asda at Bearsden is the predominant attraction, followed by Tesco in Milngavie. Morrisons at Crow Road, Glasgow and M&S in Milngavie are also identified, but in lesser proportions; Milngavie residents: Tesco in Milngavie is identified by nearly 71% of the respondents, followed by ASDA at Bearsden;
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Main food shopping and mode of travel
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Bishopbriggs residents: similar proportions (about 40% each), most often visit Morrisons and Asda at Bishopbriggs. Smaller proportions visit Asda at Robroyston and Tesco at St Rollox; Kirkintilloch residents: Tesco and Sainsbury’s at Kirkintilloch are the main destinations; and Northern Villages: the most visited stores for main food shopping include M&S at Strathkelvin Retail Park, Sainsbury’s at Kirkintilloch, ASDA at Bishopbriggs and Tesco at Kirkintilloch, with a more even spread of destinations compared to the other catchments.
Mode of travel to main food destination
5.7 The graph on the previous page shows that about 76% of shoppers went to their most visited foodstore by car, with 12% walking and 8% travelling by bus. These findings reveal the continued primacy of the car for main food shopping trips.
Main centres for clothing and fashion
5.8 The graphs overleaf show the most popular destinations for comparison goods shopping by category. Residents of the Milngavie/ Bearsden catchment mostly visit Glasgow City Centre (59%) for clothing and fashion, followed by Braehead (18%). Only 4% identified Milngavie town centre as their main destination. In the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages catchment, residents identified Glasgow City Centre as their main destination (69%), followed by Strathkelvin Retail Park (9%).
Main centres for furniture, floorcoverings and furnishings
5.9 Residents of the Milngavie/ Bearsden catchment mostly visit Glasgow City Centre (47%) for furniture and furnishings, followed by Braehead (11%) and Clydebank (11%). In the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages catchment, residents identified Glasgow City Centre as their main destination (39%), followed by Strathkelvin Retail Park (34%).
Main centres for domestic appliances
5.10 Glasgow City Centre (26%) followed by Great Western Retail Park (19%) were identified by residents of the Milngavie/ Bearsden catchment as their most visited centres for buying domestic appliances. In the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages catchment, residents identified Strathkelvin Retail Park as their main destination (71%), followed by Glasgow City Centre (14%).
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Main destinations for comparison goods shopping
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Main centres for DIY/hardware
5.11 Great Western Retail Park (36%) followed by other local shops in Milngavie (14%) and Strathkelvin Retail Park (13%) were identified by residents of the Milngavie/ Bearsden catchment as their most visited centres for buying DIY and hardware. In the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages catchment, residents identified Strathkelvin Retail Park as their main destination (85%), followed by local shops in Bishopbriggs (3%). Strathkelvin Retail Park is the overwhelming destination in terms of popularity.
Main centres for personal goods
5.12 Residents of the Milngavie/ Bearsden catchment mostly visit Glasgow City Centre (47%) for personal goods, followed by Milngavie town centre (14%) and Braehead (11%). In the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages catchment, residents identified Glasgow City Centre as their main destination (54%), followed by Strathkelvin Retail Park (18%).
Internet and mail order shopping
5.13 Use of the internet and mail order shopping was not a specific question, but the survey recorded where respondents identified the internet and mail
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order in their responses to the questions by type of goods. These forms of shopping are known as special forms of trading (SFT) - see section 3. Use of the internet and mail order accounted for significant proportions of shopping for personal goods and domestic appliances by residents of East Dunbartonshire, but otherwise the proportions are relatively low for other goods categories, as indicated by the graph. The current 3UK proportion of SFT is 12.3% for all retail goods.
5.14 In the analysis for the capacity study, the proportions of SFT are based on national forecasts, including allowance for increasing proportions of internet spending in the future. These sources on SFT will be more reliable than the survey based findings, which are not applied for this reason.
5.15 The survey findings on the shopping patterns by goods type are combined to show the patterns for all convenience goods and all comparison goods in the following sections.
3 Experian Retail Planner, Briefing Note 11, 2013- page 19
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6.0 Convenience expenditure and turnover
Introduction
6.1 The analysis examines the relationships between expenditure and turnover for each of the five catchment areas and for the Council area as a whole. It incorporates the shopping patterns from the household survey, which reveal the expenditure inflows and outflows from each catchment. All values are expressed in constant 2012 prices.
Forecast convenience expenditure potential
6.2 Table 6.1 shows the forecast expenditure per capita data for East Dunbartonshire, based on data commissioned from Experian for this study. These forecasts take account of the socio economic structure of the area, with UK based forecasts of change by Experian to 2016 and 2021 applied. Account is taken of the current economic conditions and assessment of various trend projections, which together represent Experian’s ‘central case forecasts’.
6.3 Special forms of trading (SFT), including internet shopping, are removed from the expenditure per capita data, so that it relates to conventional shop floorspace, as shown in Table 6.1. The proportion of SFT is projected to increase up to 2021- see section 3. It should be noted that the proportions of SFT shown in this table do not include internet home delivery coming from existing supermarket shelves.
Table 6.1 Convenience expenditure per capita forecasts for East Dunbartonshire (in 2012 prices)
2011 2013 2016 2021 £ £ £ Expenditure per capita E Dunbartonshire 2,235 2,210 2,219 2,317 excluding special forms of trading 2,192 2,154 2,148 2,211 Note: The figure for 2011 is from Experian data commissioned for East Dunbartonshire for this study. The orignal figure w as £2,152 in 2011 prices. This has been converted to 2012 prices by a factor of 1.03850 from Experian Retail Planner, Briefing Note 11, Appendix 4b. UK grow th rates are applied, from Appendix 4a- see below . £ £ £ £ UK convenience spend per capita in 2010 prices 1813.7 1793.2 1801.2 1880.5 Less: special forms of trading- internet etc -1.9% -2.5% -3.2% -4.6% From Experian Retail Planner, Briefing Note 11, central case convenience expenditure grow th forecast, Appendix 4a. The deductions for special forms of trading are from Appendix 3, page 19
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6.4 Forecasts of the total convenience expenditure potential of the residents of each catchment area are shown in Table 6.2. They dip slightly in 2016, rising again to almost the same totals in 2021 as currently.
Table 6.2 Convenience expenditure potential of the residents of each catchment area (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021 Catchment areas £million £million £million
Zone 1 Bearsden 58.2 57.6 58.3 Zone 2 Milngavie 28.8 28.5 28.9 Zone 3 Bishopbriggs 48.7 48.1 48.8 Zone 4 Kirkintilloch 65.4 64.7 65.5 Zone 5 Northern Villages 24.2 23.9 24.2 East Dunbartonshire 225.3 222.9 225.7 Note From Table 4.1 and Table 6.1. Excludes special forms of trading, including internet spending.
Market shares by catchment area
6.5 Market shares refer to the proportions of expenditure from residents of a defined area which is spent in that area and in other areas. Table 6.3 shows the convenience market shares for each catchment area, based on the household survey. Details of how the patterns for main food shopping and top-up shopping from the survey questions are combined to represent all convenience shopping are provided in Appendix 2.
6.6 Table 6.3 shows that 55% of the residents of the Bearsden catchment do their convenience shopping locally, with 25% going to Milngavie and 20% to locations outside East Dunbartonshire. Some 76% of residents of the Milngavie catchment do their shopping in the area and 18% in Bearsden, with only 6% using stores outside the Council area. The table indicates a significant interrelationship between Bearsden and Milngavie, but a minimal attraction for residents of these two catchments to stores in the remaining catchment areas.
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Table 6.3 Where residents of each catchment area do their convenience shopping (market shares)
Origin- catchment areas Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Total East Destination Dunbartonshire Bearsden 55% 18% 0% 1% 3% 17% Milngavie 25% 76% 0% 1% 5% 17% Bishopbriggs 0% 0% 83% 24% 42% 29% Kirkintilloch 0% 0% 1% 56% 29% 19% Northern Villages 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 1% Outside E Dunbartonshire 20% 6% 15% 18% 12% 16% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Note Based on the household survey results for main food shopping and top-up shopping, w eighted to show the composite for all convenience shopping. Details are provided in Appendix 2. Percentages are rounded.
6.7 In the Bishopriggs catchment, the retained convenience expenditure is very high at 83%, with most of the balance going to stores outside East Dunbartonshire, but only 1% using Kirkintilloch. The survey indicates that 56% of the residents of Kirkintilloch do their convenience shopping locally, with 24% going to Bishopbriggs and 18% to stores outside the Council area. In the Northern Villages, only 9% of convenience shopping is retained, with most going to Bishopbriggs (42%) and Kirkintilloch (29%). The table indicates very little current attraction to Bearsden and Milngavie from residents of the other catchment areas for convenience shopping.
Convenience expenditure and turnover in the catchment areas
6.8 The relationship between total expenditure and turnover in each catchment is defined simply as: residents’ expenditure potential plus inflows, less outflows equals total turnover.
6.9 Appendix 3 shows the estimates of expenditure inflows to each catchment in detail, based on the household survey and application of the 2008 based NSLSP data for inflows from outside East Dunbartonshire. The outflows are derived from the current household survey.
6.10 Tables 6.4 to 6.9 show the survey based convenience expenditure and turnover relationships for each catchment area and for East Dunbartonshire in 2013, 2016 and 2021. High inflows to stores in the Bearsden and Milngavie catchments from outside East Dunbartonshire are evident (mainly to Asda and Tesco). Also, high inflows to stores in the Milngavie catchment and the Bishopbriggs catchment from the rest of East Dunbartonshire are also evident, which
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Table 6.4 Bearsden catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices) Zone 1 Bearsden catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021 % £million £million £million Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 58.2 57.6 58.3 Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 11% 6.6 6.5 6.6 inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 29% 16.9 16.7 16.9 Less: outflows -45% -26.3 -26.1 -26.4 Turnover 55.3 54.7 55.4 Note From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
Table 6.5 Milngavie catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices) Zone 2 Milngavie catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021 % £million £million £million Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 28.8 28.5 28.9 Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 57% 16.4 16.2 16.4 inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 33% 9.6 9.5 9.6 Less: outflows -24% -7.0 -6.9 -7.0 Turnover 47.8 47.2 47.8 Note From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
Table 6.6 Bishopbriggs catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices) Zone 3 Bishopbriggs catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021 % £million £million £million Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 48.7 48.1 48.8 Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 53% 25.7 25.4 25.7 inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 16% 8.0 7.9 8.0 Less: outflows -17% -8.1 -8.0 -8.1 Turnover 74.2 73.4 74.3 Note From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
Table 6.7 Kirkintilloch catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices) Zone 4 Kirkintilloch catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021 % £million £million £million Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 65.4 64.7 65.5 Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 11% 7.3 7.3 7.3 inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 4% 2.8 2.8 2.8 Less: outflows -44% -28.7 -28.4 -28.7 Turnover 46.9 46.4 47.0 Note From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
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Table 6.8 Northern Villages catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices) Zone 5 Northern Villages catchment: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021 % £million £million £million Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 24.2 23.9 24.2 Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 Less: outflows -91% -22.0 -21.8 -22.1 Turnover 2.3 2.2 2.3 Note From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
Table 6.9 East Dunbartonshire: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices) East Dunbartonshire: convenience expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021 % £million £million £million Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 225.3 222.9 225.7 Add: inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 17% 37.2 36.8 37.3 Less: outflows -16% -36.1 -35.7 -36.1 Turnover 226.5 224.0 226.8 Note From Table 6.2 and Appendix 3
reflect the interrelationship with their respective neighbouring catchments. For similar reasons, there are very high outflows from the Bearsden, Kirkintilloch and Northern Villages catchment areas. The overall inflows and outflows from East Dunbartonshire as a whole are almost in balance. In fact the current outflow of 16% is slightly less than the outflow of 17.8% estimated in the 2009 Capacity Study for 2008. There was no quoted inflow in the previous Study.
Convenience floorspace and turnover in 2013
6.11 The current distribution of convenience floorspace in East Dunbartonshire and in the five catchments is shown in Table 6.10, based on data provided by the Council from their 2012 floorspace survey and sorted by the consultants for this study. The current total of 25,094 sq m net compares to the total of 24,645 sq m net in the 2009 Capacity Study. Average company turnover/ floorspace ratios from the Retail Rankings 2013 are applied, with adjustments to include VAT and remove petrol/ non- retail sales, expressed in 2012 prices. These ratios are applied to the main supermarkets, with estimated average ratios applied to other shops. Table 6.10 shows the total average turnover in each catchment at average levels, based on this method.
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Table 6.10 East Dunbartonshire convenience floorspace and turnover at average and actual levels from the survey in 2013 (in 2012 prices)
Floorspace sq m Turnover Turnover gross net £ per sq m £million Zone 1 Bearsden Town Centre 885 595 5.1 M&S Simply Food (total 636 sq m gross) 636 445 10,234 4.6 Other town centre shops 249 149 3,900 0.6 (1) ASDA, Milngavie Rd (total 9,535 sq m gross- 60% conv) 5,721 3,433 12,055 41.4 Lidl, Baljafray (total 894 sq m gross-90% conv) 805 603 4,045 2.4 Other Bearsden out of centre shops 2,286 1,372 3,100 4.3 Total at average levels 9,697 6,002 53.2 Over-trading 4% 2.1 Total from survey (actual levels) 55.3 Zone 2 Milngavie Town Centre 7,112 4,411 38.9 Tesco- Gavin's Mill Rd (total 5,539 sq m gross 73% conv) 4,043 2,426 10,209 24.8 M&S Simply Food (total 1,590 sq m gross 90% conv) 1,431 1,002 10,234 10.3 Other town centre shops 1,638 983 3,900 3.8 Other Milngavie shops 887 532 3,100 1.6 Total at average levels 7,999 4,943 40.5 Over-trading 18% 7.3 Total from survey (actual levels) 47.8 Zone 3 Bishopriggs Town Centre 3,722 1,890 21.8 Morrisons, The Triangle (3,815 sq m gross-90% conv) 3,434 1,717 12,289 21.1 Other town centre shops 288 173 3,900 0.7 ASDA Kirkintilloch Road (total 6,104 sq m gross-70% conv) 4,273 2,564 12,055 30.9 M&S Simply Food, Strathk R Park (1,880 sq m gross-90% conv) 1,692 1,184 10,234 12.1 Tesco Express, Kirkintilloch Rd 329 247 15,945 3.9 Other Bishopriggs out of centre shops 2,388 1,433 3,100 4.4 Total at average levels 12,403 7,317 73.2 Over-trading 1% 1.1 Total from survey (actual levels) 74.2 Zone 4 Kirkintilloch Town Centre 7,402 4,441 40.7 Tesco- Regent Centre (total 3,012 sq m gross-95% conv) 2,861 1,717 10,209 17.5 Sainsbury's,Shamrock St (total 3,668 sq m gross 85% conv) 3,118 1,871 10,606 19.8 Other town centre shops 1,423 854 3,900 3.3 Other Kirkintilloch shops 1,170 702 3,100 2.2 Lenzie 1,036 622 3,100 1.9 Twechar 131 79 3,100 0.2 Total at average levels 9,739 5,844 45.0 Over-trading 4% 1.8 Total from survey (actual levels) 46.9 Zone 5 Lennoxtown 1,165 699 3,100 2.2 Milton of Campsie 242 145 3,100 0.5 Torrance 240 144 3,100 0.4 Total at average levels 1,647 988 3.1 Under-trading -26% -0.8 Total from survey (actual levels) 2.3 Total East Dunbartonshire 41,486 25,094 215.0 Over-trading 5% 11.5 Total from survey (actual levels) 226.5 Note Gross floorspace provided by the Council, based on the Assessor- 2012 (1) The total gross floorspace of ASDA is 11,246 sq m (Assessor). In this table, the loading bay area (1,711 sq m) has been excluced. Net floorspace- estimates by R MacLean. Estimate for Tesco Milngavie from PPC.
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6.12 Comparison with the survey based totals (actual turnover) is included for each catchment in Table 6.10, to indicate where there is any over or under- trading. From the table, the total over-trading in East Dunbartonshire is modest at £11.5 million. In the 2009 Capacity Study, the total over-trading was estimated at £4.69 million in 2007 prices, or about £6 million in 2012 prices. Within East Dunbartonshire, the Milngavie catchment is over-trading by 18%. Elsewhere, the over-trading is very low, which suggests that the stores and centres are trading at close to average levels generally. The Northern Villages is an exception, where substantial under-trading is shown. However the local floorspace is very small and household surveys tend to understate the turnover of small shops.
6.13 On a technical point, there is there is no widely agreed benchmark for determining any over/ under-trading. Some consultants ignore the subject and rely on the survey based ratios only, although there are issues related to accuracy at the individual store level and also consistency in the treatment of turnover of new development proposals. Others apply average turnover ratios for the strictly convenience floorspace in supermarkets estimated by Verdict and other agencies, as the split by convenience/ comparison is not published in the Retail Rankings. These external estimates are mostly higher than the average ratios published in the Retail Rankings, which relate to food and non-food sales combined.
6.14 The weakness of relying on the very high estimated average turnover ratios for convenience floorspace only, is that it fails to recognise that the supermarket operators are often content to trade at lower than these levels in many areas. The approach adopted in this study is to apply the average turnover ratio for supermarkets (food and non-food combined) based on the Retail Rankings, as the convenience turnover ratio. It is a compromise that goes some way towards meeting market reality, while retaining the all- important benchmarks for estimating the turnover of new proposals.
Convenience retail planning commitments
6.15 Table 6.11 shows the current retail planning consents for major new convenience retail developments. The net increase in convenience floorspace in the Morrisons consent is not large, but there is some uncertainty associated with implementation of the consent. The Lidl in Kirkintilloch has recently opened. The Waitrose consent at Milngavie is by far the largest addition, with an estimated convenience turnover of some £23 million.
6.16 Table 6.12 shows the estimated pattern of trade diversion to the commitments for this Capacity Study. The trade draw to Waitrose will be wide, and the associated pattern of trade diversion reflects this situation, as also indicated in the supporting retail assessment for the application.
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6.17 The proposed Morrisons extension would also have a wide trade draw, as it is assumed to be similar to the existing floorspace. The trade diversion to Lidl is likely to be more localised, given the scale and nature of the store. The estimates of trade diversion for the commitments also take account of the existing shopping patterns in Table 6.3. Shops in the Northern Villages catchment are unlikely to be affected by the commitments. It is more likely that some shoppers from that area who use Bishopbriggs and Kirkintilloch would switch to the commitments, thereby contributing to the trade diversion from stores in those two catchments.
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Table 6.11 East Dunbartonshire convenience planning commitments (in 2012 prices)
Floorspace sq m Turnover Turnover gross net £ per sq m £million
Morrisons, Bishopriggs (existing) 3,815 sq total-90% conv 3,434 1,717 12,289 21.1 * Expanded store (total 5,962 sq m gross- 75% conv) 4,472 2,236 12,289 27.5 Difference (additional convenience floorspace) 1,038 519 6.4
Lidl, Kirkintilloch (total 1,644 sq m gross- 85% conv) 1,397 1,093 4,045 4.4
Waitrose, Milngavie (total 3,375 sq m gross-85% conv) 2,869 1,975 11,627 23.0
Total 33.8 Note: Source of gross floorspace totals- Council. Lidl opened in late Nov 2013 Turnover ratios derive from the Retail Rankings 2013 * Consent for the expansion of Morrisons w as granted on appeal, but no consent for the proposed petrol filling station (pfs). So there is uncertainty over the timescale for any implemenation in the circumstances.
Table 6.12 Estimated pattern of trade diversion to the convenience planning commitments (in 2012 prices)
Waitrose Morrisons ext. Lidl Trade diversion from: Zone1 Bearsden 20% 0% 0% Zone 2 Milngavie 35% 0% 0% Zone 3 Bishopbriggs 12% 55% 20% Zone 4 Kirkintilloch 3% 15% 80% Zone 5 Northern Villages 0% 0% 0% Stores outside E Dunbartonshire 30% 30% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% £million £million £million Turnover of commitment 23.0 6.4 4.4 Note Total turnover from previous table. The patterns of trade diversion are broad brush estimates. Where 0% is show n, this means very small/ negligible rather than none at all. The pattern of diversion to Waitrose relates to that in the supporting RIA. Account is also taken of the survey based shopping patterns in Table 6.3
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7.0 Spare convenience expenditure capacity
Introduction
7.1 This section provides estimates of the spare convenience retail expenditure capacity that could service new retail floorspace in East Dunbartonshire, including each of the five primary catchment areas identified in this study. The forecasts of spare capacity are for the period 2013-16 and for the eight year period 2013-21, after allowing for the existing planning commitments.
Definition
7.2 The planning context for defining spare capacity is the level of new retail development that can be accommodated without threatening the vitality and viability of established town centres. Spare retail capacity can exist in the following forms:
Any current over-trading Growth in retained expenditure (turnover) Potential to claw back expenditure leakage from the primary catchment Potential to attract new trade into the primary catchment ‘Acceptable’ levels of impact
7.3 A range of spare capacity can be prepared from these components, showing a low and high estimate, after deducting planning commitments. The low estimate includes any over-trading and the forecast growth in expenditure in the catchments over the target periods. The high estimate also includes the potential to claw back leakage and attract new trade into the catchments. Provision of a range of spare capacity normally reduces the need for sensitivity tests. However, the high estimate cannot reasonably be applied for East Dunbartonshire, as explained in the following paragraphs.
7.4 ‘Acceptable’ levels of retail impact refer to the situation where new developments would not threaten the vitality and viability of established centres. By convention, this aspect is not usually embraced into capacity studies, because it is normally addressed by retail impact assessments in support of specific retail planning applications. The Council would then assess whether the retail impacts are ‘acceptable’ in terms of their effects on the vitality and viability of town centres.
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Spare convenience expenditure capacity
7.5 Tables 7.1 to 7.6 show the forecast spare convenience expenditure for each of the five catchment areas and for the Council area in total. The tables only include capacity defined at the low end of the range. For estimates at the high end of the range to apply, there would have to be potential to accommodate a large supermarket or superstore which would be capable of reducing leakage and attracting significant trade from beyond the catchment areas.
7.6 A large store development would also generate significant additional trade diversion locally. All the tables indicate negative capacity after trade diversion to the commitments, meaning that they will be trading at below average levels, therefore unlikely to accommodate much additional trade diversion to support further retail development.
Conclusions
7.7 There is no spare convenience expenditure to support additional major retail floorspace in the five catchment areas for the next eight years from the current over-trading and projected expenditure growth, after taking account of the planning commitments. In the circumstances, there is little prospect of significant claw-back of leakage or attraction of new trade either, because a large foodstore is needed to achieve that. Some minor unit developments may potentially be serviced by retail impact on the existing stores and commitments. Where relevant, new convenience retail proposals would have to be justified by retail impact assessments.
7.8 The conclusions on forecast spare capacity are fairly consistent with the limited current market interest in section 3, where requirements by discount foodstore operators have been identified.
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Table 7.1 Bearsden catchment: forecast spare convenience expenditure capacity (in 2012 prices)
Components of spare capacity 2013-16 2013-21 £million £million (a) Current over- trading (Table 6.10) 2.1 2.1 (b) Retained expenditure growth (turnover grow th in Table 6.4- from 2013-6 and from 2013-21) -0.6 0.1 (c) Less: convenience planning consents Waitrose trade diversion: estimate 20% of £23 million turnover -4.6 -4.6 Total spare capacity after commitments (a+b-c) -3.1 -2.4 Note (figures are rounded)
Table 7.2 Milngavie catchment: forecast spare convenience expenditure capacity (in 2012 prices)
Components of spare capacity 2013-16 2013-21 £million £million (a) Current over- trading (Table 6.10) 7.3 7.3 (b) Retained expenditure growth (turnover grow th in Table 6.5- from 2013-6 and from 2013-21) -0.5 0.1 (c) Less: convenience planning consents Waitrose trade diversion: estimate 35% of £23 million turnover -8.0 -8.0 Total spare capacity after commitments (a+b-c) -1.3 -0.7 Note (figures are rounded)
Table 7.3 Bishopbriggs catchment: forecast spare convenience expenditure capacity (in 2012 prices)
Components of spare capacity 2013-16 2013-21 £million £million (a) Current over- trading (Table 6.10) 1.1 1.1 (b) Retained expenditure growth (turnover grow th in Table 6.6- from 2013-6 and from 2013-21) -0.8 0.1 (c) Less: convenience planning consents Waitrose trade diversion: estimate 12% of £23 million turnover -2.8 -2.8 Lidl trade diversion: estimate 20% of £4.4million turnover -0.9 -0.9 Morrisons extension: estimate 55% of £6.4 million turnover -3.5 -3.5 Total spare capacity after commitments (a+b-c) -6.9 -6.0 Note (figures are rounded)
Table 7.4 Kirkintilloch catchment: forecast spare convenience expenditure capacity (in 2012 prices)
Components of spare capacity 2013-16 2013-21 £million £million (a) Current over- trading (Table 6.10) 1.8 1.8 (b) Retained expenditure growth (turnover grow th in Table 6.7- from 2013-6 and from 2013-21) -0.5 0.1 (c) Less: convenience planning consents Waitrose trade diversion: estimate 3% of £23 million turnover -0.7 -0.7 Lidl trade diversion: estimate 80% of £4.4million turnover -3.5 -3.5 Morrisons extension: estimate 15% of £6.4 million turnover -1.0 -1.0 Total spare capacity after commitments (a+b-c) -3.9 -3.3 Note (figures are rounded)
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Table 7.5 Northern Villages catchment: forecast spare convenience expenditure capacity (in 2012 prices)
Components of spare capacity 2013-16 2013-21 £million £million (a) Current under- trading (Table 6.10) -0.8 -0.8 (b) Retained expenditure growth (turnover grow th in Table 6.8- from 2013-6 and from 2013-21) 0.0 0.0 (c) Less: convenience planning consents Waitrose trade diversion: negligible Lidl trade diversion: negligible Morrisons extension: negligible Total spare capacity after commitments (a+b-c) -0.8 -0.8 Note (figures are rounded)
Table 7.6 E Dunbartonshire: forecast spare convenience expenditure capacity (in 2012 prices)
Components of spare capacity 2013-16 2013-21 £million £million (a) Current over- trading (Table 6.10) 11.5 11.5 (b) Retained expenditure growth (turnover grow th in Table 6.9- from 2013-6 and from 2013-21) -2.5 0.3 (c) Less: convenience planning consents Waitrose trade diversion: estimate 70% of £23 million turnover -16.1 -16.1 Lidl trade diversion: estimate 100% of £4.4million turnover -4.4 -4.4 Morrisons extension: estimate 70% of £6.4 million turnover -4.5 -4.5 Total spare capacity after commitments (a+b-c) -15.9 -13.1 Note (figures are rounded)
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8.0 Comparison expenditure and turnover
Introduction
8.1 The analysis examines the relationships between expenditure and turnover for both the comparison catchment areas, and for the Council area as a whole. It incorporates the shopping patterns from the household survey, with some adjustments, which then indicate the expenditure inflows and outflows from each catchment.
Forecast comparison expenditure potential
8.2 Table 8.1 shows the forecast expenditure per capita for East Dunbartonshire, based on data commissioned from Experian for this study. As described in the section on convenience expenditure, these forecasts take account of the socio economic structure of the area, with UK based forecasts of change by Experian to 2016 and 2021 applied. Account is taken of the current economic conditions and assessment of various trend projections, which together represent Experian’s ‘central case forecasts’ for comparison expenditure.
8.3 Special forms of trading (SFT), including internet shopping, are removed from the expenditure per capita data, so that it relates to conventional shop floorspace, as shown in Table 8.1. The proportion of SFT is projected to increase up to 2021, as shown in the footnote to the table- see section 3.
Table 8.1 Comparison expenditure per capita, excluding special forms of trading (in 2012 prices)
2011 2013 2016 2021 £ £ £ Expenditure per capita E Dunbartonshire 3,195 3,399 3,678 4,261 excluding special forms of trading 2,885 3,032 3,200 3,592 Note: The figure for 2011 is from Experian data commissioned for East Dunbartonshire for this study. The orignal figure w as £3,192 in 2011 prices. This has been converted to 2012 prices by a factor of 1.00099 from Experian Retail Planner, Briefing Note 11, Appendix 4b. UK grow th rates are applied, from Appendix 4a- see below . £ £ £ £ UK comparison spend per capita in 2010 prices 3080.8 3277.4 3546.0 4108.3 Less: special forms of trading, internet etc -9.7% -10.8% -13.0% -15.7% From Experian Retail Planner, Briefing Note 11, central case comparison expenditure grow th forecast, Appendix 4a. The deductions for special forms of trading are from Appendix 3, page 19
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Table 8.2 East Dunbartonshire residents' comparison expenditure forecasts (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021 Catchment areas £million £million £million
Bearsden/ Milngavie 122.5 128.2 141.7 Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ N Villages 194.6 203.7 225.1 East Dunbartonshire 317.1 331.9 366.7 Note From Tables 4.2 and 8.1. Excludes special forms of trading, including internet spending.
Market shares by catchment area
8.4 The term ‘market share’ is defined in section 6. Table 8.3 shows the comparison market shares for both catchment areas, based on the household survey. It contains adjustments to reduce the under-stated expenditure retention in East Dunbartonshire emerging from the household survey, especially in relation to comparison floorspace in the superstores and at Strathkelvin Retail Park. Details of how the patterns for the various categories of comparison shopping from the survey questions are combined to represent all comparison shopping are provided in Appendix 4. The adjustments are also explained in that appendix.
8.5 Table 8.3 shows that 31% of the residents from the Bearsden/ Milngavie catchment do their comparison shopping locally, with only 4% visiting Bishopbriggs and Kirkintilloch. The balance of 65% do their main comparison goods shopping outside East Dunbartonshire, mainly in Glasgow. In the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ Northern Villages catchment, 55% shop locally, and the rest (45%) go to centres outside East Dunbartonshire, mainly to Glasgow. The proportion visiting Bearsden and Milngavie is insignificant.
Table 8.3 Where residents of each catchment area do their comparison shopping (market shares) (Adjusted survey findings)
Origin Bearsden/ Milngavie Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch Total East catchment N Villages catchment Dunbartonshire Destination Bearsden / Milngavie 31% 0% 12% Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch 4% 55% 35% Outside E Dunbartonshire 65% 45% 53% Total 100% 100% 100% Note Based on the household survey results: shopping for-clothig & footw ear, furniture/ furnishings, domestic appliances, DIY and personal goods, w eighted to show all comparison goods. The survey patterns for all comparison shopping have been adjusted to correct over-statement of exported expenditure- see details in Appendix 4.
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8.6 For East Dunbartonshire as a whole, the market share is 47% from Table 8.3. In the 2009 Capacity Study, the consultants commented on problems with the NSLSP based survey data for comparison shopping (outflows), which indicated an unrealistically low retention of expenditure in East Dunbartonshire.
Comparison expenditure and turnover in the catchment areas
8.7 As explained in section 6, the relationship between total expenditure and turnover in each catchment is defined simply as: residents’ expenditure potential plus inflows, less outflows equals total turnover. Appendix 5 shows the estimates of expenditure inflows to each catchment from outside East Dunbartonshire from the 2008 based NSLSP data. The outflows are derived from the current household survey.
8.8 Tables 8.4 to 8.6 show the survey based comparison expenditure and turnover relationships (adjusted) for both catchment areas and for East Dunbartonshire in 2013, 2016 and 2021. The inflows of comparison expenditure to both catchment areas from outside East Dunbartonshire are very low. So are the inflows to Bearsden/ Milngavie from the rest of the Council area. The inflows to Bishopbriggs and Kirkintilloch from the remainder of the Council area are also low.
Table 8.4 Bearsden/ Milngavie catchment: comparison expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021 % £million £million £million Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 122.5 128.2 141.7 Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 0.7% 0.82 0.9 0.9 inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 1.1% 1.34 1.4 1.5 Less: outflows -69.0% -84.5 -88.5 -97.7 Turnover 40.1 42.0 46.4 Note From Table 8.2 and Appendices 4 and 5
Table 8.5 Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ N Villages catchment: comparison expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021 % £million £million £million Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 194.6 203.7 225.1 Add: inflows from rest of E Dunbartonshire 2.3% 4.39 4.6 5.1 inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 0.7% 1.43 1.5 1.7 Less: outflows -45.0% -87.6 -91.7 -101.3 Turnover 112.9 118.1 130.5 Note From Table 8.2 and Appendices 4 and 5
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Table 8.6 East Dunbartonshire: comparison expenditure and turnover (in 2012 prices)
2013 2016 2021 % £million £million £million Main catchment residents' expenditure potential 317.1 331.9 366.7 Add: inflows from outside E Dunbartonshire 0.9% 2.8 2.9 3.2 Less: outflows from E Dunbartonshire -52.6% -166.9 -174.7 -193.0 Turnover 153.0 160.1 176.9 Note From Table 8.2 and Appendices 4 and 5
Comparison floorspace and turnover in 2013
8.9 The distribution of comparison floorspace in East Dunbartonshire and in the two catchments is shown in Table 8.7, based on data provided by the Council from their 2012 floorspace survey. The current total of 38,633 sq m net compares to the total of 34,133 sq m net in the 2009 Capacity Study. Unlike convenience retailing, comparison retailing is not dominated by a few participants, so the concept of over/ under-trading has limited application for comparison retailing.
Planning commitments
8.10 There is consent for a non-food retail development of 2,790 sq m gross at the Halley’s Garage site at 111-115 Main Street, Milngavie. The consent was first granted in 2010 (TP/ED/06/0863) and renewed in 2013 (TP/ED/13/0630), with consent for non-compliance on Conditions 15 and 16. The range of goods for sale is restricted to bulky goods plus car and cycle accessories. Assuming a net/gross floorspace ratio of 80% and a turnover ratio of £2,500 per sq m net (relating to bulky goods), the total potential turnover is estimated at some £5.6 million.
8.11 Also there is 15% of floorspace associated with the Waitrose consent which is comparison floorspace. This amounts to 348 sq m net floorspace with an estimated comparison turnover of about £2.5 million.
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Table 8.7 East Dunbartonshire comparison floorspace at actual levels- survey based total (in 2012 prices)
Floorspace sq m Turnover Turnover gross net £ per sq m £million Bearsden/Milngavie catchment
Bearsden Town Centre 1,110 666 3,619 2.4 ASDA, Milngavie Rd (total 9,535 sq m gross- 40% comp) 3,814 2,288 7,836 17.9 Lidl, Baljafray (total 894 sq m gross-10% comp) 89 67 4,045 0.3 Other Bearsden out of centre shops 1,903 1,142 2,533 2.9 Milngavie Town Centre 5,211 3,142 14.4 Tesco- Gavin's Mill Rd (total 5,539 sq m gross 27% comp) 1,496 897 6,636 6.0 M&S Simply Food (total 1,590 sq m gross 10% comp) 159 111 6,652 0.7 Other town centre shops 3,556 2,134 3,619 7.7 Other Milngavie shops 1,455 873 2,533 2.2 Total 13,582 8,178 40.1
Bishopbriggs/Kirkintilloch/N Villages catchment
Bishopriggs Town Centre 1,423 815 2.7 Morrisons, The Triangle (3,815 sq m gross-10% comp) 382 191 2,289 0.4 Other town centre shops 1,041 625 3,607 2.3 ASDA Kirkintilloch Road (total 6,104 sq m gross-30% comp) 1,831 1,099 7,836 8.6 M&S Simply Food, Strathk.R Park (1,880 sq m gross10% comp) 188 132 6,652 0.9 Strathkelvin Retail Park excl M&S 24,608 18,845 3,397 64.0 Other Bishopriggs out of centre shops 646 388 2,405 0.9
Kirkintilloch Town Centre 12,989 7,793 32.4 Tesco- Regent Centre (total 3,012 sq m-5% comp) 151 90 6,636 0.6 Sainsbury's- Shamrock St(total 3,668 sq m gross 15% comp) 550 330 6,894 2.3 Other town centre shops 12,288 7,373 4,008 29.6 Other Kirkintilloch shops 1,745 1,047 2,405 2.5 Lenzie 201 121 2,405 0.3 Twechar 23 14 2,405 0.0 Nothern Villages Lennoxtown 203 122 2,405 0.3 Milton of Campsie 0 0 2,405 0.0 Torrance 133 80 2,405 0.2 Total 43,990 30,455 112.9
Grand Total 57,571 38,633 153.0 Note: It is assumed that the actual turnover levels reflect average levels. Gross floorspace provided by the Council, based on the Assessor- 2012 The total turnover each catchment is the adjusted survey based total in the previous tables. The comparison turnover ratios for the supermarkets derive from the estimated average for non-food (65% of the company average). In Milngavie/ Bearsden, the turnover ratio of the out of centre shops is estimated at 70% of the Milngavie & Bearsden TC ratio. In the other catchment,the Bishopbriggs TC turnover ratio is estimated at 90% of the Kirkintilloch TC turnover ratio. The turnover ratio of the out of centre shops at 60% of the Kirkintilloch TC ratio. The floorspace and turnover of Strathkelvin Retail Park is show n in Appendix 6
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9.0 Spare comparison expenditure capacity
Introduction
9.1 This section provides estimates of the spare comparison retail expenditure capacity that could service new retail floorspace in East Dunbartonshire, including each of two catchment areas identified in this study. The definition of spare capacity is provided in section 7, which includes:
Any current over-trading Growth in retained expenditure (turnover) Potential to claw back expenditure leakage from the primary catchment Potential to attract new trade into the primary catchment ‘Acceptable’ levels of impact
9.2 A range of forecast spare capacity is provided a low and high estimate, after deducting planning commitments. The low estimate includes any over-trading and the forecast growth in expenditure in the catchments over the target periods. The high estimate also includes the potential to claw back leakage and attract new trade into the catchments.
9.3 There is very substantial expenditure leakage from both catchment areas to centres outside East Dunbartonshire, especially to Glasgow. Nevertheless, retail market trends indicate that the largest centres are where current and future demand will be heavily concentrated, as explained in the early sections of this report. The proximity of Glasgow City Centre and major retail parks around Glasgow suggest that the potential for claw back of leakage to the centres in East Dunbartonshire will be limited. This assumption underpins the modest potential for claw back under the high estimates in this report. Therefore, the limitations on potential spare capacity in East Dunbartonshire are strongly driven by the market.
9.4 It should also be noted that this study focusses on the potential to recapture expenditure leakage and increase inflows to the catchment areas from outside East Dunbartonshire only. Thus, the totals for the two catchment areas sum to the total for East Dunbartonshire. The flows between the two catchment areas are relatively minor in any case.
Spare comparison expenditure capacity
9.5 Tables 9.1 to 9.3 show the forecast range of spare comparison expenditure for the two catchment areas and for the Council area in total.
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Table 9.1 Bearsden/ Milngavie catchment: forecast spare comparison expenditure capacity (in 2012 prices)
2013-16 2013-21 range range Components of spare capacity low high low high £million £million £million £million (a) Retained expenditure growth 1.9 1.9 6.3 6.3 (turnover grow th in Table 8.4- from 2013-6 and from 2013-21) Outflows to centres outside E Dunbartonshire (65% of expenditure-Table 8.3: £83.33m in 2016 & £92.1m in 2021) (b) Claw back potential- say 10% of outflow 8.3 9.2 Expenditure inflows from beyond E Dunbartonshire (1.1% of expenditure-Table 8.4: £1.4m in 2016 & £1.5m in 2021) (c) Increase (new trade) potential- 50% 0.7 0.8 (d) Less: comparison planning consents Waitrose £2.5m & Main St, Milngavie £5.6m -8.1 -8.1 -8.1 -8.1 Total spare capacity after commitments (a+b+c-d) -6.2 2.8 -1.8 8.2 sq m net sq m net sq m net sq m net *Equivalent net comparison floorspace -1,780 801 -522 2,329 Rounded to the nearest 100 sq m -1,800 800 -500 2,300 Note (figures are rounded) The net floorspace equivalent assumes a turnover ratio of £3,500 per sq m, w hich w ould broadly relate to tow n centre floorspace or Strathkelvin Retail Park, w here there is a high proportion of non-bulky goods retailers. The potential for claw back of leakage is assumed to be higher compared to the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch catchment because the proportion of outflow s is much higher (Tables 8.4 and 8.5)
Table 9.2 Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ N Villages catchment: forecast spare comparison expenditure capacity (in 2012 prices) 2013-16 2013-21 range range Components of spare capacity low high low high £million £million £million £million (a) Retained expenditure growth 5.3 5.3 17.6 17.6 (turnover grow th in Table 8.5- from 2013-6 and from 2013-21) Outflows to centres outside E Dunbartonshire (45% of expenditure-Table 8.5: £91.7m in 2016 & £101.3m in 2021) (b) Claw back potential- say 5% of outflow 4.6 5.1 Expenditure inflows from beyond E Dunbartonshire (0.7% of expenditure-Table 8.5: £1.5m in 2016 & £1.7m in 2021) (c) Increase (new trade) potential- 50% 0.7 0.8 (d) Less: comparison planning consents None aside from minor part of Waitrose consent- see text. Total spare capacity after commitments (a+b+c-d) 5.3 10.6 17.6 23.5 sq m net sq m net sq m net sq m net *Equivalent net comparison floorspace 1,503 3,026 5,041 6,724 Rounded to the nearest 100 sq m 1,500 3,000 5,000 6,700 Note (figures are rounded) The net floorspace equivalent assumes a turnover ratio of £3,500 per sq m, w hich w ould broadly relate to tow n centre floorspace or Strathkelvin Retail Park, w here there is a high proportion of non-bulky goods retailers.
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Table 9.3 East Dunbartonshire: forecast spare comparison expenditure capacity (in 2012 prices)
2013-16 2013-21 range range Components of spare capacity low high low high £million £million £million £million (a) Retained expenditure growth 7.1 7.1 23.9 23.9 (turnover grow th in Table 8.6- from 2013-6 and from 2013-21) Expenditure outflows (52.6% of expenditure-Table 8.6: £174.7m in 2016 & £193m in 2021) (b) Claw back potential- sum from Tables 9.1 and 9.2 12.9 14.3 Expenditure inflows (0.9% of expenditure-Table 6.6: £2.9m in 2016 & £3.2m in 2021) (c) Increase (new trade) potential- say 50% of inflow 1.4 1.6 (d) Less: comparison planning consents Waitrose £2.5m & Main St, Milngavie £5.6m -8.1 -8.1 -8.1 -8.1 Total spare capacity after commitments (a+b+c-d) -1.0 13.4 15.8 31.7 sq m net sq m net sq m net sq m net *Equivalent net comparison floorspace -277 3,827 4,519 9,053 Rounded to the nearest 100 sq m -300 3,800 4,500 9,100 Note (figures are rounded) The net floorspace equivalent assumes a turnover ratio of £3,500 per sq m, w hich w ould broadly relate to tow n centre floorspace or Strathkelvin Retail Park, w here there is a high proportion of non-bulky goods retailers.
9.6 Bearsden/ Milngavie catchment: there is little retained expenditure growth forecast up to 2016, but it increases to just over £6 million by 2021. It is estimated that 10% of the comparison expenditure leakage to centres beyond the Council area could be recovered to service new comparison floorspace. Note that this proportion is higher than for the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch catchment because the proportion of leakage from the Bearsden/ Milngavie catchment is much higher. The comparison expenditure inflows to this catchment from outside East Dunbartonshire are small, so it is assumed that these could potentially be increased by 50%.
9.7 Table 9.1 shows forecast spare capacity up to £2.8 million to 2016 and up to £8.2 by 2021 under the high estimate. This equates to around 800 sq m net and 2,300 sq m net comparison floorspace respectively, assuming a turnover/floorspace ratio similar to that in the main town centres and Strathkelvin Retail Park (where there is high representation by non-bulky goods retailers), for example.
9.8 Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/ N Villages catchment: there is £5.3 million retained expenditure growth forecast up to 2016, which increases to £17.6 million by 2021. Table 9.2 shows forecast spare capacity up to £10.6 million to 2016 and up to £23.5 by 2021 under the high estimate. This equates to around 3,000 sq m net and 6,700 sq m net comparison
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floorspace respectively, assuming a turnover/floorspace ratio similar to that in the main town centres and Strathkelvin Retail Park, for example.
9.9 The forecast expenditure capacity figures should be given more weight than the equivalent floorspace, because retailer formats and turnover ratios vary widely.
9.10 East Dunbartonshire: the figures in Table 9.3 show the combined spare capacity forecasts for the two catchment areas, although it is more relevant to consider the capacity in the two sub area catchments separately because of the negative forecasts in Bearsden/ Milngavie. The potential claw back of leakage of £14.3 million in 2021 is equivalent to an increase in market share of residents’ expenditure (£366.7 million) of 3.9%.
Capacity from ‘acceptable’ levels of impact
9.11 The concept of acceptable impact has been described in detail in the section on convenience retail capacity. While in theory there would be some comparison capacity from this source, it is less relevant compared to convenience capacity, because of market forces, where the comparison retail opportunities are mainly in the largest centres outside the Council area, i.e. Glasgow City Centre and the various shopping centres. So there is no elaboration on the issue for comparison retailing in this study.
Significance of the capacity forecasts
9.12 In the Bearsden and Milngavie catchment, the forecast capacity would support some additional comparison retailers in the town centres, but rather fewer until after 2016, assuming the consent at Main Street Milngavie is developed. The high end of the capacity estimate may not be achieved, unless some high end, or specialist retailers locate in the area.
9.13 In the Bishobriggs/ Kirkintilloch/Northern Villages catchment, the forecast capacity would support new comparison retail development in the town centres and in Strathkelvin Retail Park. Compared to the existing level of comparison floorspace in Bishopbriggs and Kirkintilloch town centres, the floorspace that could be supported by the spare capacity is quite large at the upper end of the forecast. It would take a substantial development to realise this potential.
9.14 Kirkintilloch offers more potential to realise this opportunity, as Bishopbriggs is relatively small. Market potential though, will include future interest in Strathkelvin Retail Park, so it is fair to consider that the forecast capacity relates to the town centres and to the retail park. This of course raises planning policy issues for the Council to consider in context of the
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fresh emphasis on ‘Town Centres First’ by the Scottish Government, including the SPP (June 2014).
9.15 It will be essential for the town centres to continue to maintain and improve the quality of the comparison retail offer in context of the trends in retailing explained in section 3, which includes increasing concentration of market interest by national multiples in the largest centres, especially Glasgow City Centre. The dominant attraction of the City Centre for East Dunbartonshire shoppers is also evident from the household survey and graphs in section 5. Therefore the town centres in the study area will also have to work to improve their overall attraction as places to visit and to shop. As indicated in section 3, much will depend on independent retailers to achieve improvements to the retail offer, including more specialist shops.
9.16 The recent version of the SPP and the Scottish Government’s current National Review of Town Centres stresses the need to sustain a mix of activities in town centres under the ‘Town Centres First’ principle, which includes retailing. Comparison retail development opportunities should therefore be encouraged and supported within town centres in order to retain an appropriate level of retail offer within East Dunbartonshire.
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10.0 Conclusions
10.1 Ryden and Roderick MacLean Associates were instructed by East Dunbartonshire Council in August 2013 to provide a retail capacity assessment for the East Dunbartonshire area. This report amends the version dated February 2014. The findings are summarised below.
Retail Property Market 10.2 The retail sector has experienced slow growth which is reflected in reduced development activity, especially outwith prime retail locations such as Glasgow City Centre and shopping malls. There has been significant activity within the convenience food sector as the development of large supermarkets has been decreasing, while the number of local convenience stores has been growing rapidly.
10.3 Glasgow city centre sits at the top of the retail hierarchy dominating the wider Clyde Valley region. Despite proximity to Glasgow, East Dunbartonshire has high occupancy rates with a number of multiple and independent retailers represented. However, retail closures have affected all the town centres.
10.4 The occupier retail property market has been relatively active across all the four towns but there has been little investment activity. Demand has been mainly for small units and rental values vary from £93 per sq m in Kirkintilloch to £500 per sq m in Bearsden.
10.5 Going forward, demand for town centre retail space from national multiple retailers is likely to be reduced with regional and local retailers occupying retail units alongside other commercial and leisure uses and possibly service and community uses outside of prime retail frontages. Forecast increases in the proportions of internet retailing also contribute to limiting the demand for conventional retail floorspace.
Forecast spare convenience expenditure capacity to 2021
10.6 After development of the existing planning consents, there will be no significant convenience retail expenditure capacity in any of the five catchment areas up to 2021. There may be potential for servicing minor retail unit developments in addition to the consents, where the trade diversion on established town centres would be very low and not threaten their viability. The Council will advise applicants when a retail impact assessment is required in support of new development proposals.
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Forecast spare comparison expenditure capacity to 2021
10.7 The range of forecast spare comparison expenditure capacity in the Bearsden/ Milngavie catchment area is:
Low forecast: no spare capacity to 2021, assuming the existing consents are developed.
High forecast: £2.8 million from 2013-16 and £8.2 million from 2013-21, over and above the existing consents. Equivalent floorspace: 800 sq m net and 2,300 sq m net respectively
10.8 The range of forecast spare comparison expenditure capacity in the Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch/Northern Villages catchment area is:
Low forecast: £5.3 million from 2013-16 and £17.6 million from 2013-21. Equivalent floorspace: 1,500 sq m net and 5,000 sq m net respectively.
High forecast: £10.6 million from 2013-16 and £23.5 million from 2013-21. Equivalent floorspace: 3,000 sq m net and 6,500 sq m net respectively
10.9 The Scottish Planning Policy SPP (June 2014) and the Scottish Government’s current National Review of Town Centres stresses the need to sustain a mix of activities in town centres under the ‘Town Centres First’ principle, which includes retailing. There is forecast expenditure capacity to support additional comparison floorspace across all four town centres under the high estimate, although it is rather limited before 2016 in the Bearsden/ Milngavie catchment. If insufficient comparison retail development opportunities are realised within the town centres, the outflow of expenditure to Glasgow City Centre and other major shopping centres will probably increase.
10.10 While the forecast capacity would also support some new development at Strathkelvin Retail Park, applications would have to be assessed for potential conflict with the policy focus on supporting town centres.
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Appendix 1
Household survey questions
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Survey interview quotas- in proportion to the zone populations
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Total Bearsden Milngavie Bishopbriggs Kirkintilloch N Villages E Dunbartonshire 260 130 215 290 105 1,000
Q1a. Where do you normally go to do most of your family's main food shopping?
Q1b. Which other centre or store do you visit for main food shopping, but much less often?
Q1c. Where do you normally do your small, day-to-day top-up food shopping?
Q2a. On average, how often do you do your main food shopping at Q1a?
Q2b. On average, how often do you do your main food shopping at your second most visited store or centre - Q1b?
Q2c. On average, how often do you do your top-up food shopping?
Q3. How do you normally travel to Q1a for main food shopping?
Q4. Could you tell me what other things you usually combine with doing your main food shopping?
Q5a. Where do you visit most often to buy clothes, shoes and other fashion items?
Q5b. Where do you visit most often to buy furniture, floor coverings and soft furnishings?
Q5c. Where do you visit most often to buy large domestic electrical appliances such as fridges, washing machines, vacuum cleaners etc?
Q5d. Where do you visit most often to buy DIY and hardware?
Q5e. Where do you visit most often to buy other items of a mainly personal nature, such as sports goods, jewellery, books, toys, CDs, computers, mobiles,cameras, electronic games etc?
Q6. Which of the following town centres do you visit most often?
Q7. On average, how often do you visit Q6 town centre?
Q8. What do you like most about Q6 town centre for shopping and as a place to visit generally?
Q9. What do you dislike most about Q6 town centre for shopping and as a place to visit generally?
Q10. How do you compare the general street environment of Q6 town centre with other town centres that you know?
Q11. What improvements to Q6 town centre would make you visit there more often?
Q13. What would make you visit Q6 town centre more often in the evenings?
Q14. SEG of chief wage earner
Q15. Age group of respondent
Q16. Gender of respondent
Q17. Would you be willing to be re-contacted for future quality control purposes?
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Appendix 2
Convenience shopping patterns-household survey
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Most visited main food shopping destination Origin Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Total E Dunb. Destination Bearsden 53% 16% 0% 1% 3% 16% Milngavie 28% 79% 0% 1% 5% 19% Bishopbriggs 0% 0% 84% 20% 46% 29% Kirkintilloch 0% 0% 0% 59% 35% 21% Northern Villages 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Outside E Dunbartonshire 19% 5% 15% 19% 10% 15% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Other main food shopping destination - visited much less often Origin Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Total E Dunb. Destination Bearsden 41% 34% 0% 1% 4% 16% Milngavie 28% 52% 1% 1% 4% 14% Bishopbriggs 1% 0% 78% 46% 56% 37% Kirkintilloch 0% 0% 1% 31% 19% 11% Northern Villages 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Outside E Dunbartonshire 31% 14% 20% 21% 15% 22% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Normal top-up shopping destination Origin Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Total E Dunb. Destination Bearsden 76% 6% 0% 0% 2% 21% Milngavie 11% 92% 0% 1% 5% 16% Bishopbriggs 0% 0% 88% 10% 16% 23% Kirkintilloch 0% 0% 1% 75% 22% 24% Northern Villages 0% 0% 1% 0% 37% 5% Outside E Dunbartonshire 12% 2% 11% 13% 17% 12% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
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All convenience goods shopping destination Origin Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Total East Destination Dunbartonshire Bearsden 55% 18% 0% 1% 3% 17% Milngavie 25% 76% 0% 1% 5% 17% Bishopbriggs 0% 0% 83% 24% 42% 29% Kirkintilloch 0% 0% 1% 56% 29% 19% Northern Villages 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 1% Outside E Dunbartonshire 20% 6% 15% 18% 12% 16% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Note Based on the household survey results for main food shopping and top-up shopping, w eighted to show the composite for all convenience shopping. Details are provided in Appendix 2. Percentages are rounded.
Weighting to deduce all comparison shopping Most visited main food shopping destination 58% Other main food shopping destination - visited much less often 22% Normal top-up shopping destination 20% Note The proportion for top-up shopping is an estimate from other studies, commonly at 20%-25% of all comparison shopping, w hile taking account of 22% of respondents in this survey w ho said that they did not do top-up shopping.
For the balance of 80% relating to main food shopping, the w eighting for most visited destinations and 2nd most visited destinations is based on the mean frequency of visits in each case, adjusted to take account of 24% of respondents w ho did not visit another store for main food shopping.
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Appendix 3
Convenience expenditure- inflows from beyond East Dunbartonshire
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East Dunbartonshire residents expenditure potential 2013 (in 2012 prices) 2013 Zone *Inflows as % £ million of E Dunb. total 225.3
1 Asda Bearsden 7.2% 16.3 1 Lidl Bearsden 0.3% 0.6 2 Tesco Milngavie 4.0% 8.9 2 Iceland Milngavie 0.1% 0.2 2 M&S Milngavie 0.2% 0.4 3 Asda Bishopriggs 2.5% 5.7 3 Morrison Bishopriggs 1.0% 2.2 4 Sainsbury's Kirkintilloch 1.2% 2.8 Total 16.5% 37.2 Note *% from 2008 NSLSP survey data
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Residents' expenditure potential £ million £ million £ million £ million £ million by Zone 2013 58.2 28.8 48.7 65.4 24.2 Origin- inflows from: Total inflow Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 from rest of E Dunb. from outside E Dunb. Destination £ million £ million Bearsden 18% 0% 1% 3% 6.6 16.9 Milngavie 25% 0% 1% 5% 16.4 9.6 Bishopbriggs 0% 0% 24% 42% 25.7 8.0 Kirkintilloch 0% 0% 1% 29% 7.3 2.8 Northern Villages 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.1 0 From outside E Dunbartonshire 37.2
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Appendix 4
Comparison shopping patterns- household survey
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Q5a Most visited centre for clothes, shoes and other fashion items Origin Bearsden/ Milngavie Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch E Dunbartonshire catchment catchment Total Destination Bearsden / Milngavie 9% 1% 4% Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch 1% 16% 10% Outside E Dunbartonshire 90% 83% 86% Total 100% 100% 100%
Q5b Most visited centre for furniture, floorcoverings and soft furnishings Origin Bearsden/ Milngavie Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch E Dunbartonshire catchment catchment Total Destination Bearsden / Milngavie 6% 0% 2% Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch 6% 40% 28% Outside E Dunbartonshire 88% 60% 70% Total 100% 100% 100%
Q5c Most visited centre for large domestic electrical appliances Origin Bearsden/ Milngavie Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch E Dunbartonshire catchment catchment Total Destination Bearsden / Milngavie 10% 0% 4% Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch 12% 79% 54% Outside E Dunbartonshire 78% 20% 42% Total 100% 100% 100%
Q5d Most visited centre for DIY and hardware Origin Bearsden/ Milngavie Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch E Dunbartonshire catchment catchment Total Destination Bearsden / Milngavie 36% 1% 14% Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch 16% 93% 65% Outside E Dunbartonshire 47% 6% 21% Total 100% 100% 100%
Q5e Most visited centre for personal goods Origin Bearsden/ Milngavie Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch E Dunbartonshire catchment catchment Total Destination Bearsden / Milngavie 28% 0% 11% Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch 3% 32% 21% Outside E Dunbartonshire 69% 68% 68% Total 100% 100% 100%
Most visited centre for all comparison shopping Origin Bearsden/ Milngavie Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch Total East catchment catchment Dunbartonshire Destination Bearsden / Milngavie 20.1% 0.4% 7.9% Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch 3.6% 33.4% 22.2% Outside E Dunbartonshire 76.3% 66.2% 69.9% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Weighting - from Experian expenditure per capita data for E Dunbartonshire 2011 All comparison shopping Clothing, shoes and fashion 28.9% Furniture, floorcoverings & furnishings 12.1% Large domestic appliances 1.8% DIY and hardware 6.8% Personal goods 50.4% Total comparison expenditure 100.0%
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Most visited centre for all comparison shopping- adjusted from survey Origin Bearsden/ Milngavie Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch Total East catchment catchment Dunbartonshire Destination Bearsden / Milngavie 31% 0% 12% Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch 4% 55% 35% Outside E Dunbartonshire 65% 45% 53% Total 100% 100% 100%
The household survey findings substantially understate the comparison expenditure retained in East Dunbartonshire, including the comparison floorspace in the supermarkets and also at Strathkelvin Retail Park. It is common for household surveys generally to over-state the most popular destinations (in this case outside East Dunbartonshire) and under-state less popular destinations. Therefore the above adjustments are necessary to ensure a more realistic estimate of the local turnover.
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Appendix 5
Comparison expenditure inflows from beyond East Dunbartonshire
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East Dunbartonshire residents' expenditure potential 2013 (in 2012 prices)
Inflows as % £ million of E Dunb. total 317.1
To Bearsden/Milngavie 0.4% 1.34 To Bishopbriggs/ Kirkintilloch 0.5% 1.43 Total 0.9% 2.77 Note %s from 2008 NSLSP survey data
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Appendix 6
Strathkelvin Retail Park
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Strathkelvin Retail Park: comparison floorspace and turnover, 2013 (in 2012 prices) Floorspace sq m Turnover Turnover gross net ratio £/sq m £million *B & Q 9,290 7,432 2,086 15.5 Matalan 3,667 2,934 2,300 6.7 Currys/PC World 1,864 1,491 6,239 9.3 Argos 1,529 382 18,756 7.2 Nike (new arrival) 1,098 878 4,800 4.2 Pets at Home 933 746 2,593 1.9 Sports Direct 933 746 4,800 3.6 Carpetright 932 746 1,125 0.8 Harry Corry 932 746 1,300 0.8 **Boots 910 728 6,500 4.7 Bensons 694 555 2,348 1.3 Next 932 746 4,430 3.3 TJ Morris 894 715 6,343 4.5 ***Halfords Total 24,608 18,845 64.0 Note Gross floorspace from the 2012 Council survey, w ith average company turnover ratios based on the Retail Rankings 2013 * B&Q has a total area of 10,046 sq m gross, w hich includes the garden centre (not included above) ** Estimated turnover ratio for Boots reduced from company average for this location *** Halfords not included because it is mainly associated w ith car accessories- (non- retailing under the Govt. classification)
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