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CJ인터넷(037150) Reinstating Coverage KOREA Aug

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CJ인터넷(037150) Reinstating Coverage KOREA Aug MIRAEASSET EQUITY RESEARCH 보고서의 목적 CJ인터넷(037150) Reinstating Coverage KOREA Aug. 21, 2006 / 인터넷 본격적인 퍼블리셔로의 행보 BUY(Reinstate) 6개월 목표주가 32,000원 및 투자의견 BUY로 Coverage 재개 취 서든어택의 호조, CJ그룹과의 시너지 본격화, 넷마블재팬의 턴어라운드 기대 목표주가 (6M) 32,000원 지 최근 관심 이슈 및 리스크요인 점검 현재주가 (08 / 18) 26,400원 Analyst 송인애 3774-1620 [email protected] ■ 목표주가 32,000원, 투자의견 BUY 제시하며 Coverage 재개 Company Analysis CJ인터넷에 대한 목표주가 32,000원 및 BUY 투자의견을 제시하며 커버리지를 재 발행 주식수(천주) 22,666 개함. 목표주가 32,000원은 전세계 동종업체의 상대 PER을 이용한 비교 밸류에이 액면가(원) 500 시가총액 (십억원) 598 션을 통하여 산출함. 동 목표주가를 적용한 동사의 2006년, 2007년 및 2008년 예 52주 최저 / 최고(원) 10,600/33,400 상 PER은 33.0배, 15.9배, 13.2배 수준이며 12개월 Forward EPS 1,447원에 대한 52주 일간 Beta (KOSPI대비) 1.7 PER은 22.1배 수준임. CJ인터넷의 향후 3년 연평균 매출액, 영업이익, 당기순이익 평균거래량(3M, 천주) 469 의 성장율은 각각 29.6%, 37.7%, 44.6%에 달할 것으로 예상함. 평균거래대금(3M, 백만원) 11,789 외국인소유지분율 (%) 4.6 05년 주당 배당금(원) 150 ■ 서든어택은 성장 초기국면, PC방 유료화에 따른 반사 효과 기대 06년 주당 예상배당금(원) 0 서든어택의 라이프사이클은 아직 초기 국면으로 향후의 성장잠재력이 높을 전망임. 06년 예상EPS Consensus(원) 1,057 최근 서든어택의 높은 트래픽은 이벤트를 통해 이루어진 것이므로 당장의 매출 성 Consensus 차이(%) (8.5) 장을 기대하기에 이른감이 있음. 그러나, 조만간 PC방 유료화가 예상된다는 점과 주요주주 지분율(%) 씨제이㈜ 외 2인 26.8 향후 PC방 매출과 PC방을 활용한 유료화 전략을 통해 반사효과를 기대할 수 있다 미래에셋투자신탁운용 8.6 는 점에서 최근의 트래픽 증가를 긍정적으로 평가함. 카르마온라인의 유료화 실패 방준혁 5.1 에 부담을 느껴 서든어택의 유료화 행보가 조심스럽게 진행되고 있으므로 본격적인 1M 6M 12M 매출성장은 늦어질 수 있음. 그러나, 스페셜포스 보다 빠르게 PC방 유료화가 진행 주가상승률(%) 17.9 17.3 149.1 될 것으로 예상되므로 PC방 유료화를 통한 서든어택의 매출 신장을 기대함. PC방 KOSPI대비 상대수익률(%) 9.9 17.5 127.2 가맹점 확보는 매출증대와 Wide Release 효과, 아이템 유료화 모델시 PC방 활용이 (원) 라는 3가지 면에서 의미가 있음. 40,000 260 35,000 240 220 30,000 ■ CJ그룹과의 시너지 본격화 기대, 넷마블재팬의 잠재 성장 가능성 상존 CJ인터넷 (좌) 200 25,000 180 최근의 이벤트 진행에서 나타나는 CJ그룹과의 연계 마케팅을 분석해 볼 때, 아직은 20,000 160 걸음마 단계에 있으나, 향후 CJ그룹사와의 시너지 본격화가 예상됨. 넷마블재팬은 15,000 140 120 매출액 및 수익규모는 여전히 미진하나, 후발업체임에도 상위권의 트래픽을 보이고 10,000 100 있고 일본 온라인게임시장이 부분 유료화 모델로 성장하고 있어 향후 서든어택, 마 5,000 KOSPI대비 상대지수 (우) 80 0 60 구마구 등 국내 흥행작의 일본 런칭에 따른 턴어라운드 기대도 가능할 전망임. 05.8 05.10 05.12 06.2 06.4 06.6 결산월 매출액 영업이익 EBITDA 경상이익 순이익 EPS 증감률 PER PBR EV/EBITDA ROE 12월 (십억원) (십억원) (십억원) (십억원) (십억원) (원) (%) (배) (배) (배) (%) 2004 141.4 33.6 39.6 (9.4) (14.3) (648) 적전 - 1.7 4.8 (10.8) 2005 84.5 26.6 30.9 25.7 18.2 832 흑전 20.9 2.8 9.5 13.2 2006E 111.6 34.4 40.7 31.9 21.9 967 16.2 27.3 3.5 12.1 13.6 2007E 169.1 60.0 67.1 62.9 45.4 2,004 107.3 13.2 2.8 6.7 23.5 2008E 184.2 69.4 76.0 75.5 54.9 2,422 20.8 10.9 2.2 5.2 22.5 ※ 본 종목에 대한 이해관계 공지사항은 본 보고서의 마지막 페이지에 있으므로 투자에 참고하시기 바랍니다. CJ인터넷(037150) CC ontents I. Investment Summary 3 II.Valuation 4 목표주가 32, 000원과 BUY 투자의견으로 커버리지 재개 4 III. 영업실적전망 7 퍼블리싱: 서든어택의 선전이 실적을 견인 9 웹보드게임: 추가성장보다는 캐쉬카우로서의 역할 기대 10 넷마블재팬: 서든어택, 마구마구로 인한 흑자전환도 기대 가능 12 IV. 최근 이슈 15 서든어택의 트래픽 증가세 - PC방 유료화에 따른 반사 효과 기대 15 CJ그룹과의 시너지 본격화 기대 17 V. 리스크요인 18 게임 판권확보에 따른 선급금의 증가 18 부분 유료화 모델의 증가로 불확실성이 높아지고 있는 게임 매출 19 개발사 이탈 방지를 위한 비용 증가 20 2 2006.08.21 CJ인터넷(037150) I. Investment Summary 목표주가 32,000원과 BUY 투자의견으로 Coverage 재개 목표주가 32,000원 투자의견 CJ인터넷에 대한 목표주가 32,000원 및 BUY 투자의견을 제시하며 커버리지를 재개한다. BUY로 Coverage 재개 목표주가 32,000원은 전세계 동종업체의 상대 PER을 이용한 비교 밸류에이션을 통해 산출 하였다. 목표주가 32,000원을 적용한 동사의 2006년, 2007년 및 2008년 예상 PER은 33.0 배, 15.9배, 13.2배 수준이며 12개월 Forward EPS 1,447원에 대한 PER은 22.1배 수준이다. 서든어택이 견인하는 성장, PC방 유료화는 안정적인 수익창출의 포문, CJ그룹과의 시너지 성장 초기 국면의 서든어택 서든어택은 아직 라이프사이클의 초기 국면이며, PC방 유료화가 예상되고 있어 보다 안정적 CJ그룹과의 시너지 본격화 인 수익증가가 가능할 전망이다. 최근 서든어택의 높은 트래픽은 이벤트를 통해 이루어진 것 이므로 당장의 매출 성장을 기대하기에 이른감이 있으나, 조만간 PC방 유료화가 예상된다는 점과 향후 PC방 매출과 PC방을 활용한 유료화 전략을 통해 안정적인 매출 성장을 기대할 수 있다는 점에서 최근의 트래픽 증가를 긍정적으로 평가한다. PC방 가맹점 확보는 매출증 대와 와이드릴리즈 효과, 유료화 모델시 PC방 활용이라는 3가지 면에서 의미가 있다. 최근 의 이벤트 진행에서 나타나는 CJ그룹과의 연계 마케팅을 분석해 볼 때, 아직은 걸음마 단계 에 지나지 않으나, 동사의 CJ그룹으로 편입이후 꾸준히 기대해 오던 CJ그룹사와의 시너지 본격화를 기대한다. 한편, 넷마블재팬은 매출액 및 수익규모는 여전히 미진하나, 후발업체임 에도 상위권의 트래픽을 보이고 있어 향후 서든어택, 마구마구 등 국내 흥행작의 일본 런칭 이후에 본격적인 턴어라운드에 대한 기대도 가능할 전망이다. 매출 및 이익 전망 서든어택의 성공은 CJ인터넷의 향후 3년 연평균 매출액, 영업이익, 당기순이익의 성장율은 각각 29.6%, 37.7%, 본격적인 퍼블리셔로의 도약을 44.6%에 달할 것으로 예상된다. CJ인터넷의 퍼블리셔로서의 이러한 성장세는 동사가 회사 가능하게 함 의 역량을 게임사업에 집중하고 있고 최근 서든어택에서 좋은 반응을 보이고 있는 것을 고려 한 것이다. 서든어택은 신규 개발사 제품으로 마구마구보다도 수익배분에서도 유리한 상황 이므로 서든어택의 성공은 CJ인터넷의 수익성 개선에 기여할 것으로 예상한다. 서든어택의 성공은 단기적인 성과이외에도 동사가 진정한 퍼블리셔 업계의 선두업체로 자리매김하는 토 대가 되어 향후 게임 라인업 확보에도 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 기대한다. 2007년에는 YS온라인 등 여러 게임이 예정되어 있으나, 모두 중소형게임으로 서든어택 이후에는 기대되 는 야심작은 없기 때문에 추가적인 라인업 확보가 필요할 전망이다. 위험요인 – 게임 성과의 불확실성, 개발사 이탈 방지를 위한 투자비용 증가, 선급금 증가 라인업 확보는 현재 초기 상용화 단계인 서든어택을 비롯하여 향후 서비스될 게임들의 실적추정치는 스페 선급금, 무형자산의 증가로 귀결 셜포스와 같은 각 장르별 선발게임들의 사례를 통해 매출 추정하였으나, 각 게임의 유료화 결과에 따른 불확실성이 존재한다. 또한, 스폐셜포스, 프리스타일 등 성공한 게임의 개발사 와 퍼블리셔간 분쟁은 대부분의 개발사들이 주식시장 진입을 고려하고 있기에 지속적으로 발생할 수 있는 이슈이다. 따라서 게임 라인업 확보시 판권과 더불어 개발사 지분도 확보할 가능성이 높아지면서 비용이 증가할 우려가 있다. 더불어 게임 판권 확보를 위한 선급금이 게임수와 비례하여 증가추세에 있으므로 서비스 게임 수가 늘어나면 비용증가의 원인으로 작용할 수 있다. 2006.08.21 3 CJ인터넷(037150) II.Valuation 목표주가 32,000원과 BUY 투자의견으로 커버리지 재개 CJ인터넷에 대한 6개월 투자의견 CJ인터넷에 대한 6개월 투자의견 BUY 및 목표주가 32,000원을 제시하며 커버리지를 재개 BUY 및 목표주가 32,000원 제시 한다. 동 목표주가는 현주가 대비 21.2%의 상승여력이 있다. CJ인터넷의 적정가치는 전세계 동종업체의 상대 PER을 이용한 비교 밸류에이션을 통해 산출하였다. 적정가 산출을 위한 기 준으로 세계 주요 게임업체의 상대 PER 평균치 3.4배를 30% 할인하여 적용하였다. 30% 할 인한 이유는 1) 동사 매출의 대부분을 차지하는 게임업종이 분기별로 사이클을 이루고 있어 인터넷 업종 Top pick인 NHN 대비 매출 및 수익 안정성이 낮으며, 2) 아직까지는 서든어택 이후 기대할만한 차기 야심작이 없기 때문이다. 목표주가 32,000원을 적용한 동사의 2006 년, 2007년 및 2008년 예상 PER은 33.0배, 15.9배, 13.2배 수준이며 12개월 Forward EPS 1,447원에 대한 PER은 22.1배 수준이다. <표 1> Global Peer Group Valuation 지표 세계 주요 게임업체의 구분 단위 EA ACTIVISION SQUARE ENIX NETEASE THE9 TENCENT UBI SOFT 지수대비 상대 PER 평균은 3.4배 Ticker(code) ERTS ATVI 9684 JP NTES NCTY US 700 HK UBI FP Country US US JN CH CH CH FR Currency USD USD JPY USD USD HKD EUR Relative Index SPX SPX TPX SPX SPX HSI CAC Price 50.8 13.2 2,650 17.2 25.0 17.5 39.7 Relative PER 배3.2 8.6 0.4 1.0 1.0 5.1 4.6 2006E 배 90.6 88.3 24.6 15.6 17.4 33.9 64.7 PER 2007E 배 38.6 26.1 22.3 13.4 12.7 27.1 28.2 2006E 0.6 0.1 107.7 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.6 EPS 2007E 1.3 0.5 118.8 1.3 2.0 0.6 1.4 1일 % 3.9 3.0 (1.1) (7.8) 0.5 5.4 0.2 1개월 % 12.2 16.5 19.9 (17.6) 7.2 13.1 6.9 주가수익률 3개월 % 17.5 (0.5) 5.8 (25.1) (9.4) 18.1 (1.6) 6개월 % (2.9) 8.3 (15.1) (2.7) 26.8 65.7 27.5 1년 % (15.5) (12.3) (12.8) (8.9) 12.5 139.5 (7.6) 지수대비 1일 % (1.4) (1.4) (2.6) (1.4) (1.4) 4.4 0.2 상대수익률 1개월 % 7.9 12.0 12.0 (20.7) 3.1 4.6 (0.1) 3개월 % 18.1 (0.0) 6.8 (24.7) (8.9) 11.0 (2.2) 6개월 % (2.6) 8.6 (15.0) (2.5) 27.2 46.7 24.0 1년 % (19.8) (16.9) (33.0) (13.6) 6.7 111.9 (19.7) 자료: Bloomberg, I/B/E/S 주: 해외기업주가는 8월 15일 종가(현지시각) <표 2> 상대 Valuation(Relative PER을 이용한 목표주가 산출) Valuation에 적용한 구분 산출방법 상대 PER은 22.4배 해외 동종업체의 상대 PER(배) (A) 3.4 시장 평균 12M Forward PER(배) (B) 9.4 할증(할인)(%) (C) (30) 적용 상대 PER(배) (D) = (A)*(B)*(C) 22.4 CJ인터넷의 12M Forward EPS(원) (E) 1,447 주당 적정 가치(원) (F) = (D)*(E) 32,371 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 4 2006.08.21 CJ인터넷(037150) <표 3> 목표주가 32,000원의 투자 지표 현주가 26,400원의 투자지표 목표주가 32,000원의 투자지표 구분 2006E 2007E 2008E 2006E 2007E 2008E PER(배) 27.2 13.1 10.9 33.0 15.9 13.2 PBR(배) 3.7 2.9 2.3 4.5 3.5 2.7 12개월 Forward PER(배) 18.2 22.1 12개월 Forward PBR(배) 3.2 3.9 3년 평균 EPS 성장률(%) 43.8 43.8 PEG 0.62 0.75 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 추정 <그림 1> CJ인터넷 PER Band CJ인터넷 주가는 과거 Valuation의 (원) 중간치 수준 50,000 주가 10X 14X 18X 22X 26X 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 00/01 00/07 01/01 01/07 02/01 02/07 03/01 03/07 04/01 04/07 05/01 05/07 06/01 06/07 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 <그림 2> CJ인터넷 EV/EBITDA Band (십억(억원)원) 1,000 EV 7X 10X 13X 16X 19X 800 600 400 200 0 00/01 00/07 01/01 01/07 02/01 02/07 03/01 03/07 04/01 04/07 05/01 05/07 06/01 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 2006.08.21 5 CJ인터넷(037150) <그림 3> CJ인터넷 신규 매출 레벨업과 주가 추이 CJ인터넷의 신규 매출액 성장성과 (십억원) (원) 주가 상승 80 매출액(좌) 35,000 수정주가(우) 70 30,000 60 25,000 50 20,000 40 15,000 30 10,000 20 5,000 10 0 0 04/01 04/04 04/07 04/10 05/01 05/04 05/07 05/10 06/01 06/04 06/07 자료: CJ인터넷, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터.
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