Counting Excess Civilian Casualties of the Iraq War: Table of Contents Science Or Politics? 1
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ABOUT SUBMISSION GUIDELINES ARCHIVES MASTHEAD Counting excess civilian casualties of the Iraq War: Table of Contents Science or Politics? 1. Introduction 2. Direct Methods BY MARIA KARAGIOZAKIS 3. Indirect Methods PUBLISHED JUNE 22, 2009 4. Accountability Towards Civilians INTRODUCTION 5. Conclusion Civilians during times of war bear the consequences of deteriorating security and 6. Bibliography lack of safety, and ultimately fall victim of the circumstances. The 2003 US-led 7. References invasion of Iraq has resulted in the deaths of many Iraqi civilians. [2] Exact numbers however, are not known. As is common during times of war, there is the absence of a Keywords: accountability, Excess civilian centralized death registration system in Iraq. [3] Direct methods of counting, casualties, Geneva Conventions, Hague whereby official death records of morgues, hospitals, and death certificates are Conventions, Iraq War, US and its allies consulted, are therefore unreliable. [4]Given this, indirect methods of interviewing households throughout Iraq are the most reliable method of counting given the circumstances. Many international organizations, governments and non- governmental organizations have counted excess [5] civilian casualties using such methods; however all have reported different numbers. Reports range from 128,000 to 1,033,000. This means the death of over 900,000 Iraqis is disputed. This discrepancy and dispute over the lives of Iraqi civilians is due to the politics of numbers. That is, the reported number of excess civilian casualties supports policy agendas and serve as political statements. Counting has been treated as a means of elevating political positions. In this way, counting excess civilian casualties of the Iraq war has not been treated as an unbiased scientific endeavor by all parties involved. Individuals and states gaining from the Iraq War, for example, have an incentive to report smaller numbers of Iraqi civilian casualties. [6] The fewer the numbers, the lesser the responsibility on the part of the US and its allies to Iraq and its people. As observed by Marla Ruzicka, “Until people have a name and are counted they don’t exist in a policy sense.” [7] We may never know the true number of Iraqi civilians killed as a result of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq. Not only because of the politics of numbers, but also because it is nearly impossible to accurately count numbers of civilian deaths during war. A lack f a centralized death registration system and the mass killing of civilians are only a few reasons for this. What the international community can achieve however, is the strengthening of humanitarian law and policies so that states bear responsibility for civilians during war to ensure enemy forces do not act with impunity towards civilian populations. Accountability is the only force powerful enough to ensure enemy forces take responsibility for civilian lives lost, rather than treating civilian deaths as inevitable collateral damage. Strengthened responsibility towards civilians during war is required if we are to prevent a repeat of the situation in Iraq where, as mentioned, the death of nearly 900,000 Iraqis is disputed. DIRECT METHODS Direct and indirect methods of counting excess civilian casualties of the Iraq War For editorial inquiries, contact [email protected]. For technical questions produce different numbers due to the different sources they rely on to collect about the website, contact [email protected]. information. Direct methods of counting yield smaller numbers than indirect methods of counting because, as mentioned, relying on death certificates to count excess civilian casualties rests on the false assumption that all deaths are captured by morgues and hospitals. In Iraq, as is true for conflict situations generally, this is not the case for a number of reasons. [8] First, morgues throughout Baghdad have reached their full capacity, yet bodies of civilians continue to arrive. With bodies remaining on the floor until room is created, the families of Iraqi civilian casualties prefer to bury their dead without waiting for a death certificate to be issued by a morgue which may take weeks. [9] In line with Iraqi culture and religion, Iraqis bury their dead by sunset on the day of the death. [10] Second, the bodies of Iraqi civilians buried in mass graves do not reach morgues or hospitals and are not issued death certificates. Third, families may not want to provide their personal details on government forms for fear and suspicion of American troops in Iraq and, because of this, many Iraqi civilian casualties are not recorded. [11] Fourth, relying only on official records does not count the bodies of civilians that were so mutilated from fires and bombings that they could not be identified, and thus not issued death certificates. [12] Fifth, the centralized registration system during Saddam Hussein’s regime captured only one third of deaths in Iraq. [13] Ruined infrastructure and the departure of health professionals after the US-led March 2003 invasion has resulted in further deterioration of this system. If less than thirty five percent of deaths were accounted for prior to the US invasion, even less so would be accounted for now. Regardless of these five weaknesses however, this methodology of counting was used by United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq [UNAMI], which reports 35,000 excess civilian casualties in 2006 (the lowest number report using direct methods). [14] This number was extrapolated specifically from the Health Ministry and the Baghdad morgue. [15] The number reported by UNAMI, however, captures only a fraction of the excess Iraqi civilian casualties. INDIRECT METHODS Passive Surveillance Indirect methods of counting excess Iraqi civilian casualties involve either household interviews of Iraqi families; or passive surveillance of the media to collect information of civilian deaths. In the first instance, passive surveillance involves relying on reported Iraqi civilian deaths from selected media sources. However, this methodology possesses two weaknesses, namely that media reports and press releases are based largely on civilian casualties only in Baghdad and not regions of Iraq where Western journalists do not report from. [16] Also, passive surveillance relies on reports from English sources only and not from Arabic newspapers and press releases, thus not capturing all Iraqi deaths. Such weaknesses in methodology lead to fewer Iraqi civilian casualties being counted than is actually the case. [17] This method however, is used by the Iraq Body Count [IBC] and the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count [ICCC]. IBC reports between 91,466 and 99,861 excess civilian casualties from 19 March 2003 to 21 April 2009. [18] ICCC reports 40,662 excess civilian casualties from March 2005 to 10 March 2008. [19] The discrepancy of reported excess civilian casualties between IBC and ICCC is, at worst, 59,199.[20] The death of almost 60,000 Iraqi civilians is disputed. Political beliefs are likely to drive the number of Iraqi civilian casualties reported by IBC and ICCC. The decision of whether or not civilian militia and their victims are included in the count is made by opinionated individuals of IBC and ICCC. For example, recent figures from the Iraqi Survey Group report that approximately 60,000 Iraqi civilians have been recruited into the Mahdi Army since the 2003 US- led invasion. The issue of whether or not civilian militia, such as the Mahdi Army, should be included in the count has been largely contested. 11 civilian militias were killed by American troops near Sadr City, a Mahdi Army stronghold, on 21 May 2008. [21] The decision of whether the 11 civilian militia are freedom fighters or terrorists, and thus included in the count or not, was made by IBC and ICCC. The ICCC relies on press reports by the US Department of Defense, the US CENTCOM (under the control of the US Secretary of Defense), and the British Ministry of Defense. The UK argues that victims of civilian militia groups, such as the Mahdi Army, and victims of the civil war in Iraq should not be included in the count of excess civilian casualties of the Iraq War. [22]Therefore, the states of the US and the UK more than likely did not include the 11 civilian militia in the count and, consequently, the ICCC is not likely to have reported these deaths as civilian deaths. The case of the 11 civilian militia is just one example from many occurring every day, where the line between civilian terrorist and freedom fighter cannot be made and thus political opinions and agendas drive numbers reported. On the other hand, IBC is founded and run by anti-war activists in the USA and the UK. [23] The founder of IBC, John Sloboda, states, “We [IBC] were deeply deeply opposed to the attack on Iraq.” [24] Therefore, IBC is more likely to include Mahdi Army deaths in the count based on the argument that civilians are recruited to the Mahdi Army in specific response to the US-led invasion in March 2003. [25] That is, had the US and its allies not invaded Iraq then these civilians would not have been recruited, and thus not have died. Similarly, the decision of whether civilians killed as a result of sectarian killings and terrorist attacks should be included in the count is also largely contested.[26]The US argues that many civilian deaths are a result of the “competition between sects and ethnic political groups for economic and political power,” [27] and thus not a direct result of the US forces. For this reason, the argument is made that they should not be included in the count. The British Foreign and Commonwealth Office [FCO] argues, “The Iraq Body Count we do not regard as reliable. It includes civilian deaths at the hands of terrorists.”[28]Therefore, in light of the evidence that the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office is not likely to include the 11 civilian militia in the count and considering the ICCC relies on press reports by the British Ministry of Defense, there is no doubt that the ICCC does not include civilian militia and their victims to the count.