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Report No. 87913 Public Disclosure Authorized Understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Hydropower: the case of Cameroon Public Disclosure Authorized April 27, 2014 AFTEG Africa Energy Practice Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized i Understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Hydropower: the case of Cameroon Climate Risk Assessment for hydropower generation in Cameroon by Johan Grijsen With ii Contents Executive Summary 1. Introduction and objective 1.1. Objective of the Climate Risk Assessment 1.2. Previous studies on climate risk to Cameroon’s water resources 1.3. Outline of the report 2. Decision scaling methodology for a risk-based assessment of climate change impacts on WR 2.1. Top-down approach 2.2. Decision - scaling methodology 2.3. Identification of climate hazards and thresholds 2.4. Vulnerability assessment: Assessment of system response to changes in runoff 2.5. Climate Informed Risks: Estimating likelihood of climate conditions and hazards 2.6. Summary of the adopted methodology for Climate Risk Assessment 3. Hydrometeorological data for the five main river basins in Cameroon 3.1. Cameroon’s river basins 3.2. Runoff data 3.3. Precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration data 3.4. Trends and abrupt changes in rainfall across Cameroon 4. Runoff response to climate change 4.1. Assessment of climate elasticity of streamflow through regression analysis 4.2. Use of the aridity index to assess climate change impacts on annual runoff 4.3. Climate and hydrological modeling 4.4. Regression analysis of basin runoff, rainfall and temperature 5. Vulnerability analysis: impacts of future runoff changes on WR system performance indicators 5.1. Seasonal water management and hydro-energy generation model 5.2. Runoff elasticity of hydro-energy generation in the Sanaga basin 5.3. Runoff elasticity of the economic performance of Lom Pangar Hydropower Project 5.4. Target flow Nachtigal and additional seasonal storage capacity in Djerem Basin 5.5. Runoff elasticity of hydro-energy generation in other basins i 6. Climate change projections and impacts on runoff for the main river basins in Cameroon 6.1. Climate projections for the main river basins of Cameroon 6.2. Seasonal climate projections for Cameroon 6.3. Runoff projections from the Climate Portal 6.4. Runoff projections based on climate projections from the Climate Wizard 6.5. Runoff scenarios for the economic analysis of water and hydropower projects in Cameroon 6.6. CMIP-5 climate projections 7. Climate risks for hydropower generation in Cameroon 7.1. Hydro-energy Sanaga basin and EIRR Lom Pangar project 7.2. Lagdo dam in Niger Basin 7.3. Nyong and Ntem River Basins 8. Conclusions and recommendations References Annexes 1 Terms of Reference 2 Principles of climate change projections 3 Climate Risk Assessment for water resources development in the Niger Basin 4 Monthly runoff data series for key hydrometric stations 5 Annual and monthly data series of rainfall and temperature (CRU-TS 3.10) and runoff 6 Turc-Pike model for assessment of climate change impacts on annual runoff 7 Climate change projections for 2050 and 2080 from the Climatewizard ii Acronyms and Abbreviations AFTEG Africa Energy Unit of the World Bank BADC British Atmospheric Data Centre CC Climate Change CCKP Climate Change Knowledge Portal (WBG) CDF cumulative density function CGIAR Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research CRA Climate Risk Assessment εP Precipitation elasticity of runoff εQ Runoff elasticity of a performance indicator εT Temperature elasticity of runoff E Actual evapotranspiration E0 Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) EDC Electricity Development Corporation EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GCM Global Circulation Model (a.k.a. General Climate Model) GHG Green House Gas GRDC Global Runoff Data Centre, Koblenz, Germany GWh Giga Watt hour (energy) GWP Global Water Partnership H Head of power station (m) HP Hydropower IC Installed Capacity (MW) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management MINADER Ministry of Agriculture MINEE Ministry of Energy and Water MINEP Ministry of Environment and Protection of Nature MW Mega Watt (power) iii NRB Niger River Basin P Precipitation (mm) PANGIRE Plan d’Action Nationale de Gestion Intégrée des Ressources en Eau Q Runoff, streamflow (m3/s or mm/year) RCM Regional Climate Model RDM Robust Decision Making SDAP Sustainable Development Action Plan (for the Niger Basin) SRES Special Report on (GHG) Emission Scenarios T Temperature (0C) TFESSD Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development WatBal Water Balance (hydrological) model WBG World Bank Group iv Acknowledgments The Africa Energy Unit (AFTEG) of the World Bank has obtained financing from the Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD) – funded by Finland and Norway - for work towards “Understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Hydropower Generation in Cameroon”. This scoping study serves as a technical assistance to the Lom Pangar Hydropower Project to support the operation of the dam by the Electricity Development Corporation (EDC) of Cameroon. Historical climatological data as well as climate projections for the 21st century were obtained from internet sources, such as the CRU TS3.10 data set, the Climate Wizard, and WBG’s Climate Portal. Historical runoff data for about 20 selected sub-catchments in Cameroon were obtained from the Global Runoff Data Centre in Koblenz, Germany (GRDC1), as well as from the Electricity Development Corporation of Cameroon (EDC). The study was carried out by Johan Grijsen (Consultant Water Resources Management) and Hrishi Patel (Consultant GIS). It was managed by Daniel Murphy (TTL) with assistance of Gabriella Puz and later of Farah Mohammadzadeh of the World Bank. The report was presented to a validation workshop organized jointly by the World Bank and EDC in Yaoundé, Cameroon on December 4, 2013. Many valuable comments and suggestions were made by the participants, which have been incorporated in this final report. 1 The Global Runoff Data Centre, GRDC in the Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, 56068 Koblenz, Germany v Executive summary Main conclusion: the Lom Pangar and Nachtigal storage and hydropower projects in the Sanaga Basin are economically robust and climate resilient projects, but hydro-energy generated at Lagdo dam in the Benue basin may suffer a significant decrease due to climate change. Based on the presently available climate projections for the 21st century this study concludes that by 2050 the total long-term average hydro-energy generation by the Edea, Song Loulou, Lom Pangar and Nachtigal power plants in the Sanaga Basin could vary between -15% and +5% of the base case value (present hydrology); results for 2080 are similar. It is highly unlikely that hydro-energy generation would decrease more than 20% due to climate change. Most importantly, since the direct and indirect contribution of Lom Pangar to hydro-energy generation in the basin is overall fairly constant for runoff variations in the range of -20% to +20%, the EIRR is similarly not sensitive to runoff changes, unless decreases in runoff exceed 20%. In the worst case scenario the EIRR of the Lom Pangar project would be reduced with less than 10%, e.g. from about 14.5% in the base case (baseline post-1971 hydrology) to 13% under severe climate change impacts. Potential climate change impacts on hydro-energy generation at the Njock, Mouila and Memve-Ele stations in the Nyong and Ntem Basins are expected to be equally minor to moderate. The probability that the annual hydro-energy generation at anyone of these three plants would reduce with 20% or more is negligible. On the contrary, under the 2050 climate conditions there is – according to GCM projections - nearly 20% probability that the annual hydro-energy generation at Lagdo dam in the Benue Basin would reduce with 20% or more2 (30% probability by 2080). Thus, hydro-energy generation at Lagdo dam may suffer a significant decrease due to climate change, and is less climate resilient than Lom Pangar and Nachtigal. Objective of Climate Risk Assessment: This report presents a Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) for the five main river basins of Cameroon, focusing on the potential climate change impacts on water resources availability for hydro-energy generation, particularly in the Sanaga, Benue, Nyong and Ntem River Basins. Central and West Africa have experienced a marked climate variability in the 20th century and more distant past. Most recently, around 1970 an abrupt downward shift in precipitation is believed to have occurred, which reduced for example runoff from the Sanaga basin with about 16%. Lack of recent discharge records prohibits such assessments for other basins in Cameroon. However, even larger abrupt shifts were observed in the western part of the neighboring Niger Basin. Understanding the possible impacts of the present hydrological variability and the potential future changes in climate on existing and planned water resources and hydropower infrastructure is crucial for development planning. Therefore, the objective of this study is to carry out a CRA for the five main river basins in Cameroon and to assess the potential future impacts of climate change on water resources availability and hydro-energy potential in Cameroon. An effort is made to quantify the climate risks to future hydro- energy generation in the
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