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Globalization: States Are Interested in Going... Green? Investing Morphosys, the Metamorphosis of a Biotech Company

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Globalization: States Are Interested in Going... Green? Investing Morphosys, the Metamorphosis of a Biotech Company November 2019 #02 Creating Sustainable Value Understanding the markets Globalization: States are interested in going... green? Investing Morphosys, the metamorphosis of a biotech company Engaging in dialogues The Amazon, but not only: Mirova commits to the fight against deforestation Measuring Impact of our investments Understanding the markets Globalization: States are interested in going... green? Green New Deal: will Christine Lagarde and Ursula von der Leyen make Jeremy Rifkin’s dream come true? In his last book, renowned American long way to go: Jens Weidmann, Vice-President Frans Timmermans economist Jeremy Rifkin dreams president of the Bundesbank1, in charge of setting up a European of a Green New Deal on a global has announced his opposition to Green New Deal. Finance once scale. The scale may seem quite these measures. He had already again appears as an essential broad, but the ambition itself is expressed his disagreement with tool in the building up of this Green not so crazy. Although we will Mario Draghi’s accommodating New Deal: one of the first measures probably have to wait until the next monetary policy which was praised considered consists in turning part presidential election for the United by Christine Lagarde. This new of the European Investment Bank States to get back on track into a European Climate with the Paris Agreement, Bank, mostly thanks to a Europe already seems well €1,000 billion investment engaged in the movement. plan over the next decade. It is first and foremost The Green New Deal the case of the European seems to be really taking Central Bank (ECB). shape in Europe. However, Christine Lagarde did not Jeremy Rifkin appears to wait for her official entry have confidence in the into office on November 1st movement reaching the to take a firm stand on the global stage, and for one subject by stating in front particular reason: finance. of the European Parliament Indeed, the economist that the ECB needed to believes that pension funds take climate change into managing the retirement account as part of its savings of millions of objectives. Concretely, two workers around the world lines of action are being have initiated a fossil fuel considered. The first one divestment and renewable would be to specifically energy reinvestment target green bonds as part movement. These pension of the Bank’s buyback funds, with their €37,000 programs. The second one billion under management, would be to encourage represent a powerful lever regulatory development in terms of funding and aimed at considering transformation. green assets as part of Whether deliberately or the banks’ risk assessments, and ECB presidency is unlikely to bring under the influence of political consequently of their equity requi- back serenity within the governing incentives, green finance players rements. Both evolutions, should council... will have to scale up in order to they be put in place, would make The new president of the European meet these challenges! a significant difference regarding Commission, Ursula von der green finance and set off a most Leyen, also wants to put climate welcome pull factor for green emergency on the agenda. To this investments. But there is still a end, she put Dutch EU Commission 1 Central bank of the Federal Republic of Germany #02 –November 2019 2 Understanding the markets The OECD reveals its plan to tax tech giants Climate is one of several globa- lization issues that many public GRAPH 1 – S&P 500 COMPANIES AVERAGE TAX RATE EVOLUTION policies are trying to take on. The question of taxation - or the relative lack of taxation - regarding 40% tech giants is a global significant area of concern. All sectors except IT and real estate Despite the occasional conflic- 30% ting positions when it comes to defending one’s national champions against discrimina- 20% IT companies tory measures, the idea that it is essential to fight excessive tax optimization, which is made 10% possible by the meeting of tax havens and the exponential growth of dematerialization, is more and 0% more shared. In this context, the 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 G20 has decided to follow the OECD2‘s recommendations on the Source: Mirova/ Corporate reports subject in order to try to implement concrete measures in 2020. Two on a global scale for companies mental and social dimensions main potential solutions are under which are still able to benefit from into account for investors when it consideration: tax havens. comes to their choices of capital 1. taxing companies where they Climate and taxation are just two allocation, whether for ethical sell, even if they are not present examples among so many others. reasons or regarding medium and physically and; Both examples bring to light the long-term yields. 2. applying a minimum tax rate importance of taking environ- Market breakdown Bright spot on the political front Although the political climate the outcome suggested by polls… exhausted yet. worsened last summer, now the not always reliable-, the ratifica- The hopes for a US-China “phase clouds seem to be clearing up: tion of “his” deal would be very one” trade deal by the end of the the possibility of a hard Brexit is likely. If the Labour Party wins, a year is another element of optimism. shrinking by the day while the new referendum could take place, Actually, a deal on agriculture, hopes for a US-China “phase one” giving citizens the choice between financial services and currency trade deal that would be signed in remaining in the EU or leaving with seems almost secured. However, December were never as high. a new “soft-Brexit” deal that would the issue of technology transfer is After negotiating a new Brexit need to be negotiated - supposing not settled yet and would likely be agreement that ended up not that the Europeans are willing to. pushed back to second phase. The being ratified by the European and In any case, the market no longer short-term essentials to ensure British parliaments, Boris Johnson believes in the possibility of a stabilization, or even a global had no choice but to ask Brussels hard Brexit, as evidenced by the economic recovery, lie in the easing for a new exit date delay and to upswing of the British pound and of trade tensions, notably by avoiding call for snap general elections on of the UK domestic stocks, for the tariffs increase announced this the 12th of December. In case of which we believe that the appre- summer, which would do harm to a Conservative victory -which is ciation potential has not been global trade and business climate. 2 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development #02 –November 2019 3 Understanding the markets The negotiation process could issues. In this context, Elizabeth Such is the case for energy (ban/ still last a long time. Especially as Warren’s recent breakthrough in regulation on hydraulic fracturing), both the Democratic candidates the polls is quite impressive. She banking (return of the Glass-Steagall for the American election and the is neck-and-neck with Joe Biden. Act3), health (Medicare for All4) and Republicans seem to be agreeing Many sectors are on Warren’s radar Gafam5. on the matter. and could find themselves under Thi is not the case for many other pressure if she won in June 2020. An evolution towards macroeconomic stability? In the eurozone, the real GDP was However, reaching stability or even level in the five last decades. The up 0.2% during the third quarter a pickup in growth will require an notorious Manufacturing ISM7 was which represents a 1.1% rise at an upturn in manufacturing activity, at 48.3 in November, reflecting the annual rate. German and Italian especially in Germany. Some weakness of the industrial sector, economies are suffering from figures seem promising such as despite a rise compared to last trade conflicts as well as uncer- the book-to-bill ratio of the last month (47.8). tainty in relation to Brexit that Manufacturing PMI index6 of the Chinese GDP growth is still dece- severely impacted manufacturing eurozone, which was higher than 1 lerating (6% growth during the activities linked to exports. The for the first time in one year. last quarter, which represents the UK, alongside the US, is the main In the US, real GDP was up 1.9% at slowest rate since 1992) and Beijing trading partner of the eurozone an annual rate in the third quarter is well aware of the necessity to with 12% of exports in 2018. of 2019, in line with solid retail engage in additional measures to Apart from the industry sector, sales this summer. It should be support the economy in response the European GDP experienced a noted that after six quarters of to a decreasing demand against a relatively slow decrease compared contraction, there was an upswing backdrop of trade pressure. to previous years (around 1.8%), in housing investment in response However, the growth of the Chinese mainly thanks to the services and to the significant drop in mortgage manufacturing sector in October is private consumption sectors. In rates. On the other hand, capital higher than in more than two years8 this context, France is withstan- expenditures declined because and industrial production was on ding quite well. of commercial uncertainty and a the rise over the last months in weakening global demand. Job emerging economies, particularly creation has remained strong over in Asia. the last months and the unem- Source: Bloomberg ployment rate is still at its lowest GRAPH 2 – MANUFACTURING PMI AND US 10 YEAR INTEREST RATE 4.5 58 US 10 Year Interest
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