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Malaysia Telecom Malaysia Industry Focus Malaysia Telecom Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 12 Mar 2018 Cautious tone Industry service revenue fell by 1% in 2017 mainly due KLCI : 1,843.92 to weakness in prepaid segment Analyst TOH Woo Kim +60 32604 3917 Expect service revenue to either be flat or decline by a [email protected] a low single digit in 2018 Mobile operators are embarking on digitalisation and experimenting with digital MVNOs Prefer fixed-line operators; TM is our only BUY call Ending 2017 on a good note. Total service revenue for the STOCKS mobile incumbents fell by 1.0% in 2017. This was solely 12-mth Price Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%) attributed to DiGi (-5%) due to the sharp decline in its prepaid RM US$m RM 3 mth 12 mth Rating segment, while Maxis and Celcom were less affected and managed to record marginal growth of 0.8% and 0.5% Axiata Group 5.43 12,558 5.20 1.3 15.0 HOLD Digi.Com 4.75 9,439 4.20 1.7 (6.5) FULLY respectively. Continued SIM consolidation and prepaid-to- Maxis Bhd 5.92 11,818 5.35 (0.3) (7.5) VALUEDHOLD postpaid migration remain the key underlying trend for the Telekom Malaysia 5.66 5,436 7.10 (6.3) (9.9) BUY industry in 2017, leading to falling mobile penetration rate. TIME dotCom Bhd 8.30 1,233 8.60 (8.8) (3.5) HOLD Sources: AllianceDBS, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Flattish outlook for 2018. We expect industry service revenue Closing price as of 9 Mar 2018 to either be flat or decline by a low single digit in 2018 as voice and SMS continue to be cannibalised by rising adoption of data (~49% of revenue). The prepaid market should still be Axiata Group : Regional cellular operator challenging for DiGi given the headwinds in migrant workers Digi.Com : A Malaysia-focused cellular operator segment, while Maxis will suffer some revenue loss from the Maxis Bhd : Largest Malaysian cellular operator by subscribers termination of network-sharing agreement with U Mobile. Telekom Malaysia : Dominant fixed line operator in Malaysia Celcom will focus more on cost-optimisation initiatives in 2018 to TIME dotCom Bhd : A data-centric, fixed-line telecommunication improve its EBITDA margins which are below peers'. Lastly, we provider based in Malaysia serving enterprises and operators with expect the award of the 700MHz spectrum to be finalised in small presence in the retail broadband segment 2H18, with the three players getting equal share (2x10 MHz). Estimated subscriber market share in 2017 Incumbents are experimenting with digital MVNOs. All the Others/MVNOs three mobile incumbents have launched their respective digital 14% Maxis mobile services recently, but all these are operating separately as 24% MVNOs under different brands. This is perhaps to avoid cannibalising their existing subscriber bases and also to serve as U Mobile 12% ‘testing platforms’ to implement new innovative ideas. TM has also introduced a digital-driven prepaid mobile offering (called Unifi Mobile) where everything from SIM registration process to account management is done online via its mobile@unifi app. Celcom Domestic liquidity to support share price. Given the 22% DiGi relatively stable outlook and lower risks on spectrum in 2018, 28% we believe the share prices of Malaysian telcos will continue to be well supported by ample domestic liquidity, even though Sources: MCMC, Companies, AllianceDBS valuations are at a premium relative to regional peers. We prefer fixed-line operators due to their better growth prospects, with TM being our only BUY call. The current weakness in TM's share price, which could be due to uncertainties over GE14, offers a good opportunity to accumulate. ed: TH / sa:BC, PY, CS Industry Focus Malaysia Telecom 4Q17 results round-up EXHIBIT: Quarterly prepaid subscribers trend (in ‘000) 4Q17 results – ending FY17 on a good footing. 4Q17 results of 11,000 DiGi Maxis Celcom the Big 3 mobile incumbents were decent and in line with expectations. Overall, continued SIM consolidation and prepaid- 10,000 to-postpaid migration remained the key underlying trend for the 9,287 mobile industry in 2017, leading to falling mobile penetration 9,000 rate, a sluggish prepaid segment but offset by the growth in postpaid segment. 8,000 6,997 For fixed-line players, TIME reported stronger numbers due to a 7,000 strong recovery in its 4Q17 sales and lower taxation, while TM 6,724 results were inline. Subscribers net add for both players remains 6,000 robust given pent-up demand for high-speed fibre broadband. 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 Sources: Companies DiGi suffered the most in 2017. Total service revenue for the mobile incumbents contracted by 1.0% in 2017, and this was Relying on postpaid growth. Overall, trends for the postpaid solely attributed to DiGi (-5% y-o-y) due to the sharp decline in segment were healthy with growing subscriber base (for Maxis its prepaid segment. Maxis outperformed both of its peers and DiGi) and/or higher ARPU (Celcom). Competition in postpaid (+0.8% y-o-y) as it managed to grow its premium postpaid had been rational in 2017, and a lot of the growth can be subscriber base to offset a weaker prepaid segment. After two attributed to the strong surge in data usage. DiGi was the key years of decline, Celcom finally recorded a slight growth of 0.5% beneficiary of the prepaid-to-postpaid migration wave as it offers y-o-y in 2017 as it focused on attracting and retaining high-ARPU entry-level plans at the sub RM50-60 range. On the other hand, subscribers. although their subscriber bases were rather flattish, Maxis and Celcom still managed to increase their ARPU respectively, thanks Mobile players' service revenue, 2017 vs. 2016 (in RM m) to their strong franchise in the business/enterprise segment as well as better network quality. 10,000 +0.8% 2016 2017 EXHIBIT: Quarterly postpaid subscriber trend (in ‘000) 9,000 8,455 8,525 8,000 (5.0%) 3,500 DiGi Maxis Celcom 7,000 0.5% 6,226 5,914 6,026 6,056 3,000 2,853 6,000 2,822 5,000 2,500 4,000 2,480 2,000 3,000 Maxis DiGi Celcom 1,500 Sources: Companies 1,000 Incumbent lost market share in prepaid. Collectively, the three 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 mobile incumbents lost about 2.7m prepaid subs in 2017 - 1.9m Sources: Companies subs from the overall decline in prepaid market size and 0.8m subscriber share lost to UMobile and MVNOs. DiGi remains the No.1 player for prepaid segment, far above peers in terms of number of subscribers. However, given the lower ARPU of its subscribers, DiGi's prepaid revenue base (RM933m) was just slightly above that of Maxis (RM904m) in 4Q17. Page 2 Industry Focus Malaysia Telecom Baseline pricing and data quota relatively stable internet passes (from 5GB to 6GB) and replaced the previous vanilla free data allocation (8GB Weekend and 1GB/1 hour Minor tweaks only. Baseline pricing and data quota for both everyday) to a new one that centres around social media and prepaid and postpaid plans stayed relatively unchanged in messaging apps data usage. 2017. But, from time to time, mobile operators did introduce new promotions or made minor adjustment to their plans, The new Hotlink FLEX Postpaid. Maxis also introduced a new especially for free data allocation and add-ons. entry-level postpaid plan using its Hotlink brand (see Exhibit below). We think this is primarily targeted at customers who In postpaid, recent changes made by Celcom and DiGi were have low data usage but want unlimited call and SMS. As a aimed at driving incremental ARPU increase with upgradeable matter of fact, at RM55 for 6GB data, there are better options options (AnydayGB and GBoost). Celcom takes it a notch out there (with unlimited calls) such as the Digi's RM58 higher by bundling the upgrade option for free (RM10/month) postpaid plan (5+5 GB data) or Maxis Hotlink's own prepaid if subscribers commit to a 12-month contract. internet passes (RM60 for 8GB data and free data for social media or messaging apps). In prepaid, tweaks were mainly done by Maxis to align its plans with peers. It slightly raised the base data quota for its RM35 EXHIBIT: Comparison of postpaid plans by mobile operators (as at 9 March 2018) Ma xis Ce lc om DiGi U Mobile OnePlan 98/128/158 First Gold / Gold + Postpaid 80/110/150 P48/68 & Unlimited P99 Monthly c ommitme nt (RM) 98/128/158 80/98 80/110/150 48/68/99 Base data quota (GB) 15/40/50GB 10/20GB 10/25/Unlimited 5/15/Unlimited Weekend - 10/20GB Weekend (4G) - 15GB for OnePlan Music streaming - Unlimited Free data (GB) Video Walla TM - 30/100GB (free Weekend 4G - 10/25 98 Video streaming - 5/7/Unlimited 12 months) Ca ll & SMS Unlimited calls & SMS Unlimited calls Unlimited calls Unlimited calls Re ma rks / Othe rs Free Yonder Music OnePlan 98 - upgradeable to AnydayGB - RM10/month to Postpaid 80/110 - upgradeable to Unlimited P99 - Free data roaming 30GB all-day data for combine weekend & weekday All-day Internet + Extra 10GB for of 3GB in 12 countries. 30GB limit RM10/month data (free with 12-month RM10/month for Hotspot contract) Sources: Companies, AllianceDBS EXHIBIT: Comparison of monthly internet passes and prepaid plans by mobile operators (as at 9 March 2018) Ma xis Ce lc om DiGi U Mobile Hotlink RED All-New Xpax Prepaid LiVE Unlimited Power Prepaid Monthly internet passes (RM) 35/45 30/50 30/38/48 20/30/50 Base data quota (GB) 6/8GB 5/10GB 5/8/10GB 1.5/7.5*/12*GB FREE 10GB of Instagram & Facebook Xpax 50 - FREE Unlimited Music FREE Data for messaging apps OR 500MB daily quota for Facebook, Music streaming - Unlimited Free data (GB) Walla tm social media Twitter, & Instagram Video streaming - 0.5/2.5/10GB Promo till 30 Apr - Bonus 10/20 GB data for first 3 days LiVE - FREE monthly 10GB of Video + FREE unlimited data for Facebook, FREE 10GB of Facebook and 500MB FREE 10GB of Basic Internet & Music streaming quota.
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