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TELECOMMUNICATIONS Case for Consolidation

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TELECOMMUNICATIONS Case for Consolidation 11 August 2020 TELECOMMUNICATIONS Case for Consolidation In this report: Competition-driven consolidation on the cards? KINDLY REFER TO THE LAST PAGE OF THIS PUBLICATION FORIMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Tuesday, 11 August 2020 Alex Goh Senior vice-president, Equity Domestic [email protected] 03-2036 2280 Summary We have undertaken an analysis of consolidation prospects for the sector given the unrelenting price pressures in the cellular sector and increasingly in the fixed broadband market with the emergence of new players. Multiple synergistic benefits for consolidation, which could re-rate the sector and attract needed investments for upcoming 5G rollouts, are: Offering consumers a comprehensive suite of cellular and fibre broadband services to provide back-up support service support, especially for critical enterprise solutions; Revitalising top-line growth by lowering competitors, re-establishing monopolies or offering a dual-branding strategy; Intensifying cost efficiencies by reducing overheads given redundancies in head office, marketing and service stations; Generating economies of scale from a bulk purchasing and streamlining of cost centres; Improving investment and credit rating profiles from enlarged market capitalisation and stronger balance sheets. Various M&A permutations are possible among the 6 main operators with substantive network infrastructure and subscriber market share. We have narrowed down the possibilities into 3 scenarios: Scenario 1: Revisiting the Telekom Malaysia (TM) & Axiata re-merger. Assuming a 10% cost reduction would mean substantial annual savings of RM2.2bil and together with a targeted FY21F EV/EBITDA of 5x could drive up the combined market capitalisation by 52%. Scenario 2: Relooking the Axiata & Telenor-Digi merger. Management from the earlier abortive merger guided for 5-year synergies up to RM15–20bil in present value from network efficiencies, cost avoidance, procurement optimisation and economies of scale. This alone translates to a DCF enhancement of 24%–32% from the combined Axiata-Digi market capitalisation. Scenario 3: TM and Time dotCom merger. If the merged entity is able to reduce Time's operational costs by 20% while re-establishing TM's fibre monopoly in the metropolitan areas of the Klang Valley, Penang and Johor, we estimate that the merged entity's DCF/share could reach RM5.00, based on a WACC of 7.4% and terminal growth rate of 2% post-FY25F, implying a potential upside of 28% and catalysing a re-rating on TM. This could lead to an even larger consolidation given that Khazanah Nasional is a substantial shareholder for Axiata, TM and Time. A key hurdle could be the regulator, the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission’s (MCMC) refusal to grant approval for the consolidation in the fibre broadband market given its agenda to encourage more competition amongst the incumbents as part of its overall strategy to lower costs and deliver improved services. Hence, until such consolidation actually emerges, we maintain our NEUTRAL outlook on the sector given the unmitigated mobile competition amid escalating capex requirements against the backdrop of the National Fiberisation and Connectivity Plan (NFCP) agenda to improve national connectivity and affordability. For now, our only BUY is Axiata, given its low EV/EBITDA valuations and rising prospects for monetisation of its multiple businesses. AmInvestment Bank Bhd 2 Tuesday, 11 August 2020 Alex Goh Senior vice-president, Equity Domestic [email protected] 03-2036 2280 Summary We have undertaken an analysis of consolidation prospects for the sector given the unrelenting price pressures in the cellular sector and increasingly in the fixed broadband market with the emergence of new players. Multiple synergistic benefits for consolidation, which could re-rate the sector and attract needed investments for upcoming 5G rollouts, are: Offering consumers a comprehensive suite of cellular and fibre broadband services to provide back-up support service support, especially for critical enterprise solutions; Revitalising top-line growth by lowering competitors, re-establishing monopolies or offering a dual-branding strategy; Intensifying cost efficiencies by reducing overheads given redundancies in head office, marketing and service stations; Generating economies of scale from a bulk purchasing and streamlining of cost centres; Improving investment and credit rating profiles from enlarged market capitalisation and stronger balance sheets. Various M&A permutations are possible among the 6 main operators with substantive network infrastructure and subscriber market share. We have narrowed down the possibilities into 3 scenarios: Scenario 1: Revisiting the Telekom Malaysia (TM) & Axiata re-merger. Assuming a 10% cost reduction would mean substantial annual savings of RM2.2bil and together with a targeted FY21F EV/EBITDA of 5x could drive up the combined market capitalisation by 52%. Scenario 2: Relooking the Axiata & Telenor-Digi merger. Management from the earlier abortive merger guided for 5-year synergies up to RM15–20bil in present value from network efficiencies, cost avoidance, procurement optimisation and economies of scale. This alone translates to a DCF enhancement of 24%–32% from the combined Axiata-Digi market capitalisation. Scenario 3: TM and Time dotCom merger. If the merged entity is able to reduce Time's operational costs by 20% while re-establishing TM's fibre monopoly in the metropolitan areas of the Klang Valley, Penang and Johor, we estimate that the merged entity's DCF/share could reach RM5.00, based on a WACC of 7.4% and terminal growth rate of 2% post-FY25F, implying a potential upside of 28% and catalysing a re-rating on TM. This could lead to an even larger consolidation given that Khazanah Nasional is a substantial shareholder for Axiata, TM and Time. A key hurdle could be the regulator, the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission’s (MCMC) refusal to grant approval for the consolidation in the fibre broadband market given its agenda to encourage more competition amongst the incumbents as part of its overall strategy to lower costs and deliver improved services. Hence, until such consolidation actually emerges, we maintain our NEUTRAL outlook on the sector given the unmitigated mobile competition amid escalating capex requirements against the backdrop of the National Fiberisation and Connectivity Plan (NFCP) agenda to improve national connectivity and affordability. For now, our only BUY is Axiata, given its low EV/EBITDA valuations and rising prospects for monetisation of its multiple businesses. AmInvestment Bank Bhd 2 Table of Contents Telecommunications Sector ................................... 4 Axiata Group ......................................................... 18 Digi.Com ................................................................ 22 Maxis ………............................................................. 27 Telekom Malaysia ................................................... 32 Disclosure and Disclaimer AmInvestment Bank Bhd 3 TELECOMMUNICATION Sector report Competition-driven consolidation on the cards? 11 Aug 2020 NEUTRAL Alex Goh (Maintained) [email protected] 03-2036 2280 Rationale for report: Sector update Investment Highlights Unrelenting competition points towards consolidation. We have undertaken an analysis of consolidation prospects for the sector given the unrelenting price pressures in the cellular sector and increasingly in the fixed broadband market with the emergence of new players. Amid the intense mobile competition with U Mobile, Digi has halved its entry-level plans for both postpaid and prepaid packages in an attempt to stave off the loss in market share. In the fibre broadband market, TM’s unifi has been more aggressive in competing for market share with recent promotions of free 42’ Sharp TV sets and redemption of the RM500 penalty fee for switching from Maxis Home Fibre. In Peninsular Malaysia, Celcom and Digi have begun to target selectively market segments in the Klang Valley for their fibre-to-home offerings. Over the past year, more players, including TM, are beginning to encroach into Time dotCom’s niche target in high-rise and dense developments, including new property launches that will require much longer investment payback periods. Multiple synergistic benefits for consolidation which could re-rate the sector and attract needed investments for upcoming 5G rollouts, are: Offering consumers a comprehensive suite of cellular and fibre broadband services to provide bundling promotions and back- up support service support, especially for critical enterprise solutions; Revitalising top-line growth by lowering competitors, re-establishing monopolies or offering a dual-branding strategy; Intensifying cost efficiencies by reducing overheads given redundancies in head office, marketing and service stations; Generating economies of scale from bulk purchasing and streamlining of cost centres; Improving investment and credit rating profiles from enlarged market capitalisation and stronger balance sheets. Various M&A permutations are possible among the 6 main operators with substantive network infrastructure and subscriber market share. Amongst the operators, we view Maxis, which currently has the leading market and revenue share, as not a likely candidate for M&A. Over the past years, Maxis has successfully leveraged its convergence strategy with fibre offerings, premium cellular connectivity and strong customer
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