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Global Smartphones 5G to Drive Smartphone Recovery to 1.64Bn Units by 2022E

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Global Smartphones 5G to Drive Smartphone Recovery to 1.64Bn Units by 2022E 5 November 2019 Global EQUITIES Global smartphones 5G to drive smartphone recovery to 1.64bn units by 2022E Key points Smartphone market demand recovery starting 2H20 as 5G smartphone adoption accelerates with 230m/584m units in 2020E/2021E. Trend 1: 5G component $ content increase. Our top buys: Advantest, KYEC, Murata, Samsung E, SEMCO, Shengyi, TDK, TSMC and Win Semi. Inside Trend 2: $ content growth with multi-camera specs upgrade. Top buys: Largan, Semco, Sony and new initiations Sunny Optical and Q Tech. Focus charts 2 Investment summary 3 Smartphone recovery driven by 5G 11 Smartphone volume recovery driven by 5G Volume recovery benefits top six brands 19 We believe 5G smartphones will create a wave of replacement demand in the Smartphone trend 1: 5G $ content in coming five years. With few 5G premium smartphones launched in 2019 and components 26 more product and network roll-out announcements expected 2020, we see 5G Smartphone trend 2: multi-camera upgrade 30 smartphone shipments accelerating to 230m, 584m and 860m units in 2020, Appendices 35 2021 and 2022, respectively. We forecast overall smartphone demand in 2019 Sunny Optical (2382 HK) 45 will decline by 1.7% prior to 5G network readiness and total volume demand will Q Technology Group (1478 HK) 72 recover by 0.5%, 2.6% and 4.0% to 1.53bn, 1.58bn and 1.64bn units in 2020-22E, AAC Technologies (2018 HK) 93 respectively, on the 5G upgrade. The installed base of smartphones is now very large at about 5.1bn and 3.3 year old, and we expect replacement years to stay Analysts flattish at 3.4 years through the 5G upgrade. Macquarie Capital Limited Cherry Ma +852 3922 5800 Volume recovery benefits top six smartphone brands [email protected] The top six brands – Samsung, Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo – are Nicolas Baratte +852 3922 5801 consolidating the market, with a 70% market share in 1H19, up 3ppt YoY. The US [email protected] trade ban on Huawei has widely impacted sentiment but we expect the overseas Fiona Liu +852 3922 1368 market impact to be limited to Europe (Flagship), while Huawei’s mid-rangers or [email protected] priced\-down legacy models to still sell well in Latam and MEA. We expect Erica Chen +86 21 2412 9024 Huawei’s smartphone volume to reach 240m, 254m and 323m units in 2019, [email protected] 2020 and 2021E, respectively, with global market shares of 16%, 17% and 21%. Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited 5G to increase $ content in select components Damian Thong, CFA +81 3 3512 7877 [email protected] 5G smartphone will have double the amount of bandwidth compared to a 4G Hiroshi Taguchi +81 3 3512 7867 smartphone; as a result, we expect the silicon content $ value including SoC/ [email protected] baseband, front-end RF to increase by 30-35% while expanding demand for passives, substrates and battery. Per Tech Insight, Sub-6GHz 5G-specific Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch components in a flagship smartphone cost about US$65 more compared to the Patrick Liao +886 2 2734 7515 [email protected] 4G version. Our top picks for the 5G theme are: Advantest, KYEC, Murata, Samsung E, SEMCO, Shengyi, TDK, TSMC and Win Semi. Kaylin Tsai +886 2 2734 7523 [email protected] Multi-camera upgrades drive volume and ASP growth Jeffrey Ohlweiler +886 2 2734 7512 [email protected] We have surveyed a total of 132 smartphones launched in 2019 by the top six vendors. About 20% of front cameras use motorised pop-up design; over 60% of Macquarie Securities Korea Limited back cameras are triple or quad cameras; 50% of the main cameras use Daniel Kim +82 2 3705 8641 [email protected] resolution lenses above 40-48MP; over 40% of the new devices use under- display fingerprint sensors. On average, there are 3.7 cameras per device, with Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. 1.0 front camera and 2.7 back cameras. Over 2019/20/21E, we forecast triple- Ben Shane Lim +60 3 2059 8868 camera penetration to reach 18%/34%/45%, while quad-camera upgrade could [email protected] happen in parallel with 1%/6%/16%. Our top picks within the camera supply chain are: Largan, Semco, Sony, Sunny Optical and Q Tech. Please refer to page 113 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research Global smartphones Focus charts Fig 1 Smartphone shipment by 3G/4G/5G technology Fig 2 Smartphone market share of the top six brands (m units) 1,800 100% 18% 1,600 90% 24% 33% 29% 80% 36% 1,400 44% 41% 9% 1,200 70% 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 1,000 60% 7% 8% 10% 3% 6% 6% 7% 9% 50% 2% 5% 8% 800 5% 6% 8% 12% 4% 13% 600 40% 12% 16% 14% 14% 13% 400 30% 17% 21% 7% 9% 10% 13% 16% 200 20% 0 10% 23% 21% 21% 19% 20% 21% 22% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 3G 4G 5G Samsung Huawei Apple Xiaomi Vivo Oppo Others Source: Gartner, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: Gartner, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Fig 3 Logic semi and RF in smartphone value Fig 4 Camera industry value and % of total (US$bn) (US$bn) 77.6 80.0 75.5 71.6 60 8% 66.1 70.0 63.0 48.6 7% 62.2 62.3 50 57.0 58.3 45.4 60.0 41.4 6% 40 37.1 50.0 33.1 5% 36.0 40.0 32.3 32.9 30 4% 28.9 22.8 23.5 30.0 26.4 21.3 21.9 3% 16.7 20 15.5 20.0 14.3 15.6 12.9 2% 10.0 10 1% 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E - 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Logic semi RF Industry value - camera % of total smartphone value Source: Gartner, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: Gartner, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Fig 5 Top picks with Outperform ratings China/ Hong Kong Korea Japan Taiwan 5G top picks Antenna SEMCO (009150 KS) Back end JCET (600584 CH) ASE (3711 TT) KYEC (2449 TT) Baseband, AP Samsung Elec (005930 KS) TSMC (2330 TT) Battery Samsung SDI (006400 KS) TDK (6762 JP) GaAs foundry WinSemi (3105 TT) Passives SEMCO (009150 KS) Murata (6981 JP) PCB, substrate Shengyi (600183 CH) SEMCO (009150 KS) RF component Murata (6981 JP) SPE Advantest (6857 JP) Camera upgrade top picks Camera module Sunny Optical (2382 HK) SEMCO (009150 KS) Q Tech (1478 HK) Lens Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Largan (3008 TT) Sensor Sony (6758 JP) Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, November 2019 5 November 2019 2 Macquarie Research Global smartphones Investment summary Smartphone volume recovery • 5G smartphones could create a wave of replacement demand in the coming five years. We estimate 5G smartphone volume will reach 230m units in 2020 and 1.29bn units by 2024, with penetration reaching 76% of smartphone shipments. • We expect global smartphone volumes to decline by 1.7% in 2019 but to recover by 0.5%, 2.6% and 4.0% in 2020, 2021 and 22E to 1.53bn, 1.58bn and 1.64bn units, respectively, driven by 5G adoption and a handful of better specs, cameras being the most salient. • Smartphone penetration as a percentage of installed base is at 64% globally in 2019, with a massive installed base of 5.1bn phones, on our estimates, which is ageing rapidly from 2.6 years in 2015 to 3.3 years old in 2019. This is why the market is consolidating, with the top six brands growing and virtually all others declining. We believe the 4G to 5G upgrade will slow the replacement cycle to about 3.4 years over 2020-23E as increasing penetration of 5G network and services prompts consumers to upgrade their devices. • Smartphone ASP has been increasing at an average of 7.3% in the past three years to US$302 in 2019 as consumer’s trade up. We think 5G smartphone affordability will not hinder adoption. The initial cost increase from 4G to 5G is about US$65 for premium phones. Blended ASP is expected to reach US$325, US$350 and US$366 over 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. • We see smartphone industry value witnessing a five-year CAGR of 7.4%, from US$462bn in 2019 (ASP US$302 x 1.53bn units) to US$638bn in 2023 (ASP US$356 x 1.68bn units). Fig 6 Smartphone shipment by 3G/4G/5G technology Fig 7 Smartphone shipment by 3G/4G/5G technology (m units) (m units) 1,600 1,800 1,400 1,600 1,200 1,400 1,000 1,200 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 3G 4G 5G 3G 4G 5G Source: Gartner, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: Gartner, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Fig 8 Smartphone volume and ASP Fig 9 Smartphone industry value and growth (m units) (US$) (US$ bn) 1,750 400 700 638 655 14% 1,682 1,693 1,700 380 601 1,640 600 551 12% 1,650 360 499 1,577 462 10% 1,600 1,555 340 500 446 1,537 1,537 412 1,550 1,529 320 8% 1,496 400 370 366 1,500 300 6% 1,450 1,424 280 300 4% 1,400 260 200 2% 1,350 240 1,300 220 100 0% 1,250 200 0 -2% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E2020E2021E2022E2023E2024E 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Smartphone volume ASP (RHS) Industry value YoY (RHS) Source: Gartner, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Source: Gartner, Macquarie Research, November 2019 5 November 2019 3 Macquarie Research Global smartphones Volume recovery benefits top six smartphone brands • Huawei’s still growing despite the trade ban.
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