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Download the Nickel Data (518KB PDF) 13.1 Summary Figure 13.1: Recent nickel prices and LME stock level trends . The 2020 nickel price is estimated to be US$13,600 a tonne, down 400 20,000 2 per cent on 2019. Prices are forecast to recover to US$15,600 a tonne in 2022, fuelled by returning consumption growth. 300 15,000 . New projects and potential restarts are expected to lift Australia’s export volumes from 231,000 tonnes in 2019–20 to a forecast 253,000 tonnes in 2021–22, up an average 6 per cent a year (see Australia section). 200 10,000 . Australia’s nickel export earnings are expected to rise with higher export volumes and recovering prices, reaching a forecast $4.4 billion in US$ a tonne 2021– 22, up from $3.8 billion in 2019–20. Stocks tonnes)(thouosand 100 5,000 13.2 Prices 0 0 Nickel prices recover COVID-19 related losses Dec–18 Jun–19 Dec–19 Jun–20 Dec–20 Nickel prices have continued to recover from the March lows, reaching LME stocks Price (rhs) US$16,200 in late November, the highest price in over two years. Rising stainless steel production in China and Indonesia, as well as expectations Source: Bloomberg (2020); London Metal Exchange (2020) of stimulus spending, and a weaker US dollar have supported a rebound in prices, even as stock levels have remained stable (Figure 13.1). Figure 13.2: Nickel price and stock levels 30 21,000 Continued consumption momentum is expected to support nickel prices for the remainder of 2020. The December quarter 2020 LME spot price average is estimated at US$15,300 a tonne, up 8 per cent quarter-on- quarter but down 1 per cent year-on-year. The full year 2020 price is 20 14,000 estimated at US$13,600 a tonne, down 2 per cent on the 2019 price of US$13,900 a tonne (Figure 13.2). This price fall reflects the market surplus that arose in 2020, as significant consumption losses and reductions in 10 7,000 US$ a tonne stainless steel output occurred. Weeks of consumption While nickel prices are currently weighed down by the market surplus, expectations of future market growth and potential market tightness could 0 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 push higher prices over the outlook period. In 2022, the nickel price is Total stocks LME nickel price (rhs) forecast to average US$15,600 a tonne, up 13 per cent in 2021 and Notes: Total stocks include warehouse and estimated privately held stocks. 2 per cent in 2020. Source: Bloomberg (2020); London Metal Exchange (2020); S&P Platts Global (2020); Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (2020) Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2020 124 13.3 World consumption Figure 13.3: Quarterly refined nickel consumption by major country COVID-19 and market disruptions weigh on nickel use in 2020 250 Nickel consumption is estimated to contract by 5 per cent to 2.3 million tonnes in 2020, after significant COVID-19 related consumption 200 losses in the first half of 2020 (Figure 13.3). Going forward, growth is expected to be driven by strong economic activity and growing markets for 150 nickel used in batteries. In 2022 world consumption is forecast to be 2.6 million tonnes, up an average 7 per cent a year (Figure 13.5). 100 Strong stainless steel production marks a recovery in China’s consumption tonnes Thousand 50 China accounts for just over half of world nickel consumption and a strong recovery in consumption has overcome COVID-19 related shutdowns in 0 the March quarter and import shortages from Indonesia. In the year to Sep–17 Mar–18 Sep–18 Mar–19 Sep–19 Mar–20 Sep–20 September consumption was 990,000 tonnes, consistent with 2019 levels. China Rest of world European Union Japan Indonesia United States This recovery has been evident for several months, with October stainless steel production up 12 per cent year-on-year. Recent price increases for Source: International Nickel Study Group (2020); Department of Industry, Science, Energy stainless steel inputs may weigh on December quarter production. Overall, and Resources (2020) China’s full year consumption is forecast to be 1.3 million tonnes in 2020, stable on 2019 levels. Figure 13.4: Forecast nickel consumption by use 1,600 Other consumption markets slower to recover Consumption in other major markets fell more sharply over the year to September 2020, with consumption in Europe and the US down 1,200 18 per cent and Japan down 7 per cent. World consumption excluding China is forecast to fall by 7 per cent to 990,000 tonnes in 2020. 800 Economic recovery and battery demand boosts future consumption Nickel consumption is forecast to increase over the outlook period, as a Thousand tonnes Thousand 400 gradual economic recovery and ongoing stimulus spending support consumption growth, which is expected to be led by China. Expanding use of nickel in batteries is also expected to support consumption, though the 0 timing of this growth will be dependent on battery chemistry, battery costs 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 and government policies supportive towards EVs (Figure 13.4). Class I Stainless steel Other Batteries refined nickel is used in high-grade batteries to improve energy density, Source: International Nickel Study Group (2020); Department of Industry, Science, Energy however use of nickel free batteries is growing (see lithium chapter). and Resources (2020); BloombergNEF (20200 Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2020 125 13.4 World production Figure 13.5: Forecast for world refined nickel market Mine production falls in 2020 with production interruptions 3,000 Mine production has broadly recovered following COVID-19 related mine 2,500 closures in the first half of 2020. Despite this, mine production is estimated to fall by 6 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes in 2020. Structural changes in 2,000 world exports — due to Indonesia’s export ban — have been broadly accommodated by increased production from the Philippines. However, 1,500 recent COVID-19 outbreaks and the typhoon season may weigh on productive capacity and exports from the Philippines. 1,000 Thousand tonnes Thousand Going forward, mine production is expected to grow, as new refinery 500 capacity in Indonesia creates a market for domestic mined output. Mine production is forecast to grow an average 7 per cent a year over the 0 outlook period, to reach 2.7 million tonnes in 2022. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Rest of world China Indonesia Japan Refined production stable in 2020 before strong growth in 2021 and 2022 Russia World Consumption Additions to refinery capacity are expected to marginally outweigh 2020 refinery outages, resulting in refined production increasing by 1 per cent in Source: International Nickel Study Group (2020); Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (2020) 2020 to reach 2.4 million tonnes. This follows three years of 9 per cent annual growth. Continued investment momentum in refinery capacity in F6igure 13. : Refined nickel output by major producing country China and Indonesia is expected to drive refined production, growing 200 4 per cent a year to 2.6 million tonnes in 2022 (Figure 13.5). Refined production boosted by Indonesia 150 Despite COVID-19 related shutdowns and nickel consumption losses, refined production expanded in 2020, due to policy-induced production rises in Indonesia. World refined production was 1.8 million tonnes over 100 the year to September 2020, up by 2 per cent year-on-year (Figure 13.6). This growth was primarily from Indonesia, where refined production tonnes Thousand 50 increased 50 per cent in the year to September, reaching 400,000 tonnes. China accounts for a third of world refined production, but has seen 0 production fall 11 per cent through the year to September 2020, due to Sep–17 Mar–18 Sep–18 Mar–19 Sep–19 Mar–20 Sep–20 constrained access to concentrate imports. Rest of world production has China Rest of world Indonesia Japan Russia also decreased with lower output from New Caledonia, including from Source: International Nickel Study Group (2020); Department of Industry, Science, Energy Glencore’s Koniambo nickel plant. and Resources (2020) Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2020 126 Growth on the horizon for Indonesia’s refinery capacity 13.5 Australia In January 2020, the Indonesian government introduced a ban on nickel Volumes growth support higher export earnings ores and concentrate exports, in order to promote the development of After reaching $3.8 billion in 2019–20, nickel export earnings are forecast Indonesia’s nickel downstream capacity: including refinery, nickel pig iron to remain stable in in 2020–21 before reaching $4.4 billion in 2021–22 and stainless steel capacity. Initial impacts of the ban have seen domestic (Figure 13.8). Continued growth in export volumes and modest price concentrate sales fall considerably (Figure 13.7). However, refinery increases are expected to support this growth. production is expanding with a number of projects underway, including projects at the Weda Bay nickel smelting park. Three smelting plants at Total nickel export volumes are forecast to rise from 231,000 tonnes in Weda Bay started production this year, and annual production capacity is 2019–20 to 253,000 tonnes in 2021–22, up an average 6 per cent a year. expected to double in 2021, up from 110,000 tonnes. Although some Production from new projects, as well as expansions and restarts, are projects have been delayed due to COVID-19 labour restrictions and low expected to support this growth. nickel prices, capacity additions are expected over the outlook period.
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