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Can We Finance the Energy Transition?*

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Can We Finance the Energy Transition?* CADMUS, Volume 2, No.4, April-May 2015, 162-183 Can we Finance the Energy Transition?* Ian Johnson Former Secretary General, Club of Rome; Member, Board of Trustees, World Academy of Art & Science Abstract The energy sector is pivotal to our aspirations for a sustainable planet and yet two major challenges face policymakers worldwide. The first is to decide what set of technical choices provide the best solution to meet social, economic and environmental agendas; and the second is to decide how these choices can be financed. The bulk of new energy demand will come from the emerging economies where energy demand is expected to increase by 40% over the coming three decades and to have doubled by the middle of the century. However for a number of reasons the investment needs of the energy sector are likely to rise even faster than overall energy demand. This is due to a number of factors over and above the increase in demand and described in the paper, including, inter alia, subsidized prices; the substitution of traditional energy for modern energy; the growth in peak demand in the electricity sector; the rising costs of securing primary energy resources; and the urgent need to replace vintage capital stock (including the decommissioning of nuclear power plants), especially in the developed countries. Clean energy investment will also incur high upfront investment costs in order to reduce long-term recurrent costs (fuel and maintenance). High priority must be given to energy demand management (both to reduce energy use and to reduce energy capital) and investment in upgrading of existing capital stock can provide strong and quick returns. However, the net result of the long-term demand on the energy sector is that investment needs will grow dramatically, from around US $1.6 trillion per annum to over US $2 trillion per annum. The financial challenge is considerable. A level playing field is required that encourages greater competition of technology choice on the basis of correct pricing signals. It will require changes in subsidy policies in order to release finance and to encourage efficient investment; adherence to least-cost planning and investment decisions; changes in decision-tools especially the use of high discount rates and inadequate accounting rules; a stable and appropriate price for carbon, the largest economic externality in the sector; and a major uplift in efforts to conserve both energy and capital. Innovative schemes between public and private finance should be deepened. Long term institutional capital (such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds) are an important growth area for energy funding. “Green bonds” have shown promise and are growing fast. Public finance, bilateral and multi-lateral, must be increased to address the major public good issue of climate change. However, at heart, lies a financial sector not equipped to provide finance to the real economy and to the kind of investment streams outlined in this report: an overhaul * This note was originally submitted to the Annual General Meeting of the Club of Rome in Mexico, October 2014 as a background note for the discussion session “World Energy Outlook and Sustainability in the World and its prospects.” 162 163 Can we Finance the Energy Transition? Ian Johnson of the global financial sector must underwrite any of the specific financing efforts proposed in this paper. 1. Background 1.1. The energy sector (together with its sister sector, food and agriculture) remains pivotal to the future sustainability of the planet. Energy is required for all walks of life in all countries and by all people. It is also central to concerns about local health and safety as well as environmental concerns, especially global climate change. 1.2. All governments have an expressed desire to provide their citizens with clean, affordable and modern sources of energy. In doing so there are two essential and interconnected chal- lenges facing policymakers. The first is what technical choices make the most sense from a social, economic and ecological point of view. The second is how (and indeed whether) the choices made can be financed in a manner that is feasible and fiscally prudent. 1.3. This paper explores both challenges and, while recognizing that technical choice is also a function of cost, notes that the financing challenge may be significantly more challenging than many realize and that, as a result, sub-optimal technical solutions may well result. It suggests that a major effort is required over the coming two decades to create the fiscal space for a major boost to energy investment on the one hand but also to place energy demand management as a much higher priority activity than it currently receives. 1.4. This note pays special attention to the electricity sector as the sector likely to be most influential in driving energy policy; in curtailing demand; and as the sector that will require the bulk of capital investment over the coming decades. 2. Global Primary Energy Resource Demand 2.1. Estimates vary with regard to the growth in energy demand but plausible scenarios suggest that a continuation of energy demand is likely. The past three decades have witnessed a doubling of energy demand, roughly in line with GDP growth. The current energy balance of primary energy consumption is broadly as follows: 78% fossil fuels (with oil at 33%, 21% natural gas and 24% coal); 5 to 6% from nuclear fuels; 17% from hydro resources (and other renewable energy resources) and the remainder 11% from biomass.* 2.2. There is a broad consensus on the likely trajectory of energy demand over the coming three or so decades. Most analysts predict around a 1.6% per annum increase in primary energy through to 2030 (a 36% to 40% increase) and a somewhat slower rise thereafter. This, in turn, implies a doubling of primary energy demand by 2030 and a trebling of demand by the middle of the century. 2.3. The main drivers of energy demand are: * There are many studies of current global energy consumption but most are within the ranges quoted in this note. See Gian Paolo Beretta “World Energy Consumption and Resources: an outlook for the rest of the century” Dipartiemento di Ingenehneria Meccanica, Universita di Brescia. Also International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook”; and IIASA: “Global Energy Assessment”. All are broadly consistent and for purposes of this note broad orders of magnitude rather than precision are in order. 162 163 CADMUS Volume 2 - Issue 4, April-May 2015 Can we Finance the Energy Transition? Ian Johnson • Population and demographic shifts with some 1.5 billion or so added to the global population (mainly from non-OECD countries) by 2030 and a large scale migration to urban areas. • Income growth and the distribution of income: GDP growth is anticipated to double through 2030 with a growing middle income class with increased energy needs. Structural changes within the global economy will also have an effect. 2.4. What is of vital importance is the fact that all projections note that almost all of the energy consumption growth in that period will be in non-OECD countries (between 90% and 95% by most estimates)*. Energy consumption in OECD countries is expected to grow but at a slower rate and, depending upon the nature of energy demand measures, could plateau or fall slightly. What is also of importance is that primary energy utilized to generate electric- ity is expected to grow at faster rates than energy overall. This, in part, reflects the need to provide those, currently underserved, with clean energy. 2.5. Such estimates provide a useful benchmark against which policies on energy demand management; on the energy transition from traditional to modern energy sources; and on investment strategies can be formulated. There is considerable uncertainty around growth projections and energy demand is highly sensitive to income.† On the other hand from a stra- tegic and global viewpoint general directions and understanding of choices are as important as reaching out for precision. There is no doubt energy needs will grow and under almost all plausible scenarios complex choices await the analyst and decision-maker. 2.6. If uncertainty pervades our understanding of overall energy demand it is also reflected in policies towards technical choice and fuel use. The past one hundred and fifty years have witnessed major economic, social and technological progress on the basis of fossil fuel based energy followed some sixty years ago by the promise of low cost nuclear energy. The present period is one of important inflection with regard to energy choice. New factors relating to shifting paradigms on investment and recurrent costs; the rising costs of fossil fuels; and the imperative of dealing with local and global environmental impacts have reshaped the debate and, indeed, investment strategies. 3. Global Energy Investment 3.1. While there is a clear link between the overall demand for energy resources and the required investment resources they do not perfectly co-vary. The demand for investment needs in the energy sector will be driven by a number of factors: i. Overall growth in energy demand; ii. The fundamental role of energy pricing; iii. The level and pace of substitution of traditional energy for modern clean energy; * In all scenarios the Asia and Pacific region dominates in terms of expected future energy consumption. † An article in the The Economist magazine (September 2014) noted that economic growth in many rapidly emerging economies had stalled and may rise at lower rates than previously expected. For purposes of discussion, modest changes to growth rates do not alter the overall assessment of an increasing demand for clean and modern energy. 164 165 CADMUS Volume 2 - Issue 4, April-May 2015 Can we Finance the Energy Transition? Ian Johnson iv.
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