Mapping of Drought for Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece
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Hydrological Sciences Journal ISSN: 0262-6667 (Print) 2150-3435 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/thsj20 Mapping of drought for Sperchios River basin in central Greece Spyridon Paparrizos, Fotios Maris & Andreas Matzarakis To cite this article: Spyridon Paparrizos, Fotios Maris & Andreas Matzarakis (2016) Mapping of drought for Sperchios River basin in central Greece, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61:5, 881-891, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2014.965175 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.965175 Accepted author version posted online: 16 Sep 2014. Published online: 26 Feb 2016. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 279 View related articles View Crossmark data Citing articles: 5 View citing articles Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=thsj20 HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL – JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, 2016 VOL. 61, NO. 5, 881–891 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.965175 Mapping of drought for Sperchios River basin in central Greece Spyridon Paparrizosa, Fotios Marisb and Andreas Matzarakisa aFaculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Albert-Ludwigs-University Freiburg, D-79085 Freiburg, Germany; bDepartment of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, Greece ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY The estimation of drought at certain temporal and spatial scales is useful for research on climate change Received 18 March 2014 and global warming. Greece is often affected by droughts, which are widespread spatially and tempo- Accepted 18 August 2014 rally due to the complex topography. Within the Greek territory, various complex microclimates are EDITOR created, linked with the spatial variances in drought phenomena. In this paper an estimation of drought Z. W. Kundzewicz in the Sperchios River basin was conducted using the Aridity Index (AI). Additionally, a seasonal analysis ASSOCIATE EDITOR of drought was performed. Meteorological data from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) were used as inputs for the AI equation. Spatial interpolation of AI for the Sperchios River not assigned basin was performed using a kriging method by the application of ArcGIS 9.3. In order to produce KEY WORDS required input data, several models (EmPEst, RayMan) and techniques (linear regression, interpolation) drought; aridity index; were combined. Finally, the meteorological data series were randomly separated into two periods and AI kriging; spatial analysis; was estimated for these sub-periods, in order to test the effectiveness of the drought index used. The Sperchios; Greece results indicate that the conditions prevailing in the area are humid, mostly affected by increased rainfall occurring in the mountainous section of the basin. Broadly, the humid environment in the upstream of Sperchios River prevents drought occurring in the lowlands of Sperchios River valley. Nevertheless, some differentiation appeared during the summer period, to which special attention needs to be given in order to prevent drought conditions. 1 Introduction which enhance evapotranspiration and reduce soil moisture, are important factors that have contributed to more regions Climate change is the greatest human challenge facing the world, experiencing droughts (Dai et al. 2004). as negative effects, such as flooding, heat waves, forest fires and The latest IPCC publications refer to the fact that regional- droughts have started becoming very serious (Hillel and to global-scale projections of drought remain relatively uncer- Rosenzweig 2002). The climate in arid and semi-arid areas tain compared to other aspects of the water cycle. There is a tends to be affected to a greater extent by human activities. low confidence in global-scale observed trend in drought or Emissions of greenhouse gases alter the composition of the atmo- dryness (lack of rainfall), owning to lack of direct observations, sphere resulting in global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice and on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate has chan- geographical inconsistencies in the trends. However, this ged, human activities have influenced this change and that the masks important regional changes and, according to the climate will continue to change in the future (Houghton et al. results, the frequency and intensity of drought have likely 1996). These changes in climate conditions have created con- increased in the Mediterranean (IPCC 2013). cerns for the subsequent effects on productivity of ecosystems, Determination of the drought concept has always been a brake biogeochemical cycles and the availability of water resources on monitoring and analysis of the phenomenon, and the parti- (Kirschbaum and Fischlin 1996). cular complexity compared with other natural disasters, makes it Previous IPCC publications indicated that the uncertainties difficult to predict the beginning and the end of drought (McKee in climate change impacts on water resources, droughts and et al. 1993). More than 150 definitions have been attributed to floods arise for various reasons, such as different scenarios of drought in the literature; for example, “Drought is a situation of economic development, greenhouse gas emissions, climate significant reduction of available water resources (compared to a modelling and hydrological modelling (IPCC 2007, Bates normal value) for a long time over a large area and is character- et al. 2008). According to the results of climatic models, ized by three dimensions: intensity, duration and spatial exten- (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) SRES scenarios A1 sion” (Rossi et al. 1992,Rossi2000). and B, precipitation within the Mediterranean is expected to However, the common denominator in all definitions is shift northward. In the southeastern Mediterranean areas, the that drought is a phenomenon characterized by insufficient precipitation in 2080–2099 is likely to decrease by more than moisture, which is due to rainfall deficit for a given period of 20% compared to the period 1980–1999 (IPCC 2007). This time. Initially, the problem relates to the period during which decreased land precipitation and increased air temperature, CONTACT Spyridon Paparrizos [email protected] © 2016 IAHS 882 S. PAPARRIZOS ET AL. an ‘accumulation’ of deficits is observed and then, how the 2 Research area and methodology rainfall deficit is related to the deficit in use of water resources. 2.1 Study area It is obvious that drought depends on the interaction of a physical phenomenon (less rain than expected and conse- The Sperchios River originates from Mount Timfristos (alti- quently less presence of water) with the function of aquatic tude 2327 m) which occupies a large part of Evritania and ecosystems for humans, in order to meet the requirements in Ftiotida regions, in central Greece. Having a general direction water (Mamasis and Koutsogiannis 2007). to the east, it enters the region of Ftiotida, crosses the There are very few direct measurements of drought related Sperchios Valley, between Mount Oiti and the western exten- variables, such as soil moisture (Robock et al. 2000), so drought sion of Mount Othrys, before discharging into the Maliakos proxies and hydrological drought proxies (e.g. Vidal et al. 2010, Gulf. Powered by a host of torrential streams that spring from Dai 2011, 2013) are often used to assess drought. The major Mount Vardousia (2286 m), Mount Othrys (1170 m) and drought indices are the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Mount Kallidromo (2116 m), the Sperchios Valley is a fertile which is based on the probability of precipitation for any time region with complex vegetation and land use (Paparrizos and scale (McKee et al. 1993), the Palmer Drought Severity Index Chatziminiadis 2010, Paparrizos 2012, Maris et al. 2014, (PDSI) which is a soil moisture algorithm calibrated for rela- Paparrizos and Maris 2015). Figure 1 presents the general tively homogeneous regions (Palmer 1965), the Reclamation position of the study area. Drought Index (RDI), which is based on a calculation of drought at the river basin level, incorporating temperature as 2.2 Climate data well as precipitation, snowpack, stream flow and reservoir levels as input, and the Aridity Index (AI) from the United Nations Daily values of precipitation data obtained from eight rain- Environment Programme (UNEP 1992), which is a numerical fall stations, and meteorological data from one indicator of the degree of dryness of the climate at a given station derived from the Hellenic National Meteorological location and use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration Service (HNMS) within Sperchios Valley were used in the data. The chosen proxy (e.g. precipitation, evapotranspiration, study. soil moisture or stream flow) and time scale can strongly affect In our case, we used daily data from the Lamia station as it is the ranking of drought events (Sheffield et al. 2009). the only one located within the Sperchios River basin for which The climate in the areas around the eastern Mediterranean, we have available data. At this point we need to mention the where Greece is located, has basically suffered the same lack of available observations that usually exists in Greece, as changes that the climate throughout the world has, especially the network of meteorological stations provides deficient obser- in the Northern Hemisphere