NZ Transport Agency Research Report Style Guide
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Technology related transport skill requirements and availability May 2018 (replacing the version released in March 2018) Julian Williams, Fiona Stokes, Hugh Dixon Business and Economic Research Limited Douglas Wilson, Prakash Ranjitkar, Sujith Padiyara, Bevan Clement, Puti Wilson Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland Stephen Hewett Transport Advisory Global, Beca NZ Transport Agency research report 639 Contracted research organisation – Business and Economic Research Limited ISBN 978-1-98-851293-8 (electronic) ISSN 1173-3764 (electronic) NZ Transport Agency Private Bag 6995, Wellington 6141, New Zealand Telephone 64 4 894 5400; facsimile 64 4 894 6100 [email protected] www.nzta.govt.nz Williams, J, F Stokes, H Dixon, D Wilson, P Ranjitkar, S Padiyara, B Clement, P Wilson and S Hewett (2018) Technology related transport skill requirements and availability. NZ Transport Agency research report 639. 102pp. Business and Economic Research Limited was contracted by the NZ Transport Agency in 2017 to carry out this research. This publication is copyright © NZ Transport Agency. This copyright work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. You are free to copy, distribute and adapt this work, as long as you attribute the work to the NZ Transport Agency and abide by the other licence terms. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. While you are free to copy, distribute and adapt this work, we would appreciate you notifying us that you have done so. Notifications and enquiries about this work should be made to the Manager Research and Evaluation Programme Team, Research and Analytics Unit, NZ Transport Agency, at [email protected]. Keywords: economic, future, intelligent, skills, systems, transport An important note for the reader The NZ Transport Agency is a Crown entity established under the Land Transport Management Act 2003. The objective of the Agency is to undertake its functions in a way that contributes to an efficient, effective and safe land transport system in the public interest. Each year, the NZ Transport Agency funds innovative and relevant research that contributes to this objective. The views expressed in research reports are the outcomes of the independent research, and should not be regarded as being the opinion or responsibility of the NZ Transport Agency. The material contained in the reports should not be construed in any way as policy adopted by the NZ Transport Agency or indeed any agency of the NZ Government. The reports may, however, be used by NZ Government agencies as a reference in the development of policy. While research reports are believed to be correct at the time of their preparation, the NZ Transport Agency and agents involved in their preparation and publication do not accept any liability for use of the research. People using the research, whether directly or indirectly, should apply and rely on their own skill and judgement. They should not rely on the contents of the research reports in isolation from other sources of advice and information. If necessary, they should seek appropriate legal or other expert advice. Changes made to version of report published in March 2018 Page 69, Section 7.5.1 – MITO New Zealand Incorporated correctly named. Page 69, Section 7.5.3 – Second paragraph deleted. Page 70, Section 7.5.4 – Sentence deleted. Page 71, Section 7.5.6 – Dot point three – second half of sentence deleted. Page 77, Table 8.2 – Driver occupation group total, 2020 count corrected. Page 81, Table 8.5 – Driver occupation group total and Repair and maintenance occupation group total, counts corrected. Page 93, MITO New Zealand Incorporated reference corrected. Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments of our peer reviewers, Professor Jacques Poot and Professor Edward Chung; guidance from John MacIlree of the Ministry of Transport; participants at stakeholder workshops held in July in Auckland and Wellington; other academics, officials and business people consulted; and our colleagues at our respective organisations. Contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................................................ 8 ITS technology scenarios for New Zealand .............................................................. 8 Skills gap assessment for New Zealand................................................................... 9 Training needs assessment for New Zealand .......................................................... 9 Projections to 2035.............................................................................................. 10 Abstract ................................................................................................................................................................... 11 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 12 1.1 Background ......................................................................................................... 12 1.2 Technological change – the internet of things....................................................... 13 2 Lessons for ITS skills demand from historic technology cycles .......................................... 16 2.1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 16 2.2 Summary of lessons ............................................................................................. 16 2.2.1 Lesson 1 ................................................................................................. 16 2.2.2 Lesson 2 ................................................................................................. 16 2.2.3 Lesson 3 ................................................................................................. 17 2.2.4 Lesson 4 ................................................................................................. 18 2.2.5 Lesson 5 ................................................................................................. 18 2.3 Lesson 1 – the S-curve ......................................................................................... 18 2.4 Lesson 2 – the composition of the S-curve ........................................................... 19 2.5 Lesson 3 – a change in skills follows a technological change................................. 20 2.6 Lesson 4 – a change in qualifications follows a change in skills ............................. 24 2.7 Lesson 5 – empirical projections provide insights ................................................. 25 3 Global future ITS technologies .......................................................................................................... 26 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 26 3.2 ITS technologies .................................................................................................. 26 3.2.1 Definition of ITS infrastructure technologies ............................................ 26 3.2.2 Definition of ITS vehicle technologies ....................................................... 27 3.2.3 The CVRIA framework for ITS technologies – infrastructure and vehicle .... 27 3.2.4 Main technologies – infrastructure and vehicle ......................................... 27 3.3 ITS technologies – coverage ................................................................................. 31 3.3.1 Levels of automation ............................................................................... 31 3.3.2 Timing of global penetration of autonomous vehicles .............................. 32 3.3.3 The impact of electric vehicle technology ................................................. 36 3.3.4 Transitional arrangements – platoons and road trains .............................. 36 3.4 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 37 4 Future skills gaps and training needs in the UK and USA ...................................................... 38 4.1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 38 4.2 UK and USA projected skills gaps ......................................................................... 38 4.2.1 UK skills gap projections to 2025 ............................................................ 38 4.2.2 US projected skills gaps ........................................................................... 40 4.3 Global projected training needs ........................................................................... 41 4.3.1 UK training needs .................................................................................... 41 4.3.2 USA training needs .................................................................................. 42 5 4.4 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 44 4.4.1 Global skills gap assessments .................................................................. 44 4.4.2 Global training needs assessments .......................................................... 44 5 ITS technology scenarios for New Zealand in 2035 .................................................................