and : Time to explore the 'two states for one people' solution

This division isn’t arbitrary, and could solve many of our problems. Splitting into Dan and Judea doesn’t even set a precedent.

By Eran Yashiv | Nov. 8, 2015 | 6:19 PM

Let’s undertake the following thought experiment: Israel divides into two states, Dan and Judea. The State of Judea is made up of , the south, the north (except for the and the Lake Kinneret area) and the settlements. The big cities are Jerusalem, , Be’er Sheva and Askhelon. Based on Central Bureau of Statistics data, this country has 3.4 million people.

The State of Dan is made up of central Israel, , , the Jezreel Valley and Lake Kinneret. This country has a population of 4.9 million, with the major cities Tel Aviv, Haifa, Rishon Letzion and Petah Tivka.

Thus, the borders are drawn as follows. In the north – west of , and south of Acre and Carmiel. In the center – west of . In the south – north of Ashdod and Gedera. Some towns could be swapped – could be part of Judea, Mevasseret Zion could be part of Dan – much like West Berlin was part of West Germany at the time.

This division isn’t arbitrary. It stems from the fact that the two populations are very different socially, politically and economically. The Greek nation also has two states – Greece and Cyprus – so splitting Israel into Dan and Judea doesn’t even set a precedent.

Executive-branch and judicial-branch institutions will easily be divided between the two. Dan needs a supreme court. Each state will have a parliament, of course. The army will remain integrated at first and may be divided later. At least then we shall know how many soldiers — regular, career and reservist — come from which part of the country and likewise for the budget. (A guess: Most of the quality resources come from the State of Dan.)

Here are some immediate implications of the partition: There will be a 75 percent majority of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties in Judea, based on the 2015 election results in its cities. Basically, the right-wing parties will face no opposition. With the passage of time, the State of Judea will become more and more traditional, if not a halakhic state – one based on Jewish law. It could become a Jewish version of or Turkey.

The State of Dan will be rid of the occupation, at least morally and politically; the joint army doesn’t allow a full waiver. Life in Dan will be secular, modern and quintessentially Western, similar to Spain or Italy. At the same time, Dan’s parliament will be complex: left-wing parties will not have a majority and would need the centrist or Arab parties to form a coalition government.

Judea’s annual gross domestic product would be between $20,000 and $22,000 per capita, similar to that of or Turkey. Dan’s would be $40,000 to $44,000, similar to that of Canada, Denmark or Belgium.

The Judeans will thus be relatively poor. They will discover that they live in a country with low productivity and underemployment that relies on outdated industries and government employment. There will hardly be any high-tech industry and export volume will be low. Taxes will not fully fund government operations and welfare payments, so the country will suffer a rising public debt. Greece’s painful experience is an example of the troubles awaiting the State of Judea.

The State of Dan will fare well economically. It will attract foreign investment and migration from Judea, doctors from Hadassah and Shaare Zedek hospitals for example, will increase. This migration will only make things in Judea worse.

The world will treat the two states accordingly. One will be seen as yet another problematic, religious, extremist state in the from which the international community distances itself; this will be reflected in foreign trade and aid, for example. The other state will be a liberal democracy that might even be invited to join the European Union.

World Jewry, currently based mostly in the United States, Canada, Britain and France, will also take the latter approach. Ultra-Orthodox in these countries are the minority. World Jewry will find it easy to identify with a modern liberal state, not with the Jewish Iran. (immigration) will therefore focus more and more on Dan.

Judean residents will soon find themselves in a poverty trap. They can crown a king, listen to rabbis and oppress the Arabs, but it won’t help them. The days of the Temple’s destruction will suddenly not seem so far gone.

Dan residents will enjoy greater welfare, identifying with the character of their country. Their burden will lighten because they no longer have to support the Judeans and their government’s follies. They will be able to speak freely without fear of being silenced, go to protests without being murdered, and even reach peace agreements – just like any normal in the 21st country.

Enough with this thought experiment, which will remain a dream. Such a partition probably will never happen, even though such partitions are being attempted in Europe (Scotland, Catalonia, Belgium). It will not happen largely because of the army and the occupation, which make partition impossible.

The experiment shows that the problem facing Israel isn’t just a breakdown into tribes, as described by many observers recently. The problem is that there are two entities here, one carrying the other on its back as the latter becomes more and more religious and extremist. Beyond the many rifts – religious-secular, Ashkenazi-Mizrahi, Jewish-Arab, sabras- immigrants, periphery-center – there are two states here. One is a secular, liberal, economically flourishing democracy, the other a religious-nationalist failing state. Talk of numerous tribes only blurs this basic distinction.

As a “clean” partition like the above scenario is impossible, the result will be many Dan residents leaving, mostly to the afore-cited four countries that are home to a majority of world Jewry.

Eran Yashiv is a professor at ’s Berglas School of Economics and head of the Neubauer Program on Economics and National Security at the Institute for National Security Studies.

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