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Building Skills for Net Zero

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Building Skills for Net Zero Industry insights and analysis Building Skills for Net Zero Report prepared by Eunomia for CITB March 2021 Study prepared by Eunomia from a commission by CITB. Prepared by Duncan Oswald, Sam Taylor, Dan Whittaker, Laura Moore, Tessa Lee, Mark Ward and Sean Hollowed. Approved by Sam Taylor (Project Director) Eunomia Research & Consulting Ltd Tel: +44 (0)117 9172250 37 Queen Square Fax: +44 (0)8717 142942 Bristol Web: www.eunomia.co.uk BS1 4QS United Kingdom Acknowledgements This research has been supported by universal recognition across the sector of the urgency of addressing the Climate Emergency. The interviews were all confidential, so unfortunately respondents cannot be named but particular thanks must go to Richard Bayliss, Will Aitchison, Emma Link, Ian Hill, Kelly Greer, Lulu Shooter, Osborne Energy and Selectaglaze Limited. Disclaimer Eunomia Research & Consulting has taken due care in the preparation of this report to ensure that all facts and analysis presented are as accurate as possible within the scope of the project. However, no guarantee is provided in respect of the information presented, and Eunomia Research & Consulting is not responsible for decisions or actions taken on the basis of the content of this report. The views expressed by research participants are their own and do not necessarily represent those of their employers. The study should not be regarded as a policy statement by CITB but should be read in conjunction with the accompanying Summary Paper. E.1.0 Executive Summary E.1.1 Introduction The United Kingdom is legally required to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 20501. Emissions from the construction sector account for as much as 40% of total national emissions, almost all of which will have to be eliminated over the next thirty years. This will require a co-ordinated programme of interventions, such as energy efficiency retrofit, deployment of low-carbon energy, on-site generation, energy storage and smart systems. These interventions will need additional workers, equipped with the skills required to deliver them. This research characterises the skills required and proposes a route map to develop them. The project has received input from a wide range of stakeholders, including: • Construction Industry Training Board • Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy • Committee on Climate Change • Scottish Government • Welsh Government E.1.2 Methodology The project has drawn on a wide range of sources of information, together with close collaboration with stakeholders, particularly CITB, BEIS and CCC. The four main elements of the methodology are set out below: E.1.2.1 Literature review An initial review of available literature was undertaken using the Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) methodology to search documents for references to terms relating to the research questions. As the project progressed, the initial REA was supplemented with materials suggested or provided by interviewees and stakeholders. Additionally, during the research, several related research projects have published reports, which have also been integrated into this research. 1 The Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019, https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2019/9780111187654 Building Skills for Net-Zero i E.1.2.2 Interviews A programme of 48 in-depth interviews was conducted across a wide range of respondents, representing government, industry bodies, construction companies, academics and other specialists. A topic guide was developed to ensure consistency, and interviews were recorded and transcribed to ensure accuracy. The findings of this exercise have been fundamental to development of the report, but were also used more immediately to inform a quantitative survey. E.1.2.3 Survey Based on the research questions and the findings of the qualitative interviews, an online survey was developed to gather more widely representative views. This received 281 responses and demonstrated a high level of engagement with the net-zero agenda. E.1.2.4 Model The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has supplied an illustrative scenario of decarbonisation interventions, sufficient to deliver net-zero emissions from the built environment across the UK. To this scenario was added the results of additional research to establish the time and qualifications required to deliver the interventions, including generic skill levels (e.g. NVQ) and specific qualifications (e.g. F-gas). These datasets were used to develop a model which calculates the number of workers, and qualifications required to deliver the scenario. The model itself is a deliverable of this project, so it can be used to assess the impact on training and employment of different scenarios. This report uses the output from running the illustrative scenario provided by the CCC, which is a balanced approach based on achieving the net-zero commitment. E.1.3 Findings Decarbonisation of the built environment can be usefully split into new-build and existing buildings. New-build tends to receive a lot of attention, and it is important that it should be considered, but in decarbonisation terms it represents around 5% of the problem and is much easier to address. Zero-carbon new-build solutions have been available for decades and can be built at a small premium on existing build costs. Given the government’s legal commitment to net- zero, every year that a requirement for zero-carbon new-build is delayed only builds in even greater costs in the future, and the cost and disruption of upgrading buildings is far greater. The overwhelming weight of effort required to decarbonise must be focussed on net- zero retrofit of existing buildings. Apart from some case studies and demonstrators, there is currently very little activity in net-zero retrofit, and very little capacity. Over the next 29 years, every building in the country needs to undergo a major retrofit, and the people who will do it need to be recruited and trained. This research shows that this can Building Skills for Net-Zero ii be done, but the amount of effort, and the degree of active planning and direction required, are unprecedented in peacetime. Net-zero retrofit can only be achieved by the diligent implementation of carefully designed retrofit programmes, which are effectively bespoke for every building. It cannot be achieved by the blanket application of support for individual measures, as has been the case in recent policy interventions. Net-zero retrofit costs tens of thousands of pounds per household, and there are almost thirty million households, so the total cost for the domestic sector alone will be hundreds of billions; with non-domestic retrofit adding around another 50%, the total cost of net-zero retrofit of the built environment is expected to be in the region of £1 trillion, or about £35 billion a year. This project is concerned with delivery of the skills required to achieve net-zero across the UK built environment. However, stakeholders and interview respondents representing a wealth of experience across the sector have been consistent in characterising what else is required before decarbonisation can be achieved. The UK will not achieve net-zero without making immediate and significant changes to the construction sector. There is currently little incentive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from buildings and not enough financial support to do so, the quality of work is not good enough and there are not enough skilled workers to do it. To achieve net- zero, all of these issues must be resolved. This report focusses on the last of these but, where commentary has been provided or recommendations proposed to address the other points, this too is reported. Taken together, the proposed solutions, or alternatives, are enough to deliver the net-zero commitment. In 2018 (the most recent year for which data are available), between 1.3 million2 and 2.7 million3 people were employed in the UK construction sector, depending on how it is measured. The model developed for this research is intended to provide insight into particular approaches to achieving net-zero, not to represent government policy. However, if the CCC scenario were followed without modification, the model predicts a requirement for a maximum increase in skilled workers of 93,348 in one year, which is a growth rate of 3.45% in one year. As a simple rate of growth, this is manageable, but of course it requires the training infrastructure to be in place. Also, this headline figure hides important detail. For example, the modelled scenario is based on a programme of energy-efficiency retrofit, focussing first on building fabric. Retrofit projects require co-ordinated design, which needs qualified retrofit designers, and retrofit designers need experience and take time to train, so there are some 2 Office of National Statistics Construction statistics annual tables 2018 dataset: https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fbusinessindustryandtrade%2fconstructionindustry%2fdatasets%2fco nstructionstatisticsannualtables%2f2018/csa2019maintables.xlsx 3 Construction Skills Network Report (CITB) https://www.citb.co.uk/Documents/research/CSN-REPORTS- 2019-2023/CSN%20report%20for%20UK%202019-2023.PDF Building Skills for Net-Zero iii bottlenecks that emerge from modelling the scenario. Similarly, there are issues that must be carefully managed around re-skilling and just transition: there are around 30 million homes in the UK and most of them would benefit from better insulation, but once they have all been insulated, there will no longer be much requirement for insulation installers. The purpose of the model is to identify such issues so that inputs can be modified, or steps can be taken to manage the consequences. Skills development in the construction sector is demand-led but there is currently little demand for decarbonisation, so little incentive to develop the skills required. If demand is created without planning for skills development, there will be a lag in the supply of skilled workers which will cause a delay to net-zero implementation that we cannot afford.
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