2020 Gubernatorial Overview: Finally in the Spotlight
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This issue brought to you by 2020 Gubernatorial Ratings Toss-Up MT Open (Bullock, D) Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican Cooper (D-N.C.) APRIL 23, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 8 Lean Democratic Lean Republican Sununu (R-N.H.) Likely Democratic Likely Republican 2020 Gubernatorial Overview: Parson (R-Mo.)# Scott (R-Vt.) Finally in the Spotlight Solid Democratic Solid Republican Carney (D-Del.) UT Open (Herbert, R) By Jacob Rubashkin Inslee (D-Wash.) Burgum (R-N.D.) GOP DEM Holcomb (R-Ind.)* Coronavirus has governors across America adjusting to a role Current Governors 26 24 Justice (R-W.V.) unfamiliar to most of them: national prominence. With the White House Not Up This Cycle 19 20 sending delayed, hands-off, and often contradictory messages on how to Currently Solid 4 2 respond to the coronavirus, governors have become the leading players in Competitive 3 2 politics and the media, wielding state power in ways not seen in decades. While most governors, armed with the benefit of time, can afford Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans to navigate the pandemic without feeling the full intensity of political considerations, a handful of governors will face voters this November, path to re-election after failing to draw any serious primary or general meaning the success or failure of their responses will be fresh in voters’ election opponents. Inside Elections’ Baseline for Delaware is 58 percent Beutler, R) minds. Democratic vs. 40 percent Republican. Solid Democratic. GOP DEM IN 2 (Walorski, R) If the coronavirus had hit two years earlier, or two years later, 36 states would have been in the final stretch of a gubernatorial race, with INDIANA. Eric Holcomb (R) elected 2016 (51%). In 2016, 115th Congress 240 195 MI 6 (Upton, R) WA 5 (McMorris governors balancing elections and crisis. But just 11 states are voting Democrats thought they were going to win this seat for the first time in Currently Solid 161 187 MI 7 Rodgers, R) for a governor this November, and fewer than five are hosting truly a decade after GOP Gov. Mike Pence jumped to Donald Trump’s ticket. (Walberg,R) competitive races at this stage of the campaign. Newly appointed Lt. Governor Eric Holcomb, just three months on the Competitive 79 8 MT A-L (Gianforte, The most vulnerable governor seeking re-election is Democrat Roy job, was selected by the state Republican Committee, beating out Reps. R) Cooper in North Carolina. Like many of his colleagues around the Susan Brooks and Todd Rokita for the nod. Democrat John Gregg, the Needed for majority 218 OH 14 (Joyce, R) country, he has received high marks for his coronavirus response, and he former state House speaker, was running again after narrowly losing to enjoys a significant lead over his GOP opponent. But that could shift as Pence in 2012, and polls showed him ahead. But Trump’s unexpectedly the pandemic plays out. strong election night performance across the country and in Indiana Republicans are looking to take over the governorship in Montana helped push Holcomb to a six-point win, 51-45 percent, while GOP for the first time in two decades. It’s an open seat because Democrat Rep. Todd Young handily defeated former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh’s Steve Bullock is term-limited. But the governor’s job performance could comeback bid in the concurrent Senate election by 9 points. boost the candidacy of his lieutenant governor and keep the office in Four years later, Democrats have all but written off the Indiana Democratic hands even though Montana is a GOP-leaning state. governor’s race as the state rapidly becomes less favorable to the party. Controlling a majority of governors doesn’t give a party additional After Democrat Joe Donnelly lost his Senate re-election campaign by powers, but Republicans do currently hold the top office in 26 states, 6 points to Republican Mike Braun in 2018, the Republican Baseline in compared to 24 for Democrats. Currently, it looks like Republicans might Indiana stands at 55 percent, compared to just 42 percent for Democrats. gain a governorship, but it is also possible this cycle could be a wash. Neither Gregg, Donnelly, nor Indiana’s most famous politician, former South Bend Mayor and presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg, chose to DELAWARE. John Carney (D), elected 2016 (58%). Delaware is still run this year. The only Democrat who qualified was Woody Myers, who Biden country, and incumbent John Carney, who worked in Joe Biden’s served as state health commissioner from 1985-90. Myers struggled to turn Senate office before serving three terms in Congress himself, is on a glide Continued on page 8 InsideElections.com Presidential 2020 Presidential Ratings 2020 Presidential Ratings Battlegrounds: Florida (Electoral Votes) (Electoral Votes) Toss-Up (66) Toss-Up (66) By Ryan Matsumoto Arizona (11) Florida (29) Nebraska 2nd (1) North Carolina (15) Arizona (11)# Florida (29) Nebraska 2nd (1) North Carolina (15) One of the first danger signs for Hillary Clinton on election night 2016 Wisconsin (10) Wisconsin (10) was when Donald Trump took and maintained the lead in Florida. As Tilt Democratic (36) Tilt Republican (1) Tilt Democratic (36) Tilt Republican (1) Democrats strategize about which states they can flip four years later, Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Maine 2nd (1) Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Maine 2nd (1) Florida is near the top of the list as a state with 29 electoral votes that voted for Trump by just 1 percentage point last time. Lean Democratic (14) Lean Republican (22) Lean Democratic (14) Lean Republican (22) Minnesota (10) New Hampshire (4) Georgia (16) Iowa (6) Minnesota (10)* New Hampshire (4) Georgia (16)# Iowa (6) Florida in Recent Elections Likely Democratic (8) Likely Republican (56) Likely Democratic (8) Likely Republican (56) Florida has consistently voted slightly to the right of the nation in recent Maine At-Large (2) Nevada (6) Ohio (18) Texas (38) Maine At-Large (2) Nevada (6)# Ohio (18) Texas (38)# presidential elections. In 2008, Barack Obama won the state by 3 percentage points while winning nationally by 7 percentage points. In 2012, Obama Solid Democratic (210) Solid Republican (125) Solid Democratic (210) Solid Republican (125) won Florida by a 1 percentage-point margin while winning nationally by 4 California (55) Alabama (9) Tennessee (11) California (55) Rhode Island (4) Alabama (9) North Dakota (3) percentage points. In 2016, Florida voted for Trump by 1 percentage point Colorado (9) Alaska (3) Utah (6) Colorado (9) Vermont (3) Alaska (3) Oklahoma (7) while Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by 2 percentage points. Connecticut (7) Arkansas (6) West Virginia (5) Connecticut (7) Virginia (13) Arkansas (6) South Carolina (9) Put another way, Florida was 4 percentage points more Republican than Delaware (3) Idaho (4) Wyoming (3) Delaware (3) Washington (12) Idaho (4) South Dakota (3) the nation in 2008, 3 percentage points more Republican than the nation in 2012, and 3 percentage points more Republican than the nation in 2016. D.C. (3) Indiana (11) D.C. (3) Indiana (11) Tennessee (11) Florida has also leaned Republican in recent downballot elections. Hawaii (4) Kansas (6) Hawaii (4) Kansas (6) Utah (6) The Inside Elections Baseline score, which measures average partisan Illinois (20) Kentucky (8) Illinois (20) Kentucky (8) West Virginia (5) performance in Florida over the past four election cycles, is 51.4 percent Maine 1st (1) Louisiana (8) Maine 1st (1) Louisiana (8) Wyoming (3) Republican and 46.9 percent Democratic. Maryland (10) Mississippi (6) Maryland (10) Mississippi (6) The 2018 Midterm Elections Massachusetts (11) Missouri (10) Massachusetts (11) Missouri (10) Florida Republicans were encouraged by the results of the 2018 New Jersey (14) Montana (3) New Jersey (14) Montana (3) midterm elections, when they won elections for Senate, governor, New Mexico (5) Nebraska At-Large (2) New Mexico (5) Nebraska At-Large (2) attorney general, and chief financial officer. New York (29) Nebraska 1st (1) New York (29) Nebraska 1st (1) In the Senate race, Republican Gov. Rick Scott defeated Democratic Oregon (7) Nebraska 3rd (1) Oregon (7) Nebraska 3rd (1) Sen. Bill Nelson by one tenth of a percentage point. In the gubernatorial race, Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum Rhode Island (4) North Dakota (3) 270 needed to win GOP DEM by four tenths of a percentage point. These losses were especially Vermont (3) Oklahoma (7) 2016 Results 304 227 heartbreaking for Florida Democrats since Nelson and Gillum had both Virginia (13) South Carolina (9) # moved benefi ting Democrats, 2020 Ratings 204 268 narrowly led their Republican opponents in polling averages. Washington (12) South Dakota (3) * moved benefi ting Republicans Toss-up 66 Republicans also won elections for attorney general and chief financial officer by 6 percentage points and 4 percentage points, respectively. 270 needed to win GOP DEM The only statewide victory for the Democrats was in the election 2016 Results 304 227 for commissioner of agriculture. Nikki Fried won by just one tenth of a # moved benefi ting Democrats, 2020 Ratings 204 268 percentage point against Republican Matt Caldwell. * moved benefi ting Republicans Toss-up 66 Continued on page 3 Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 2 April 23, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 2 most of the metropolitan areas of Tampa and Orlando, which are the It may be tempting to draw the conclusion that Florida has drifted third and fourth largest cities in the state.