MITMIT ICATICAT MM II TT II nn tt ee rr nn aa tt ii oo nn aa ll CC ee nn tt ee rr ff oo rr AA ii rr TT rr aa nn ss pp oo rr tt aa tt ii oo nn
ImplicationsImplications ofof VeryVery LightLight JetsJets forfor thethe AirAir TransportationTransportation SystemSystem
Philippe A. Bonnefoy [email protected] R. John Hansman [email protected] Global Airline Industry Program Industrial Advisory Board /Airline Industry Consortium Joint Meeting MIT November 4th 2005 MIT MIT Motivation & Introduction ICATICAT 20 000 Business aviation industry 18 000 Number of Fixed Wing 15879 • Segment of the General Aviation industry: 16 000 Turbine Business Aircraft 37 B$ annually (0.4% of 2000 GDP) 14 000 12 000 Employment: 511 000 9504 • Growing Industry 10 000 8 000
+67% in # of aircraft (turbine) over the last 10 years 6 000 4 000 • Emerged Models in the 1980s: 2 000 0 Fractional Ownership Programs 2 3 5 8 1 91 9 94 97 00 0 03 9 99 9 99 996 9 99 999 0 002 0 1 1 19 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 20 2 2 10000 Future entry of Very Light Jets 9000 Total Number of • New opportunities: 8000 Fractional Shares Large scale on-demand air networks 7000 6217 6000
5000 3834 • Need to understand the dynamics of entry of VLJs 4000 at the N.A.S. level and anticipate the potential impacts 3000
in order to allow a successful integration of these new models 2000 1000 3 0
6 7 9 0 3 92 95 97 98 01 98 98 988 98 99 991 9 99 994 9 996 9 9 999 000 0 002 003 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 Data source: NBAA, Fact Book 2004.
* Data source: The National Economic Impact of Civil Aviation, DRI·WEFA Inc., 2002. (GA figures include Business Aviation and Air Taxi) 2 MITMIT Very Light Jets (VLJs): ICATICAT A New Class of Aircraft
20 Citation 10 illion M 18 Gulfstream G200 Horizon
16
Gulfstream G150 Heavy Jets 14 Cessna Sovereign ) 3 0 ) LearJet 60 H800XP $ 0 (
12 t s o C n 10 LearJet 45 io
it Medium Jets s Light Jets Medium Jets
i Light Jets u
q 8 c
Unit Price ($ 2 Cessna Excel A H400 LearJet 40 LearJet 35 6 Cessna CJ3 Cessna Bravo Beech 390 Premier I SJ30 Cessna CJ2 Cessna CJ1 4 Very Light Jets Mus tang 2 Avocet Adam 700 Diamond Safire Eclipse 0 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 Max Take Off Weight (lbs) NBAA classification Light Jets Medium Jets Heavy JetsJets New class Very Light Jets Data source: Jane's, All the World Aircraft, 2004-2005 3 MIT MIT Very Light Jets in Development ICATICAT
A/C name: Eclipse500 Mustang Adam700 EMB-VLJ ProJet Company: Eclipse Aviation Cessna Adam Aircraft Embraer Avocet Aircraft A/C type: Twin Jet Twin Jet Twin jet Twin Jet Twin Jet Country: U.S. U.S. U.S. Brazil Israel / U.S. Orders: 2300- 240 75 not disclosed as of: August 2005 July 2005 July 2004 First Delivery*: Q2 2006 Q3 2006 2006+ 2008 *expected
A/C name: D-Jet Eviation EV-20 Epic LT HondaJet Safire26 Diamond Aircraft Company: Epic Honda Safire Aircraft Single Jet A/C type: Twin Jet Twin Jet Twin Jet Austria/Canada Country: U.S. Japan U.S. Not disclosed Orders: Not disclosed No as of: commercialization 2006 First Delivery*: commitment Excel Sport Jet *expected … and others entering the race: Spectrum 33 4 MITMIT Potential Size of this Segment of the ICATICAT Industry
10 000
Honeyw ell Rolls Royce 8 000 t
rcraf 6 000 ai f
er o FAA 4 000 mb Fore cas t Nu International 2 000
Teal group 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Expected entry of the first VLJs
Data Source: -FAA Forecast 2005-2016: http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2005-2016/ -Rolls-Royce outlook: http://www.rolls-royce.com/civil_aerospace/overview/market/outlook/default.jsp -Aviation International News, Forecasts predict growth for business aviation, http://www.ainonline.com/issues/11_04/11_04_forecastp10.html , 5 MIT MIT Potential Modes of Operations ICATICAT
Owner flown ( ≈ 900 aircraft ) • Owned and operated by individuals or companies
Fractional Ownership Programs ( ≈ 20 aircraft ) • e.g. Our Plane (Canada & U.S.)
Clubs ( ≈ 110 aircraft ) • e.g. Aviace (Switzerland)
Large Scale On-Demand Air Networks ( ≈ 1700 aircraft )
• Charter: e.g. Pogo (U.S)
• Per Seat: e.g. DayJet (U.S.)
• Mix Charter/Per Seat: e.g. LinearAir (U.S.)
Freight ( ≈ ? aircraft ) • Logistic Networks (e.g. Supply Chain Back Up Networks, Package delivery, etc)
6 With runway length requirements of 3000 ft MITMIT VLJs will be able to have access to a larger ICATICAT set of airports
Runways greater than 3,000 ft
Data Source: FAA, Form 5010 7 MIT Analysis of Traffic by Existing Business MIT Jets: ICATICAT Traffic Share by Aircraft Type
40% of the total BJ traffic is performed by the subset of 7 aircraft types (Light Jets)
Data Source: ETMS traffic data 8 Horizontal Pattern Analysis MITMIT Horizontal Pattern Analysis ICATICAT One day of traffic in the NAS by Light Jets
0.05
0.04 68th percentile 0.03 F
PD 93th 0.02 percentile
0.01
0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Density Plot: Courtesy of Aleksandra Mozdzanowska Flights performed by the subset of aircraft (light jets: Cessna CJ1,CJ2,CJ3, Cessna Stage Length (in miles) Bravo, Excel, LearJet35, Hawker 400) 9 MITMIT Light Business Jet Traffic* in 2003 ICATICAT
W
A
HPN I MDW R APA CMH TEB D
IAD M
LAS
PDK
DAL
0 150 operations per day
0 75 operations per day HOU 0 15 operations per day
PBI
•Traffic at 3400 public airports Light Jets include: Cessna CJ1, CJ2, CJ3, Bravo, Excel, LearJet35, Hawker400 Data source: ETMS data (traffic) and FAA Form 5010 (airports) 10 MITMIT Airport Utilization (by airport type) ICATICAT
Traffic Share by Airport Type
30 % of the total activity (departures and arrivals) is performed at airports part of the 16 metropolitan regions
50 % of all flights* have at least one end airport in one of 16 metropolitan regions
Regional Airport System
50 miles
Core •Flights performed by the subset of aircraft (Light Jets: Airport Cessna CJ1,CJ2,CJ3, Cessna Bravo, Excel, LearJet35, Hawker 400) 11 MITMIT Volume of Operations in the U.S. ICATICAT Historical data and forecast
200 s n 20162016 OutloOutlookok lio
l Historical Forecast (10 years after i 180 (10 years after
M the entry of VLJs) 160 Very Light Jets 140 General Aviation 120 r a
e Entry of VLJs Commuter 100 (20(2006)*06)* / Y s n Air Carrier
io 80 at r e 60 Military Op 40
20
0
* 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 9* 2* 5* 8* 98 06 197 197 1 198 198 199 199 199 200 2 00 20 200 201 201 201
* This scenario assumes a delivery rate of 500 very light jets per year starting in 2006. 12 Analysis of Traffic Distribution at the MITMIT Regional Airport System Level ICATICAT example of the New York Region*
Airports: Legend Core
Secondary Danbury DXR Business Av. / High density GA Sussex FWM Bridgeport BDR VLJ capable GA Greenwood 4N1 Westchester HPN non VLJ capable GA
Essex CDW Teterboro TEB La Guardia LGA Morristown MMU Islip ISP Newark EWR Farmingdale FRG Linden LDJ Kennedy JFK Solsberg N51
SMQ Central Jersey 47N Old Bridge 3N6 Princeton 39N
Monmouth BLM
* The analysis was performed for several regional airport systems in the U.S. (New York, Boston, Washington, Chicago, Miami, LosAngeles) 13 Historical and Forecasted Volumes of MITMIT Traffic at Airports within the Regional Airport System ICATICAT example of the New York Region*
LGA T.A.C. JFK T.A.C. EWR T.A.C.
TEB Historical 2003 T.A.C.
LGA T.A.C. JFK T.A.C. EWR T.A.C. TEB Forecast 2016 T.A.C.
* The analysis was performed for several regional airport systems in the U.S. (New York, Boston, Washington, Chicago, Miami, LosAngeles) 14 MITMIT Conclusions & Future Directions of ICATICAT Research
Conclusion In the short and medium term, VLJ traffic is unlikely to differ from existing LJ traffic. Concentration of traffic implies: • Outside high density metro areas: Not an issue, capacity exists • Inside high density metro areas Some key airports will become even more congested Capacity crisis at key airports will occur even without VLJs
• Traffic redistribution mechanisms will take place Core airports Secondary airports; emergence of new secondary airports Core GA reliever airports; strengthening of existing and emergence of new reliever airports Surrounding GA airports; growth of business jet (and Very Light Jet) traffic
Strengthened role of small regional airports within key metropolitan areas Need to promote the development of airport systems on a region wide basis
Future Directions of Research Investigating the feasibility and the implications of the integration of air carrier and on-demand air networks
15 MITMIT ICATICAT
Questions & Comments
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