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A Comparative Study of Two Conflict-Affected Ethnic Societies in Myanmar

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A Comparative Study of Two Conflict-Affected Ethnic Societies in Myanmar Ceasefires and Post-War Democratisation: A Comparative Study of Two Conflict-Affected Ethnic Societies in Myanmar Khin Maung Yin A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of New South Wales, Canberra at Australian Defence Force Academy School of Humanities and Social Sciences February 2019 b Thesis/Dissertation Sheet Australia's Global University Surname/Family Name Yin Given Name/s Khin Maung Abbreviation for degree as give in the University calendar PhD University of New South Wales, Canberra at Australian Defence Force Faculty Academy School School of Humanities and Social Sciences Ceasefires an.d Post-War Democratisation: A Comparative Study of Two Thesis Tille Conflict-Affected communities in Myanmar Abstract 350 words maximum: (PLEASE TYPE) Ending four decades of all-out civil war, Myanmar's military government during the early 1990s managed to institute ceasefire with most of the major ethnic insurgent groups. Most scholars were critical of the ceasefires, arguing that the failure to reach more lasting political settlements obstructed more fundamental progress in the affected areas. Some even argued that the ceasefires undermined the pressure for democratisation and therefore were detrimental to the country's political broader development. To the contrary, it is the argument of this thesis that the ceasefires serve as a catalyst for important social, political, and economic change processes that in turn improved the "uptake" of democratic opportunities in the relevant areas after the start of the liberalisation process in 2011. This is confirmed by tracing and comparing developments in two conflict-affected ethnic regions of Myanmar from the early 1990s until the present day: Mon-populated areas which benefitted from the ceasefire agreement between the government and the New Mon State Party in 1995, and Karen-populated areas which continued to be affected by armed conflict between the government and Karen National Union until 2012. The thesis is primarily based on primary data, including personal observationsfrom the direct involvement of the author in Myanmar politics over the past three decades, as well as scores of semi-structured interviewswith key informants in the two regions mainly conducted during fieldwork in 2016-17. Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all property rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in DissertationAbstracts International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). Witness Signature Date The University recognises that there may be exceptional circumstances requiring restrictions on copying or conditions on use. Requests for restriction for a period of up to 2 years must be made in writing. Requests for a longer period of restriction may be considered in exceptional circumstances and require the approval of the Dean of Graduate Research. OR OFFICE USE ONLY Date of completion of requirements for Award: C ORIGINALITY STATEMENT 'I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.' Signed ...... ......................................... Date ....... ?:�/0'6 /�.�...................... .............. d COPYRIGHT STATEMENT ‘I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all proprietary rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstract International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). I have either used no substantial portions of copyright material in my thesis or I have obtained permission to use copyright material; where permission has not been granted I have applied/will apply for a partial restriction of the digital copy of my thesis or dissertation.' Signed ……………………………………………........................... Date ……………………………………………........................... AUTHENTICITY STATEMENT ‘I certify that the Library deposit digital copy is a direct equivalent of the final officially approved version of my thesis. No emendation of content has occurred and if there are any minor variations in formatting, they are the result of the conversion to digital format.’ Signed ……………………………………………........................... Date ……………………………………………........................... INCLUSION OF PUBLICATIONS STATEMENT UNSW is supportive of candidates publishing their research results during their candidature as detailed in the UNSW Thesis Examination Procedure. Publications can be used in their thesis in lieu of a Chapter if: • The student contributed greater than 50% of the content in the publication and is the "primary author", ie. the student was responsible primarily for the planning, execution and preparation of the work for publication • The student has approval to include the publication in their thesis in lieu of a Chapter from their supervisor and Postgraduate Coordinator. • The publication is not subject to any obligations or contractual agreements with a third party that would constrain its inclusion in the thesis Please indicate whether this thesis contains published material or not. This thesis contains no publications, either published or submitted for publication (if this box is checked, you may delete all the material on page 2) Some of the work described in this thesis has been published and it has been documented in the relevant Chapters with acknowledgement (if this box is □ checked, you may delete all the material on page 2) This thesis has publications (either published or submitted for publication) □ incorporated into it in lieu of a chapter and the details are presented below CANDIDATE'S DECLARATION I declare that: • I have complied with the Thesis Examination Procedure • where I have used a publication in lieu of a Chapter, the listed publication(s) below meet(s) the requirements to be included in the thesis. Name Signature Date ( dd/mmlyy) J-';J-/a�/le Postgraduate Coordinator's Declaration (to be filled in where publications are used in lieu of Chapters) I declare that: •· the information below is accurate • where listed publication(s) have been used in lieu of Chapter(s), their use complies with the Thesis Examination Procedure • the minimum requirements for the format of the thesis have been met. PGC's Name PGC's Signature Date ( dd/mmlyy) e f Abstract Ending four decades of all-out civil war, Myanmar’s military government during the early 1990s managed to institute ceasefires with most of the minority ethnic insurgent groups. Most scholars were critical of the ceasefires, arguing that the failure to reach more lasting political settlements obstructed more fundamental progress in the affected areas. Some even argued that the ceasefires undermined the pressure for democratisation and therefore were detrimental to the country’s political broader development. To the contrary, it is the argument of this thesis that the ceasefires served as a catalyst for important social, political and economic change processes that in turn improved the “uptake” of democratic opportunities in the relevant areas after the start of the liberalisation process in 2011. This is confirmed by tracing and comparing developments in two conflict-affected minority ethnic regions of Myanmar from the early 1990s until the present day: Mon-populated areas which benefitted from the ceasefire agreement between the government and the New Mon State Party in 1995, and Karen populated-areas which continued to be affected by armed conflict between the government and the Karen National Union until 2012. The thesis is primarily based on primary data, including personal observations from the direct involvement of the author in Myanmar politics over the past three decades, as well as scores of semi-structured interviews with key informants in the two regions, mainly conducted during fieldwork in 2016-17. i Acknowledgements It is impossible to complete a project such as a PhD without accumulating a great deal of debt. This dissertation has been enriched by numerous conversations, consultations, discussions, and correspondences with many people. I
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