Ceasefires and Post-War Democratisation: A Comparative Study of Two Conflict-Affected Ethnic Societies in Myanmar Khin Maung Yin A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of New South Wales, Canberra at Australian Defence Force Academy School of Humanities and Social Sciences February 2019 b Thesis/Dissertation Sheet Australia's Global University Surname/Family Name Yin Given Name/s Khin Maung Abbreviation for degree as give in the University calendar PhD University of New South Wales, Canberra at Australian Defence Force Faculty Academy School School of Humanities and Social Sciences Ceasefires an.d Post-War Democratisation: A Comparative Study of Two Thesis Tille Conflict-Affected communities in Myanmar Abstract 350 words maximum: (PLEASE TYPE) Ending four decades of all-out civil war, Myanmar's military government during the early 1990s managed to institute ceasefire with most of the major ethnic insurgent groups. Most scholars were critical of the ceasefires, arguing that the failure to reach more lasting political settlements obstructed more fundamental progress in the affected areas. Some even argued that the ceasefires undermined the pressure for democratisation and therefore were detrimental to the country's political broader development. To the contrary, it is the argument of this thesis that the ceasefires serve as a catalyst for important social, political, and economic change processes that in turn improved the "uptake" of democratic opportunities in the relevant areas after the start of the liberalisation process in 2011. This is confirmed by tracing and comparing developments in two conflict-affected ethnic regions of Myanmar from the early 1990s until the present day: Mon-populated areas which benefitted from the ceasefire agreement between the government and the New Mon State Party in 1995, and Karen-populated areas which continued to be affected by armed conflict between the government and Karen National Union until 2012. The thesis is primarily based on primary data, including personal observationsfrom the direct involvement of the author in Myanmar politics over the past three decades, as well as scores of semi-structured interviewswith key informants in the two regions mainly conducted during fieldwork in 2016-17. 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This thesis contains no publications, either published or submitted for publication (if this box is checked, you may delete all the material on page 2) Some of the work described in this thesis has been published and it has been documented in the relevant Chapters with acknowledgement (if this box is □ checked, you may delete all the material on page 2) This thesis has publications (either published or submitted for publication) □ incorporated into it in lieu of a chapter and the details are presented below CANDIDATE'S DECLARATION I declare that: • I have complied with the Thesis Examination Procedure • where I have used a publication in lieu of a Chapter, the listed publication(s) below meet(s) the requirements to be included in the thesis. Name Signature Date ( dd/mmlyy) J-';J-/a�/le Postgraduate Coordinator's Declaration (to be filled in where publications are used in lieu of Chapters) I declare that: •· the information below is accurate • where listed publication(s) have been used in lieu of Chapter(s), their use complies with the Thesis Examination Procedure • the minimum requirements for the format of the thesis have been met. PGC's Name PGC's Signature Date ( dd/mmlyy) e f Abstract Ending four decades of all-out civil war, Myanmar’s military government during the early 1990s managed to institute ceasefires with most of the minority ethnic insurgent groups. Most scholars were critical of the ceasefires, arguing that the failure to reach more lasting political settlements obstructed more fundamental progress in the affected areas. Some even argued that the ceasefires undermined the pressure for democratisation and therefore were detrimental to the country’s political broader development. To the contrary, it is the argument of this thesis that the ceasefires served as a catalyst for important social, political and economic change processes that in turn improved the “uptake” of democratic opportunities in the relevant areas after the start of the liberalisation process in 2011. This is confirmed by tracing and comparing developments in two conflict-affected minority ethnic regions of Myanmar from the early 1990s until the present day: Mon-populated areas which benefitted from the ceasefire agreement between the government and the New Mon State Party in 1995, and Karen populated-areas which continued to be affected by armed conflict between the government and the Karen National Union until 2012. The thesis is primarily based on primary data, including personal observations from the direct involvement of the author in Myanmar politics over the past three decades, as well as scores of semi-structured interviews with key informants in the two regions, mainly conducted during fieldwork in 2016-17. i Acknowledgements It is impossible to complete a project such as a PhD without accumulating a great deal of debt. This dissertation has been enriched by numerous conversations, consultations, discussions, and correspondences with many people. I