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Dealing with a Trump World Crafting a sustainable future • for globalisation at Davos • Growth risks in 2017: China, oil, debt • Disruptive technology trends Feb – March 2017 MCI (P) 148/08/2016 Dealing with a Trump world Donald Trump’s salvos against globalism raises questions about whether America will remain a beacon of hope, for Asia and beyond. Will the wall he is erecting leave the US vulnerable? Letter from the Editor-in-Chief Gain an insider’s view on Asia with us Dear readers, It has only been weeks since United States President Donald Trump took office, but his slew of executive orders has stirred much controversy and sparked considerable anxiety around the world. These include America’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, controversial appointments, as well as clashes with other political and world leaders. The implications of these recent events are likely to be with us well into 2017, and beyond. Straits Times US Bureau chief Nirmal Ghosh takes a look at what the new Trump presidency means for all of us and where things might be heading, while our associate editor Ravi Velloor ponders the implications for Asia should the US decide to go head-to-head with China, on trade or security issues. Mr Trump was the focus of attention at this year’s World Economic Forum meet in Davos too, where delegates debated what his “America First!” views portend for the world and the future of globalisation. I attended the sessions and sum up the discussions on pages 10 & 11. These issues are a key focus for all of us in The Straits Times. The ST has been covering developments in Singapore and around Asia since 1845. Our network of correspondents and contributors provides insights and an insider’s view of these events. Our ST Asia Report is a regular publication which compiles some of their best work, which is also available online at www.straitstimes.com A PDF version of this magazine is also available online to subscribers of The Straits Times as well. In this issue, you will find: • A report on the three significant economic risks we face in 2017: China, oil and debt • An insight into Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s pivot to China • Articles by some of our regular contributors, such as Professors Tommy Koh, John Wong and Arnaud De Meyer and Mr Jonathan Eyal. • A quick look at some of the major tech trends this year and the robot revolution making inroads in Japan. The ST Asia Report is part of our ongoing efforts to meet our readers’ information needs in this ever-changing world. We hope you will enjoy this publication and will return to our products often because, to put it simply: You need to know Asia. We do. Happy Year of the Rooster! Best regards Warren Fernandez Editor-in-Chief The Straits Times & SPH’s English, Malay and Tamil Media Group 1 Crafting a sustainable future • for globalisation at Davos • Growth risks in 2017: China, oil, debt • Disruptive technology trends Feb – March 2017 MCI (P) 148/08/2016 Contents Dealing with a Trump world Donald Trump’s salvos against globalism raises questions about whether America will remain a beacon of hope, for Asia and beyond. Will the wall he is erecting leave the US vulnerable? 3 Asia will need to be tactful with a prickly US President 6 US-Asean ties headed for strategic drift, says Obama’s Asia adviser Asia Report Feb – March 2017 8 A Trump hammer on Asian nails Warren Fernandez 10 Crafting a sustainable future for globalisation Editor-in-Chief Alvin Tay 12 Will Trump-Putin ‘bromance’ transform US-Russian ties? Managing Editor Tan Ooi Boon 14 Trump’s worrying trade war with China Senior Vice-President (Business Development) 16 2017: Three great expectations Eugene Leow Head, Digital Strategy 18 3 big risks in 2017: China, oil, debt Irene Ngoo American greatness requires a receptive world & Vice-President 22 Hard Brexit now a reality Shefali Rekhi Editor 23 South-east Asian ports on an expansion spree Copy Desk Sim Mui Hoon 26 What Duterte’s pivot to China means for Filipinos Chief Sub-editor 28 Foreigners eye more property investments in Singapore Design Peter Williams Art Editor 29 Telecom tycoon a reclusive man with grand ambitions Anil Kumar 30 To innovate, let’s get passionate Graphic Artist Chng Choon Hiong 32 Disruptive tech trends for businesses Cover Photo Illustration Editorial research 34 Japan 2020: Robot revolution Benjamin Chua, Nadia Chevroulet 36 What the world’s most successful people read Circulation Eric Ng Head, Circulation Marketing Tommy Ong Senior Manager (Circulation) Reach out to us: Global Outlook Forum Leong Lin Choo Senior Manager We welcome your feedback and views [email protected] Letters can be sent to [email protected] Circulation & subscription: Kitty Tan Senior Manager (Circulation) Published by [email protected] The Straits Times, Singapore Press Holdings For advertising enquiries: Printed by Sharon Lim Ling KHL Printing Co Pte Ltd Manager (Business Development) All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in whole or [email protected] in part without written permission from the publisher. Cover Story Nirmal Ghosh US Bureau Chief inWashington Asia will need to be tactful with a prickly US President PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: CHNG CHOON HIONG & REUTERS hen Mr Donald He also rattled Washington’s foreign imports from China. Trump invited a policy establishment and many members The dinner on Jan 18 was at the group of foreign of his own party by suggesting a radical Andrew Mellon Auditorium. Mr Tom ambassadors to a foe-to-friend reset with Russia, which Barrack, a trusted advisor and director dinner just two days was allegedly responsible for a hacking of Mr Trump’s transition events, Wbefore his inauguration on Jan 20, as the operation designed to influence the reminded the ambassadors who were 45th president of the United States, they election. there that the Nato pact was signed in were unsure what to expect. He was about to dump the Trans-Pa- that very place, in 1949. Mr Trump showed little penchant for cific Partnership (TPP), and renegotiate The choice of venue was to symbol- diplomatic niceties. the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement ically show how the US had played a He angered China by taking a call (Nafta). long-term role in the world, he said. from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, And he has announced plans to Mr Trump – with his top Cabinet and rattled Europe by questioning the build a wall on the Mexico border, and picks – worked the tables, with his relevance of Nato. has said that he will impose tariffs on usual disarming bonhomie, thanking 3 Cover Story rushed order, apparently written by his own close inner circle including strategy INSIGHTS INTO TRUMP’S ASIA POLICY adviser Steve Bannon, suspending • US may have turned protectionist, but it will not abdicate its place in the refugee admissions, and temporarily world suspending visas for citizens of seven • Mr Trump’s “America First” approach will be less ideological but more Muslim-majority countries, creating transactional chaos and backlash, is a case in point. “We just have to get used to dealing • Washington’s foreign policy will be less bound by conventional diplomacy and will be more practical with a President who speaks in a stream of consciousness rather than • A US-China trade war may not spiral out of control a scripted president,” a Washington- • Mr Trump’s experiment of trying to use Taiwan as a pawn will be watched based diplomat told The Straits Times closely Asia Report. • Expect some dissonance in existing alliances with South Korea and Japan Mr Trump also has vulnerabilities. He is touchy about the size of the crowd at Asia’s first interaction with Mr Trump might come in a multilateral • his inauguration, still boasts about his setting, such as the Apec meet in Vietnam election victory, and insists there was voter fraud. He considers media as the opposition. the ambassadors for showing their he said: “We’re going to have to send His critics have raised red flags over support by coming, and shaking hands China a clear signal that first, the island- his global business interests, many of and posing for selfies. building stops, and second, your access which are in Asia. He moved to allay The underlying message was that to those islands is also not going to be concerns by handing over control of the US may have swerved hard to the allowed.” his companies to his sons, but he may right, turned protectionist and rejected But on the trade front, the Chinese still be vulnerable to a clause in the globalism and free trade, but that did and US economies are so interdependent, Constitution barring a president from not mean it would abdicate its place in there are experts who say it is difficult to receiving “emoluments”. the world. see a trade war spiralling out of control. “Asian countries need to have a good The US will still engage, but its There is also some dissonance between understanding of Trump’s psychological “America First” approach will be less Mr Trump’s idea of strengthening alliances profile,” said Ms Bonnie Glaser, a senior ideological and more transactional; less and forging new ones, as he mentioned adviser for Asia focusing on Chinese bound by conventional diplomacy, but in his inaugural speech, and his demand foreign and security policy at the Centre more practical. that allies pay a fair share for US backing. for Strategic and International Studies Expect a somewhat different tack in Japan and South Korea already in Washington, DC.
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