Crafting a sustainable future • for globalisation at Davos • Growth risks in 2017: China, oil, debt • Disruptive technology trends
Feb – March 2017 MCI (P) 148/08/2016
Dealing with a Trump world
Donald Trump’s salvos against globalism raises questions about whether America will remain a beacon of hope, for Asia and beyond. Will the wall he is erecting leave the US vulnerable?
Letter from the Editor-in-Chief Gain an insider’s view on Asia with us
Dear readers, It has only been weeks since United States President Donald Trump took office, but his slew of executive orders has stirred much controversy and sparked considerable anxiety around the world. These include America’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, controversial appointments, as well as clashes with other political and world leaders. The implications of these recent events are likely to be with us well into 2017, and beyond. Straits Times US Bureau chief Nirmal Ghosh takes a look at what the new Trump presidency means for all of us and where things might be heading, while our associate editor Ravi Velloor ponders the implications for Asia should the US decide to go head-to-head with China, on trade or security issues. Mr Trump was the focus of attention at this year’s World Economic Forum meet in Davos too, where delegates debated what his “America First!” views portend for the world and the future of globalisation. I attended the sessions and sum up the discussions on pages 10 & 11. These issues are a key focus for all of us in The Straits Times. The ST has been covering developments in Singapore and around Asia since 1845. Our network of correspondents and contributors provides insights and an insider’s view of these events. Our ST Asia Report is a regular publication which compiles some of their best work, which is also available online at www.straitstimes.com A PDF version of this magazine is also available online to subscribers of The Straits Times as well. In this issue, you will find: • A report on the three significant economic risks we face in 2017: China, oil and debt • An insight into Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s pivot to China • Articles by some of our regular contributors, such as Professors Tommy Koh, John Wong and Arnaud De Meyer and Mr Jonathan Eyal. • A quick look at some of the major tech trends this year and the robot revolution making inroads in Japan. The ST Asia Report is part of our ongoing efforts to meet our readers’ information needs in this ever-changing world. We hope you will enjoy this publication and will return to our products often because, to put it simply: You need to know Asia. We do. Happy Year of the Rooster!
Best regards
Warren Fernandez Editor-in-Chief The Straits Times & SPH’s English, Malay and Tamil Media Group 1 Crafting a sustainable future • for globalisation at Davos • Growth risks in 2017: China, oil, debt • Disruptive technology trends
Feb – March 2017 MCI (P) 148/08/2016 Contents Dealing with a Trump world
Donald Trump’s salvos against globalism raises questions about whether America will remain a beacon of hope, for Asia and beyond. Will the wall he is erecting leave the US vulnerable? 3 Asia will need to be tactful with a prickly US President
6 US-Asean ties headed for strategic drift, says Obama’s Asia adviser Asia Report Feb – March 2017 8 A Trump hammer on Asian nails
Warren Fernandez 10 Crafting a sustainable future for globalisation Editor-in-Chief Alvin Tay 12 Will Trump-Putin ‘bromance’ transform US-Russian ties? Managing Editor
Tan Ooi Boon 14 Trump’s worrying trade war with China Senior Vice-President (Business Development) 16 2017: Three great expectations Eugene Leow Head, Digital Strategy 18 3 big risks in 2017: China, oil, debt
Irene Ngoo American greatness requires a receptive world & Vice-President 22 Hard Brexit now a reality Shefali Rekhi Editor 23 South-east Asian ports on an expansion spree Copy Desk Sim Mui Hoon 26 What Duterte’s pivot to China means for Filipinos Chief Sub-editor 28 Foreigners eye more property investments in Singapore Design Peter Williams Art Editor 29 Telecom tycoon a reclusive man with grand ambitions Anil Kumar 30 To innovate, let’s get passionate Graphic Artist Chng Choon Hiong 32 Disruptive tech trends for businesses Cover Photo Illustration Editorial research 34 Japan 2020: Robot revolution Benjamin Chua, Nadia Chevroulet 36 What the world’s most successful people read Circulation Eric Ng Head, Circulation Marketing
Tommy Ong Senior Manager (Circulation)
Reach out to us: Global Outlook Forum Leong Lin Choo Senior Manager We welcome your feedback and views [email protected] Letters can be sent to [email protected] Circulation & subscription: Kitty Tan Senior Manager (Circulation) Published by [email protected] The Straits Times, Singapore Press Holdings
For advertising enquiries: Printed by Sharon Lim Ling KHL Printing Co Pte Ltd Manager (Business Development) All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in whole or [email protected] in part without written permission from the publisher. Cover Story
Nirmal Ghosh US Bureau Chief inWashington Asia will need to be tactful with a prickly US President
PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: CHNG CHOON HIONG & REUTERS
hen Mr Donald He also rattled Washington’s foreign imports from China. Trump invited a policy establishment and many members The dinner on Jan 18 was at the group of foreign of his own party by suggesting a radical Andrew Mellon Auditorium. Mr Tom ambassadors to a foe-to-friend reset with Russia, which Barrack, a trusted advisor and director dinner just two days was allegedly responsible for a hacking of Mr Trump’s transition events, Wbefore his inauguration on Jan 20, as the operation designed to influence the reminded the ambassadors who were 45th president of the United States, they election. there that the Nato pact was signed in were unsure what to expect. He was about to dump the Trans-Pa- that very place, in 1949. Mr Trump showed little penchant for cific Partnership (TPP), and renegotiate The choice of venue was to symbol- diplomatic niceties. the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement ically show how the US had played a He angered China by taking a call (Nafta). long-term role in the world, he said. from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, And he has announced plans to Mr Trump – with his top Cabinet and rattled Europe by questioning the build a wall on the Mexico border, and picks – worked the tables, with his relevance of Nato. has said that he will impose tariffs on usual disarming bonhomie, thanking
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rushed order, apparently written by his own close inner circle including strategy INSIGHTS INTO TRUMP’S ASIA POLICY adviser Steve Bannon, suspending • US may have turned protectionist, but it will not abdicate its place in the refugee admissions, and temporarily world suspending visas for citizens of seven • Mr Trump’s “America First” approach will be less ideological but more Muslim-majority countries, creating transactional chaos and backlash, is a case in point. “We just have to get used to dealing • Washington’s foreign policy will be less bound by conventional diplomacy and will be more practical with a President who speaks in a stream of consciousness rather than • A US-China trade war may not spiral out of control a scripted president,” a Washington- • Mr Trump’s experiment of trying to use Taiwan as a pawn will be watched based diplomat told The Straits Times closely Asia Report. • Expect some dissonance in existing alliances with South Korea and Japan Mr Trump also has vulnerabilities. He is touchy about the size of the crowd at Asia’s first interaction with Mr Trump might come in a multilateral • his inauguration, still boasts about his setting, such as the Apec meet in Vietnam election victory, and insists there was voter fraud. He considers media as the opposition. the ambassadors for showing their he said: “We’re going to have to send His critics have raised red flags over support by coming, and shaking hands China a clear signal that first, the island- his global business interests, many of and posing for selfies. building stops, and second, your access which are in Asia. He moved to allay The underlying message was that to those islands is also not going to be concerns by handing over control of the US may have swerved hard to the allowed.” his companies to his sons, but he may right, turned protectionist and rejected But on the trade front, the Chinese still be vulnerable to a clause in the globalism and free trade, but that did and US economies are so interdependent, Constitution barring a president from not mean it would abdicate its place in there are experts who say it is difficult to receiving “emoluments”. the world. see a trade war spiralling out of control. “Asian countries need to have a good The US will still engage, but its There is also some dissonance between understanding of Trump’s psychological “America First” approach will be less Mr Trump’s idea of strengthening alliances profile,” said Ms Bonnie Glaser, a senior ideological and more transactional; less and forging new ones, as he mentioned adviser for Asia focusing on Chinese bound by conventional diplomacy, but in his inaugural speech, and his demand foreign and security policy at the Centre more practical. that allies pay a fair share for US backing. for Strategic and International Studies Expect a somewhat different tack in Japan and South Korea already in Washington, DC. America’s ties with Asia. contribute significantly to the US “Praise him, find out what he wants, military’s deployments in their offer him something, so that they get TRUMP’S TIES WITH countries, so the demand has puzzled what they want. It will be transactional,” REGION and unsettled the leadership in Tokyo she added. and Seoul – likely to be one reason why House Speaker Paul Ryan, speaking While his tougher line on trade with Defence Secretary James Mattis made to Republican colleagues at the party’s China is likely to be welcomed by some his first foreign trip to those countries. retreat on Jan 26 in Philadelphia, said countries in the region – Vietnam, Japan Still, old alliances in Asia are expected it with a shrug: “This is going to be an and India, for example, and for different to remain intact. unconventional presidency. We have to reasons – it would be with caution, as “Trump’s foreign policy and national get used to it.” they watch America’s hard-bargaining security selections, though few in brinkmanship, which could destabilise number, so far, generally do not suggest TEMPLATE FOR US- a delicate status quo in the region. indifference to alliances or support the China’s military build-up in the South isolationist messages in his campaign,” CHINA RELATIONS China Sea islands has been a steady Brookings Institution senior fellow In an essay last year titled Peace irritant for rival claimants, and a source Jeffrey Bader wrote earlier this month. Through Strength – seen as the template of tension with the US. Besides the trip that Mr Mattis made for the Trump administration’s China With President Trump in power, to Japan and Korea, Mr Trump has had policy – co-authors Alexander Gray the tension could come to a head. Mr productive phone calls with Asian and Peter Navarro wrote: “Donald Trump’s apparent readiness to review leaders, including Philippine President Trump has been clear and concise on the “one China” policy, presumably Rodrigo Duterte, Vietnamese Prime his approach to US foreign policy. as a bargaining position, has not won Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc and Indian “It begins with a clear-eyed appraisal him any points in Beijing, and the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. of US national interests, and a willingness experiment of using Taiwan as a pawn But the international community to work with any country that shares our could backfire. is being challenged not just to adapt goals of stability, prosperity, and security. Mr Trump’s position on the South to the apparent strategic ambiguity “Trump’s approach is two-pronged. China Sea is not explicit, other than of US policy, but also to the style of First, Trump will never again sacrifice citing how China is building military a President who has a short attention the US economy on the altar of foreign facilities on the disputed islands. span, is said to size up people quickly, policy by entering into bad trade deals However, US Secretary of State Rex has conducted international diplomacy like the North American Free Trade Tillerson, during his Senate confirmation over Twitter and argued with Australian Agreement (Nafta), allowing China hearing, created consternation when Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. His into the World Trade Organisation, and 4 Cover Story passing the proposed TPP. These deals only weaken our manufacturing base and Trump’s business interests in Asia ability to defend ourselves and our allies. “Second, Trump will steadfastly CHINA pursue a strategy of peace through Mr Trump has been wanting to bring his brand to China for years. At least strength, an axiom of Ronald Reagan two planned ventures have failed in the past. In 2008, an office building that was abandoned under the Obama project with Chinese developer Evergrande Group was nixed in the administration.” aftermath of the worldwide recession. A 2012 deal ended when one of the Dr Navarro, 67, who lectures at the project’s partners, the State Grid Corporation of China, got tangled in a University of California in Irvine, heads corruption scandal. a newly created White House National Trump Hotel Collection chief executive Eric Danziger was quoted in Trade Council. His 2013 documentary Chinese media last year as saying that the company plans to build 20 to 30 film, Death By China, talks of “weapons hotels in the country. of jobs destruction” – or how “China’s In New York, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is one of Trump growth came at the cost of American Tower’s premium clients. The state-owned bank’s lease is set to expire in 2019. jobs”. The online site for the book and film shows a dagger plunged into the heart of the map of the US, while the INDIA video shows the text: “Where did all The Trump Organisation has five licensing deals in India, three of which the jobs go? They went to China. Is your have been announced. job next?” The first is Trump Tower Mumbai, which is owned and developed by In an op-ed in the Los Angeles Times the Lodha Group. The next, Trump Towers Pune, is owned and developed last July, Dr Navarro supported the by Zero G Apartments, while a Trump-branded office tower is planned for idea of a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese Gurgaon near New Delhi, in partnership with a private equity firm. imports. “China has been waging an Financial disclosure forms filed during the presidential campaign listed undeclared trade war on the US since additional business entities associated with projects in the Worli region of joining the World Trade Organisation Mumbai, and the eastern city of Kolkata. in 2001,” he said. “The casualties are obvious: More than 50,000 American factories shuttered.” INDONESIA But he made the point that “for The Trump Hotel Trump, steep tariffs are a negotiating Collection announced strategy to stop China, or any other a deal two years ago country, from cheating on international with Indonesian firm PT trade deals”. Media Nusantara Citra Mr Trump has also picked a China (MNC) to build a golf specialist, Mr Matt Pottinger, 43, as his course and luxury hotel senior aide to oversee Asian affairs in the in West Java, as well as US National Security Council. The former another overlooking the Mr Trump seen above with MNC group CEO Hary Indian Ocean in Bali. Tanoesoedibjo and his wife Liliana in New York, in journalist and US marine has worked in 2015. PHOTO: TRUMP HOTEL COLLECTION China and speaks fluent Mandarin. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, 69, Mr Trump’s point man at the World Trade Organisation and in SOUTH KOREA THE PHILIPPINES the bilateral deals the President wants to Mr Trump’s name adorns six The Trump Tower Manila is one quickly sew up, knows how to negotiate condominium buildings in Seoul, of the most prominent projects and litigate. Busan and Daegu. Dubbed in a series of Trump-branded He was a deputy trade representative “Trump World,” they were built buildings by property magnate in the Ronald Reagan administration by Daewoo, the South Korean Jose E. B. Antonio, who has been corporation which pays Mr Trump appointed the country’s special during the 1980s, when the Republican for the use of his name. envoy to the US. president was at his most protectionist, and Japan was considered the primary threat to US economic dominance. In the 30 years since, the Ohio native JAPAN has pursued an international trade Ivanka Trump’s clothing law practice at Skadden, Arps, Slate, line has been working on Meagher and Flom. He has decades of a licensing agreement with experience arguing for punitive tariffs Sanei International. The largest on overseas firms. shareholder of Sanei’s parent In a commentary in 2008, in the company is the Development New York Times, he wrote that unbridled Bank of Japan, which is owned by the Japanese government. A worker cleans off the windows of the Ivanka free trade was helping China become Trump Boutique at Trump Tower in New York. a superpower, and that the US was PHOTO: AFP “bowing to the whims of anti-American Source: Time, National Public Radio (US), ABC News — Reporting by Benjamin Chua bureaucrats at the WTO”.
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Another influential person will be is also a Sinophile and an aficionado setting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Commerce Secretary and investor of Chinese culture and art. He also has Cooperation (Apec) forum in November Wilbur Ross, 79, who last year, in a had business interests in China, and is in Vietnam – if he attends. paper co-authored by none other than an admirer of the Chinese government, There is nothing predictable about Dr Navarro, wrote: “China’s 2001 entry in many respects. President Trump, but in Asia he has to into the WTO… opened America’s Neither is Mr Trump a one- navigate a minefield. markets to a flood of illegally subsidised dimensional president – a reality his At stake is nothing less than a new Chinese imports, thereby creating critics often fail to grasp, leading to him world order and which country secures it. massive and chronic trade deficits. being repeatedly underestimated. Ms Yun Sun, a fellow at the Stimson “China’s accession to the WTO also He has plenty of constituents to deal Centre in Washington, DC said: “If the rapidly accelerated the offshoring of with at home, and will be tested for his US retreats, China would like to fill the America’s factories, and a concomitant management of public perception. He void. If the US undermines the interna- decline in US domestic business also has to manage forces in the party tional trade system, China would like to investment as a percentage of our especially if, or when, policies backfire. assume the role of leader of the system.” economy.” South-east Asia will get a taste of But Mr Ross’s views, like the man Mr Trump – unless he visits individual himself, are not one-dimensional. He countries earlier – in a multilateral [email protected]
Shefali Rekhi Editor, ST Asia Report US-Asean ties headed for strategic drift, says Obama’s Asia adviser
In an interview, with Mr Trump’s tweets, actions and appointments doing little to assuage Evan Medeiros urges concerns since his surprise win in the countries in the region Nov 8 presidential election. to have patience, not Dr Evan Medeiros, 45, the man who steered the Obama administration’s overreact and keep “strategic rebalance” towards Asia, engaging with the thinks that the region might witness a drift within itself and in ties with Trump administration Washington. He worries Asean countries might end up having to choose between the US and China, while the pursuit of ill Asean be forgotten protectionist policies by the new US by the administration administration may not bode well for of United States Pres- the region. ident Donald Trump? Dr Medeiros, who was former How will the President Barack Obama’s top adviser Wregional grouping fare in the ongoing on Asia and coordinated America’s tussle between America and China? policies towards this region, shared And how should the region deal his views in an interview with The with the unpredictability of the Trump Straits Times, in January. He was here administration? to meet businessmen and observers to These and other questions are discuss likely directions of US policy doing the rounds in circles concerned towards this region under the Trump about the direction of US-Asia ties, administration, in his new role as ST FILE PHOTO
6 Cover Story managing director (Asia) of US-based political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. The new `administration is likely “A confrontational to be more concerned about ties with approach (between China and Japan in this part of the US and China) might world, while a focus on North Korea would be necessary because of the put countries in the nuclear issue. region in difficult, All this raises questions about where awkward positions Asean will figure in Mr Trump’s foreign and force them to policy, he said. “It’s very unclear and I worry about choose between a period of strategic drift within Asean Washington and and in the US-Asean relationship, Beijing. This is just especially if Trump puts the TPP to the what the Obama side,” he said. The TPP is the Trans-Pacific Partner- administration had ship free trade agreement between 12 tried to avoid.” countries, including the US but excluding China, which has been under negotiation Dr EVAN MEDEIROS for five years. Mr Trump withdrew the US from the TPP on the first day of his presidency. ST ILLUSTRATION: MANNY FRANCISCO This is just what the Obama admin- China, so my expectation is that he LACK OF AWARENESS istration had tried to avoid by pushing will use the opportunity of Trump’s ON ASIA for a multi-dimensional trade and invest- inauguration to do a pivot and re- ment liberalisation policy under the TPP embrace the US,” he said. None of the new President’s key that would have led to more structural Asia should witness closer ties advisers has “any interest or deep reforms and active defence and security between Washington and New Delhi experience in Asia”, except Secretary arrangements, he added. while Tokyo has an opportunity to of State Rex Tillerson, who spent It would have meant more cooper- play a leadership role in the region, Dr time in Singapore and is aware of the ation with countries such as Vietnam, Medeiros said. South China Sea issue because of Malaysia and Singapore, while allowing So how should Asia deal with the ExxonMobil’s investments in Vietnam, for a robust relationship with China and Trump administration? Dr Medeiros said. Mr Tillerson is the Asean autonomy even as it worked with “Patience. Give the Trump adminis- former CEO of ExxonMobil. the US. tration time to get the top policymakers “So, the question is, how much time “I worry we will lose that situation into place, to get them into office and to and energy is Trump going to devote to under a Trump administration,” said Dr understand how they look at American Asia? He has an opportunity in 2017 Medeiros. interests. because Apec (Asia-Pacific Economic It will also mean a shift from all the “My second recommendation is: Cooperation summit) is going to be goodwill earned as part of the Asia Don’t overreact because it’s going to in Vietnam and the East Asia Summit “pivot” policy under Mr Obama that take him and his administration time is going to be in the Philippines. Will saw the US sign the Treaty of Amity to sort out their Asia policy. Trump go to one, will he go to both, and Cooperation with Asean, a resident “Many of the Trump people are from and what will he take away from those ambassador of the US being designated outside the mainstream Republican experiences? We don’t know yet.” for the region and stationed in Jakarta, establishment. The appointment of Professor Peter and later an Asean leaders meeting in “Third, engage them as much as Navarro to a new role, however, might the United States, which Dr Medeiros possible. See this as an opportunity to be interesting, Dr Medeiros said. Prof pushed for and ultimately took place teach them and educate them about Navarro, a well-known China critic who last February. the importance of South-east Asia to wrote the book Death By China, will American interests. lead the newly created White House DUTERTE “The arguments for Asean-US ties National Trade Council and has the task are very, very compelling but they are of working on trade policies to shrink ‘OVER-CRANKED’ not normal and natural, especially for America’s trade deficit, expand growth CHINA SHIFT a leader like Trump who doesn’t have and help stop the exodus of jobs from a lot of experience in the Asia-Pacific.” US shores. Dr Medeiros was not perturbed about Singapore has a leadership opportu- Mr Trump has already taken a dif- the changing nature of US-Philippine nity here to lead within Asean to ensure ferent tack on the Taiwan issue, and ties under President Rodrigo Duterte, that Asean understands that it’s going to said the “one China” policy is up for who has shown interest in forging closer go through a period when the US might negotiation. He is going to be aggressive ties with Beijing. not be as engaged, he said. on trade issues and has already criti- Manila might soon do a 180-degree “It’s worth Singapore taking a cised China on its North Korea policy turn on US policy once Mr Trump takes leadership role among the TPP 11 as well. “That’s a lot to take on in the charge, he said. countries, to make sure that the TPP first year,” Dr Medeiros said, adding “I think he (Mr Duterte) recognises doesn’t get cast away. And then just to that the confrontational approach that he over-cranked in shifting towards reach out to the US as much as possible.” might put countries in the region in China. difficult, awkward positions and force “The Filipino population is quite [email protected] them to choose between Washington pro-US for historic and cultural reasons. and Beijing. “I think they are quite sceptical of The writer is Asia News Network Editor with The Straits Times
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Ravi Velloor Associate Editor, The Straits Times A Trump hammer on Asian nails
If the US under President Trump chose to go it alone in Asia to confront China, that would sit uncomfortably with a region that abhors conflict
sians trying to decode United States President Donald Trump’s strategy towards their region – and indeed, wondering Aif there is a strategy at all – have more to ponder upon, now that the first senior administration official has travelled in
their region. ST ILLUSTRATION: MANNY FRANCISCO Interestingly, it is not Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who is well- for many, many years to come”. Further Even if those words were spoken off networked in these parts, but Defence along he had promised to “reinforce old the cuff, they come from a seasoned Secretary James Mattis who travelled alliances and form new ones”. executive trained to not over-speak. For to Asia. That this is General Mattis’ Although the context for the latter the same reason, White House Press first overseas trip in his new role is remark was the fight against radical Secretary Sean Spicer’s comments on significant. That it took him to Japan and Islam, it is fair to assume that you cannot the same issue also merit attention. South Korea suggests that the situation possibly expect to determine the course “It’s a question of if those islands are on the Korean Peninsula is top of Mr of the world by staying at home. Mr in fact in international waters and not Trump’s mind, if it is not about getting Trump, despite his reputation for having part of China proper,” Mr Spicer said, both these nations to pay more for the a short attention span, would surely “then yeah, we’re going to make sure American security umbrella. have taken a good look at the draft that we defend international territories At his Senate confirmation hearing, speech and added his own input. So, from being taken over by one country.” Gen Mattis had said that “the Pacific the words were not accidentally placed. Who knows, there just might be a theatre remains a priority in my mind”. The question is whether wider Asia plan after all. Now he is showing he can be good on and its various issues also matter to Mr his word. Those who’d lamented that Trump, and to what degree. Of that, the MILITARISTIC BENT Mr Trump’s key appointments suggest evidence is yet to be presented. Asean, that the new administration would have for instance, was a word that Mr Trump If one does exist, it will have the a “Centcom, not Pacom” view of the did not utter during his entire campaign. backing of the grey eminences of world will be a bit reassured that Pacific True, there are some recent state- the Republican Party that have been Command has got some early attention. ments from his key people that have wringing their hands at then President Perhaps it is time to take another aroused interest. Mr Tillerson’s remarks Barack Obama’s apparent unwillingness look at Mr Trump’s inauguration speech. at his Senate confirmation hearing, for to confront China. Last June, meeting on Coverage of that address tended to instance, suggested a tough line on the the fringes of the Shangri-La Dialogue focus largely on his isolationist slant South China Sea: “We are going to have with Republican senators John McCain on trade and other issues. Yet, in the to send China a clear signal that, first, and Lindsey Graham, I was taken aback very first minute he had also vowed the island-building stops and, second, at the vehemence with which both spoke to “determine the course of America, your access to those islands also is not about China’s assertive behaviour. AND THE WORLD (emphasis added), going to be allowed.” Senator McCain suggested that the US
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President should assemble a team of 10 of his best generals and diplomats – including people like General David Petraeus, Lieutenant-General Sean MacFarland and the diplomats Kurt Campbell and Ryan Crocker – to discuss how best to tackle China. “They’ll know what to do,” he said. While the names may differ, the militaristic bent of people given charge of defence, homeland security and national security, not to speak of the National Security Council (NSC) assembled by Mr Trump, suggests a group that has little patience for nuances. This is quite unlike Mr Obama’s NSC, which had a sprinkling of think-tank types. Meanwhile, the State Department’s likely No. 2 is Mr Elliott Abrams, a former Defence Secretary James Mattis had said at his Senate confirmation hearing that “the Pacific theatre White House and State Department remains a priority in my mind”. Now he is showing he can be good on his word. PHOTO: AFP official who a quarter century ago was involved in secret operations to arm and fund Nicaraguan rebels during the Iran- underwater drone in international the first Asian leader he called since Contra affair. waters as a farewell slight to Mr Obama taking office – following conversations This plays to Mr Trump’s personality. – clever and audacious as it seemed then with the leaders of Canada and Mexico Like other strongmen leaders in Russia, – was ill-advised. on Saturday, Israel and Egypt on Sunday China and India, his is very much a President Xi Jinping’s Davos speech – was Prime Minister Narendra Modi. go-it-alone sort of personality that has outlining a commitment to open trade at That euphoria could be short-lived. little time for the careful structures and a time when America is “locking itself Mr Trump may feel a sense of kinship multilateral efforts attempted by Mr in a dark room” was more evidence of with India on account of a shared Obama. Indeed, critics say the former China’s leader casting himself in the wariness of extremist Islam. But he president’s major weakness in handling role of the anti-Trump. has moved to crack down on H1B China was that he tended to act too Some analysts believe this also is why visas, a matter of critical importance much like the community organiser he it quickly dusted off Mr Jiang Zemin’s to India’s outsourcing industry and its was before entering politics. policy of qiu tong cun yi (seeking skilled engineers. Neither will he have This suggests a raw edge to come common ground) and presented it on any sympathy for Mr Modi’s “Make in in American foreign policy that might Jan 11 as a new White Paper for Asia- India” policy. seem attractive to some. In the long run, Pacific cooperation. The last thing China Besides, a president who is averse though, it will sit uncomfortably with wants to see is a G-2 arrangement to multiculturalism at home cannot an Asia that abhors conflict, is reluctant whereby the second party is not itself, be expected to have a kindly view of to take sides and essentially seeks but Russia. other cultures. For the same reason, no good behaviour all round so people Interestingly, the paper, while Malaysian leader, especially one likely can focus on improving their lives. asserting that China would step up to call elections soon, can afford to be As the psychologist Abraham Maslow its regional and global security role, publicly too chummy with Mr Trump. said a half-century ago, if all you have advised medium-sized and small nations Asia also needs to prepare for a is a hammer the tendency is to treat to avoid taking sides when it came to presidency that’s going to be distracted everything else as a nail. dealing with big powers. That is an by domestic issues. The unprecedented Do not expect Mr Trump, therefore, indication of where Beijing thinks the women’s march the day after the to expend too much presidential time situation is moving to. inauguration, Mr Trump’s stated desire on meetings such as the Apec and East Elsewhere in Asia, Mr Trump arouses to roll back Obamacare and his moves Asia Summits. mixed feelings. Myanmar is likely to feel on sending back illegal migrants and little pressure from him on the tricky a hostile media all presage a period CHINA SEEKS issue of Rohingya Muslims, Thailand’s of deep unrest at home for one of the military ruler and the President of most unpopular men ever to take the COMMON GROUND the Philippines – the latter has come world’s most powerful position. It will China, which rooted for Candidate under pressure from the powerful be a miracle if he finds time for a deep Trump because of its distaste for church over his policy of eliminating look at Asian issues. Mrs Hillary Clinton, architect of the drug runners – will probably welcome Departing US vice-president Joe American pivot to Asia, may wish the an American President who does not Biden probably said it best when he results turned out otherwise. Although preach to them on domestic issues. likened attempts to figure out Mr Trump Chinese spokesmen have responded to Indeed, President Rodrigo Duterte to studying a Rubik’s cube. “We have Trump administration officials with their has already recalibrated his approach no freaking idea what he’s gonna do!” own bluster, Beijing has clearly begun to to China in a mild way as he waits for take the new President very seriously. Mr Trump to show his hand. In hindsight, seizing the American Likewise, Indians are gladdened that [email protected] 9 Cover Story
Warren Fernandez Editor-in-Chief Crafting a sustainable future for globalisation
Davos delegates debated the liberal economic order’s prospects amid rising populism
PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: CHNG CHOON HIONG & ISTOCKPHOTO
he new United States Little wonder then that many began look the fact that Mr Xi had referred President, Mr Donald to fear for the future of the liberal global repeatedly in his speech to “economic Trump, would have been order that they had long championed globalisation”, without quite embracing pleased with the outcome and benefited from. Who will safeguard the liberal political values and multi- of this year’s meeting of the project, keep it going and perhaps lateral approaches that are associated Tthe World Economic Forum (WEF), one give it a renewed push? with globalisation. He had also called delegate said wryly when she wrapped Enter China’s Xi Jinping. He made for reforms to “Western-centred” in- up a debate. history by becoming the first President ternational institutions and promoted The reason: Delegates had spent of China to address the Davos set. But Beijing-backed initiatives for collabo- much of their time talking about him. his well-crafted address was memorable ration, such as the One Belt, One Road They had pondered the significance more for what he said. Many delegates effort to develop infrastructure linking of his unexpected election, wondered were plainly chuffed at his robust defence Asia and the wider world. at the meaning of his recent interviews of free trade and open markets. Mr Xi Not so fast, declared the outgoing US and tweets and worried about what it warmed their hearts when he declared Vice-President Joe Biden, in a speech might all portend for the world, during that it was “pointless blaming the world’s the very next day. Leaders in the West many of more than 400 sessions held economic woes on globalisation as that could not leave it to others to safeguard over the week-long conference. was not the case” and “would not globalisation, he said, urging them to The stage had been set at the start solve the problems”. He also rejected keep up the “big-hearted, audacious, of the forum, as thousands of business protectionism and warned that “there visionary” fight for the institutions and government leaders arrived in the were no winners in a trade war”. and initiatives that their forefathers alpine Swiss town of Davos for their If Mr Xi was signalling China’s had worked so hard to foster, including annual retreat to take stock of the state readiness to step into the void left by Nato, the EU, the United Nations, of the world. an America which was turning inwards, Bretton Woods and the Marshall Plan. News began to spread that the delegates were prepared to cheer him He went on to single out Russian incoming President had declared the on - never mind the irony of the global President Vladimir Putin as someone Nato alliance “obsolete”, called the liberal economic order being upheld by with a “different vision of the future”, European Union (EU) a “vehicle for a nominally communist country, once one aimed at splitting the world into Germany” and even wondered aloud itself deeply sceptical about opening up regional spheres of influence at the about slapping tariffs on BMWs, the cars to the world. expense of liberal democracies and an so prized by many in this affluent circle. Many also seemed willing to over- internationalist world order.
10 Cover Story
Then, just as delegates were getting apart from sharing wealth more fairly, ready to don their black-tie suits for steps were also needed to “reinvigorate the conference’s closing night gala, Mr economic growth”. Years of economic Trump sent them all a message that stagnation had given rise to high reverberated around the Swiss Alps. In a unemployment, especially among young defiant inaugural address, he made plain people, in many countries. Slow growth just what he thought of globalisation: meant governments had less resources to “From this day forward, a new vision tackle challenges like income inequality will govern our land. From this moment, or to launch education and retraining it’s going to be only America first! programmes to equip their peoples for America first!” the jobs of the future in the face of rapid He also said: “We must protect and relentless technological change. our borders from the ravages of other To give this need for more inclusive countries making our products, stealing growth a push, the WEF launched a new our companies and destroying our jobs. Inclusive Growth And Development Protection will lead to great prosperity Report. Rather than focusing on and strength.” economic growth and competitiveness, At the World Economic Forum in Davos, So, at the end of a bewilderingly busy the report tracks a wider set of indicators founder and executive chairman Klaus week, the global leaders gathered in to give a “more complete picture of Schwab, seen above with Chinese President Xi Jinping, noted that apart from sharing Davos were left no more assured about national economic performance” than wealth more fairly, steps were also needed the prospects for the liberal world order just gross domestic product alone. to “reinvigorate economic growth”. they had helped to fashion than when PHOTO: REUTERS they arrived in Switzerland, with many The implications of Mr harbouring a deeper sense of foreboding Trump’s populist message an end in themselves. Rather, harnessing for what’s to come. had become clear to all: If technology to make cities more liveable globalisation was to have and sustainable would help meet the IT’S THE ECONOMY, any chance of surviving, it economic and political imperatives of STUPID would have to be reformed ensuring that workers had good-quality, to ensure that the spoils high-paying jobs. This was what all But the implications of Mr Trump’s of economic liberalisation leaders everywhere were charged with populist message had become clear to and integration are delivering, he argued. all: If globalisation was to have any shared more widely. Similarly, when asked during a panel chance of surviving, it would have to on Asia’s security outlook as to what the be reformed to ensure that the spoils of As Mr Rick Samans, a member of Trump administration’s foreign policy economic liberalisation and integration the WEF’s managing board who led agenda might entail for the region - are shared more widely. work on the report, said: “The world given some rather loose talk and tweets International Monetary Fund chief faces problems of declining economic in recent weeks - the minister deftly Christine Lagarde told participants in growth and widening income inequality. sidestepped the minefield by saying he one session that “growth will not be Tackling these however requires a preferred to judge the new President on sustainable if it is not inclusive”. Noting rebalancing of the idea that there his actions rather than words. that she had flagged the dangers of is necessarily a trade-off between Mr Trump, he added, was “an rising income inequalities at this forum economic efficiency and equity. What intelligent man” and would know some years ago but no one had paid that the world, including China and we are saying is that we need a new much attention, she added that “if the US, needed peace and stability, if growth model that is more inclusive and policymakers don’t get it now, I don’t governments were to deliver on their sustainable.” know when they will”. top concern: good jobs for their peoples. Others agreed, including Mr Biden, In view of this, he remained sanguine who pointedly told delegates that the top GETTING SMARTER about the future, as good sense was 1 per cent of many developed countries But economic growth and social likely to prevail, he added reassuringly. “were not pulling their weight” and inclusion aside, Mr Trump also managed So, after more than 400 discussions would have to accept higher tax burdens to feature in discussions on a whole and despite much angst over what Mr to build more inclusive societies. Closing range of other issues, from climate Trump’s new “America first” approach tax loopholes, for example, would yield change - Mr Xi urged him not to walk might portend, the bottom line seemed enough funds to pay for free college away from the Paris Agreement but to clear: If globalisation is to survive, education in the US, he said. Others accept the responsibility of tackling business and government leaders will proposed a basic universal income for global warming for the sake of future have to take steps to ensure it delivers all workers - the notion that the state generations - to the efforts to develop on what most people want, namely, a should guarantee all workers a minimum smarter cities, as well as boosting better quality of life for themselves standard of living paid out of its tax security in Asia. and their children. Only then will the coffers to foster social inclusion - an During a discussion on smarter global liberal economic order prevail idea that was gaining some traction, but cities, Singapore’s Foreign Minister in the face of the populist backlash remained too radical for some other Vivian Balakrishnan put the issue in that the likes of Mr Trump have cap- participants. its wider context when he noted that italised on. The WEF’s founder and executive these initiatives were not just about chairman Klaus Schwab noted that deploying newfangled technologies as [email protected] 11 Cover Story
Jonathan Eyal Europe Correspondent, The Straits Times Will Trump-Putin ‘bromance’ transform US-Russian ties?
PHOTO: AFP
theory explanations. Mr Trump is, sides. This is the story of a divorce slated Different strategic supposedly, obsessed with the topic to occur before the partners even go out interests and because he’s a Russian agent under on a date, let alone get married. deep cover, a real-life “Manchurian There was always something very expectations make Candidate”, following the example of odd about Mr Trump’s fascination with it unlikely that the character from the famous Cold Russia, and with Russian President the Trump-Putin War movie who was programmed by Vladimir Putin. Russian spies to take over the US. Or, The two have almost certainly never relationship will alternatively, that the new US President met face to face, although Mr Trump, bring substantive is being blackmailed by the Russians, just like many other international who allegedly have compromising businessmen who exaggerate their change in US-Russia material on him. connections in high places, frequently ties or a strategic Yet, there is also a more humdrum and implied that he did. perhaps more persuasive explanation: Furthermore, Mr Putin is hardly partnership That the new occupant of the White a household name in the US; most House genuinely believes in the ordinary American voters have no advantages of friendship with Russia. idea who he is, and those who do f all the policy vows that Be that as it may, the chances that recognise the name are unlikely to have United States President Russia and the US will join hands in a a positive opinion of the Russian leader. Donald Trump made and new strategic partnership remain very Meanwhile, Russia itself is not popular unmade during his long slim indeed. For even if they genuinely in the US, and foreign policy initiatives electoral campaign, none try, leaders in both Washington and hardly swing elections. Ohas been more prominent or more Moscow will soon discover that what So, far from being a vote-winner, durable than his promise to forge a new they are prepared to offer each other, Mr Trump’s repeated pleas for an strategic partnership with Russia. neither will find very appealing, while American partnership with Russia were The promise has been repeated so the price each partner expects to extract an electoral liability; as time went by, often and in such categorical terms that from the other for such a strategic deal they became one of the biggest political it has spawned a wave of conspiracy will be deemed unacceptable by both millstones around Mr Trump’s neck. Yet,
12 Cover Story the Republican candidate persevered in affection between the top leaders in But at the same time, although praising “Mr Pyoot’n”, as he calls the Moscow and Washington are evidently the Russians have their own reasons Russian leader. mutual. to mistrust the Chinese, they have no intention of cooperating with the US in MUTUAL EXPECTATIONS GAP containing China. That’s partly because China will retaliate by challenging the Yet, this does not mean that they can ADMIRATION already declining Russian influence in actually forge a strategic partnership, for Mr Trump’s admiration for Mr Putin Central Asia, but also because it is in there is a huge gap in the expectations is partly explainable by the broader Russia’s interest to have a powerful of both partners in this putative popularity which the Russian President China as a permanent counter-balance relationship. has enjoyed for years among far-right to the US. Although Mr Trump has never political circles in the industrialised world. The Russians may well be tempted spelt out in detail what he wants Within these circles – which Mr to engage in their own China-hedging. from Moscow, it is clear that there are Trump also frequented – Mr Putin is Yet, they will do that – and, arguably, two tasks for which he deems Russia seen as a can-do, no-nonsense leader are already doing it – with the help of useful. The first is Russian cooperation older Russian partners such as India or who rejects political correctness, has no to “eradicate completely from the Vietnam, rather than in conjunction with difficulty in claiming that Christianity face of the earth” the “radical Islamic the Americans, who are always liable is superior to all other religions, does terrorism”, as Mr Trump put it in his to dump the Russians at a later stage not know what ethnic diversity is, and inauguration speech. And the second by playing the “China card” against believes that gays should remain in the is eliciting potential Russian support Moscow, as the Americans did during closet, that the poor should remain poor in cornering China, the one power Mr the 1970s. and that “traditional family values” Trump sees as presenting the US with And even if one assumes that should mean that women stay at home, the biggest and most sustained strategic America’s new president is prepared to somewhere between the kitchen and challenge. the bedroom. put the China question aside and forge Whether these are “post-liberal” a partial strategic deal with Russia over The rise of people like Mr Europe and the Middle East, it’s difficult values, as some Western intellectuals Rex Tillerson, President now complain or merely 19th to see how this will be accomplished, century liberal values as some of Mr Trump’s nominee for US or what purpose it will serve. Putin’s defenders allege, is ultimately secretary of state, only The US can abandon Ukraine to Rus- immaterial; Mr Putin’s ability to reject reinforces Mr Putin’s sia by simply stopping all economic and and defy the current political wisdom perception that political military assistance to that country. But by exposing current Western societies as trends are now running in it cannot “deliver” Eastern Europe to morally bankrupt has made him hugely his favour, since Mr Tillerson a Russian sphere of influence even if it popular with Western right-wingers. is not just an old partner, wanted to; this is not 1945 when, at the end of World War II, countries were bar- Mr Trump also has more specific but also a master in the reasons for liking Mr Putin, for the tered away with the mere whisk of a pen. business which keeps Russia Nor is it very obvious what the Russians system over which Mr Putin presides going: oil and natural gas. is one run by oligarchs, hugely wealthy can actually do to eradicate terrorism. individuals who blend family, business Either way, the admiration The Russian military can drop bombs, and politics in every day’s work. Mr and perhaps even affection but bombs are precisely the commodity Putin detests intellectuals and believes between the top leaders in Mr Trump does not lack either. that media outlets that do not praise Moscow and Washington Yet, on almost every other count, the him are merely lying. He also has a real- are evidently mutual. Russians are part of the problem rather estate view of international relations: than part of the solution to terrorism: Their internal problem with domestic Mr Putin’s world is divided between Yet, the Russians have very different separatists and marginalisation feeds properties he either owns or wants to objectives. Moscow is happy to cooperate violence, and Russia has one of the own, and those owned by competitors. with the US on counter-terrorism highest rates of people volunteering The similarities between Mr Putin’s measures, but sees that as merely a for terrorism. A true Russian counter- and Mr Trump’s visions are, therefore, diversion from the top priority, which terrorism partnership should entail a compelling. And although the Russian is to regain for Russia the status as a change in domestic Russian policies, leader has largely kept a polite silence global power, a country whose support precisely what neither Mr Putin nor about the US elections, there is little is required in the management of any Mr Trump is seeking. doubt that he views Mr Trump’s future world crisis. In sum, therefore, the Russia- inauguration as a personal vindication: And that means an acceptance that US relationship is one doomed As seen from Moscow, it’s the US Russia should be allowed to have its from the start; the partners are not political system which is now copying own spheres of influence in Europe and merely incompatible, they don’t even some Russian features, rather than the Central Asia, since without these, it’s understand each other’s aspirations, other way around. difficult to see why the US should allow and most certainly have no incentive The rise of people like Mr Rex Russia – a country with a population to address each other’s needs. Tillerson, President Trump’s secretary not much bigger than Japan’s and an The only remaining question is of state, only reinforces Mr Putin’s economy not much bigger than that of whether President Trump wants to perception that political trends are now Italy – a permanent place at the top table. pursue this dream or whether, like a good running in his favour, since Mr Tillerson The continued crisis in Ukraine is businessman who realises that he’s faced is not just an old partner, but also a largely about getting Western approval with a dud business proposal, he cuts his master in the business which keeps for the establishment of a Russian losses and moves on to other projects. Russia going: oil and natural gas. Either sphere of influence, and Mr Putin has no way, the admiration and perhaps even intention of compromising on this quest. [email protected]
13 By Invitation
John Wong For The Straits Times Trump’s worrying trade war with China
President Donald Trump may think the US has the upper hand, but in this globalised world, even a partial trade war could spark a chain reaction that brings down the global economy, with effects that boomerang back to the US domestic economy
he United States is the world’s largest economy, China the second. China is the world’s largest trading nation, the US the second. TThe two countries have long established the world’s most important and consequential trade relationship, which is now under threat by US President ST ILLUSTRATION Donald Trump. Mr Trump has brought about one for China’s leaders, as the 19th come down, even though US trade enormous uncertainty and serious party congress is due to take place in deficits have continued to grow. Ba- concerns, not just to China but also to November. The congress is held every sic macroeconomics tells us that the many other countries. His preferences five years to decide the country’s future root cause of the US’ trade deficit is for trade protectionism and anti- leadership. That is why good and stable its overconsumption and undersaving, globalisation and his mercantilist economic growth is of grave importance just as China’s trade surplus is due to approach to economic policies could to Beijing this year. its high domestic savings. harm the global economy. Before 2014, the yuan appreciated Specifically, during his election ANATOMY OF more than 20 per cent against the campaign, Mr Trump singled out China US dollar. But today, it has become as a potential target for trade sanctions. AMERICA’S CHINA seriously overvalued, and fell 7 per cent First, he accused China of being a ECONOMIC CARD against the dollar last year. Against a “currency manipulator” and said that backdrop of rampant capital flight, the he would instruct his Treasury Secretary The charge that China manipulates Chinese government has striven very to label China as such within 100 days the yuan exchange rate would have hard to maintain the stability of the of taking office. been relevant years ago, when China’s yuan exchange rate by tightening capital Second, he charged China with economy was growing at double-digit controls. Mr Trump’s currency policy “stealing American jobs” by dumping rates, fuelled by an export boom. Today, on China would likely bring about a exports on the US and threatened to however, such a charge of currency perverse outcome. impose a punitive 45 per cent tariff on manipulation is simply dated. By comparison, Mr Trump’s threat Chinese imports. Today, China’s economic growth is to hit China on the trade front is much Both threats are serious. What worries driven by domestic consumption, with more credible – and potentially more Beijing and the rest of the world is how exports experiencing negative growth in damaging, particularly with the recent Mr Trump will follow through on them. recent years as rising wages – growing appointment of the anti-China hawk These external uncertainties could at double-digit rates for 10 years – and Peter Navarro to head the newly formed not have come at a worse time for China, rising costs have seriously eroded its National Trade Council. Mr Trump with its economy slowing down amid comparative advantage. clearly means business. rapid and difficult structural adjustment. Accordingly, China’s current ac- A partial trade restriction with sanc- This year is a politically significant count surplus in recent years has also tions against certain Chinese imports to
14 By Invitation the US through its trade remedy measure US–China trade Chinese goods US goods exports could breach World Trade Organisation exports to US to China rules. Full-scale sanctions against a wide US$ billion range of Chinese products with punish- 500 468 483 440 423 ing tariffs at 45 per cent would spell a 399 426 400 365 trade war. 321 338 288 296 In 2015, two-way trade amounted 300 to US$560 billion (S$795 billion). Last year, the US was China’s largest export 200 122 124 116 market, taking up 19 per cent of China’s 92 104 111 104 total exports, while China was only the 100 54 63 70 70 third-largest export market for the US, 0 with a 10 per cent share. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* As China is exporting far more to the US, a trade gap has naturally arisen, with NOTE: *As of end November Sources: US CENSUS BUREAU, AFP STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS the US incurring a large trade deficit of US$367 billion for 2015, though it is only They have also ignored the positive neighbours. It will be a trade war nobody US$260 billion by Chinese accounts. externalities of China’s manufactured in Asia wants. China’s persistent trade surplus with imports, such as Americans enjoying Mr Trump could, of course, just target the US has become a constant source low-cost products free of inflation and a few key commodities or take specific of trade friction between them. But pollution. The heavy fog over China’s measures against China’s investment the real size of China’s trade surplus big cities bears witness to the high social and merger-and-acquisition activities. has been exaggerated. US exports to cost of pollution that China has not But hurting China’s economy in such China are mostly agricultural products priced into its manufactured exports a way would hardly “make America and primary commodities and some to the US. great again”. advanced manufactured items such as Economic games can be win-win aircraft and cars, all with a very high or lose-lose. A free trade agreement CHINA’S WORST degree of domestic value-added. between two countries – in creating In contrast, China’s exports to the more trade – is a win-win for both, EXTERNAL THREAT US are mostly electronics and electrical while a trade war – in whatever form – As China’s economic growth has machinery and a wide range of labour- is potentially a lose-lose act. It would become much more broad-based and intensive, “Walmart type” products with certainly be unimaginable for the less dependent on exports, it has also low domestic value-added for China. world’s two economic giants to engage become more resilient to external The US could not easily replace the in a real trade war. fluctuations. Nonetheless, the external value-added imports from China. For uncertainties that China is facing today China’s labour-intensive imports, the Economic games can be are unprecedented and likely the most US trade sanction could possibly open win-win or lose-lose. A free serious since the start of its open-door the door for substitutes from other trade agreement between policy in 1978. emerging countries, but certainly not two countries – in creating The gathering uncertainty has already from domestic sources. The US economy more trade – is a win-win created a sense of imminent crisis that is just too advanced and high-cost for for both, while a trade will hurt investment and consumption. import substitution of many labour- Any whiff of a trade war or partial trade intensive foreign products. Such a policy war – in whatever form – is potentially a lose-lose sanctions would undermine China’s would thus have little or no effect on financial market and precipitate more US employment creation. act. It would certainly be capital flight, adding more pressure on The bulk of China’s manufactured unimaginable for the world’s the yuan. exports are the result of numerous two economic giants to China has put a high priority on regional and global production networks engage in a real trade war. maintaining reasonable stability of the based in China, with the made-in-China yuan, which is crucial for its domestic finished products made up of parts from The US economy, being the stronger financial and monetary stability. Serious other countries. The classic example is and more advanced, has more cards yuan instability will also adversely affect the iPhone, which yields only a small to play against China, Mr Trump may China’s exports, international business fraction of its total cost to Chinese well be thinking. That may be the case strategy, outgoing overseas investment labour for processing it. The iPhone’s in a one-to-one conflict. However, a and tourism, and undermine various various component makers from Japan, trade war – even a partial one – in this international economic diplomatic South Korea, Taiwan and the US take up highly globalised world, with intricate initiatives under the One Belt, One far larger shares of the total value-add. commercial connectivity and linkages, Road scheme. is likely to produce a dynamic chain Even without the outbreak of a real SAVING JOBS? reaction that could bring down the global trade war with the US, a potentially Mr Trump’s ultimate objective is to economy, with many unanticipated side more hostile America would be enough “save American jobs”. In traditional effects that might boomerang back to to worry Beijing, particularly at this economic theory, the links between the US domestic economy. juncture, as its economy is facing many China’s overall trade surplus and overall As China has already established domestic headwinds. US job losses are just too tenuous. While extensive trade links with its neighbouring economies and its manufactured exports China has chalked up a huge surplus in [email protected] its merchandise trade with the US, what to the US are tied to the region’s supply American politicians have often ignored is chains, any potential US sanction against The writer is a professorial fellow at that the US has regularly incurred a huge Chinese imports could well produce the East Asian Institute, National surplus in its services trade with China. a lot of collateral damage to China’s University of Singapore. 15 By Invitation
Tommy Koh For The Straits Times 2017: Three great expectations
hen I think of written in support of the Trans-Pacific 2017, three events Partnership. He has also testified in dominate my mind. the US Congress in favour of the US First, on Jan 20, Mr acceding to the UN Convention on the Donald Trump was Law of the Sea. He is not an ideologue Winaugurated as the 45th President of but a pragmatist. We are confident that the United States of America. Second, he will be a successful secretary of state. on Aug 8, Asean will commemorate its 50th anniversary. Third, the next ASEAN TURNS 50 Singapore presidential election will On Aug 8, Asean will mark its 50th be held on or before Aug 26. I wish to birthday. It is an event which all of us in discuss each of those three events and Singapore and in South-east Asia should explain why they are important and how celebrate. When Asean was born in 1967, they will have an impact on our lives. many pundits in the West predicted that it would die in its infancy. They pointed THE TRUMP out that the region was too diverse and there were few commonalities among PRESIDENCY the founding five countries. This was a The US is the only superpower in time when some commentators in the the world. It has the world’s largest West had described South-east Asia as economy, the most powerful military the Balkans of Asia. and very attractive soft power. There is When the Cold War ended, the no other country like it. detractors of Asean in the West said At the end of World War II, the US that Asean was doomed. They described led the victorious allies in designing Asean as a creature of the Cold War. The the post-war order. The vision was to reasoning was that with the end of the create a new world order based on the Cold War, Asean had lost its reason for sovereign equality of states, the rule of being and would therefore fade away. law and collective security. Over the past 50 years, Asean has On the economic side, the vision overcome many challenges. It has grown was to create an economic order based from strength to strength. It is, today, one on free trade, stable currencies and of the world’s most successful regional cooperation to promote development. organisations. I will highlight three of It was also part of the vision to promote its most important achievements. democracy and human rights. Asean has transformed South-east To fulfil that vision, several multilat- Asia from a region of war and conflict eral institutions were established. They ST ILLUSTRATION: MIEL to a region of peace and stability. include the United Nations, the Interna- It is not yet possible to say that war tional Monetary Fund, the World Bank America great again” with or without between Asean countries is unthinkable. and the General Agreement on Tariffs regard to the interests of others? However, when an armed conflict and Trade (which has evolved to become We do not know the answers to occurred along the Cambodian-Thai the World Trade Organisation). those questions. We can, however, take border, Asean intervened by trying Every US president since Franklin comfort from some of the individuals to calm the situation and urging the Delano Roosevelt has, to a greater or whom President Trump has nominated. two sides to show restraint. Indonesia lesser extent, adhered to that vision and The Secretary of State and the Defence offered to send observers to the border. supported those institutions of global Secretary are two of the most important The UN Security Council outsourced governance. The question is whether posts in the Cabinet. General James the management of the crisis to Asean. the 45th President of the United States, “Mad Dog” Mattis, the new defence The second achievement of Asean is Mr Donald Trump, will do the same or secretary, has a solid reputation in economic. The rise of Asean in the world depart from precedent and make a Washington. He earned his nickname economy is one of the three biggest paradigm shift. in the Marine Corps as a charismatic growth stories of human history. Asean Under his leadership, will the US and tough-minded military commander. has become an economic community. become isolationist? Mr Rex Tillerson, the new secretary The ambition is to create a single market Will the US continue to champion of state, is well known to Singapore’s and production base by eliminating free trade and globalisation or will it leaders. ExxonMobil, the company tariffs and other trade barriers. With become protectionist and pursue a which he leads, is a major investor in 620 million consumers, Asean has a mercantilist trade policy? Singapore and a good corporate citizen. combined GDP of US$2.3 trillion (S$3.3 Will the US pursue the goal “to make Mr Tillerson is a free trader and has trillion), making it the seventh-largest
16 By Invitation economy in the world. The combined seen in Britain and the US. issue? I hold the view that the highest GDP is projected to increase by more The third challenge is to stay united office of our Republic, the presidency, than fourfold to US$10 trillion by 2030. in the face of intensified competition by should not be the monopoly or the This will make Asean the fourth-largest the major powers, especially between duopoly of one or two ethnic groups. economy in the world. the US and China. Individual Asean It should be held by worthy individuals The third achievement of Asean is governments must have the wisdom to from the different ethnic groups. perhaps the most remarkable. The 10 realise that Asean must remain united I like the old system of the Parliament member states of Asean have been able and neutral if it is to retain the central electing the president. Under that system, to unite and act as one. It has established role it plays in the regional architecture. we had an excellent Malay president, Mr fruitful relations with its 10 dialogue Yusof Ishak, and an excellent Eurasian partners, which include all the major ELECTING president, Dr Benjamin Sheares. powers. It has established several forums The Government is not confident to promote dialogue, mutual trust and SINGAPORE’S that, in an open election, we will ever cooperation, such as the Asean Regional EIGHTH PRESIDENT elect a Malay or a Eurasian to that high Forum, Asean Plus Three, the East Asia The Singapore electorate will elect its office. This is the rationale behind the Summit and the Asean Defence Ministers procedure of reserving an election for a Plus. Asean chairs all these forums. eighth president on or before Aug 26. The Singapore Government has declared particular ethnic group. Is it a violation Does Asean have a bright future? I of the principle of meritocracy? We think Asean has a bright future but it that the next presidential election will be reserved for Malay candidates. have two competing principles at play: faces several important challenges. the principle of meritocracy and the The first challenge is to ensure that it Singapore has not had a Malay president since Mr Yusof Ishak in 1970. principle of inclusiveness. is securely anchored in the hearts and In most situations, the principle of minds of the 620 million citizens of I had expected my Malay friends to welcome the decision to have a reserved meritocracy should prevail over the Asean. Asean must not be seen by the principle of inclusiveness. However, people as a project of the elite and of election for our eighth president. Much to in this case, I would like the principle big business. my surprise, several of my Malay friends of inclusiveness to prevail over the The second challenge is for the told me that they did not like the idea. principle of meritocracy. I therefore individual governments of the 10 They explained that it would violate the look forward to voting for an eminently countries to take good care of the people principle of meritocracy. They said they qualified Malay candidate this year to who will be adversely affected by trade would prefer a Malay president to be be our eighth president. liberalisation and economic integration. elected in an open competition and not This must be done in order to avoid a in a reserved election. populist backlash of the nature we have What is my attitude towards the [email protected]
An
insider’s view into the corridors of power that the author once walked through. This book is an engaging read penned by a gifted writer with great empathy for his country and countrymen.” LAI KWOK KIN founder and managing director of WeR1 Group
Now on sale at all major bookstores and www.stpressbooks.com.sg 17 On Our Radar 3 big risks in 2017: China, oil, debt
ST ILLUSTRATION: MIEL
Will the uncertain global environment derail China’s growth trajectory? Will oil-producing nations stick to their quotas and how will American shale-oil production impact on prices? Meanwhile, concern over debt-defaults in Singapore and beyond are going up. ST’s business correspondents give their take:
18 On Our Radar
Grace Leong Business Correspondent, The Straits Times China: Can it withstand the risks to its growth?
Global uncertainty, China’s GDP growth rate % (inflation adjusted) frothy mainland 16 property markets 12 and a falling 6.5* yuan may impact 8 on the country’s 4 growth prospects 0 1981 1991 2001 2011 2017 NOTE: *Projection hina’s economy has shown Sources: NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS OF CHINA, REUTERS STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS signs of stabilising in recent months. US$348 billion (S$495 billion), followed Producer prices emerged by Japan at US$69 billion. OTHER DANGERS from a four-year-long defla- That means China and Japan would But its growth is expected to Ctionary period in September last year decelerate in the coming years as it be affected the most by a protection- and have continued to edge up. ist regime, given their significant trade transitions from an export-led economy This has helped to boost corporate surpluses with the US. By sector, tele- to one led by domestic consumption and profits and business confidence in the communications equipment, computers services, which accounted for more than world’s second-largest economy. and automatic data processing parts, and half of growth for the first time last year. But an uncertain global environment cars would be affected the most. Investment in machinery and after Mr Donald Trump’s presidential Bank of Singapore economist Richard equipment will likely be constrained election win in the United States, frothy Jerram warned that if US protectionism by lacklustre exports and a potential mainland property markets, a falling provoked a response from trade downturn in construction this year, yuan (despite a recent rebound) and partners, the world could descend into ANZ economist Raymond Yeung said. high corporate debt could affect whether a trade war. “In our view, the biggest uncertainty China is able to achieve its 6.5 per cent China’s response will be key as its facing China in 2017 is the price economic growth target this year. economy looks vulnerable but it is not a direction of global commodities. If there good candidate to be bullied, as it could is to be a surprise decline in oil prices RISKS TO GROWTH retaliate, he said. again to US$20 to US$30 a barrel, Mr Ahya said: “In the event that the deflationary concerns will be reignited. One of the biggest risks to China’s US imposes a tariff of 5 per cent or 20 We are confident in China’s ability to growth is from a potential trade war per cent, China may opt to... selectively withstand another year of negative with the US, especially following the hike tariffs or restrict purchases of US export growth, but we are less certain recent shift in US political rhetoric goods and services. If tariffs are hiked about its resilience against a rout in the and the appointment of China hawks by 45 per cent, China may impose the global commodity market,” he said. Peter Navarro, Wilbur Ross and Robert same tariff on imports from the US.” Other uncertainties include whether Lighthizer to the newly created National This could not bode well for Sin- Premier Li Keqiang will stay on for a Trade Council – a sign of more aggressive gapore, which is highly sensitive to second five-year term after the 19th trade policy and negotiations to come. trade volumes and regional growth, National Congress, at which most of Given the interconnectedness of particularly that of China’s. the Politburo Standing Committee is trade in Asia, any potential trade “A suppressed global trade environ- expected to retire. barriers on China – which accounts ment will continue to put pressure on Mr Li, who plays a key role in economic for more than one-third of the overall Singapore’s trade services and port-relat- policymaking, had been expected to US trade deficit – will likely affect the ed activities,” HSBC economist Joseph remain paired with President Xi Jinping region, economists warn. Incalcaterra said. until 2022. This is because many production But some economists noted that But there is now speculation that he networks in Asia – which accounts for China has continued to show an may be replaced, which would throw 67 per cent of the US goods trade deficit ability to withstand domestic and into question the free market reforms – use China as the final assembly point global concussions amid several he has championed such as overhauling before exporting to the US. major shocks last year, including an state-owned companies, and signal that Morgan Stanley Asia economist unexpected currency devaluation and the more centralised, approach favoured Chetan Ahya said the US runs a trade sharp corrections in its stock markets. by Mr Xi will prevail. deficit against nine of 12 Asian markets China defied bears last year with Whether Mr Li stays or goes should it covers, except for Singapore, Australia three straight quarters of 6.7 per provide a clear insight into China’s and Hong Kong. cent growth, owing in part to robust economic future. Within the group, the US runs the infrastructure investment and a rebound largest trade deficit with China at in the property market. [email protected]
19 On Our Radar
Marissa Lee Business Journalist, The Straits Times Oil: Tough times not over despite rising oil prices
Experts expect Opec will reassess the situation in the Settlements, said in a speech that oil second quarter of this year, which could and gas companies’ bonds outstanding oil markets to lead to fresh price volatility if the quota jumped from US$455 billion in 2006 rebalance this year, is not sustained, the institute added. to US$1.4 trillion in 2014. He added: “Emerging market oil but are increasingly CHALLENGES TO firms were particularly active in issuing cautious about the COME bonds through offshore subsidiaries.” limited upside Now that US interest rates are on Then there is the concern that the a rising path, pulling the greenback power of the oil cartel to move prices upwards, the heady levels of US-dollar is nowhere as strong as it was back in debt is expected to put pressure on fter crashing spectacularly the 1970s. highly-leveraged companies. in June 2014, oil prices The resilience of American shale Mr Caruana said: “We should not have generally drifted producers has taken many by surprise, be surprised if the feedback loops set upwards over the last now and then sparking another bad pun in motion by the deleveraging and year, stoking hopes of a about a “crude” awakening. divergent conditions lead to financial Areturn to stability. The fact is that new technologies, market turbulence. The temptation may Still, benchmark Brent crude is such as horizontal drilling, have greatly be to try to keep the financial booms tipped to stick below US$60 (S$85.15) reduced production costs. going or to give them a new lease of a barrel this year, so the bad times may life, but this will just be a palliative not be over yet for Asia’s offshore and Brent crude oil prices 2014 – 2017 unless the stock of debt is adjusted and marine firms. US$ per barrel vulnerabilities are reduced.” This sector has arguably suffered the 120 In Singapore, the full force of the most from the oil price slump, and, even credit crunch finally hit last year, and after the rounds of cost-cutting and lay- 100 the Republic has had to reckon with offs, massive excess capacity of offshore 80 massive bond defaults from three oil support vessels (OSVs) and rigs will and gas firms (one of them Malaysian), continue to strain the sector this year. 60 totalling $685 million. Experts expect oil markets to So even with oil prices stabilising, rebalance this year, but have grown 40 the worry is that an uptick in oilfield increasingly cautious about the limited activity may not come fast enough for upside, given structural factors. 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 players with weak cash flows and bonds When members of the Organisation due to mature soon. of Petroleum Exporting Countries Source: BLOOMBERG STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS While owners of OSVs and rigs could (Opec) and other nations, including see earnings rise to breakeven levels Russia, agreed to cut their daily output According to the Energy Information from the uptick in oilfield activity as from Jan 1, oil prices shot up. Administration, United States’ crude prices stabilise, companies building rigs But now that the novelty of the first oil production probably bottomed out will remain vulnerable as new orders Opec supply cut in eight years has worn last year, and will increase this year and will not come in as quickly, analysts off, it seems clear that the cartel’s role next – not quite the ideal result of the have said. will keep a floor on oil prices, rather two-year oil price war. And even if higher oil prices bump than provide a lift. Swing producers are not the only up the number of exploration and The most obvious risk is that these force to be reckoned with. Another production projects that become oil-producing nations may cheat on issue is global inventory levels, which economically viable and create business production quotas, as they have done experts fear are still too high to sustain for fleet owners, overcapacity in the before. an oil price recovery. sub-sector means competition will be “This is especially the case in Iraq, In Asia, as it is with the rest of the fierce. Service prices, which have fallen where the dire security and fiscal world, the legacy of peak oil is inter- by more than 50 per cent from the peak, situation makes a large cut (5 per cent) twined with debt. will not get much of a lift. somewhat suspicious,” said the Institute High oil prices, low interest rates of International Finance. and cheap borrowing fuelled the oil The oversupply of rigs also means On top of that, Libya and Nigeria production boom, or bubble, depending that builders must wait longer for an are exempt from the cuts as production on how you look at it. earnings recovery. in both countries is recovering from Last year, Mr Jaime Caruana, general security-related issues. manager of the Bank for International [email protected]
20 On Our Radar
Jacqueline Woo Business Journalist, The Straits Times Debt: Worries over debt defaults in Asia linger
Hanjin Shipping, sought bankruptcy default swaps and that suggests that A marked rise in protection last year as it failed to the government could allow certain defaults that showed tackle its 5.6 million-won debt amid companies just to fail. It’s a fair bet the industry downturn. to say we’ll see a sustained level of up last year will The defaults in Singapore could widen distress in the bond market throughout likely continue, with to include property developers, added Asia (this year).” regional non-bank KPMG in the report, after home prices A Moody’s Investors Service report fell the most in more than seven years last month flagged the risks of high borrowers facing in the quarter ended Sept 30 last year. debt levels and global financial linkages $109 billion worth Bloomberg data showed that facing Asia-Pacific nations, including property firms in the Asia-Pacific region Singapore. of bonds maturing face US$8.7 billion of bonds due this This comes amid a marked fall in this year. year, while energy-related companies, financial asset prices in the Asia-Pacific including those in oil services, must since the US presidential election last repay US$12 billion. November. In its report on “sovereign risk” – oncerns over debt defaults Regional debt worries a reference to the credit standing of in Singapore and across Non-bank borrowers from Asia-Paci c sovereign economies – Moody’s noted the region will keep minds face rising dollar-bond repayments that regional currencies have since focused this year, given the US$ billion depreciated against the US dollar, while uncertain global economy. 120 equity prices have fallen and portfolio CThe tone was set last year with a flows have reversed. 100 marked rise in defaults, led in part by “If they last more than a few weeks, cash-strapped companies in the troubled 80 capital outflows or lower inflows will oil and gas sector. 60 correspond to a tightening in domestic The problem may be far from over, financing conditions for many Asian with regional non-bank borrowers facing 40 countries,” the credit ratings agency US$76.4 billion (S$109 billion) worth 20 said. “For some, (it) could exacerbate of bonds maturing this year, 24 per cent difficulties in meeting their current 0 higher than last year, Bloomberg data 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 account and external debt payment showed. obligations.” Source: BLOOMBERG STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS Market observers believe commodi- Moody’s pointed out that direct ties-related defaults in Singapore could vulnerability to capital outflows is be a sign of things to come. Despite a CHOPPY WATERS limited in the Asia-Pacific, though with modest rebound in resource prices in AHEAD a few exceptions. recent weeks, restructuring specialists, “In most of the region, foreign such as KPMG and Hogan Lovells Lee Law firm DLA Piper agreed there exchange reserves generally provide & Lee, expect to see more Asia-Pacific could be choppy waters ahead, amid coverage for external debt repayments, commodities and shipping companies rising interest rates in the United current account deficits are narrow and being pushed into delinquency, said a States as well as President Donald government liquidity positions are Bloomberg report. Trump’s possible overhaul of trade robust,” it said. “Singapore is a bellwether for the with China. Economies in the region that face larger Asean and Asian region,” Mr “Across Asia, we could see more external liquidity challenges include Andy Ferris, Singapore-based partner corporates getting into difficulty with Mongolia, Pakistan and, to a lesser at Hogan Lovells Lee & Lee, told their bank or bond debt,” Mr Mark extent, the Maldives, Papua New Guinea Bloomberg. “Some of the fundamental Fairbairn, DLA Piper’s Hong Kong- and Sri Lanka. problems those industries face won’t based head of restructuring and special “Nonetheless, while the direct impact go away. Many of the companies in the situations for Asia, told Bloomberg. of tighter global financial conditions may commodities sector have high levels of In China, top policymakers said be limited, sustained capital outflows or debt and depressed revenues.” in the middle of last month that markedly lower inflows pose indirect The top four South Korean controlling financial risk to avoid asset challenges for economies with already shipbuilders, for instance, have 2.3 bubbles will be a priority this year. At high leverage,” added Moody’s. trillion won (S$2.8 billion) in notes least 28 onshore bonds defaulted last This is particularly so if the domestic maturing this year, and some of them year, compared with just seven in the authorities are constrained in their may have trouble paying debts without year before. ability to use fiscal and monetary tools help from the government or group firms, “I definitely think we will see to offset the tightening impact of global according to HMC Investment Securities further distress out of China,” said financial conditions. and NH Investment & Securities. Hogan Lovells’ Mr Ferris. “We have South Korea’s biggest shipping line, seen a move to allow trading of credit [email protected]
21 Perspective American greatness requires
such challenges in perspective. Mr Trump’s a receptive world vow to stop the “American carnage” was ringing in its rhetorical power, but is it backed by facts? Similarly, his prescription resident Donald Trump’s first. Leaders of other nations have a for an American recovery – based on inaugural address ranked highly similarly nationalist duty to their own the promise to “bring back” American on consistency. It bore the people. Friends of America will empathise, jobs, borders, wealth and dreams – has Puncompromising mark of the therefore, with President Trump’s pain undertones of protectionism that worry insurgent sentiments that had pushed Mr over mothers and children trapped in many, both in the United States and abroad. Trump from the ideological periphery of His withdrawal of America from the the Republican Party – to say nothing of Mr Trump’s vow to stop the Trans-Pacific Partnership and his vow the left-liberal consensus represented by “American carnage” was to confront China suggest an abrasive the Democratic Party – to the centre of ringing in its rhetorical power, unilateralism that could erode America’s political power. but is it backed by facts? global space. His dramatic desire to wall His swearing-in on Jan 20 followed Similarly, his prescription for off the influx of job-seekers from Mexico time-honoured American presidential an American recovery – based adds to the problematic astringency of his traditions. However, his address made on the promise to “bring proposed policies, which take a dim view it clear that he sees himself as a radical back” American jobs, borders, of international environmental protocols wrecker of polite political conventions, wealth and dreams – has as well. However, his intention to improve and even partisan codes of conduct, in undertones of protectionism ties with Russia and crush the terrorist the mission to restore American greatness. that worry many, both in the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and In that vein, he declared: “We, assembled United States and abroad. Syria is a welcome sign of American here today, are issuing a new decree to be activism. It should set at rest fears that heard in every city, and in every foreign poverty in the country’s inner cities, and Mr Trump’s America will be isolationist. capital and in every hall of power.” He over the sight of “rusted-out factories Now that he is in power, Mr Trump will also said: “From this day forward, a new scattered like tombstones”. As crime and need to uphold the economic and strategic vision will govern our land, from this day gangs flourish in that hellish environment, symbiosis which binds his country to other forward, it’s going to be only ‘America it is natural for any American president to nations. American greatness requires a first! America first!’” wonder about the usefulness of being the receptive world. By contrast, a myopic That promise is an uncontroversial most powerful man on earth if he cannot America First policy that jeopardises the one because every American president eradicate the menace within. well-being of other countries could invite owes it to his people to put America However, it is necessary to keep even unpleasant countervailing responses.
France which, along with Germany, was one of the initiators of the contemporary Hard Brexit now European project and remains one of its two anchors today. A hard Brexit, which nevertheless allowed Britain to retain substantial benefits of European a reality integration outside the EU framework, would embolden Eurosceptic forces he hard Brexit that many Britons for separation is triggered, and British in France and elsewhere. What is more had hoped for, and others had parliamentarians must approve any divorce important than Brexit will be the EU’s feared, has materialised in deal. These factors make for vigorous and, ability to renew itself into a credible British Prime Minister Theresa in fact, acrimonious political debate in institution, and the only one that can T guarantee the economic and cultural May’s declaration that her country will Britain in the lead-up to Brexit. However, not be a part of the European Union’s Mrs May has laid down the parameters integrity of Europe. (EU) single market when it leaves the EU. within which she visualises the break to As for Britain, leaving the EU will not The finality of that separation is implicit take place. Its clarity is welcome, if only deprive it of its indigenous strengths. These in the confirmation by Mrs May that her because it will concentrate the minds of range from its free market instincts and its government’s top priority is to restore military prowess, to the jealously guarded control of immigration to Britain from For the EU, the challenge autonomy of its legal institutions and the Europe, and to remove the powers of the would be to prevent the global standing of its best universities. No European Court of Justice over British onset of Britain’s eventual matter how it refashions its relations with citizens. As access to the single market is departure from precipitating the rump EU, Britain can revitalise its conditional on these two key elements, other breakaways historical links with the Commonwealth. Mrs May’s strategy of exit from the EU is It might even be the case that a retreat a definitive one. Indeed, pre-empting the supporters and opponents alike on how from Europe would bring the rest of the possibility of the EU’s remaining members to make the most of a reality that will be world into sharper diplomatic focus in imposing punitive conditions on Britain there to stay, for both Britain and the EU. Britain. The special relationship with the for its residual links with the union, she For the EU, the challenge would be to United States, too, would sustain British made it clear that no deal would be better prevent the onset of Britain’s eventual interests outside the unifying, but also than a bad deal for London. departure from precipitating other limiting, confines of European-American There is a two-year timeframe for breakaways. Centrifugal forces exist in relations. International space exists for exit negotiations once the mechanism many European countries. They include British exceptionalism to thrive.
22 Regional Watch
Regional authorities are South-east Asian ports undertaking projects to increase their cargo on an expansion spree handling capacity
Indonesia aims for more sea cargo traffic Antonius Tonny Budiono said the country, why can’t we handle them?” government and units of state-owned he told The Jakarta Post. port operator Pelabuhan Indonesia Singapore, widely known as the (Pelindo) will be meeting to discuss world’s busiest transshipment hub, plans to create an “integrated chain accounts for almost a seventh of port”. total global container transshipment. Francis Chan This involves consolidating the Figures from the Maritime and Port Indonesia Bureau Chief export of cargo from ports such as Authority showed that Singapore’s Bitung, in North Sulawesi, and Sorong, annual container throughput held ndonesia plans to beef up its port in West Papua, at Tanjung Priok, which steady last year at 30.9 million TEUs, or services by consolidating cargo now handles about half of the country’s 20-ft equivalent units. By comparison, traffic from various facilities across export shipments. container traffic at Tanjung Priok over Ithe country at Tanjung Priok in Mr Antonius, who is director-general the same period was 5.4 million TEUs, North Jakarta, its largest and most of sea transportation, said this will up from 5.2 million TEUs in 2015. advanced seaport. improve efficiency and make Tanjung President Joko Widodo has made The move to centralise transshipment Priok more attractive for shipping improving Indonesia’s maritime activities is aimed at taking over a slice companies. infrastructure a key priority since he of the market currently dominated by “The transshipment sector has long was elected in 2014. Singapore, The Jakarta Post reported. been dominated by Singapore (but) Indonesia, however, has also suffered Transportation Ministry official if the commodities originate in our setbacks in the sector.
Port Klang plans giant facility separately does not make sense. That is just bringing about excess capacity,” The RM200 billion (S$64 billion) said Mr G. Durairaj, managing director project mooted by the PKA will be built of maritime and logistics consultancy on Pulau Carey, which, at 13,000ha, is PortsWorld. about 25 times the size of Singapore’s A World Bank report commissioned Sentosa Island. by the government in 2015 said a new PKA chairman Kong Cho Ha said port on Malaysia’s west coast is not Trinna Leong a new port is necessary to compete in necessary, as existing facilities have yet Malaysia Correspondent the industry and also to vie for a bigger to reach capacity, according to sources. share of the container cargo trade from The movers behind the Pulau Carey alaysia’s Port Klang Singapore, The Star reported. project are past and present ranking Authority (PKA) wants Officials have also said that Port members of the Malaysian Chinese to build a giant port on Klang, the largest in Malaysia, is Association (MCA), which is part of the Man island next to the reaching its maximum capacity. Umno-led Barisan Nasional coalition. country’s largest port, clashing with Some analysts question the need for Tan Sri Kong is an MCA member and plans for two big ports coming up in a new port, especially one intended to former transport minister. The Chinese- nearby Malacca, about a two-hour compete with Singapore. based party owns a majority stake in drive away. “Creating another port that runs The Star. Thailand’s Laem Chabang port to be ‘Rotterdam Port of Asean’ Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) the London port. scheme covering three eastern provinces hailand is keen to develop “Laem Chabang Phase 3 will be that are already home to the automobile its Laem Chabang Port as a an important project and will (be and petrochemical industries. regional gateway for Asean and developed) to become ‘the Rotterdam The government wants to leverage Ta complement to Singapore, of Asean’ to help distribute goods from the EEC’s central location in Asean to which acts as an international gateway China, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar to make it a regional hub for transportation to the region. the rest of the world,” said Vice-Minister and logistics, aviation, industries and In this, it will be similar to the Port of in the Prime Ministers’s Office. tourism. Rotterdam, which serves as a regional The phase 3 expansion of the Laem shipping traffic point and complements Chabang port is part of the government’s - The Nation/Asia News Network
23 Regional Watch
RECLAMATION FILLING WORKS Engineering feats at Pasir Panjang • Sea sand is used as main fill • Alternative materials include marine clay dredged from the sand-key • Illustration below shows where the dredged and material. Alternative fill trench and the deepening of fairways and basins, excavated earth excavated materials are placed to maximise the use B CAISSON SEA WALL PREPARATION materials are used to reduce from land-based construction projects — such as road and rail of alternative fill materials. ingapore, the world’s busiest tranship- For the Pasir Panjang expansion, D the amount of sand required for projects and building projects — and cement-mixed soil. ment hub, with connections to 600 alternative landfill material, such as landfill by 45 per cent. excavated earth from land construction ports in more than 120 countries, is Sand/good earth not taking good fortune for granted. projects, was used instead of sand for Caisson S reclaiming some 198ha of land. storage FOUNDATION The Maritime and Port Authority of FOR THE Corals at the nearby Labrador Nature Singapore is going full steam ahead with SOIL A CAISSON Caisson IMPROVEMENT plans to expand the Republic’s container- Reserve were also relocated in 2006. SEA WALL In addition, caissons – large concrete WORKS C handling capacity, starting with the expansion Placement blocks – were used to build the sea wall of caissons of the Pasir Panjang Terminal in a $3.5 billion along the and wharf structure. foundation project that will be completed this year. When the Pasir Panjang expansion is to form Pasir Panjang Terminal (PPT) Phases 3 completed next year, it will help increase D a sea wall and 4 are being built in a way that increases RECLAMATION Singapore’s overall container-handling FILLING WORKS SEA efficiency and productivity while reducing capacity to 50 million twenty-foot equivalent environmental impact – making it a model units per year. Sea wall for the upcoming Tuas Terminal, which will be fully ready from 2027. Audrey Tan Dredged clay material LAYING THE FOUNDATION FOR THE CAISSON SEAWALL SAND-KEY TRENCH Dredging of soft material Sand infilling Vibro compaction Laying of rock Compaction of 1 Soft clay material is dredged 2 The trench is 3 Sand layer is consolidated 4 mattress 5 mattress SEA from the seabed to form a infilled with sand. by inserting a vibrating Rocks are laid. The rock layer is Rock mattress Dredged clay and Geo bund made from A sand-key trench until the hard probe into the ground. compacted using a excavated earth cement mixed soil (foundation) stratum is reached. pounder. HARD STRATUM
ROCK LAYER SAND LAYER By the numbers Taking care of the environment
HARD STRATUM SAND-KEY TRENCH • 198ha of land was reclaimed (approximately Every environmental impact from the construction activities, such as dredging and 280 football fields). filling works, is addressed. CAISSON SEA WALL PREPARATION AND PLACEMENT • Additional 15 deepwater container berths with Online A floating Transplantation of live an annual handling capacity of about 15 million • Reclamation work for PPT Base slab of Caisson wall is cast Completed caisson Each caisson is towed out to monitoring silt corals to Labrador Nature 3 and 4 was designed 1 caisson is cast 2 using mechanised 3 is cured for seven 4 sea ready for installation twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). of noise barricade Reserve was completed based on the use of system days On average, one caisson was • Overall container-handling capacity increased levels to was successfully, with an 80 B concrete box caissons to produced every nine days per to 50 million TEUs in Singapore. per cent survival rate. meet installed. form a sea wall. fabrication line. • The caisson sea wall • The Government saved about $470 million regulatory Quarterly monitoring of serves to retain the fill because less sand was used. limits. coral reefs. materials forming the land and to function as the quay for the container vessels Labrador Nature Reserve when the berths are put Pasir Keppel Distripark into operation. Panjang Keppel • A fabrication yard Terminal Terminal (right) was set up Tanjong Pagar on land to allow CAISSON FABRICATION YARD ON LAND SEA round-the-clock Pasir Panjang Terminal concreting work. Total caissons: 150 Size: 21m to 32m Weight: 8,800 tonnes to 12,000 tonnes Automobile Brani Terminal Sentosa Terminal
SOIL IMPROVEMENT WORKS Satellite image Satellite image Phases 3 and 4 expansion Prefabricated Vertical Sand surcharging Vibro compaction Dynamic Surface taken in 2007 taken last year 1 Drains (PVDs) 2 Reclaimed land is 3 Ground is consolidated 4 compaction 5 compaction PVDs are pushed into the surcharged using sand using a long vibrating Ground is compacted Ground surface c ground down to a maximum built up to a height of probe inserted using a pounder. compacted by depth of 55m. Some 950,000 18m. into the ground. rollers. What the high-tech container terminals will look like PVDs measuring a total Quay cranes offer further These automated Automated Guided Vehicles length of about 24,000km • Technologies such as automated rail-mounted reach and higher lifting rail-mounted gantry (AGVs) are being tested by PSA in were installed. gantry cranes will be used for the first time in the heights in the moving cranes will facilitate a Living Lab environment to new expansion. These yard cranes are operated of containers. the unmanned handling transport containers between remotely from a control centre and containers are of containers. the quay and container yard stacked with the help of computers, sensors and before scaling up AGV operations cameras, thereby saving manpower and increasing at the future Tuas Terminal. productivity. • The terminal can handle mega container vessels of 18,000 TEUs or more, with quay cranes that can reach across 24 rows of containers. • Remote-controlled bridge cranes allow each Quayside Landside Trucks operator to handle up to six cranes. Source: MARITIME AND PORT AUTHORITY OF SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS 24 Regional Watch
RECLAMATION FILLING WORKS • Sea sand is used as main fill • Alternative materials include marine clay dredged from the sand-key • Illustration below shows where the dredged and material. Alternative fill trench and the deepening of fairways and basins, excavated earth excavated materials are placed to maximise the use B CAISSON SEA WALL PREPARATION materials are used to reduce from land-based construction projects — such as road and rail of alternative fill materials. D the amount of sand required for projects and building projects — and cement-mixed soil. landfill by 45 per cent.
Caisson Sand/good earth storage FOUNDATION FOR THE SOIL A CAISSON Caisson IMPROVEMENT SEA WALL WORKS C Placement of caissons along the foundation to form D a sea wall RECLAMATION FILLING WORKS SEA Sea wall
Dredged clay material LAYING THE FOUNDATION FOR THE CAISSON SEAWALL SAND-KEY TRENCH Dredging of soft material Sand infilling Vibro compaction Laying of rock Compaction of 1 Soft clay material is dredged 2 The trench is 3 Sand layer is consolidated 4 mattress 5 mattress SEA from the seabed to form a infilled with sand. by inserting a vibrating Rocks are laid. The rock layer is Rock mattress Dredged clay and Geo bund made from A sand-key trench until the hard probe into the ground. compacted using a excavated earth cement mixed soil (foundation) stratum is reached. pounder. HARD STRATUM
ROCK LAYER SAND LAYER By the numbers Taking care of the environment
HARD STRATUM SAND-KEY TRENCH • 198ha of land was reclaimed (approximately Every environmental impact from the construction activities, such as dredging and 280 football fields). filling works, is addressed. CAISSON SEA WALL PREPARATION AND PLACEMENT • Additional 15 deepwater container berths with Online A floating Transplantation of live an annual handling capacity of about 15 million • Reclamation work for PPT Base slab of Caisson wall is cast Completed caisson Each caisson is towed out to monitoring silt corals to Labrador Nature 3 and 4 was designed 1 caisson is cast 2 using mechanised 3 is cured for seven 4 sea ready for installation twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). of noise barricade Reserve was completed based on the use of system days On average, one caisson was • Overall container-handling capacity increased levels to was successfully, with an 80 B concrete box caissons to produced every nine days per to 50 million TEUs in Singapore. per cent survival rate. meet installed. form a sea wall. fabrication line. • The caisson sea wall • The Government saved about $470 million regulatory Quarterly monitoring of serves to retain the fill because less sand was used. limits. coral reefs. materials forming the land and to function as the quay for the container vessels Labrador Nature Reserve when the berths are put Pasir Keppel Distripark into operation. Panjang Keppel • A fabrication yard Terminal Terminal (right) was set up Tanjong Pagar on land to allow CAISSON FABRICATION YARD ON LAND SEA round-the-clock Pasir Panjang Terminal concreting work. Total caissons: 150 Size: 21m to 32m Weight: 8,800 tonnes to 12,000 tonnes Automobile Brani Terminal Sentosa Terminal
SOIL IMPROVEMENT WORKS Satellite image Satellite image Phases 3 and 4 expansion Prefabricated Vertical Sand surcharging Vibro compaction Dynamic Surface taken in 2007 taken last year 1 Drains (PVDs) 2 Reclaimed land is 3 Ground is consolidated 4 compaction 5 compaction PVDs are pushed into the surcharged using sand using a long vibrating Ground is compacted Ground surface c ground down to a maximum built up to a height of probe inserted using a pounder. compacted by depth of 55m. Some 950,000 18m. into the ground. rollers. What the high-tech container terminals will look like PVDs measuring a total Quay cranes offer further These automated Automated Guided Vehicles length of about 24,000km • Technologies such as automated rail-mounted reach and higher lifting rail-mounted gantry (AGVs) are being tested by PSA in were installed. gantry cranes will be used for the first time in the heights in the moving cranes will facilitate a Living Lab environment to new expansion. These yard cranes are operated of containers. the unmanned handling transport containers between remotely from a control centre and containers are of containers. the quay and container yard stacked with the help of computers, sensors and before scaling up AGV operations cameras, thereby saving manpower and increasing at the future Tuas Terminal. productivity. • The terminal can handle mega container vessels of 18,000 TEUs or more, with quay cranes that can reach across 24 rows of containers. • Remote-controlled bridge cranes allow each Quayside Landside Trucks operator to handle up to six cranes. Source: MARITIME AND PORT AUTHORITY OF SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS 25 Regional Watch
Raul Dancel Philippines Correspondent in Manila What Duterte’s pivot to China means for Filipinos
Older Chinese- Filipinos hope for trade uptick, but most Filipinos unlikely to be moved by his shift
t the centuries-old Chinese enclave of Binondo in the heart of Manila, China is a distant, bygone presence. Carved out of the APhilippine capital by the Spaniards in 1594, the 66ha district is the oldest and largest Chinese quarter in the world. It was where millions of Chinese fleeing the communists in the 1930s till the 1970s docked. Some settled there, opening small businesses that relied on their connections to the mainland. But most spread out across the Philippines. Today, with a population of about 15,000, Binondo is just another attraction that Filipinos flock to during Chinese New Year, a superficial representation of Chinese influence in Binondo district in Manila is the oldest and largest Chinese quarter in the world. Today, with the country. a population of about 15,000, the district is just another attraction that Filipinos flock to during It is an influence most keenly felt Chinese New Year. The Chinese influence is most keenly felt in commerce, and less so in politics, in commerce, and less so in politics, as politicians tend to downplay their Chinese lineage. PHOTO: STFILE as politicians tend to downplay their Chinese lineage. everything American. They do not share GENERATION GAP President Rodrigo Duterte’s recent Mr Duterte’s love for China. efforts to shift the Philippines away “The common sentiment among It is the older ones, driven by from the US and towards China – an my peers is: why is he so tactless, so nostalgia and the promise of big money, old adversary, not least because of the insensitive in his speeches, especially who are more excited. two countries’ row over the South China towards the US?” said Mr Edward Go, a Mr Wilson Lee-Flores, an ethnic Chi- Sea – is unlikely to change that. marketing executive whose grandfather nese columnist with deep connections For one thing, the timeframe is too briefly lived in Binondo after arriving to the most affluent Chinese families in short, with President Duterte limited from China’s Fujian province after the Philippines, said Chinese-Filipino to just one six-year term in office. For World War II. tycoons like Mr Henry Sy see in the another, the scale of economic exchange “We’re not against China nor are new rapprochement a rare chance to – with US$24 billion (S$34 billion) in we pro-US, but we believe what makes wet their beaks at a pool that other investments pledges, US$680 million sound business sense is that you don’t billionaires in the region have already in annual trade, and the promise of a limit yourself to China. We need to look grown fat from. million Chinese tourists annually – is at other countries too,” added Mr Go, 32. “We have been the odd man out. too small. Even the 30 million Chinese- Younger Chinese-Filipinos, noted We’ve been so fixated with politics Filipinos, roughly a third of the country’s Professor Henry Chan, an adjunct that we have been out of the loop,” population, are unlikely to be moved research fellow at the National said Mr Flores. “They see the pivot as by Mr Duterte’s shift. That’s because University of Singapore’s East Asia purely business because they are not many of them, while retaining their Institute, are “very localised and politicians,” he said of the richer, older Chinese surnames, have, like most Philippine-centric. They are not keen Chinese in the Philippines. Filipinos, grown up on a steady diet of on international issues”. Mr Sy’s SM Group retail conglomerate
26 Regional Watch
ebbed in later years, as criminals, many MOVE A Philippine – China of them with ties to the police, switched to the narcotics trade. GAME-CHANGER ties But with Mr Duterte’s controversial Then there are the rest of the Filipinos. US$17.65 billion: Total bilateral anti-crime drive picking off thousands Half the total population of more than • of drug dealers and addicts, kidnappers trade in 2015 100 million still distrust China, and nine are again preying on Binondo’s wealthy in 10 Filipinos love the US more than • US$6.18 billion: Philippine Chinese traders. most Americans do, according to surveys exports to China in 2015 Ms Teresita Ang-See, founder of in 2014 and last year by pollsters Pew • US$11.47 billion: Philippine the anti-crime Movement for the Research and Social Weather Stations, imports from China in 2015 Restoration of Peace and Order, said respectively. six have already been abducted since Still, Mr Duterte calculates he has US$1.27 billion: Development • March last year. everything to win by wooing Beijing, assistance to the Philippines from Despite that, the ethnic Chinese and little to lose by giving Washington China between 2002 and 2013 community remains firmly Filipino. the cold shoulder. • US$1.45 billion: Chinese They do not see themselves as a motley Growth in the Philippines is under- investments in the Philippines group of outsiders manning an outpost pinned by consumer spending, which in 2015 for China, but as a unique ethnic is, in turn, fuelled by billions of dollars community that is a blend of where they worth of remittances from more than • US$13.5 billion: Value of came from and where they are now, said 10 million Filipinos abroad, including agreements signed during Ms Ang-See. 3.4 million in the US alone, as well as Philippine President Rodrigo That is why they insist on being called a burgeoning call centre industry de- Duterte’s trip to China in “tsinoys”, a portmanteau of colloquial pendent on American money. Neither October last year references to Chinese and Filipino, to pillar is likely to buckle because of Mr underscore their Philippine heritage, Duterte’s cosying up to China. Source: RAPPLER.COM, REUTERS rather than the derogatory “intsik”, Hopes are high that Mr Duterte can a slur that came out of a Hokkien hit it off with US President Donald reference to “uncle”. has six shopping malls in China. But the Trump, who is just as cocky and Meanwhile, 28 million of the ethnic investments pale in comparison to those undiplomatic. Chinese population are more accurately of Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok, Prof Chan of NUS said Mr Duterte’s described as of mixed heritage – mainly which include those in the Shangri-La pivot to China, while unlikely to turn hotels, the China World Trade Centre, Chinese but also of Filipino, American, the Philippines red, is a “game changer”. as well as cooking oil brands that have Spanish and other European ancestry “The key to whether it can last gained a 50 per cent share of the market. – who have been so thoroughly beyond Duterte’s term or if it may be “Everyone in South-east Asia is all assimilated that they are Chinese only reversed really depends on whether the over China, except us,” said Mr Flores. in name. They are Catholic, celebrate country and the people can feel the “It’s about time we become a normal the New Year on Jan 1, do not observe goodies from the policy shift,” he said. Asian country like Thailand, Indonesia Chinese festivals like the one for the Even if pressed to take sides, the and Malaysia,” he added. Hungry Ghost month, and cannot speak choice will be easy for Chinese-Filipinos, Business opportunities aside, older Hokkien or Mandarin. said Manila Councillor Bernie Ang. Chinese-Filipinos – many of whom came From this crop have come political “Even China says that wherever you to the Philippines with nothing but the giants such as Mr Duterte, whose grand- were born and grew up in, that place is shirt on their back – also genuinely feel mother came from Fujian; democracy your country. We are considered Filipinos, China can help the Philippines on infra- icon Corazon Aquino; national hero Jose so we will fight for the Philippines,” he said. structure development, said Prof Chan. Rizal; and Manila’s former archbishop Mr Sy didn’t even have slippers and kingmaker Jaime Cardinal Sin. [email protected] when he arrived in Manila from Fujian. Through sheer tenacity, cunning and an unbending determination never to be poor again, he turned his tiny shoes and slippers store in Binondo into a US$14 billion conglomerate. Of the 30 million-strong ethnic Chinese community, about two million are “pure” Chinese-born in China, like Mr Sy, or born in the Philippines to ethnic Chinese parents. They are the ones with the deepest emotional connections to the mainland, and who have the most fervent hopes YOU NEED TO KNOW ASIA We do. riding on Mr Duterte’s “pivot” to China. They are also among the nation’s wealthiest, running companies that account for 60 per cent of the economy. But their wealth and their tendency to keep a low profile also made them a Get your complimentary 2-WEEK full digital access to The Straits Times target for criminals. From 1994 to 1996, ONLINE / SMARTPHONE / TABLET about 650 Chinese were kidnapped; 31 were killed and about US$11 million Simply go to readsph.sg/STAR paid in ransom. 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Wong Siew Ying Senior Correspondent
PHOTOS: IE SINGAPORE, PJ DEVELOPMENT, ISTOCKPHOTO Foreigners eye more property investments in Singapore City-state seen as expenditure at $8.85 billion, accounting Foreign investors have also been for 41.7 per cent of total property active in the residential sector, notably safer investment spending last year. That was up by 62 Chinese developer Qingjian Realty’s destination in per cent from foreign investment sales $638 million purchase of Shunfu Ville of about $5.46 billion the year before, via a collective sale in May. It also won turbulent world CBRE told The Straits Times. the tender for a mixed development site It was also markedly higher than the in Bukit Batok West for $301 million in foreign investment volume of $4.67 the same month. ega office deals helped billion in 2014. Those deals led to Qatar, Malaysia drive foreign investment The office sector drew the most and China being the top three sources in local real estate to its interest – 76.5 per cent or about $6.77 of foreign investment in real estate here highest level since 2007. billion of the foreign capital spent so last year. About $8.85 billion far last year, noted CBRE. Consultancy JLL noted that slower Mfrom overseas has been pumped into “Over the next three, four years, economic growth and efforts to cool the Singapore property last year – the best there’s... very little new office space property market have weighed on the result since the $15.27 billion outlay in being completed... The more forward- real estate sector in recent years. 2007, before the global financial crisis looking investors are looking at that “During this period, other major hit. period of little supply, which will then markets across Asia have experienced a Analysts say the pace of foreign result in rental growth,” said Mr Jeremy strong market upturn, making Singapore investment could well carry over Lake, executive director for investment an increasingly attractive investment into this year, depending on how the properties at CBRE Singapore. proposition on a relative basis,” said Mr economy fares. Real estate consultancy Edmund Tie Greg Hyland, head of capital markets, The influx of foreign funds is due & Company said investors typically Singapore at JLL. partly to the view of Singapore as a look towards 2020, when the market Mr Hyland said foreign investment safer investment destination in a world is projected to pick up. volume this year could keep pace with roiled by uncertainties. A huge chunk of foreign investment this year’s activity, but “the recent “It could be due to global market went into the Asia Square Tower run-up in long-term interest rates volatility as a result of Brexit and the One deal in June, when the Qatar will see investors cautiously pricing oil and gas sector. Foreign investors see Investment Authority stumped up opportunities”. Singapore as a defensive play where nearly $3.4 billion for the trophy asset The market this year could get a investment is fairly protected due to in Marina Bay. boost from Jurong Point mall which is the strength of the Singdollar,” said Malaysian developer IOI Properties on the market, and Asia Square Tower Ms Christine Li, research director at Group’s unit, Wealthy Link, smashed Two – for which its owner BlackRock Cushman & Wakefield. public land sales tender records with is said to be sussing out interest from The data from property consultancy its $2.57 billion bid last month for a potential buyers. CBRE, which records investment deals white site in Central Boulevard, also over $10 million in value, shows foreign in Marina Bay. [email protected]
28 Spotlight
Jonathan Pearlman For The Straits Times Telecom tycoon a reclusive man with grand ambitions
TPG founder set to venture into Singapore with a record of providing low-cost, reliable service
e is one of Australia’s wealthiest people, but it was not until 2015 that the public finally saw a clear photograph of Hthe famously reclusive Malaysia-born communications tycoon David Teoh. Described as the nation’s most Mr Teoh started off by selling computer hardware secretive billionaire, Mr Teoh is founder in Sydney in 1986, shortly after he emigrated from and chairman of TPG Telecom, a A$6 Malaysia. TPG gradually merged with or bought a range of Internet, phone and infrastructure firms. billion (S$6.4 billion) Internet and PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: THE STAR / ASIA NEWS mobile-phone service provider. NETWORK When his picture was captured in September 2015 by a photographer who “Price is always his (Mr Teoh’s) effective way to compete and is able to waited outside his house for three days, biggest thing. It’s not customer service be price-competitive,” he said. the image made the front page of the or a better network – it has to be price.” According to a survey of mobile Australian Financial Review. Most analysts say that Mr Teoh’s phone users in 2015 by consumer But Mr Teoh’s personal shyness is remarkable run of success – and TPG’s organisation Choice, TPG was rated somewhat at odds with his grandiose reputation for running tight, reliable higher than most competitors for value ambitions. operations while keeping costs low – for money and call clarity but rated The company is now set to expand will stand the firm in good stead as relatively poorly for network coverage. into Singapore after winning a spectrum it ventures into Singapore. The firm The firm plans to start delivering bid to become the country’s fourth started as a small computer hardware services 2018 and aims for a market mobile provider. seller in Sydney in 1986, shortly after share of 5 or 6 per cent. According to experts in Australia, Mr Teoh emigrated from Malaysia. Analysts noted that TPG’s planned TPG’s strong track record in entering It shifted into providing Internet outlay on the Singapore venture of up established markets and its reputation as services in the early 2000s and has to A$400 million was relatively small. a low-cost provider suggest the venture gradually merged with or bought a range The firm has long sought to boost its could pay off. of Internet, phone and infrastructure mobile phone business in Australia. Analysts believe Singapore is set to firms. It currently offers mobile services Mr Teoh’s aversion to publicity has be a “testing ground” for the firm to in Australia, using Vodafone’s underlying made headlines in Australia but it has gain experience in operating mobile network. only seemed to strengthen his reputation infrastructure. The company is believed Mr Budde said TPG was adept at as a measured business leader who is to want to become Australia’s fourth delivering extremely competitive prices not a wild risk-taker but a hands-on, mobile network provider, alongside but its customer service was relatively well-respected forward thinker. Telstra, Optus and Vodafone. poor, a common failing in the Australian “There is nobody in the industry “They (TPG) are typically a cherry- telecommunications sector. The firm who has such a low profile,” said Mr picker – they look at where the was one of the most cost-effective Budde. “It is his personality but it is interesting opportunities are in the telecommunication companies in the also about keeping his head down and market and go for it,” independent developed world, he said. concentrating on the business.” telecommunications analyst Paul Budde “If Mr Teoh is entering Singapore, it told The Straits Times. is because he thinks he has seen a cost- [email protected]
29 By Invitation
Arnoud De Meyer For The Straits Times To innovate, let’s get passionate
Singapore has robust infrastructure, reliable
communication of human talent. That does require good bandwidth and universities educating great scientists excellent universities. and engineers. But not everybody can, or should be, a top researcher. You also need However, can technicians who can translate research creativity flourish into real products and systems. You need creative designers who can shape these in the city-state? products into iconic concepts, business specialists who can imagine the business model and salesmen and marketeers who can convince the customer to buy. The education system needs to be performing at all levels, be it technical education, polytechnics, business STRAITS TIMES education, or in the arts and design. GRAPHICS A third dimension is the legal framework in which companies operate: Is it easy to start and stop a business, can n October, I spent a week visiting made innovation hubs successful. And one enforce contracts, can intellectual the campuses of some top I concluded that Silicon Valley, as well property be protected so that an universities in the East Coast of as hubs like Haifa and Tel Aviv in Israel, innovator can reap the rents from his the United States. I was taken the cluster around Cambridge in Britain, or her investment? a bit by surprise by a question and well-known places such as Munich There is no doubt that on these three Ithat I was asked several times: Was the in Germany, Linkoping in Sweden or dimensions, Singapore scores very high- closure and transfer from Singapore to Sophia Antipolis near Nice in France, probably better than any other region California of Novartis’ research centre performed quite well on six common in this world. We are not perfect but on tropical diseases a symptom of an dimensions. we do very well. But what about the underlying problem with Singapore as next three? an innovation hub? THREE AREAS WE The Swiss pharmaceutical giant WHERE WE COULD announced in October that it is DO WELL IN moving the Novartis Institute for The first of these dimensions is DO BETTER Tropical Diseases (NITD) to Emeryville, a robust and performing technical The fourth dimension is the degree California, this year. The move was part infrastructure. Reliable and sufficient to which the providers of finance are of “a broader global strategic plan”, communication bandwidth, and able to accompany the risk-taking Novartis Institutes for BioMedical excellent universities with laboratories entrepreneurs. Obviously, you need to Research president James Bradner had that can help in the development of new have the business angels, and perhaps told The Straits Times. products and systems, as well as a good government support, to invest in the I personally thought it was a pure supply chain and logistics network, all very early starters. But you also need business decision limited to one company. contribute to the quality of that technical the venture capitalists who are prepared But it made me reflect whether we could infrastructure. This costs lots of money, to invest in second, third, fourth, and improve on Singapore’s position as a but it is relatively easy to put in place. other stages of financing. place to develop innovations that make Singapore’s Government early this year You need financial engineers who a difference for the world. announced it had committed to an understand business risks, and who What makes the success of an investment of $19 billion in the research are willing to guide and support the innovation hub? All over the world, and technological infrastructure through entrepreneurs in their arduous journey governments have wondered how to the Research Innovation Enterprise to grow the company. They know where recreate a new “Silicon Valley”. In the (RIE) Plan 2016-2020. to find capital that is prepared to take early 2000s, I did research on what The second dimension is the depth risks, and are masters at limiting the
30 By Invitation cost of capital for the entrepreneur to The sixth dimension is the access to the minimum possible. markets. In some cases, that means that My opinion is that Singapore has innovators have large home markets. sufficient support for start-ups. We That is clearly the case in China, have an excellent banking system to Indonesia, India or the US. But smaller support mid-size and larger companies. countries such as Israel, Finland or the But I often hear that in between those Netherlands have found ways around two financial communities, we miss the it. They partner with players in these sophisticated group of financiers that big markets. can help in the growth of a start-up. For the bulk of Israeli companies, the real market is in the US. They Still, Singapore is doing well have developed strong partnerships on all six dimensions. But with friends in the US who can do will this be enough? A good- the marketing and distribution for to-excellent performance them. This is the Achilles’ heel for on these six dimensions Singapore innovators. Our local market is probably necessary, but is too small, our real knowledge about not sufficient to be a great neighbouring markets is limited, and innovation hub. It is not our networks in large overseas markets simply about ticking the are underperforming. Still, Singapore is doing well on all six boxes. We also need passion Innovation hubs are dynamic places: talent dimensions. But will this be enough? A flows in and out. We should not be surprised for innovation, tolerance good-to-excellent performance on these that labs, like the Novartis one, leave us after for a bit of messiness and more than a decade of good work. six dimensions is probably necessary, but PHOTO: NOVARTIS creativity, a great openness not sufficient to be a great innovation hub. to the world, and the in the appropriate department, and it modesty that we cannot IS IT ENOUGH? can be slow and unpredictable. Can our be good at everything. It is not simply about ticking the boxes. organisations cope with that messiness? We also need passion for innovation, Is creative chaos allowed? The fifth dimension measures the tolerance for a bit of messiness and All innovation hubs happen to be in degree to which the society is rewarding creativity, a great openness to the world, places with a good quality of life. It is creativity and celebrates the role models and the modesty that we cannot be good not difficult to understand why: Creative of innovators and entrepreneurs. This is at everything. and entrepreneurial people usually have about creating a culture that appreciates As a scholar, I do research on how to a choice where to live and can adapt to innovation and entrepreneurship. innovate. I have met many innovators in very different environments. They tend It also requires large local companies my life. They share some characteristics to drift towards places where it is good to accept that a small local start-up can – some nice, some not so nice. In fact, to live. And all of these places strongly be their supplier. some of them have really unpleasant value diversity. Or that the Government is willing personalities. Whoever has read a book Accepting diversity does not mean to buy from smaller companies, even about that great innovator Steve Jobs that we try to hide our differences. though they are not the cheapest or the will know that he had many great Accepting and managing diversity most reliable. strengths. But very few, if any, in his means that we talk about the differences, It is often argued that Hewlett professional environment would have and see how we can get synergies out Packard created Silicon Valley through described him as nice. of being different. I hope that we can its procurement: it was prepared to buy keep a similar openness for diversity from small unproven start-ups and work The reality is that innovation in Singapore, so that we can attract the with them to improve their products. is messy. It does not follow best talent from the world to our shores. We have made significant strides in strict development paths, And we should not expect that such Singapore in developing such a culture. it may not happen in the talent will stay here forever. Innovation Since the late 1990s, I have seen a major appropriate department, hubs are dynamic places: talent flows change. Parents are prepared to let their and it can be slow and in and out. We should not be surprised children take risks. Not all expect their that labs, like the Novartis one, leave us offspring to take a government job or a unpredictable. Can our after more than a decade of good work. job in a multinational corporation upon organisations cope But did we optimise their impact on graduation. And young Singaporeans with that messiness? Is Singapore while they were here? That are considering forgoing well-paid jobs creative chaos allowed? is, for me, the real question. to take risks. Finally, we may have to make The Government is investing in Innovators are driven, have passion choices about which technologies and the supporting infrastructure, such as for their concept, and are often ruthless systems we can excel in. It is a simple incubators and innovation fairs. I see about collaborators or competition. strategy of differentiation and focus. As a real momentum, though we still lag Are we sufficiently passionate here a small nation, Singapore must choose behind some of the best-performing in Singapore to have the ambition to some niche areas in which it wants to innovation hubs in the world. Cultures change the world? Do we instil such be the best. don’t change that fast. And our “box- passion in our young people? checking” attitude to procurement The reality is that innovation [email protected] processes has crippled many an is messy. It does not follow strict The writer is president of Singapore entrepreneurial start-up. development paths, it may not happen Management University.
31 Looking Ahead Disruptive tech trends for businesses
From virtual reality to innovative wearables, technology is shaping the way we think, Camera drone maker Autel act and do business. Robotics’ X-star quadcopter on Here’s a look at show at the 2017 Consumer some of the strategic Electronics Show in Las Vegas. technology trends that Drones such as these are expected are set to redefine the to be invaluable during emergency way we live and work search and rescue operations. PHOTO: REUTERS
rtificial Intelligence (AI) Reality, says digital technologies and ingredients and a finished dish, or and advanced machine automation have been replacing workers symptoms and a corresponding disease learning will likely be in agriculture and manufacturing, and are – is now at risk. But, at the same time, a hot topic this year, as now set to impact the services sector. new jobs will appear because we will technologies that can He says: “More old jobs will continue need new interfaces between automated Aunderstand, learn, predict and adapt to disappear, and while we can only guess services, websites, AI applications and come ever closer to adopting roles now at the scale of the coming disruption, we so forth.” performed by humans. should assume that it will be profound. Gartner, a leading information Google’s AlphaGo, the AI system “Any job in which people serve as technology and advisory firm, has that mastered one of the world’s most an interface – between, say, a GPS and identified the following as the top 10 complex games, Go, and ended up a car, documents in different languages, strategic technology trends: beating grandmaster Lee Sedol, caused shockwaves last year. This year, much more of that disruptive change might AI AND ADVANCED MACHINE LEARNING become visible. The more advanced techniques have moved beyond “We are sharing the infosphere with traditional rule-based algorithms to create systems artificial agents that are increasingly that understand, learn, predict, adapt and, potentially, smart, autonomous and even social,” operate autonomously. writes Oxford professor Luciano Floridi, “Applied AI and advanced “machine learning” give in The Straits Times on Jan 21. rise to a spectrum of intelligent implementations, “The most profound implication of including physical devices such as robots, autonomous this epochal change may be that we are vehicles, consumer electronics, as well as apps and most likely only at the beginning of it,” services such as virtual personal assistants or VPAs, he says. says Gartner vice-president David Cearley. “The AI agents that have already “These implementations will be delivered as a new class of obviously intelligent apps and things as well Edgar, a telepresence robot built by arrived come in soft forms, such as apps, Nanyang Technological University, Web-bots, algorithms and software of all as provide embedded intelligence for a wide range can display a user’s face and kinds; and hard forms, such as robots, of mesh devices and existing software and service expressions, allowing for better solutions,” he adds. communication over long distances. driverless cars, smart watches and other PHOTO: ST FILE gadgets. “They are replacing even white-collar workers and performing functions that, just a few years ago, were considered DIGITAL TWIN off-limits for technological disruption: A digital twin is a dynamic software model of a physical thing or system that relies cataloguing images, translating docu- on sensor data to understand its state, and respond to changes, improve operations ments, interpreting radiographs, flying and add value. drones, extracting new information from Within three to five years, hundreds of millions of things will be represented by huge data sets, and so forth,” he writes. digital twins. Organisations will use digital twins to proactively repair and plan Prof Floridi, who is the author of for equipment servicing and manufacturing processes, operate factories, predict the book, The Fourth Revolution: How equipment failure or increase operational efficiency. The Infosphere Is Reshaping Human They can also be used to perform enhanced product development.
32 Looking Ahead
VIRTUAL REALITY AND AUGMENTED REALITY CONVERSATIONAL Immersive technologies such as virtual reality SYSTEM (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are expected to advance rapidly until 2021. AR and VR are already being used to enhance communication and collaboration, from aiding in tasks as simple as viewing sales data to allowing engineers to collaborate with each other in real-time. An Amazon Echo device displayed at CES 2017 These immersive technologies are also proving to in Las Vegas, Nevada. PHOTO: AFP be valuable tools in marketing. With the help of VR, The current focus for conversational Visitors try out virtual reality consumers can better visualise how a new piece of interfaces is focused on chatbots and goggles at the inaugural Singapore furniture might look in their homes, or even take a microphone-enabled devices such as International Cyber Week. virtual sneak peek at a holiday destination. PHOTO: ST FILE speakers smartphones, tablets, personal computers and cars. However, the digital mesh encompasses INTELLIGENT THINGS DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY an expanding set of endpoints that people can use to access applications PLATFORMS and information, or interact with people, Digital technology platforms are social communities, governments, and the building blocks every business businesses. needs in order to go digital. Major As the device mesh – the web of digital technology platforms include wearable and mobile devices and Internet information systems, customer of Things sensors that people use to find experience, analytics and intelligence, information or communicate online – the Internet of Things, and business evolves, connection models will expand ecosystems, and every digital business and greater cooperative interaction Global online giant Amazon completed its first will have some combination of these between devices will emerge, creating delivery by drone in December last year. five digital technology platforms. the foundation for a new continuous and PHOTO: AFP ambient digital experience. Intelligent things refer to physical things that go beyond the execution of rigid programming models to exploit INTELLIGENT APPS applied AI and machine learning to Chatbot Sevi deliver advanced behaviours, and Intelligent apps such as VPAs perform some of developed by the functions of a human assistant by making StreetStine Technology, interact more naturally with their is able to answer surroundings and people. everyday tasks easier – by prioritising e-mails, questions on property for example – and its users more effective, by topics ranging from As intelligent things such as drones, highlighting the most important content and market valuations to autonomous vehicles and smart interactions. Other intelligent apps, such as virtual listing availability and plot ratio. appliances permeate the environment, customer assistants, are more specialised for tasks PHOTO: STREETSTINE Gartner says it anticipates a shift from in areas such as sales and customer service. TECHNOLOGY GROUP stand-alone intelligent things to a collaborative intelligent things model. ADAPTIVE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE MESH APP AND SERVICE Adaptive Security Architecture refers to flexible ARCHITECTURE security measures put in place to protect an In the mesh app and service organisation’s information. ASA can be broken architecture (Masa) mobile apps, web down into four key components – predict, Symantec’s Cyber Security Centre in block/prevent, detect and respond – and these Singapore enables businesses to shorten apps, desktop apps and Internet of the time between detection and response Things apps link to a broad mesh should work together to provide solid protection and proactively counter emerging of back-end services to create what from cyberthreats. threats. PHOTO: SYMANTEC users view as an “application”. The architecture encapsulates services BLOCKCHAIN and exposes APIs (Application program interface or a set of routines, A blockchain is a type of distributed ledger in which digitally protocols and tools for building recorded data is grouped into “blocks”, which are then software applications) at multiple encrypted and bound together in chronological order, forming levels and across organisational a “chain”. boundaries balancing the demand for This innovative technology is probably best known as the agility and scalability of services with system through which the cryptocurrency Bitcoin operates, composition and reuse of services. but it is also being tested by a number of banks as a means of making quick, overseas inter-bank transactions. Blockchain, the technology The Masa enables users to have behind digital currency, an optimised solution for targeted While most of the interest in this kind of technology has bitcoin, is being tested by a been from the financial industry, other potential applications number of large companies. endpoints in the digital mesh such as PHOTO: BLOOMBERG desktops, smartphones, and cars as include music distribution and identity verification. well as a continuous experience as they shift across these different channels. Additional information from Deloitte reports, Adaptive Security and Manage Engine blogs. — Reporting by Nadia Chevroulet and Arina Nadiah Saifudin 33 Field Notes
Tor Ching Li For The Straits Times Japan 2020: Robot revolution
From delivery is looking forward to living in such a void, both manpower and emotional, an apartment in Drone City, due for left by this demographic trend. and cleaning to completion in three years’ time. Japan remains one of the world’s top communication and He first researched drones for mine suppliers of industrial robots, and is now a detection, which requires a hovering pace-setter in the drone industry as well. companionship, device. Now, Dr Nonami and his team In Nagasaki prefecture, Henn-na robots are becoming have developed drones that have the Hotel (which literally means “Strange an integral part of ability to do simultaneous 3D mapping Hotel” in Japanese, though the hotel of the surroundings and navigate within prefers the nuance of “different”) is the daily life in Japan enclosed spaces – a function that proved world’s first hotel to be staffed mainly extremely helpful in 2011 for inspecting by robots. damaged nuclear power plants after the It started welcoming guests with isitors will see a beeline of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. humanoid bows and smiles in July last drones in the sky in Chiba The Drone City is the result of a year. Some 160 robots in various shapes prefecture, just an hour joint idea proposed to the Japanese and sizes do everything from manning away from the capital by government by Chiba City and Chiba the concierge to delivering luggage to train. University. cleaning rooms. VAt the designated drone zone, to be “We hope people will come to see “Our robot staff give consistently called Drone City, there will be around the Olympics and the Drone City,” Dr good service to all guests, without rest 200 of these flying robots whizzing Nonami said. or complaint,” said a spokesman for Huis through the air across a 10km distance Japan has always had a fascination Ten Bosch, the group that runs the hotel. at any one time, delivering goods from with the potential of robots, which can But the spokesman added that the warehouses in Tokyo Bay to apartments be traced back to the 1960s anime robots are not so efficient when it comes that come with built-in landing ports for boom when Astro Boy – an android to bed-making or doing cleaning that delivery drop-offs. boy – launched into Japan’s subculture. involves water. Leading drone expert and pioneer, Now, with a rapidly ageing population, Still, the robot theme is a hit with Dr Kenzo Nonami of Chiba University, robots also play a practical role: they fill its hotel guests.
Henn-na Hotel in Nagasaki prefecture, which opened in July last year, is the world’s first hotel to be staffed mainly by robots. PHOTO: HUIS TEN BOSCH
34 Field Notes
There is also an experience museum called the “House of Robots” where visitors can try their hand at flying drones and interacting with robots. Driven by the growing interest in the use of robots, Takashimaya Shinjuku Department Store in Tokyo held a “Living with Robots Fair” for the first time in August. Over 100 types of robots were on display Among them was Pepper, created by telecommunications provider Softbank. Pepper can talk in an endearing manner, gesticulate and whizz around on wheels. It comes with an “emotion engine” that gives it the semblance of having feelings when interacting with humans. As for home companionship, IT journalist Tsusumu Ishikawa, who has lived with a Pepper unit for over a year, conceded that Pepper is a bit of a white elephant as it doesn’t help with housework and is rather big relative to the size of his home. “That said, my wife and I have developed some sort of attachment to it,” added Mr Ishikawa. Henn-na Hotel’s “House of Robots” experience museum, where children can try out robot suits and armour and engage in mini-battles. Visitors can also fly drones and interact with robots. [email protected] PHOTO: HUIS TEN BOSCH
IT journalist Tsusumu Ishikawa and his wife have lived with “Pepper” for over a year. The robot can talk in an endearing manner, gesticulate and whizz around on wheels, and also comes with an “emotion engine”. PHOTO: TSUSUMU ISHIKAWA
Dr Nonami, from Chiba University’s Department of Mechanical Engineering, looks forward to living in Drone City, due for completion in three years. PHOTO: TOR CHING LI
35 Knowledge
Michelle Quah Senior Correspondent, The Business Times What the world’s most successful people read
ver wondered what the world’s Thanks to Sage, a global business software a heavy-going tome on leadership, business, most successful people read? solutions provider, we now know what politics or self-help. Do they lean on how-to books sits on the bookshelves of the world’s top It just goes to show that inspiration comes Eto guide their success, or scan businessmen, politicians and celebrities. in different forms, and that experiences, no through personal accounts by their industry Sage has compiled an interactive list, titled matter how offbeat, can impart lessons to competitors to stay ahead? “By The Book” (http://www.sage.co.uk/c/v/ us all. Do they steep themselves in history, by-the-book/), of the book recommendations Here’s a look at some of books inspiring or browse through light-hearted pulp to of the world’s 100 most successful people. some successful people to attain greater unwind? Fortunately, not every book on this list is heights:
Mr Bill Gates Mr Mark Zuckerberg Mr Tim Cook American business magnate Founder of Facebook CEO of Apple and co-founder of Microsoft Creativity, Inc.: Overcoming Competing Against Time Business Adventures by the Unseen Forces That by George Stalk Jr. and John Brooks Stand in the Way of True Thomas M. Hout Twelve stories from Wall Inspiration by Amy Wallace Based on ten years of research, Street, with each offering and Ed Catmull this book is about using time an enlightened account Written by the co-founder of as a strategic weapon to gain of a moment in America’s Pixar Animation Studios, competitive advantage. corporate history that defines Mr Catmull’s book is about the top companies today. unconventional philosophies behind the company’s success. Mr Satya Nadella CEO of Microsoft The End of Absence, Ms Ellen Degeneres Mr Warren Buffett Reclaiming What We’ve Comedian and actress American business magnate, Lost in a World of Constant The Four Agreements: A investor and philanthropist Connection by Practical Guide to Personal Stress Test: Reflections on Michael Harris Freedom by Don Miguel Riz Financial Crises by In this thought-provoking The book offers wisdom to Tim F. Geithner book, the author argues allow one to aspire towards In this personal memoir, readers that in the midst of constant freedom and true happiness. are given front-row seats to changes in today’s world, future These agreements are: Be Geithner’s life story as Secretary generations will find it difficult impeccable with your word. of Treasury, and the difficult to grasp “the end of absence”, don’t take anything personally, choices and decisions he had to as all the silent, unconnected don’t make assumptions and make to avert a second Great moments in our lives are filled. always do your best. Depression in America.
Mr Jamie Dimon Ms Indra Nooyi Mr Jeff Bezos CEO of JP Morgan CEO of PepsiCo CEO of Amazon The World Is Flat: A Brief The Road to Character by Sam Walton: Made in History of the Twenty-first David Brooks America by Sam Walton, Century by Thomas By taking a page from some John Huey L. Friedman of the world’s most inspiring Written by the founder of The World Is Flat is leaders, The Road to Character Walmart, it narrates the Friedman’s account of the offers its readers a chance to transformation of a small rapid developments in the re-evaluate and build richer dime store in America to the world as technological lives marked by values such as largest retailer in the world developments connect people humility and faithfulness. by the company founder. around the world at an unprecedented pace. Peter Thiel Mr Tony Hsieh Co-founder of Paypal CEO of Zappos The Great Illusion by Search Inside Yourself: Mr Elon Musk Norman Angell The Unexpected Path Founder of SpaceX and co- founder of Tesla Motors Published over a century ago, to Achieving Success, the book seeks to address the Happiness (And World Zero to One: Notes on question: “Why is there war?” Peace) by Startups, or How to Build The author, a Nobel Peace Chade-Meng Tan the Future by Peter Thiel, Prize winner, offers much to One of Google’s first Blake Masters debate and ponder over. engineers, Chade-Meng Legendary entrepreneur Tan, documents and offers Peter Thiel talks about how readers a class in health and to create new things. happiness. PHOTOS: BLOOMBERG, AFP, REUTERS, SHUTTERSTOCK. 36 Think: How to show what you want to say? Think: How to turn busy, distracted eyeballs your way?
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