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SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Monthly MARCH 2007 1 March 2007 This report is available online and can beFORECAST viewed together with Update Reports on developments during the month at www.securitycouncilreport.org CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE OVERVIEW FOR MARCH Annual Statistics on Council South Africa will have the presidency of the n The Council relationship with the Peace- Activity ..............................................3 Council in March. building Commission Status Update since our February n Côte d’Ivoire (including the proposal for No thematic debates are currently planned— a Council mission) Forecast ...........................................3 although some event to mark Interna- Chad/Central African Republic ........4 tional Women’s Day is possible and a thematic Behind the scenes two very serious issues Sudan (Darfur) ....................................5 discussion later in the month cannot be ruled are also likely to be pre-occupying Council Somalia .................................................7 out. Other planned open meetings of the members. These include Kosovo and Iran. Council include: Kosovo ..................................................9 Kosovo n the monthly meeting on the Middle Lebanon..............................................11 East; The Ahtisaari report is expected to be Liberia .................................................13 finalised and submitted to the Council in n adoption of a resolution on Afghanistan, Côte d’Ivoire ......................................15 extending UNAMA; and March. However, in view of the complex issues it will raise and the sensitivity of the Iraq ......................................................16 n adoption of a resolution on Liberia, Guinea-Bissau ...................................18 extending UNMIL matter for many Council members, it is not Consultations are expected on: expected to be scheduled for consulta- Peacebuilding Commission ...........19 tions or open Council meetings until April n Sudan/Darfur Afghanistan .......................................21 at the earliest. n Chad Upcoming Issues in Sanctions n Somalia We have prepared an initial brief on the Committees ...................................23 n Lebanon (UNIIIC and implementation of issues for this Forecast and will cover it in Notable Dates for March .................24 resolution 1701) more detail once the final report is available. Important Dates over the Horizon ...24 n Iraq and UNMOVIC >>page 2 n Guinea-Bissau Aide-Memoire Important matters pending before the Coun- mentation of the [Darfur Peace] Agreement leaves future periodic Secretary-General’s cil include: or commits human rights violations.” reports in abeyance. Because of the n The 2005 World Summit requested reforms n On Somalia, the Council is still to act on its absence of a request from the Council, the relating to the Military Staff Committee. “intention to consider taking measures Secretariat has no mandate to proceed to This has yet to be addressed. against those who seek to prevent or block produce the report. n Implementation of the phased approach a peaceful dialogue process, overthrow the n The Secretary-General’s report on cross for Darfur as agreed in Abuja in Novem- Transitional Federal Institutions by force, or border issues and inter-mission coopera- ber 2006 is lagging. Sudan has not take action that further threatens regional tion in West Africa, originally due by 31 responded to the heavy support package stability” expressed in resolution 1744. December 2006, is still overdue though it proposal contained in the Secretary- n On the DRC, the Council is still to consider may be issued in March. General’s 24 January letter. AU-UN imposing individual sanctions under resolu- n The December 2004 report by the Secre- agreement on details of a hybrid opera- tions 1649 and 1698 against armed groups’ tary-General on human rights violations in tion as endorsed by the Council on 19 commanders that recruit children and/or Côte d’Ivoire, requested by a presidential December is still pending. refuse to disarm. statement, has still not been made public. n No action as envisaged in resolution 1706 n The draft resolution on small arms circu- Also on Côte d’Ivoire, the December 2005 on Darfur has been taken to impose ”strong lated by Argentina in March seems to have report by the Secretary-General’s Special effective measures, such as asset freeze or lapsed. The issue is no longer included as a Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide has travel ban, against any individual or group footnote on the Council’s calendar. The not been published. that violates or attempts to block the imple- absence of a Council decision on this matter Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 1 OVERVIEW FOR MARCH (continued) Iran March. Also it is unclear whether any of the extremely relevant. Although the Court held On 22 February Mohammed ElBaradei, the new elected members will seek to play a that technically Serbia was not responsible Director-General of the IAEA, confirmed what larger role in the discussions. for the genocide in Bosnia, its findings that was already common knowledge—Iran has genocide did occur in Srebrenica and that not complied with resolution 1737 and Sudan and Chad the former Republic of Yugoslavia failed in refuses to suspend enrichment-related activ- The conflicts in eastern Chad and western its obligation to prevent it, are very impor- ities. Instead Iran seems to be expanding its Sudan are linked, not only by the cross- tant. On the facts in Sudan, it seems unlikely enrichment activities. However, it also contin- border activities of the protagonists, but that the state of Sudan and its leadership ues to insist that it is ready for meaningful also in many other ways. Both involve many would be similarly absolved. And the Court’s negotiations, but without preconditions. of the same players. Both involve horrific criticism of those who could have done use of violence against civilians. Both have something but failed to act perhaps sends a For its part the US continues to say that it precipitated large flows of refugees and dis- message of much wider application. wishes for a diplomatic solution. However, placed persons. And there are in both cases anxiety levels have increased with the arrival firm proposals on the table for UN forces to Somalia in the region of a US naval task force and in provide the backbone for operations to pro- Although not formally on the agenda in light of the increasingly tough stance being tect civilians, build processes for political March it is inevitable that Council members taken by the US military in the region, both reconciliation and establish security. The will be watching the situation in Somalia in public statements and in action against Council is dealing with each country as a very closely. Consultations are expected, Iranian personnel in Iraq. Initiatives to pro- separate agenda item, but it has a close not only because of the apparent ongoing mote the possibility of a negotiated solution appreciation of the regional dimension and deterioration in the security situation, but have been discouraged. The US turned is trying to keep that in mind. also with a view to keeping the political rec- down ElBaradei’s proposal last month for a onciliation process on a respectable track. “timeout”. One other factor which now characterises both situations is the fact that while they are It is not clear that the window of opportunity Russia seems to be less publicly supportive enemies, both Chad and Sudan are resist- that was seen in January and February will of Iran than in the past—perhaps because ing the deployment of UN personnel. This stay open indefinitely. Progress with the its advice that an incremental approach reluctance to give consent, in the face of deployment of the AMISOM force is there- would be more productive has not borne almost universal international opinion that a fore likely to be an important issue. However, any fruit as yet. Also it seems to have slowed UN presence is both appropriate and nec- it seems that at this stage most Council mem- down progress with the new Bushehr essary, seems to stem from concern that an bers are not ready to take up discussion of nuclear reactor, which it is helping to con- impartial and independent presence will in the proposed UN operation to take over from struct in Iran. But it is strongly advocating the long run result in changed political and AMISOM. It remains to be seen whether the that both Iran and the US should make military realities on the ground. In this Council will be active in urging an enhanced compromises to permit the resumption of regard, it probably reflects also a belief in UN role in the political process. negotiations. N’Djamena and Khartoum that their oppor- Lebanon tunities for using military means to achieve The Council will have two different aspects of At press time the five permanent members their objectives are not yet exhausted. of the Council plus Germany were meeting the Lebanon issue on its agenda. The first is in London to discuss their response to Iran’s Neither government seems ready for a gen- a report from Commissioner Serge Bram- non-compliance. The US has made it clear uine national reconciliation process—and mertz on progress with the UNIIIC that it will be seeking stronger sanctions especially not one in which the leadership, investigation into the Hariri assassination and against Iran. But the US has also said that skills and experience of the UN can be an associated request from Lebanon to this time around it is unwilling to indulge in brought into play. There is one important extend the Commission for 12 months. This the extended negotiations which character- difference, however. Chad shows some should be straightforward, but may reopen a ised the discussions on draft resolutions in concern for the plight of the refugees and sensitive discussion from January about who 2006.