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Warming up the Region the Impacts of Climate Change in the Yorkshire and Humber Region

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Warming up the Region the Impacts of Climate Change in the Yorkshire and Humber Region Warming up the region The impacts of climate change in the Yorkshire and Humber region WS Atkins, Stockholm Environment Institute- York (SEI-Y), The Met Office Warming up the region The impacts of climate change in the Yorkshire and Humber region WS Atkins, Stockholm Environment Institute, The Met Office WS Atkins report: AK2970.068.dg.013 Project Steering Group : Yorkshire Forward, Yorkshire and Humber Assembly, GOYH, Environment Agency, Hull City Council, Business in the Community, AEP, UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) Information about the UK Climate Impacts Programme can be found on their web site http://www.ukcip.org.uk Email: [email protected] This report should be referenced as: WS Atkins, 2002. Warming up the region: The impacts of climate change in the Yorkshire and Humber Region. WS Atkins report no: AK2970.068.dg.013, Epsom. pp. 109. WS Atkins Consultants Ltd Woodcote Grove, Ashley Road, Epsom, Surrey KT18 5BW Tel: (01372) 726140 Fax: (01372) 740055 Contact: Dr. Steven Wade [email protected] The Old Brewery, High Court, The Calls, Leeds LS2 7ES Tel: 0113 2421607 Fax: 0113 2422100 Contact: Katherine Pygott [email protected] Stockholm Environment Institute-York (SEI-Y), Biology Department, University of York, York YO10 5YW Tel: 01904 432897 Fax: 01904 432898 Contact: Johan Kuylenstierna [email protected] The Met. Office London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SZ Tel: 01344 856130 Fax: 01344 854943 Contact: Malcolm Hough [email protected] Yorkshire and Humber Climate Change Impact Scoping Study Draft Final Report Rev. 2 JOB NUMBER: AK2970 DOCUMENT REF: AK2970/68/dg/013 Rev 1 For Client Comment James Katherine Steven 30/5/02 G Darch Massey Pygott Wade (inc. comments from S Wade meeting on 23/4/02) Rev 2 (inc. client G Darch James Katherine Steven 14/6/02 comments on Rev. 1) S Wade Massey Pygott Wade Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Revision Purpose Description Business in the Community WS Atkins Report AK2970\068\dg\013 Rev. 2 14/6/02 AK2970_final_140602_rev2_www.doc Yorkshire and Humber Climate Change Impact Scoping Study Draft Final Report Rev. 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment Report stated that “There is now stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” It is clear that we need to adapt to climate changes now and anticipate future impacts for this generation and future generations. This study focuses on impacts rather than mitigation which is the subject of a separate scoping study (Yorkshire Forward, forthcoming). It is a first step and may lead to further industry or community led studies of specific impacts and adaptation requirements. This report is part of a series of sub-UK scoping studies completed with the support of the UK Climate Impacts Programme. This study aims to identify the main impacts of climate change, stakeholder perceptions and responses and gaps and uncertainties in our understanding of climate impacts. It covers the Yorkshire and Humber Region that includes the cities of Sheffield, Leeds, Hull, Bradford and York; the towns of Huddersfield, Wakefield and Grimsby and Scarborough; the Yorkshire Dales and North York Moors National Parks and the Humber Estuary. Collectively, the Regional Development Agency, local authorities and their partners recognise that climate change is an important consideration for future development: “Climate change is another major challenge facing the region. The consequences seem to be beginning to manifest themselves through more frequent extreme weather events, sea level rise and increasing average temperatures. The region needs to plan for these consequences” (Regional Sustainable Development Framework – RSDF, 2001: p.19) In order to provide a framework for dealing with this uncertainty the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) has recently provided a new set of future climate scenarios1 that describe the rates of warming in response to different levels of emissions, namely Low Emissions, Medium-Low Emissions, Medium-High Emissions and High Emissions. These scenarios update and improve upon an earlier set of UKCIP scenarios released in 1998. The new climate scenarios suggest that the region will be between 1 and 2.3 oC warmer by the 2050s and between 1.6 to 3.9 oC warmer by the 2080s. This warming will occur throughout the year with the greatest rises in the summer months of up to 2.9 oC in the Humber Estuary by the 2050s under the High Emissions scenario. This warming will be accompanied by wetter winters and drier summers. In a major departure from the findings of the 1998 scenarios, the 2002 scenarios suggest that summers will be drier throughout the region and, along with drier springs and autumns, will lead to a reduction in average annual rainfall of between 10 and 20%. The climate will change significantly by the 2050s and dramatically by the 2080s. The major changes by the 2080s include:- · Increases in sea level of between 6 and 82 cm, with the greatest rates of rise in the Humber Estuary under the High Emissions scenario. The scenarios for the Humber are centred on an average rate of 6 mm per year that is currently used for planning purposes. · An increase in high rainfall intensities during the winter across the region, causing urban flooding problems in Bradford and other cities. · Increases in the number of very hot days throughout the region with the greatest impact in large cities such as Leeds away from the coast. · An increase in the length of the growing season by between 45 and 100 days along the Yorkshire and Lincolnshire coasts. 1 UKCIP02 scenarios released 26th April 2002. © Crown Copyright 2002. The UKCIP02 climate scenario data have been made available by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). DEFRA accepts no responsibility for any inaccuracies or omissions in the data nor for any loss or damage directly of indirectly caused to any person or body by reason of, or arising out of any use of, this data. Yorkshire and Humber Climate Change Impact Scoping Study Draft Final Report Rev. 2 While changing average conditions will affect many human activities and natural processes, the main impacts of climate change are likely to be related to changing extreme events. The most notable changes for the 2080s Medium-High Emissions scenario include:- · A fourfold increase in the frequency of “wet” winters with 60% more rainfall than average (1961-1990) · A fourfold increase in the frequency of a “dry” summer with 50% less rainfall than average (1961-1990) · A hot “1995” type summer nearly every year rather than once in hundred years based on the 1961 to 1990 climate Changes in future climate will interact with future social and economic changes and other factors to shape the Yorkshire and Humber region over the next 50 years. This study has evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on changing flood risks, water resources, agriculture, forestry, the service sector, industry and commerce and transport. The analysis was based on literature review, consultations with over 100 stakeholders and expert opinion. The study found that there is likely to be a range of positive and negative impacts on the region, for example:- · Increases in flood frequency and adaptation in terms of the operation of flood defences and the development of washlands and other systems to manage runoff at source on a catchment scale. · Adaptation in many sectors depends upon an adequate and reliable source of water. The potential for additional water storage within the region requires serious consideration. · There will be a need for new management strategies of coastal defences under the changed climate conditions. · Management procedures for the protection of landscape features and habitats will need to be adapted to changed climate conditions. The upland moorland of the North York Moors and Pennine areas are particularly vulnerable. · The Humber estuary stands out as an area of high importance and high vulnerability to climate change. Flooding will affect internationally important wetlands, high quality agricultural land, ports and other industries in the flood plain and leisure facilities. · A changing climate will present opportunities within the agricultural sector for both new crops and technical developments. It will also present a challenge to specific existing crop production systems. · Increased tourist pressure under a changing climate will require the upgrading of existing leisure facilities and provision of new ones. There will be opportunities for new forms of coastal tourism and recreation. · Industry will be challenged to develop new ranges of products under conditions of less intensive energy use. There are also opportunities to develop new technologies to support climate change adaptation. · Significant threats to road and rail as a consequence of extreme weather conditions have been identified and a programme of "climate change proofing" is required. In addition, the transport sector can deliver GHG reductions but has not been tasked to do so. · There is a low level of awareness in the region about the implications of climate change and its impacts on economic activities. This is a threat to the region's economic performance and suggests that a sustained programme of information delivery, awareness raising and discussion is required supported by target setting and resources to do this work. In order to adapt to climate change, these potential impacts need to be considered within the mainstream framework for sustainable development. Climate change adaptation reinforces actions for sustainable development. In addition further work is required in climate change adaptation within the region including: - · Consensus building. Increasing awareness of climate change impacts and encouraging smaller businesses to consider energy efficiency, water efficiency, climate risks and climate opportunities. · Managing extremes. Lessons learned from the 1995 drought and Autumn 2000 floods need to be incorporated into contingency plans for future more frequent flood and drought conditions.
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