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Prefatory Note the Attached Document Represents The Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the best- preserved paper copies, scanning those copies,1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable.2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I FOMC JUNE 27, 1997 MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES PREPARED FOR THE FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE BY THE STAFF OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Strictly Confidential (F.R.) June 27, 1997 Class I - FOMC MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Recent Developments (1) Since the Committee meeting on May 20, the federal funds rate has averaged near its unchanged intended level of 5-1/2 percent. Most other market interest rates declined, on balance, apparently in response to incoming data suggesting that growth of final demand was slowing markedly in the current quarter and inflation was remaining well-contained (Chart 1). Private short-term rates dropped 5 to 15 basis points; rates on Treasury bills, however, fell more as bills continued to be paid down in volume in response to robust federal tax receipts. Futures rates for federal funds and Eurodollars now suggest that the likelihood that markets had attached to additional near-term System tightening at the time of the May meeting has evaporated; indeed, markets seem to anticipate that policy is likely to be on hold well into next year and perhaps beyond. (2) Rates on intermediate- and longer-term instruments declined about 15 to 25 basis points, with forward rates dropping noticeably all along the yield curve. The view that a downshift in inflation expectations-perhaps precipitated by a string of consistently good inflation readings--contributed to this decline is supported by the considerable narrowing over the intermeeting period of the spread between nominal interest rates and the rate on the Treasury's indexed note. The narrowing in that spread also may reflect a reduction in uncertainty about future inflation and, hence, the size of the inflation risk premium embedded in nominal rates--a notion consistent with the sizable drop in the implied volatility of note and bond yields in recent months. These developments were, on net, quite positive for equity Chart 1 Selected Treasury Interest Rates Percent Selected Stock Indexes Index* IDaily GDP EmD. RSRSICPI, ,p IP GP EmI. J FMAM J J ASON D J FMA 1996 1997 'Index, Jan 1996=100 Daily beainnina May 19. Change in Implied One-Year Federal Funds Futures Percent Forward Rates Since May 19 Basis Points r____ -7 06/27/97 ........ 05/19/97 .......... 4.b 1 2 3 5 June July Au Sep Oct 1 2 3 5 7 10 Contract Months Years Ahead Implied Volatility from Options on U.S. Bond Futures Percent Exchange Rates Index -11.0 rDaily Weekly May 19 FOMC -10.5 -10.0 Yen* ./. 9.5 9.0 Trade-Weighted Dollar Index 8.5 (3/73=1 00) 8.0 6/3/96 9/6/96 12/13/96 3/21/97 6/27/97 J FMAM J J ASOND J FMAM J 1996 1997 *Index, Jan 1996=100 BAMMA:knd Daily beginning May 19. -2- markets, which moved up sharply on balance over the intermeeting period to reach record levels. (3) The dollar's weighted-average exchange value appreciated about 2/3 percent, on balance, over the intermeeting period even though U.S. long-term rates fell by more than the average of foreign long-term rates; the latter declined 15 basis points. The dollar appreciated more than 1-1/2 percent against the DM and most other continental European currencies in response to a growing perception in the market that none of the major European countries will be able to comply strictly with the Maastricht deficit criterion--implying that if EMU goes forward, it will be with a broad group of countries. The market apparently believes that a broad EMU, and one that might place a bit greater emphasis on reducing unemployment given the results of the French election, will be less committed to the monetary discipline required for price stability. The dollar declined 1 percent against the yen amid growing market focus on recent and prospective increases in Japan's current account surplus. Short-term interest rates in most industrial countries were little changed over the intermeeting period. Short-term rates moved up in the United Kingdom and Canada after the newly independent Bank of England increased its repo rate by 1/4 percentage point and the Bank of Canada raised its bank rate by the same amount. Italian short-term rates are expected to fall next week after the Bank of Italy announced late today that it would cut both its discount and Lombard rates by 50 basis points effective next Monday. ; the Desk did not intervene. -3- (4) Broad money grew moderately this month. M2 is estimated to have increased at a 4-1/4 percent rate in June after expanding at a subdued pace over April and May. From the fourth quarter of last year through June, M2 grew at a 4-3/4 percent rate, placing it just a bit below the 5 percent upper bound of its annual range. This outcome is about in line with that envisioned by the staff at the time of the February Committee meeting, despite what is now expected to be considerably more rapid nominal income growth than had been projected. The velocity of M2 was apparently up about 1 percent at an annual rate in the first half of the year--although M2's opportunity cost was little changed--perhaps because the substantial flows into equity mutual funds included some savings that would have been in M2. Still, this is a relatively small increase in velocity, and the relationship between M2 velocity and its opportunity cost re-established over the last couple of years appears to remain broadly intact. M3 is estimated to have increased at a 3-1/2 percent pace in June, down from the 5-1/4 per- cent average rate in April and May. Rapid M3 growth over most of the first half of the year--associated with robust expansion of bank credit, paydowns of liabilities to foreign offices with proceeds from large time deposit issuance, and rapid growth in MMMFs--left M3 in June 3/4 percentage point above the 6 percent upper bound of its range, in line with the staffs expectation in February. (5) Private debt growth has picked up in recent months, reflecting greater credit demands and continuing favorable supply conditions for the business sector. Debt of the household sector, though still growing more rapidly than disposable income, has continued to expand at the more moderate rate established in the final months of last year. With the strengthening in the expansion of nonfederal debt, total debt growth has edged up in recent -4- months despite a marked slowing in its federal component. Domestic nonfinancial debt grew at a 4-3/4 percent annual rate from the fourth quarter of last year through May, near the middle of its annual range. -5- MONEY, CREDIT, AND RESERVE AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth) 96:Q4 to April May June June3 Money and Credit Aeregates -11.3 Adjusted for sweeps .5 M2 M3 Domestic nonfinancial debt Federal Nonfederal Bank Credit 11.3 Adjusted' 13.4 Reserve Measures Nonborrowed Reserves2 -24.5 -112 Total Reserves -21.9 -11.0 Adjusted for sweeps 3.3 5.0 Monetary Base 4.7 Adjusted for sweeps 6.5 Memo: (millions of dollars) Adjustment plus seasonal borrowing 243 258 Excess Reserves 1010 1241 1176 1. Adjusted to remove effects of mark-to-market accounting rules (FIN 39 and FASB 115). 2. Includes "other extended credit" from the Federal Reserve. 3. For nonfinancial debt, 96:Q4 to May. NOTE: Monthly reserve measures, including excess reserves and borrowing are calculated by prorating averages for two-week reserve maintenance periods that overlap months. Reserve data incorporate adjustments for discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirements. -6- Longer-Term Strategies (6) This section provides a longer-term perspective on several strategic issues confronting the Committee. With the Greenbook forecast of unemployment throughout 1998 a percentage point below the staffs working assumption for the NAIRU, inflation would be expected to be on a rising trajectory into 1999. In light of this outlook, we first present alternative strategies, derived using the staffs econometric model, that the Committee could select for containing or reducing inflation in the medium term.
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