DOCSLIB.ORG

FOMC Meeting Presentation Materials

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
FOMC Meeting Presentation Materials APPENDIX 1 Charts used by Mr. Fisher in his statement 3-Month Deposit Rates Page 1 January 1,1997 - January 30, 1998 Current Euro-deposit Rate; Forwards Implied by Traded Forward Rate Agreements LIBOR Fixing 3-mo. forward 6-mo. forward 9-mo. forward United States German Percent 6.4 ------6 4 -------------------------------------------------- 6.4 . United DJIA FOMC Jan States declines Nov 12 FOMC 554 pts 6.2 Mar 25 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.8 4.2 4.2 Germany 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.4 1.0 0.8 .8 0.6 1.00.8 0.4 0.4 01/01 01/29 02/26 03/26 04/23 05/21 06/18 07/16 08/13 09/10 10/08 11/05 12/03 12/31 01/28 Page 2 Percent U.S. Treasury Yields & Fed Funds Future Implied Rate Percent 6.25 6.25 FOMC Chairman's Meyer's ECI Dec 16 Speech Speech Jan 3 Jan 8 6 6 5.75 5.75 5.5 5.5 April Fed Funds Contract 5.25 5.25 5 5 1 3 5 9 11 15 17 19 23 25 29 31 2 6 8 12 14 16 20 22 26 30 Dec Jan Implied Fed Funds Yield Rate Curves Yield Yield Treasury Yield Curv Yield 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 / 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 Dec 16 Dec 16 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 Jan 9 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 3m 6m 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 5Yr 10Yr 30Yr30Yr $/Yen Yen per Dollar and Marks per Dollar $/DM 135.0 1.850 FOMC Dec 16 132.5 1.825 Yen per dollar (left axis) 130.0 1.800 127.5 Marks per dollar (right axis) 127.5 1775 125.0 1.750 1 3 5 9 11 15 17 19 23 25 29 31 2 6 8 12 14 16 20 22 26 28 30 Jan Per. Avg. Rate 5.44% 10 10 Per. Avg. Rate 5.59% 7 1/2 10 Per Avg. Excess $1.9bn. Per Avg. Excess $1.8bn. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE D effective Range Per. Avg. Rate 5.53% standard Per Avg. Excess $1.7bn. deviation H H (+/- one) 0 O L L I I D A Fed Funds Target Rate A Y End of Y Maintenance Period Dec 24 31 Jan 4 8 2 0 APPENDIX 2 Charts used by Mr. Prell and Ms. Johnson in their presentations STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC Material for Staff Presentation to the Federal Open Market Committee February 3, 1998 Chart 1 Summary of Staff Forecast Economic Growth Four-quarter percent change Q4/Q4 percent change Real private domestic final purchases Private Domestic GDP Final Purchases 1996 1997 1998 1999 1996 1997 1998 1999 Resource Utilization Percent Q4 average Manufacturing Capacity Utilization U CU 1996 81.4 1997 82.2 Unemployment rate 1998 79.3 1999 78.6 1996 1997 1996 1999 Consumer Price Inflation Four-quarter percent change Q4/Q4 percent change Total Core 1996 2 1997 1998 1 1999 1996 1997 1998 1999 Chart 2 Financial and Fiscal Backdrop * Federal funds rate remains near * Bond yields generally remain in recent 5-1/2 percent lower range Real Funds Rate Term Structure and Real GDP Growth Percent 8 6 Based on, PCE forpastfourquaetersinflation 10 year - 3 month Treasury rates 4 2 + 0 2 4 1986 1990 1994 1998 1986 1990 1994 1998 * 9801 observation based on January survey. * Share prices will drop moderately * No changes in fiscal policy over coming year Corporate Earnings Forecasts Federal Budget Deficit Percent change from previous year Billions of dollars 300 Unified S&P 500 operating earningsper share 200 100 NIPA after-tax book profits 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 1986 1990 1994 1998 * Source: Goldman Sachs provided history for 1992-96. Fiscal years I/B/E/S provided 1997 estimate and forecast for 1998-99. Chart 3 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates Nominal Exchange Rates Nominal Exchange Rates (Foreign currency per U.S. dollar) (Foreign currency per U.S. dollar) 1/94 = 100 1/94 = 100 120 110 100 German mark Sterling 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Three-Month Interest Rates Ten-Year Interest Rates Level Change Level Change 1/30/98 7/1/97 to 1/30/98 1/30/98 7/1/97 to 1/30/98 United Kingdom 7.41 0.59 United Kingdom 6.05 -1.01 Canada 5.08 1.53 Canada 5.42 -0.90 Germany 3.48 0.46 Germany 5.05 -0.67 Japan 0.80 0.10 Japan 1.82 -0.56 United States 5.52 -0.16 United States 5.53 -0.92 Nominal Exchange Rates Real Exchange Rates* (U.S. dollar per foreign currency) (U.S. dollar per foreign currency) 1/94 = 100 1/94 = 100 Hong Kong dollar That baht 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 * Adjusted by consumer prices Mexican Peso Real Weighted-Average Dollar (U.S. dollar per foreign currency) 1/94 = 100 1994Q1 = 100 100 80 29-Currency CPI-adjusted dollar* 60 40 20 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 * Weighted-average for exports Chart 4 Import Prices Prices of U.S. Imports Foreign Consumer Prices in Dollars* EU 1995 1996 * Weighted by shares in U.S. bilateral imports. Non-oil Commodity Prices Oil Prices 1995Q1 = 100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Import Prices * Non-oil goods excluding computers, and semiconductors. Chart 5 Foreign Outlook Real GDP: US and Foreign Foreign Real GDP* Percent change, annual foreign 1996 1997 1998 1999 1996 1997 1998 * Weighted by U.S. nonagricultural exports. * Weighted by U.S. nonagricultural exports. **Annual data are Q4 to Q4 percent change. Share of US Exports : 1996-1997 Real GDP: Asian Developing Countries Industrial Countries 57 Percent Change, Q4/Q4 Developing Countries 43 of which 1997 1998 1999 Latin America 19 Korea 3.9 -3.6 3.0 Asia 19 Southeast Asia* 2.5 -1.0 2.6 of which Greater China* 6.4 2.7 4.5 Korea 4 Southeast Asia* 4 Greater China** 7 *Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia. * Weighted by U.S. nonagricultural exports **China, Taiwan and Hong Kong Current Account Balances: Asia* Current Account Balances: Latin America Billions of dollars Billions of dollar 120 Current Current September Greenbook 40 Greenbook Greenbook 0 September 40 Greenbook 80 1996 1997 1998 1999 *Asia excluding Japan Chart 6 Industrial Countries Real GDP: Industrial Countries Price-Adjusted Exchange Rates* 1996Q1 = 100 110 Percent change, Q4/Q4 199 1998 1999 Japan 0.3 1.3 1.5 100 Canada 4.3 3.0 2.6 Japanese yen 100 United Kingdom 3.1 1.7 1.9 EU-11 2.9 2.5 2.9 of which: Germany France German mark Italy 80 1996 1997 1998 1999 * Weighted average for exports Trade with Asian Developing Countries, 1995-1996 Share of Total Share of Exports Exports Going to Asian in Total GDP Developing Countries Japan Canada EU memo: United States Business Confidence Business Confidence 1977Q1 = 100 Percent balance Percent balance Chart 7 Real Net Exports Core Import Quantities* Core Export Quantities* Four-quarter percent change 15 Four-quarter percent change 10 5 10 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 *Non-oilgoods excluding computers and semiconductors. *Nonagricultural good excluding computers and semiconductors. Total Real Goods and Services Contribution of Real Net Exports to Real GDP Growth* nge 16 Percentage Points, AR 12 1996 -0.4 1997-Q1 -1.0 8 Q2 -0.4 Q3 -1.3 Q4 0.6 1998 -0.9 1999 -0.4 0 * Annual dataQ4,Q4. Chart 8 Household Spending Real Personal Consumption Consumer Sentiment Four-quarter percent change Index, 1966=100 6 120 5 100 4 3 80 2 60 0 40 1996 1997 1998 1999 1982 1987 1992 1997 Net Worth and Personal Saving Rate Mortgage Refinancing Activity Percent Ratio Index, 1990=100 2400 4-quarter moving average MBA loan applications index, monthly 1800 1200 600 0 1982 1987 1992 1997 1992 1995 1998 Note: Last observation is average for first three weeks of January Cash-flow Burden of Homeownership* Housing Starts Monthly payment/income Millions of units. saar 2 1.5 Multifamily 0.5 0 1978 1985 1992 1999 1996 1997 1998 1999 * Based on new home, 30 year ARM Chart 9 Business Spending Real Business Fixed Investment Growth of Net Capital Stock Four-quarter percent change Percent change, saar 30 6 5 20 4 10 3 2 + 0 1 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 Computer Prices Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods Ratio scale, index 1992=100 Billions of dollars 1520 45 1020 Excluding aircraft 520 42 39 3-month moving average 36 33 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 1996 1997 Inventory Growth Inventory-Sales Ratio Months 2.55 2.52 2.49 2.46 2.43 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Chart 10 Labor Market Labor Productivity Chained $92/hr, ratio scale 32 Nonfarm Business Actual 28 T r en d Growth trends 1974:Q1-1990:Q2 1.1% 1990:Q2-1995:Q2 0.8% 1995:Q3-1999:Q4 1.2%* 20 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 *On a consistently measured basis. As reported, 1.3 percent in 1998, 1.5 percent in 1999. Payroll Growth Labor Force Participation Rate Thousands per month Percent 500 70 Quarterly averages 400 68 300 66 200 100 6 62 1996 1997 1998 1999 1980 1986 1992 1998 Employment Cost Indexes ECI Total Compensation Four-quarter percent change 10 Private Industry Q4/Q4 percent change 1995 2.6 6 1996 3.1 4 1997 3.4 1998 3.2 Wages and salaries 2 1999 3.1 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 Chart 11 Inflation Outlook Unemployment and Inflation Capacity Utilization and Inflation Change in CPIPI inflationInflation Change in CPI inflation 10 10 1959 to 1997 1959 to 1997 8 8 R2 = .36 R 2 = .41 6 6 4 4 2 + + 10 0 1997 2 2 1997 4 4 6 6 8 8 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1010 70 75 80 85 90 95 Unemployment Rate Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate CPI - Food CPI - Energy Four-quarter percent change Four-quarter percent change 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 1995 1997 1999 Inflation - Adjusted for BLS Technical Changes to Indexes Q4/Q4 percent change Cumulative effect of technical changes since 1994 Total CPI Core CPI 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Chart 12 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 1998 FOMC Q4 to FOMC Central Q4 Range Tendency Administration Staff change, Percent Percent change, Q4 to Q4 Nominal GDP 3-1/2 to 5 3-3/4 to 4-1/2 July 1997 H-H Report 4-1/4 to 5-3/4 4-1/2 to 5 Real GDP 1-3/4 to 3 2 to 2-3/4 July1997 H-H Report 2 to 3 2 to 2-1/2 CPI 1-1/2 to 2-1/2 1-3/4 to 2-1/4 July 1997 H-H Report 2-1/2 to 3 2-1/2 to 3 Average level, Q4, percent Unemployment rate 4-1/2 to 5 about 4-3/4 July 1997 H-H Report 4-1/2 to 5-1/4 4-3/4 to 5 NOTE: Central tendencies constructed by dropping top and bottom three from distribution.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Probing the Early Phase of High Energy Heavy Ion Collisions with Φ Meson and Correlations at RHIC
    Probing the Early Phase of High Energy Heavy Ion Collisions with φ Meson and Correlations at RHIC by Mukesh Kumar Sharma Post Graduate Department of Physics & Electronics University of Jammu, Jammu Tawi J&K - 180006 (INDIA) A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF JAMMU FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN PHYSICS (September 2015) Dedicated To My Loving Family DECLARATION I, Mukesh Kumar Sharma, declare that the work reported in this thesis entitled \Probing the Early Phase of High Energy Heavy Ion Collisions with φ Meson and Correlations at RHIC" has entirely been done by me under the supervision of Prof. Anju Bhasin in the Department of Physics and Electronics, University of Jammu, Jammu. No part of this work has been submitted in part or full for the award of the degree in any other University. Dated: Mukesh Kumar Sharma i ii POST GRADUATE DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS & ELECTRONICS UNIVERSITY OF JAMMU, JAMMU TAWI - 180006 CERTIFICATE It is certified that Mr. Mukesh Kumar Sharma, worked under my supervision and the work is worthy of consideration for the award of Ph.D Degree in Physics. It is further certified that: 1. the thesis embodies the work of the candidate himself; 2. the candidate worked under my supervision for the period required under statutes; 3. the candidate has put in the required attendance during that period in the Department; 4. the conduct of the candidate remained satisfactory during that period; 5. the candidate has fulfilled the statutory conditions as laid down in Section 18 of statutes governing degree of Doctor of Philosophy issued vide notification no.
    [Show full text]
  • Portfolio Risk Management: an Overview
    PORTFOLIO RISK MANAGEMENT: AN OVERVIEW Stephen ARO-GORDON, Ph.D.(2015) Department of Financial Mathematics Baze University Abuja Email: [email protected] / [email protected] WORKSHOP NOTES November 23, 2015 @ SDMIMD, Mysore, India 1 Coverage i. Revisiting some contemporary concepts of risk of portfolio, systematic risk, unsystematic risk and related aspects. (The presentation will be more focused on systematic forces in wealth development and management.) ii. Review of some recent developments, selected cases and problems in the field. November 23, 2015 @ SDMIMD, Mysore, India Scope… . Revisit some mathematical foundations of portfolio theory based on the Markowitz (1973) model, in order to appreciate the practicalities of the model in modern investment systems. Risk - Acknowledging risk-return tradeoff in finance comes from the fact that the return on investments is not known with certainty when the asset is bought, hence, the variability/volatility of returns, i.e. the uncertainty that the yield on an investment will deviate from what is expected. Total portfolio risk comprising systematic risk and unsystematic risk and familiar with the theory that a diversified portfolio will minimize risk and maximize returns. November 23, 2015 @ SDMIMD, Mysore, India Portfolio Theory: … a major field in Financial Mathematics Classification code Mathematical finance 91G10 Portfolio theory 91G20 Derivative securities 91G30 Interest rates (stochastic models) 91G40 Credit risk 91G50 Corporate finance 91G60 Numerical methods (including Monte Carlo methods) 91G70 Statistical methods, econometrics 91G80 Financial applications of other theories (stochastic control, calculus of variations, PDE, SPDE, dynamical systems) 91G99 None of the above, but in this section Source: http://www.ams.org/msc/msc2010.html?t=91Gxx&btn=Current [23/11/2015] November 23, 2015 @ SDMIMD, Mysore, India Total portfolio risk Portfolio risk is made up of two parts – Systematic risk (market risk) + Unsystematic risk (the individual risk of the component securities).
    [Show full text]
  • Angel Investing Strategy
    _______________________________________ Angel Investing Strategy Improving Outcomes with your Angel Investing Strategy September 15, 2014 _______________________________________ “Turning great ideas into prized companies to build entrepreneurial wealth” _______________________________________ _______________________________________ www.ohiotechangels.com www.twitter.com/OhioTechAngels This document may not be reproduced without prior written permission of Ohio TechAngels or the author. Angel Investing Strategy (AIS) Overview Much has been written about how angels should approach investing in Angel Backed Companies (ABCs), but such guidance rarely aims to provide angels with the tools to design their own personal Angel Investing Strategy (AIS) that reflects their beliefs, time and money available to invest in ABCs, and the realities of their deal flow. Angels who use the individual diagnostics contained in this manual will have not only considered the multitude of factors affecting their risk appetite, but also converted them into a serviceable Angel Investment Envelope (AIE) into which the preponderance of the deals they will pursue should reside. This will ensure they squander less of entrepreneurs’ precious time by pursuing off strategy opportunities, thereby making more time available for deeper dives into the types of deals that fit snuggly within their investment envelope boundaries. Disclaimer Nothing contained herein is intended to be, nor should be construed as, providing legal, accounting, or investment advice. We are merely highlighting such topics so that readers will become sufficiently curious to engage their own professional advisors in these fields. Early stage investing involves a very high risk of complete loss and may only be appropriate for accredited investors. ANGEL INVESTING STRATEGY WORKSHOP THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2014 (8:00 – 12:00 OSU Ohio Union) Question to be discussed: Suppose you have the liquidity, business acumen, deep domain knowledge in an industry and now have the time to become serious about angel investing.
    [Show full text]
  • Alternative Investment Strategies: an Interview with Bob Rice Angel Capital Association Webinar October 23, 2013
    Alternative Investment Strategies: An Interview with Bob Rice Angel Capital Association Webinar October 23, 2013 Bob Rice: Managing Partner, Tangent Capital; Author of The Alternative Answer John Huston: ACA Chairman Emeritus; Founder/Manager, Ohio TechAngel Funds Webinar House Rules for Attendees • Attendees are muted throughout the live presentation • Please provide questions for the speakers via the chat option in the bottom left of your screen • This program is being recorded and will be archived for viewing • We will share the presentation with all attendees 1 • Mission is to fuel the success of angel groups and private investors who actively invest in early-stage companies • 200+ member angel groups • 10,000+ accredited investors • 19 affiliated organizations • 3 accredited platforms • 48 states/5 provinces • Charitable partner: ACA Members Include Most Top Angel Groups 2 Alternative Investment Strategies: An Interview with Bob Rice Angel Capital Association Webinar October 23, 2013 Bob Rice: Managing Partner, Tangent Capital; Author of The Alternative Answer John Huston: ACA Chairman Emeritus; Founder/Manager, Ohio TechAngel Funds • Hundreds of free educational videos at: ALTANSWER.COM • Bob is – Bloomberg TV’s Alternative Investments Editor – Successful tech entrepreneur (founder of Viewpoint, a public 3D graphics company) - Active Angel - ex Partner at Milbank, Tweed - Founder of Tangent Capital, a NYC boutique investment bank 3 Invite here: Rule501.com/bob Invite Code: Rice501 Ohio TechAngel Funds (OTAF) • 117 monthly meetings since 2004 • Added 50 new members via our 4th fund • Total members = >320 across all 4 funds • Made 63 investments in 43 Ohio-based technology ventures 4 Traditional Investment Choices Public Equities • Globally: 63,000 publicly traded stocks; in US, 15,000 • Fed policies have driven up multiples (not earnings!) • An ever-diminishing % of new economic value is captured in these vehicles.
    [Show full text]
  • Arxiv:2105.06044V3 [Nucl-Ex] 22 Aug 2021
    Investigation of Experimental Observables in Search of the Chiral Magnetic Effect in Heavy-ion Collisions in the STAR experiment Subikash Choudhury,1 Xin Dong,2 Jim Drachenberg,3 James Dunlop,4 ShinIchi Esumi,5 Yicheng Feng,6 Evan Finch,7 Yu Hu,1, 4 Jiangyong Jia,4, 8 Jerome Lauret,4 Wei Li,9 Jinfeng Liao,10 Yufu Lin,11, 12, ∗ Mike Lisa,13 Takafumi Niida,5 Robert Lanny Ray,14 Masha Sergeeva,15 Diyu Shen,1, y Shuzhe Shi,16 Paul Sorensen,4 Aihong Tang,4 Prithwish Tribedy,4 Gene Van Buren,4 Sergei Voloshin,17 Fuqiang Wang,6 Gang Wang,15 Haojie Xu,18 Zhiwan Xu,15 Nanxi Yao,15, z and Jie Zhao6 1Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433 2Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720 3Abilene Christian University, Abilene, Texas 79699 4Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York 11973 5University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8571, Japan 6Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 7Southern Connecticut State University, New Haven, Connecticut 06515 8State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York 11794 9Rice University, Houston, Texas 77251 10Physics Department and Center for Exploration of Energy and Matter, Indiana University, 2401 N Milo B. Sampson Lane, Bloomington, IN 47408, USA 11College of Physics and Technology, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin, 541004, China 12Central China Normal University, Wuhan, Hubei 430079, People's Republic of China 13Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210 14University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712 15University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 16Department of Physics, McGill University, 3600 University Street, Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8, Canada 17Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan 48201 18Huzhou University, Huzhou, Zhejiang 313000 The chiral magnetic effect (CME) is a novel transport phenomenon, arising from the interplay between quantum anomalies and strong magnetic fields in chiral systems.
    [Show full text]
  • Arxiv:2109.00131V1 [Nucl-Ex] 1 Sep 2021 B
    Search for the Chiral Magnetic Effect with Isobar Collisions at psNN = 200 GeV by the STAR Collaboration at RHIC M. S. Abdallah,5 B. E. Aboona,55 J. Adam,6 L. Adamczyk,2 J. R. Adams,39 J. K. Adkins,30 G. Agakishiev,28 I. Aggarwal,41 M. M. Aggarwal,41 Z. Ahammed,60 I. Alekseev,3, 35 D. M. Anderson,55 A. Aparin,28 E. C. Aschenauer,6 M. U. Ashraf,11 F. G. Atetalla,29 A. Attri,41 G. S. Averichev,28 V. Bairathi,53 W. Baker,10 J. G. Ball Cap,20 K. Barish,10 A. Behera,52 R. Bellwied,20 P. Bhagat,27 A. Bhasin,27 J. Bielcik,14 J. Bielcikova,38 I. G. Bordyuzhin,3 J. D. Brandenburg,6 A. V. Brandin,35 I. Bunzarov,28 X. Z. Cai,50 H. Caines,63 M. Calder´onde la Barca S´anchez,8 D. Cebra,8 I. Chakaberia,31, 6 P. Chaloupka,14 B. K. Chan,9 F-H. Chang,37 Z. Chang,6 N. Chankova-Bunzarova,28 A. Chatterjee,11 S. Chattopadhyay,60 D. Chen,10 J. Chen,49 J. H. Chen,18 X. Chen,48 Z. Chen,49 J. Cheng,57 M. Chevalier,10 S. Choudhury,18 W. Christie,6 X. Chu,6 H. J. Crawford,7 M. Csan´ad,16 M. Daugherity,1 T. G. Dedovich,28 I. M. Deppner,19 A. A. Derevschikov,43 A. Dhamija,41 L. Di Carlo,62 L. Didenko,6 P. Dixit,22 X. Dong,31 J. L. Drachenberg,1 E. Duckworth,29 J. C. Dunlop,6 N. Elsey,62 J.
    [Show full text]
  • Clinical, Medical Physics, Radiation Protection and Safety Aspects
    XA9848503 IAEA-TECDOC-1040 Design implementationand a of radiotherapy programme: Clinical, medical physics, radiation protection and safety aspects INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY \ J 29-49 The IAEA doe t normallsno y maintain stock f reportso thin si s series. However, microfiche copie f thesso e reportobtainee b n sca d from IN IS Clearinghouse International Atomic Energy Agency Wagramerstrasse 5 0 10 P.Ox Bo . A-1400 Vienna, Austria Orders shoul accompaniee db prepaymeny db f Austriao t n Schillings 100,- for e for e chequa th f m th IAEmf o n i o n i r eAo microfiche service coupons which may be ordered separately from the IN IS Clearinghouse. FOREWORD e incidencTh f canceworle o th increasings n di i r , particularl relation yi prolongeo nt d life expectancy from worldwide improvement standardn si f livingso . Accordin receno gt t estimatef so the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the World Health Organization (WHO), approximately nine million new cancer cases are being detected per year worldwide, with slightly more than half of the cases occurring in developing countries. By the year 2015 this number is expected to increase to about 15 million cases, of which two thirds will occur in developing countries. About half of all cancer patients receive radiotherapy, either as part of their primary treatment or in connection with recurrences or palliation. Radiotherap multidisciplinara s yi y speciality which uses complex equipmen radiatiod an t n source r deliversfo f treatmentyo estimates i t I . d that approximately 2500 teletherapy machinee ar s currently installed in developing countries, where the cancer incidence is about 75-150 cases per 100 000 inhabitants.
    [Show full text]
  • Ibrekk Morten.Pdf (4.431Mb)
    Faculty of Science and Technology MASTER’S THESIS Study program/ Specialization: Spring semester, 2014 Industrial Economics Specialization in Risk Management and Open access Contract Management Writer: Morten Ytrehus Ibrekk ………………………………………… Faculty supervisor: Roy Endré Dahl Thesis title: Quantified Volatility Modelling and Diversification across Geographical Regions and Asset Classes Credits (ECTS): 30 Key words: Pages: 128 Volatility, Financial Markets, GARCH, Diversification, Equity, Bonds, + enclosure: 21 Eurozone Crisis, Financial Crisis, Terrorist Attacks Oslo, June 1st, 2014 This page intentionally left blank 1 | P a g e Quantified Volatility Modelling and Diversification across Geographical Regions and Asset Classes Morten Ytrehus Ibrekk June 1, 2014 Abstract Today’s financial markets are currently experiencing stock index valuations close to all time high while low interest rates creates a negative outlook for fixed income- securities. Historically, stock markets will periodically experience downward corrections, and more and more market participants are starting to fear that the current five year bull-market is coming to an end soon. This thesis will therefore look into how an investor may position their portfolio to reduce the volatility without compromising the long-term return, both over a longer time-span and during times of increased uncertainty. An analysis is also done to try to predict which major, market-altering incidents that may occur over the coming years, while still recognizing that market-altering events are often characterized by being close to impossible to predict. The historical cross-index relationship has been applied, and the index performance during times of market uncertainty was analyzed. This included an in-depth study of the financial crisis of 07-08 and the Eurozone crisis.
    [Show full text]
  • Arxiv:Submit/3905682 [Nucl-Ex] 31 Aug 2021 A
    Search for the Chiral Magnetic Effect with Isobar Collisions at psNN = 200 GeV by the STAR Collaboration at RHIC M. S. Abdallah,5 B. E. Aboona,55 J. Adam,6 L. Adamczyk,2 J. R. Adams,39 J. K. Adkins,30 G. Agakishiev,28 I. Aggarwal,41 M. M. Aggarwal,41 Z. Ahammed,60 I. Alekseev,3, 35 D. M. Anderson,55 A. Aparin,28 E. C. Aschenauer,6 M. U. Ashraf,11 F. G. Atetalla,29 A. Attri,41 G. S. Averichev,28 V. Bairathi,53 W. Baker,10 J. G. Ball Cap,20 K. Barish,10 A. Behera,52 R. Bellwied,20 P. Bhagat,27 A. Bhasin,27 J. Bielcik,14 J. Bielcikova,38 I. G. Bordyuzhin,3 J. D. Brandenburg,6 A. V. Brandin,35 I. Bunzarov,28 X. Z. Cai,50 H. Caines,63 M. Calder´onde la Barca S´anchez,8 D. Cebra,8 I. Chakaberia,31, 6 P. Chaloupka,14 B. K. Chan,9 F-H. Chang,37 Z. Chang,6 N. Chankova-Bunzarova,28 A. Chatterjee,11 S. Chattopadhyay,60 D. Chen,10 J. Chen,49 J. H. Chen,18 X. Chen,48 Z. Chen,49 J. Cheng,57 M. Chevalier,10 S. Choudhury,18 W. Christie,6 X. Chu,6 H. J. Crawford,7 M. Csan´ad,16 M. Daugherity,1 T. G. Dedovich,28 I. M. Deppner,19 A. A. Derevschikov,43 A. Dhamija,41 L. Di Carlo,62 L. Didenko,6 P. Dixit,22 X. Dong,31 J. L. Drachenberg,1 E. Duckworth,29 J. C. Dunlop,6 N. Elsey,62 J.
    [Show full text]
  • Arxiv:1206.5528V2 [Nucl-Ex] 7 Nov 2012 .J .Codrington, M
    version 6.0 Inclusive charged hadron elliptic flow in Au + Au collisions at √sNN = 7.7 - 39 GeV L. Adamczyk,1 G. Agakishiev,21 M. M. Aggarwal,34 Z. Ahammed,52 A. V. Alakhverdyants,21 I. Alekseev,19 J. Alford,22 B. D. Anderson,22 C. D. Anson,31 D. Arkhipkin,4 E. Aschenauer,4 G. S. Averichev,21 J. Balewski,26 A. Banerjee,52 Z. Barnovska,14 D. R. Beavis,4 R. Bellwied,48 M. J. Betancourt,26 R. R. Betts,10 A. Bhasin,20 A. K. Bhati,34 H. Bichsel,54 J. Bielcik,13 J. Bielcikova,14 L. C. Bland,4 I. G. Bordyuzhin,19 W. Borowski,45 J. Bouchet,22 A. V. Brandin,29 S. G. Brovko,6 E. Bruna,56 S. B¨ultmann,32 I. Bunzarov,21 T. P. Burton,4 J. Butterworth,40 X. Z. Cai,44 H. Caines,56 M. Calder´on de la Barca S´anchez,6 D. Cebra,6 R. Cendejas,7 M. C. Cervantes,46 P. Chaloupka,14 Z. Chang,46 S. Chattopadhyay,52 H. F. Chen,42 J. H. Chen,44 J. Y. Chen,9 L. Chen,9 J. Cheng,49 M. Cherney,12 A. Chikanian,56 W. Christie,4 P. Chung,14 J. Chwastowski,11 M. J. M. Codrington,46 R. Corliss,26 J. G. Cramer,54 H. J. Crawford,5 X. Cui,42 A. Davila Leyva,47 L. C. De Silva,48 R. R. Debbe,4 T. G. Dedovich,21 J. Deng,43 R. Derradi de Souza,8 S. Dhamija,18 L. Didenko,4 F. Ding,6 A.
    [Show full text]
  • Portfolio Risk Diversification, Coherent Risk Measures and Risk Mapping
    Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author. PORTFOLIO RISK DIVERSIFICATION, COHERENT RISK MEASURES AND RISK MAPPING, RISK CONTRIBUTION ANALYSIS AND THE SETTING OF RISK LIMITS A thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Studies in Finance at Massey University MUI KUEN YUEN 2003 Abstract Thi s study aims to investi gate the nature and sources of portfolio risks during normal as well as abnormal market conditions. The benefits of portfolio diversification will be studied first. Portfolio risk as measured by the volatility and beta will be calculated as the number of the positions is increased until the marginal diversification benefits obtained are at its optimal. Other measures based on statistical measures such as quantiles, quantile differences and quantile ratios for central tendency and asymmetry presence and significance of extreme events of skewness and kurtosis will also be used. This study is conducted on the daily data for the period August 9, 1998 to June 30, 2003, for 25 stock markets worldwide: Australia, Brazil, Chile, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerl and, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States. Based on the theory of central limit theorem (CLT) and hence jointly normal distributions, the relationship between portfolio diversification and value at risk (VaR) as a coherent risk measure is examined.
    [Show full text]
  • Prefatory Note the Attached Document Represents the Most Complete And
    Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the best- preserved paper copies, scanning those copies,1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable.2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I FOMC JANUARY 30, 1998 MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES PREPARED FOR THE FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE BY THE STAFF OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Strictly Confidential (F.R.) January 30, 1998 Class I -- FOMC MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Recent Developments (1) Financial market developments over the intermeeting period were once again dominated by investors' changing perceptions of the Asian economic turmoil and its potential repercussions for the U.S.
    [Show full text]