HUGO Assessing the economic and political environmentvision in New Zealand Confidential to October 2 2020 HUGO members Labour gliding on to second term Page 2 The first two opinion polls of the campaign are in and two of the three televised leaders’ debates have been and gone without the electoral landscape budging much. The dial has barely moved. Labour remains solidly 10-20 percentage points ahead of National and on track for a second term, either on its own in a first under MMP, or more likely in a coalition with the Greens. The chances of a National/ACT win are receding towards 5% as advance voting starts tomorrow. Winston tumbling into oblivion Page 3 This looks to have been the week Winston Raymond Peters’ political career finally ended. The polls show support for NZ First barely scraping 2%, which is set to be overtaken by the no-name New Conservatives. The SFO’s decision to charge two unnamed people connected to the NZ First Foundation with ‘obtaining by deception’ seemed the coup de grace. Duopolies face official scrutiny Page 5 There hasn’t been much anti-business rhetoric in a campaign notable for low-risk policy platforms and relatively sedate campaigning and debate styles. But frustrations with big business practice boiled up on both sides of politics this week. Judith Collins played the populist card with a threat to retrospectively claw back wage subsidies from profitable firms, while Labour said it would launch market studies on the grocery and building materials duopolies. Labour’s Tiwai Point pivot Page 4 So much for ‘good riddance’ when Rio Tinto announced in July it would shut its smelter in August next year. Labour’s initial ambivalence over an early shutdown evaporated this week as it reopened talks to extend Tiwai Point’s life by 3-5 years. Transpower will be the vehicle to deliver $90m-$150m worth of power cost cuts to Rio Tinto through a ‘prudent discount’ price cut forced on the network’s board. The sighs of relief reverberated from Bluff and up through the boardrooms of the gentailers. Farmers and lobbyists brace for second Labour term Page 3 Federated Farmers and Business NZ are hunkering down for a second term Labour-led govt, possibly with a Green sheen undulled by NZ First. The lobbyists distanced themselves in the campaign from some of National’s more inflammatory rhetoric. When the daigou don’t go Page 7 Almost $3b was carved off A2 Milk’s market value after it warned a shortage of Chinese tourists and students visiting Melbourne was hurting its sales via the ‘daigou’ channel, where cans of infant formula are informally exported to China via personal connections online and offline. Text finalised October 2 Contact: [email protected]. No responsibility is accepted for acts or omissions by clients as a result of items herein. © The Hugo Group 2020 HUGOvision October 2 2020 POLITICS AND POLICY Labour gliding to second term A Newshub/Reid Research poll on the Auckland Central seat, put Labour’s Helen White on 42.3% Two polls and a second leaders debate without support, National’s Emma Mellow on 26.6% and the Judith Collins delivering a knockout blow indicate Green Party’s Chloe Swarbrick on 24.2%. In terms of Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party is gliding towards a party support, Labour was at 56%, National 23%, and second term in power on Oct 17. National has been the Greens 12%. solidly 10 to 15 percentage points behind Labour for six months and is now unlikely to have enough time Labour list MP Kiri Allan also looks set to take the to close the gap. Advance voting starts tomorrow. East Coast electorate for Labour for the first time in 15 years. Anne Tolley took the seat for National in The lack of major policy differences between the two 2005. Allan led National’s Tania Tapsell by 40.5% to parties’ ‘small target’ manifestos and a lack of voter 35% in a poll commissioned by Labour from Auckland- enthusiasm amid covid-19 stresses has sucked the life based public opinion research company Community out of the campaign. Even another spirited showing Engagement between Sept 22 and 24. in the TV3 debate from the National leader was not enough to move the dial, especially with the Prime A psephology special Minister amping up her own performance after a lacklustre first showing. Labour was also solid in areas traditionally seen as National strongholds. The Newshub-Reid This week’s polls ahead of the start of early voting Research poll asked voters: Who do you trust to on Saturday put Labour comfortably in pole position run the economy through and post-covid-19? 55.1% to win, either on its own or with a Green coalition said Labour, 34.9% said National, while 10% were partner. The polls also showed NZ First was unlikely undecided or didn’t know. to return to Parliament. And that was before the Serious Fraud Office declared it had charged two The NZ Herald’s Mood of the Boardroom survey people associated with the NZ First Foundation showed Grant Robertson’s approval rating was 91% with ‘obtaining by deception,’ but not any NZ First while Paul Goldsmith’s was 53%, even though the members, MPs, candidates or ministers. Winston survey showed business executives’ confidence in the Peters claimed the SFO had exonerated him and the economy was at record lows. party, but failed to explain the differences between Goldsmith’s credibility has waned through the the foundation and the party, or how they worked campaign after Robertson exposed National’s fiscal together. He was a forlorn figure by week’s end. plan was wrong to the tune of $4b because the finance spokesman’s team had used an old forecast Pole position in the home strait for Labour’s payments to the NZ Super Fund. The A quick One News-Colmar Brunton poll done after blunder robbed National of any momentum on the the first debate last Wednesday found support for day of its virtual campaign launch from a very stage- Labour on 47%, down 1 percentage point from the managed Avalon sound stage. Collins spent the day previous week and down from 53% in late July. telling journalists how sorry Goldsmith was about National was on 33%, up two points after a solid the ‘irritating’ error. She tried not to look irritated. debate performance from Judith Collins, but barely Indicative of the unusual shifts in the electorate shifted from the late-July level of 32%. This result post the lockdown, pollsters are also finding older would mean Labour would just need the Greens National voters are opting for the perceived safety to form a govt, given the party’s 6% support. ACT and warmth of Jacinda Ardern. A Newshub poll was on 8%, up 1, and NZ First was on 1%, down 1. found 21% of National voters from 2017 were now With these numbers, David Seymour could have planning to vote Labour, while just 9% were opting a Green-sized caucus of 8 or 9 MPs, including one for ACT. It also found 40% of Green voters from 2017 or two colourful characters who could light up his also planned to vote for Labour. backbench -- and not necessarily in a good way. A TV3 Reid-Research poll taken in the week before Green around the gills the debate had Labour on 50.1%, National on 29.6%, The Green Party looks on track to (just) get back into NZ First on 1.9%, Green on 6.5% and ACT on 6.3%. Parliament, given its polling support of 6-7% is (just) Electorate polling also shows Labour candidates enough over the 5% to withstand the usual 1-1.5% ahead in swing seats. A Māori TV-Curia Research drop on election night. The party’s pre-election poll in Te Tai Hauāuru put Labour’s Adrian chatter also reinforced its relative lack of power in Rurawhe on 38% support and Māori Party candidate any coalition negotiations, given the impossibility of Debbie Ngarewa-Packer on 20%. joining a National-led govt. 2 HUGOvision October 2 2020 POLITICS AND POLICY James Shaw was forced to hose down talk from Julie members, ministers, MPs or candidates. Anne Genter that the party’s wealth tax proposal Peters claimed vindication of him and NZ First, was a ‘bottom line’ in any govt-forming talks. Shaw which was much more than the SFO either said or said Genter ‘misspoke’ as the Greens had “no bottom did. Interested voters are well aware of the evidence- lines, but would negotiate as hard as possible with based reporting by RNZ and Stuff of donations side- the election result it achieved.” Not such tough talk. stepping Electoral Commision rules. The Greens may not be able to insist on many policy But is this really the end for NZ’s political Lazarus? wins on the tax, welfare, transport or environmental He has been written off more times than he can fronts, but they will be hoping for more ministerial remember, let alone the rest of us. But this week power in a second term. Shorn of Deputy Prime looks to have been the final huzzah for the 75-year- Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters and his old two-time Deputy Prime Minister after more than three fellow NZ First Cabinet ministers, the Greens 40 years of crashing in and out of parties, electorates, hope to be in Cabinet for the first time. ministerial offices and a few drinks cabinets. The Ministerial lists are already being speculated on, with Cheshire-cat-like grins have gone and the legal bills the position of Deputy Prime Minister up for grabs are mounting.