DOCSLIB.ORG

Barron's Roundtable: Upbeat Stock Market Outlook for 2010 - Barrons.Com BARRON's COVER New Strategies for a New Era by LAUREN R

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Barron's Roundtable: Upbeat Stock Market Outlook for 2010 - Barrons.Com BARRON's COVER New Strategies for a New Era by LAUREN R Barron's Roundtable: Upbeat Stock Market Outlook for 2010 - Barrons.com BARRON'S COVER New Strategies for a New Era By LAUREN R. RUBLIN Our panel of Wall Street luminaries is surprisingly upbeat about the U.S. stock market -- although the ride will be bumpy. Plus, Felix Zulauf and Mario Gabelli offer their picks for the new year. MONDAY, JANUARY 18, 2010 MERYL WITMER General partner, Eagle Capital Partners, New York ARCHIE MacALLASTER Chairman, MacAllaster Pitfield MacKay, New York FRED HICKEY Editor, The High-Tech Strategist, Nashua, N.H. SCOTT BLACK Founder and president, Delphi Management, Boston, Mass. FELIX ZULAUF Owner and president, Zulauf Asset Management, Zug, Switzerland BILL GROSS Founder and co-chief investment officer, Pimco, Newport Beach, Calif. MARC FABER Managing director, Marc Faber Ltd., Hong Kong ABBY JOSEPH COHEN Senior investment strategist and president, Global Markets Institute, Goldman Sachs, New York OSCAR SCHAFER Managing partner, O.S.S. Capital Management, New York MARIO GABELLI Chairman, Gamco Investors, Rye, New York ALL HANGOVERS ARE LOUSY, whether you've overdone it on Dom Pérignon or plonk. But none is worse than a hangover caused by too much money. The mournful effects are everywhere today, in a sluggish economy, rampant unemployment and towering deficits that threaten to cripple our currency and wreck our living standards. These and other weighty topics -- like China's rise and gold's remarkable run -- were much on the minds of the members of the Barron's Roundtable when this loquacious and brainy bunch of market savants submitted last Monday to their annual grilling by this magazine's editors. The venue: the Harvard Club of New York. The conversation: lively and contentious, and ranging widely over history, politics and economics, not to mention diapers (thank you, Mario). Those ancient Harvard sages whose visages line the walls would have been suitably impressed. As the Roundtable men and women see it, governments and central bankers face grim choices now that the credit bubble has burst and economies -- ours and others -- have grown dependent on stimulus spending. Pimco's Bill Gross summed up the problem neatly: "The Republican orthodoxy of lowering taxes is broken. The Keynesian orthodoxy of government spending is broken. What we really need is some new orthodoxy." You won't get that from this unorthodox crew, although they've got suggestions aplenty for bigwigs like President Barack Obama (less regulation, lower corporate taxes) and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (enough with the printing presses!). They've also got a surprisingly upbeat view of the U.S. stock market, notwithstanding last year's stupendous rally. Indeed, our crowd thinks the market could gain another 5% to 20% in 2010, fueled by profit growth and continued government spending, although the ride will be bumpy, particularly in the second half of the year. This first of three Roundtable issues features the group's big-picture views, and the investment picks of Felix Zulauf and Mario Gabelli. Felix, owner of Zulauf Asset Management in Zug, Switzerland, is strictly a macro maestro these days, identifying exchange-traded funds and long and short strategies that reflect his defensive posture. But Mario, chairman of money manager Gamco Investors, is a stockpicker all the way. This year, he revisits the investment case for old friends, like Cablevision, and makes it for new ones, like Griffon, a manufacturer of diaper components. He also provides a thumbnail history of the deal game on Wall Street, which has entered another round. Want the details? Please read on. Barron's: In case none of you noticed, the market did rather well last year. What do you think 2010 will bring? Felix, let's hear from you. Zulauf: This will be a transitional year. I am not sure how it will end for the markets. Cyclical forces are bullish. Governments and central banks have poured money into the global economy. We don't know what the true condition of the economy would be without all that help. Are there any comparable periods in history? Zulauf: The only comparable in modern times is Japan, although Japan's financial and economic crisis was worse. Japan lost three times the value of its gross domestic product as asset values deflated, while the U.S. lost only one times GDP. On the negative side, we are in the early stages of a deleveraging process, which is marked by a shift from maximizing profits to minimizing debt. It is a multiyear process. The U.S. consumer is in bad shape, and the U.K. consumer is even worse. So are consumers in parts of southern and eastern Europe. If the consumer saves 5% and invests it in stocks or bonds, the savings remain in circulation. However, if he pays down debt with that 5%, the money comes out of the economic system. That is what is happening, and it will be a drag on growth. This structural setup could last another five years. The U.S. consumer has to lower his debt by at least $4 trillion. But fiscal stimulus is ongoing. Central banks have spent trillions of dollars to manipulate asset prices higher, and that's a positive in the near term. Isn't the stimulus slated to end this year? Zulauf: That's the big question. Central bankers themselves are somewhat afraid of what they have been doing. Politicians are worried about public-sector debt. Therefore, the authorities will try to step away slowly from their stimulation efforts, because this policy isn't sustainable. That's the risk for the markets. The U.S. stock market has enough momentum to rise another 10% or so. But the authorities will start leaning the other way as they see signs of economic growth in the first two quarters, and possibly a jump in inflation. That could push the market down. Schafer: How can you have deleveraging and better growth? Zulauf: Inventories fell to about 9% of GDP in the recession. Just replenishing inventories gets you better growth. Then you have government spending on the order of $400 billion. The funny thing is, whenever the consumer wants to save and tries to do the right thing, the government and central bank come in and encourage spending. For a while they will succeed, but then structural forces will take over. The Federal Reserve has said it will stop buying mortgage-backed securities by the end of March. Faber: But that might not happen. Hickey: The Bank of England kept buying after the date at which it pledged to stop, because the alternative would have been a downturn. Zulauf: If economic growth proves disappointing, the Fed will continue its stimulative policies. But if GDP grows at a better-than-expected rate in the first half of the year -- say, at 4% or 4.5% -- the Fed will try to stop its programs completely. No new liquidity will enter the system, and the market will be on its own. If it loses momentum and isn't priced cheaply, it will correct. That's what I expect. Abby, you must agree with all of that, right? Cohen: Felix is correct that the structural problems will take a while to correct, and the problem isn't just the United States. Some make the specious argument that what happened is all the fault of the U.S. consumer. But housing markets became overpriced throughout the world. Too much credit was extended in a whole variety of places. There is a big difference between the U.S. and Japan. One reason it has taken Japan so long to get out of its decade-plus of sluggish growth is that it took a long time for Japanese banks and corporations to adjust their balance sheets and accounting. This lengthy process occurred with government approval and acquiescence. In the U.S., the banking system probably took 18 to 24 months to shrink its balance sheet to more realistic levels. The largest banks, with the preponderance of assets, were subjected to stress tests last April, and government regulators did a thorough job. The data will never be perfect, but they are as clean as you can get them. Most of the remaining problems are concentrated among smaller and mid-sized banks. Unlike Japan, it won't take another 10 years to fix the accounting. Zulauf: Why not go for five? Cohen: Let's talk about inflation. Deleveraging keeps inflation at bay. It is hard to argue inflation will increase any time soon. Capacity-utilization rates are extremely low in the U.S. In most industries, they are running between 70% and 75%. It is hard to see where pricing power comes from. Most important, the labor market has a lot of slack. U6 [the broadest measure of U.S. unemployment] is more than 16%. The stated unemployment rate, which gets the headline attention, is running about 10%, and is going to stay elevated for a very long time. Even if industrial production picks up, unemployment will continue to lag. The problem is far more than cyclical. How so? Cohen: There were problems developing in the household sector as far back as 10 years ago. Median household income has barely kept up with inflation for more than 10 years. That may be one reason many families weren't as careful as they should have been in maintaining their savings rates, let alone not going into debt. Growth will be pretty good going into 2010, but it might not be sustainable. I see a pattern similar to the one Felix laid out: We will start the year in a vigorous way, but the benefit from rebuilding inventory diminishes.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • News from Senator BOB DOLE
    This document is from the collections at the Dole Archives, University of Kansas http://dolearchives.ku.edu News from Senator BOB DOLE (R - Kansas) SH 141 Hart Building, Washington, D.C. 20510 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: WALT RIKER DECEMBER 1, 1989 (202) 224-5358 DOLE ON MALTA: BUSH HAS ALL THE CARDS, GORBACHEV THE HEADACHES YWCA - WOMEN ACHIEVERS NEW YORK CI'IY DECEMBER 1, 1989 LET ME START BY INTRODUCING MYSELF. I AM ELIZABETH DOLE'S HUSBAND. THE SECRETARY OF LABOR IS IN POLAND TODAY, ON THE FRONTLINE OF THE FREEDOM REVOLUTION TIIAT IS SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN EUROPE. IT IS ONE OF THE GREAT CHAPTERS OF 20TH CENTURY HISTORY. SHE WAS LOOKING FORWARD TO SPEAKING TO THIS DISfINGUISHED AUDIENCE, BECAUSE SHE KNOWS SO WELL THE GREAT WORK THE Y.W.C.A. DOES AND THE KIND OF LEADERSHIP IT PROVIDES FOR AMERICA'S WOMEN. WOMEN: mo LHAOUE PU\YERS FOR HER, LET ME ALSO CONGRATULATE THE NEWEST MEMBERS OF THE ACADEMY OF WOMEN ACHIEVERS. AND AS I THINK ABOUT IT, NO ONE IS MORE QUALIFIED TO SPEAK ABOUT WOMEN ACHIEVERS THAN I AM. IN FACT, IN MY PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL LIFE, I AM SURROUNDED BY REMARKABLE WOMEN: ELIZABETH, OF COURSE; MY SENATE COLLEAGUE FROM KANSAS, NANCY KASSEBAUM; MY CHIEF OF STAFF, SHEILA BURKE; AND THE HEAD OF MY POLillCAL ACTION COMMITTEE, JO- ANNE COE. IN MY OFFICE, MY ARMS CONTROL EXPERT IS A WOMAN: MY BUDGET AND APPROPRIATIONS PERSON IS A WOMAN: MY TRADE ADVISOR IS A WOMAN. IN FACT, MY OFFICE IS FERTILE RECRUillNG GROUND FOR nrn FOUNDING CHAPTER OF THE "NATIONAL ORGANIZATION f'OR MEN".
    [Show full text]
  • Maggie-Mahar-Bull-A-History-Of-The
    BULL! Ba history of the boom and bust, 1982–2004 maggie mahar To Raymond, who believes that everything is possible — Contents — Acknowledgments vii Prologue Henry Blodget xiii Introduction Chapter 1—The Market’s Cycles 3 Chapter 2—The People’s Market 17 Beginnings (1961–89) Chapter 3—The Stage Is Set 35 (1961–81) Chapter 4—The Curtain Rises 48 (1982–87) Chapter 5—Black Monday (1987–89) 61 iv Contents The Cast Assembles (1990–95) Chapter 6—The Gurus 81 Chapter 7—The Individual Investor 102 Chapter 8—Behind the Scenes, 123 in Washington The Media, Momentum, and Mutual Funds (1995–96) Chapter 9—The Media: CNBC Lays 153 Down the Rhythm Chapter 10—The Information Bomb 175 Chapter 11—AOL: A Case Study 193 Chapter 12—Mutual Funds: 203 Momentum versus Value Chapter 13—The Mutual Fund 217 Manager: Career Risk versus Investment Risk The New Economy (1996–98) Chapter 14—Abby Cohen Goes to 239 Washington; Alan Greenspan Gives a Speech Chapter 15—The Miracle of 254 Productivity The Final Run-Up (1998–2000) Chapter 16—“Fully Deluded 269 Earnings” Contents v Chapter 17—Following the Herd: 288 Dow 10,000 Chapter 18—The Last Bear Is Gored 304 Chapter 19—Insiders Sell; 317 the Water Rises A Final Accounting Chapter 20—Winners, Losers, and Scapegoats 333 (2000–03) Chapter 21—Looking Ahead: What 353 Financial Cycles Mean for the 21st-Century Investor Epilogue (2004–05) 387 Notes 397 Appendix 473 Index 481 about the author credits cover copyright about the publisher — Acknowledgments — More than a hundred people contributed to this book, sharing their expe- riences, their insights, and their knowledge.
    [Show full text]
  • Jason Bordoff
    Jason Bordoff joined the Columbia faculty after serving until January 2013 as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Energy and Climate Change on the Staff of the National Security Council, and, prior to that, holding senior policy positions on the White House's National Economic Council and Council on Environmental Quality. One of the world's top energy policy experts, he joined the Administration in April 2009. At Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs, Bordoff is a professor of professional practice and serves as founding Director of SIPA's Center on Global Energy Policy. Bordoff's research and policy interests lie at the intersection of economics, energy, environment, and national security. He is a frequent commentator on TV and radio, including NPR, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC, has appeared on the Colbert Report, and has published in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and other leading news outlets. Prior to joining the White House, Bordoff was the Policy Director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy initiative housed at the JASON BORDOFF Brookings Institution. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Professor of Professional Practice in Relations and the National Petroleum Council, a consultant to International and Public Affairs; Director, the National Intelligence Council, and serves on the boards of Winrock International (a leading nonprofit organization that Center on Global Energy Policy works to empower the disadvantaged, increase economic Columbia University’s School of International opportunity, and sustain natural resources), the New York and Public Affairs Energy Forum and the Association of Marshall Scholars.
    [Show full text]
  • G.A.M.E. Ii Forum Global Asset Management Education
    G.A.M.E. II FORUM GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT EDUCATION Cosponsored by March 29 –31, 2012 EXCLUSIVE BROADCASTING PARTNER Sheraton New York Hotel & Towers, NYC WELCOME TO THE QUINNIPIAC G.A.M.E. II FORUM ver the next 2½ days, the second annual Quinnipiac Global Asset Management Education (G.A.M.E.) II OForum is bringing an international group of current and future leaders from the financial services industry together to explore important developments, challenges and opportunities facing investment professionals within our global financial markets. Industry support for this innovative investment conference is very strong. NASDAQ OMX Group, The Hartford, CFA Institute, LPL Financial, Eagle Asset Management and Davidson Investment Advisors, as Quinnipiac G.A.M.E. II Forum Strategic Partners, are joined by 93 firms in providing more than 122 keynote speakers, panelists, workshop presenters and student-managed portfolio competition judges. The global dimension of the Quinnipiac G.A.M.E. II Forum is also reflected in the more than 38 countries represented by our international group of participating students and their faculty mentors from more than 110 colleges and universities. Today, 16 keynote speakers will explore the economy, alternative assets, stock markets and corporate governance. After the keynote speaker panelists make their initial comments, the moderator will welcome questions from students in the audience. This will be your first opportunity to interact with top leaders in the financial services industry. On day two of G.A.M.E., students and faculty will participate in a number of concurrent breakout sessions, workshop presentations and keynote perspectives that will explore portfolio management, equity analysis, forensic accounting, risk and ethical decision making, to name a few.
    [Show full text]
  • @Ttalibrary @Ttalibrary BULL! Ba History of the Boom and Bust, 1982–2004
    @ttalibrary @ttalibrary BULL! Ba history of the boom and bust, 1982–2004 maggie mahar @ttalibrary To Raymond, who believes that everything is possible @ttalibrary — Contents — Acknowledgments vii Prologue Henry Blodget xiii Introduction Chapter 1—The Market’s Cycles 3 Chapter 2—The People’s Market 17 Beginnings (1961–89) Chapter 3—The Stage Is Set 35 (1961–81) Chapter 4—The Curtain Rises 48 (1982–87) Chapter 5—Black Monday (1987–89) 61 @ttalibrary iv Contents The Cast Assembles (1990–95) Chapter 6—The Gurus 81 Chapter 7—The Individual Investor 102 Chapter 8—Behind the Scenes, 123 in Washington The Media, Momentum, and Mutual Funds (1995–96) Chapter 9—The Media: CNBC Lays 153 Down the Rhythm Chapter 10—The Information Bomb 175 Chapter 11—AOL: A Case Study 193 Chapter 12—Mutual Funds: 203 Momentum versus Value Chapter 13—The Mutual Fund 217 Manager: Career Risk versus Investment Risk The New Economy (1996–98) Chapter 14—Abby Cohen Goes to 239 Washington; Alan Greenspan Gives a Speech Chapter 15—The Miracle of 254 Productivity The Final Run-Up (1998–2000) Chapter 16—“Fully Deluded 269 Earnings” @ttalibrary Contents v Chapter 17—Following the Herd: 288 Dow 10,000 Chapter 18—The Last Bear Is Gored 304 Chapter 19—Insiders Sell; 317 the Water Rises A Final Accounting Chapter 20—Winners, Losers, and Scapegoats 333 (2000–03) Chapter 21—Looking Ahead: What 353 Financial Cycles Mean for the 21st-Century Investor Epilogue (2004–05) 387 Notes 397 Appendix 473 Index 481 about the author credits cover copyright about the publisher @ttalibrary @ttalibrary — Acknowledgments — More than a hundred people contributed to this book, sharing their expe- riences, their insights, and their knowledge.
    [Show full text]
  • Harvard Business Review 3 HBR.ORG Features September 2016
    SEPTEMBER 2016 36 The Big Idea Why Your Company Needs a Foreign Policy John Chipman 82 Business Models Turning Services into Products Mohanbir Sawhney 104 Managing Yourself How to Tackle Your Toughest Decisions Joseph L. Badaracco WHAT DOES YOUR CUSTOMER REALLY WANT? HOW TO FIGURE IT OUT PAGE 45 HERMÈS BY NATURE September 2016 Contents 45SPOTLIGHT ON CONSUMER INSIGHT ABOVE Marijah Bac Cam 46 CUSTOMERS 54 STRATEGY 64 MARKETING X-pression I The Elements of Value Know Your Customers’ Building an Insights Engine Oil and canvas on Companies can increase both “Jobs to Be Done” A customer-centric approach cardboard revenue and customer loyalty The secret to creating products and is vital for driving growth, and by judiciously selecting from 30 services that customers want to buy Unilever’s insights and analytics fundamental attributes to augment Clayton M. Christensen, Taddy Hall, group exemplifies the 10 necessary their value proposition. Eric Almquist, Karen Dillon, and David S. Duncan elements. Frank van den Driest, John Senior, and Nicolas Bloch Stan Sthanunathan, and Keith Weed ON THE COVER: ROSEMARY CALVERT/GETTY IMAGES CALVERT/GETTY ROSEMARY ON THE COVER: September 2016 Harvard Business Review 3 HBR.ORG Features September 2016 36 76 82 90 THE BIG IDEA NEGOTIATIONS STRATEGY MANAGING YOURSELF Why Your Company How to Make the Other Putting Products The Scandal Effect Needs a Foreign Policy Side Play Fair into Services The effect of a tainted firm on To navigate the geopolitical Challenge it to final-offer How professional services your résumé may be long- complexities of the modern arbitration, in which firms can improve their offerings lasting—but it can be survived.
    [Show full text]
  • The Economic Club of New York 378 Meeting 97 Year The
    The Economic Club of New York 378th Meeting 97th Year __________________________________ The Honorable John W. Snow U.S. Secretary of the Treasury __________________________________ September 14, 2004 New York Hilton New York City Questioners: Abby Joseph Cohen Managing Director, Goldman Sachs David Malpass Chief Economist, Bear Stearns The Economic Club of New York – John W. Snow – September 14, 2004 Page 1 Introduction Chairman Barbara Hackman Franklin Good evening and welcome. I’m Barbara Hackman Franklin, Chairman of the Economic Club of New York. And it’s my great pleasure to welcome all of you, our members and our guests, to the 378th meeting in the 97th year of the Economic Club of New York. We’re very pleased tonight to have our Treasury Secretary, John Snow, as our guest of honor, and we will hear from him a little later. Our speaking program will begin at the conclusion of our dinner service. And at that time, I’ll introduce Secretary Snow, our two questioners, and we will proceed and will conclude promptly at 9:30 so you all can get home. For now, please enjoy your dinner and your table companions. (DINNER IS SERVED) Chairman Barbara Hackman Franklin: Good evening again. I have the happy task tonight of introducing our most honored guest, the Secretary of the Treasury, John W. Snow. Now as we all know, the Treasury Secretary is the principal economic advisor to the president, developing and recommending both domestic and international financial and economic policy. This focus on economic policy is always of great interest to us, to our members, and we’re delighted whenever we can welcome a Treasury Secretary as our guest of honor.
    [Show full text]
  • 2011 Annual Report
    BROOKINGS EDITors: susan Kellam and Melissa skolfield Copyright ©2011 The Brookings Institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW PRODUCTIoN CoorDINATor: Adrianna Pita Washington, DC 20036 DEsIgN AND PrINT ProductioN: TMg Telephone: 202.797.6000 Jeffrey Kibler, Adriana guevara, Brenda Waugh Fax: 202.797.6004 www.brookings.edu Library of Congress Card Number: 84-641502 Contents 4 20 Economic Studies As America grapples with high Metropolitan Policy Mapping the next economy unemployment, sputtering growth, a federal budget deficit and a still- through trend analyses from the nation’s 100 largest U.S. metropolitan troubled housing market, Economic Studies scholars instilled sound areas, Metropolitan Policy experts have begun to put forth a strategy ideas into the national discourse. for long-term recovery that is driven by exports, powered by low carbon, fueled by innovation and rich with opportunity. 8 Global Economy and Development 24 Sustainable growth requires confronting challenges on many global Impact: From Urgent to Enduring fronts, from trade and financial regulation to persistent poverty and climate change. International scholars in Global Economy and Challenges Brookings strives for impact in at least three Development worked with officials around the world to forge solutions ways: designing policy recommendations, shaping critical debates across geographic barriers. and setting the longer-term policy agenda. In this extraordinary year, the Institution’s scholars contributed significant accomplishments BROOKINGS 12 in all three domains. Foreign Policy When historic events shake the world, as 26 they did this past year, Foreign Policy experts at Brookings can guide U.S. and foreign officials through the policy challenges by navigating Brookings Priorities Brookings finds effective the fast-moving panoramas in Cairo, Tokyo, Athens, Islamabad, solutions to policy problems by coordinating efforts around four Baghdad and other cities erupting in revolution or responding to crisis.
    [Show full text]
  • Marketing Summit New York Hilton Midtown New York, New York March 23-25, 2014
    IRI MARKETING SUMMIT NEW YORK HILTON MIDTOWN NEW YORK, NEW YORK MARCH 23-25, 2014 myIRIonline.org | 1 The most valuable commodity of all? Expert management. VAN ECK VIP GLOBAL HARD ASSETS FUND Oil. Natural Gas. Gold. Copper. Iron. Timber. Commodities investing can be volatile. Prices often vary substantially from one day to the next. That’s why you should consider an established, actively managed fund that strategically invests in commodities-based companies for you. To learn more about the Van Eck VIP Global Hard Assets Fund, contact Susan Marino at 212.293.2094 or [email protected]. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The Fund is subject to risks associated with its investments in hard assets, real estate, precious metals, natural resources, and commodities; events related to these industries; and foreign investments, debt securities, derivatives, commodity-linked instruments, illiquid securities, asset-backed securities, and CMOs, as well as inflation risk, short sales risk, market risk, non-diversification risk, and leverage risk. The Fund is only available as an option under various insurance contracts issued by life insurance and annuity companies. These contracts offer life and tax benefits to the beneficial owners of the Fund. Your insurance or annuity company charges fees and expenses for these benefits. A review of your particular life and/or annuity contract will provide you with much greater detail regarding these costs and benefits. The Fund is not available directly to the general public. For more complete information on variable life/annuity products, including all charges and expenses, please obtain a prospectus from your licensed insurance agent/registered representative.
    [Show full text]
  • October 27, 2000
    July 25, 2002 Dear PCM Client: Wouldn’t it be great if some things could “even out” just a little bit? The best example is the stock market which goes to extremes both up and down causing a lot of grief for many folks, including our ever faithful clients who have suffered along with everyone else during this past quarter. The same goes for the weather. In June, forest fires consumed thousands of acres and hundreds of homes in Colorado and Arizona, while in Minnesota we were inundated with rain and resultant flooding, literally wiping out tiny Roseau, and ruining thousands of acres of crops. Even here in Wayzata we had a very wet June, with many days of severe rain; July is the same. Why can’t this all “even out,” giving some respite to the fires, farmers, and flood victims? Golly, how the residents of Colorado and Arizona could have used the rain that caused all the misery here in Minnesota. And our thought extends further, to emotions. Why can’t the people of the world be more tolerant of each other? It would be wonderful for everyone if it all could just “even out.” PROGRESS IN THE WAR ON TERROR Progress in the war on terror is being made, albeit slowly. Donald Rumsfeld, our Secretary of Defense, had the following to say on this subject recently. “There are knowns. There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns, that is to say there are things we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns, things we do not know we don’t know.” This rhetoric is worse than Greenspan’s.
    [Show full text]
  • March 30–April 1, 2017 New York Hilton Midtown Hotel
    March 30–April 1, 2017 New York Hilton Midtown Hotel QUINNIPIAC G.A.M.E. VII FORUM 1 Welcome to the Quinnipiac G.A.M.E. VII Forum Over the next 2½ days, the seventh annual Quinnipiac Global Asset Management Education (G.A.M.E.) Forum is bringing an international group of current and future leaders from the financial services industry together to explore important developments, challenges and opportunities facing investment professionals within our global financial markets. Industry support for this innovative investment conference is very strong. G.A.M.E. VII Forum co-sponsor Nasdaq and strategic partners CFA Institute, Davidson Investment Advisors, Eagle Asset Management, The Hartford, Interactive Brokers, International Securities Exchange, LPL Financial, Mainstay Capital Management, Morningstar, The Options Industry Council and TD Ameritrade Dr. David A. Sauer are joined by 96 firms and organizations in providing more than 140 keynote speakers, panelists, workshop presenters and student- Founder, Executive Director managed portfolio competition judges. & Program Chair Quinnipiac G.A.M.E. Forum Today, 17 keynote speakers will explore the global markets, corporate governance, global economy and investment strategy. After Professor of Finance the keynote speaker panelists make their initial comments, the Quinnipiac University moderator will welcome questions from students in the audience. This will be your first opportunity to interact with top leaders in the financial services industry. On day two of G.A.M.E., students and faculty will participate in a number of concurrent breakout sessions, including panel discussions, workshop presentations and nine keynote sessions that will explore portfolio management, equity analysis, asset allocation, risk and ethical decision making to name a few.
    [Show full text]
  • Allied Social Science Associations Program
    ALLIED SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATIONS PROGRAM San Diego, CA January 4–6, 2013 Contract negotiations, management and meeting arrangements for ASSA meetings are conducted by the American Economic Association. Participants should be aware that the media has open access to all sessions and events at the meetings. i Thanks to the 2013 American Economic Association Program Committee Members Nicholas Barberis Stefano DellaVigna Kathryn Dominguez Erica Field Don Fullerton Claudia Goldin Mikhail Golosov Gordon Hanson James Hines Seema Jayachandran Anil Kashyap Larry Katz Rosa Matzkin Chris Paxson Nancy Rose Bruce Sacerdote David Weil Justin Wolfers Cover Art—“San Diego, Distant Skyline” by Kevin E. Cahill Oil Pastel and ( Colored Pencil, 15 x 14 . Kevin is a research economist with the Sloan ″ ″ ) Center on Aging and Work at Boston College and a managing director at ECONorthwest in Boise, ID. Kevin invites you to visit his personal website at www.kcahillstudios.com. ii Contents General Information................................iv ASSA Hotels .................................... ix Listing of Advertisers and Exhibitors ............... xxiii ASSA Executive Officers..........................xxv Summary of Sessions by Organization .............. xviii Daily Program of Events ............................1 Program of Sessions Thursday, January 3 .........................27 Friday, January 4 ...........................28 Saturday, January 5 ........................138 Sunday, January 6 .........................252 Subject Area Index...............................329 Index of Participants . 332 iii General Information PROGRAM SCHEDULES A listing of sessions where papers will be presented and another covering activities such as business meetings and receptions are provided in this program. Admittance is limited to those wearing badges. Each listing is arranged chronologically by date and time of the activity; the hotel and room location for each session and function are indicated.
    [Show full text]