Introduction

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs

A Republican Mandate? Results and Consequences of the U.S. Congressional Elections

Michael Kolkmann SWP Comments

The U.S. Congressional Elections brought about an important victory for the Republi- can party, increasing its majority in both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Rep- resentatives. This, however, does not automatically lead to enhanced cooperation between the White House and Capitol Hill. Just the opposite seems likely: we could see new conflicts between both sides on various issues, ranging from judicial nomina- tions to tax policy. Accordingly, the success of the second Bush-Administration will depend on its ability to win support for its policies in Congress.

Following his reelection on November 2, rity in the House. However, political obser- 2004, President Bush announced in his first vers presumed that the Democrats could post-election press conference that the at least manage to cut the size of that voters had given him new political capital majority since they had managed to do and that he intended to spend it as fast as so in every election since the Republicans possible in order to implement his political gained control of Congress in 1994, sending agenda. In this context he mentioned his Democrats to the opposition bench after party’s increased majorities in both houses forty years as majority party. This time, of the U.S. Congress. Why were the Repub- however, the Democrats failed to even licans able to increase their seats in Con- reach this goal. Even worse, they lost gress? What political profile do these new several seats to their Republican counter- majorities have? And what do they mean parts. All in all, the Republicans won four for the work of the 109th Congress, sched- additional seats, giving them a majority of uled to convene in January 2005, and for 233 to 201 seats. 218 votes are necessary the interaction of the President and Con- to pass a bill. One seat is still being held by gress in Bush’s second term? Independent of Vermont.

The House after the election Limited Competitiveness Since the beginning of the 2004 electoral Only 35 of the 435 House districts were campaign, it seemed almost impossible for competitive in the 2004 electoral season, the Republicans to lose their narrow majo- meaning that both parties had a good

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1 chance to win the district. In an additional ensure an equal number of voters in every 29 districts the incumbent was heavily district. It turned out that the redistricting favored, leaving 371 districts in which the process in Texas resulted in grave conse- incumbents weren’t threatened at all. The quence for the 2004 election results. Its Democrats had only one chance to win the state legislature, controlled by the Repub- majority in the House: to win all competi- lican party, used a plan set up by House tive seats and defend their own vulnerable Majority Leader Tom DeLay to redraw the incumbents. This scenario didn’t material- lines to the Republicans’benefit since ize. The 2004 election saw a continuation Democratic incumbents were given more of a trend which started several electoral heavily Republican districts. Of the five cycles ago. In 2000 there were 50 competi- Democratic incumbents that suffered tive seats, in 1992 100. But in 2004, the defeat in the 2004 election, four lost their representatives in only twelve districts won seats in Texas. This newly drawn plan of with a majority of less than 10 per cent of House districts in Texas and its compatibil- the votes. Because of the increasingly homo- ity with constitutional norms is currently geneity of most districts, today the real being revised by the U.S. Supreme Court in selection happens in the primaries, not in Washington. the general election. This leads to a more prominent standing of the rather leftist candidates in the Democratic party and the Partisan Politics more right-wing candidates in the Republi- During the 2004 campaign, the Republi- can party, because candidates have to suc- cans stressed almost exclusively the politi- ceed in getting the nomination from their cal priorities of the Bush administration, party’s base. Once the primary is won, the particularly the tax cuts enacted during the winning candidates can be pretty sure to first term of President Bush, the Medicare win the general election as well. bill passed in December 2003 and the ‘Leave no child behind-law’, which was President Bush’s number one priority in education Incumbents’advantages policy. According to House Majority Leader The relatively high reelection rates in the Tom DeLay the election of 2004 was a “con- House of Representatives are based on two firmation and expansion of the Republican elements: the advantages of being an in- agenda. With a bigger mandate, we can do cumbent and a nationwide, regularly sched- even more exciting things.” His colleague uled redistricting of the district lines. Mike Pence from Indiana interpreted the (1) Compared to their challengers, result as “mandate for national conserva- incumbents enjoy important advantages: tive leadership.” The strict parliamentary they have a greater visibility in their dis- rules in the House of Representatives will tricts and can lay a hand on important allow the conservative and hierarchical financial resources for district offices, free organized leadership team of the Republi- mailings and federal subsidies for projects can party to continue the political course of in their districts. On the one hand, this year the last four years. 47 incumbents raised more than $1 million for their race. On the other hand, the chal- lengers in 21 districts had less then $10,000 The Senate after the 2004 election for the last four weeks of the campaign. At the beginning of the 2004 electoral sea- (2) Even more important than the advan- son, the situation of the GOP in the Senate tages of being an incumbent is the process looked comfortable. Out of the 34 seats that of redistricting. Based on the results of the were up for reelection in 2004, the Demo- general census, every ten years the lines of crats had to defend 19 seats, the Republi- the districts are being redrawn in order to cans only 15. Five Democratic Senators had

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2 already announced that they would not Representative . Just two years seek reelection this year. These five open ago, Thune had lost a first Senate bid seats were all in Southern states, a region against the other South Dakotan Senator, that has grown to be dominantly Republi- Tim Johnson, by 524 votes. This time, can over the past few decades. While the Thune won by a margin of 51 to 49 percent. electoral campaign was underway, it Daschle is the first Senate leader who lost became obvious that the Democratic can- a reelection bid in 52 years, when Barry didates in a number of Senate races proved Goldwater upset Democratic Senator and to be stronger than expected, so that a Majority Leader Ernest William McFarland 50:50-Senate or even a Democratic majority in 1952. suddenly didn’t look out of reach anymore. Similar to their colleagues in the House, In Illinois, for example, state Senator Senators enjoy a huge financial advantage managed to win the seat compared to their challengers. The Repub- formerly held by a Republican by a decisive lican Senator from Ohio, George Voinovich, margin. Obama gained a nationwide repu- for example had $4.2 million to spend in tation earlier this year by giving an im- his campaign; his Democratic counterpart pressive speech at the Democratic National collected just $93,000. Democratic Senator Convention. He is only the third black from Nevada had $3.3 million in Senator in Senate history. In Colorado, the bank; his Republican challenger was Democrat Ken Salazar won the election with just $15,000 far from being competi- only by a margin, beating beer magnate tive. In addition to the expenditures by Peter Coors by 51 to 49 percent. Salazar is the respective Senators, the two political the first Hispanic member in the Senate parties spend $70 million for the 34 races. in 25 years. Combined with the expenditures by the To gain a majority of seats in the Senate, various interest groups, the Senate cam- Democrats had to do well in eight close paigns ate up $600 million this year. races. But the Republicans managed to win all eight races: Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oklahoma, The leadership teams in the Senate South Carolina and South Dakota. In these While the Republican leadership remained states, President Bush won the presidential largely unchanged following the 2004 election by 17 points on average, providing election, the Democratic side saw—due to strong coattails for Republican candidates Minority Leader Daschle’s defeat—several down the ballot running for Senate and changes. Harry Reid from was House seats. In several states, for example elected new Minority Leader by his col- in South Dakota, these coattails were leagues. Richard Durbin from Illinois was enough to put the Republican challenger selected as new Minority Whip. on top. On the Republican side, Bill Frist from In the new Senate, which is due to take Tennessee remains in his position as Majo- office in early January, the Republicans rity Leader. He will be supported by Mitch control a majority of 55 seats. The Democ- McConnell from Kentucky as Majority rats have 44 seats, plus the seat held by Whip, as he was in previous years. In two Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords, who left the years, however, the Republican leadership Republican party in the spring of 2001 to will undergo several changes, as Majority become officially an Independent and Leader Frist will retire following the con- usually votes in line with his Democratic gressional election in November 2006. colleagues. Rumor has it that he intends to run for The Democratic party was particularly President in 2008. During the next two upset by the loss of their Minority Leader years, possible successors may position in his race against former themselves in order to take the position

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3 of Majority Leader following Frist’s depar- Political profile of the new Senate ture. This development will diminish the The congressional election has changed the bipartisan cooperation even further as it Republican caucus in the Senate both in has done so in the past. terms of quantity and quality. Not only did An important part will be played by the the Republicans manage to increase the chairman of the Judiciary committee when size of their majority, but a look at the it comes down to judicial nominations and voting records of the newly elected Senate other critical questions like abortion and members shows that this majority became same-sex marriages. from at the same time more conservative. While Pennsylvania is the leading contender for being members of the House, Tom Coburn this post, because the current chairman, (Oklahoma), Johnny Isakson (Georgia), John from Utah, is not allowed to Thune (South Dakota) and John DeMint carry on as chairman due to a six-year term (South Carolina) received conservative ran- limits for their chairman implemented by kings between 70 and 100 percent on the the Republicans back in the 1990s. After Liberal/Conservative ranking scale com- some debate about Specter’s role in possible piled by the National Journal. Moreover, judicial nomination cases, once he becomes they received rankings of partly 100 per- chairman, he seems unopposed for now. cent on major legislation scorecards com- Following the election, Specter said that piled by conservative groups like the Amer- under his chairmanship, there will not be ican Conservative Union (ACU). Richard any litmus tests for possible contenders on Burr, winner of the North Carolina Senate the issue of abortion. This aroused broad race against former Clinton White House criticism by colleagues and particularly Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles, voted during groups affiliated with the Christian Right. his tenure in the House in 96 percent of all James Dobson for example, president of decisions with President Bush’s priorities. Focus on the Family, one of the most in- His colleague David Vitter, who is the fluential groups on the right, declared pub- first Republican to win a Senate seat from licly that Specter’s nomination as Judiciary Louisiana since reconstruction, voted in 99 chairman would pose “a problem” and percent of all decisions with his party. The must therefore be prevented. Only after newly elected Senator from Florida, Cuban- Specter redefined his position and affirmed born Mel Martinez, will be an important that he will support all candidates that ally for President Bush as well, since President Bush sends to Capitol Hill for a Martinez served in Bush’s cabinet during nomination, did his colleagues in the his first term. This newly assembled group Judiciary Committee support his elevation of freshman Senators will complicate the the committee’s chairmanship. This epi- parliamentary process in the Senate, since sode could be an early indication to what they will hinder too far-reaching com- extent conservative groups will try to push promise building. In critical decisions, they through their political agenda in the com- will probably prefer to vote along ideologi- ing years, after claiming to have played a cal lines instead of calculations based on critical role in President Bush’s successful partisan and tactical considerations. They reelection. This raises the question of how will also work to further diminish the in- much influence moderate Senators will be fluence of moderate Republican Senators, able to exert in the 109th Congress and how for example from East Coast states. 55 seats large their maneuvering room will be com- hand the Republican leadership such an pared to the White House and its ally in the overriding majority that, in important Senate, the Republican leadership. decisions, it can risk losing centrist and more middle-of-the-road votes like by from Rhode Island or John McCain from .

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4 On the Democratic side, the new caucus The parliamentary proceedings tends to be more leftist than in recent Despite their gains, the Republicans have years. Centrist Democrats lost important not reached the critical number of votes representatives with John Breaux of Louis- important for the Senate proceedings: with iana and Fritz Hollings from South Carolina 60 votes it is possible to end a filibuster. A who decided not to seek another term. filibuster is an extremely long speech used Taken together, this implies that the par- primarily to stall the political process in tisan poles in the Senate will be strength- the Senate and thus delay or even derail a ened by the election results, the vital specific legislative bill. In most cases it is political center, however, will be weakened. held by a member of the minority party in The common ground of centrists in both the Senate. While a Senator is filibustering, parties, Democrats and Republicans alike, other Senators are trying to hammer out a who generally work together to enhance a compromise that would address the fili- common sense agenda, seems to have dis- bustering Senator’s concerns. A filibuster is appeared. If there is any cooperation at all based on the, compared to the rules of the between the two sides in the upcoming House, mostly liberal rules of the Senate years, it will be limited to specific policy which does not provide for a specific limit areas and, even more, to specific legis- for any speeches held on the Senate floor. lative bills. Under Senate rules, the speech does not have to be related to the bill the Senator tries to stop. A filibuster can be stopped by Advantages of the majority party sixty Senators. However, such a vote has to The majority party in the Senate has quite be scheduled days in advance, so that the a number of tools available in order to im- filibustering Senator can go on with his plement its majority status. Following an speech for quite some time. agreement of both political parties, the The number of sixty votes is for the majority party enjoys financial and per- Senate’s Republican leadership even further sonal resources that are about thirty per- out of reach, as the leadership cannot be cent larger than those for the minority sure to have the support of all 55 votes party. Committee chairmanships will not they currently have. Since there is no “party be distributed proportionally according to discipline” in the Senate as there is for the strengths of the respective parties, as it example in the German Bundestag, Sena- is done for example in the German Bundes- tors are free to vote. Usually, they vote first tag; instead, the majority party gets all according to their district’s needs and con- chairmanships. This is of great importance cerns, and only second according to their for the parliamentary process, since it is the party leaders’ preferences, meaning that chairman who dominates his committee’s usually very moderate or very conservative agenda. It is up to him whether the com- members of the Republican caucus do not mittee takes up a legislative bill and, if the vote with the majority of their colleagues. chairman chooses to do so, how he struc- So it is not surprising that the Republi- tures the political process in which the bill can leadership is currently considering is under consideration. He sets the daily rewriting the rules governing the Senate’s agenda, extends invitations to hearings and proceedings. Several Senators have already selects the experts who will give testimony expressed their dismay with the seniority on a specific bill before the committee. He principle, which usually gives a chairman- also decides which bills will get a vote, with ship to that Senator of the majority party which recommendations a bill is passed in who has the longest uninterrupted tenure committee and whether a bill will be for- in that specific committee. These Senators warded to the full House. would like the leadership to distribute the respective committee chairmanships, thus

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5 strengthening the leadership’s grip on the prove helpful for President Bush that al- Senators, rewarding leadership-friendly most all members of the Republican leader- behavior by the Senators and possibly ship teams in Congress are very conserva- sanctioning critical stances that are not tive. Senator from Pennsyl- shared by members of the leadership. vania, for example, encouraged the Demo- Facing an even bigger majority than they crats to finally realize that they lost their did before the election, some Republicans majority status ten years ago and that they are pressing to add one Republican seat to don’t have the say anymore. The Senate, each of the Senate committees, therefore Santorum continued, swung to the right reflecting the changed majority situation in with the election of 2004, and this was the the Senate. This would give the leadership direction the voters wanted. The increased as well as the committee chairmen more authority of the President following the leeway in passing rather controversial bills. election and the bigger Republican majo- This would prove particularly important in rities in House and Senate could indeed the case of possible judicial nominations in increase the possibility of passing legisla- the future. Since Republican members of tive bills more easily. This could prove par- the Judiciary committee opposed to Presi- ticularly true for bills that went nowhere dent Bush’s nominations are losing, rela- in the 108th Congress, for example a contro- tively speaking, influence in the face of a versial energy bill that would allow drilling bigger majority on the committee, it will be in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in harder for them to stop controversial Alaska that didn’t get passed due to con- choices by the president. Last but not least cerns voiced by Democratic Senators. the Republican leadership is discussing Another policy area that could see renewed changes in the parliamentary rules of the activity is the question of possible financial Senate to be better able to prevent possible limits in malpractice cases which was filibusters in the future, for example by another bill Republicans couldn’t muster the Democrats who are opposed to Presi- enough votes to pass. dent Bush’s judicial nominations or his The reach of this new Republican man- proposed restructuring of the Social date is not universally shared by all mem- Security system. These modifications of bers of the Republican caucuses in Con- rules currently under consideration will, gress. Jon Kyl for example, Republican once they are indeed implemented, change Senator from Arizona, warned immediately the basic parliamentary process in the after the election not to over interpret the Senate and will make the Senate’s proceed- mandate. President Bush and his party may ings more rigid like they are in the House. have a mandate for the war on terrorism and the Iraq war, since these issues played dominantly in the election campaign. To th Policy areas of the 109 Congress assume, according to Kyl, a farther reaching Shortly after the election of 2004, influen- mandate that could possibly include domes- tial Republican members of Congress have tic reforms like Social Security, tax cuts or encouraged President Bush to spend his social issues would be a misinterpretation political capital that he gained in his of the mandate issued by the American electoral victory to implement his political voters. Kyl added that he would wish for agenda as far-reaching and as fast as pos- such a mandate, but Bush and his party sible. They base their advice on results of just didn’t have it. the exit polls. These exit polls showed that The domestic agenda set by President 20 percent of all voters cast their vote Bush for his second term and therefore the primarily due to “moral values.” Out of agenda for legislative deliberations in Con- these 20 percent, 80 percent of the respon- gress consists of a variety of topics that are dents voted for President Bush. It could

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6 even controversial among Republicans quist will retire in the coming months, themselves: leaving open not only a spot for a new Social Security. According to President justice, but also the position of Chief Justice Bush, the reform of the Social Security as well. The question of judicial nomina- system tops his domestic agenda for the tions is one that is closely followed by coming years. According to ideas that are groups of the Religious right. They demand being pitched by the Administration, that any new justices pass a litmus test on younger workers should be able to pay part abortion-related questions. For Bush, this of their income into private Social Security presents a dilemma: he could either satisfy accounts. This proposal is based on recom- his political base by nominating a conserva- mendations by a bipartisan commission tive justice or, following his 2000 campaign chaired by former New York Senator Patrick pledge to act as “a uniter, not a divider,” he Moynihan that was established by President could try to attract moderate candidates Bush in 2001 to study different reform that will also find the support of moderate options. The projected costs for this project Republicans and even Democrats. The amount to $2 billion spread out over the Supreme Court nomination of a strict abor- next ten years. The recommendations by tion foe would in any case arouse grave the Moynihan-Commission were harshly criticism among the Democratic members criticized by Democrats who see the issue of of Congress and their allies beyond Capitol Social Security due to historical and ideo- Hill. During the first four years of the Bush logical reasons as part of the Democratic Administration, the Democrats already legacy. For President Bush, the reform of filibustered and therefore blocked ten can- Social Security is the first step in establish- didates nominated by President Bush for ing what he called during the campaign the lower Federal Courts. Ownership Society. According to this con- Moral issues. An issue that already failed cept, the individual should carry more of once in the last Congress could return to the burden imposed by the existing pension the political agenda, now that the Repub- and healthcare programs. How this Owner- licans have bigger majorities than before ship Society should be specifically organ- the election: the question of amending the ized remained unclear during the course of constitution to ban same-sex marriages. In the 2004 campaign. July 2004, a legislative bill proposing this Taxes. A second legislative priority for Presi- amendment failed in the Senate when it dent Bush is the reform of the current tax only garnered support of 48 senators. To system in order to make it easier to under- pass, the amendment would need a two- stand and more effective to use. It remains thirds majority in both chambers of Con- to be seen whether Bush prefers some gress and a three-fourth majority among kind of a flat tax or a more consumption- the fifty states of the US. With 55 seats in oriented tax. During the campaign he the Senate, Republicans miss the requisite limited his ideas on his subject to the state- number of votes (67) for such an amend- ment that he’s planning to establish a ment by far. The public visibility of this commission to study different tax policy issue in the election was promoted when proposals right after the election. voters in eleven states had to vote in Judicial nominations. One of the first chal- a referendum whether to ban same-sex lenges coming up for the Bush administra- marriages. tion in its second term could be the nomi- Faith-based initiatives. Bush could also try nation of a new justice for the U.S. Supreme to reinvigorate a project that belonged to Court. In October 2004, the Court announ- the priorities for his first term until it ran ced that Chief Justice, William H. Rehn- into trouble on Capitol Hill: the question of quist, was suffering from cancer. Political faith-based initiatives, where religious observers already speculate whether Rehn- groups are empowered to take over many

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7 social tasks the government is currently the president can therefore not count prima performing. This project failed in the facie on a supporting majority. Instead, he Senate, when Senators voiced concerns has to try to build legislative coalitions, one about possibly violating the separation of bill at a time, on both sides of the aisle. church and state. The current constellation of power dis- tribution let it appear possible that the In all of the mentioned policy areas it will basic division between the executive and be important for fiscal conservative Repub- the legislative branches will be blurred. licans that any new initiatives will not be Moreover, in the current situation the too expensive, considering that the budget Republicans, aided by their bigger majori- deficit currently stands at $414 billion and ties in Congress, could exercise far-reaching that the public debt amounts to $7.4 tril- influence on the third branch of govern- lion. These concerns are not new: already ment, the Supreme Court, therefore in- in the final year of Bush’s first term Repub- fluencing American politics for a long time

© Stiftung Wissenschaft und licans in the Senate criticized the admini- to come. Politik, 2004 stration for running up a huge deficit. The Democrats will try hard during the All rights reserved Instead of promoting some of the above- next two years to confront the Republicans

SWP mentioned domestic and moral priorities, in Congress as well as the Bush Administra- Stiftung Wissenschaft und it is feasible that the fiscal conservatives in tion aggressively in order to stress basic Politik German Institute for the Republican party will stress economic differences in their respective political pro- International and and budgetary issues, therefore furthering grams and to offer voters a sharp contrast Security Affairs the intraparty split in the Republican party. between the two parties. However, this Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 This would also mean increased possibili- course has been also widely criticized 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 ties of conflict with conservative groups among the Democrats in recent months Fax +49 30 880 07-100 outside Congress who claim that it was they and, as some critics argue, has led to the www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] who helped President Bush to win a second electoral defeat of their Minority Leader term. Tom Daschle. In the eyes of many voters, according to these critics, Daschle ob- structed too many policy proposals offered Conclusion by President Bush and hindered the imple- During the first four years of the Bush mentation of Bush’s political agenda. The administration, the Republican members of most important questions for the Democ- Congress saw their role primarily in sup- rats therefore are whether, how and when porting the President’s agenda rather to present their own proposals and to fight then being independent players within for them and when to compromise with the American political system. It is widely their Republican counterparts and the assumed that this is unlikely to change administration. in Bush’s second term. For President Bush the window of oppor- According to the U.S. constitution, in tunity for implementing his agenda is the presidential political system the execu- closing fast. Starting in early 2006, mem- tive and the legislative stand opposed in bers of Congress will start preparing for an antagonistic partnership that is often their reelection campaigns for the midterm described as a system of checks and bal- elections in November 2006. Starting with ances, while in parliamentary systems like these midterm elections, quite a number Germany’s the government is elected by the of Senators will begin to organize their majority of the parliament and therefore respective presidential campaigns for the must count on the continued support of elections in 2008. Therefore it is safe to its parliamentary majority. But since the assume that the most important decisions American president and Congress are sep- in President Bush’s second term will be arately elected by the American electorate, made in the upcoming year 2005.

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