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Artificial Intelligence in Health Care: the Hope, the Hype, the Promise, the Peril
Artificial Intelligence in Health Care: The Hope, the Hype, the Promise, the Peril Michael Matheny, Sonoo Thadaney Israni, Mahnoor Ahmed, and Danielle Whicher, Editors WASHINGTON, DC NAM.EDU PREPUBLICATION COPY - Uncorrected Proofs NATIONAL ACADEMY OF MEDICINE • 500 Fifth Street, NW • WASHINGTON, DC 20001 NOTICE: This publication has undergone peer review according to procedures established by the National Academy of Medicine (NAM). Publication by the NAM worthy of public attention, but does not constitute endorsement of conclusions and recommendationssignifies that it is the by productthe NAM. of The a carefully views presented considered in processthis publication and is a contributionare those of individual contributors and do not represent formal consensus positions of the authors’ organizations; the NAM; or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data to Come Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: Matheny, M., S. Thadaney Israni, M. Ahmed, and D. Whicher, Editors. 2019. Artificial Intelligence in Health Care: The Hope, the Hype, the Promise, the Peril. NAM Special Publication. Washington, DC: National Academy of Medicine. PREPUBLICATION COPY - Uncorrected Proofs “Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.” --GOETHE PREPUBLICATION COPY - Uncorrected Proofs ABOUT THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF MEDICINE The National Academy of Medicine is one of three Academies constituting the Nation- al Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies). The Na- tional Academies provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. -
Artificial Intelligence: with Great Power Comes Great Responsibility
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: WITH GREAT POWER COMES GREAT RESPONSIBILITY JOINT HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY & SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION JUNE 26, 2018 Serial No. 115–67 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 30–877PDF WASHINGTON : 2018 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HON. LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas, Chair FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas DANA ROHRABACHER, California ZOE LOFGREN, California MO BROOKS, Alabama DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois RANDY HULTGREN, Illinois SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon BILL POSEY, Florida AMI BERA, California THOMAS MASSIE, Kentucky ELIZABETH H. ESTY, Connecticut RANDY K. WEBER, Texas MARC A. VEASEY, Texas STEPHEN KNIGHT, California DONALD S. BEYER, JR., Virginia BRIAN BABIN, Texas JACKY ROSEN, Nevada BARBARA COMSTOCK, Virginia CONOR LAMB, Pennsylvania BARRY LOUDERMILK, Georgia JERRY MCNERNEY, California RALPH LEE ABRAHAM, Louisiana ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado GARY PALMER, Alabama PAUL TONKO, New York DANIEL WEBSTER, Florida BILL FOSTER, Illinois ANDY BIGGS, Arizona MARK TAKANO, California ROGER W. MARSHALL, Kansas COLLEEN HANABUSA, Hawaii NEAL P. DUNN, Florida CHARLIE CRIST, Florida CLAY HIGGINS, Louisiana RALPH NORMAN, South Carolina DEBBIE LESKO, Arizona SUBCOMMITTEE ON RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY HON. BARBARA COMSTOCK, Virginia, Chair FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois RANDY HULTGREN, Illinois ELIZABETH H. ESTY, Connecticut STEPHEN KNIGHT, California JACKY ROSEN, Nevada BARRY LOUDERMILK, Georgia SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon DANIEL WEBSTER, Florida AMI BERA, California ROGER W. MARSHALL, Kansas DONALD S. BEYER, JR., Virginia DEBBIE LESKO, Arizona EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas LAMAR S. -
AI Computer Wraps up 4-1 Victory Against Human Champion Nature Reports from Alphago's Victory in Seoul
The Go Files: AI computer wraps up 4-1 victory against human champion Nature reports from AlphaGo's victory in Seoul. Tanguy Chouard 15 March 2016 SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA Google DeepMind Lee Sedol, who has lost 4-1 to AlphaGo. Tanguy Chouard, an editor with Nature, saw Google-DeepMind’s AI system AlphaGo defeat a human professional for the first time last year at the ancient board game Go. This week, he is watching top professional Lee Sedol take on AlphaGo, in Seoul, for a $1 million prize. It’s all over at the Four Seasons Hotel in Seoul, where this morning AlphaGo wrapped up a 4-1 victory over Lee Sedol — incidentally, earning itself and its creators an honorary '9-dan professional' degree from the Korean Baduk Association. After winning the first three games, Google-DeepMind's computer looked impregnable. But the last two games may have revealed some weaknesses in its makeup. Game four totally changed the Go world’s view on AlphaGo’s dominance because it made it clear that the computer can 'bug' — or at least play very poor moves when on the losing side. It was obvious that Lee felt under much less pressure than in game three. And he adopted a different style, one based on taking large amounts of territory early on rather than immediately going for ‘street fighting’ such as making threats to capture stones. This style – called ‘amashi’ – seems to have paid off, because on move 78, Lee produced a play that somehow slipped under AlphaGo’s radar. David Silver, a scientist at DeepMind who's been leading the development of AlphaGo, said the program estimated its probability as 1 in 10,000. -
In-Datacenter Performance Analysis of a Tensor Processing Unit
In-Datacenter Performance Analysis of a Tensor Processing Unit Presented by Josh Fried Background: Machine Learning Neural Networks: ● Multi Layer Perceptrons ● Recurrent Neural Networks (mostly LSTMs) ● Convolutional Neural Networks Synapse - each edge, has a weight Neuron - each node, sums weights and uses non-linear activation function over sum Propagating inputs through a layer of the NN is a matrix multiplication followed by an activation Background: Machine Learning Two phases: ● Training (offline) ○ relaxed deadlines ○ large batches to amortize costs of loading weights from DRAM ○ well suited to GPUs ○ Usually uses floating points ● Inference (online) ○ strict deadlines: 7-10ms at Google for some workloads ■ limited possibility for batching because of deadlines ○ Facebook uses CPUs for inference (last class) ○ Can use lower precision integers (faster/smaller/more efficient) ML Workloads @ Google 90% of ML workload time at Google spent on MLPs and LSTMs, despite broader focus on CNNs RankBrain (search) Inception (image classification), Google Translate AlphaGo (and others) Background: Hardware Trends End of Moore’s Law & Dennard Scaling ● Moore - transistor density is doubling every two years ● Dennard - power stays proportional to chip area as transistors shrink Machine Learning causing a huge growth in demand for compute ● 2006: Excess CPU capacity in datacenters is enough ● 2013: Projected 3 minutes per-day per-user of speech recognition ○ will require doubling datacenter compute capacity! Google’s Answer: Custom ASIC Goal: Build a chip that improves cost-performance for NN inference What are the main costs? Capital Costs Operational Costs (power bill!) TPU (V1) Design Goals Short design-deployment cycle: ~15 months! Plugs in to PCIe slot on existing servers Accelerates matrix multiplication operations Uses 8-bit integer operations instead of floating point How does the TPU work? CISC instructions, issued by host. -
Deepfakes & Disinformation
DEEPFAKES & DISINFORMATION DEEPFAKES & DISINFORMATION Agnieszka M. Walorska ANALYSISANALYSE 2 DEEPFAKES & DISINFORMATION IMPRINT Publisher Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom Karl-Marx-Straße 2 14482 Potsdam Germany /freiheit.org /FriedrichNaumannStiftungFreiheit /FNFreiheit Author Agnieszka M. Walorska Editors International Department Global Themes Unit Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom Concept and layout TroNa GmbH Contact Phone: +49 (0)30 2201 2634 Fax: +49 (0)30 6908 8102 Email: [email protected] As of May 2020 Photo Credits Photomontages © Unsplash.de, © freepik.de, P. 30 © AdobeStock Screenshots P. 16 © https://youtu.be/mSaIrz8lM1U P. 18 © deepnude.to / Agnieszka M. Walorska P. 19 © thispersondoesnotexist.com P. 19 © linkedin.com P. 19 © talktotransformer.com P. 25 © gltr.io P. 26 © twitter.com All other photos © Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (Germany) P. 31 © Agnieszka M. Walorska Notes on using this publication This publication is an information service of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom. The publication is available free of charge and not for sale. It may not be used by parties or election workers during the purpose of election campaigning (Bundestags-, regional and local elections and elections to the European Parliament). Licence Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 DEEPFAKES & DISINFORMATION DEEPFAKES & DISINFORMATION 3 4 DEEPFAKES & DISINFORMATION CONTENTS Table of contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 GLOSSARY 8 1.0 STATE OF DEVELOPMENT ARTIFICIAL -
Towards Incremental Agent Enhancement for Evolving Games
Evaluating Reinforcement Learning Algorithms For Evolving Military Games James Chao*, Jonathan Sato*, Crisrael Lucero, Doug S. Lange Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific *Equal Contribution ffi[email protected] Abstract games in 2013 (Mnih et al. 2013), Google DeepMind devel- oped AlphaGo (Silver et al. 2016) that defeated world cham- In this paper, we evaluate reinforcement learning algorithms pion Lee Sedol in the game of Go using supervised learning for military board games. Currently, machine learning ap- and reinforcement learning. One year later, AlphaGo Zero proaches to most games assume certain aspects of the game (Silver et al. 2017b) was able to defeat AlphaGo with no remain static. This methodology results in a lack of algorithm robustness and a drastic drop in performance upon chang- human knowledge and pure reinforcement learning. Soon ing in-game mechanics. To this end, we will evaluate general after, AlphaZero (Silver et al. 2017a) generalized AlphaGo game playing (Diego Perez-Liebana 2018) AI algorithms on Zero to be able to play more games including Chess, Shogi, evolving military games. and Go, creating a more generalized AI to apply to differ- ent problems. In 2018, OpenAI Five used five Long Short- term Memory (Hochreiter and Schmidhuber 1997) neural Introduction networks and a Proximal Policy Optimization (Schulman et al. 2017) method to defeat a professional DotA team, each AlphaZero (Silver et al. 2017a) described an approach that LSTM acting as a player in a team to collaborate and achieve trained an AI agent through self-play to achieve super- a common goal. AlphaStar used a transformer (Vaswani et human performance. -
Game Playing with Deep Q-Learning Using Openai Gym
Game Playing with Deep Q-Learning using OpenAI Gym Robert Chuchro Deepak Gupta [email protected] [email protected] Abstract sociated with performing a particular action in a given state. This information is fundamental to any reinforcement learn- Historically, designing game players requires domain- ing problem. specific knowledge of the particular game to be integrated The input to our model will be a sequence of pixel im- into the model for the game playing program. This leads ages as arrays (Width x Height x 3) generated by a particular to a program that can only learn to play a single particu- OpenAI Gym environment. We then use a Deep Q-Network lar game successfully. In this project, we explore the use of to output a action from the action space of the game. The general AI techniques, namely reinforcement learning and output that the model will learn is an action from the envi- neural networks, in order to architect a model which can ronments action space in order to maximize future reward be trained on more than one game. Our goal is to progress from a given state. In this paper, we explore using a neural from a simple convolutional neural network with a couple network with multiple convolutional layers as our model. fully connected layers, to experimenting with more complex additions, such as deeper layers or recurrent neural net- 2. Related Work works. The best known success story of classical reinforcement learning is TD-gammon, a backgammon playing program 1. Introduction which learned entirely by reinforcement learning [6]. TD- gammon used a model-free reinforcement learning algo- Game playing has recently emerged as a popular play- rithm similar to Q-learning. -
DEEP LEARNING TECHNOLOGIES for AI Considérations
DEEP LEARNING TECHNOLOGIES FOR AI Marc Duranton CEA Tech (Leti and List) Considérations énergétiques de l’IA et perspectives Marc Duranton CEA Fellow 22 Septembre 2020 Séminaire INS2I- Systèmes et architectures intégrées matériel-logiciel pour l’intelligence artificielle KEY ELEMENTS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE “…as soon as it works, no one calls it AI anymore.” “AI is whatever hasn't been done yet” John McCarthy, AI D. Hofstadter (1980) who coined the term “Artificial Intelligence” in 1956 Traditional AI, Analysis of Optimization of energy symbolic, “big data” in datacenters algorithms Data rules… analytics “Classical” approaches ML-based AI: Our focus today: to reduce energy consumption Bayesian, … - Considerations on state of the art systems Deep (learninG + inference) Learning* - Edge computing ( inference, federated learning, * Reinforcement Learning, One-shot Learning, Generative Adversarial Networks, etc… neuromorphic) From Greg. S. Corrado, Google brain team co-founder: – “Traditional AI systems are programmed to be clever – Modern ML-based AI systems learn to be clever. | 2 CONTEXT AND HISTORY: STATE-OF-THE-ART SYSTEMS 2012: DEEP NEURAL NETWORKS RISE AGAIN They give the state-of-the-art performance e.g. in image classification • ImageNet classification (Hinton’s team, hired by Google) • 14,197,122 images, 1,000 different classes • Top-5 17% error rate (huge improvement) in 2012 (now ~ 3.5%) “Supervision” network Year: 2012 650,000 neurons 60,000,000 parameters 630,000,000 synapses • Facebook’s ‘DeepFace’ Program (labs headed by Y. LeCun) • 4.4 millionThe images, 2018 Turing4,030 identities Award recipients are Google VP Geoffrey Hinton, • 97.35% accuracy,Facebook's vs.Yann 97.53% LeCun humanand performanceYoshua Bengio, Scientific Director of AI research center Mila. -
Reinforcement Learning with Tensorflow&Openai
Lecture 1: Introduction Reinforcement Learning with TensorFlow&OpenAI Gym Sung Kim <[email protected]> http://angelpawstherapy.org/positive-reinforcement-dog-training.html Nature of Learning • We learn from past experiences. - When an infant plays, waves its arms, or looks about, it has no explicit teacher - But it does have direct interaction to its environment. • Years of positive compliments as well as negative criticism have all helped shape who we are today. • Reinforcement learning: computational approach to learning from interaction. Richard Sutton and Andrew Barto, Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction Nishant Shukla , Machine Learning with TensorFlow Reinforcement Learning https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~eladlieb/RLRG.html Machine Learning, Tom Mitchell, 1997 Atari Breakout Game (2013, 2015) Atari Games Nature : Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning, Nature http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v518/n7540/full/nature14236.html Figure courtesy of Mnih et al. "Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning”, Nature 26 Feb. 2015 https://deepmind.com/blog/deep-reinforcement-learning/ https://deepmind.com/applied/deepmind-for-google/ Reinforcement Learning Applications • Robotics: torque at joints • Business operations - Inventory management: how much to purchase of inventory, spare parts - Resource allocation: e.g. in call center, who to service first • Finance: Investment decisions, portfolio design • E-commerce/media - What content to present to users (using click-through / visit time as reward) - What ads to present to users (avoiding ad fatigue) Audience • Want to understand basic reinforcement learning (RL) • No/weak math/computer science background - Q = r + Q • Want to use RL as black-box with basic understanding • Want to use TensorFlow and Python (optional labs) Schedule 1. -
Understanding & Generalizing Alphago Zero
Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2019 UNDERSTANDING &GENERALIZING ALPHAGO ZERO Anonymous authors Paper under double-blind review ABSTRACT AlphaGo Zero (AGZ) (Silver et al., 2017b) introduced a new tabula rasa rein- forcement learning algorithm that has achieved superhuman performance in the games of Go, Chess, and Shogi with no prior knowledge other than the rules of the game. This success naturally begs the question whether it is possible to develop similar high-performance reinforcement learning algorithms for generic sequential decision-making problems (beyond two-player games), using only the constraints of the environment as the “rules.” To address this challenge, we start by taking steps towards developing a formal understanding of AGZ. AGZ includes two key innovations: (1) it learns a policy (represented as a neural network) using super- vised learning with cross-entropy loss from samples generated via Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS); (2) it uses self-play to learn without training data. We argue that the self-play in AGZ corresponds to learning a Nash equilibrium for the two-player game; and the supervised learning with MCTS is attempting to learn the policy corresponding to the Nash equilibrium, by establishing a novel bound on the difference between the expected return achieved by two policies in terms of the expected KL divergence (cross-entropy) of their induced distributions. To extend AGZ to generic sequential decision-making problems, we introduce a robust MDP framework, in which the agent and nature effectively play a zero-sum game: the agent aims to take actions to maximize reward while nature seeks state transitions, subject to the constraints of that environment, that minimize the agent’s reward. -
AI for Broadcsaters, Future Has Already Begun…
AI for Broadcsaters, future has already begun… By Dr. Veysel Binbay, Specialist Engineer @ ABU Technology & Innovation Department 0 Dr. Veysel Binbay I have been working as Specialist Engineer at ABU Technology and Innovation Department for one year, before that I had worked at TRT (Turkish Radio and Television Corporation) for more than 20 years as a broadcast engineer, and also as an IT Director. I have wide experience on Radio and TV broadcasting technologies, including IT systems also. My experience includes to design, to setup, and to operate analogue/hybrid/digital radio and TV broadcast systems. I have also experienced on IT Networks. 1/25 What is Artificial Intelligence ? • Programs that behave externally like humans? • Programs that operate internally as humans do? • Computational systems that behave intelligently? 2 Some Definitions Trials for AI: The exciting new effort to make computers think … machines with minds, in the full literal sense. Haugeland, 1985 3 Some Definitions Trials for AI: The study of mental faculties through the use of computational models. Charniak and McDermott, 1985 A field of study that seeks to explain and emulate intelligent behavior in terms of computational processes. Schalkoff, 1990 4 Some Definitions Trials for AI: The study of how to make computers do things at which, at the moment, people are better. Rich & Knight, 1991 5 It’s obviously hard to define… (since we don’t have a commonly agreed definition of intelligence itself yet)… Lets try to focus to benefits, and solve definition problem later… 6 Brief history of AI 7 Brief history of AI . The history of AI begins with the following article: . -
Latest Snapshot.” to Modify an Algo So It Does Produce Multiple Snapshots, find the Following Line (Which Is Present in All of the Algorithms)
Spinning Up Documentation Release Joshua Achiam Feb 07, 2020 User Documentation 1 Introduction 3 1.1 What This Is...............................................3 1.2 Why We Built This............................................4 1.3 How This Serves Our Mission......................................4 1.4 Code Design Philosophy.........................................5 1.5 Long-Term Support and Support History................................5 2 Installation 7 2.1 Installing Python.............................................8 2.2 Installing OpenMPI...........................................8 2.3 Installing Spinning Up..........................................8 2.4 Check Your Install............................................9 2.5 Installing MuJoCo (Optional)......................................9 3 Algorithms 11 3.1 What’s Included............................................. 11 3.2 Why These Algorithms?......................................... 12 3.3 Code Format............................................... 12 4 Running Experiments 15 4.1 Launching from the Command Line................................... 16 4.2 Launching from Scripts......................................... 20 5 Experiment Outputs 23 5.1 Algorithm Outputs............................................ 24 5.2 Save Directory Location......................................... 26 5.3 Loading and Running Trained Policies................................. 26 6 Plotting Results 29 7 Part 1: Key Concepts in RL 31 7.1 What Can RL Do?............................................ 31 7.2