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Arms Control After Iraq The United Nations University Press is the publishing arm of the United Nations University. UNU Press publishes scholarly and policy-oriented books and periodicals on the issues facing the United Nations and its peoples and member states, with particular emphasis upon international, regional and trans-boundary policies. The United Nations University is an organ of the United Nations estab- lished by the General Assembly in 1972 to be an international community of scholars engaged in research, advanced training, and the dissemination of knowledge related to the pressing global problems of human survi- val, development, and welfare. Its activities focus mainly on the areas of peace and governance, environment and sustainable development, and science and technology in relation to human welfare. The University op- erates through a worldwide network of research and postgraduate train- ing centres, with its planning and coordinating headquarters in Tokyo. Arms control after Iraq This is a joint project of the United Nations University (UNU) and the International Peace Academy (IPA), in partnership with the Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, Beppu, and Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto Arms control after Iraq: Normative and operational challenges EditedbyWaheguruPalSinghSidhuandRameshThakur United Nations a University Press TOKYO u NEW YORK u PARIS 6 United Nations University, 2006 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not nec- essarily reflect the views of the United Nations University. United Nations University Press United Nations University, 53-70, Jingumae 5-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-8925, Japan Tel: þ81-3-3499-2811 Fax: þ81-3-3406-7345 E-mail: [email protected] general enquiries: [email protected] http://www.unu.edu United Nations University at the United Nations, New York 2 United Nations Plaza, Room DC2-2062, New York, NY 10017, USA Tel: þ1-212-963-6387 Fax: þ1-212-371-9454 E-mail: [email protected] United Nations University Press is the publishing division of the United Nations University. Cover design by Rebecca S. Neimark, Twenty-Six Letters Cover photograph of Hiroshima Dome reproduced by kind permission of John Hobson 6. www.johnhobsonphotography.co.uk Printed in Hong Kong UNUP-1131 92-808-1131-2 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Arms control after Iraq : normative and operational challenges / edited by Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu and Ramesh Thakur p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-9280811315 (pbk.) ISBN-10: 9280811312 (pbk.) 1. Nuclear nonproliferation. 2. Arms control. I. Sidhu, Waheguru Pal Singh. II. Thakur, Ramesh Chandra, 1948– JZ5675.A74 2006 327.1074—dc22 2006020917 Contents Listoffiguresandtables.............................................. viii Listofcontributors.................................................... ix 1 Managing the nuclear threat after Iraq: Is it time to replace theNPTparadigm? ............................................... 1 Ramesh Thakur Part I: Strategic doctrine, norms of non-proliferation and disarmament, and world order ....................................... 21 2 The use of force in international politics: Four revolutions . 23 Kalevi J. Holsti 3 From deterrence to compellence: Doctrinal implications of the Iraqcrisis .......................................................... 40 Kennedy Graham 4 ‘‘Do as I say, not as I do’’: From nuclear non-proliferation to counter-proliferation . ....................................... 57 Rebecca Johnson Part II: The centrality of the United Nations in non-proliferation and disarmament? ..................................................... 81 vi CONTENTS 5 The Security Council’s role in addressing WMD issues: Assessmentandoutlook.......................................... 83 Tsutomu Kono 6 Dealing with WMD crises: The role of the United Nations in compliancepolitics................................................ 114 Harald Mu¨ller 7 Lessons of UNSCOM and UNMOVIC for WMD non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament ............... 140 Trevor Findlay 8 Why we got it wrong: Attempting to unravel the truth of bioweaponsinIraq................................................ 160 Patricia Lewis Part III: Proliferation challenges and international responses in North-east Asia ....................................................... 179 9 NuclearthreatrelianceinEastAsia ............................. 181 Wade L. Huntley 10 Non-proliferation after 9/11 and beyond: A Japanese perspective ........................................................ 200 Heigo Sato Part IV: Proliferation challenges and international responses in theMiddleEast....................................................... 221 11 From bomb to fuel! Iran and the question of weapons of mass destruction......................................................... 223 Jalil Roshandel 12 Arab perspectives on the question of WMD proliferation in theMiddleEast ................................................... 243 Mohammad El-Sayed Selim 13 AnEgyptianperspective ......................................... 256 Mohamed I. Shaker Part V: The permanent five: Part of the problem or devising new solutions? .............................................................. 269 CONTENTS vii 14 An American perspective: The US response to proliferation in weapons of mass destruction . ................................ 271 Damon Coletta 15 UK perspectives on WMD proliferation, arms control, disarmamentandWMDusebynon-stateactors ................ 289 John Simpson 16 Nuclear non-proliferation after Iraq: A French perspective . 305 Philippe Errera 17 Russia’s perspectives on the world order and WMD proliferation ....................................................... 323 Andrei Zagorski 18 China’s perspectives on WMD proliferation, arms control, disarmament and related threats from non-state actors . 337 Dingli Shen and Jiadong Zhang Part VI: The other nuclear powers and the non-proliferation regime ................................................................. 351 19 Nuclear disarmament, nuclear proliferation and WMD proliferation:AnIndianperspective ............................. 353 Gopalaswami Parthasarathy 20 Israel’s updated perspective on WMD proliferation, arms control, disarmament and related threats from non-state actors............................................................... 367 Shlomo Brom Part VII: Broadening the scope of the non-proliferation regime .. 381 21 Nuclear threats from non-state actors . ......................... 383 William C. Potter 22 ManagingmissilesafterIraq:Goingoffcourse.................. 406 Christophe Carle and Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu 23 Conclusion:ManagingnuclearthreatsafterIraq................ 422 Cyrus Samii Index................................................................... 441 Figures and tables Figures 9.1 Theintermediateroleofnuclearpolicies..................... 183 9.2 Regional influences on nuclear policies . ...................... 184 Tables 2.1 The incidence of inter-state war since 1495 ................... 25 2.2 Major military aggressions/conquests, 1648–present . ........ 27 5.1 The Security Council’s involvement in WMD issues other thanIraqandWMDterrorism................................ 85 17.1 National security threats, as perceived by the Russian expertcommunityin2001 ..................................... 328 viii Contributors Professor Ramesh Thakur is Senior Mr Philippe Errera is Deputy Director Vice-Rector of the United Nations oftheCentreforAnalysisand University, Tokyo, Japan, and Planning, Ministry of Foreign Assistant Secretary-General of the Affairs, Paris, France United Nations Dr Trevor Findlay is Associate Dr Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu is Professor at the Norman Paterson Faculty Member at the Geneva School of International Affairs, Centre for Security Policy, Carleton University, Ottawa, Switzerland, and was formerly Senior Canada Associate at the International Peace Academy directing the Iraq Crisis Dr Kennedy Graham is Fellow in the and World Order project. School of Law at the University of Brig. Gen. (ret.) Shlomo Brom is a Canterbury, Christchurch, New Senior Research Associate at the Zealand Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel-Aviv University, Israel Professor Kalevi J. Holsti is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the Dr Christophe Carle is Deputy University of British Columbia, Director of the United Nations Vancouver, Canada Institute for Disarmament Research, Geneva, Switzerland Dr Wade L. Huntley is Director of the Dr Damon Coletta is Deputy Simons Centre for Disarmament & Department Head at the Non-Proliferation Research, Liu Department of Political Science, US Institute for Global Issues, Air Force Academy, Colorado, University of British Columbia, USA Vancouver, Canada ix x CONTRIBUTORS Dr Rebecca Johnson is Executive Mr Cyrus Samii was formerly Senior Director of the Acronym Institute Program Officer at the International for Disarmament Diplomacy, Peace Academy, New York, USA, London, UK and is a PhD Candidate in Political Science at Columbia University, Mr Tsutomu Kono is Political Affairs New York, USA Officer of the United Nations Department for Disarmament Dr Heigo Sato is Senior Research Affairs, New York, USA Fellow of the National Institute for Defense Studies, Tokyo, Japan Dr Patricia M. Lewis is Director of the United Nations Institute for Professor Mohammad El-Sayed Selim Disarmament Research, Geneva, is Director of the Centre for Asian Switzerland Studies, Cairo University, Egypt Dr Harald Mu¨ ller is Director of the Ambassador Mohamed
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