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PRISMVOL. 8, NO. 1 | 2019
SECURITY IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE PRISM VOL. 8, NO. 1
THE JOURNAL OF COMPLEX OPER ATIONS PRISM ABOUT VOL. 8, NO. 1 2019 PRISM, the quarterly journal of complex operations published at National Defense University (NDU), aims to illuminate and provoke debate on whole-of-government efforts to conduct EDITOR reconstruction, stabilization, counterinsurgency, and irregular warfare operations. Since the Mr. Michael Miklaucic inaugural issue of PRISM in 2010, our readership has expanded to include more than 10,000 officials, servicemen and women, and practitioners from across the diplomatic, defense, and development communities in more than 80 countries. DEPUTY EDITOR PRISM is published with support from NDU’s Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS). Ms. Patricia Clough In 1984, Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger established INSS within NDU as a focal point for analysis of critical national security policy and defense strategy issues. Today INSS conducts ASSOCIATE EDITOR research in support of academic and leadership programs at NDU; provides strategic support to Mr. Dale Erickson the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, combatant commands, and armed services; and engages with the broader national and international security communities. INTERNET EDITOR Ms. Joanna E. Seich COMMUNICATIONS PRISM welcomes unsolicited manuscripts from policymakers, practitioners, and scholars, DESIGN particularly those that present emerging thought, best practices, or training and education innovations. Publication threshold for articles and critiques varies but is largely determined Ms. Jamie Harvey, by topical relevance, continuing education for national and international security profession- U.S. Government Publishing Office als, scholarly standards of argumentation, quality of writing, and readability. To help achieve threshold, authors are strongly encouraged to recommend clear solutions or to arm the reader EDITORIAL BOARD with actionable knowledge. Dr. Gordon Adams Our review process can last several months. The PRISM editorial staff will contact authors Dr. Pauline Baker during that timeframe accepting or regretfully rejecting the submission. If the staff is unable to Ambassador Rick Barton publish a submission within four months of acceptance, PRISM will revert publication rights to the author so that they may explore other publication options. Dr. Alain Bauer Constructive comments and contributions are important to PRISM. We also welcome Letters Dr. Hans Binnendijk to the Editor that are exclusive to PRISM—we do not publish open letters. The PRISM editorial ADM Dennis Blair, USN (ret.) staff will contact authors within two months of submission if they accept the letter for publication. Please direct all electronic comments and contributions to
COVER ART Maximo Laura, “Inner Cosmos,” Alpaca wool, mixed fiber hand-woven Peruvian tapestry. Reproduced with permission by the artist.
ISSN 2157-0663 SECURITY IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE
FEATURES 2 Defending Democracy and Human Rights in the Western Hemisphere By Luis Almagro 12 The Strategic Price of Neglect By Peter Schechter 26 The U.S. Military in Support of Strategic Objectives in Latin America and the Caribbean By R. Evan Ellis 40 The Venezuelan Crisis and Salvador Allende’s Glasses By Juan S. Gonzalez 56 The Evolution of the Most Lethal Criminal Organization in Brazil—the PCC By Leonardo Coutinho 68 Great Expectations and Grim Realities in AMLO’s Mexico By Mary Speck 82 Security Challenges of the New Colombian Administration By David E. Spencer 96 Extra-regional Actors in Latin America: The United States is not the Only Game in Town By Douglas Farah and Kathryn Babineau 114 Only Connect: the Survival and Spread of Organized Crime in Latin America By Ivan Briscoe and David Keseberg 132 The New Opium War: A National Emergency By Celina B. Realuyo
BOOK REVIEWS 143 China’s Strategic Partnerships in Latin America: Case Studies of China’s Oil Diplomacy in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela 1991–2015 Reviewed by William H. Godnick 146 Soldiers, Politicians, and Civilians: Reforming Civil-Military Relations in Democratic Latin America Reviewed by Craig Deare ALMAGRO
Protests in February 2014 against the Nicolas Maduro government in Maracaibo, Venezuela’s second largest city. (Wikimedia/Name withheld at request of copyright owner)
2 | FEATURES PRISM 8, NO. 1 Defending Democracy and Human Rights in the Western Hemisphere By Luis Almagro
ne glimpse at the covers of the main news and political magazines in recent years is often enough to discern a common theme. These publications often display fatalist titles such as “Democracy in Demise,” “Democracy in Crisis,” “Democracy in Peril,” or maybe the alternative favorite, “AuthoritarianismO on the Rise.” First the 2008 financial crisis, then the results of certain elections worldwide led many to question the future of liberal democracy. In Latin America, an additional series of events such as the “Operacão Lava Jato” (Operation Car Wash) corruption scandal that put many high-level elected and pub- lic officials in jail, paved the way for fed-up citizens to rebel against their governments in the streets and in the polls, ousting traditional parties and political elites from power. Despite the bad news, and the serious backsliding in some specific cases and notorious exceptions (e.g. Cuba and Venezuela), I argue that democracy is not dying. For better or worse, it is moving forward. Recent events do not necessarily mean that democracy is on the brink of extinction; rather, they show that there are challenges inherent to democratic life. If anything, the heated public debates confirm that democracy is a liv- ing process, which requires constant maintenance and strengthening. Democracy cannot succeed by inertia. It is unreasonable to assume that the fight against authoritarianism is won because not one, but three waves of democratization have occurred or because the free world defeated totali- tarianism in the 20th century and created a robust international law regime to protect human rights.1 Democracy, freedom, and human rights, require never-ending democratic actions and behaviors from all sectors of society, domestic and international. Leaving democracy to proceed by inertia alone, and if its supporters are passive and silent, risks the total collapse of democratic norms and institutions as we have seen in Venezuela. Regardless of the democratic deficits and emerging anti-rights agenda in recent years, democracy is the preferred form of government of the clear majority and a right for the peoples of the Americas.2 Except for the dictatorial outliers, the Hemisphere is home to young democracies that are going through growing pains. Granted, these growing pains are far more severe for some than for others. There is no such thing as the perfect democracy, but it is important to act as though such a thing is possi- ble. Democracy requires constant, continuous work. As such, the system relies upon the accumulation of small
The 10th Secretary General of the Organization of American States, Minister Luis Almagro is a Uruguayan lawyer, diplomat, and politician.
PRISM 8, NO. 1 FEATURES | 3 ALMAGRO victories on the path of respect for and protection of The OAS must be what the peoples of the democratic and human rights. Unfortunately, the Americas want it to be; it must be, and is today what Americas have not rid themselves entirely of authori- the member states agreed by formal Inter-American tarian conditioned reflexes. The rest of the world has agreements, an instrument to serve the American not either. This is partly due to human nature, both peoples. The OAS should always stand by these prin- its humane and inhumane dimensions. The dark, ciples and values and should work for the peoples anti-democratic and anti-rights side—as the per- of the Americas, as a function of their needs and of sistence of dictators, extremely personalist forms of principles, and not as a function of politics and indi- leadership, organized crime, terrorism, and corrup- vidual interests. tion shows—is always alive and attempting to corrupt The way forward should be and is, to guide and co-opt those actors and causes that support every decision, every action, every day in the human dignity, rights, and democracy development. General Secretariat, by democratic and human This includes international actors and causes. rights values. These values are already part of The threats to democracy, human rights, and international law, particularly a norm approved by human dignity do not respect borders; therefore, the OAS member states in 2001, the Inter-American role of the international community and diplomacy Democratic Charter (IADC). This instrument in championing and protecting human dignity is resolves that the essential elements of representative essential. Given the need for international checks democracy include: and balances to ensure that the humane and civi- respect for human rights and fundamen- lized outweighs the corrupt and authoritarian, the tal freedoms, access to and the exercise Organization of American States (OAS) exists to of power in accordance with the rule of assure that there is compliance with Inter-American law, the holding of periodic, free, and fair and international law pertaining to democracy and elections based on secret balloting and human rights throughout the region. universal suffrage, the pluralistic system of political parties and organizations, and the The Role of the OAS separation of powers and independence of The OAS has acted to maintain and strengthen the branches of government.3 democracy and human rights in the Americas in accordance with its core values enshrined in Inter- Article 4 also mentions that transparency in gov- American law. There was a time when the OAS ernment activities, probity, responsible public fulfilled this role on paper only, but not in real- administration on the part of governments, respect ity. The Organization was not at the center of the for social rights, and freedom of expression and of political agenda of the Hemisphere. It was merely an the press are essential components.4 instrument, a place, a platform, in which political The IADC represents the democratic ideals to interests and the dominating powers of the geopol- which we aspire, to which we direct our efforts. In itics of the day convened, bargained, negotiated, theory, democracies in the region should attempt colluded, and/or exchanged views. It was a passive and/or be as close to this ideal as possible. In practice, organization; an OAS that was not active, did not the story is different. Defending principles is often know its purpose, and was whatever its member viewed as an unconventional way of doing diplomacy, states and its General Secretariat wanted it to do and but it should not be unconventional at all. Defending be at any given time. human rights, human dignity, and democracy should
4 | FEATURES PRISM 8, NO. 1 DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS
In mid-March 2016, protesters go to National Congress Palace denouncing corruption and calling for the departure of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff. (Agência Brasil Fotografias) be the normal and expected course of action. The except two dictatorships (Cuba and Venezuela), international community, including the OAS General and one that is transitioning toward dictatorship Secretariat and its member states, should strive to be (Nicaragua). These latter are governments that consistent in theory and practice. The environment in repress people through conventional means such as which the OAS acts, and in which democracy devel- torture and political persecution, as well as through ops, is challenging. less conventional patterns of repression such as hun- ger and disease. Challenges to Democracy The voices of the victims of the abuses of these Today in the Americas there are high-levels of dictatorships speak by themselves of the challenges social and political tension both north and south, ahead to bring justice and strengthen democracy. and between democracies and dictatorships. The As of November, there are hundreds of political Hemisphere is home to 35 states, all democracies prisoners in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.
PRISM 8, NO. 1 FEATURES | 5 ALMAGRO
There is evidence of torture. There is evidence of November; in addition, 7,495 individuals are subject forced disappearances, and extra-judicial assassi- to judicial processes for political reasons.7 nations at the hands of the state that is supposed to The testimonies of these victims and their rela- protect them. tives should force leaders to recognize fundamental In 2014, Johanna Aguirre and her husband, truths. There is simply no access to human rights Alejandro, were about to have dinner at their home, in too many places in our Hemisphere, there are no when Alejandro decided to join the nearby protests guarantees, and there is no due process that allows in Caracas, Venezuela.5 He was filming the deployed individuals to defend themselves. That is morally Guardia Nacional Bolivariana on the street with his unacceptable, in addition to being illegal from the cell phone, and when he refused to surrender his standpoint of international human rights law and phone, he was beaten and taken. He disappeared for the basics of the rule of law. hours and finally Johanna found him in a hospital Comparing this situation to that in the rest of bed, in a coma; he died days later. Alejandro died the world, there are two obvious negative aspects of because he expressed dissent and protested, and the current quality of democracy in Latin America: because he had the “audacity” to film the repres- it remains the most economically unequal region sion. Now Johanna will spend her life fighting to get in the world, and it is also the most violent region justice for him. on the planet.8 Organized crime, drug trafficking, The testimony of Marco Novoa, a Nicaraguan violent death, lack of access to rights, poverty, and protester whose forced disappearance and torture extreme poverty are persistent threats. The power during the outbreak of the crisis for being the water of transnational organized crime is in some areas coordinator—the person in charge of bringing water greater than that of the state. Shameless corruption, to the students who were in the barricades—is also which has always existed, has come to the surface disturbing.6 Marco said that the experience “took his and angered citizens who now often blame democ- humanity.” His life changed completely since April racy for its shortcomings. According to the latest 2018. He was to graduate last summer, start his life Latinobarómetro survey of 18 Latin American coun- as a young adult, and perhaps get a job. Instead, he tries, the proportion of people who are dissatisfied will now live forever with the horrific scars left by with democracy increased from 51 percent in 2009 torture. And he will live seeking justice, for himself to 71 percent in 2018.9 and for those who are still detained and tortured by However, according to the Freedom House regime forces in Nicaragua. scores, the standing of the Western Hemisphere vis-à- In October, two more dissidents were assassi- vis the rest of the world is not that dismal. According nated in the region. Oscar Herrera Blandon was shot to the Freedom in the World 2018 Report, the by paramilitary forces in Nicaragua, and Fernando Americas is second only to Western Europe in terms Albán was killed by the premier intelligence agency of freedom and respect for human rights worldwide, in Venezuela. Juan Requesens, a Venezuelan oppo- despite democratic backsliding and an escalation of sition leader, now a political prisoner, is subject to authoritarian tendencies, populism, and violence.10 torture and has not been given appropriate medi- If democracy in the Hemisphere today is cal attention. As of early January, the Venezuelan compared to the past—to how it was in the 1970s nongovernmental organization Foro Penal regis- and 1980s—the record is mixed. On the positive tered a total of 966 political prisoners in the country, side, the most notable progress is that there were representing a sharp uptick from the total of 232 in numerous successful transitions to democracy from
6 | FEATURES PRISM 8, NO. 1 DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS dictatorships and authoritarian rule to electoral denunciations have been made in the international democracy. Great effort and political will has been sphere, specifically since the resolutions approved by invested in building democratic institutions, creat- the OAS Permanent Council in April 2017.13 ing pluralistic political party systems, strengthening Second, the nature and impulse behind the the judiciary and the rule of law, and liberalizing toxic effects of the Cuban and Venezuelan regimes political systems to provide and protect more politi- on the rest of the region do not derive from ideology cal rights and more civil liberties. as in the past century. They oppress and repress not However, it has not been enough. The scores because of an ideology or national security doctrine for political rights and civil rights assigned by the that defines enemies of the state framed within Freedom House methodology across two decades Cold War politics. Cuba and Venezuela repress any show a relative decline of freedom in the Americas. individual who represents a threat to regime per- In 1998, 74 percent of the countries assessed were manence in power. They export practices such as considered Free, 23 percent Partly Free, and 4 polarization, violent repression of innocent civilians, percent Not Free.11 By 2018, 66 percent of the 35 rampant corruption, and criminal activities. Their countries were categorized as Free, 28 percent as strategy to instill fear as a way of governing has Partly Free, and 6 percent Not Free.12 In recent years nothing to do with ideology, and everything to do the region lost a democracy, and by extension gained with personal gain. a new dictatorship. Venezuela joins Cuba in the “Not And third, the persistence of these dictatorships Free” ranks. Nicaragua could soon follow suit. is worrisome given that we are dealing in our very Comparing Latin America today to the 1970s Hemisphere with regimes that operate shamelessly and 1980s, reveals that quantitatively there were within a different values system entirely, incompatible more authoritarian governments and dictatorships with morally and legally accepted human rights and back then. Yet the two dictatorships that exist today, democracy principles in international relations. This Cuba and Venezuela, have shown shrewd capacity trend is similar to the behavior of global authoritar- for exporting bad practices throughout the region. ian players elsewhere in the world that are blatantly This is worrisome for many reasons, but I will ignoring the human rights and principles agenda. highlight the three most relevant. First, the ques- Regardless of the technological advances and tion of silence and appeasement from the rest of the the rise of social media that make events evident and region, at least initially. Bad practices exported and in real time to the public, these regimes overtly kill, propagated systematically by dictatorships gained repress, and oppress their own people, but blatantly more and more strength as there was increasing and shamelessly deny it. fear and silence from democratic and human rights voices in the region to denounce them in formal, How to Respond to Challenges multilateral, political forums. After the transitions Democracy is not dying, but action is needed to to democratic rule across the region, there were not achieve justice and keep moving democracy forward. supposed to be more dictatorships, which were con- There is a need to permanently address countries’ sidered artifacts of the past. During the transitions bad practices and encourage them to adopt good it was believed by many that democracy was now practices. Common bad practices in political systems firmly established as the only game in town. But one in the region are; co-optation of the judiciary, block- dictatorship did survive the turn of the century— ing the action of parliaments and/or members of Cuba—and another emerged in Venezuela. Formal parliament, the threat of or assassination of political
PRISM 8, NO. 1 FEATURES | 7 ALMAGRO candidates, corruption, impunity, murder of human is not only to fight rampant corruption and impunity rights and environmental activists, and blocking within the framework of imperfect democratic states. political participation, among others. The main test now is to fight those who are deliber- The good news is that the OAS is responding ately eliminating the basic human rights of their own to that in cooperation with civil society. The time people, within their borders. when those guilty of corruption enjoyed impunity is Venezuela is the greatest, most painful test of over. Impunity is being pushed back, the corruptors the commitment to democracy of OAS member shamed, and the possibility of justice is becoming a states. How should the international community reality. The work of the Mission to Support the Fight respond to this test? Venezuela is not only a failed against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras state, it is a free-falling narco-state. The regime is led (MACCIH, for its initials in Spanish), since it was by individuals who have been charged with corrup- established in 2016 is a case in point. The certainty tion and drug trafficking. They know that if they of justice in the Americas is the ideal, but it will still leave their positions of power, they will face justice. take a while to achieve. The Venezuelan regime has destroyed checks As the previously mentioned cases of Cuba, and balances and governmental institutions, Venezuela, and Nicaragua show, the challenges ahead destroyed free and fair elections, destroyed the econ- are not only how to tackle the deficits in democratic omy, destroyed PDVSA (the Venezuelan national oil governance, but also the persistence of dictatorships. company), destroyed democracy while it steals mil- It is not simply a problem of governments not having lions, and has persecuted, imprisoned, tortured, and the capacity, in terms of human resources, budget, killed its “internal enemies”: innocent civilians who and management, to respond to pressing issues such simply do not support and agree with the regime. as drug trafficking and gang violence. The challenge They have even deliberately starved infants and
Figure 1: OAS Member State Votes on Venezuela 2016–18.