2 019 PRISMVOL. 8, NO. 1 | 2019 SECURITY IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE PRISM VOL. 8, NO. 1 NO. 8, VOL. THE JOURNAL OF COMPLEX OPER ATIONS PRISM ABOUT VOL. 8, NO. 1 2019 PRISM, the quarterly journal of complex operations published at National Defense University (NDU), aims to illuminate and provoke debate on whole-of-government efforts to conduct EDITOR reconstruction, stabilization, counterinsurgency, and irregular warfare operations. Since the Mr. Michael Miklaucic inaugural issue of PRISM in 2010, our readership has expanded to include more than 10,000 officials, servicemen and women, and practitioners from across the diplomatic, defense, and development communities in more than 80 countries. DEPUTY EDITOR PRISM is published with support from NDU’s Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS). Ms. Patricia Clough In 1984, Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger established INSS within NDU as a focal point for analysis of critical national security policy and defense strategy issues. Today INSS conducts ASSOCIATE EDITOR research in support of academic and leadership programs at NDU; provides strategic support to Mr. Dale Erickson the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, combatant commands, and armed services; and engages with the broader national and international security communities. INTERNET EDITOR Ms. Joanna E. Seich COMMUNICATIONS PRISM welcomes unsolicited manuscripts from policymakers, practitioners, and scholars, DESIGN particularly those that present emerging thought, best practices, or training and education innovations. Publication threshold for articles and critiques varies but is largely determined Ms. Jamie Harvey, by topical relevance, continuing education for national and international security profession- U.S. Government Publishing Office als, scholarly standards of argumentation, quality of writing, and readability. 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Schear The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those Dr. Joanna Spear of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of DOD or any other agency of the ADM James Stavridis, USN (ret.) Federal Government, or any other organization associated with this publication. As this edition went to press, the political situation in Venezuela remained dynamic Dr. Ruth Wedgwood and uncertain. On January 23, 2019, U.S. Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo issued a press statement declaring that the United States “recognizes Juan Guaido as the new interim President of Venezuela, and strongly supports his courageous decision to assume that role pursuant to Article 233 of Venezuela’s constitution and supported by the National Assembly, in restoring democracy to Venezuela.” COVER ART Maximo Laura, “Inner Cosmos,” Alpaca wool, mixed fiber hand-woven Peruvian tapestry. Reproduced with permission by the artist. ISSN 2157-0663 SECURITY IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE FEATURES 2 Defending Democracy and Human Rights in the Western Hemisphere By Luis Almagro 12 The Strategic Price of Neglect By Peter Schechter 26 The U.S. Military in Support of Strategic Objectives in Latin America and the Caribbean By R. Evan Ellis 40 The Venezuelan Crisis and Salvador Allende’s Glasses By Juan S. Gonzalez 56 The Evolution of the Most Lethal Criminal Organization in Brazil—the PCC By Leonardo Coutinho 68 Great Expectations and Grim Realities in AMLO’s Mexico By Mary Speck 82 Security Challenges of the New Colombian Administration By David E. Spencer 96 Extra-regional Actors in Latin America: The United States is not the Only Game in Town By Douglas Farah and Kathryn Babineau 114 Only Connect: the Survival and Spread of Organized Crime in Latin America By Ivan Briscoe and David Keseberg 132 The New Opium War: A National Emergency By Celina B. Realuyo BOOK REVIEWS 143 China’s Strategic Partnerships in Latin America: Case Studies of China’s Oil Diplomacy in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela 1991–2015 Reviewed by William H. Godnick 146 Soldiers, Politicians, and Civilians: Reforming Civil-Military Relations in Democratic Latin America Reviewed by Craig Deare ALMAGRO Protests in February 2014 against the Nicolas Maduro government in Maracaibo, Venezuela’s second largest city. (Wikimedia/Name withheld at request of copyright owner) 2 | FEATURES PRISM 8, NO. 1 Defending Democracy and Human Rights in the Western Hemisphere By Luis Almagro ne glimpse at the covers of the main news and political magazines in recent years is often enough to discern a common theme. These publications often display fatalist titles such as “Democracy in Demise,” “Democracy in Crisis,” “Democracy in Peril,” or maybe the alternative favorite, O“Authoritarianism on the Rise.” First the 2008 financial crisis, then the results of certain elections worldwide led many to question the future of liberal democracy. In Latin America, an additional series of events such as the “Operacão Lava Jato” (Operation Car Wash) corruption scandal that put many high-level elected and pub- lic officials in jail, paved the way for fed-up citizens to rebel against their governments in the streets and in the polls, ousting traditional parties and political elites from power. Despite the bad news, and the serious backsliding in some specific cases and notorious exceptions (e.g. Cuba and Venezuela), I argue that democracy is not dying. For better or worse, it is moving forward. Recent events do not necessarily mean that democracy is on the brink of extinction; rather, they show that there are challenges inherent to democratic life. If anything, the heated public debates confirm that democracy is a liv- ing process, which requires constant maintenance and strengthening. Democracy cannot succeed by inertia. It is unreasonable to assume that the fight against authoritarianism is won because not one, but three waves of democratization have occurred or because the free world defeated totali- tarianism in the 20th century and created a robust international law regime to protect human rights.1 Democracy, freedom, and human rights, require never-ending democratic actions and behaviors from all sectors of society, domestic and international. Leaving democracy to proceed by inertia alone, and if its supporters are passive and silent, risks the total collapse of democratic norms and institutions as we have seen in Venezuela. Regardless of the democratic deficits and emerging anti-rights agenda in recent years, democracy is the preferred form of government of the clear majority and a right for the peoples of the Americas.2 Except for the dictatorial outliers, the Hemisphere is home to young democracies that are going through growing pains. Granted, these growing pains are far more severe for some than for others. There is no such thing as the perfect democracy, but it is important to act as though such a thing is possi- ble. Democracy requires constant, continuous work. As such, the system relies upon the accumulation of small The 10th Secretary General of the Organization of American States, Minister Luis Almagro is a Uruguayan lawyer, diplomat, and politician. PRISM 8, NO. 1 FEATURES | 3 ALMAGRO victories on the path of respect for and protection of The OAS must be what the peoples of the democratic and human rights. Unfortunately, the Americas want it to be; it must be, and is today what Americas have not rid themselves entirely of authori- the member states agreed by formal Inter-American tarian conditioned reflexes. The rest of the world has agreements, an instrument to serve the American not either. This is partly due to human nature, both peoples. The OAS should always stand by these prin- its humane and inhumane dimensions. The dark, ciples and values and should work for the peoples anti-democratic and anti-rights side—as the per- of the Americas, as a function of their needs and of sistence of dictators, extremely personalist forms of principles, and not as a function of politics and indi- leadership, organized crime, terrorism, and corrup- vidual interests. tion shows—is always alive and attempting to corrupt The way forward should be and is, to guide and co-opt those actors and causes that support every decision, every action, every day in the human dignity, rights, and democracy development. General Secretariat, by democratic and human This includes international actors and causes.