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El Salvador: Tips on Managing Crime and Avoiding Populism – Or Is It the Other Way Round?

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El Salvador: Tips on Managing Crime and Avoiding Populism – Or Is It the Other Way Round? DISCUSSION PAPER 8/2018 El Salvador: Tips on Managing Crime and Avoiding Populism – or is it the other way round? Greg Mills Strengthening Africa’s economic performance El Salvador: Tips on Managing Crime and Avoiding Populism – or is it the other way round? Contents Executive Summary .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 3 Introduction .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 4 Oligarchies and Campesinos.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 4 Cristiani and Peace .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 5 The Corrosion of Corruption.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 6 Murder Capital .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 7 The Politics are Changing .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 9 Winning the Vote .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 10 Three Lessons from War to Peace .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 11 Endnotes .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 12 About the Author Published in July 2018 by Dr Greg Mills heads the Johannesburg-based Brenthurst Foundation, estab- The Brenthurst Foundation lished in 2005 by the Oppenheimer family to strengthen African economic performance. He holds degrees from the Universities of Cape Town and Lancaster, and was the National Director of the SA Institute of International The Brenthurst Foundation Affairs from 1996 to 2005. He has directed numerous reform projects in more (Pty) Limited than a dozen African governments (including in 2017 for example with the PO Box 61631, Johannesburg 2000, governments of Ghana, Lagos State, the five states of SE Nigeria, Lesotho South Africa and Mozambique), sat on the Danish Africa Commission and on the African Tel +27-(0)11 274-2096 Development Bank’s high-level panel on fragile states, and has served four deployments to Afghanistan with NATO. A member of the Advisory Board Fax +27-(0)11 274-2097 of the Royal United Services Institute, he is the author, inter alia, of the best- www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org selling books Why Africa Is Poor, Africa’s Third Liberation (with Jeffrey Herbst), and most recently, together with the chairman of the Foundation, President All rights reserved. The material Olusegun Obasanjo, Dr Herbst and Major-General Dickie Davis, Making Africa in this publication may not be Work: A Handbook for Economic Success. He is currently working on a book- reproduced, stored, or transmitted length study on democracy in Africa due out at the start of 2019. without the prior permission of the publisher. Short extracts may be quoted, provided the source is fully acknowledged. Layout and design by Sheaf Publishing, Benoni. EL SALVADOR: TIPS ON MANAGING CRIME AND AVOIDING POPULISM Executive Summary El Salvador is adjudged the world’s most violent country, with a rate of 81 murders per 100,000 people in 2016 – more than three times that of Mexico, for example. San Salvador rivals Venezuela’s Caracas as the most murderous city at 137/100,000. The country is trapped in a vicious cycle of populism and insecurity. Because there is no security, there is little investment, no growth, few jobs, insufficient resources for security and thus an increase in insecurity. And the populism of the ruling FMLN has offered few answers, only greater problems. In this lie lessons for African states treading a populist path. BRENTHURST DISCUSSION PAPER 8/2018 3 EL SALVADOR: TIPS ON MANAGING CRIME AND AVOIDING POPULISM Introduction A simple wall of remembrance skirts the edge of El Mozote’s main square alongside the Santa The mountainous region of Morazán in Katarina church where 146 children and two El Salvador’s northeast was a guerrilla stronghold adults were taken outside and killed, among them in the country’s 12-year-long civil war. The fight- Maria de la Paz Chicas’ pregnant sister and four- ers enjoyed broad support then, as now, among year-old child. ‘They brought all the people here,’ the area’s impoverished farms and campesinos. she says, ‘from Guacamaya, and killed them here. The territory is hilly, wooded and, for the farmer, They told them they were going to give them food. hardscrabble, but a perfect guerrilla playground They took all the young pretty women to the hills and the site of much bitter fighting as the rebels and raped them there for three days. The chil- attempted to cut the country in two, north to dren,’ she says beckoning to a garden, ‘were killed south, along the Rio Torola. In 1980, at the war’s there, where there is now the ‘Garden of Reflection start, the government identified 76 camps to the of Innocence’. … They killed the men behind the east of the river, ‘with tunnels, shooting ranges, fence,’ she says pointing in the opposite direction. and intelligence and defence systems, housing no ‘But they never found the bodies. They were totally fewer than 2 500 Cuban-trained irregulars.’1 burnt.’2 It ended along with the Cold War. Now on a El Salvador’s colonial history, like neighbouring Ruta de la Paz (‘Route of Peace’), near the Honduran Guatemala’s, has been one of oligarchic economic border nearly 1 200 metres up, Perquín was the site control and the envy, anger, unrest and, ultimately, of a rebel headquarters. Two decades later, the war violence it generated. It has left deep and abiding museum in the village details the origins of the scars. But it also managed a difficult transition to insurgency and the weapons used by both sides. peace in the early 1990s which provided it with a The radio studio for Radio Venceremos (‘we will platform which a combination of crime, corrup- triumph’), at the centre of the guerrillas’ success tion and populism seeks to undo. This Discussion in the propaganda war, is also on public display. Paper identifies lessons from El Salvador’s transi- The guides are former guerrillas, eking out a living tion and assesses its prospects of getting out of the from the tips of the sprinkling of tourists. mess in which it has found itself. On 11 December 1981, US-trained soldiers of the government’s elite Atlacatl Battalion killed some 200 residents of the northern hill village of Oligarchies and Campesinos El Mozote, about ten kilometres down a cobbled and dirt track from Perquín. In the 1700s, a small group of Spanish descendants – known as the ‘fourteen families’ – controlled the economy through especially the lucrative indigo trade. As synthetic dyes took over, coffee became the main export crop, accounting for 95 per cent of El Salvador’s foreign income by the 20th century and still controlled by a tiny elite. Uprisings against such inequity occurred sporadically through- out the century, including the infamous Matanza (‘massacre’) in 1932 of 30 000 political opponents, including notably the opposition socialist politi- cian Agustin Farabundo Martí, executed by firing squad. El Mozote’s Wall of Remembrance BRENTHURST DISCUSSION PAPER 8/2018 4 EL SALVADOR: TIPS ON MANAGING CRIME AND AVOIDING POPULISM interests in coffee and pharmaceuticals, Cristiani had been drawn into politics at the beginning of the 1980s when the FMLN’s campesino followers, the rural poor dependent on agriculture, began squatting on farms. Cristiani and Peace Under Cristiani’s watch, the UN-supervised and monitored peace process began in April 1990. The Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front On 16 January 1992, the Chapultepec Peace (FMLN), founded in 1980, bears his name, its Accords were signed in Mexico, under the terms guerrillas dominating Morazán and El Mozote. of which the rebel FMLN became an opposition In the 1960s and 1970s, the vehicles for leftist political party. political mobilisation drew their leadership from Ending the civil war had a positive impact on radical Roman Catholic groups and their liberation stability and growth. Winning the peace is at least theology. By the 1970s, the civil conflict had devel- as important, but as El Salvador’s restive politics oped into a struggle between anti-government illustrate, it’s a long-term job. guerrillas on one side and the government, para- ‘If we had not had a democratic process, there militaries and private ‘death squads’ on the other would,’ reflects Cristiani, ‘be no peace. Our conflict – the beginning of El Salvador’s tiempos de locura or was generated by a lack of political space. We also ‘season of madness’.3 needed economic reform, in trying to deal with the In October 1979, a reform-minded junta macro-economic aspects of the conflict.’ overthrew President Carlos Humberto Romero. A third aspect was, according to Cristiani, The Revolutionary Government Junta (JRG) was to align the military to the peace agreement, inspired by a brand of left-wing politics. Under ‘to change their doctrine to become a more obedi- combined civilian-military leadership, the JRG ent institution so that if they don’t like something, devised a number of reforms during its tenure, there is no threat of a coup’. which lasted until the elections of March 1982, As president of a country ‘coming out of war including expropriating large landholdings along with a bad reputation’, Cristiani saw the need to get with commercial banking, coffee and sugar into ‘high labour intensive industry, the maquilas, industries. and agro-industry beyond just producing food’. But even as these reforms proceeded, the war Growth improved during the 1990s on the back escalated. The assassination of popular opposition
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