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Causes of Third Party Military Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts Hailey Bennett James Madison University

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Causes of Third Party Military Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts Hailey Bennett James Madison University James Madison University JMU Scholarly Commons Senior Honors Projects, 2010-current Honors College Fall 2015 Causes of third party military intervention in intrastate conflicts Hailey Bennett James Madison University Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/honors201019 Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Bennett, Hailey, "Causes of third party military intervention in intrastate conflicts" (2015). Senior Honors Projects, 2010-current. 7. https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/honors201019/7 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Honors College at JMU Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Senior Honors Projects, 2010-current by an authorized administrator of JMU Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Causes of Third Party Military Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts _______________________ An Honors Program Project Presented to the Faculty of the Undergraduate College of Arts and Letters James Madison University _______________________ by Hailey Nichole Bennett December 2015 Accepted by the faculty of the Department of Political Science, James Madison University, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Honors Program. FACULTY COMMITTEE: HONORS PROGRAM APPROVAL: Project Advisor: Jonathan W. Keller, Ph.D. Bradley R. Newcomer, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Political Science Director, Honors Program Reader: Kristin N. Wylie, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Political Science Reader: Manal A. Jamal, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Political Science PUBLIC PRESENTATION This work is accepted for presentation, in part or in full, at Miller 2116 on December 9, 2015 at 4pm. Dedication To mom, dad, Sierra and Tyler for your constant support and encouragement. 2 Table of Contents List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………...………4 Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………………..………5 Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………………6 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………..7 Literature Review………………………………………………………………………………...13 Methodology……………………………………………………………………………………..34 Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………………..57 Case Study: Lebanon, 1982-1984………………………………………………………………..75 Case Study: Algeria, 1992……………………………………………………………………….90 Case Study: Libya, 2011………………………………………………………………………..107 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………...122 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………………136 3 List of Tables Table 1: Descriptive Statistics…………………………………………………………………...58 Table 2: Dependent Variable Frequency………………………………………………………...59 Table 3: Regime Type Frequency………………………………………………………………..59 Table 4: Logit Analysis Results………………………………………………………………….60 Table 5: Logit Analysis Results Accounting for Era…………………………………………….62 Table 6: Logit Analysis Results Accounting for Region……………………………………...…63 Table 7: Logit Analysis Results Accounting for Era and Region………………………………..64 Table 8: Gravity Predicted Probabilities—Logit Results………………………………………..65 Table 9: Power Discrepancy Predicted Probabilities—Logit Results…………………………...66 Table 10: Alliance Capability Predicted Probabilities—Logit Results………………………….66 Table 11: Economic Status Predicted Probabilities—Logit Results……………………………..66 Table 12: Ordered Probit Analysis Results………………………………………………………68 Table 13: Order Probit Analysis Results Accounting for Era……………………………………69 Table 14: Ordered Probit Analysis Results Accounting for Region……………………………..70 Table 15: Ordered Probit Analysis Results Accounting for Era and Region……………………71 Table 16: Power Discrepancy Predicted Probabilities—Ordered Probit Results………….…….72 Table 17: Alliance Capability Predicted Probabilities—Ordered Probit Results…………….….73 Table 18: Economic Status Predicted Probabilities—Ordered Probit Results…………………..73 Table 19: Summary of Statistical Analyses Results……………………………………………123 Table 20: Summary of Case Study Results……………………………………………………..124 4 Acknowledgements I would like to thank my committee for their constant advice and time spent assisting me in whatever way they could. Dr. Jamal and Dr. Wylie provided invaluable advice on Middle East relations and statistical analysis respectively. A very special thanks to Dr. Keller for serving as my thesis chair and for guiding me though every step of this process and constantly working to improve my research. I would also like to thank the Honors Program for providing me the opportunity to undertake this project. 5 Abstract Since the conclusion of World War II, the number of expansive interstate wars has decreased while devastating intrastate wars and conflicts have increased exponentially. The Cold War ushered in an era of international stability in the bipolar balance of power, but proxy wars, wars of succession and independence, genocide and civil war made the era anything but peaceful. These conflicts proved to be breading grounds for third party military interventions, which increased simultaneously. In this thesis, I attempted to determine what factors encouraged third party states to intervene militarily in the affairs of other states in the post-World War II era. I conducted a mixed methods approach, incorporating statistical analyses and case studies to identify global and specific trends in intervention. The cross-national statistical analyses include logit and ordered probit analyses and support the role of threat to influence in the international system, power discrepancy, alliance capability and economic conditions of the crisis actor as significant factors to decision-making. On the other hand, the case studies focus on three cases of U.S. intervention (or lack of) across time. They are Lebanon from 1982-1984, Algeria in 1992 and Libya in 2011. The results of the case studies support factors such as threat to influence, media attention and previous successful interventions in the crisis state as causes of U.S. military intervention. Ultimately, I establish that the United States will pursue interventions for the sake of its national interests abroad. 6 Introduction Iraq, Syria and Yemen are just a few states currently embroiled in violent internal conflicts attributed to civil war and insurgency. Foreign powers progressively internationalize such conflicts by deploying military capabilities to influence their outcome. Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States are a handful of state actors that are partaking in military interventions for this very purpose. Understanding the motives of crisis actors in third party military interventions is fundamental to anticipating changes in threats and in preparing proper policy recommendations for outside and potential actors. States are inherently rational actors that seek to maximize their relative power and security and maintain their national interests (Morgenthau in Williams 2014). Increasingly, this has involved the use of military force to intervene into the internal affairs of sovereign states that are embroiled in violent civil conflicts that are threatening the national interests of potential crisis actors (Shirkey 2012). Therefore, examination of the causes and interests leading a particular third party to intervene militarily is necessary to understand why these interventions are occurring. Intrastate conflicts have replaced the pre-World War II trend of interstate engagements (conflicts between states). With the replace of the multipolar balance of power with a bipolar system post-World War II, Waltz (in Williams 2014) suggests that this system and balance of power are more stable and leads to less interstate conflicts than the previous arrangement. Furthermore, the zero-sum Cold War tactics including mutually assured destruction, actually encouraged peace between states to ensure survival in the age of nuclear destruction. While the international system has more stability, the increased sovereignty granted to former colonial possessions seeking self-determination has contributed to growing violent intrastate conflicts. 7 Intrastate engagements refer to conflicts within states, often between government forces and civilian factions, or civil wars. This can also include insurgency as we see in Iraq, genocide as was witnessed in Rwanda and other conflicts where violence largely affects civilian populations and emerges from domestic conditions such as wars of state-formation or succession (Williams 2014: 195). The origins of violent civil conflicts are just as subjective as their definition. While the process of state formation in the aftermath of colonialization is a clear cause, numerous other factors can contribute to these conflicts. The so-called “new wars” debate described by Williams (2014) suggests that in the post-World War II era there have been dramatic changes in the way we think about warfare and fighting wars. In particular, “the goals of combatants can be understood in the context of struggle between cosmopolitan and exclusivist identity groups” (Williams 2014: 200). That is to say that non-state actors are increasingly challenging the legitimacy of state organizations as they seek rights and influence that have traditionally been withheld. The central question of this thesis will be to explain why states intervene in the internal conflicts of sovereign states in the post-World War II era. I am not explaining whether the intervention should have occurred, nor am I explaining the effectiveness of the intervention. I am only seeking to explore some of the causal factors that contributed to (or did not) the intervention. For my purposes here, I use Regan’s 1998 definition of third party military intervention
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