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National Park System: a Screening Level Assessment

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National Park System: a Screening Level Assessment Environment Canada Parks Canada Environnement Canada Parcs Canada Edited by: Daniel Scott Adaptation & Impacts Research Group, Environment Canada and Roger Suffling School of Planning, University of Waterloo May 2000 Climate change and Canada’s national park system: A screening level assessment Le Changement climatique et le réseau des parcs nationaux du Canada : une évaluation préliminaire This report was prepared for Parks Canada, Department of Canadian Heritage by the Adaptation & Impacts Research Group, Environment Canada and the Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo. The views expressed in the report are those of the study team and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Parks Canada or Environment Canada. Catalogue No.: En56-155/2000E ISBN: 0-662-28976-5 This publication is available in PDF format through the Adaptation and Impacts Research Group, Environment Canada web site < www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/airg > and available in Canada from the following Environment Canada office: Inquiry Centre 351 St. Joseph Boulevard Hull, Quebec K1A 0H3 Telephone: (819) 997-2800 or 1-800-668-6767 Fax: (819) 953-2225 Email: [email protected] i Climate change and Canada’s national park system: A screening level assessment Le Changement climatique et le réseau des parcs nationaux du Canada : une évaluation préliminaire Project Leads and Editors: Dr. Daniel Scott1 and Dr. Roger Suffling2 1 Adaptation and Impacts Research Group, Environment Canada c/o the Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1 519-888-4567 ext. 5497 [email protected] 2 School of Planning Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1 Research Team: Derek Armitage - Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Geography, University of Waterloo Francis Gertsch - MES Candidate, School of Planning, University of Waterloo Andrew Giles - MES Candidate, Department of Geography, University of Waterloo Kevin Huang - MES Candidate, School of Planning, University of Waterloo Bonnie Hui - MES Candidate, School of Planning, University of Waterloo Jennifer Lenton - MES Candidate, Department of Geography & Environmental Studies, Wilfrid Laurier University Acknowledgements: The research team gratefully acknowledges the advice and assistance of the following individuals during the completion of this project: Dr. David Welch (Ecosystems Branch, Parks Canada) – critical reviewer, Murray Lister (Department of Geography, University of Waterloo) – data compilation and GIS work, Dermot Foley (David Suzuki Foundation) – critical reviewer, Andrew Giles (Human Resources Development Canada Summer Intern) – background research, Lisa Wenger (Adaptation and Impacts Research Group, Environment Canada) – background research and data compilation, Linda Mortsch (Adaptation and Impacts Research Group, Environment Canada) and Bill Taylor (Pacific and Yukon Region, Environment Canada) – scenarios development, Céline Racette (Parks Canada Reference Library) – assistance with background research, Dr. Christoph Stadel (University of Salzburg) - cover photo. Support provided by Parks Canada (Department of Canadian Heritage), Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (Environment Canada), and Human Resources Development Canada. ii Climate change and Canada’s national park system: A screening level assessment Le Changement climatique et le réseau des parcs nationaux du Canada : une évaluation préliminaire Table of Contents Abstract / Resume..........................................................................................................vii Executive Summary........................................................................................................ix Synthèse ........................................................................................................................xxi List of Tables and Figures ................................................................................................v List of Acronyms ..............................................................................................................vi 1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 2.0 National Parks Climate Change Scenario Development ................................ 7 2.1 Climate Modelling ......................................................................................7 2.2 Scenario Development ................................................................................8 2.3 Scenario Results ........................................................................................12 3.0 Climate Change Impact Assessment .............................................................. 27 3.1 Atlantic Parks ............................................................................................29 3.1.1 Cape Breton Highlands National Park ..........................................30 3.1.2 Forillon National Park ..................................................................32 3.1.3 Fundy National Park......................................................................35 3.1.4 Gros Morne National Park ............................................................37 3.1.5 Kejimkujik National Park..............................................................39 3.1.6 Kouchibouguac National Park ......................................................41 3.1.7 Mingan Archipelago National Park ..............................................43 3.1.8 Prince Edward Island National Park..............................................45 3.1.9 Terra Nova National Park ..............................................................47 3.2 Great Lakes – St. Lawrence Basin Parks ..................................................49 3.2.1 Bruce Peninsula National Park......................................................50 3.2.2 Georgian Bay Islands National Park ............................................53 3.2.3 La Mauricie National Park ............................................................55 3.2.4 Point Pelee National Park..............................................................57 3.2.5 Pukaskwa National Park................................................................60 3.2.6 St. Lawrence Islands National Park ..............................................62 3.3 Prairie Parks ..............................................................................................65 3.3.1 Elk Island National Park................................................................66 3.3.2 Grasslands National Park ..............................................................68 3.3.3 Prince Albert National Park ..........................................................70 3.3.4 Riding Mountain National Park ....................................................73 3.3.5 Wood Buffalo National Park ........................................................75 iii Climate change and Canada’s national park system: A screening level assessment Le Changement climatique et le réseau des parcs nationaux du Canada : une évaluation préliminaire 3.4 Western Cordillera Parks ..........................................................................78 3.4.1 Banff National Park ......................................................................79 3.4.2 Glacier National Park and Mount Revelstoke National Park........82 3.4.3 Jasper National Park ......................................................................85 3.4.4 Kootenay National Park ................................................................88 3.4.5 Nahanni National Park Reserve ....................................................90 3.4.6 Waterton Lakes National Park ......................................................93 3.4.7 Yoho National Park........................................................................95 3.5 Pacific Parks ..............................................................................................97 3.5.1 Gwaii Haanas National Park Reserve............................................97 3.5.2 Kluane National Park Reserve ....................................................100 3.5.3 Pacific Rim National Park Reserve ............................................103 3.6 Arctic Parks..............................................................................................106 3.6.1 Aulavik National Park ................................................................107 3.6.2 Auyuittuq National Park ..............................................................110 3.6.3 Ivvavik National Park Reserve ....................................................112 3.6.4 Quttinirpaaq (formerly Ellesmere Island) National Park ............115 3.6.5 Tuktut Nogait National Park........................................................118 3.6.6 Vuntut National Park ..................................................................120 3.6.7 Wapusk National Park ................................................................123 4.0 Conclusion ......................................................................................................127 4.1 Next Steps................................................................................................131 4.2 The Challenge Ahead ..............................................................................135 Notes ..............................................................................................................................137 References......................................................................................................................139
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