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Australian Mining M&M - Diversified Industry Update Resources Deutsche Bank Research Australasia Industry Date Australia 3 July 2019 Australian Mining M&M - Diversified Industry Update Resources Iron ore clad dividends James Gurry This reporting season dividends is something to hang on for Research Analyst +61-3-9270-4104 We are forecasting a dividend bonanza from the iron ore names this reporting sea- son not only because of high prices but also we see the use of buybacks now Chris Gawler restricted. So on top of ordinary payouts, special dividends are also likely to feature Research Associate +61-3-9270-4474 heavily. The most significant surprise is likely from FMG who we think can now afford yet another dividend so soon after its surprise May payment, and at the major Key Changes miners BHP and Rio Tinto, capex is increasing but relatively controlled, and both are Company Target Price Rating facing limations on buybacks due to different reasons. RIO.AX 89.80 to 91.00 - We forecast yields of 4% for BHP, 5% for Rio Tinto and another 3% for FMG on the Source: Deutsche Bank June half year payment alone. Taking into account December half years would, con- Top Picks servatively, see the total yield at 7%, 8% and 8% respectively, and our recent China South32 (S32.AX),AUD3.20 Buy trip suggested that iron ore prices plateau at the top for longer than we previously Whitehaven Coal (WHC.AX),AUD3.65 Buy expected ( note ). Source: Deutsche Bank While we think iron ore prices eventually normalise, we also see fundamental value Companies featured where expectations are low, but dividends still respectable at buy rated Whitehaven BHP (BHP.AX),AUD41.68 Sell and South32. Rio Tinto (RIO.AX),AUD104.75 Hold Fortescue Metals (FMG.AX),AUD9.15 Hold We have marked to market our commodity prices for the June quarter with earnings South32 (S32.AX),AUD3.20 Buy changes included within. Whitehaven Coal (WHC.AX),AUD3.65 Buy Source: Deutsche Bank Figure 1: Special dividends expected from the iron ore majors, and all 5 larger caps trading at mid-to-high single digit divi- dend yields even after the share price rises in the iron ore producers. Dividend summary Unit RIO FMG S32 WHC Ordinary cps AU 121 / US 85 AU 270 / US 191 AU 28 / US 20 AU 6 / US 4 AU 13 / US 9 Special cps AU 56 / US 39 AU 288 / US 204 AU 60 / US 42 na na Total Jun-half dividend cps AU 177 / US 125 AU 559 / US 395 AU 88 / US 62 AU 6 / US 4 AU 13 / US 9 Yield % 4.2% 5.3% 3.2% (unpaid portion) 1.7% 3.5% Jun-half dividend cps AU 177 / US 125 AU 559 / US 395 AU 28 / US 20 (unpaid) AU 6 / US 4 AU 13 / US 9 Dec-half dividend cps AU 100 / US 72 AU 240 / US 172 AU 45 / US 32 AU 9 / US 6 AU 15 / US 10 2H CY19 buyback cps na AU 64 / US 46 na AU 6 / US 4 na Fwd 12m dividend / buyback cps AU 277 / US 197 AU 863 / US 612 AU 73 / US 52 AU 20 / US 14 AU 27 / US 19 Yield % 6.6% 8.1% 8.1% 6.1% 7.6% Source : Deutsche Bank, Company data Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 066/04/2019. 3 July 2019 M&M - Diversified Resources Australian Mining Figure 2: DBe now ~25% above consensus for FY19 divi- Figure 3: BHP and RIO capital management history dends 2018 (RIO): US$3.3bn on-market and (A$ cps) 200 US$2.1bn off-market buy-back completed; 799 US$0.6bn and US$1.1bn to be bought back 118 through Feb-2019 and Feb-2020; Feb-2019: 395 160 Dec-2018 (BHP): US$5.2bn off- Nov-2007 (BHP): market buy-back and special US$23bn off- dividends of US$5.2bn (Jan-2020) market buy-back Aug-2010 (RIO): US$9.2bn buy-back Apr-2015 (RIO): Feb-2018 (RIO): 120 announced US$0.4bn off-market US$1.0bn buy- buy-back back announced 325 628 95 Mar-2007 (BHP): US$2.8bn off- market buy-back Sep-2017 (RIO): 80 US$1.9bn buy-back announced 40 Apr-2011 (BHP): US$6.3bn off-market buy- back BHP RIO FMG 0 Jul-18 Jul-17 Jul-16 Jul-15 Jul-14 Jul-13 Jul-12 Jul-11 Jul-10 Jul-09 Jul-08 Jul-07 Jul-06 Jul-05 Jan-19 Jan-18 Jan-17 Jan-16 Jan-15 Jan-14 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Consensus DBe Jan-05 BHP share price (A$) RIO share price (A$) Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Figure 4: BHP dividend summary Figure 5: RIO dividend summary 300 (USc/sh) Includes US Onshore sale 160% 600 (USc/sh) 140% proceeds 250 500 120% Progressive policy 120% scrapped 100% 200 400 80% 80% 150 300 40% 60% 100 200 40% 0% 50 100 20% 0 -40% 0 0% 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2021E 2020E 2019E 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2021E 2020E 2019E Special DPS Ordinary DPS Ordinary DPS Special DPS Payout ratio - RHS Minimum payout (50% of EPS) - RHS Payout ratio - RHS Target payout (40-60% of EPS) Source : Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data. *Note: 2015 Payout ratio is 346% (De-merger of S32) Source : Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data Figure 6: Iron ore has strongly outperformed oil and cop- Figure 7: Sector capex rising but not yet aggressive per YTD 130 (US$/t) 50,000 (US$m) 120 +52% 40,000 110 100 30,000 90 +10% 20,000 80 - 10,000 70 60 0 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Iron ore (62% Fe, CFR) Brent oil (indexed to iron ore) 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 LME copper (indexed to iron ore) BHP RIO S32 FMG WHC Source : Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Company data Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney 3 July 2019 M&M - Diversified Resources Australian Mining Dividend sweeping iron ore prices This reporting season looks to be a dividend bonanza from the iron ore names not only because of high prices but also we see the use of buybacks now restricted by thresholds already hit. Special dividends therefore are likely to feature heavily we think. Iron ore still makes up the majority of earnings across the sector however the base metals bear lurks and its only that iron ore has been the focus of the market. While iron ore prices have been the highest in years, the rest of the mining and resources sector has had a mixed year, base metals prices are depressed and oil prices have been volatile. The effects of stimulus induced Chinese steel demand and restricted supply (noting Rio Tinto's recent downgrade) should see iron ore supported into Q3 of 2019 and we think management and boards will possess a level of strong foresight on 2H cashflows. We think the biggest surprise will come from FMG who can now afford yet another "dividend rebate" to investors when they report results in late August this so soon after paying the out of cycle surprise dividend in May, we now factor in n FMG: A$28c up from 10c previously, for a 2H yield of 3.2% and a forward yield of 8.1%. Thus far the outlets for excess capital via extra capex investment let alone growth via acquisition remain largely subdued from the major companies BHP and Rio Tin- to. Incidently they are both up against buyback thresholds for different reasons (BHP on the 10% over 12 months rule, and Rio Tinto due to its largest shareholder creep) restricting this as an outlet. We now expect n Rio Tinto: A$559c for a 1H yield of of 5.3% and a forward yield of 8.1% on a 12 month view. n BHP: A$177c in 2H FY19, for a 2H yield of 4.2% and a forward yield of 6.6% on a 12 month view. Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney Page 3 3 July 2019 M&M - Diversified Resources Australian Mining BHP Top down discipline should result in more special dividends After completing the sale of its US Onshore shale oil business BHP completed a $5.2bn off-market buyback of BHP Ltd shares (Nov-2018; 8% of Ltd share count) and a $5.2bn special dividend (Jan-19). We forecast BHP can pay a AU 56cps / US 39 cps special dividend at its full-year results on 20 August (Q4 production 17 July), on top of a AU 121cps / US 85 cps ordinary dividend. We note that BHP is limited on buybacks as it approaches the 10% cap on the repurchase of Ltd shares on a rolling 12-month basis per s257B(4) and 257B(5) of the Corporations Act (Cth.), having repurchased 8% of Ltd shares in November 2018.
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