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Optimization of Reservoir Operation under Climate Change Scenarios for Flood Control and Irrigation: A Case Study of Kiew Kor Mah Reservoir in the Wang River Basin, Thailand by Ananya Suksri Nationality: Thai Current Degree: Bachelor of Engineering in Civil Engineering-Irrigation Kasetsart University Thailand Scholarship Donor: Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC), Thailand – AIT Fellowship May 2019 ABSTRACT The Kiew Kor Mah reservoir has problems in the current operation. There are flooding in downstream area many times. The previous rule curve needs to develop for reduce flood damage and to supply irrigation demand. The optimization process was applied the Harmony Search algorithm for determine the optimal rule curve. The aim of this study to improve reservoir operation. There are three parts in this study. Firstly, to develop rule curve by using Harmony Search algorithm. The rule curve from Harmony Search algorithm can gain the best benefit (compare with previous rule curve and existing operation). Secondly, presents the future climate projection in the Wang River Basin which considered three climatic variables: precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature. Three RCMs were selected to address climate model uncertainty. The Linear downscaling method technique was applied for correcting the data from climate models with observed climate data. The future climate was projected for three future periods: the 2020s (2010–2039), 2050s (2040–2069), and 2080s (2070–2099) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on the baseline period (1979–2005). The future precipitation may increase during the dry season (November to April) and decrease during the wet season (May to October) under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Average annual maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to increase in the future. Lastly, assess water resources especially water inflow by using The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model. Results from HEC-HMS model shows that the average annual discharge may decrease in future for both stations under climate change scenario. Keywords: Reservoir operation, Optimization reservoir operation, Flood control, Climate projection, Harmony Search algorithm, Optimal rule curve, Water availability ii TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER TITLE PAGE Table of Contents iv List of Figures vi List of Tables viii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Statement of the problems 2 1.3 Rationale 3 1.4 Objectives 3 1.5 Scope 4 1.6 Limitations of the study 4 2 Literature Review 5 2.1 Development of reservoir operation 5 2.2 Optimization reservoir operation 6 2.3 Climate change 11 2.4 Hydrology models 12 3 Study area and data collection 14 3.1 Wang river basin 14 3.2 Kiew Kor Mah dam 19 3.3 Data Collection for optimization 21 3.4 Data Collection for climate projection 21 4 Methodology 22 4.1 Conceptual framework 22 4.2 Harmony search algorithm 24 4.3 Future climate projection 28 4.4 Hydrological model 30 5 Result and Discussion 33 5.1 Historical data analysis of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir 33 5.2 Operation of the Kiew Kor Mah reservoir under 37 current climate 5.3 Climate future projection 42 5.3 Impact of climate change on Water resources 56 5.4 Operation of the Kiew Kor Mah reservoir in the 60 future iii TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER CHAPTER CHAPTER 6 Conclusions and Recommendations 6.1 Conclusions 69 6.2 Recommendations 71 REFERENCES 72 APPENDICES Appendix A 78 Appendix B 84 Appendix C 90 Appendix D 92 iv LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE TITLE PAGE 1.2-1 Water storage level of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir (Rule curve) 3 3.1-1 Reservoir storage space 14 3.1-2 Wang River Basin in Thailand and location of Kiew Kor Mah 15 Reservoir. 3.1-3 Schematic of Kiew Kor Mah Reservoir. 16 3.2-1 Top view of Kiew Kor Mah Dam 20 4.1-1 Overall research methodology 23 4.2-1 The steps in the HS algorithm 24 4.2-2 The procedure in the HS algorithm 25 4.2.2-1 Release zone of reservoir 27 4.4.1-1 Flowchart of Hydrologic Model (HEC-HMS) 30 4.4.1-2 Flowchart of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 31 5.1.1-1 The monthly inflow of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir from 2009 to 33 2017. 5.1.1-2 The monthly outflow of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir from 2009 to 34 2017. 5.1.1-3 The monthly storage of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir from 2009 to 35 2017 5.1.1-4 The monthly water demand of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir 35 5.2-1 Reservoir rule curve (Previous) of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir 37 5.2-2 Water storage base on previous rule curve of Kiew Kor Mah 38 reservoir 5.2-3 Reservoir rule curve (Modify by Harmony Search Algorithm) 38 5.2-4 Water storage base on Modify Rule Curve of Kiew Kor Mah 39 reservoir in 2009 to 2017 5.2-5 Reservoir rule curve of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir for dry year 5.2-6 Reservoir rule curve of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir for normal year 5.2-7 Reservoir rule curve of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir for wet year 5.3.1-1 Average monthly precipitation in Wang River Basin from 1979 to 44 2005 5.3.1-2 Average monthly maximum temperature in Wang River Basin 45 from 1979 to 2005 5.3.1-3 Average monthly minimum temperature in Wang River Basin 45 from 1979 to 2005 5.3.2-1 Projected monthly precipitation in Wang River Basin under (a) 48 RCP4.5 and (b) RCP8.5 scenarios. 5.3.2-2 Projected annual precipitation in Wang River Basin under RCP4.5 49 and RCP8.5 scenarios. 5.3.3-1 Projected monthly maximum temperature in Wang River Basin 51 under (a) RCP4.5 and (b) RCP8.5 scenarios. 5.3.3-2 Projected annual maximum temperature in Wang River Basin 52 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. 5.3.4-1 Projected monthly minimum temperature in Wang River Basin 54 under (a) RCP4.5 and (b) RCP8.5 scenarios 5.3.4-2 Projected annual minimum temperature in Wang River Basin 55 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios v LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE TITLE PAGE 5.3.5 Concluding Remarks 55 5.4.1-1 Hydrology model, HEC-HMS 56 5.4.2-1 Discharge and precipitation of Wang river basin 57 5.4.3-1 Average monthly discharge under climate change scenarios. 58 5.4.3-2 Future annual discharge trend under climate change scenarios. 59 5.5.1-1 Reservoir rule curve (Modified by Harmony Search Algorithm) 60 in 2020 to 2030 under RCP4.5 of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir 5.5.1-2 Water storage base on Modified Rule Curve of Kiew Kor Mah 60 reservoir in 2020 to 2030 under RCP4.5. 5.5.1-3 Reservoir rule curve (Modified by Harmony Search Algorithm) 61 in 2020 to 2030 under RCP8.5 of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir 5.5.1-4 Water storage base on Modified Rule Curve of Kiew Kor Mah 61 reservoir in 2020 to 2030 under RCP8.5. 5.5.2-1 Reservoir rule curve (Modified by Harmony Search Algorithm) 63 in 2031 to 2040 under RCP4.5 of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir 5.5.2-2 Water storage base on Modified Rule Curve of Kiew Kor Mah 63 reservoir in 2031 to 2040 under RCP4.5 5.5.2-3 Reservoir rule curve (Modified by Harmony Search Algorithm) 64 in 2031 to 2040 under RCP8.5 of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir 5.5.2-4 Water storage base on Modified Rule Curve of Kiew Kor Mah 64 reservoir in 2031 to 2040 under RCP8.5 5.5.3-1 Reservoir rule curve (Modified by Harmony Search Algorithm) 66 in 2041 to 2050 under RCP4.5 of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir 5.5.3-2 Water storage base on Modified Rule Curve of Kiew Kor Mah 66 reservoir in 2041 to 2050 under RCP4.5 5.5.3-3 Reservoir rule curve (Modified by Harmony Search Algorithm) 67 in 2041 to 2050 under RCP8.5 of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir 5.5.3-4 Water storage base on Modified Rule Curve of Kiew Kor Mah 67 reservoir in 2041 to 2050 under RCP8.5 vi LIST OF TABLES TABLE TITLE PAGE 2.1-1 Summary of advantages and disadvantages of optimization 10 techniques 2.3.1-1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 12 publish 4 sets of scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 3.1.1-1 Climate validation from weather stations of Wang river. 17 3.1.2-1 Average Monthly Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Wang 18 River Basin. 3.1.3-1 Evaporation rate from in Wang River Basin. 18 3.2-1 The detail of Kiew Kor Mah dam 19 4.4.2-1 Reported performance rating for R2, NSE and, PBIAS of HEC- 32 HMS model 5.1.1-1 The annual inflow of Kiew Kor Mah reservoir (MCM). 34 5.2-1 Calibration: comparison volume and number of spill and water 39 shortage between Previous rule curve, Existing operation and Modify rule curve from 2009 to 2014 5.2-2 Validation: comparison volume and number of spill and water 40 shortage between Previous rule curve, Existing operation and Modify rule curve from 2015 to 2017 5.2-3 The daily maximum of flood volume in Kiew Kor Mah 40 downstream area 5.2-4 Classification of annual inflow 40 5.2-5 Volume and number of spill and water shortage under Current 41 rule curve in dry year (2012 and 2015) 5.2-6 Volume and number of spill and water shortage under Current 42 rule curve in dry year (2009, 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2016) 5.2-7 Volume and number of spill and water shortage under Current 43 rule curve in wet year (2011 and 2017) 5.3.1-1 Validation: comparison volume and number of spill and water 44 shortage between Previous rule curve, Existing operation and Modify rule curve from 2015 to 2017 5.3.1-2 The daily maximum of flood volume in Kiew Kor Mah 44 downstream area from 2020 to 2030 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 5.3.2-1 Comparison volume and number of spill and water shortage 45 between Previous rule curve, Existing operation and Modify rule curve from 2031 to 2040 5.3.2-2 The daily maximum of flood volume in Kiew Kor Mah 45 downstream area from 2031 to 2040 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 5.3.1-1 Performance evaluation of bias correction for precipitation of 46 Wang River Basin 5.3.1-2 Performance evaluation of bias correction for maximum 46 temperature of Wang River Basin 5.3.1-3 Performance evaluation of bias correction for minimum 46 temperature of Wang River Basin 5.3.2-1 Rainfall projection under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three 47 future periods vii LIST OF TABLES TABLE TITLE PAGE 5.3.3-1 Maximum temperature projection under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 50 scenarios for three future periods.
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