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Starbreeze Information Technology | Sweden Commissioned research 6 March 2018 Starbreeze Information Technology | Sweden KEY DATA Three quarters to payday Country Sweden Bloomberg STARB SS Reuters STZEb.ST The game is on Share price 10.04 Once a niche form of entertainment, gaming has evolved into a rapidly Free float 80% Market cap (m) SEK 3,050 growing industry that pulls in more revenue than the film and music Website www.starbreeze.com industry. The global gaming market generates over USD 100bn in Next report date 09 May 2018 revenue a year, with a burgeoning player base of over two billion in 2017, many of whom are spending more on games than ever before. Video ABSOLUTE & RELATIVE PERFORMANCE game developer and publisher Starbreeze stands poised to profit from 20 this booming market thanks to the popular titles it has under its belt and its diversified business offering. 15 The chance to make a killing We have confidence in Starbreeze’s record and upcoming game releases 10 and see the company cashing in peak sales of SEK 2.6bn over our forecast period to 2021E. It will likely make a killing from the launch of the 5 much-anticipated OVERKILL’s The Walking Dead, slated for autumn Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 2018, and here we expect it to shift nearly 8 million copies over the course Starbreeze OMX Stockholm PI of three years. We base our estimates on the performance of comparable -1M -6M -12M YTD game titles, franchise interest, previous sales record and market trends. Absolute 16% -10% -39% 20% Relative 17% -10% -41% 22% Source: FactSet and Bloomberg Raising its game To combat the potential swings in earnings between major game VALUATION APPROACH releases, Starbreeze has broadened its operations, adding a publishing arm and investing in emerging technologies. Its games as a service approach and releases of downloadable content bolster its games’ lifetime and generate substantial revenue even years after the initial SEK SEK DCF 13.8 15.9 game launch. This predictable revenue stream helps to de-risk the business model and will likely improve Starbreeze’s earnings stability. Valuation 12 14 16 18 Based on our fundamental DCF approach and assuming a WACC of Source: FactSet and Nordea Markets between 7.9-9.1%, we derive an equity value per share between SEK 13.8 and SEK 15.9. This implies a 2020E EV/EBIT between 5.4x‐6.4x and 2020E P/E of 9.0x-10.3x. Nordea Markets - Analysts Dan Johansson SUMMARY TABLE - KEY FIGURES Analyst SEKm 2013/14 2014/15 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Predrag Savinovic Net sales 214 197 99 345 361 929 1,260 1,913 Analyst - growth 477.8% -7.7% -49.9% 249.6% 4.6% 157.0% 35.7% 51.8% EBIT 142 46 21 56 -151 -11 123 596 Alexander Fält - margin 66.5% 23.5% 21.3% 16.3% -41.9% -1.2% 9.7% 31.2% Analyst EPS 0.83 0.15 0.09 0.22 -0.55 -0.18 0.26 1.54 Jörgen Wetterberg - growth -82% -39% 140% n.m. n.m. n.m. 495% Senior Analyst DPS n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. P/E 8.2 78.1 170.0 87.0 n.m. n.m. 38.9 6.5 Henrik Nilsson EV/EBIT 5.9 55.8 170.9 96.9 n.m. n.m. 24.0 4.0 Senior Analyst EV/Sales 3.9 13.1 36.4 15.8 7.7 3.3 2.3 1.3 RoE 16.5% 6.6% 6.5% -11.7% -3.9% 5.3% 26.5% 33.7% Div. yield n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. FCF yield 12.6% -1.2% -1.0% -4.7% -25.0% 1.4% 2.5% 17.8% ND/EBITDA -0.9x -1.2x -3.6x -5.0x n.m. -0.2x -0.3x -0.7x Source: Company data and Nordea Markets Marketing material commissioned by Starbreeze Starbreeze 6 March 2018 Table of contents Factors to consider when investing in Starbreeze ........................................................................... 3 Valuation .......................................................................................................................................... 9 Company overview ......................................................................................................................... 18 The global games market ............................................................................................................... 29 Business area: Starbreeze Games .................................................................................................. 36 Business area: Publishing ............................................................................................................... 46 Business area – VR Tech & Operations .......................................................................................... 52 Historical financials ........................................................................................................................ 60 OVERKILL’s The Walking Dead ...................................................................................................... 67 VR estimates ................................................................................................................................... 73 Estimates ........................................................................................................................................ 75 Detailed estimates .......................................................................................................................... 83 Risk factors ..................................................................................................................................... 84 Reported numbers and forecasts ................................................................................................... 86 Marketing material commissioned by Starbreeze 2 Starbreeze 6 March 2018 Factors to consider when investing in Starbreeze Starbreeze is an established and respected name in the gaming industry, winning coveted partnerships with the likes of IMAX, Acer and SEGA. Its PAYDAY franchise is wildly popular and PAYDAY 2 has become one of the most popular games of all time, boasting the largest player community on the digital distribution platform Steam. Players of Starbreeze’s games are active, engaged and loyal, spending money on downloadable content years after initial launch. This fan base offers Starbreeze a solid platform from which it can market its future releases. We expect a windfall as early as autumn 2018 when it adds another sought-after game title to its name. In addition, Starbreeze has expanded its business in an effort to stabilise its earnings flows. Executed properly, Starbreeze can reach a sales CAGR of over 70% up to 2020E while de-risking the business model, warranting a rerating of the share. We calculate a valuation range of SEK 13.8-15.9 per share. We consider the following factors to be key when evaluating an investment in Starbreeze: We identify a number of key Transformation from a studio-for-hire to a global provider of world-class factors in Starbreeze’s entertainment experiences investment case Positioned to benefit from sizeable investments in its games pipeline, publishing projects and emerging technologies such as VR New business lines such as Publishing and VR add cash flows in periods between major game releases, potentially mitigating future earnings volatility Successfully applies its “games as a service” concept, with a frequent mix of paid and free updates for its games to prolong their lifetimes and earnings potential Key risk factors Its focus on AAA titles, which are released less frequently and require more time and resources than a typical game, makes it vulnerable to disappointments should its games garner a weak reception from players Starbreeze is dependent on its ability to attract and retain key employees, as the business is highly knowledge intensive The nature of the games industry, with a majority of revenues centred around the release of the game, could put pressure on finances if projects are delayed Competition in the industry is intense, which could put pressure on price and the number of sold copies. Competition does not only include other games developer, but also entertainment companies Attractively positioned in the value chain Aided by the success of its popular PAYDAY games, Starbreeze has transformed from Attractively positioned to a studio-for-hire into a global provider of entertainment experiences, penetrating take part in a USD ~100bn market opportunity multiple parts of the value chain in the games industry. We believe that Starbreeze is attractively positioned to take a share of the flourishing USD ~100bn market for games, which could grow at a 2017-20 CAGR of ~6%, according to market forecasts by Newzoo. Marketing material commissioned by Starbreeze 3 Starbreeze 6 March 2018 Source: Company data and Nordea Markets GLOBAL GAMES MARKET REVENUE GAMES REVENUE GROWTH Y/Y 140 12% 120 10% 100 8% 80 6% 60 USDbn 40 4% 20 2% 0 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Global games market revenue y/y Source: Newzoo and Nordea Markets Source: Newszoo and Nordea Markets When the dead comes knocking The eagerly awaited OVERKILL’s The Walking Dead (OTWD) is Starbreeze’s first OVERKILL’s The Walking major internally developed project and is slated for release this autumn. Starbreeze Dead a likely hit has poured its PAYDAY 2 earnings into the development of OTWD and the first trailer, unveiled in December 2017, garnered considerable interest from players, receiving more than 15 million views on YouTube and Facebook in the first week alone. The popularity of The Walking Dead universe does not seem to be waning. In fact, it seems to be more alive than ever. We believe the game could be Starbreeze’s next big franchise as it appeals to fans of The Walking Dead as well as the zombie genre. We are keenly aware that the gaming developer and publisher
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