RESEARCH

SHOP AFRICA 2016

SUB-SAHARAN SHOPPING CENTRE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS SHOP AFRICA 2016 RESEARCH

NAIROBI, 391,000 AFRICA: THE RETAIL COMPLETED SHOPPING OPPORTUNITY CENTRE SPACE GLA (sq m) FIGURE 1 With Africa’s property markets attracting increased interest GDP growth rates from regional and international investors, the retail sector The relatively small has become a major focus for development activity. WORLD cities of Windhoek SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 8% Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a wave This includes older and poorer quality and Gaborone WINDHOEK, of modern mall development, on the back centres alongside more recently NAMIBIA 7% of the growth of the region’s consumer developed malls. 260,000 currently have markets. This trend is underpinned by more shopping 6% Given that South Africa alone is estimated Africa’s long-term demographic and to have about 23 million sq m of shopping centre space than 5% economic growth. The population of centre space, more than seven times Africa has more than doubled over the as much as the rest of Sub-Saharan megacities such as 4% last thirty years to just over 1.1 billion, and Africa, there would appear to be room for Lagos and Kinshasa it is projected to hit two billion by 2040. considerable further retail development 3% Africa’s population is growing significantly across the region. At present, the largest 2% faster than that of any other global region. shopping centre market in the area

covered by this report is , with GABORONE, The population of Africa is not only BOTSWANA 1% nearly 400,000 sq m of shopping centre 247,000 growing, but it is increasingly urban; space. However, it is significant that the KINSHASA, while a little over 40% of the population DR CONGO 0% second and third largest markets by floor LILONGWE, FORECAST currently lives in cities, urban dwellers 10,000 MALAWI space are Windhoek and Gaborone, two 32,000 -1% are projected to be the majority by 2040. small capital cities in Southern Africa, DAKAR, Cities such as , Dar es Salaam SENEGA albeit in relatively mature and prosperous 45,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 and Lusaka are among the fastest L economies. The fact that megacities such Source: International Monetary Fund growing metropolitan areas in the world. as Lagos and Kinshasa have less floor RWANDAKIGALI, Lagos, now widely recognised as the space than these two cities, which are a 55,000 largest city in Africa, has a population fraction of their size, illustrates how much variously estimated at anywhere between further their retail markets have to grow. 12 and 22 million and the UN forecasts

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

ABIDJAN,

that it will be one of the world’s ten largest KAMPALA, 182,000 61,000 cities by 2030. FIGURE 2 Shopping centre floor space The demographic profile of Africa is Million sq m young and the middle classes are growing. By the African Development Bank’s definition, around 350 million people in Africa are classified as middle ABABA,

64,000 ETHIOPIA

class. Within this group, there are brand- ADDIS

ZIMBABWE HARARE, conscious, technology-savvy consumers 178,000 who demand access to the increasingly sophisticated retail formats offered by SOUTH Africa’s new wave of shopping malls. AFRICA MAPUTO, 81,000 Sizing the market 23 million sq m MOZAMBIQUE This report analyses the growth markets LUSAKA, of Sub-Saharan Africa and excludes South ZAMBIA 149,000 ABUJA, Africa, which has a large and mature NIGERIA shopping centre market, and the North 81,000 Africa region. Within the 47 countries covered by this study, Knight Frank SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LAGOS, ACCRA, Research estimates that there is currently (ex. South Africa) NIGERIA GHANA about three million sq m of existing 3 million sq m 121,000 103,000 shopping centre space, in malls with a Acacia Mall, Kampala Sources: Knight Frank Research/South African LUANDA, DAR ES SALAAM, minimum size of 5,000 sq m GLA. Council of Shopping Centres ANGOLA TANZANIA 113,000 107,000 Source: Knight Frank Research Floor space estimates include formal shopping centres with multiple retail units and a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 sq m. 2 Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this report 3 SHOP AFRICA 2016 RESEARCH

SHOPPING CENTRE MARKET GROWTH SHOPPING CENTRE Over recent years, the shopping centre concept has spread throughout an DEVELOPMENT PIPELINES increasingly wide range of Sub-Saharan cities. GLA (sq m)

Modern shopping centres are a relatively seen its retail offer continue to grow and the country’s pipeline is the largest in new phenomenon in much of Africa. In a improve. New developments opened the region. number of major markets, modern malls in 2015 included Garden City Mall (first Completing the top five hotspots are have only really started to appear over the phase, 33,000 sq m), while Two Rivers Dar es Salaam, where shopping centre last decade; Accra Mall (20,000 sq m), for Mall (62,000 sq m) is nearing completion. development is currently accelerating example, generally regarded as the first Both are bigger than any existing retail having previously lagged Nairobi, its modern mall in Ghana’s capital, opened in schemes in Nairobi and form part of 2008. Its success has encouraged further major mixed-use developments. main regional rival in East Africa; and development; West Hills Mall (27,000 sq m) Maputo, where retail development has opened in Accra in 2014 and extensions to Development hotspots grown as part of a construction boom that both malls are now in progress. has been largely driven by recent offshore Knight Frank’s research has identified gas discoveries. Developers have also turned their attention Nairobi, Luanda, Lagos, Dar es Salaam to Ghana’s second city, Kumasi, where and Maputo as the cities with the five Not all major cities are seeing such high pipeline schemes include Kumasi City Mall largest shopping centre development levels of development. To date, there (29,000 sq m) and Garden City Mall (22,000 pipelines in Sub-Saharan Africa, has been relatively limited activity in the sq m). The trend towards development in excluding South Africa. All of these capitals of Francophone West Africa, such second-tier cities is evident in a number as Abidjan and Dakar. However, a huge LILONGWE, MALAWI 7,000 cities fit the profile currently targeted by GABORONE, BOTSWANA 25,000 of other countries, as developers have investors in Africa, as large, fast growing new shopping centre project, potentially WINDHOEK, NAMIBIA 38,000 ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA 45,000 sought to gain first-mover advantage in cities in economies that have seen rapid the largest in Sub-Saharan Africa outside KINSHASA, DR CONGO 59,000 locations without existing modern malls. recent expansion. South Africa, has been announced for ABIDJAN, CÔTE D'IVOIRE 77,000 LUSAKA, ZAMBIA 83,000 Most notably, there are numerous projects Dakar by the Hong Kong-headquartered Nairobi has around 470,000 sq m of , 88,000 currently under construction in second-tier shopping centre space in the pipeline, investor Hermes-Sojitz. Kinshasa, the HARARE, ZIMBABWE 103,000 Nigerian cities such as Onitsha, Benin City while Luanda has more than 350,000 second most populous city in Sub- DAKAR, SENEGAL 125,000 and Abeokuta. sq m, albeit this figure includes several Saharan Africa, continues to see minimal KAMPALA, UGANDA 128,000 Within Sub-Saharan cities where the long-standing large-scale projects that modern development, while Addis Ababa, ACCRA, GHANA 138,000 shopping centre concept has already taken have seen significant delays to their a market with huge retail potential in one root, the trend is towards the development construction. Lagos has the third largest of Africa’s fastest growing economies, has ABUJA, NIGERIA 170,000 of bigger and higher quality malls. This is pipeline, but retail development is also seen modern mall development held back exemplified by Nairobi; already the largest spread out across the many other large partly as a result of restrictions on foreign MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE 193,000 market in the region by floor space, it has cities of Nigeria and, at a national level, retailers entering the country.

DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA 235,000 FIGURE 3 Ten largest cities in Sub-Saharan Africa* Population (millions)

LAGOS, NIGERIA 240,000

LUANDA, ANGOLA 351,000

NAIROBI KENYA 470,000 12.6m 11.1m 5.3m 4.8m 4.7m 3.8m 3.5m 3.4m 3.2m 3.1m LAGOS KINSHASA LUANDA DAR ES SALAAM ABIDJAN NAIROBI KANO DAKAR ABABA ADDIS IBADAN Source: Knight Frank Research Source: United Nations Population Division, 2014 estimates *Excluding South Africa Floor space estimates include formal shopping centres with multiple retail units and a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 sq m.

4 5 SHOP AFRICA 2016 RESEARCH SHOPPING CENTRE DEVELOPMENT HOTSPOTS

KAMPALA

Population 1.9 million Existing mall space 182,000 sq m Mauritania Pipeline space 128,000 sq m Mali Niger Key opened malls Garden City Shopping Mall (25,000 sq m) Acacia Mall (16,316 sq m) Chad Senegal Key pipeline schemes Kingdom Kampala Mall (42,000 sq m) Pearl Marina Estate Shopping Arcade (20,000 sq m) Ethiopia Guinea Benin Nigeria Ghana NAIROBI Central ACCRA Côte African Republic Population 3.8 million d’Ivoire Population 2.2 million Existing mall space 391,000 sq m Cameroon Somalia Existing mall space 103,000 sq m Uganda Pipeline space 470,000 sq m Pipeline space 138,000 sq m Key opened malls Garden City Mall (33,000 sq m, phase one) Key opened malls Kenya The Junction (26,000 sq m) West Hills Mall (27,000 sq m) Republic Accra Mall (20,000 sq m) Key pipeline schemes of the Two Rivers Mall (62,000 sq m) Key pipeline schemes Gabon Congo Rwanda The Hub (30,000 sq m) Mallam Junction Mall (21,800 sq m) Democratic Meridian City Mall (20,000 sq m) Republic of the Congo LAGOS Tanzania DAR ES SALAAM Population 4.8 million Population 12.6 million Existing mall space 107,000 sq m Existing mall space 121,000 sq m Pipeline space 235,000 sq m Pipeline space 240,000 sq m Key opened malls Key opened malls Quality Center Mall (25,000 sq m) Ikeja City Mall (22,650 sq m) Mlimani City (18,000 sq m) Palms Mall (20,500 sq m) Malawi Key pipeline schemes Key pipeline schemes Peninsula Plaza (31,000 sq m) Royal Gardens Mall (30,124 sq m) Mkuki House Mall (22,000 sq m) Novare Lekki (22,000 sq m) Angola Zambia Mozambique

Madagascar LUANDA Zimbabwe MAPUTO Population 5.3 million Population 1.2 million Existing mall space 113,000 sq m LUSAKA Namibia Existing mall space 81,000 sq m Pipeline space 351,000 sq m Population 2.1 million Pipeline space 193,000 sq m Key opened malls Botswana Existing mall space 149,000 sq m Ginga Shopping (20,000 sq m) Key opened malls Belas Shopping Centre (17,000 sq m) Pipeline space 83,000 sq m Maputo Shopping Centre (10,000 sq m) Marés Shopping Centre (9,000 sq m) Key pipeline schemes Key opened malls Mundial Shopping (56,000 sq m) Manda Hill Mall (43,400 sq m) Key pipeline schemes Muxima Shopping Centre (25,943 sq m) Levy Shopping Mall (28,000 sq m) Mall de Moçambique (63,000 sq m) Bay City Mall (28,000 sq m) Key pipeline schemes Cosmopolitan Shopping Centre (17,000 sq m) Society House Retail Mall (8,000 sq m) Source: Knight Frank Research/United Nations Population Division Floor space estimates include formal shopping centres with multiple retail units and a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 sq m.

6 7 SHOP AFRICA 2016 RESEARCH

SHOPPING CENTRE SPACE KEY MARKET PLAYERS OUTLOOK PER 1,000 PEOPLE A range of local, regional and international operators The shopping centre sector currently GLA (sq m)/1,000 people provides many of the most eye- are driving retail market activity across Africa. catching examples of commercial property development in Sub- Saharan Africa. Even though retail Retailers Development activity is also being construction activity has accelerated, driven by the growing number of South nearly all of the region’s major cities The newly developed malls of Sub- African investors targeting the rest of the Saharan Africa are absorbing demand remain extremely undersupplied KINSHASA, DR CONGO 1 continent. These include RMB Westport, LAGOS, NIGERIA 10 from a variety of retailers seeking to by international standards, and whose development projects include development is set to continue apace. ABIDJAN, CÔTE D’IVOIRE 13 expand their footprint in the region. Royal Gardens Mall (30,124 sq m) in DAKAR, SENEGAL 13 South African retailers such as Shoprite, As the sector grows and competition Lagos and Muxima Shopping Centre ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA 20 Pick n Pay, Game and Woolworths are between retail schemes intensifies, (25,961 sq m) in Luanda; AttAfrica, which LUANDA, ANGOLA 21 particularly prominent, anchoring many developers will increasingly look for has interests in Manda Hill Mall DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA 22 of the most modern malls. (43,400 sq m) in Lusaka, as well as opportunities outside of the current hotspots and turn their attention to ABUJA, NIGERIA 35 Other growing regional retailers include existing and pipeline schemes in Ghana; second and third tier cities. Within LILONGWE, MALAWI 37 the Kenyan supermarket operators and Resilient, which has targeted the cities that are already major focal KIGALI, RWANDA 45 Nakumatt and Uchumi which have been second-tier Nigerian cities. points for retail activity, such as Nairobi opening stores throughout East Africa, Along with local players such as Kenya’s and Lagos, selecting the right micro ACCRA, GHANA 46 while Botswana’s Choppies chain is Centum and Nigeria’s Persianas Group, locations for development will become on an expansion drive in Southern and these developers are in the process increasingly crucial to the success MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE 69 East Africa. of creating a stock of high quality of new schemes. Developers may International retailers targeting Africa have investable shoppingEAST AFRICA centreWEST assets AFRICA CENTRAL AFRICAneed to NORTHdifferentiate AFRICA theirSOUTHERN malls from AFRICA LUSAKA, ZAMBIA 72 most commonly entered the continent via throughout5.0 Sub-Saharan Africa. the competition by offering access to North African countries such as Morocco 4.5 international brands, leisure facilities and Egypt, or South Africa. However, South4.0 African investors have also and upscale consumer experiences. KAMPALA, UGANDA 98 there is now growing interest in the been3.5 actively acquiring existing malls Over the long term, shopping centre wider Sub-Saharan region from major throughout3.0 the region, notably Ikeja City development will go hand in hand with international retail groups. Mall2.5 in Lagos, which changed hands in November2.0 2015. The mall was sold by Africa’s increased urbanisation and its NAIROBI, KENYA 104 The French supermarket chain Actis,1.5 RMB Westport and Paragon to economic growth. It will play a major has made inroads in Francophone Africa Hyprop1.0 and Attacq, two South African role in shaping the future landscapes and is also poised to enter the Kenyan funds,0.5 in a deal reportedly worth of Sub-Saharan African cities. HARARE, ZIMBABWE 119 market in 2016. Wal-Mart has made c. US$910.0 million. progress in Africa via its acquisition in 2012 of a majority stake in Massmart, 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2025 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 which operates brands such as Game FIGURE 4 in Africa. Africa population forecasts (billions) Other international brands are present in the region’s premier malls; for example, EAST AFRICA WEST AFRICA CENTRAL AFRICA NORTH AFRICA SOUTHERN AFRICA WINDHOEK, NAMIBIA 730 there are Hugo Boss, Levi’s and Lacoste 5.0 stores at the Palms Mall in Lagos, while 4.5 Mango, Aldo and Benetton are at the Sea 4.0 Plaza in Dakar. Most international brands 3.5 enter the region through partnerships with local operators or franchise agreements. 3.0 2.5 Investors and 2.0 developers 1.5 The key developers behind Africa’s most GABORONE, BOTSWANA 1,067 1.0 modern new malls include Actis, the pioneering UK investor which 0.5 has been active in Africa since launching 0.0 its first Africa Real Estate Fund in 2006.

Current Actis projects include Jabi Lake 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Mall (27,000 sq m), which will be the Source: Knight Frank Research/United Nations Population Division largest mall in Nigeria’s capital Abuja. Source: United Nations Population Division Floor space estimates include formal shopping centres with multiple retail units and a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 sq m.

8 9 SHOP AFRICA 2016 RESEARCH

RETAIL SPOTLIGHT: NAIROBI The Kenyan capital Nairobi leads shopping centre development in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Among the cities covered by this report, Nairobi stands out as a major focus for Major shopping VILLAGE MARKET WESTGATE MALL THIKA ROAD MALL shopping centre development. It is ranked centre locations LOCATION: GIGIRI LOCATION: WESTLANDS LOCATION: ROYSAMBU as the largest market by existing shopping SIZE: 23,000 SQ M SIZE: 29,000 SQ M SIZE: 28,000 SQ M centre floor space and it has the biggest OPEN DATE: 1995 OPEN DATE: 2007 OPEN DATE: 2013 OPEN MALLS PIPELINE MALLS WELL ESTABLISHED, POPULAR EXCELLENT LOCATION; REOPENED IN 2015 RECENTLY OPENED MALL WITH HIGH FOOTFALL development pipeline. NEIGHBOURHOOD MALL FOLLOWING 2013 TERROR ATTACK

Shopping centres have been a feature of TWO RIVERS GARDEN CITY Nairobi since the 1980s when the Sarit LOCATION: RUNDA LOCATION: KASARANI 62,000 SQ M Centre, regarded as the city’s first formal SIZE: SIZE: 33,000 SQ M (PHASE ONE) OPEN DATE: 2016 OPEN DATE: 2015 mall, opened. Over the following decades, A NEW MAJOR REGIONAL DESTINATION MALL MAJOR NEW REGIONAL DESTINATION MALL Karura Nairobi’s retail landscape has been Forest ON THIKA SUPER HIGHWAY populated by other successful schemes ROSSLYN RIVIERA “The developers of such as Yaya Centre, Village Market and LOCATION: ROSSLYN SARIT CENTRE The Junction. However, the current wave SIZE: 11,000 SQ M LOCATION: WESTLANDS Nairobi’s modern of development is creating modern malls OPEN DATE: 2016 SIZE: 30,000 SQ M OPEN DATE: 1983 that are setting new standards for size and NEW NEIGHBOURHOOD MALL IN AN malls are building UPMARKET SUBURB NAIROBI’S FIRST FORMAL MALL; STILL quality within the market. VERY POPULAR new city hubs, YAYA CENTRE The most prominent shopping centre LOCATION: HURLINGHAM Nairobi GREENSPAN SHOPPING MALL where people can opening in 2015 was the first phase of SIZE: 13,500 SQ M OPEN DATE: 1989 LOCATION: DONHOLM Garden City Mall, comprising 33,000 sq m SIZE: 18,000 SQ M live, work, shop Ngong Road Forest WELL LOCATED, SUCCESSFUL, OLDER MALL 2011 GLA. This is part of a large-scale mixed- Jomo Kenyatta OPEN DATE: International Airport and play all on use project developed by Actis, which PRIMARY SHOPPING CENTRE WITHIN ITS THE JUNCTION MALL CATCHMENT AREA also includes residential, office and hotel LOCATION: LAVINGTON the same site, in elements. It is planned to be fully completed SIZE: 26,000 SQ M OPEN DATE: 2004 locations near to in 2017, when the mall will be expanded to NEXTGEN MALL LOCATION: NAIROBI SOUTH C POPULAR AND SUCCESSFUL MALL Oloolu 50,000 sq m. Forest SIZE: 65,000 SQ M key transport links.” Nairobi OPEN DATE: 2016 The development pipeline includes THE HUB National Park LARGE MIXED-USE PROJECT; MALL Ashmi Shah, Retail Portfolio LOCATION: KAREN ANCHORED BY NAKUMATT Centum’s keenly awaited Two Rivers SIZE: 30,000 SQ M Manager, Knight Frank Kenya project, which is expected to open in 2016. OPEN DATE: 2016 A 62,000 sq m mall will be delivered as NEW NEIGHBOURHOOD MALL IN AN SAFARICOM MALL UPMARKET SUBURB part of the first phase of this major mixed- (CRYSTAL RIVERS) CAPITAL CENTRE LOCATION: ATHI RIVER use scheme being built on a 100 acre GALLERIA MALL T-MALL SIZE: 20,000 SQ M site. Another key project set to open in LOCATION: LANGATA LOCATION: NAIROBI WEST LOCATION: NAIROBI SOUTH B OPEN DATE: 2017 SIZE: 14,700 SQ M SIZE: 16,000 SQ M SIZE: 14,000 SQ M 2016 is The Hub in Karen, one of Nairobi’s OPEN DATE: 2003 NEW MALL WITHIN AN AREA OF MAJOR OPEN DATE: 2010 OPEN DATE: 2009 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT wealthiest neighbourhoods, which will offer DOMINANT MALL WITHIN ITS CATCHMENT AREA MALL ANCHORED BY SUPERMARKET MALL WITH EXCELLENT VISIBILITY ON 30,000 sq m of retail space and is being MOMBASA ROAD developed by Azalea Holdings, a consortium of local investors. is understood to be poised to acquire Africa’s Massmart, made its Kenyan debut the difficulty of sourcing appropriate local established centres are in the process of Nairobi’s newest malls have leased well and Greenspan Mall in Donholm Estate. in 2015 as one of the anchor stores at partners is regularly cited as a major expanding or refurbishing as they seek to the rents that they have achieved compare Garden City Mall. obstacle to market entry. There are only protect their market share. These include favourably with the city’s more established The Kenyan retail market remains a small number of local firms with the the Sarit Centre, where there are plans for centres. Among the new projects, there is a dominated by local operators, despite Retailers from outside of Africa are taking expertise to partner with international an additional 23,000 sq m of retail space. clear trend towards mixed-use, rather than growing interest from international chains. a growing interest in Kenya, and the most retailers, with the most prominent being pure retail, development as office, residential The market leader is Nakumatt, which has high profile imminent market entrant is Despite the high levels of recent Deacons, which operates brands such and leisure facilities have been incorporated more than 20 supermarkets in Nairobi, the French supermarket chain Carrefour, construction activity, there are still as Adidas, Mr Price and Bossini in Kenya. into schemes. while other major players include Tuskys, which will be an anchor tenant at both opportunities for the development of Two Rivers and The Hub. The Turkish Security concerns and the recent volatility Aside from Actis, most of the developers Naivas and Uchumi. Largely due to the well-located, well-positioned malls across fashion retailer LC Waikiki will also be of currency markets have also contributed and landlords of Nairobi’s shopping centres strength of the local competition, South Nairobi. Several neighbourhoods remain entering the Kenyan market by opening to a number of international retailers’ are local Kenyan property owners. However, African chains have been relatively slow undersupplied for shopping centre a store at Two Rivers. decisions to put their market entry on hold. reflecting a trend seen elsewhere in Africa, to enter the Kenyan market in comparison space and retail demand will continue there is growing interest in the market with some other Sub-Saharan countries. Other international retailers are known In the face of increased competition from to be driven by the growth of Nairobi’s Garden City Mall from South African investors, and Stanlib However, Game, operated by South to be considering entering Kenya but Nairobi’s new malls, some of the city’s consumer classes.

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KNIGHT FRANK AFRICA Peter Welborn Managing Director, Africa +44 20 7861 1200 [email protected]

INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH Matthew Colbourne Associate, International Research +44 20 7861 1238 [email protected]

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