Issue No. 48 December, 2001

The International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP): A Study of Global Change www.igbp.kva.se IGBP is sponsored by the International Council for Science (ICSU)

Year of Mountains Discussion Forum 2002 is the Inter- With this final edition of national Year of Global Change for 2001 Mountains and it we have introduced a new is fitting that we section called “Discussion start the Science Forum” to promote dialogue Features section about global change issues. with an article on In this edition we kick off with an article by Joao mountains and Morais on the continuing need to ensure good partici- global change by pation of developing country scientists in the IGBP Mel Reasoner and network. Participation was strong at the Open Sci- co-authors. ence Conference in Amsterdam but many ask “where Another product of to from here?” We hope that “Discussion Forum” will the OSC, the article provides a good overview of the become a lively space for new ideas and perspectives parallel session on mountain regions. and welcome your contributions and feedback. page 2 page 31

More Science Features Contents From the OSC, Science Features Sandra Lavorel et Global Change and Mountain Regions...... 2 al give a global perspective on fire Fires in the Earth System ...... 7 and on page 11 Viktor Gorshkov Biological Theory and and others Global Change Science...... 11 challenge some of the fundamental Water, carbon and nutrient assumptions in cycles on the Australian continent ...... 15 global change science. Michael Student Poster Awards ...... 16 Raupach and colleagues share their latest work on the effect of climate gradients and land use changes on Past ecosystem processes and water, carbon and nutrient cycles in Australia (page 15) human-environment interactions ...... 23 and Isabelle Larocque presents the fascinating work of PAGES Focus 5 on past ecosystem processes and Extending atmospheric aerosol human interactions (page 23). Finally, Robert Charle- measurements to the global scale...... 26 son emphasises the need for satellite measurements Discussion Forum of atmospheric aerosols to be fully integrated with in situ measurements and modelling - the key to making Building capacity for science and effective use of satellite data in the future. human progress at global scales...... 31 The centrefold shows off the work of the final 4 winners of the student poster prize awarded at the OSC in July. People and events IGBP and Related Meetings...... 35 Science Features

threaten the future ability of Global Change and Mountain Regions: mountain regions to provide The need for an integrated approach goods and services we now take for granted. This session also by M. Reasoner, A. Becker, H. Bugmann, L. Graumlich, hosted the scientific debut for W. Haeberli, S. Lütkemeier and B. Messerli the Mountain Research Initiative (MRI), a multidisciplinary scien- tific initiative aimed at address- Mountain regions occupy about one-fourth of the Earth’s sur- ing global change issues in mountain regions and their con- face, they are home to approximately one tenth of the world’s sequences for the development population and provide goods and services such as water, of sustainable land, water and forest products, refugia for biodiversity, storage of carbon and resource management in moun- soil nutrients, and unspoiled recreation areas to more than half tain regions around the globe of humanity. Accordingly, they received particular attention in (Box 1). “Agenda 21” (Chapter 13, Managing Fragile Ecosystems), a programme for sustainable development into the 21st century Scientific rationale adopted by the United Nations Conference on Environment for a focus on and Development (UNCED) in June 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, mountains and more recently by the UN declaration for the year 2002 as the “International Year of Mountains”. In recognition of the From a scientific point of view, sensitivity of mountain environments, and the consequences the strong altitudinal gradients that changes in these environments might have for humanity, in mountain regions often pro- the scientific community has responded in recent years with a vide the best and sometimes more focussed interest in global change research in mountain even unique opportunities to detect and analyse global regions. Regional, national, and even global research initia- change processes and phenom- tives are now concentrating their attention on mountain areas ena, because and are, in many cases, initiating cooperative efforts. 1) meteorological, hydrologi- Mountains at the from the natural and the human cal, cryospheric and eco- logical conditions change OSC in Amsterdam sciences, and highlighted the potential for interdisciplinary strongly over relatively The recent intensification of cooperation, for the interest in global change development of synergies “We are rapidly approaching research in mountain regions between different important crossroads that was highlighted by a special disciplines and for the mountain session during the spatial and temporal require significant choices to be Global Change Open Science coordination of individ- made. Business as usual is no Conference (OSC) “Challenges ual research projects. The longer an option for much of of a Changing Earth” of IGBP, OSC mountain session the world’s environments, and the International Human provided an overview of Dimensions Programme on research across different mountain regions are not an Global Environmental Change mountain ranges of the exception.” (IHDP) and the World Climate Earth and specific infor- Research Programme (WCRP) in mation for stakeholders Amsterdam on July 12, 2001. on possible development short distances. Accord- The mountain session included paths over the next few decades, ingly, biodiversity tends to an evening discussion forum taking into account globalisation be high, and characteristic that clearly revealed the breadth processes and related cumula- sequences of ecosystems of interest in mountain research, tive and systemic environmental and cryospheric systems which spans various disciplines changes which may significantly are found along mountain

2 that mountain environments are essential to the survival of the global ecosystem and that many of them are experiencing degradation in terms of acceler- ated soil erosion, landslides, and rapid loss of habitat and genetic diversity. The seriousness and magnitude of these environ- mental problems in mountain regions have not abated over the last decade, and in many cases, they have been exacer- bated by compounding issues. Figure 1. Photograph of the Morteratsch Glacier in the region of Ber- Consequently, the statements nina (Grisons, Eastern Swiss Alps) showing the retreat of the made at the 1992 United Nations snout over the last 150 years. The ‘1850’ trimline is clearly vis- ible on the right-hand side of the glacier. Since ca. 1850 this Earth Summit in Rio are, unfor- glacier has lost approximately 15 percent of its area and 25 tunately, just as valid today as percent of its former length. The yearly measurements of the they were a decade ago. The tra- length changes started in 1878. The overall retreat from 1878 to 1998 - interrupted only by 4 years with minor readvances ditional perception that moun- - accounts for a total of 2 km with a mean annual retreat rate tains represent pristine systems of approximately 17 m/y. This long-term average was mark- completely isolated from human edly surpassed in recent years. The glacier receded by 38.9 m and 29. 6 m in 1999 and 2000 respectively. Photo by Max impact and only marginally con- Maisch. nected to economic, political and cultural centers of influence is rapidly becoming outdated. For slopes. The boundaries analyse the regional differ- example, the massive and wide- between these systems entiation of environmental spread retreat of alpine glaciers (e.g. ecotones, snowline, change processes. highlights the impact of global glacier boundaries, etc.) Related to the changing environ- climate change at high eleva- are often climatically sen- mental conditions along moun- tions and the consequences for sitive and may experience tain slopes, changes also occur lowland agriculture, hydroelec- rapid shifts due to envi- in socio-economic conditions, tric power, mitigation of natural ronmental change and land-use and land-management hazards and ecotourism (Figure thus can be used as indica- practices, resource exploitation 1). Similarly, greater physical, tors; and the appeal of mountain administrative and market inte- 2) the higher parts of many regions for tourism. Unsustain- gration of mountain and upland mountain ranges are not able management practices may agriculture with mainstream affected by direct human lead to the deterioration of systems has fundamentally activities and may serve the living conditions to the altered local resource man- as locations where the point where migration processes agement strategies leading to environmental impacts of are intensified; some mountain resource use intensification and climate change alone, areas become depopulated, overexploitation. Threatened by including changes in whereas others become over- the increasingly global scale of atmospheric chemistry, populated. Such processes have both systemic (impact environ- can be studied; a number of strong and mostly ments at global scale) and cumu- negative side effects. 3) mountain regions are dis- lative (operate at local scale tributed all over the globe, State and trajec- but are becoming globally per- vasive) human impacts, many from the equator almost tories of mountain to the poles and from oce- mountain systems are moving anic to highly continental regions along a trajectory that fits clearly climates. This global dis- within the rubric of critical Ten years ago, Chapter 13 of the tribution provides unique regions. Critical regions are Agenda 21 document acknowl- opportunities to carry out places where high rates of envi- edged the important role of comparative regional stud- ronmental change are manifest global change issues in moun- ies from widely separated in fragile ecosystems coupled tain regions by pointing out parts of the globe and to with economies strongly depen-

3 Research needs Considering the fragility of mountain environments, the complex network of factors, both physical and socio-economic, that may impact these environments, and the substantial direct and indirect consequences that changes in mountain regions may have on humanity, it is clear that an integrated approach to address- ing these issues is urgently required. For example, human- water interactions are global change issues that will very likely become critical in coming decades. Some mountains in arid and semiarid regions pro- vide more than 80 – 90% of the water resources to the sur- rounding lowlands for irriga- tion, drinking water, industry and domestic use (Figure 2). Bearing in mind that approx- imately 60 –70% of current freshwater resources is currently used for food production, and that the complex issue of food security is very likely to become Figure 2. Mt. Parinacota and Laguna Chungará in the Chilean Andes. Through quite important in the 21st cen- the process of orographic uplift, mountains effectively extract moisture from the atmosphere thereby providing the primary source of water for tury, effective water manage- many arid and semiarid regions. The transfer of water from mountains ment strategies will need to to surrounding lowland areas may be either direct via surface runoff consider a broad range of issues of rainfall, or delayed by a) accumulation as snow/ice and subsequent glacial flow into the ablation zone where it is released as meltwater, and consequences, will require and b) through groundwater flowpaths. Photo by Martin Grosjean. a focus on mountain regions, and will require input from both physical and social sciences. dent on local environmental the location of decision-making An integrative approach for resources and limited response and institutional arrangements. global change research in moun- capability. For the next few decades, glo- tain regions should consist of An additional source of balisation processes are likely to a series of coordinated experi- change in mountain environ- be at least as important as mental, observational, and mod- ments is related to the process environmental changes as fac- elling studies, with the aims of of globalisation, i.e. the growing tors promoting change in moun- detecting and articulating the global integration of social, tain regions. At the same time, consequences of global envi- political and economic rela- however, the cumulative and ronmental change and inform- tionships. Globalisation as it systemic environmental changes ing policy processes at local affects mountain environments may significantly threaten the to global scales. A number is reflected in demographic ability of mountain regions to of global change research changes, the incorporation of provide the critical goods and programmes are ongoing in mountain economies into extra- services described above, both mountain regions and many regional economies, the increas- to mountain inhabitants and of these are intensifying and ing influence of urban processes to supply the extra-regional exploring avenues for collab- and perspectives, increases in demands of other communities. oration and integration. Such consumption, and changes in

4 Box 1. Global Change and Mountain Regions: The Mountain Research Initiative In order to address the consequences of global change in mountain regions, an initiative for collaborative research on global change and mountain regions - the Mountain Research Initiative (MRI) - was developed and officially launched in July, 2001 with the opening of the Coordination Office in Bern. The MRI has been formally endorsed by the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) and four core projects of IGBP, i.e. GCTE, BAHC, PAGES, and LUCC. The ultimate objectives of the Initiative are: a) to develop a strategy for detecting signals of global environmental change in mountain environments; b) to define the consequences of global environ- mental change for mountain regions as well as lowland systems dependent on mountain resources; and c) to make proposals towards sustainable land, water and resource management for mountain regions at local to regional scales. To achieve the above objectives, the research under the MRI is structured around four Activities, each of which is divided into a small number of specific tasks.

Activity 1: Long-term monitoring and analysis headwater catchments; and 3.3) The relationship between of indicators of environmental change in diversity and ecosystem function, taking advantage of the mountain regions strong changes of diversity along altitudinal gradients. This element of the Initiative will focus on mountain- Activity 4: Sustainable land use and natural specific indicators of environmental change which are resources management sensitive to changes in climate, atmospheric chemistry, radiation, and land use/land cover. A set of four moun- The overall objective of this Initiative is to evaluate and tain-specific indicator groups is considered: 1.1) Cryo- enhance sustainable land, water, and resource manage- spheric indicators related to snow conditions, glaciers, ment strategies for mountain regions. Three priority areas permafrost and solifluction processes; 1.2) Terrestrial are suggested for assessment: 4.1) Changes in forest ecosystems, particularly mountain plant communities resources, with potential implications for agriculture, rates and soils; 1.3) Freshwater ecosystems, in particular high of erosion and magnitude of floods, and biodiversity; 4.2) mountain streams and lakes; and 1.4) Watershed hydrol- Intensification and/or extensification of agriculture (includ- ogy, i.e. water balance components of high mountain ing grazing), with potential implications for food security, rates of erosion and magnitude of floods, and biodiversity; watersheds/headwater basins. and 4.3) Changes in water resources due to factors such Activity 2: Integrated model-based studies of as changing agricultural practices, increasing temporary or permanent population, and/or increasing energy genera- environmental change in different mountain tion, with implications for downstream water supply, energy regions availability, flooding, and sediment transfer. To achieve the overall goals of the Initiative, it is neces- The MRI implementation Plan has been published as sary to develop a framework that permits the analysis number 49 in the Global Change Report Series and can and prediction of hydrological and ecological character- be ordered free of charge either from the IGBP secretariat istics and their linkages with land use and climate at vari- in Stockholm or the MRI Coordination Office in Bern ous spatial and temporal scales. Accordingly, this Activity or downloaded from http://www.igbp.kva.se/cgi-bin/php/ is organized around the following: 2.1) Development of frameset.php coupled ecological, hydrological and land use models for the simulation of land cover and land surface processes Web links in complex mountain landscapes; 2.2) Development of Mountain Research Initiative (MRI): www.mri.unibe.ch regional scale atmospheric models for mountain regions; 2.3) Integrated analysis of environmental change in Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle (BAHC): mountain regions by means of fully coupled land-atmo- www.pik-potsdam.de/~bahc/ sphere models or by qualitative assessments; and 2.4) Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE): Regional scale mountain land experiment to support the www.gcte.org development, application and validation of the above models. The Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Envi- ronments (GLORIA): www.gloria.ac.at/res/gloria_home/ Activity 3: Process studies along altitudinal Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment (GMBA): gradients and in associated headwater www.unibas.ch/gmba/ basins Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS): www.fao.org/ Ecological and hydrological field studies and experiments GTOS/ along altitudinal gradients and at sensitive sites can pro- International Human Dimensions Programme on Global vide invaluable data on potential responses of mountain Environmental Change (IHDP): www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/ ecosystems to anthropogenically induced environmen- tal change. Research themes to be addressed within Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC): this Activity include: 3.1) Development of indicators of www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/lucc.html mountain ecosystem response to environmental forcing Past Global Changes (PAGES): www.pages.unibe.ch/ factors to facilitate process-related interpretation of his- torical and paleorecords; 3.2) Assessment of runoff gen- Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring Sites (TEMS): eration and flowpath dynamics on steep hillslopes and in www.wsl.ch/relics/rauminf/riv/datenbank/tems/database_tems.html initiatives include the Global timescales (e.g. PAGES), process to adapt to and mitigate these Mountain Biodiversity studies along altitudinal gradi- consequences. This conclusion is Assessment (GMBA), the Global ents (e.g. BAHC, GCTE), and not newsworthy in and of itself, Observation Research Initiative monitoring studies from moun- as the value of mountain regions in Alpine Environments tain regions (e.g. TEMS Moun- as sites of scientific inquiry has (GLORIA), the Mountain tain Module, LUCC, GLORIA, long been recognized. However, Module of the Terrestrial GMBA). This will require build- the vast majority of work to Ecosystem Monitoring System ing new linkages and rein- date has not been structured to (TEMS) of the Global Terrestrial forcing existing networks of facilitate a synthetic understand- Observing System (GTOS), and collaboration between the vari- ing of the interactions between the Mountain Research Initiative ous core projects within IGBP climate, land surface processes, (MRI), a joint effort of IGBP, and between IGBP, IHDP and and human activities, taking IHDP, and GTOS. GTOS. Detailed information of into account the specific condi- A central objective of the MRI this nature, acquired from a tions in mountain environments. is to facilitate the development variety of research activities, will At present, the relevant tools of a synthesis of scientific infor- be necessary for testing the and observations often suffer mation that will be of benefit capabilities of models to repre- from mismatches in scale and to those addressing sustainabil- sent features including: a) the gaps in coverage. The rationale ity issues in mountain regions interplay between atmospheric for an initiative on “Global (Box 1). An example of how variability and changes in gla- Change and Mountain Regions“ the various disciplines may ciers, water cycles, vegetation, thus rests on the potentially interact is demonstrated by con- soils and the intensity of exploi- large payoff of a strategy that sidering the requirements of tation by human populations; links mountain regions of the the next generation of world as sites for moni- regional environmental “…the massive and widespread toring and understanding models. The potential for retreat of alpine glaciers high- the processes of change the development of fully as well as places where coupled mesoscale land- lights the impact of global cli- a predictive understand- atmosphere models for mate change at high elevations ing of the consequences mountain regions is par- and the consequences for low- of change is critical for ticularly exciting as such land agriculture, hydroelectric sustaining land and water models could prove to be resources. The proposed very useful for predicting power, mitigation of natural haz- activities of the Mountain the effects of both land ards and ecotourism” Research Initiative will use/land cover and cli- contribute not only to the mate changes on spatial scientific understanding of scales appropriate for the inves- b) the implications of processes the ongoing processes of change, tigation of global change in operating on time scales ranging but ultimately to suggestions for mountain regions and thereby from seasonal to actions directed at preserving provide a valuable tool for multicentennial; c) non-linear the ability of mountain regions addressing sustainability issues system responses and thresh- to sustainably provide the goods in mountain areas. The predic- olds within the complex inter- and services on which humanity tions of these models, however, actions under study; and d) has come to depend. As such, will only be robust if they changes in magnitude-frequency the initiative is well suited to are validated with information relationships and their conse- complement the contributions from sensitive terrestrial sites, quences in terms of resource of IGBP and its partner pro- and mountain regions provide depletion and of hazard to grammes to the “International excellent opportunities for the human populations. Year of Mountains”. acquisition of such data. Con- Conclusions As humanity and the planet sequently, it is imperative that Earth enter the 21st century, researchers in the modeling Mountain regions provide it is clear that the relationship community are able to dovetail unique and valuable settings between the two must change. their efforts with those involved in which to study the specific We are rapidly approaching in reconstructing mountain pal- facets of environmental changes, important crossroads that aeoenvironments on a variety of their regional consequences, and require significant choices to be resource management strategies made. Business as usual is no

6 longer an option for many of ences. This is particularly true Mountain Research Center, Montana State University, P.O. Box 173490, 106 the world’s environments, and for global change research in AJM Johnson Hall, Bozeman, mountain regions are not an mountain regions given the sen- MT 59717-3490 exception. As we approach these sitive and complex nature of the USA crossroads, it is clear that global relationship between mountain Wilfried Haeberli change research in mountain environments and the people Institute of Geography, University of regions will become increasingly who inhabit and are dependent Zurich, Zollikerstr. 107 8008 Zürich, Switzerland important in the coming upon them. decades. The Amsterdam Decla- *Mel Reasoner Sabine Lütkemeier MRI Coordination Office, Bärenplatz 3 BAHC Office, Potsdam Institute for Cli- ration signed by more than 800 CH-3011 Bern, mate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, scientists at the IGBP OSC meet- Switzerland 14412 Potsdam, ing in July, 2001 states that the Alfred Becker Germany accelerating human transforma- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, tion of the Earth’s environment Bruno Messerli 14412 Potsdam, Institute of Geography, University of is not sustainable and that a new Germany Bern, CH-3012 Bern, system of global environmental Harald Bugmann Switzerland science is required that will inte- Mountain Forest Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, 8092 Zürich, grate across disciplines, environ- Switzerland ment and development issues Lisa Graumlich * Contact person for enquiries. and the natural and social sci-

scale fire events compared to Fires in the Earth System: The need the warmer and drier scenario. for integrated research Indeed in the warmer and drier climate scenario frequent by S. Lavorel, E. F. Lambin, M. Flannigan and M. Scholes medium-sized fires prevented fuels from building up across the landscape and limited the number of large-scale fire Fire is the most important disturbance worldwide in terms of events. In contrast, in the area and variety of biomes affected. Every year, fire affects warmer and wetter climate sce- extensive areas of savannas (200-400 Mha annually), cir- nario frequent small-sized fires cumboreal forest (5-15 Mha annually) and many other ecosys- allowed buildup of highly flam- tems like woodlands and shrublands of mediterranean climate mable late-successional fuels across the landscape that were regions. Fire, and its use by humans as a management tool, highly susceptible to burning have now and in the past caused dramatic changes in the when climate conditions structure and functioning of ecosystems, and are now shown allowed [10]. to significantly affect atmospheric composition. Fire regimes In many regions of the world, and their effects on terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive including tropical areas, natural to all global change factors, in particular to climate change ignition only accounts for a and land-use change. For all these reasons, the study of fire small fraction of the number of and how it did, does, and will respond to global environmental fires and area burned. In these change has attracted an impressive amount of research activ- regions, while the timing of ity within IGBP and elsewhere. rainfall and rates of vegetation senescence define the predispos- By physical nature fire ignition climate on fire regimes, e.g. ing conditions for fires, land and propagation are strongly in the boreal forest (Figure use influences the amount and linked to climate. Changing cli- 1). These simulations uncovered exact timing of burning within mate, and especially increased unexpected changes in the dis- the window of opportunity pro- summer maximum tempera- tribution of very large fires due vided by natural conditions. For tures, lead to increased fire risk to complex interactions between many farmers, fire is indeed an in fire-prone ecosystems. Land- climate, vegetation, and fire: essential management tool. In scape simulations have shown the warmer and wetter scenario dense humid forests fires are dramatic effects of changing experienced many more large- used for land-cover conversion

7 reduces the amount of natu- ral fuels, although intensifi- cation may lead to a higher temporal frequency of fire, due for instance to the burn- ing of crop residues. Con- versely, uncommonly large fire regimes have been observed in Mediterranean Europe as a result of the conjunction of unusually dry and hot summers and fuel accumulation after the extensification or cessation of agro-pastoral activities. Landscape fragmentation by land use can also cause a reduction in the sponta- neous propagation of fires. However forest fragmenta- tion caused by selective log- ging may be an exception since it may result in an Figure 1. Simulation of the potential consequences of different precipitation regimes in the northeast interior region of Alaska, using the model increase in the number and ALFRESCO. The experiment implemented an instantaneous 2 degree areas burned by fires. Indeed C growing-season temperature increase with 2 different precipitation the increased occurrence of regimes (a 20% increase and 20% decrease from current). (from Turner et al. 2001) fire entering into the moist forests once selective logging has been undertaken creates a positive feedback, where or for agricultural rotations. In therefore modify opportunities fire-affected forest becomes savannas, the main purpose for fire ignitions. In the recent more prone to subsequent fires of burning is to prevent the decades, exceptional fire events and degradation [3]. Increased replacement of the herbaceous in tropical rainforests have connectivity between forest strata by woody biomass and increased in frequency and mag- clearings and pastures (with to enhance, in the short-term, nitude in relation to El Niño easily flammable vegetation) climatic events [6,8]. During increases fire spread as well as it “ normal “ years, "…simulations uncovered the patterns of burn- unexpected changes in the ing have changed in most regions. distribution of very large fires. Land-use …warmer and wetter sce- changes also control nario experienced many biomass burning indirectly through more large-scale fire events their effects on fuel compared to the warmer and availability and spa- drier scenario" tial arrangement. Human alterations of landscapes have the production of some grass a profound influence species for grazing by domestic on the amount of and wild animals. In combi- biomass that can be nation with increasing climatic burned. For example, risk, changing land use can agricultural expansion A landsat image showing active savanna fires in north- ern Australia, recently changing direction due to a wind shift. The hot-pink is active fire, and the blue is smoke. Source: Grant Allen, Northern Territory Bush Fires Council, Darwin. 8 carbon emissions, confirmed by airborne and but during active ship-based measurements. Glob- fire years the ally the extent of biomass burn- amount of carbon ing produces some 40% of released by forest the world’s annual production

fires in Canada is of CO2, and also significantly comparable to the accounts for the production of amount released by other greenhouse gases such as burning fossil fuels CO (32%), methane (10%), tro- (Figure 2). pospheric ozone (38%) and over A savanna fire in Northern Australia. Source: Smoke and Barbie McKaige, CSIRO, Darwin. excess tropo- “Because of its global extent spheric ozone, both by-prod- fire is indeed the disturbance and enhances overall fire suscepti- ucts of biomass burning, of most significance for the bility [4]. have long been observed The global importance of fire net carbon balance of terres- over large regions of the relates to direct feedbacks from tropics. For instance trial ecosystems. The annual fire events and fire-induced vege- savannas are thought to C flux to the atmosphere from tation changes to the atmosphere, be responsible for biogeochemical cycles and land global savanna and forest approximately 36% of the use, via several ecosystem goods fires is estimated to be in the global total emissions and services. Fire impacts, and from biomass burning [1]. range of 1.7 to 4.1 Pg.” their modifications by land use The highest smoke aerosol change, are thereby of accute rel- and tropospheric ozone evance to human societies and amounts occur over southern 86% of black soot [5]. Increases global change. Africa and the adjacent Atlan- in biomass burning resulting Because of its global extent fire tic, where a strong ozone, bio- from changing climate and land is indeed the disturbance of most mass-burning link has been use therefore have the potential significance for the net carbon bal- ance of terrestrial ecosystems. The annual C flux to the atmo- sphere from global savanna and forest fires is estimated to be in the range of 1.7 to 4.1 Pg. Though at large spatial scales the magnitude of the carbon flux associated with landscape disturbances is typically not large in comparison to ecosys- tem photosynthesis and respi- ration, the magnitude of the disturbance can be a critical factor in determining whether an ecosystem or region is a carbon sink or source. For example, the net carbon balance of Canadian forests has changed from a strong carbon sink during the first part of the 20th century to a weak source over the last few decades Figure 2. Direct carbon emissions from large fires(>200 ha) for Canada, 1959 due to increased landscape to 1999. Carbon released was determined from the fuel consump- disturbances [7]. Preliminary tion as calculated by using the Canadian Fire Behavior Prediction System. During extreme fire seasons like 1995 (direct emissions from modelling results show great fire exceeded 115 Tg C per year) the carbon released approaches the interannual variability in carbon emissions from fossil fuels for Canada (150 Tg C per year). Error bars are estimated bounds of uncertainty. (from Amiro et al. 2001)

9 developments should lead to regional and global syntheses, including the assessment of relative vulnerabilities across regions to integrated global change scenarios that couple climate and land use. Sandra Lavorel, CEFE CNRS 1919 route de Mende 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France Figure 3. A conceptual framework for the development of integrated fire research Email: [email protected] within IGBP II Eric F. Lambin, Universite Catholique de Louvain Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium Email: [email protected] to lead to powerful positive also across compartments of the Mike Flannigan feedbacks through the effects of Earth System (terrestrial eco- Canadian Forest Service these emissions on climate. systems, humans, climate and Alberta T6H 3S5, Canada As pointed out in the exam- atmosphere). Place-based syn- Email: [email protected] ples above fire regimes and theses will form the initial core Mary Scholes their effects on ecosystems, the of this new approach, focussing University of Witwatersrand, atmosphere, and human societ- on regions selected for data Johannesburg 2000, South Africa ies involve most of the time availability and global impor- Email: [email protected] multi-scale phenomena, com- tance, such as the LBA [9], plex interactions and feedback or African savannas [11]. Later loops, which require multi-dis- ciplinary approaches. However most fire research to date has References focused on single aspects such 1. Andreae, M.O. and Merlet, P. (2001) Emissions of trace gases and aero- as the effects of climate on fire sols from biomass burning. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, in press risks, the effects of land use on 2. Amiro, B.D., J.B. Todd, B.M. Wotton, K.A. Logan, M.D. Flannigan, B.J. Stocks, J.A. Mason, D.L. Martell, and K.G. Hirsch (2001) Direct carbon fire regimes, the effects of fires emissions from Canadian forest fires, 1959 to 1999. Canadian Journal of on land cover or the quantifica- Forest Research 31: 512-525 tion of emissions from burned 3. Cochrane, M. A., Alencar, A., Schulze, M.D., Souza Jr., C.M., Nepstad, areas to the atmosphere. What is D., Lefebvre, P. and Davidson, E.A. (1999) Positive feedbacks in the fire dynamic of closed canopy tropical forests, Science 284: 1832-1835. still lacking in order to be able to 4. Cochrane, M. A. (2001) Understanding the impacts of tropical forest provide policy makers and land fires. Environment. Octobre 2001 . : 29-38 managers with an assessment 5. Crutzen, P. J., and Andreae, M. O. (1990) Biomass burning in the Trop- of the potential consequences of ics: impact on atmospheric chemical and biogeochemical cycles, Sci- ence 250:1669-1678 alternative courses of action is 6. Elvidge C.D., Hobson V.R., Baugh K.E., Dietz J.B., Shimabukuro Y.E., an integrated view including the Krug T., Novo E.M. and Echavarria F.R. (2001) DMSP-OLS estimation combination of causes, effects of tropical forest area impacted by surface fires in Roraima, Brazil : 1995 and feedbacks relating fire and versus 1998. International Journal of Remote Sensing 22 : 2661-2674. global change, and how these 7. Kurz W.A., and Apps M.J. (1999) A 70-yr retrospective analysis of carbon fluxes in the Canadian forest sector. Ecological Applications 9: will affect societies through the 526-547. alteration of ecosystem goods 8. Malingreau, J. P., Stephens, G., and Fellows, L. (1985) Remote sensing and services. A group of sci- of forest fires: Kalimantan and North Borneo. Ambio 17: 49-55 entists from GCTE, LUCC and 9. Nepstad, D. C., Veríssimo, A., Alencar, A., Nobre, C., Lima, E., Lefeb- vre, P., Schlesinger, P., Potter, C., Moutinho, P., Mendoza, E., Cochrane, IGAC are developing a concep- M., and Brooks, V. (1999) Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian tual framework for the integra- forests by logging and fire, Nature 398: 505-508. tion of fire research within 10. Turner, M.G., Collins, S.L., Lugo, A.L., Magnuson, J.J., Rupp, T.S., and the future IGBP II (Figure 3). Swanson, F.J. 2001. Disturbance dynamics and ecological response: the contributions of long-term ecological research. BioScience, in press The objective of such a frame- 11. Van Wilger, BW., Andreae, MO., Goldhammer, JG and LIndesay, JA work is to organise research 1997 Fire in Southern African Savannas: Ecological and Atmospheric that emphasises causal and perspectives. Witwatersrand University Press, Johannesburg, South effect relationships, feedbacks Africa pp 1-251 and nonlinearities within but

10 biological species are placed Biological theory and under human-created conditions where organisms with proper- global change science ties satisfying the corresponding by V. Gorshkov, A. Makarieva, B. Mackey and V. Gorshkov human needs can be selected, while the wild-type organisms are artificially eliminated from the population. The possibility Today the anthropogenic transformation of the biosphere is of artificial creation of new sorts growing exponentially. This is accompanied by an equally of plants and breeds of animals rapid deterioration of environmental conditions favourable for is interpreted as empirical evi- humans on both local and global scales. The now well-estab- dence proving the existence of lished coupling of local and global processes raises issues genetic adaptation. associated with the role of ecological systems undisturbed The two principles are exten- sively employed in various by modern technological society in maintaining a life-compat- aspects of the global change ible environment on Earth. As a consequence, the biological/ research. For example, the ecological component of global change science is conspic- “adaptation” principle under- uously expanding. It is therefore reasonable to expose to pins a fundamental strategy of close scrutiny those theoretical biological principles that are conservation programs aimed at employed in global change science, bearing in mind the poten- preserving the biological diver- tial large-scale practical implications of global change studies. sity of Earth under conditions The purpose of this brief article is to introduce the reader to of global change. Significant such a critical re-examination of two biological principles, for resources and scientific efforts the purpose of stimulating ongoing scientific dialogue on this are allocated to studying and issue. preserving the genetic variabil- ity of the endangered species There are two related theoretical inition the most fitted to the because this variability is principles that have been bor- corresponding environment and assumed to be indispensable in rowed by global change science enjoy the highest frequency in giving the species the capacity from biology and are now used the population. When the envi- to adapt to and survive in the to integrate biological factors ronmental conditions change, continuously changing into global change studies. different genotypes may appear environment. The limitation These are the principles of “lim- to be most fitted and will dom- principle is widely used in itation” and “adaptation”. the analysis of the global According to the limitation carbon budget – a central principle, productivity of “It is easy to see that if topic in global change stud- biological systems is lim- the biotic regulation of the ies. It is assumed that ited by the least available environment is in action, the the oceanic biota does not nutrients. For example, the react to the human-induced productivity of agricultural “adaptation” and “limitation” increase in concentrations systems can be elevated principles cannot be valid for of atmospheric and, con- by introducing fertilisers describing the natural biota.” sequently, dissolved carbon that contain some particu- because its functioning is lar chemical elements. limited by nutrients other The adaptation princi- than carbon (nitrogen, inate the population. If there ple refers to the proposition phosphorus, iron etc.). As a are no genotypes fitted to a that biological species adapt result, the oceanic dissolved new environment, the popula- genetically to changing environ- organic carbon pool is excluded tion becomes extinct. mental conditions. Any popula- from considerations of the As well as the limitation tion is composed of individuals global carbon cycle changes. On principle, the adaptation prin- with different genetic composi- the contrary, the terrestrial biota, ciple has been verified in arti- tion (different genotypes). The which is believed to be fertilised ficial, human-supported genotypes allowing their carri- by the excessive carbon (limiting systems. During artificial selec- ers to produce the maximum nutrient), is considered to be number of offspring are by def- tion, populations of natural

11 Figure 1. Possible different views on the global carbon cycle as dictated by acceptance/rejection of the limitation principle. Vectors indicate the three-year (1991-1994) changes in carbon and oxygen content in the major global reservoirs: A — atmosphere, F — fossil fuel, BL — land biota, S — dissolved inorganic carbon of the ocean, BO — oceanic biota (dissolved organic carbon). Vector slopes are determined from the stoichiometric ratios a ∫ O2/CO2 for the land biota (a = 1.10±0.05), oceanic biota (a = 1.30±0.03, Redfield ratio) and fossil fuel (a = 1.38±0.04), and by direct measurements for the atmosphere (a = 2.2±0.2, Keeling et al. 1996). Black vectors: Global carbon cycle as predicted by the limitation principle (from Keeling et al. 1996): the oceanic biota vector BO is missing, the land biota BL becomes a large net sink of carbon. Green vectors: Global carbon cycle if one accounts for possible reaction of the oceanic biota (from Gorshkov and Makarieva, 1998): the oceanic biota ensures a considerable sink of carbon, the land biota represents a net source of carbon to the atmo- sphere in accordance with direct measurements of carbon flows from cultivated lands. (The inorganic carbon sink S was determined from 13C/12C data under the assumption that the rate of inorganic carbon uptake by the ocean grows proportionally to the relative increment of atmospheric CO2.)

the critical carbon sink in terms itself. Similarly, global change the two principles noted above of the contemporary greenhouse processes are impacted by eco- have been uncritically adopted problem, see Figure 1. logical communities rather than without any detailed analysis of As already noted, the valid- by individual organisms and their applicability to describing ity of these two principles in until very recently have been the long-term behaviour of natu- accounting for biological ral ecological communities. systems has been tested on In the meantime, the examples of organisms arti- “Given the extent to which independent development ficially extracted from their the “adaptation” and “limi- of both empirical and natural ecological niches. theoretical global change Moreover, they were tested tation” principles” influence research has outlined the using time periods not global change science, possibility of a different exceeding the average issues associated with approach to the problem human life-span. For exam- whether or not they are sci- of biota-environment inter- ple, the limiting principle actions, where the natural predicts a short-term entifically valid is of more biota is largely responsible increase in productivity of than academic interest.” for formation and mainte- a fertilised plant, but says nance of a life-compatible nothing about the processes environment on the planet. of soil erosion and the Functioning of natural eco- characterised by a longer time general instability of cultivated logical communities compen- scale (e.g. the anthropogenic biological systems where such sates all external environmental perturbation of the atmospheric fertilisation is widely used. disturbances, stabilising the composition is more than hun- These negative effects take a environment in a certain opti- dred years old). Nevertheless, longer time to become apparent mum state. (Information needed following recognition in the sci- and are caused by complex for such regulation should be entific community of the need to interactions among various then coded in the genomes of incorporate biology into global organisms rather than by pro- biological species that form the change studies, we suggest that cesses in the fertilised plant ecological community.) It fol-

12 lows that anthropogenic trans- port the “adaptation” and “lim- nity may degrade together with formation of natural genetic itation” principles. When an its environment. An analogy of programs of species in the additional amount of a certain such a long-term experiment can course of artificial selection, as nutrient is introduced into an be found in agriculture. Primary well as direct anthropogenic dis- ecosystem, it leads to increased productivity in modern agricul- turbance of natural ecological productivity of the corre- tural systems is currently sus- communities, disable the pro- sponding ecological community, tained by continuous increase posed mechanism of biotic regu- which is considered as an exper- in supply of fertilisers and lation. imental proof of the limitation is accompanied by continuous It is easy to see that if the principle. However, an alter- degradation of environmental biotic regulation of the environ- native explanation is possible, conditions, e.g. soil erosion, ment is in action, the “adapta- namely, that the increased pro- which is in agreement with tion” and “limitation” principles ductivity represents the biota’s the second explanation of the cannot be valid for describing stabilising response to the dis- observed phenomena. the natural biota. turbance of the optimum nutri- Empirical evidence First, if the biota forms and ent concentration. By increasing interpreted in favour of the maintains its “adaptation” principle can environment, there cannot “The scientific community be summarised as follows: be any nutrients that changes in environmental would limit its function- must foster the fearless re- conditions bring about ing. The very notion of examination of cherished changes in the genetic and limitation becomes mean- modes of thinking should morphological properties ingless. Second, species of individuals. However, cannot adapt genetically prove inadequate in meeting appearance of new genetic to environmental changes, the environmental challenges variants in an altered envi- because if the biotic reg- we currently face.” ronment may be a con- ulation of the environ- sequence of erosion (i.e. ment exists, their reaction decay) of the normal to environmental change genetic program of the spe- its productivity, the biota is able should be compensatory (not cies rather than acquisition of to return the nutrient concen- adaptive). In other words, the some new properties. Under tration in the environment to species do not change them- natural environmental the optimum in the shortest pos- selves, but return the environ- conditions such erosion is pre- sible time, storing the excessive ment to its (pre-perturbation) vented by natural selection, nutrient amounts in the form initial state. which effectively “monitors” a of additionally synthesised inac- If species changed genetically great variety of morphological tive compounds. Which of the and became adapted to a new properties in individuals. In two explanations is true can be environment, there would be no artificial or significantly dis- discerned by a long-term contin- need for them to return the envi- torted environments only a few uation of the experiment. If it ronment to its previous state. basic morphological properties is indeed limitation of primary Similarly, if there existed nutri- of individuals are “monitored”, productivity by the respective ents limiting functioning of the namely those directly related to nutrient, then the community biota, this would mean that viability and artificially selected will keep the increased produc- biotic regulation of the envi- qualities. Thus, genetic defects tivity for a long time, given that ronment is impossible. This is may accumulate up to the lethal the corresponding nutrient is because the “limitation” princi- threshold. Such a process will continuously supplied. No envi- ple implies an absence of biotic be manifested as changes in the ronmental degradation is to be reaction to changes in non-limit- genetic composition of the pop- expected. If, on the contrary, it ing nutrients (as per the above ulation but will have nothing to is a stabilising reaction of the example with the oceanic biota). do with a stable state of adapta- community, then, if the pertur- On the other hand, within tion to a new environment. In bation is artificially supported the biotic regulation approach it accordance with this view, the for a long time despite the com- is possible to offer a different majority of artificially selected munity’s efforts, the stabilising interpretation of evidence that plants and animals are charac- potential of the community may is commonly interpreted to sup- terised by lower fitness (e.g. be exhausted and the commu-

13 lower resistance to infections) ratios in the biotas of land and thinking should they prove inad- than their wild-type progenitors. ocean as well as in the fossil equate in meeting the environ- Given the extent to which fuel. As one can see from Fig. mental challenges we currently the “adaptation” and “lim- 1, such a consideration makes face. itation” principles” influence it possible to account for the global change science, issues modern global carbon budget Acknowledgements associated with whether or not without assuming the existence The work of A. Makarieva is they are scientifically valid is of of a substantial carbon sink on supported by the Research Sup- more than academic interest. As land. Such a sink can hardly be port Scheme of the Open Society noted above, the extension of assigned to the terrestrial biota. Support Foundation, grant No. the limitation principle to the The latter is significantly trans- 800/2000. whole oceanic biota became the formed by humans, while it is Victor Gorshkov sole ground for the exclusion of well-known that the exploited Anastassia Makarieva the latter from the global carbon lands add carbon to the atmo- St. Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, budget. If one accepts that the sphere, mostly due to defores- Russia oceanic biotic response may be tation and soil erosion. E-mail: [email protected] more diverse and complicated During the course of human Brendan Mackey than predicted by the limitation history the biological sciences Australian National University, Australia principle, it is possible to obtain have been predominantly quite a different picture of the applied to solving the tasks Vadim Gorshkov modern global carbon cycle, of feeding humans and their Komarov Botanical Institute, Russia see Figure 1. For example, the medical treatment, while their E-mail: [email protected] stabilising reaction of the oce- application to global environ- anic biota to the anthropogenic mental problems is a more More discussion at: disturbance of the atmospheric recent phenomenon. We think www.biotic-regulation.pl.ru composition may take the form that the issues raised here are of changed proportions in pro- sufficient to suggest that the duction of long-lived and short- various scientific paradigms References lived biomatter, the overall and theories upon which the 1. Gorshkov V.G. and Makarieva A.M. (1998) Impact of terres- productivity remaining multidisciplinary endeavour of trial and oceanic biota on the unchanged. If more long-lived global change science is based modern carbon and oxygen biomatter is produced, one may need to be critically evaluated cycles. Ecological Chemistry, 7(2), 129-137. expect to find a significant and tested – even if for no other 2. Keeling R.F., Piper S.C. and Hei- organic carbon sink in the ocean. reason than they are being mann M. (1996) Global and hemi- Its magnitude can deduced from applied in a novel context. spheric CO2-sinks deduced the available data on atmo- The scientific community must from changes in atmospheric O2 concentration, Nature, 381, spheric O2/N2 ratio change and foster the fearless re-examina- 218-221. the known stoichiometric C/O tion of cherished modes of

Download all 4 issues of this year’s Global Change NewsLetter in PDF format from the IGBP web site.

14 mining the current state and Water, carbon and nutrient cycles on trend of the land and water resources on the Australian con- the Australian continent tinent. Within that program, one by M. Raupach, D. Barrett, P. Briggs and M. Kirby activity (the subject of this arti- cle) has been to characterise the coupled cycles of water, C, and key nutrients (N and P) on The terrestrial cycles of energy, carbon, water and nutrients Australian landscapes. The aims are fundamentally connected with climate processes, the were (1) to determine the spatial global carbon cycle and ecosystem function. Through these patterns of the major stores and connections, the management of ecosystems to provide food, fluxes in the cycles of water, C, fibre and timber has impacts at both global and local scales. N and P; (2) identify key climate processes controlling these spa- Local changes are often manifested as shortages (where tial patterns; and (3) assess the excess harvesting of a resource in one place or time creates ways that the water, C, N and P a deficit elsewhere) or as leakages (where water or nutrients cycles have changed in response leak into a region where they cause harm, as in dryland salinity to large-scale changes in land due to rising water tables or the contamination of surface or use, especially the introduction underground water by nutrients). For these reasons, resource of cropping and grazing (both managers are becoming increasingly concerned about eco- dryland and irrigated) since the system function as determined by the terrestrial cycles of settlement of Australia by Euro- carbon, water and nutrients, and increasingly interested in the peans from 1788 onwards. behaviour of these cycles at both small and large scales.

In Australia, a major program Resources Audit) has focussed Continued on page 20…. (the National Land and Water for the last four years on deter-

Figure 1. Major pools and fluxes in the linked terrestrial cycles of water, C, N and P through the atmosphere, plants and soil. NPP is the sum of photosynthesis and plant (not litter and soil) respiration.

15 Student Poster Awards There were 8 winners in the student poster awards at the Open Science Conference. Winning posters were selected for the quality of their overall design, illustrations, scientific content and accessibility to a broad audience. Here we present the final 4 of the 8 winning posters, (see the September edition for the other 4 posters).

19 ...continued from page 15.

2.5 ing is to a grid resolution of 0.05 degrees or about 5 km, Measured and the time averaging is over 2 Modelled interannual climate variability, but with retention of a mean annual climate cycle. Hence, 1.5 the averaged equations describe a steady, annually cycling cli- mate. To derive phenomeno- 1 logical equations with this degree of spatial and temporal 0.5 averaging it is necessary to aggregate process information available from smaller-scale 0 process models of the form f = function(x,m,p), where the 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 lower-case letters denote vari- ables averaged over smaller Surface saturation deficit [molW/molA] space and time scales. We devoted considerable attention [1] to the problem of deter- Figure 2. Comparison of NPP measured at 183 sites across Australia (Bar- rett 2001) with modelled NPP at the same sites, showing the mining the large-scale function strong response of both measured and modelled NPP to the sat- and parameters P from statisti- uration deficit of the air near the surface. cal information about the small- scale function and parameters p. This is a formalisation of the “upscaling” or “aggrega- tion” problem. The second principle was to Approach forcing variables specifying make maximum use of known weather, climate and land use, A model of the coupled cycles constraints provided by the and P are the process parame- of water, C, N and P is coupling between the water, C, ters in the model. The phenom- required; this was developed N and P cycles (for example, enological equations contain using three guiding principles. [1, 4, 6]. As indicated by the the process information in the The first was a rigorous formu- schematic in Figure 1, this lation [1] of the model coupling constrains the as a dynamical system ratios between fluxes involving two kinds of “...environmental costs (such of water, C, N and P unknowns: stores (X) as nutrient leakages) increase along shared pathways in the interacting cycles, of water, C, N and P sharply with increasing nutrient within a set of defined and places limits on control volumes, and inputs. The implication is that the ratios between C, N the fluxes (F) of mate- a reduction in nutrient inputs and P stores in various rial entering or leaving will have more benefit through pools. Examples of such these control volumes. constraints are the link These are linked by lower leakage than cost through between carbon two kinds of equation: decreased net production.” assimilation and tran- conservation equations spiration through joint of the general form stomatal control; links between carbon and dX/dt = sum(F), which model and are scale-dependent. nutrient turnover in the decom- specify the time rates of change We used equations tailored to position of litter and soil of the stores, and phenome- landscape scale, in which all organic matter; and links nological equations of the gen- variables (X, F, M and P) are between carbon, water and eral form F = function(X,M,P), averaged both horizontally and nutrient uptake by plants as where M are the external in time. The horizontal averag- they grow.

20 The final principle was to tional influences from saturation and saturation deficits lower). tailor the model to make max- deficit or air dryness (through This is a basic physiological con- imum use of available high- its effect on water use efficiency) straint (Figure 2). quality information. We were and light (only in Tasmania, The C stores in biomass, litter fortunate to have available because light is not a limiting and soil are strongly controlled excellent gridded data sets on resource elsewhere). The influ- by NPP (hence rainfall and satu- climate, soils, vegetation, land ence of saturation deficit implies ration deficit), so these C store cover and land use, including that there is less NPP per unit distributions strongly resemble irrigation. Of great importance rainfall in the north of the con- the NPP distribution. However, was a data set [5] on the agri- tinent (dominated by tropical the C stores are also modulated cultural nutrient inputs of nitro- wet-dry savannah woodlands in by temperature: for a given gen and phosphorus, resolved which the average saturation NPP, there is less C storage in regionally in space (and sub- deficit is large) than in the south the tropics than in temperate sequently further disaggregated (dominated by temperate forest regions because tropical C stores to 0.05 degree cells) and annu- and agricultural land in which decay faster than temperate ally in time. average temperatures are cooler stores. Using these principles, we developed a set of phenome- nological equations describing all necessary water, C, N and P fluxes, at a spatial scale of kilometres and a time scale appropriate for determining steady-state balances directly (so that the condition dX/dt = 0 could be used). A key example is the prediction of Net Primary Production (NPP) of biomass carbon, which was obtained with a single-param- eter model which combines light-use and water-use effi- ciencies in a way consistent with process information. This model predicts, among other things, a significant response Figure 3. Mean annual Net Primary Productivity over the Australian continent, with present agricultural inputs of water and nutrients. of NPP to saturation deficit. Figure 2 shows a comparison with nearly 200 data points derived from the ecological lit- erature [2, 3], indicating that the model successfully captures this feature and confirming that it is indeed significant. Results NPP and carbon stores: Figure 3 shows the steady-state NPP under present conditions (that is, with agricultural nutrient inputs and irrigation). On the Australian continent the spatial distribution of NPP broadly fol- lows rainfall, but with addi- Figure 4. Ratio of mean NPP with current agricultural inputs (irrigation, N and P inputs and offtakes) to mean NPP without agricultural inputs.

21 Effects of agriculture on NPP negligible continentally but can implication is that a reduction in and the landscape stores of C, be significant locally. nutrient inputs will have more N and P: As shown in Figure Continental-aggregate stores benefit through lower leakage 4, agricultural inputs (including and fluxes of C, N and P: We than cost through decreased net water from irrigation, N and P estimate that the mean continen- production. from fertilisation and N from tal NPP is 0.96 GtC/year. This sown legumes) have led to is about 30% of the NPP that Acknowledgments regional-scale increases (relative would be observed if Australia We acknowledge with appreci- to pre-agricultural conditions) of had the average NPP of terres- ation the funding of this work up to a factor of 2 for NPP. trial land surfaces; an expected by the National Land and Water Similar maps for other quanti- situation given that Australia is Resources Audit (NLWRA), Aus- ties show increases of up to a mostly a semi-arid continent. tralia. factor of 2 for the stores of C, Agricultural nutrient inputs organic N and organic P, and up have increased the continental Michael Raupach CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, to a factor of 5 for plant-avail- NPP by around 5%, and the ACT 2601, able mineral N and P, and the plant-available mineral N and Australia N and P concentrations in soil P stores by around 13% and E-mail: [email protected] water. These increases are con- 8%, respectively. Hence, the Damian Barrett centrated in the southern agri- increases in mineral N and P CSIRO Plant Industry, Canberra, cultural regions. The influence stores substantially exceed the ACT 2601, of irrigation on NPP and the NPP increase. This may suggest Australia stores of nitrogen and phospho- that at large scales, agricultural Peter Briggs rus is locally large (especially in nutrient inputs to landscapes CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, economic terms because of the exceed those required to achieve ACT 2601, Australia prevalence of high-value com- optimum production levels and modities in irrigated areas) but are approaching diminishing Mac Kirby its effect on continental aggre- returns. However, environmen- CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, gate stores and fluxes is tal costs (such as nutrient leak- ACT 2601, Australia relatively small because the irri- ages) increase sharply with gated area of the continent is increasing nutrient inputs. The small. N Balance: Before the advent of European-style agriculture, References the N balance was dominated by 1. Aber JD, Ollinger SV, Federer CA, Reich PB, Goulden ML, Kicklighter DW, input of N from natural fixation, Melillo JM, Lathrop RG. (1995). Predicting the effects of climate change with a small contribution from on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States. atmospheric N deposition. The Clim. Res. 5, 207-222 balancing losses of N occurred 2. Barrett DJ. NPP multi-biome: VAST calibration data, 1965-1998. 2001. Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A., Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distrib- through a mixture of gaseous uted Active Archive Center. loss, leaching and disturbance 3. Barrett DJ, Galbally IE, Graetz RD. (2001). Quantifying uncertainty in esti- (herbivory and fire). The spatial mates of C emissions from above-ground biomass due to historic land- distributions of all these N use change to cropping in Australia. Global Change Biology (In press). 4. Jenkinson DS, Rayner JH. (1977). The turnover of soil organic matter fluxes were closely connected in some of the Rothamsted Classical Experiments. Soil Science 123, with the NPP distribution. With 298-305 the advent of European-style 5. NLWRA (2001). Australian Agricultural Assessment 2001. (National Land agriculture, the N budget and Water Resources Audit, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, Aus- tralia). 480 pp. changed substantially: the larg- 6. Parton WJ, Scurlock JMO, Ojima DS, Gilmanov TG, Scholes RJ, Schimel est term remains fixation, greatly DS, Kirchner T, Menaut JC, Seastedt T, Moya EG, Kamnalrut A, Kin- enhanced in agricultural areas yamario JI. (1993). Observations and modeling of biomass and soil by sown legumes. Losses occur organic matter dynamics for the grassland biome worldwide. Global Bio- geochem. Cycles 7, 785-809 through disturbance (primarily 7. Raupach MR, Barrett DJ, Briggs PR, Kirby JM. (2002). Terrestrial bio- herbivory by stock), leaching sphere models and forest-atmosphere interactions. In: Forests and Water. and gaseous loss. The contribu- Ed. Vertessy R, Elsenbeer H. (IUFRO). tion of agricultural offtakes is

22 ities. Linking and interacting Past ecosystem processes and with researchers studying con- human-environment interactions temporary processes through observation and experiment is a by I. Larocque key goal to the development and the testing of models to better predict future changes - and is a key goal for PAGES Focus In the new structure of PAGES, a new Focus 5 has been 5. There is also the need for created with the goal of using the palaeorecord to inform about, a better understanding of how understand and better manage ecosystems. All projects included proxy records are interpreted in in this Focus are concerned with interactions between human terms of climate and human activities and natural processes, including climate variability. activities, and their interaction. For example, climate reconstruc- Current ecosystem management dimension perspective neces- tions using chironomids (non- practices are based on existing sary for predicting the effect of biting midges) in the Swiss Alps instrumental data, which are climate change on ecosystems has shown that at one site not long enough to determine used for various human activ- the temperature reconstructed is the natural variability of the system. Thus Focus 5 projects are based on the need to integrate long-term studies in order to better manage eco- systems. An example is the drought severity in the U.S. (Figure 1). Dendrochronology has shown evidence of past megadroughts of unusual severity and duration in the palaeoclimatic record that appear to exceed the biggest drought recorded in the 1930s [1]. Instrumental data over the U.S. are inadequate for capturing the full range of droughts, particularly the inci- dence of naturally occurring megadroughts. Why mega- droughts occur has still to be answered – and there are questions still to be solved and systems to be modeled. What should be realized is that management of these ecosystems has been based on these “non-representative” years and a return to the pre- vious cycle could potentially be disastrous [2]. Although long-term stud- ies provide the natural vari- ability needed to better assess Figure 1. A. Palmer Drought Severity Index emphasizing the western US has the future climate, they often lack highest risk region. information about contempo- rary processes and the human B. Time series of drought as recorded in tree rings. Their correlation with instrumental data is 0.77. The correlation between the smoothed data (blue line) and the instrumental data is 0.86. Cook et al. 1999.

23 Trees Pinus Querc Artemisia Chenopodiaceae of sensitivity and of 15 thresholds and non-linear responses can be totally 545 understood. These case studies include a major 1105 concern with ecosystems ars BP of high vulnerability ye 1665 caused by a combination 2225 of natural and human induced stresses. Three 2785 activities are included in Focus 5: LUCIFS (Land 3345 use and Climate Impacts 20 40 60 20 40 60 20 20 40 60 20 40 on Fluvial Systems during the Period of Agriculture), LIMPACS (Human Impact 50-100 um >100 um on Lake Ecosystems) and 15 0 HITE (Human Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems). 531 40 The first two were estab- lished a few years ago, 1091 80 while HITE has been offi- cially launched in June 1651 ars BP 120

Depth (cm) 2001. Although each activ- ye ity has its own set of case 2211 160 studies, there will be “flag- ship” studies in which 2771 200 all three themes will be 3331 240 intimately involved. These shared studies sites will 102 204 102 204 allow the exploration of charcoal per cm3 system linkages (terrestrial, fluvial and Figure 2. First panel: Pollen stratigraphy of a site in Mongolia Second panel: lacustrine) as well as Charcoal stratigraphy of the same site ( Ren, 1999). model integration. Capac- ity building is a key ele- ment in the strategy of the projects. Existing projects in HITE not comparable to other proxy behavior on vegetation and cli- include, for example, human reconstructions probably due to mate. Historical ecology can impacts on vegetation in Mon- human impact at this site [4]. offer an integrated theoretical golia (Figure 2). The association Only contemporary studies on framework, drawn on diverse between pollen and charcoal the ecology of chironomids can studies of social and environ- records indicates that in the last bring more rigorous insights mental change [3], which are hundred years, the vegetation about the effect of anthropo- often lacking in palaeoresearch has reverted to levels exceeding genic factors on chironomids and contemporary ecology. those of 2000 years ago when nat- and their behavior. Historical The projects included in ural fire frequency was low. The ecology is also a much-needed Focus 5 are necessarily case- recent decrease of fire might be discipline in such projects. While study based. Only case studies due to two factors: climate and historians were sometimes reluc- can capture both environmental suppression of fires by human tant to admit that climate change and human activities activities. To better understand changes affected human societ- over decades, centuries, and the linkage between climate and ies in the past, palaeoecologists even millennia at a scale where anthropogenic factors, contem- have sometimes neglected to concepts of durability in long- porary ecology and historical consider the impacts of human sustained ecosystems, questions ecology will be added to this

24 Figure 3. Conceptual framework for models within Focus 5 (from Harald Bugmann, ETH, Zurich).

project ultimately leading to a land use effects, based on both To learn more about Focus better understanding and man- historical and palaeodata. The 5 and its activities or agement of this area. Other last step is model application or to integrate your project case-studies include the records impact assessment. While many into the Focus, consult of erosion and agro-environ- studies to date have been based the PAGES website at: mental changes in India, human on step 1 and step 3, very few www.pages-igbp.org, and activity and climate change in included step 2. A framework for look under structure or Australia, rapid climate change modeling using all three steps contact the activity leaders, and human populations in the has yet to be completed, but John Dearing for HITE UK, climate and land use in nonetheless seems to be the only ([email protected]), central Europe, human impact valid way to link palaeodata to Robert Wasson for LUCIFS on terrestrial ecosystems in contemporary and historical data ([email protected]) southern Scandinavia, the Euro- for an impact assessment of cli- and Rick Battarbee for pean sub-alpine terrestrial eco- mate and human interactions. LIMPACS system in France and the Isabelle Larocque ([email protected]). temperate ecosystems in the PAGES-IPO, Bärenplatz 2, Inquiries can also be sent United States. Additional case CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland. to Isabelle Larocque studies are invited to join the E-mail: [email protected] ([email protected]). HITE project, especially from South America, Southeast Asia and Africa. An important part of Focus 5 will be to develop models References for a better management of eco- 1. Cook, E.R. et al. 1999. J. Climate 12: 1145-1162. systems. Three steps should be 2. Cook, E.R., & Evans, M. 2000. Improving estimates of drought variability included in such models (Figure and extremes from centuries-long tree-ring chronologies: A PAGES/CLIVAR Example. PAGES News 8, 1: 10-11. 3). A first step is to use pal- aeoecological and palaeoclimate 3. Crumley, C. 2000. Bridging the biophysical-cultural divide: the role of his- torical ecology. PAGES News 8,3: 8-9. data for model construction and evaluation in the pre-human 4. Heiri, O. 2000. Doctoral Thesis. University of Bern. impact period. Next it is neces- 5. Ren, G. (1999): Influence of human activities on the late Holocene vegeta- tion changes at Maili, Northeast China, Scientia Geographic Sinica, 19 (1), sary to disentangle climatic and 42-48 (in Chinese with English abstract).

25 modification of biogeochemical Extending atmospheric aerosol balances. Hence, there are sub- measurements to the global scale stantial reasons for extending observations from the regional by R.J. Charlson to global scale, primarily to provide quantification of such large-scale effects. The remain- der of this paper focuses on Three disparate approaches have heretofore been employed the single scientific question of to study atmospheric aerosols: 1) in situ observations of micro- climate forcing; however, the physical and chemical properties; 2) long-path/column and approach would be the same for remote sensing of their influence on propagation of radiation the other large-scale effects as in the atmosphere (including satellite observations); and 3) well. While these existing aerosol modeling on all spatial/temporal scales, which depends on observations have resulted in accurate and realistic knowledge from (1) and (2), or on enough information to allow assumptions. While these different approaches have been preliminary model-based esti- useful in the exploratory stages of research on atmospheric mates of direct and indirect cli- aerosols, applications of them to current scientific questions matic forcing by both natural regarding climate forcing and other global-scale issues and anthropogenic aerosols, requires an integrative strategy that is defined by the scientific there are questions of whether questions themselves. Simultaneous and coordinated use of all the observations are representa- three approaches is required for generating a complete and tive; and there are large uncer- integrated description of these complex systems, particularly tainties (+/- a factor of two for understanding and quantifying large-scale to global effects in concentration for the best- of aerosols. Accomplishing the needed integration requires known case of anthropogenic consideration of the spatial/temporal variability of aerosols as sulfates in the PBL, and much worse for the upper troposphere well as the influences of and correlations with the thermody- or for anthropogenic organic namic state (particularly the relative humidity). Rationalization aerosols or for indirect effects on of the data from the three required approaches in the context clouds). Given the existing suite of clearly stated scientific questions cannot be achieved with- of in situ observational capa- out coordination. While a need still exists for exploratory obser- bilities, it is clearly impossible vations, e.g., in order to discover new processes or properties, to obtain enough data by those data from such experiments must be clearly labeled as not means alone to guarantee global belonging to the integrated set. representation. On the other hand, data from satellite-based Background light reaching the ground; how- radiometers have shown the ever, most such observations are great benefits of global geo- Exploratory and monitoring sporadic, for short periods of graphical coverage but, so far, observations of atmospheric time and for only a few places have been of limited use, also aerosols over the last several on Earth. Taken together, these because of large uncertainties decades have emphasized three in situ and column observations [2] and limitations imposed by features of those particulate sys- show that there are large varia- satellite orbital characteristics. tems: chemical composition and tions in both the extensive and These uncertainties and limita- concentration, physical charac- intensive properties of the aero- tions, along with a need for ver- terizations (primarily particle sols, and that these variations tical resolution and much more size distribution and number occur on many time and space accurate inferences of aerosol population), and cloud nucleat- scales, especially in the vertical optical depth, became the basis ing properties. Observations of direction. In spite of this high for implementation of a lidar optical depth or turbidity from degree of variability, aerosols in the CALIPSO satellite, which the ground, along with lidar occur globally and have large- will be orbited in formation with observations show that the non- scale (regional to global) effects, the EOS-PM (AQUA) system cloud aerosol is a major factor ranging from climate forcing to and CLOUDSAT beginning in governing the amount of sun- acidification of precipitation and 2004. Prior to that time,

26 numerous satellite-borne sen- Basis for integrating • Satellite lidar yields verti- sors capable of providing some data from satellite- cal (z) information along aerosol information are already borne lidar, radiome- the orbital ground track deployed (or soon will be), (x), but requires extrap- including other lidars [GLAS, ters, models and in situ olation in the cross-track 2002], high resolution spectrom- observations direction and interpolation eters operating in the oxygen between repeats of visits to A-band (e.g., GOME), and polar- First, it is necessary to recognize a given site. ization of upwelling reflected that no single mode of observa- • In situ observations at sunlight (e.g., POLDER). But, tions or modeling can provide a fixed sites give no infor- however extensive these obser- complete or adequate integrated mation on the x, y or z vations may be and however output, viz: axes. Ground-based lidar promising these new technol- • Satellite (usually polar) yields information on the ogies may seem, especially orbital characteristics z axis (not x or y), but given the global extent of their bring the remote sensors both can be run for unlim- observations, they cannot by over a given site only ited periods of time to pro- themselves measure the actual rarely and for sun-syn- vide connections between chemical composition of the chronous systems only at orbital visits, hence allow- detected aerosol, nor provide one time of day. Hence, ing interpolation during information on key intensive models and in situ con- times when the satellite- aerosol parameters, and, most tinuous observations are borne lidar and radiome- significantly, they cannot needed for temporal inter- ters are not present. quantify the proportion of nat- polation. ural and anthropogenic com- • In situ observations with • Satellite radiometers can ponents. Even the combination aircraft can yield some image large geographical of satellite observations and information on x, y and areas (in the x-y horizontal models together cannot ade- z, but only for very short dimensions only) and can quately remedy the inherent, time periods. Large num- cover the whole Earth unacceptably large uncertainties bers of short flights can, in daily, but cannot view the of the models such that in principle, yield data over whole Earth continuously, situ aerosol characterizations are lengthy periods of time on time scales on which still necessary. This requirement but would require dedi- aerosols and clouds vary poses a series of questions of cated use of such facilities. (hours to fractions of a how to coordinate in time and day). • Models of atmospheric space the in situ observations aerosols can yield outputs and how to formulate model results so that in combination with satellite observations it is possible to seek closure; that is, ask to what degree the entire set of remote and in situ data and model outputs (moputs) are internally consistent. To put these thoughts in a different way, the different modes of observation—satellite instru- ments and in situ devices—do not and cannot observe exactly the same aerosol properties, and models are only models such that it is necessary to develop means to connect them and test whether they agree with each other.

Figure 1. Autocorrelation coefficient versus log distance (km) down the orbital or flight ground track.

27 with short (few hour) time Implementation of such coor- aerosol EP, IP and TS: 1) Mea- resolution over all three dinated observations regarding surements over a spatial dimen- dimensions (x, y, z) over direct climate forcing thus sion, for example with a mobile any time frame. However, requires some degree of knowl- sampling platform such as an the uncertainties in the edge of the nature of spatial aircraft or non-geo-stationery models (parametric, struc- and temporal variability of both satellite; and 2) Measurements tural and mechanistic) the extensive and intensive aero- over time. The two are related in require continuous valida- sol parameters, and the relevant that the spatial dimension of the tion via in situ and remote thermodynamic state variables. former is replaced by the time measurements. Models dimension of the latter along also may not adequately Defining the role of with a mean velocity. The first describe such factors as thermodynamic state satellite-borne lidar data that sub-grid-scale correlations as an dependent vari- were acquired in LITE reveal between aerosol parame- the existence of synoptic (1000 ters and the thermody- able that influences km) horizontal scale aerosol namic state of the air (esp. column properties masses, with substantial vari- RH; see Charlson et al. [1]) ability down to 10 to 100 and hence again require in Thermodynamic state (TS) is km scales. Lengthy time series situ measurements for con- defined here as the aggregate reveal the same sort of variabil- firmation. of temperature- and vapor-pres- ity, with large aerosol masses sure related quantities that influ- Second, it is essential to coordi- passing by on the time scale of ence phase changes, particle nate in situ and satellite obser- a day and variability on time size, and refractive index in vations so that the resultant scales of an hour to a few hours. the multiphase aerosol system. multivariate data sets strictly Figure 1 is an autocorrelation The optical properties of any and demonstrably apply to the plot of LITE data, showing that column or path within the atmo- same exact air parcel, and so that at distances of greater than 100 sphere are determined by both the integrated data set includes km or times greater than three the amounts (EP) and properties all of the independent variables to four hours, the auto-corre- (IP) of the aerosol-particle sub- that control the column-integral lation coefficient drops below stances and TS, and both are properties. This includes both about 0.8. This means that any functions of length along the the relevant extensive properties attempt to obtain correlative in path, such that measurement of (EP)—such as scattering and situ data for satellite observa- one variable alone (whether at a absorption coefficients, lidar tions is expected to result in less point or over the path) clearly backscatter, and species mass than a 0.8 correlation coefficient cannot describe the whole path. concentrations—and intensive if the samples are acquired, or Relatively large amounts of properties (IP) (see Table 1) and the observations made, outside water are expected to be in their dependence on the ther- the ~100 km or the three to the particles under typical atmo- modynamic state (TS), particu- four hour space/time window, spheric conditions. Eighty per- larly RH. Numerous factors are respectively. cent RH is the average of the involved in achieving such coor- Earth’s PBL, and at eighty per- dination: Consideration of the cent RH, soluble particles are • effects of aerosol char- Horizontal variability of approximately eighty mole per- all extensive variables cent water. acteristics and thermo- • Vertical variability and dynamic state on the stratification in the atmo- Consideration of the sampling protocols sphere of the extensive influences of the spa- parameters tial and temporal char- Not all particle size classes are important to the scattering and • Variations in time and acteristics of aerosols absorption of solar radiation, space of the thermody- on sampling and mea- with sub-micrometer particles namic factors influencing having much larger influence column properties surement protocols per unit mass of aerosol sub- • Correlations among the- Two related approaches are stance. Also, it is generally above. available for observing the observed that sub-micrometer spatial–temporal variability of particles have a systematically

28 different composition than operating at 10 and 1 mm. once again, it is necessary to super-micrometer ones, and However, this separation cannot make these observations in one- sub-micrometer particles often yield consistent samples if the and-the-same airparcel seen by have a significant anthropogenic RH is sufficiently high because the satellite instruments if mean- component (e.g., sulfates). Sub- as shown above, the particles ingful correlations are to be micrometer (so-called grow at RH well below 100%. obtained. accumulation mode) particles Hence, it is necessary to control are formed from the gas phase the RH by slight (a few degrees) Considerations of the via either low or high temper- heating prior to imposing the ature nucleation processes (gas- size cut. This RH control (e.g., applications of the data to-particle conversion), while at RH<40%) also achieves mea- to scientific questions coarse, super-micrometer ones surement of the needed EP in the design of obser- are primarily from mechanical values (mass concentrations, mi) production (e.g., wind-blown at a reference low RH at which vational protocols and dust or sea salt). Hence if it the thermodynamic state has modeling is desired to separate out and little influence. But, it also identify the optically important requires that f(RH) also be mea- As is evident from Sections 2 particles and to estimate the sured so that the EP values at to 5 above, every aspect of the fraction that is anthropogenic, it higher RH (e.g., aloft) can be measurement strategy is in one is necessary to separately anal- accurately calculated. The actual way or another dictated by the yse the sub-micrometer fraction. choice of 40% RH and 1 and scientific question at hand. The This can be achieved by intertial 10 mm is what is practiced by key variables to be measured separation prior to sampling, the U.S. aerosol monitoring per- (Table 1) are all parameters e.g., with a cyclone separator formed by NOAA-CMDL. And, that are needed for either mod- eling climate forcing or for

Table 1. Aerosol measurements for direct forcing of climate.

Extensive Properties

σ (λ)( -1): Scattering component of extinction, scattering coefficient sp m σ (λ)( -1): Hemispheric backscatter coefficient bsp m σ (λ)( -1): Absorption coefficient * ap m m: Mass concentration

mi: Species mass concentration (chemical composition as f(r)) β180(m-1σρ-1): Lidar backscatter coefficient

Intensive Properties å: d log σ /d log λ Wavelength dependence (Ångström exponent) sp : σ /σ Humidity dependence f(RH) sp(RH) sp(low RH) B: σ /σ Backscatter ratio bsp sp ω: σ /(σ +σ ) Single scatter albedo * sp sp ap α : ∂σ /∂m(m2 -1) Mass scattering efficiency m sp g α : ∂σ /∂m (mg) Species scattering efficiency ι sp i S(sr): (σ +σ )/β Lidar ratio sp ap 180 ______Ratios of chemical components ______* Most uncertain property

29 inputs into the retrieval of data ellite data. Intensive campaigns be necessary to develop new from satellite-borne instruments. likely will be replaced by longer sorts of models that actually cal- Other scientific questions would term measurement programs, culate (or use) the data from require a different set of vari- and models will be developed satellite instruments or in situ ables. Most importantly, it is that attempt to optimize the observations. Data assimilation seldom possible to utilize data use of the data. Given that techniques appear to hold con- acquired for one problem (e.g., the data are imperfect (and siderable promise. health effects) for another scien- always will be), appropriate tific question (e.g., relationship uncertainty analyses must be R.J. Charlson to satellite data for climate forc- carried throughout the entire Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Sweden, and Department ing estimates). It is necessary integrative activity. Just how of Atmospheric Sciences, University of to keep all of the constraints to organize and coordinate this Washington, Seattle, U.S.A. on measurement in mind when effort is not clear; but, what is E-mail: charlson@chem. washington.edu developing the overall observa- clear is that it cannot work with- tional and modeling strategy. out coordination. There also is a clear need for Reprinted from IGAC Conclusions: Sugges- close collaboration of modelers Newsletter No.25, with both the satellite and in tions for strategies of December 2001 coordination situ measurers. Indeed, it will

The final point of this brief tuto- rial is that this integrative strat- References egy would appear to require 1. Charlson, R.J., T.L. Anderson, and H. Rodhe, Direct climate forcing by overt coordination. “Business as anthropogenic aerosols: quantifying the link between radiation and sul- usual”, with individual scien- fate models, Beitr. Phys. Atmosph., 72, 79-94, 1999. 2. Mischenko, M. I., I. V. Geogdzhayev, B. Cairns, W.B. Rossow, and A.A. tists measuring one or a few Lacis, Aerosol retrievals over the ocean by use of channels 1 and 2 parameters as they always have AVHRR data: Sensitivity analysis and preliminary results, Appl. Optics, done cannot provide a coherent 38, 7325-7341, 1999. dataset for correlation with sat- Now Available IGBP Science Series 1, 2, 3 and 4 The IGBP Science Series is designed to make IGBP’s research output accessible to a wider range of audiences, in particular to the policy and resource manage- ment communities. These visually rich reports present the most recent scientific under- standing in major areas of Earth System Science. To order copies send an e-mail to: [email protected]

30 Discussion Forum

The first decade of IGBP research has inspired us to think about the ethics for global stewardship and the type of science we need to develop in order to better understand the Earth System [1]. In an increasingly interwoven world a major question is not if globalisation exists but which globalisation should we address in order to better harmonize human and biophysical systems. Building capacity for science and human progress at global scales

The Open Science Conference (Amsterdam 10-13 about existing research networks and must do July 2001) set the stage for a new and challenging better in support of a new and larger generation decade. Valuable participants’ feedback in the last of Earth System scientists. Both to maintain and NewsLetter highlighted the “uniqueness of the expand human capacity and scientific knowledge event” in bringing such a “large representation from local to global scales. Value adding and from developing countries” and “suggested solu- networking, hand-in-hand. In an increasingly inte- tions to environmental issues from and within grated world only win-win and sustainable efforts developing countries”. Others stressed, more crit- make for long-lasting solutions. ically, that the “causes of poor participation in global research by developing countries are well known (…) and the meeting should have provided Scientific networking, education and tangible/proactive action plans with specific tar- outreach gets”. Comments like “a lot still to be done”, “need to stimulate information exchange” and “western The Global Change Programmes are presently solutions might not always meet the requirements” discussing how best to address integrated resonate. regional studies as a central part of their activities, possibly out of regional co-ordination centres. The immediate effort paid off in the short-term: out Initiatives like these should potentially enhance of a total of 1400 participants from 105 countries synergism between subject-specific programme we attracted 681 initial registrations from develop- ing countries, of which 320 were actually able elements (i.e. core research projects) and regional to attend. Beyond what we had anticipated, the projects selected for their relevance as “hot-spots” sponsoring programmes were able to directly sup- of global relevance. We anticipate that, in addition port 133 participants on the basis of their poster to the developing agenda for the coming decade, abstracts (see table for numbers and country emerging scientific and ethical concerns will focus representation). We are grateful to other interna- on issues dealing with vulnerability of nature-soci- tional NGOs, foundations, intergovernmental and ety systems. This should be done in parallel with national global change agencies for their support. the need to seek novel ways to integrate assess- Some of those institutions also provided direct ment with monitoring, fundamental with applied funding for a handful of their own grantees to question formulation, scientific knowledge and attend the Conference. outreach. But Amsterdam also provided us with an addi- Truly international scientific partnership should tional challenge: to demonstrate that we both care inspire joint teams operating across geopolitical Number of scientists from developing countries who attended the OSC.

(Total 62) divides, helping to bring down the unsustainable 78 of them) has been rather weak. Action goes scientific boundaries separating knowledge cen- both ways: while we should assist in the assess- ters and peripheries. Only in this way may the ment of scientific information at the international “digital and scientific divides” and “brain-drain” level, it is also necessary for national communities syndromes be tackled. Most of the developing to help their governments realise the potential world lacks the means to support existing scien- role that Earth System science can play in provid- tific infrastructure, let alone deal with the accel- ing an essential input to developmental policies. erating scope and rate of change and their Such collaboration should namely help with cur- cascading effects on life support systems and ricula formulation as well as with the provision community quality of life itself. How can we best of viable options and meaning to colleagues in help change the course of action? pursuing an academic research career in national In parallel with direct funding from existing pro- universities and research institutes. gramme elements (a few ones- like PAGES- IGBP is also trying to improve on developing award seed funding to developing world work- communication tools to help larger audiences shop participants, others - like START- actively to understand critical knowledge such as how promote capacity building) novel ways should be the earth functions and how we can achieve explored. New agenda-setting efforts can only be global sustainability. Such tools range from a truly owned if done across developed and devel- revamped website, the NewsLetter, the “IGBP oping nations and regions. New projects imple- Science Series” and even internet portals, film mented in developing countries should include documentaries and voyages of discovery. Watch specific action to optimise and expand local this space for developments and please keep human and material scientific infrastructure. With- exploring every window of opportunity and pro- out much additional funding effort (c.1% of total vide us with all constructive feedback! new project budgets?) much can be done in providing support to colleagues whom otherwise João Morais cannot attend international workshops and there- IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden fore have an active role in drafting the new scien- E-mail: [email protected] tific agendas. And without involvement there is no commitment.

Communication and synergism with existing 1. “Global Change and the Earth System: a Planet under pressure”, IGBP Science Series, 4, Stockholm, 2001. global change national committees (IGBP has ca. People and events

faculty of the newly established School of Environ- mental Sciences at the University of East Anglia in 1969. For the past 3 decades he has led a research group there, specialising in various aspects of bio- The Inaugural Chair for SOLAS geochemical interaction between the oceans and The Scientific Committee of the the atmosphere. IGBP welcomes back Peter Liss, Both nationally and internationally, he has served who has recently been appointed on a wide variety of working/planning/evaluation Chair of the Scientific Steering groups, sponsored by many national and interna- Committee for the new IGBP tional organisations. Project SOLAS (Surface Ocean - Lower Atmosphere Study). Peter The full membership of the SOLAS SSC is as fol- has made significant contribu- lows. Their first meeting was held in San Francisco tions to IGBP over the years, serving as Treasurer in December 2001. and then Chair of the Scientific Committee as Peter Liss (United Kingdom), Philip Boyd (New well as on the IGAC SSC. He was instrumental Zealand), Elsa Cortijo (France), Ken Denman in strengthening IGBP in response to international (Canada), Barry Huebert (USA), Tim Jickells (United review, and helping to develop the international rec- Kingdom), Truls Johannessen (Norway), Gebrand ognition which has led to a successful synthesis. Komen (Netherlands), M. Dileep Kumar (India), Peter has a truly global, multi-disciplinary vision Patricia Matrai (USA), William Miller (Canada), and helped integrate IHDP into the ICSU family. Ulrich Platt (Germany), Katherine Richardson- Having studied at Durham University and University Christensen (Denmark), Peter Schlosser (USA), of Wales, Peter was a postdoctoral fellow at South- Mitsuo Uematsu (Japan), Ilana Wainer (Brazil), ampton University before being appointed to the Doug Wallace (Germany).

ICSU gets a new Executive Director of START. He has also served as Secretary-Gen- eral of the Scientific Committee on Problems of the In January 2002, Thomas Environment (SCOPE) of ICSU. He is Professor in Rosswall will take up the Water and Environmental Sciences, a position that post of Executive Direc- he has held at three Swedish universities. tor of ICSU (International His research has focused on microbial ecology, Council for Science) soil nutrient dynamics and land and water manage- based in Paris. The ment in both temperate and tropical regions. He current Director, Larry has published some 150 papers in refereed jour- Kohler, will move back to nals and edited 12 scientific volumes. He has also Geneva where he will be been on the editorial board of many scientific jour- working for the Interna- nals and is a member of four learned societies tional Labour Organisa- including Academia Europeae and the Royal Swed- tion. ish Academy of Sciences. Thomas Rosswall is currently Director of the Inter- Kohler has a strong connection with the global national Foundation for Science, a not-for profit change research community. Fron 1997 to 1999, organisation established to support developing he was the Executive Director of the International country scientists working in developing countries Human Dimensions Programme on Global Envi- on aspects of natural resource management and ronmental Change (IHDP). A political scientist by conservation. training, he played a decisive role in the rapid devel- Professor Rosswall was Rector (President) of opment of the current IHDP research agenda in the the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences late 1990s and also in building closer links to IGBP 1994-2000. In 1987, he became the first Executive and WCRP, the first stages in the development of Director of IGBP and was also the first Director the Earth System Science Partnership. New face at the IGBP Secretariat ing mortality in the Indian Ocean with colleagues from the Universities of Cambridge and Warwick. Dr Clare Bradshaw is a Her PhD (at Edinburgh University) looked at how marine ecologist who has burrowing and bioeroding crustaceans affect reef just joined the IGBP Sec- preservation. Having initially worked at the IGBP tretariat in Stockholm. In Secretariat with the Science Communication Team May 2001 she moved to before and during the Open Science Conference in Sweden from Britain where July, her new position will be split between coordi- she worked at the Univer- nating a new educational expedition and film proj- sity of Liverpool’s Port Erin ect and helping with the editing of the forthcoming Marine Laboratory, research- IGBP synthesis book. ing the impacts of fishing on In March 2002, Clare will replace Susannah Eliott seabed fauna. She has also who goes on maternity leave until the beginning of worked on several coral reef projects, having most 2003. recently been involved with monitoring coral bleach-

A changing of the guard for IGAC Alex has been the Executive Officer of IGAC for most of the project’s existence, joining in 1992 Dr Peter Czepiel is the during Ron Prinn’s Chairmanship and continuing new IGAC Executive Officer, until a month or two ago. During that time he effective 5 November 2001. has supported the project in very many ways with Peter is an expert in the pro- quiet but exceptional competence, playing a cen- duction and consumption tral role in the development of IGAC into a strong of radiatively active trace and effective IGBP core project. The IGAC News- gases. He is primarily inter- letter, always put together carefully under Alex’s ested in the biogeochemi- guidance, is well known for its solid scientific con- cal cycling of carbon and tent, even to the point that publication in it is some- nitrogen in both natural and times considered by journals as prior publication! anthropogenic systems. While a doctoral candidate The IGAC Integration and Synthesis is another at the University of New Hampshire, he devised project in which Alex’s quiet but effective leadership new techniques to assess the magnitude, variabil- has helped to build a product of very high scientific ity, and environmental influences on the sources quality. and sinks of methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous The IGAC Core Project Office itself has moved oxide in liquid and solid waste processing systems to the University of New Hampshire. New contact as well as disturbed and undisturbed soils. Peter information is: has been working at the University of New Hamp- shire with two long-time contributors to IGAC Dr Peter Czepiel, Executive Officer IGAC Core research, Michael Keller and Patrick Crill, investi- Project Office Institute for the Study of Earth, gating carbon and nitrogen trace gas exchange in Oceans, and Space (EOS) University of New Hamp- tropical forests as a participant in the Large Scale shire, 39 College Road Durham, NH 03824-3575 Biosphere-Atmosphere Exchange in the Amazon USA (LBA) project. Tel:(+1-603)862-4520; Fax:(+1-603)862-3875; The IGBP Secretariat would like to take this oppor- Email: [email protected]; www.igac.unh.edu tunity to thank outgoing Executive Officer, Dr Alex Pzenny, and Office Manager, Edmund Carlevale for their tireless efforts with IGAC and their many con- tributions to IGBP over the years. SOLAS: 1st Meeting of the SOLAS SSC IGBP and Related 14-17 December, San Francisco, USA Meetings Contact: Peter Liss, [email protected] American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting For a more detailed meetings list please see our web 15-19 December, San Francisco, USA site at www.igbp.kva.se Contact: AGU Meetings Department, [email protected] or http:// www.agu.org/meetings/fm00_spss.html#Hydrology Planning Meeting on Future of Ocean Research within IGBP/SCOR 2-5 December, Barcelona, Spain 2002 Contact: Peter Burkhill, [email protected] LUCC: Linking Household and Remotely Sensed RICAMARE: Global Change and Water Resources in Data: Methodological and Practical Problems the Mediterranean Region 3-8 January, Honolulu, Hawaii 2-8 December, Toledo, Spain Contact: Jefferson Fox, [email protected] or Vinod Mishra, Contact: J.M. Moreno, [email protected] or [email protected] or Ronald R. Rindfuss [email protected] [email protected] or http:// or Stephen J. Walsh [email protected] www.uclm.es/cursos/ricamare IAS/SEPM Environmental Sedimentology Workshop: Global Conference on Oceans and Coasts at Rio +10 Continental Shelves - Processes, Record, Utilization 3-7 December, UNESCO, Paris, France and Management Contact: Dr. Biliana Cic-in.Sain, [email protected] 7-10 January, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong International Conference on Freshwater Contact: Wyss Yim, [email protected] 3-7 December, Bonn, Germany Contact: [email protected] or http://www.water-2001.de 3rd Workshop on Land Use/Management Change and Trace Gas Emission in East Asia In conjunction: Dialogue on Water and Climate 8-10 January, IRRI, Los Baños, Philippines Contact: Holger Hoff, [email protected] Contact: Arvin Mosier, [email protected]

GLOBEC: PNEC-GLOBEC Meeting GECAFS: Global Environmental Change and Food 5-7 December, Paris, France Systems: Rice-Shrimp Systems Project Development Contact: François Carlotti, [email protected] Workshop 11-13 January, Chiang Mai, Thailand

A History of Atmospheric CO2 and its Effects on Contact: Louis Lebel, [email protected] Plants, Animals, and Ecosystems 6-8 December, Snowbird, Utah, USA JGOFS, LOICZ: Continental Margin Task Team Work- Contact: http://c3c4.utah.edu shop on Subpolar Regions 23-25 January, Southampton, UK 2001 Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions Contact: Jonathan Sharples, [email protected] of Global Environmental Change 7-8 December, Berlin, Germany IGBP: New IGBP Atmosphere Project: Contact: http://www.environmental-policy.de Planning Workshop 27-30 January, Stockholm, Sweden Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Contact: Tim Bates, [email protected] Asia Workshop 10-13 December, Kobe, Japan JGOFS: Data Management Task Team Meeting Contact: Congbin Fu, [email protected] 29-30 January, Washington, DC, USA Contact: Margarita Conkright, [email protected] Royal Society Meeting on Climate Change 12-13 December, London, UK AIACC Project Initial Meeting Contact: Marisa Goulden or Rachel Quinn, [email protected] TBA January, Nairobi, Kenya Contact: Neil Leary, [email protected] LUCC: International Symposium on LUCC Contribution to Asian Environmental Problems IGBP, IHDP, WCRP: Workshop “Sustainable 13-14 December, Tokyo, Japan Development-The Role of International Science” Contact: [email protected], or 4-6 February, ICSU, Paris, France http://shiba.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/LUCC/symp/://shiba.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ Contact: Sylvia Karlsson, [email protected] LUCC/symp/ VAMOS/CLIVAR Conference on IGAC: IGAC Scientific Steering Committee Meeting South American low-level jet 21-23 March, Johannesburg, South Africa 5-7 February, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia Contact: IGAC IPO, [email protected] Contact: Carolina Vera, [email protected] or Michael Doug- las, [email protected] or http://www.clivar.org/vamos/ IHDP: IHDP-Scientific Committee Meeting index.htm 25-27 March, Bonn, Germany Coccolithophores: From Molecular Processes to Contact: IHDP Secretariat, [email protected] Global Impact 10-15 February, Ascona, Switzerland GCTE: Trophic Interactions in a Changing World Contact: Dr. Patrick Sean Quinn, [email protected] or 3-7 April, TBA, The Netherlands http://www.coccoco.ethz.ch/ Contact: Peter de Ruiter, [email protected] or W.H. van der Putten, [email protected] or Jeff A. Harvey, Special Session at AGU/ASLO Ocean Sciences [email protected] or Martin Wassen, [email protected] 11-15 February, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA Contact: Ann Holbourn, [email protected] or Roger Francois, LUCC: LUCC Scientific Steering Committee Meeting [email protected] or http://www.images-pages.org 11-13 April, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium Contact: LUCC IPO, [email protected] IGBP: 17th SC-IGBP Meeting and IPO Executive Directors Meeting European Geophysical Society XXVII General 19-23 February, Bangalore, India Assembly Contact: Clemencia Widlund, [email protected] 21-26 April, Nice, France Contact: JGOFS IPO, [email protected] or http://www.copernicus.org/EGS/ GAIM: Trans Com III egsga/nice02/nice02.htm 25-28 February, Fort Collins, USA Contact: Kevin Gurney, [email protected] GCTE: From Transient to Steady State Response of Ecosystems to CO2-Enrichment and Global Warm- Synthesis Workshop on Institutional Response to ing Global Change 28 April-1 May, Durham, New Hampshire, USA TBA, February, Chiang Mai, Thailand Contact: Diane Pataki, [email protected] Contact: Louis Lebel, [email protected] Workshop on Building Adaptive Capacity to Envi- GCTE: Rice-Wheat Workshop Planning Meeting ronmental Change in Southeast Asia TBA, February, Delhi, India TBA, April, Chiang Mai, Thailand Contact: John Ingram, [email protected] Contact: Louis Lebel, [email protected]

PAGES: 2nd Swedish National PAGES Meeting GCTE: GCTE Focus 1 Workshop: Biological Controls 14-17 March, Sigtuna, Sweden on the Stable Isotope Composition of Atmospheric Contact: Gunhild (Ninis) Rosqvist, [email protected] or http:// Carbon dioxide, Methane & Nitrous Oxide: Pro- www.geo.su.se/naturegeo.klimat cesses and Applications 12-14 May, Banff, Canada GCTE: 12th GCTE SSC Meeting Contact: Diane Pataki, [email protected] 18-20 March, Sydney, Australia Contact: Rowena Foster, [email protected] PAGES: PAGES Scientific Steering Committee Meeting Stage 5 deposits in Europe in the context of global 14-15 May, Moscow, Russia climate evolution Contact: Diane Pataki, [email protected] 18-22 March, Lepizig, Germany Contact: Saskia Rudert, [email protected] or GCTE: GEGC-II/GCTE Soil Erosion Network co- http://www.uni-mainz.de/FB/Geo/Geologie/sedi/index.html sponsored Meeting 22-25 May, Chengdu, China WCRP: WCRP Joint Scientific Committee Meeting Contact: Yong Li, yongli32@hotmail 18-23 March, Hobart, Australia Contact: WCRP Secretariat, [email protected] GCTE: GCTE-SEN co-sponsored Meeting. Soil Ero- sion and Land Use Change Special Session, 98th Annual Meeting of the Asso- 26-31 May, Chengdu, China ciation of American Geographers (AAG) Contact: http://www.wscc.org.cn/isco2002/index.htm 19-23 March, Los Angeles, USA Contact: http://www.aag.org/ (Annual Meeting Link) LOICZ: LOICZ Synthesis Futures Meeting GCTE: GCTE Focus 1/NCEAS 2nd Working Group 29 May-1 June, Miami, Florida, US Meeting: Progressive Nitrogen Limitation of Plant Contact:LOICZ IPO, [email protected] and Ecosystem Responses to Elevated CO2 18-21 June, Santa Barbara, CA, USA JGOFS: Joint Meeting of the Global Synthesis Contact: Diane Pataki, [email protected] Working Group and JGOFS/GAIM Task Team on 3D Ocean Carbon Modelling and Analysis International Conference to Mark the International TBA, May or June, Ispra, Italy Year of Mountains (IYM 2002) Contact: Reiner Schlitzer, [email protected] or Patrick 1-5 July, Moshi, Tanzania Monfray, [email protected] Contact: S.B. Misana, [email protected]

IHDP, START: 3rd IHDP and START bi-annual Work- 2nd LBA Science Conference shop on Human Dimensions of Urbanisation and 7-10 July, Manaus, Brazil the Transition to Sustainability Contact: LBA Central Office, [email protected] 3-14 June, Bonn, Germany Contact: Maarit Thiem, [email protected], or http:// Quaternary Climatic Changes and Environmental www.ihdp.org Crises in the Mediterranean region The 2nd International Past Grasslands Research 15-18 July, Madrid, Spain Conference (PGR 2002) Contact: Ana Vadeolmillos Rodriguez, [email protected] or http://www2.uah.es/qchange2002 13-16 June, St. Cloud, MN, USA Contact: Mikhail Blinnikov: [email protected] or Mat- ICAR5/GCTE-SEN Wind Erosion and Aeolin thew Wooller: [email protected] or http://www.visitstcloudmn.com/ pages/visitor.html Processes Conference 22-25 July, Texas Tech. University, Texas, USA Contact: John Ingram, [email protected]

Joint Global Ocean Flux Study

Final Open Science Conference For more information contact: A Sea of Change: JGOFS Accomplishments and the Mary Zawoysky, MS #43, U.S. Future of Ocean Biogeochemistry JGOFS Planning Office, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 5-8 May 2003 02543-1057, USA. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, USA Phone: +1-508-289-2834, Scientific Program Committee: Fax: 508-457-2161, Véronique Garçon, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France E-mail: [email protected] Peter Haugan, University of Bergen, Norway or David Karl, University of Hawaii, USA Roger B. Hanson, JGOFS Kon-Kee Liu, National Taiwan University, Taiwan International Project Office, Deborah Steinberg, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, USA SMR/University of Bergen, Bronte Tilbrook, CSIRO Marine Research, Australia High Technology Center, 5020 Local Organizing Committee: Bergen, Norway. Phone: +47-55-58-4244, Mark Abbott, Oregon State University Mardi Bowles, U.S. JGOFS Planning Office Fax: 55-58-9687, Ken Buesseler, U.S. JGOFS Planning Office E-mail: roger.hanson@ Hugh Ducklow, Virginia Institute of Marine Science jgofs.uib.no Elizabeth Gross, Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research Roger Hanson, JGOFS International Project Office Mary Zawoysky, U.S. JGOFS Planning Office Program will be announced. Check our web sites for further information as it becomes available: http://usjgofs.whoi.edu or http://ads.smr.uib.no/jgofs/jgofs.htm 3rd International Conference on Water Resources and GLOBEC: GLOBEC Working Group Meetings Environment Research (ICWRER): Water Quantity and 13-14 October, Qingdao, China, P.R. Quality Aspects in Modelling and Management of Eco- Contact: GLOBEC IPO, [email protected] systems 22-26 July, Dresden, Germany GLOBEC: GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee Contact: http://www.tu-dresden.de/fghhihm/normal/2nd-Announc-2.htm Meeting 14 October (pm), Qingdao, China, P.R. Geographical Renaissance at the Dawn of the Mil- Contact: GLOBEC IPO, [email protected] lennium, Regional Conference of the International Geographical Union (IGU) GLOBEC: OSM2 - 2nd GLOBEC Open Science 4-7 August, Durban, South Africa Meeting Contact: Joan Fairhurst, [email protected] 15-18 October, Qingdao, China, P.R. Contact: GLOBEC IPO, [email protected] Enviromental Catastrophes and Recoveries in the Holocene GLOBEC: Joint GLOBEC Foci WG/PICES Task team 29 August-2 September, West London, UK Meetings Contact: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/depts/geo/Catastrophe 19 October (am), Qingdao, China, P.R. Contact: GLOBEC IPO, [email protected] World Summit on Sustainable Development 2--11 September, Johannesburg, South Africa START: 16th START Scientific Steering Committee Contact: http://www.johannesburgsummit.org/ 21-23 October, Treiste, Italy Contact: START IPO, [email protected] Climate Variability, Predictability and Climate Risks 7-14 September, Bernese Oberland, Switzerland GLOBEC: PICES XI Contact: [email protected] or 21-26 October, Qingdao, China, P.R. http://www.ncccr-climate.unibe.ch Contact: GLOBEC IPO, [email protected] Atmospheric Chemistry in the Earth System: From Regional Pollution to Global Climate Change 16th International Symposium on Ice 18-25 September, Crete, Germany 2-6 December, Dunedin, New Zealand Contact: http://www.physics.otago.ac.nz/~nzice/ or email Contact: [email protected] or [email protected] http://atlas.chemistry.uch.gr/IGAC2002/

Cave Climate and Paleoclimate - Best Record of the North Pacific Synthesis Group meeting for the Global Change North Pacific Synthesis 24-27 September, Stara Zagora, Bulgaria TBA, Autumn, Nagoya, Japan Contact: Toshiro Saino, [email protected] Contact: [email protected]

START: Global Change in Northeast Asia, and TEACOM North Pacific Synthesis Group editorial meeting for Meeting an issue of the Journal of Oceanography on JGOFS NP synthesis. TBA September, Vladivostok, Russia Autumn, Sidney, BC, Canada Contact: Vladimir Kasyanov, [email protected] Contact: Toshiro Saino, [email protected] JGOFS: 17th JGOFS Scientific Steering Committee Meeting and Capacity Building / Training Course on Equatorial Pacific Synthesis Meeting and Workshop 0cean Biogeochemistry Summer, Orono, ME, USA TBA, September/October, Concepción, Chile Contact: Robert Le Borgne, [email protected] or Fei Chai, [email protected] Contact: Roger Hanson, [email protected] Continental Margin Task Team Workshop for the BAHC: Workshop on Vulnerability of Water Global Synthesis of the 5 Regional Synthesis Resources to Environmental Change TBA, Winter, TBA TBA, September, Beijing, China, P.R. Contact: Renato Quiñones, [email protected] or Larry Atkinson, Contact: BAHC IPO, [email protected] [email protected]

GLOBEC: ICES ASC (ICES Centenary) 1-8 October, Oslo, Norway Contact: GLOBEC IPO, [email protected] 2003

3rd International Limnogeology Congress 29 March-2 April, Tucson, USA Contact: Noah Lopez, [email protected]

JGOFS: 18th JGOFS Scientific Steering Committee Meeting 5-8 May, Washington DC, USA Contact: Roger Hanson, [email protected]

JGOFS: 3rd JGOFS Open Science Conference 5-8 May, Washington, DC, USA Contact: Roger Hanson, [email protected] or Ken Bues- seler, [email protected]

XVIth INQUA Congress 23-31 July, Reno Hilton Resort & Conference Center Reno, Nevada USA Contact: http://www.dri.edu/DEES/INQUA2003/inqua_home.htm

18th International Radiocarbon Conference 1-5 September, Wellington, New Zealand Contact: http://www.14conference2003.co.nz

International Human Dimensions Programme Vacancy Announcement Executive Director of the International Human Dimensions Programme

The International Council for Science (ICSU) and the International Social Science Council (ISSC) invite applications for the position of Executive Director of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP). The Executive Director facilitates the expeditious and orderly development, implementation and evaluation of the IHDP Programme. A detailed listing of the requirements for the position of the Executive Director is available on the IHDP web-site (www.ihdp.org). The successful candidate wil be appointed by ICSU and ISSC for a 3-year period, renewable. The IHDP Secretariat is located in Bonn, Germany. The position will be filled by 1 April 2002, or as soon as possible thereafter. The salary is competitive and will take due account of the experience and qualifications of the candidate. Letters of application with a curriculum vitae and the names of three referees should be received no later than 15 January 2002 by the IHDP Secretariat, Attn. Search Committee, Walter-Flex-Str. 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany, Fax +49 228 73 9054, e-mail: [email protected]. Interviews for the post will be scheduled in February 2002. Next edition of the IGBP Note to contributors Newsletter… Articles for “Science Features” should achieve a balance of (i) solid scientific content, and (ii) appeal for the broad global • Special edition on IGBP change research and policy communities rather than to a Phase II narrow discipline. Articles should be between 800 and 1500 words in length, and be accompanied by one to three key graphics or figures (colour or black and white). Contributions for “Discussion Forum” should be between 500 and 1000 words in length and address a broad issue in global change science. A “Discussion Forum” article can include up to 2 figures. “Correspondence” should be no more than 200 words and be in the form of a Letter to the Editor in response to an article in a previous edition of the Newsletter or relating to a specific global change issue. Please include author and contact details.

Required Image Quality for IGBP Publications Photographic images should be saved in TIFF format. All other images including charts, graphs, illustrations, maps and logos should be saved in EPS format. All pixel images need to be high resolution (at least 300 pixels per inch). Some charts graphs and illustrations can be reconstructed at the IGBP Secretariat, however, poor quality photographic images, maps and logos cannot be improved. Material “bor- rowed” from the Internet cannot be used for publication, as it does not fit the requirements listed above. If you have queries regarding image quality for the Global Change NewsLetter please contact John Bellamy E-mail: [email protected]

Deadlines for 2002: ISSN 0284-5865 March issue (special edition on IGBP Phase II) Deadline for material: February 8 June issue Deadline for material: May 10 September issue Deadline for material: August 9 December issue Deadline for material: November 1 Edited by Susannah Eliott Technical Editing by John Bellamy Send contributions by email to the Editor, Susannah Eliott Requests for reproduction of articles appearing in this distribution should be E-mail: [email protected]; Phone: +46 8 6739 556; addressed to the Editor: Reception: +46 8 16 64 48; Fax: +46 8 16 64 05 (E-mail: [email protected]) NewsLetter requests and change of address information should be sent to: IGBP Secretariat The Royal Swedish Academy of Science Box 50005, S-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden Tel: (+46-8) 16 64 48 Fax: (+46-8) 16 64 05 Correction E-mail: [email protected] http://www.igbp.kva.se In the “Correspondence” section of NewsLetter No. 47, the author The IGBP Report Series is published in of the letter entitled “Manipulating terrestrial carbon sinks” was annex to the Global Change NewsLetter misspelt. The author’s correct name is Gamini Seneviratne.