WQ IS DEMOCRACY THE WILSON QUARTERLY SURVEYING THE WORLD OF IDEAS WORTH IT?

THE GRIDLOCK ILLUSION

WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 W SURVEYING THE WORLD OF IDEAS V. 37, NUMBER 1 Q PUBLISHED BY THE WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS

COVER STORY FEATURES IS DEMOCRACY WORTH IT? THE GRIDLOCK ILLUSION by R. SHEP MELNICK The Arab Spring’s aftermath brings fresh reminders Arguments that our political system that transitions to democracy are not painless. is bedeviled by gridlock overlook They bring instability and uncertainty. Some fail. its capacity for major policy change. Our authors weigh the risks and rewards in countries From its strong response to the around the world. financial crisis to the passage of health care reform, Washington has chalked up more accomplishments than most people realize. EDITOR’S COMMENT FINDINGS IN ESSENCE Our survey of notable articles from other journals and magazines

1. WHY WAIT FOR DEMOCRACY? CURRENT BOOKS by LARRY DIAMOND Reviews of new and noteworthy nonfiction 2. VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM by JOSHUA KUCERA LETTERS

3. AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES ABOUT US by NORWAN, MARIAM, AND NASIMA

4. AFRICA’S LONG SPRING The views expressed herein are not by STEVE McDONALD necessarily those of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

ON THE COVER: A woman waits to cast her vote in ABOVE: In the notorious Port-au-Prince slum of Cité Soleil, the Senegalese presidential election of 2007, in which voters cast their ballots in Haiti’s 2006 national elections. President Abdoulaye Wade won a second term. Photograph: Charles Eckert / Redux Photograph: Finbarr O’Reilly / Reuters / Corbis EDITOR’S COMMENT STEVEN LAGERFELD is the editor of The Wilson THE ANSWER IS YES Quarterly. Before joining the magazine’s staff in the Almost since the “Third Wave” of global 1980s, he worked at The democratization began in the 1970s, tran- Public Interest and the Insti- sitions to democracy have been a major fo- tute for Educational Affairs. cus of the Woodrow Wilson Center. Our His articles and reviews have appeared in The Atlantic, cover “cluster” of essays in this issue is the Harper’s, The New Republic, latest product of a commitment grounded The Wall Street Journal, and in the Center’s landmark Transitions From other publications. Authoritarian Rule (1986), a four-volume compendium of articles growing out of conferences, seminars, and other pro- the relatively affluent societies that made grams held at the Center in previous years. the transition in the past. And while the In April, Johns Hopkins University Press Internet and social media help the dem- will reissue the series’ capstone volume, ocratic cause in many ways, they speed Transitions From Authoritarian Rule: Ten- up the pace of decision making, abet the tative Conclusions About Uncertain Democ- spread of rumor and misinformation, and racies, with a new prologue by Abraham add further complexity to political life. F. Lowenthal and Cynthia J. Arnson. At least one concern has remained con- The authors—Lowenthal was head stant since the Third Wave began: Hard of the Center’s Latin American pro- as it is to establish electoral democracy, it gram when the Transitions project was may be even harder to establish true de- launched, and Arnson holds that position mocracy. Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez and today—make interesting points about the Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are elect- differences between then and now. In 1986 ed leaders, for example, but their com- there was optimism aplenty, but also much patriots do not enjoy what we think of as worry about the pitfalls facing democra- democratic citizenship. It is because there tizing countries. Today there is somewhat are so many ways the quest for democra- less optimism, and a host of new chal- cy can go astray that we ask in this issue, lenges have arisen. Many of the countries “Is democracy worth it?” Despite all the now leaving authoritarianism behind have perils and new challenges, I myself can- little or no historical experience with de- not imagine any other answer but yes. mocracy. Most are also much poorer than — Steven Lagerfeld THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 FINDINGS BRIEF NOTES OF INTEREST ON ALL TOPICS 1. 4. Prague’s No Spin Zone Open Covenants, Havel meets the press—on his terms Secretly Arrived At When Václav Havel spoke, Western... Fourteen Points’ false promise In 1918, enunciating the list of guide- lines for the postwar world that would... 5. Wilde’s Women Constance and inconstancy Beyond plays and bons mots, Oscar 2. Wilde may be best remembered for... Prohibition Class The ’20s didn’t roar for all Xenophobia-tinged class warfare helped... 3. Death Watch Newsroom countdown Insurance actuaries aren’t the only...

6. Distant Laughter Humor’s calculus Comedy is tragedy plus time. Whoever said that—the line has been attributed...

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013

- - - - Toronto Toronto Havel spent most of his Havel t life standing up toadul - com Czechoslovakia’s Security regime. munist wire followed, forces inter harassed, tapped, him, jailed and rogated, for once a four-year After the Berlin term. came in No down Wall Havel— 1989, vember out six months just of prison—helped lead that attracted protests of thousands hundreds gov - The of Czechs. put up ernment didn’t In late of a fight. much the federal December, assembly unanimously president, elected Havel a choice ratified by votersby a choice ratified for Except in June 1990. period, six-month one ), and “a moral giant in moral giant in “a and ), THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Not that the accolades were unde were the accolades that Not ), a “secular saint” ( saint” “secular a Newsweek), t, and poet, poet, and essayis t, playwright, A served. Globe and Mail Globe ). (Der Spiegel an era of pygmies” ernational icon of integrity” integrity” of icon ernational int “an was hero” “genuine a (The York Times), New ( Western jour- Western

nalists didn’t just listen—they genuflected. just listen—they genuflected. nalists didn’t The dissident-turned-Czech-president When Václav Havel spoke, When Václav BETTMANN / CORBIS Substance over style: When he addressed the U.S. Congress in 1990, Václav Havel, the newly elected presidentSubstance over style: When he addressed the U.S. Congress coach. Congress gave him a rapturous response anyway. of Czechoslovakia, rebuffed the advice of a speech Havel meets the press—on meets his terms Havel PRAGUE’S PRAGUE’S ZONE SPIN NO

FINDINGS

- - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY In addition, Havel was a meticulous Havel In addition, During the communist era, Czecho During era, the communist But Havel’s wariness of the press— But Havel’s slovakia’s official media routinely official media dis slovakia’s Zantovsky statements, torted Havel’s last in Prague said at a conference Havel for instance, In 1977, October. ac “criminal in to engage not pledged that for in exchange a promise tivities” Rudé Právo, prison. from he be released official newspa- Party’s the Communist falsely claimed pledged that he had per, Some political activities.” “all to avoid and of his supporters felt betrayed, He developed a was devastated. Havel and it deep-seated distrust of the press, stayed with him. he was a “By vocation, wordsmith. pects questions about his politicalpects questions leg- they care only about sex Instead, acy. Havel’s Zantovsky, to Michael cording secretarypress in the early and 1990s currentlyCzechthe the to ambassador United Kingdom. 2007, after his final term as president, after term his final as president, 2007, “Leaving.” play in his responded Havel Whenreporters arrive to interview a he ex chancellor end of his term, at the and scandal. as Czech—began as well long Western the From marriage. his second before journal - some presidency, his of outset ac difficult customer,” “a ists found him - - - To Western ears, “everything he “everything he ears, Western To with Havel relationship the press’s Yet news Western in Although coverage he served as president until 2003, first of first of he served 2003, until as president Czechoslovakia the Czech then of and in 2011. He died Republic. histori Yale beautiful,” said sounded Shore observedan Marci e-mail. by and politician, sound like a “He didn’t In that was part of our enchantment.” Total The Afterlife of of Taste Ashes: The (Crown), Europe Eastern in itarianism Shore quotes an American journalist of speech to a joint session Havel’s on “If I could in 1990: Congress the U.S. run I would for God.” talk like that, complicated than it seemed. was more much largely positive, remained media of the Czech media grew critical during the first purely political, At reign. Havel’s criticism ultimately became as personal Havel’s Wilson, to Paul according well, friend trans and the English-language In particular, works. of his lator of many the Czech Wilson said in an interview, wife, Havel’s and public revered press him alongside worked who had Olga, a Following during his dissident years. Less than she died in 1997. illness, long married Havel an actress, later, a year Some Czechthe of Veskrnova. Dagmar stepped up their attacks the on press In after going by his newpresident wife.

FINDINGS

------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY - pub Others Havel’s tried to refine the dictates of resisted Just as he had ed, “It might.”) ed, addressed he Before style. lic-speaking an American advis in 1990, Congress Albright, Madeleine er—Prague-born secretarythe future of state—arranged In for him to meet with a speech coach. TV in it was the Zantovsky’s account, The expert told terview all again: over and up while speaking, to look Havel the instruction. serenely ignored Havel the speechdeclared, coach Exasperated, “This a meeting address man could not Association, of the local Parent-Teacher Con of the U.S. a joint session let alone ended up Members of Congress gress!” giving him a standing ovation anyway. the dictates resisted Havel communists, and consultants. publicists, of journalists, “Hedefended his identity fierce more ly ever known,” other man I’ve than any “The forms of manipu said Zantovsky. natural to any that are lating the press the idea politician—the idea of a spin, him to foreign as bite—were sound a of . . . as the idea of a desert is to an Eskimo. ters conducted the first American TV American the first ters conducted interview year. that same with Havel if the reporter e-mail might Asked by Zantovskyrespond Walters, been have What was get—that see is what you you Havel.” Václav

------don’t any emotions.” The reporter The emotions.” any feel Havel’s demeanor in television inter- Havel’s minutes Five The interviewresumed. writer—and as a writer, he did not only he did writer—and a writer, as mes of the content about the think the shape of the but also about sage, “He simply Zantovsky said. message,” try journalistshated it when would to him, rephrase interpret him, edit him, because he felt the original that phrase was the right one.” a In 1990, too. views posed challenges, the Unit- TV reporter from prominent ed States—Zantovsky declined to name He her—interviewedPrague. in Havel while gaz her first questions answered She instructed him to ing at the floor. She question; another asked up. look The jour floor. at the he looked again, who to Zantovsky, nalist complained the man “Look, telling her, remembers being interro spent the last 10 years and you the authorities, gated by a gives eye—this them in the look lot away.” the reporter and ap stopped again later, was com Havel Zantovsky. proached why said; she cerebral, too as across ing cam on his emotions he display wouldn’t “By that time I was a little upset,” era? Maybe he “I said, Zantovsky recalled. doesn’t finished the interview and stormedout (BarbaraWal without saying goodbye.

FINDINGS

- - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY During Prohibition, though, beer all beer all though, During Prohibition, At the turn of the 20th century, the turn the of the 20th century, At nual per capita consumption reached 20 reached nual per capitaconsumption effect in took Prohibition before gallons beer the nation’s a rate that made 1920, most popular beverage (water second was first). concentrated Bootleggers but vanished. contentThe higher alcohol liquor. hard on addi In per gallon. meant higher profits in the Making of Making in the American Beverages Press). Univ. (Columbia An Americandrank beer. workingman helped - Per drive temperance the movement: Americans native-born haps upstanding immigrant but their liquor, could hold - the move In practice, couldn’t. laborers - Prohibi achievement, landmark ment’s the same sort reflected of divide. tion, class“Itworking was the that suffered Smith writesin F. Andrew most,” the Points Turning Drinking Fifteen History: Xenophobia-tinged class warfare class warfare Xenophobia-tinged UNDERWOOD & UNDERWOOD / CORBIS & UNDERWOOD UNDERWOOD PROHIBITION CLASS CLASS PROHIBITION roar for all ’20s didn’t The Prohibition cost working-class Americans their alcoholic beverage of choice—and sometimes, as in beverage of choice—and sometimes, as in Prohibition cost working-class Americans their alcoholic jobs. the case of these picketing brewery workers, their

FINDINGS - , where he’s the he’s where , aren’t the only ones aren’t THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Telegraph The lineup may change if cities and cities and if may change The lineup In Britain’s In Britain’s who try to calculate life expectancy. In In who try to calculate life expectancy. deciding when to draft an obituary for journalists make a still-living celebrity, predictions. their own Insurance actuaries Insurance down, Smith said by e-mail, beer now now beer Smith e-mail, said by down, behind fourth to occupy appears place, and coffee. soft drinks, water, to restrict the proposals states adopt sales of soft to combat drinks in order City York as New childhood obesity, Some that studies suggest has done. families drink poorer from children wealthier kids from soda than more the next Prohibition, Perhaps families. willworking affect the like the last one, class most. obituary editor, Harry de Quetteville obituary editor, large “a writes have staff his and he that perhaps several thou- number of obits, The in various of readiness.” stages sand, is the principal of the subject age factor an in determining whether to prepare but de Quette obituary of time, ahead villecolleaguesand watchalso for ill - and high-risk jobs substance abuse, ness, DEATH WATCH WATCH DEATH countdown Newsroom - - - - - Prohibition had other effects as well, well, other effectsas had Prohibition Per comeback. a slow Beer made tion, speakeasies had overhead costs, such costs, overhead had speakeasies tion, affected that hadn’t as bribesto police, speak As a result, bars. pre-Prohibition ofteneasy cocktails were too pricey for beer-drinkers. the quondam most al- Previously, to Smith. according - Respect sold in saloons. been had cohol clear steered had them. of able women and came to speakeasies, But women they no lon repeal, after Prohibition’s Cocktail parties grew bars. avoided ger Hosts too. duringcommon Prohibition, bar illicitobtain hire liquor and would Cocktail parties it. dispense to tenders es after popular remained Prohibition, pecially during Depression—they the In ad cheaper than dinner parties. were deprived the federal Prohibition dition, from of considerable money government D. After Franklin liquor. on taxes excise Roosevelt and a Democratic Congress feder- increasing 1933, office in took became - revenues argu al compelling a end of the year, By the ment for repeal. ended. had Prohibition its reach capita didn’t consumption level until the mid- pre-Prohibition beer consumption Since then, 1970s. no longer But it’s slightly. has increased bev second-most-popular - nation’s the to pin hard data are Although erage.

FINDINGS THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY . “She The was York Times. New But not on our to-do list and an assignment was our to-do list and on when believe it or not, about to be made, “It said. McDonald the news came,” ritually we course of and kick happens, But in this case ourselves when it does. obituaries for her were posted online, online, posted obituaries forwere her newspapers the world around appeared it.” anticipated to have

had BERTRAND GUAY / AFP / GETTY IMAGES GUAY BERTRAND writers saw Whitney Houston died young, at age 48, but obituary articles. the bad news coming and had already drafted biographical - - - The Telegraph The Telegraph The New York Times The Times New York WhenWhitney the singer Houston its obit ready. Though she was only 48, onlyThough she was 48, its obit ready. history long a had she drug of abuse. in itself,” death was sad “Her premature - “How sad much Quetteville writes. de the speed that that judging by der then, or hobbies. the same ap- takes much to its according proach, Bill Mc- obituaries editor, practical rea “For Donald. but even limits.” they have generalists, died in early 2012, sons we’re constrained in constrained we’re sons can we research many how so we and write in advance, to be highlyhave selective, choices the determined by on impact eminence, fame, McDon etc.,” the world, “One e-mail. ald said by theis consideration other of difficultydegree an obit uary if we might present to write forced it on were behoove It would deadline. to prepare for example, us, a Nobel on in advance one particlein winner physics, preferably a writer by who understands the subject. Our deadline writers quick-study are

FINDINGS - - - - , adding adding , A Journalist’s Diplomatic Diplomatic A Journalist’s THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY In early 1919, when reporters when arrived In early 1919, “intense sparked The announcement Baker sided with Behind the scenes, it, according to to according it, Mission: Ray Stannard Baker’s World War War World Ray Baker’s Stannard Mission: Hamil- Maxwell John edited by I Diary, Robert and ton Mann (Louisiana State Press). Univ. negotiations the peace to cover in Paris they expect I, War World that followed They to the press. ed meetings to be open learned otherwiseRay Stannard from Americanan writer servedwho Baker, during spokesman the con Wilson’s as would Baker said, Negotiations, ference. in secret. be conducted who the journalists, among indignation” - of the Presi violation “a it considered - cove ‘open about ‘Point’ famous dent’s said an edito ” nants openly arrived at,’ Inquirerrial The Philadelphia in emissary to the Wilson’s as that Baker, the most to become “certain was press, disliked man in journalism.” he wrote in his “Publicity,” the reporters. “is of democra indeed the test journal, Fourteen Wilson But felt differently, cy.” president, The notwithstanding. Points certain artistic “a harbored Baker wrote, work half-done to exposing repugnance believedand that day,” of light the to conferences the world secret by “settling is the only way.”

- - - - - enunciating the list of guidelines prepared an obit when an prepared Telegraph The De Quetteville delicately suggests “Few people like to reflect on wheth- like to reflect people “Few PEN COVENANTS, PEN COVENANTS, In 1918, forthe postwar worldbe that would come known as the “Fourteen Points,” Points,” “Fourteen as the known come Wilson gave first Woodrow President open of peace, covenants “open to place senti- A nice-sounding ly arrived at.” actually believe Wilson but didn’t ment, we scrambled to reportwe news the - imme a and produced site Web diately the on very full and fine obituary within hours crit our chief pop-music Pareles, Jon by of the material much already who had ic, in his head.” Fourteen Points’ false promise Points’ Fourteen O ARRIVED AT SECRETLY ald declined whether the Times to say “We Harryhas a Prince hand. obit on those in our the names of divulge don’t he said. file,” advance er the Grim Reaper is hovering near sharpening the old out, whetstone by, “But on de Quetteville writes. scythe,” it do we afraid, I’m the obituaries desk, all the time.” it learned of Prince Harry’s- learnedit Prince of deploy first McDon ment to Afghanistan in 2008. that

FINDINGS

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of this of this the greatest fault THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY As a college student in the As a college student in the 1870s, according to British to British according 1870s, Wilde Moyle, author Franny Beyond plays and bons mots, mots, Beyond plays and bons WildeOscar - be best re may for years two the membered “gross spent in prison for he indecency”—sex with men. about people know Few female inamoratas or Wilde’s his wife. dated Florence Balcombe She ended for years. two of him in favor up rejecting Bram a fledgling novelist: author of the future Stoker, pursued two Wilde Dracula. During as well. actresses WOMEN WOMEN WILDE’S WILDE’S and inconstancy Constance

Assessing the events in Paris, Bak the eventsAssessing in Paris, have triedhave rally to support public for in rather acquiesce than proposals his treaty. an unjust “ er wrote that to is the failure conference whole peace into our confidence”—take the people of abrogation Wilson’s in other words, Points. Fourteen the first of the - - Bak ended, conference peace As the er deemed its product, the Versailles Versailles the product, its er deemed was that terrible document” “a Treaty, to “retribution a spirit of by animated the Ger against of revenge” the verge many by judgment shared mans—a Baker Secrecy, historians. subsequent the American weakened had believed, Wilson should position. negotiating RDA / GETTY IMAGES his wife Constance Lloyd had two sons, including Cyril, shown Cyril, shown his wife Constance Lloyd had two sons, including eyes wandered here with his mother in 1889. But soon Wilde’s from women to men. Within a few years of their marriage in 1884, Oscar Wilde and and few years of their marriage in 1884, Oscar Wilde a Within

FINDINGS

- - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Shocked, Constance Wilde Constance a ju got Shocked, Wilde prison in from was released a few Wilde in 1899, grave visited her As Moyle notes, the lawsuit was a was a the lawsuit notes, As Moyle fense counsel identified 10 young men young men fense counsel identified 10 Wilde with whom committed had inde of gross and other acts “sodomy Wilde dropped cency immorality.” and that confession a de facto his lawsuit, He was arrested, true. the charges were years’ two to sentenced and convicted, labor. hard changed her surname dicial separation, and fled into hiding with to Holland, “He saysloved he that her children. that is better than and that too much “This is true she told a friend. hate!” unnatural an was his but abstractedly, that I think is worse a madness love, than hate.” ex Though he and Constance 1897. some warm, changed letters—some testy—they never saw each other again. Aftersurgery undergoing (surviving died Constance why) say don’t records in 1898. relationship ultimately precipitated ultimately precipitated relationship When Douglas’s downfall. Wilde’s called SholtoJohn Douglas, father, the writer sued Wilde a sodomite, for libel. de the In court, fateful miscalculation. Wilde’s lover in the early 1890s; the early in the lover the Wilde’s 1890s;

- - - - (Pega Constance: The Tragic The andConstance: Scan fan, Lord Alfred Lord Alfred Dorian fan, Gray In 1881 Wilde began courting WildeIn 1881 began courting In A college, he was often seen with Lily Lily with often he was seen college, a he made 1879, in Later, Langtry. for Sarah world-renowned play the When arrived she for her Bernhardt. he was waiting at to Britain, first visit which the dock bouquet of lilies, with a he lovingly feet. at her placed from woman a young Lloyd, Constance Some of Dublin prosperous a family. hair long Wilde’s found relatives her “I and effete mannerisms off-putting. like him awfully it but I suppose much told her brother. Lloyd is very taste,” bad and she In 1884, But she came around. She birth gave to Wilde married. were 1886. in 1885 and sons Wilde Oscar dalous Life of Mrs. Wilde argues that Moyle was at sus), tracted mainly at the time to women he though, later, A year married. he got seemed infatuated with a Cambridge undergraduate named Harry Marillier. Wilde said that In a letter to Marillier, his wife dwin had his attitude toward curious of ardour mixture “a dled to Reviewers to began and indifference.” of some in themes discernhomosexual including his 1891 novel works, Wilde’s The Picture of Dorian. Gray became Bosie, as known Douglas,

FINDINGS

- - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Another experimentAnother at social looked A series of studies lends support to But not all humor rests on tragedy. tragedy. on But not all humor rests der, too. Here, the researchers suggest, suggest, researchers the Here, too. der, On apply. doesn’t the tragedy equation humor about mishaps the contrary, diminishes with psychological dis- hypothesize we that “In sum, tance. the humor distance should increase such as getting in tragedies, perceived humor the decrease but car, a by hit such as stubbing a toe,” in mishaps, incidents that had ticipants recounted over either funnier or less funny grown humor time added As expected, time. to tragedies and subtracted it from mishaps. theyif asked were Participants distance. to learn that a young be amused would inadvertently had donated woman money to a charity via text messaging. Modest mishaps can fod comedy be they write. par experiment, In one the hypothesis. is tragedy plus time or other psycho time or plus is tragedy distance Psychological logical distance. It can can as temporal. well be spatial as distant more (strangers are also be social hypothetical or (imag than relatives) than real distant more eventsined are Without sort some - of psycho ones). tragedy isn’t they say, logical distance, painful. It’s funny.

- - - Whoever Psychological Science Psychological A. Peter McGrawthe Universityof Peter A. Moyle quotes a letter, more poignant more a letter, quotes Moyle said that—the line has been attributedbeen has line that—the said Lenny Twain, Mark others, among to, Al- Woody and Burnett, Carol Bruce, to a according it mostlylen—got right, study published in 2012). (Oct. coau- and three Boulder, of Colorado, Comedy a bit: the equation thors tweak Comedy is tragedy plus time. months before his own death of ce of death his own before months “It was very tragic meningitis. rebral name carvedseeing her a tomb— on not mentioned my name her surname, “I was he later recounted. of course,” deeply affected—with sense also of a Nothing of allthe uselessness regrets. been otherwisecould have and life is a terrible thing.” Lloyd that Constance than prescient, Wildewrote to their wed before “When for my hus you I have ding. “I will hold you she promised, band,” fast with chains & devotion of love or shall me, never leave so that you as I can long as love anyone love & comfort.” DISTANT LAUGHTER LAUGHTER DISTANT calculus Humor’s

FINDINGS

—Stephen Bates —Stephen THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY “Tragedies fail to be funny when when funny fail to be “Tragedies Their article an epigraph features one is too close for comfort,” McGraw McGraw is too closeone for comfort,” “but mishaps and colleagues conclude, is too far one when be funny to fail to care.” is when I “Tragedy from Brooks: Mel you walk is when Comedy cut my finger. into an open sewer and die.”

- - - Whenwas fairly away given amount the was funnier incident modest—$50—the to a friendif it happened than to a strang sizable, when the amount was But er. participants reac the opposite had ac had woman that the Told tions: cidentallynearly away given $2,000, they when amused more theywere learned that she was a stranger rather than a friend.

FINDINGS What gridlock? OGPHOTO / GETTY IMAGES THE GRIDLOCK ILLUSION

If Washington seems to get much less done than it once did, it is partly because it is trying to do so much more.

BY R. SHEP MELNICK

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 ------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY This pattern scholars has led some to ple.” But “the people” are really a frac are “the people” But ple.” and increasinglytious and partisan lot, Washington in 2012 they sent back to nearly all of the hyperpartisan politi achieved suchcians who had stunningly ratings approval duringlow the previ As the political scientist years. two ous voters pointed out, has Fenno Richard but theytheir love hate Congress, may Consequent member of Congress. own run most members by for Congress ly, - routinely re Voters running against it. individual legislators for engaging ward in behavior that regularly the produces they abhor. action collective conclude that the heart of our current arrange lies in our institutional problems Our unusually structure complex ments. sepa- that combines of government—one and feder bicameralism, ration of powers, “veto alism—not only embeds numerous but frus- process, in the legislative points” trates making it nearly accountability by to whom to know impossible for voters Our for public policy. blame or reward particularly bud on discontents, current new give urgency issues, get to a critique they are beholden to “special interests,” interests,” “special to beholden they are be fine if our that alland to insist would “the peo onlywould listen to leaders

- - - -

R. SHEP MELNICK

The most common public response to response public The most common

T IS HARD TO FIND A NEWS ARTICLE ON TO FIND A NEWS ARTICLE T IS HARD these days in which the word Congress prominently. does not figure “gridlock” these developments has been to blame to been has developments these for engag- our elected representatives to charge that ing in petty partisanship, After months of tense negotiations, After tense negotiations, of months Barack Obamaand President Congress “fiscal the over going barelyavoided and their last-minute cliff ” in January, months more many leaves agreement The of inconclusive to come. bargaining na- a revise to branch legislative yet has immigration policytional that pleases even or to pass a stripped-down no one, pathway-to-citizenship of leg version popular widespread that enjoys islation Everyone that Social knows support. Security insolvency, toward is headed the harder wait, we and that the longer But Con it will be to fix the problem. after nothing. has done gress Congress almost everyone recog Most important, both must we nizes years that in coming raise and cut entitlements in order taxes has yet Congress to avert fiscal disaster, taken no significant steps in that direc rating its approval has Meanwhile, tion. to the lowest percent, 10 slipped below levels ever recorded.

By I

THE GRIDLOCK ILLUSION - - CHRIS WEYANT / CARTOON STOCK / CARTOON CHRIS WEYANT THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY “Gridlock” is the new term favored is the new term favored “Gridlock” by critics who are frustrated criticsWash are who by with across people by used is it and ington, not just liberals. the political spectrum, The triumph the of this neologism over - “stale descriptors conventional more is not an accident. “deadlock” and mate” criticism how of our institu It reveals has subtly arrangements tional shifted The term has expanded. as government caught in 1980 as a way on “gridlock” to describe so trafficcongestion severe that cars block intersections, multiple - - - - of our constitutional arrangements thatof our constitutional Wilson and the Woodrow dates back to the turn of the From Era. Progressive progressives century the 1960s, through “horseand New Dealers insisted that our - incompati were institutions and buggy” ble with the demands of modern govern was the they charged, result, The ment. which effectin democracy,” of “deadlock meant that an unholy alliance of conser Southernvative Democrats and Repub could blocklicans the initia in Congress of liberal Democratictives presidents.

THE GRIDLOCK ILLUSION - - - STEFANO RELLANDINI / REUTERS / CORBIS STEFANO THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY ly, begin to contradict one another. For For another. one to contradict begin ly, born in the policy,” “energy example, a motleyinto collec has grown 1970s, policies of conflicting of hundreds tion of which some seek to and programs, subsidize or otherwisevari promote formsous of energy production use and Similar discourage. that others tax and policy, rife are in welfare contradictions United StatesUnited feel began to the effects politicalwhat of Heclo Hugh scientist As congestion.” “policy has aptly called and more, does more the government bump policies increasingly overlap, all too frequent and, another, into one It was at about that time that the time that the It was at about that preventing movement in any direction. direction. in any movement preventing It quickly became metaphor the leading politics used to describe congressional initial Reagan’s Ronald after President victorieslegislative in 1981. Gridlock stops at the water’s edge. Congress has sustained America’s long commitment has sustained America’s edge. Congress Gridlock stops at the water’s and enacted many other controversial policies.in Afghanistan, where this moonlit flag flew in 2009, ther. another. to contradict one all too frequently, begin begin frequently, all too increasingly overlap and, overlap increasingly more and more, policies more, policies more and nt does nt does gov ernme As the

THE GRIDLOCK ILLUSION

- - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Furthermore, by requiring very requiring by broad Furthermore, tary by or manipulation public passions political insiders. the Constitu majorities laws, to enact what Madison of the power reduces tion By combining faction.” “majority called house whose members servea lower terms with an upper house two-year terms, six-year whose members enjoy respon also combines the Constitution with public opinion to current siveness of interests to the long-term attention dividing the by Moreover, nation. the parts into two legislature and grant- the to the president, power ing veto the legislative prevents Constitution branch—which “necessarily predomi Madi in republican government, nates” into all power “drawing wrote—from son it In other words, its impetuous vortex.” both judicial independence and protects “public instability” would not onlynot - un would instability” “public weaken and dermine public confidence Statesthe United internationally but “unreasonable advantage” an give would and enterprising, the “the sagacious, to few industrious the moneyed over the and uniformed mass of the people.” an opportunity providing But by for a bicameralism thought,” second “sober possibilitythe reduce legis- that would of momen be the product would lation power. presidential

- - - - - There but that the There can be no doubt Making it easier to pass legislation, gridlock argument captures key features Who could of American government. establishes that the Constitution deny “obstacle textbookscivics callwhat an makes it that Hill” Capitol course on excruciatingly legisla difficult to enact the increase would observed, Madison resulting The of the law.” “mutability health care policy, and what we now call now we what and policy, care health policy—whichbudget includes virtually everything gov our enormous national argument “stalemate” The ernment does. the obstaclesfocused an on to creating regulatoryextensive state. and welfare to the refers in contrast, “Gridlock,” difficulty of managing and coordinat and regulatory welfare ing the extensive managed somehow have we that state to build. should We issues? controversial on tion that the Founders though, remember, to make the legisla reason good had James Madison so arduous. process tive of everywas not enamored component helped to he had of the Constitution was especially by create—he dismayed the clause for providing equal represen of alltation states in the Senate—but a sophisticatedhe provided defense of commonly blamed that are the features for gridlock.

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- - GETTY IMAGES THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY The Constitution’s critics also tend The Constitution’s Supreme Court those por invalidate of the justices of the law that five tions unfair. consider by created to assume that the dangers far greater are inaction government premature, rash, causedthose than by They express or intemperate action. and “mutability” no concern about the that so worried Madison. “instability” They- tend to assume—despite over whelming evidence to the contrary— mistakes caneas be that government’s government In reality, ily remedied. that constituencies create programs of acutely aware highlyare organized, govern- from receive the benefits they and strategically to block placed ment, In other words, substantial change.

- - - Today’s critics of the Constitution critics of the Constitution Today’s versity of Texas law professor Sanford law professor Texas versity of argued that they have Levinson today, shortcoming Con of the the greatest to allow popular is its failure stitution What about the majorities to prevail. of majoritydanger and tyranny faction of the majority? Certainly no contem porary can law professor be indifferent to the plight of politically unpopular of The unstated assumption minorities. contemporary is that this progressives Sincejob can safely be left to the courts. we judiciary, an activist have already we can tolerate Congress. an activist now then let the Let do more, Congress tend to be less skeptical than Madison tend to be less skepticalthan Madison From was of simple majoritarianism. Wilson a century Uni to ago Woodrow A news ticker in New York City’s Times Square announces the passage of the $700 billion Troubled announces the passage of the $700 billion Troubled Square Times City’s A news ticker in New York financial crisis. to the nation’s one of several strong government responses Asset Relief Program in 2008,

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- - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Advocates of party of Advocates had government ers in the House of Representatives of Representatives the House ers in that rivaled those powers acquired had Speakers the of “czar” of the famous House ( for who example) Joe Cannon, Within a century reigned had earlier. so “veto points” the most of the House, frequently stale decried for promoting the Today, been eliminated. mate had Speaker effectively determines which as the as well bills to the floor, come rules each. on for voting amending and to rose once who chairs, Committee the basis of seniority on power and ex now are powers, near-baronial ercised Votes of partyunder the control leaders. importanton issues follow party lines. What the majority-party in leadership it almost always gets. the House wants, DuringW. presidencythe George of Republicans briefly for example, Bush, and House of both the control gained and they a rammed through the Senate, series of tax cuts and a major expansion of Medicare with virtually no support Democrats. from ideological more assumed that stronger, par- parties dominant allow one would gov- the to direction tycoherent give to On occasion that ernment as a whole. But neither the Republicans nor is true. to build managed the Democrats have control of Congress in 1995, party lead 1995, in of Congress control - - - - -

OLITICAL PARTIES HAVE LONG BEEN LONG BEEN HAVE OLITICAL PARTIES the chief mechanism for building majorities that pull our together

By the time the Republicans took By the time the Republicans took Inaction can certainlyInaction be costly but er, it was clear parties that our legislative er, a sea change. undergoing were constitutionally separated institutions. constitutionally separated institutions. were ours century, 20th the of most For par- “umbrella” internally heterogeneous the building blocks ties that provided for guaranteewithout - coalitions legislative ing partisan majorities in either house howev In the early 1990s, of Congress. sometimes there are advantages to in advantages are there sometimes delays are often temporary, but mistakes oftendelays are temporary, last forever. It the case rain. Consider of acid action. but became a political in the 1970s, issue it until address did nothing to Congress this was consid years, many For 1990. a prime of gridlock—justered example greenhouse on inaction as congressional regulatory But the scheme gases is today. eventually acid Congress used to control has rights, emission marketable rain, pollu better at reducing much proved quicklytion cheaply and than the kind regulation of command-and-control almost exclusively upon relied Congress pro delay In other words, in the 1970s. duced smarter action. government P

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into the banking system. trillion into the banking system. sury Reserve Department and the Federal announced a plan to pump an additional $1 Congress passed a $168 billion bipar- billion $168 a passed Congress by package negotiated tisan stimulus Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader Boehner, John • After and Chrysler, to keep General Motors, the federal government AIG afloat, in managing their a central role played oviding government suddenly The downsizing. became stockholder the largest in three companies. biggest of the nation’s • Even ore - pro its push to managed administration strong despite Congress posal through Republicans. from opposition • With bailed out—and Congress White House, essentially federally over—the took cre and Mae ated mortgage Fannie giants nly $142 billion to the adding Mac, Freddie total bailout. • Several ation, once once ation, polariz Party a cure for considered now only seems stalemate, worse. the problem to make

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On the surface this combination On the surface this combination set Relief Program (TARP) to address address to (TARP) Program Relief set The Bush the subprime mortgage crisis. • In As Troubled the $700 billion created of constitutional structure, partisan partisan structure, constitutional of and a fickle electorate polarization, the perfectseems to create storm of though, despair, we Before gridlock. worth be it would taking a closer of the problem. at the extent look not as things are fronts, On many for ex Consider, as they seem. bad resilient electoral majorities. Indeed, Indeed, electoral majorities. resilient party as one as soon to be gain seems of government, control ing effective The its mandate. revoke the voters which ended the Dem 2010 election, brief by monopoly power on ocrats’ House to the Republicans, giving the of this was just the latest manifestation in The same thing happened dynamic. it seems, The public, 1994 and 2006. and of either party, is not enamored party to divided government prefers party polariza In short, government. for stale a cure considered once tion, only now seems to make the mate, worse. problem of the steps the federal some ample, to the in response took government financial crisis of 2007–08:

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est entitlement expansion since passage since passage est entitlement expansion of Medicare and Medicaid in 1965. publicans, it approved the far-reaching the far-reaching approved it publicans, campaign finance McCain-Feingold reform law. - in the regula increase “the biggest as of publiclytion since traded companies the Depression.” of 2002, which of 2002, • It - To 2004. and 2003, 2001, in cuts tax tax the largest theygether constituted cuts in American history. • Despite • It mest partisan margin in 50 years. In In mest partisan years. margin in 50 the Democrats re elections the 2006 the House and of both gained control and the country returned the Senate, Animositybe government. to divided the partiestween pres (and against the consider But ranident) unusually high. during accomplished Congress what • It change in federal the biggest edu Act, cation policy the most since 1965 and federal prescriptive education legislation ever enacted. • It eated margin in the House after in the margin 2000 the slim the only was election votes, nine those years: - - - - -

able events of 2008 and ’09 by ’09 by eventsof 2008 and able saying that the American politi NE COULD RESPOND TO THE REMARK-

The United States has responded to to The United responded has States the financial crisis much more aggres crisismuchthe financial more and Secretary of the Treasury Henry Treasury and Secretary of the Paulson. sup with its sivelyhas Europe, than posedly parliamentary effective more now banks are and our governments, Much Europe’s. in better shape than money has been repaid, TARP of the seem to be re and the auto companies Whether approves or not one covering. to describe it is hard of these policies, that initiated them as the government gridlocked.

cal system to is capableresponding of at fash- good but not so emergencies, in them prevent that policies ioning back the look at let’s So first place. the Bush W. years of the George first seven a was it seemed, Here, administration. electorateThe was for stalemate. recipe elections, divided 50-50 in presidential in vote popular losing the with Bush victory2000 and eking out a narrow was divid too, The Senate, in 2004. shifted and soon to ed 50-50 in 2001, the Democrats of when James Jeffords The Republican left the GOP. Vermont O

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The record of the Congress that that Congress of the The record • Four a newto create regu law a 2,300-page nths cy party when one change seizes control Whiteof the chambers House and both While of many branch. of the legislative it is known, well are these enactments them to indicateworth the recounting action: range of congressional • Most overhaul of the Americana profound extending coverage health care system, imposing ex to 30 million Americans; insurance on carri mandates tensive governments; and state employers, ers, im newcreating insurance exchanges; and fees, posing an array of new taxes, and extending drug benefits; penalties; making significant cuts in the Medicare program. latory financial structure for the entire services sector and to establish a mech failing banks “winding down” anism for to CQ According houses. and brokerage Street Wall the Dodd-Frank , Weekly defeating two vicious and expansionist defeating expansionist vicious and two constitutional totalitarian powers—our servedstructure seems to have us well. in 2009 rivals since that of any convened The 111th the historic of 1965–66. 89th partisan how demonstrates Congress polarization can dramatic poli produce

- - - - A few of these laws received biparti A fewlaws received these of Foreign and defense policy rarely and defense policy rarely Foreign comes up in discussions of gridlock. In- of gridlock. up in discussions comes most complained those who have deed, bitterly stalemate also about legislative criticized for Bush administration the and Congress too aggressively acting authority formuch too delegating to policy during the Foreign the executive. hardlyBush administration like looks launchedadministration The gridlock: (in each wars in Afghanistan and Iraq an approval), casewith congressional san support; passage of others relied relied of others passage san support; Republicanalmost entirely on votes. While might have of these policies some and excessivelybeen ill partisan, advised describewould Congresses the no one nothing.” “do them as that produced new policynounced a controversial on the established and wars,” “preventative facility detention equally controversial Con Meanwhile, at Guantánamo Bay. established the Department gress of the USA enacted Security, Homeland In overhauled the Foreign Act, Patriot and passed telligence Surveillance Act, of the use several on pieces of legislation military and the rights of commissions When at the sweep looks one detainees. policy foreign the course of over of U.S. the 20th century—especially piv- the in the United Statesotal role played

THE GRIDLOCK ILLUSION ------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY To be sure, over the past four years the past four over years be sure, To On top of this, the Obama admin this, On top of istration augmented the U.S. military the U.S. istration augmented the sec in Afghanistan, commitment “surge” American major ond war zone substantially It increased years. in recent American strikes suspect against drone ’10 were 2009 and In short, ed terrorists. intense partisan of years animosity but not of gridlock. immi has failed to pass any Congress jer omnibus, An gration legislation. ry-built climate change bill passed the House but died quietly in the Senate. health signature administration’s The nearlycare legislation failed for want of If the Per the Senate. in a 60th vote story ils-of-Pauline of the Affordable illustrates Act the difficultyCare of en it also points major legislation, acting to a shortcoming of the conventional is almost “Gridlock” gridlock narrative. always used to imply that an obstinate minority is frustrating the will of the 2010 Obamacare But in was majority. because danger grave opinion in public the If anything, was turning against it. that the feder health care battle shows is capableal government of taking dra even when public supportmatic action is shallow. gins and without the threat of a filibuster. of a the threat without gins and

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mayor and Elena Kagan, by wide mar by and Elena Kagan, mayor • By gays to serve allowed Congress openly It also confirmed two epealing in the military. Sonia Soto Supreme Court nominees, • Congress and pro federal student loan program, than $4.35 billion for the vided more “Race to the Obama administration’s to encourage innovation initiative Top” in elementary and secondary education. • After authorizingpassed legislation the Food to and Drug (FDA) Administration of and marketing the content regulate products. tobacco verse mix of tax cuts; an extension of an extension mix of tax cuts; verse grants to the benefits; unemployment and education, states for infrastructure, to encourage and measures health care; of cleanthe development energy. • Soon to package, passed another stimulus into the slowing pump $800 billion includedThe legislation a di economy. ter Reform and Consumer Protection Act Act Reform Protection Consumer and “toucheseveryabout just piece major regulatory of financial law of the 20th new two regulatory It created century.” other and these required and agencies, sets additional 250 to produce agencies the financial to govern of regulations sector.

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THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY reported, The York Times reported, New More important, the Supreme Court important, More has ordered the Environmental Protec the Environmental has ordered gas- greenhouse Agency tion regulate to has issued new the EPA In response, es. rules that limit carbon emissions dioxide This is just the industrial sources. from Giv beginning of its regulatory efforts. it en the structure of the Clean Air Act, unlikelyis willthis that particularly a be regulation. efficient or effective of form the proposal, the EPA But the worse - for congressio the incentives stronger fails to if Congress After all, nal action. into go will plan flawed EPA’s the act, As effect. governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Arnold governor Schwarzenegger curbto global agreement an signed cappingwarming certainby emissions, “California will not wait for declaring, our federal strong to take government global warming.” on action point” that Every “veto point” that block actioncan be used to is also an “opportunity be used point” that can to initiate or augment augment to initiate or tivity. tivity. government ac

- - - - -

HE STALEMATE/GRIDLOCK ARGUMENT HE STALEMATE/GRIDLOCK is misleading not onlyis misleading because it accomplishments, so many ignores

Critics overlook of the Constitution of the problem for example, Consider, but also because it focuses so intently on small partjust one policy, of domestic namely legis pieces of major of passage the fact that by creating multiple “veto multiple creating that by the fact our political system simultane points,” nor Congress Neither global warming. Whitethe taken steps to House has yet gov- state But carbon reduce emissions. northeast Nine acted. ernments have lation at the national level. Lost in this level. the national at lation the daily- of admin are decisions picture and state and local of judges, istrators, well of Congress as members as ficials, of in the quotidian business engaged reauthorizations, passing appropriations, Taken bills. reconciliation and budget might seem these decisions individually, but collectively they like small potatoes, can significantpolicy produce change. points of access ously multiple creates for and claimants. policy entrepreneurs that can be used “vetoEvery point” “opportuni to block is also an action that can be used to initiate or ty point” activity. augment government promising an accord ern states reached 10 by plant emissions power to reduce California 2006, In 2020. by percent T

THE GRIDLOCK ILLUSION ------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY How did affirmative action—highly affirmative did How Why has the means-tested Medicaid unpopular with the American with unpopular public— federal embedded in so many become at times and subtly, Slowly, programs? series a long of court de surreptitiously, legis complex and agency rules, cisions, the presump injected provisions lative into representation of proportional tion did How federal civil rights programs. the federal to set na come government for state mental insti- standards tional schools for the developmentally tutions, and prisons? nursing homes, disabled, Largely consent and litigation through the Department by negotiated decrees of Justice. suppos faster than the grown program edly Af Medicare program? sacrosanct while the former serves the poor, ter all, one of the benefits to the latter provides most potent political in Ameri forces to According the elderly. can politics, and Michael SparLawrence Brown er of the Columbia School of Public part is the of the explanation Health, of congressional incrementalism shrewd suchHenry as entrepreneurs Waxman who steadily federal added (D-Calif.), Medicaid reconcil mandates to budget - The com billsiation in the late 1980s. and federal of state bination funding and Brown Medicaid, over control and - - - - To take another example, how did how another example, take To Congress manage to pass controversial pass controversial to manage Congress guaranteeing everylegislation disabled educa appropriate public “free student a “Administration officials consistently officials “Administration Con that prefer much they would say they but . . write gress new . legislation clearlyare it in reserve holding as a prod lawmakers.” to reluctant “individualized with an complete tion,” “related of provision education plan,” each stu- that and a promise services,” “least in the be placed restric dent would that is answer The environment”? tive (rather suggesting courtsthe first, acted obliquely)- that students with disabili right a constitutional to ties might have state This forced education. an adequate on more to spend much governments which led them to special education, demand that the federal government complyto needed money the provide which led with this federal mandate, money both more to provide Congress which led federal regulation, more and federal more re and litigation to more which demands state to led quirements, This and so on. money, for even more separation vivid illustrationis a how of and federalism canof powers produce but a game of institutional not gridlock, expan- in a steady that results leapfrog programs. of government sion

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------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY The Welfare State Nobody Knows Nobody State Welfare The In Whenthe Securities and Exchange ally recognized. We fail to appreciate its appreciate fail to We allyrecognized. size state provides because our welfare (at programs so many benefits through “Incrementalism may not get much much not get “Incrementalism may but it does work.” press, political Christopherscientist (2008), Americanthe that argues - wel Howard is gener than larger state is much fare be paid to state treasuries—and unprec treasuries—and to state be paid sponsor advertising, on limits edented compa tobacco by and lobbying ships, arena, in one narrowly Having lost nies. in another. prevailed activists antitobacco was criticizedCommission - for regu another Street too laxly, Wall lating Eliot York’s New attorneystate general, into what he perceived stepped Spitzer, When the Obama ad as a policy void. too tolerantof ministration appeared An successor, Spitzer’s bonuses, AIG’s steps to aggressive took drew Cuomo, after In area area, expose the miscreants. of avenues multiple and competition the - pro the Constitution by created access vide opportunities to prevail for those who seek to expand the public sector. learned how have entrepreneurs Policy of our politicalto use these features sys As Representa tem to their advantage. success of the most one Waxman, tive put it, once ful of these entrepreneurs, - - - - -

Those looking for looking Those grid of evidence - Instead of promoting a “race to the to “race a of promoting Instead lock in Washington might point to Con Washington lock in in 1998 to pass legislation failure gress’s prod tobacco tax on imposing a large advertising. ucts and limiting tobacco Soon after bill that died in the Senate, state attorneys a general reached though, that companies settlement with tobacco included a $250 billion settlement—to - “cooper our post–New Deal bottom,” expan stimulated has federalism” ative Sparer note, had the effect of “prompting “prompting effect the of had Sparer note, during times expansions coverage good (the feds most of the bill) paid de and terring cutbacks times (ev even in bad ery or three two meant dollar state saved federal dollars lost).” effectThis is state. welfare the of sion respected The care. not limited to health has federalism Nathan scholar Richard - domi federalism’s “U.S. concluded that scope the effect expand nant to been has social sector.” and spending of the not get much press, but not get much press, but it does work,” says one congressman. mentalism may “Incrementalism may

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------Do Institutions . At the risk At of . THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY My guess is that these reformers would that these reformers My guess is evidence any that par have Do we ster-style parliamentary government one (at and Australia, found Britain, in at least) Canada. time, most Amer time convincing a hard have icans that the British form of government havedemocratic we than what more is Who Da Minister for Prime voted now. mem other than 34,000 vid Cameron Witneybers of his What constituency? vote ordinary people can’t mean, do you partyin primaries—you allowto intend party bosses to choose the nominees? held wheneverincumbent the Elections primeA minister finds it convenient? elite senior civil servicepowerful without elected representa by oversight much Significanttives? in that di movement revolt populist a provoke would rection Tea countrythis in the make would that tea. like weak well, look, Party liamentary bet any are governments I think, The answer, ter at governing? The best analysis of is a I know is no. edited volume Institution Brookings Weaver Kent political R. scientists by Rockman, and Bert A. than 60 years. Rather, reformers assume assume reformers Rather, 60 years. than naturally would we that develop the or three-party two- Westmin stable Government the in Matter? Capabilities and Abroad States United ------

- ical analysisYoung lies Henny to the ques famous response man’s T THE HEART OF ALL SERIOUS POLIT T THE HEART

tion “How’s your wife?”: “Compared to “Compared wife?”: your “How’s tion have we time or another one At what?” all been frustrated or even enraged by and complex irrationalities, the delays, were If we ities of our political system. in his right no one scratch, starting from Vermont, mind would Wyoming, give U.S. seats in the or Rhode Island two What is the is, The big question Senate. Most criticsalternative? seem to assume is parliamentarythat the answer govern - fac the unstable, of course, Not, ment. multiparty governments coalition tious, would Nor finds in Italyone or Israel. faction-rid- the insulated, they welcome where corrupt and system of Japan, den, a single party for has dominated more

least 77 separateleast federal means-tested the poor) to assistance provide programs ways (suchand in suchas loan indirect and tax credits, refundable guarantees, Our fragmented wel tax exemptions). fragmented our politi reflects state fare need we suggests, As Howard cal system. politicalpeculiar our how understand to a different systemtype has produced of simplynot repeating keep state, welfare the mistaken claim produced that it has a small one. A

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------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY If fundamental political such change Democrats used the fili In 2005, tablished within legislative bodies “in- bodies within legislative tablished government fluence capacity as at least of fusion or separation the do as much power.” and legislative executive as a shift to a parliamentary system is unlikely significant to produce benefits, evenand likelyless sup- public gain to us to focus then it behooves in port, institutional “second-tier the on stead equally that are import arrangements” ant and considerablymalleable. more a sin that today for example, Consider, a on “hold” senator can put a gle U.S. be or a piece of legislation nomination causethe Senate of so much conducts unanimous consent its business through of both senatorial Use holds agreements. and filibusters has escalatedrecent in often with serious consequences. years, Senate rules—even filibuster on those and cloture—can probably be changed majorityby obstructionism once vote too obviousbecomes and too unpopular. busters to blocknumber of Presi a This judicial nominees. dent Bush’s Republicanthe led majority - threat to “the nucle- en to pull the trigger on to limit filibusters that is, ar option,” the differences between regimes. “Sec - regimes. between the differences arrangements” institutional ond-tier such as electoral rules and norms es - - - - - First, most of the problems facing facing most of the problems First, be- tradeoffs” “direct are there Second, par- the contrast between Third, the United States today “are shared by by shared “are Statesthe United today In particu allindustrial democracies.” The frag - capabilities. institutional tween mented American“gen political system liamentary and separation-of-powers of only a small part” “captures systems oversimplifying the book’s careful anal careful oversimplifying the book’s editors’ of the three me note let ysis, which ring even truer to conclusions, was published when the book than day ago. 20 years with balancing budgets “problems lar, All most (and elected ubiquitous. are to reluctant are unelected) governments - Partic . . . pensioners. on losses impose arrangements do not ular institutional they cause problems; these governance and in societies in complex inherent are democratic government.” because erates a lot of policy innovation” from entrepreneurship “policy it promotes But this innovation disparate sources.” “tends to be at the piecemeal level of indi- - rathervidual programs than comprehen Unfortunately, sector-wide policies.” sive, better that are arrangements institutional reform are comprehensive at producing “likelyalso risks to create of policy insta and to overlook not well interests bility” within partyrepresented organizations.

THE GRIDLOCK ILLUSION - - - -

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Conventional arguments about gridabout arguments - Conventional lock our politicalnot only ignore sys capacity for policymajor change, tem’s but imprudently focus our attention nei changes that are constitutional on ther feasible our nor likely to address The gridlockmet- discontents. present that the fact over tends to gloss aphor surprisingour political are institutions but depressingly ly at innovation, good respon the many at coordinating bad is Nowhere taken on. have sibilities we than in our inability apparent more this considered outmoded. Legislation ex- outmoded. considered bills reconciliation budget empting the budget made filibusters has from rational and somewhat more process majoritarian—andObamathe allowed to health care proposal administration’s law. become olitical institutions Our political institutions good are surprisingly at innovation, but but at innovation, depressingly bad at bad at depressingly the many coordinating responsibilities we have taken on.

- - - - - There are many other ways Congress other waysmany Congress are There and the executive can alter second-tier can alter second-tier and the executive rules our capacity to increase to cope with the serious that con problems on judicial nominations. The result result The nominations. judicial on Democratsagreed compromise: was a only holds on nominees two to place if the Republicansnot change would number of Dem A the formal rules. insti advocated ocratic have senators tuting furtherthe filibuster limits on convenes Congress the 113th when Democrats and Repub this January. licansof victims the been alike have and the senatorial obstructionism, a As suffered. has reputation Senate’s rulesseemed that once consequence, be subject soon invulnerable might to revision. during the 1990s example, For us. front “pay- rules (for the so-called PAYGO reduce Congress helped as-you-go”) requiring by federalthe deficit budget new be any spending that or cuts tax by savings offsetby newrevenue or “Fast-track” elsewhere in the budget. helped temper paro have procedures The Base chialism in trade legislation. - Commis Realignment and Closure a mechanism to Congress gave sion unnecessaryreduce military spending - congres the many shutting down by sionallythe Pentagon bases protected

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-

is the Thomas P. P. Thomas is the THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY

n R. SHEP MELNICK at Boston College. at Boston O’Neill Jr. Professor of American Politics of American Politics Professor Jr. O’Neill ond-tier rules to focusond-tier - public at in order and long-term the aggregate on tention government of frenetic consequences rather, adjustment of a variety of adjustment sec of rather, activity.

- - - to bring taxing and spending into line. to bring into line. spending and taxing an ex done has Congress Since2000, and cre tax cuts cellent enacting job of But that has ating new entitlements. worse. fiscalour only made problems budgetaryImposing in a political pain to public opinion system as responsive Making as ours is extraordinarily hard. this crucial on task does not re progress but, systemic reform, institutional quire

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COVER STORY COVER IS DEMOCRACY WORTH IT?

I n the sobering aftermath of the Arab Spring, old questions about the pursuit of political freedom in the developing world have come into fresh focus. Are the risks too great? Is the time too soon?

LARRY DIAMOND on the case for democracy now

JOSHUA KUCERA on why some countries have little appetite for political freedom

NORWAN, MARIAM, AND NASIMA on their experience as women in Afghanistan

STEVE MCDONALD on Africa’s long spring

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 Lisboans celebrate the end of a half century of dictatorship in 1974. Portugal’s HENRI BUREAU / SYGMA /CORBIS Carnation Revolution, occurring at a time when there were only 39 democracies in the world, marked the start of the Third Wave of global democratization. WHY WAIT FOR DEMOCRACY?

One after another, arguments that non-Western countries are not “ready” for democracy have been upended by experience.

BY LARRY DIAMOND THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013

- - - - y y THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY These doubts about the suitabilit These doubts of democracy far forare peoples other colo- Western erathe of From new. from becamewhat into well domination nial of global Wave” Third “the as known democratization (which began with the writers in 1974), Revolution Portuguese policymakersand whether questioned could (and religions) er other cultures but also whether it sustain democracy, these to have interest West’s was in the other countries the basis of on governed mobilizemight that elections pas- the uneducatedof the sions and poorly in was there Moreover, “masses.” formed an empirical basis for this skepticism. democracyAlthough emerged had II era in a War during the post–World few developing countries such India, as and Botswana, Costa Rica, Sri Lanka, most of the newly decolonized states had fairly quickly settled into authoritari During the an patterns of governance. in ef countries many were, War, Cold chooseto becoming between forced fect, stability and economic development. stability development. and economic a much when they have Maybe someday, democracy will a be middle larger class, viable option. more safer, democracy the beyond could travel Theyonly not wheth questioned West.

------al argument has often mor HEN ARAB SOCIETIES ROSE UP AND SOCIETIES ROSE UP AND HEN ARAB fourtoppled during dictators Egypt, Yemen, 2011—in Tunisia,

LARRY DIAMOND

The cultur

phed into a second set of concerns. This This set of concerns. into a second phed is not the right time to be pushing for the complaint democracy in the region, Democratization in the Arab goes. world the fragile peace could endanger Israel and Arabbetween states such as Or it could threaten Egypt and Jordan. American security partnerships in the What Arab coun restive terror. war on the what and triesfocusingbe should on, political are should be encouraging, West

ter the autocrats’ fall, a wave of appre a wave fall, ter the autocrats’ in the pol many washed over hension icy intellectual and United elite in the the Middle and East it Europe, States, reservations warningsThe and were self. not Arabs are variations a theme: on no ex They have for democracy. ready to how know perience with it and don’t Islam is inclined toward make it work. and authoritarian intolerance, violence, radical will vote and Isla People values. the regimes and mist parties into power, ultimatelythat will theocrabe emerge - not democracies. cies or autocracies, and Libya—people around the world world the around and Libya—people af soon Yet the celebration. joined in

By W

WHY WAIT FOR DEMOCRACY?

- - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY al arguments against the al arguments The cultur prospects for democracyprospects in develop the most tenacious, were ing nations and West the and they came both from politicalin and intellectual leaders from Latin America the developing world. came into focus first because of its many left-wing populist Marxist insurgencies, and military coups in the movements, During most of the Cold ’70s. 1960s and conservative many scholars and War, writers in the United States dismissed the idea of establishing democracy in the as infeasible (or at least contraryregion since it would to American interests, ties to friendly an U.S. mean sacrificing Because of their autocrats). ticommunist absolutist historieslong of centralized, rule their experience deriving of from imperial ruleSpanish and or Portuguese the hierarchical and authoritarian tradi the Lat Church, of the Catholic tions in American said to lack countries were individual freedom, on the emphasis the willingness their citizens among to and the appreciation authority, question of pluralism and equality necessary to a right-wing, oftenmilitary autocracy a right-wing, a socialist or West the backed by frequently born of one-party state, the Soviet backed by violent revolution, China. and Union FREDRIK PERSSON / AP / CORBIS Illustrated ballots helped the illiterate in the first Illustrated ballots helped the illiterate in the first election historic presidential round of Egypt’s Mohammed Morsi, running under the last May. Freedom banner of the Muslim Brotherhood’s and Justice Party (bottom), prevailed in the June runoff with 52 percent of the vote.

WHY WAIT FOR DEMOCRACY? - - - -

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY y were not intended for y were Though the such cultural arguments this purpose, served the purposes well of autocrats If democ to justify their rule. looking racyforunsuitable was countries, their be expected leaders should these why hand were it? If a strong to introduce and develop order needed to deliver in And it. provide they would ment, Authoritarian of them did. some Asia, Tai rulers suchKai-shek as Chiang in in Hee Chung Park 1950–75), (r. wan and Lee Kuan 1961–79), South (r. Korea delivered 1959–90) in Singapore (r. Yew Under Mahathir rapid development. Malaysia this followed bin Mohamad, decades two than begin path for more for as did Indonesia most ning in 1981, af- decades in power three of Suharto’s Lee was the most outspoken ter 1967. of or- values” “Asian the in promoting and community authority, family, der, and what he saw as the indiscipline over “Asian values” and Islamic Islamic and values” “Asian were seen to culture over freedom, value order - over competi consensus the community tion, and over the individual. ------The Clash The k In his influential 1996 boo

sustain democracy. Similar arguments democracy. sustain Middle and the about Asia made were culture Islamic and values” “Asian East. freedom, over order value seen to were and the competition, over consensus They individual. the over community not only lacked the intrinsic suspicion of authority democracy that buoyed but practiced it was said, West, in the to authoritya deference answered that psychological cravings for the se “deep of words the in curity of dependency,” respected of the most one Lucian Pye, Elie scholars of Asian political cultures. a famous British historian of Kedourie, “the politi dismissed the Middle East, cal of the Arab world—which traditions as the political of Islam,” are traditions completely lacking understanding any “the organizing ideas of constitution of government.” al and representative tural distinctiveness of the West, “most “most West, of the tural distinctiveness indi pluralism, notably its Christianity, adding and the rule law,” of vidualism, com in its civilization,” “Western that “is mitment to liberal democratic values, valuable not because but it is universal because it is unique.” , the American political ofCivilizations, warned Samuelscientist Huntington [civili- “fundamental generallymore of the cul He stressed zational] divides.”

WHY WAIT FOR DEMOCRACY? ------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Two schoolsthe socialin of thought Two sciences fed into this debate. Those in the in Those fedsciences debate. this into suchthinkers by led modernizationschool, theo argued Seymouras MartinLipset, reticallystatistically showed and that poor unlikelycountries to sustain democ were the facili racy;acquire first if they would education, tating conditions—widespread an independent civil middlea large class, and liberal democratic values— society, The viable. then democracy be more would implication—at least as it was drawn out politicians and intellectuals some in theby even though it was and elsewhere, West argument—was that therenever Lipset’s sequence unfortunate, if necessary, a was countries to had First, to development: richgrow under authoritarian then rule; be able to sustain democracy. they would sons. After Brazil’s generals seized pow After Brazil’s sons. followinger in 1964 a chaotic periodof the country’s multiparty competition, and the miracle” “economic unfolding turbulentcomparison with the and po larizedArgentinaand Chile of politics (until their militaries intervened in 1973 also seemed to respectively) and 1976, the authoritarianunderscore advantage. Mao Zedong, who was responsible for was responsible who Zedong, Mao of innocent of millions of tens the deaths never while famine gripped Chinese, But glossed over.) was democratic India, compari unfavorable other were there - - - - -

weight globallyweight within Singa and - for hisbecause he delivered pore EE’S ARGUMENTS CARRIED GREAT CARRIED GREAT EE’S ARGUMENTS

loose morals of the West, asserting both West, moralsloose of the and that values different had that Asians for democracy. not ready they were people. More broadly, the success of the broadly, More people. many states led “miracle” East Asian ’70s to scholars during the 1960s and sing the praises of these regimes’ re

markably quick economic growth. The The markably quick growth. economic lack of popular sovereignty and politi the abuses of human cal accountability, rights and the rule of law—these were prices be paid in or that perhaps to had Looking at der to achieve development. political the chronic instability and rel performanceatively poor economic of countriessuch Philippinesthe as and tried that Argentina democracymake to - commen many during 1960s, the work tators concluded were that autocracies and that the better bet for development, was a necessarypolitical repression evil the way. along to be endured that had the the late 1950s through from Often, China and the comparison between ’80s, While - India was grow India was cited. China “Hindu rate of growth,” ing at the in improv was making dramatic progress (The fact ing education and health care. famines under suffered that China had L

WHY WAIT FOR DEMOCRACY?

- - - - - Political Science Quar Science - Political THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY article, “the limits of democratic “the limits of democratic article, The de cades, however, have proved the skeptics proved have however, cades, was writ as Huntington Even wrong. of a wave quoted above, ing the words democratic was gathering expansion himself which Huntington momentum, would document and analyze document would definitively ofthelastfour de velopments ical scientists of the time, Robert Dahl icaltime, of the scientists the dismissed and SamuelHuntington, for significantprospects democratic ex Cold poverty, chronic Given pansion. “the unrecep and competition, War tivity to democracy several of major spec- Huntington culturaltraditions,” ulated in a 1984 terly the world in development have well may works, two of the most eminent polit eminent the most of two works, been reached.” When the Third Wave of of Wave When the Third in the democracy began mid-1970s, democracy seemed to be where the world had been or where but had settled, the West not where the rest of the world was going.

------HEN THE THIRD WAVE OF DEMOC HEN THE THIRD WAVE racymid-1970s, the in began democracy seemed to be where

The seco The the world had been or where the West West the the world been or where had of the the rest but not where settled, had In a pair of widely noted world was going.

which insisted that dependencytheory, World poor be countrieswere Third trappedthem in a had West cause the was nd intellectual tradition de structural of economic condition and servitudependence (a modern form argued out, break To of imperialism). Gundertheorists Frank, such as Andre Waller and Immanuel Rodney, Walter body of a related stein (who spawned “world systemstheory”), peripheral countries power, needed to concentrate their natural over assert resourc control expel mul seize land, and redistribute es, corporations tinational expropriate or unfair terms renegotiate their holdings, busi sideline a domestic and of trade, ness class that was doing the bidding of and business inter governments foreign While (socialist) dictatorship was ests. not necessarily the political prescrip its critical analysis of this school, tion and the narratives tended to reinforce legitimize the claims of Marxist rev- olutionaryone-partyand movements dictatorships. W

WHY WAIT FOR DEMOCRACY?

------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY The lo mocracies that did come through the last through mocracies that did come that au shown decades have two intact thoritarianism confers no intrinsic de every Sin For advantage. velopmental gapore-style authoritarian economic more been many have there “miracle,” or stagnation—as instances of implosion and North Korea, Zimbabwe, in Zaire, from recently)(until Burma—resulting Numerous predatory authoritarian rule. that democracies do a shown studies have infant mortalitybetter job of reducing and and recent the environment, protecting sub-Saharanevidence from Africa (see, Steven economist Radelet’s for example, Emerging2010 book Africa: Sev How - ) Countriesenteen Way are Leading the gladesh. Other very poor countries, such Other very poor countries, gladesh. and Liberia, Sierra Leone, Timor, as East using the political of now institutions are democracy their econo as they rebuild Although mies and states after civil war. the world has been in a mild democratic - rever with 2006, about since recession sals concentrated disproportionately in lower-middle-income and low-income significanta democra of number - states, categoriescies in these income continue to function. andmiddle-incomewer- de These include several African countries, includeThese several African countries, and and Senegal, Benin, suchGhana, as Ban countries, Asian poorest of the one - - -

. In the the In . The Third Wave: Democratization Wave: Democratization Third The W cy sustainable at higher levels of is more number an unprecedented development, of poor countries democratic adopted forms during of government the 1980s sus- of them have and many ’90s, and tained democracy for a decade. over well just seven years later in his influential influential in his later just seven years book Century Twentieth in the Late the decade following his 1984 article, world expan the greatest witnessed as political democracy of sion in history, southern Europe from spread freedom then central and Latin America to Asia, By the then Africa. and eastern Europe, of every three states in five mid-1990s, democracies—a propor the world were day. or less to this that persists more tion truehile itremains thatdemocra For every Singapore-style For every Singapore-style economic authoritarian “miracle,” there have “miracle,” there have been many more instances of implosion or stagnation— as in Zaire, Zimbabwe, North Korea, and (until recently) Burma.

WHY WAIT FOR DEMOCRACY?

------itar THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY The ne Despite the persistence of author Despite the persistence racy is particularly striking in sub-Sa rounds of the five where haran Africa, surveys opinion Afrobarometer have a surprisinglyuncovered public robust democratic and economic progress, progress, democraticeconomic and chronicallyand even once Peru unstable democratically successive has seen three brisk deliver economic elected presidents In with declining growth poverty rates. Latin America of is the only region fact, inequality worldthe income has where in the last decade. decreased ianism under Hugo Chávez in Venezu in Chávez ianism under Hugo and the authoritarian of tendencies ela, left-wing in Boliv populist presidents the bigger and Nicaragua, Ecuador, ia, story in Latin America has been dem Chile and deepening. ocratic resilience stable liberal become have and Uruguay Brazil dramatic has made democracies, ofdemoc w popularembrace

is very much a global phenomenon. is very phenomenon. a global much variationwide is across there Although levels with low countriesregions, and of trust parties in in the and politicians Latin of Asia, democracies wealthier Europe, postcommunist and America, people virtually everywhere they say democracyprefer to authoritarianism. What to is not a retreat people want and accountable dictatorship but a more deeper democracy.

------F F racy or at least been em taken root has everybraced by cultural major group, with West not just the societies of the Most Cath traditions. their Protestant and democracies, olic countries now are Democracy has very at that. ones stable states, Buddhist thrived in a Hindu state, - predom many And and a Jewish state. - Tur such as inantly countries, Muslim and Indonesia, Senegal, Bangladesh, key, significant had now and mainly by have experiencepositive with democracy. - rates highest that the of econom shows Africa in ic growth the mid-1990s since generally demo- the in have occurred they Once achieved de cratic states. - con Taiwan South and Korea mocracy, growth. brisk economic tinued to record Whenthe G-20 was formed the end at organi ’90s out of the old G-8 of the major economies, zation of the world’s coun eight of the 10 emerging-market in democracies, tries that joined were Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, cludingIndia, and South Korea. unsuitable for these other cultures— theclaim thatdemocracy was inally, that their peoples did not value democ racy as those in the West did—has been racyWest as those in the a experienceby and by both invalidated, survey of public opinion profusion data for democracy desire the that showing democ urther theskeptics, refuting

WHY WAIT FOR DEMOCRACY?

- - - through is a senior fellow at the THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY

n It is m It is LARRY DIAMOND LARRY Hoover Institution and the Freeman Spogli and the Freeman Institution Hoover He is also Institute at Stanford University. coeditor of the Journal. of Democracy verse as Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. Iran. and Russia, Venezuela, as verse Overa been has decadelast the there slowly rising of democratic tide break due to corruption and abuse of power show But the data rulers. elected by and values are that popular attitudes and there not the principal problem, is little evidence to support the claim that postponing democracy of in favor rule will bet- things strongman make made The people of Burma have ter. that point repeatedly at the polls and and finally their rul the streets, on The ers seem to be listening to them. to democracybest way is for movements of the popular fate we and in the Arab world, freedom uch tooearly the know to minimizeshould not the continuing for movements democracy assault on and accountability in countries as di could follow reversals and more downs, democracy. - - - - - Thr commitment to democracy. In 2008, In 2008, democracy. to commitment of Africans percent of 70 an average surveyed 19 countries expressed across supportfor democracy alwaysas the But only 59 best form of government. their that they in had perceived percent country a full or almost full democracy, satisfied with were onlyand percent 49 democracy in their how was working finding simplyThis fit not does country. and deferen of a passive with the image freedom to exchange ready tial populace learned people have Africa, In forbread. experience bitter that without through democracy they neither free will have nor bread. dom ment and defense of all other rights. This ment and defense of all other rights. is strikingly the case in the Arab now sur the Arab Barometer where world, of of 80 percent veys that upward show the citizens of most countries name de mocracy as the best form of government, even if they do not define democracy in fully liberal and secular terms. world, majorities of the public have come majorities come of the public have world, to see that the right to choose and replace and fair free, in competitive, their leaders to the achieve is fundamental elections oughout mostofthenon-Western

WHY WAIT FOR DEMOCRACY? Enough votes: Kazakhstan’s president Nursultan Nazarbayev greets supporters YURI KOCHETKOV / EPA / CORBIS in 2011 after being reelected with 96 percent of the vote. VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM

Recent history in the countries of the former Soviet Union suggests that the appetite for freedom may not be as strong everywhere as we assume.

BY JOSHUA KUCERA

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013

------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Two leading scholars on democrati scholars on leading Two zation, Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Steven Levitsky Lucanand zation, A. of Harvard and the University of Way, written have that respectively, Toronto, for democ- (or hopes)” “expectations racy in the former Soviet have Union that it and overly optimistic,” “proved “time to stop thinking of these be may cases in terms to democ of transitions racy about the and to begin thinking specific theyactuallytypesregimes of of U.S. Yet that was in 2002. And are.” ficials still that the cling to the notion to democracy. “transition” a is in region When Secretary of State Hillary Clin Uzbekistan to 2011 in visit a paid ton one Islam Karimov, and its president, the plan of the harshest dictators on et and perhaps the least likely leader cy worldwide, produces annual measures annual produces cy worldwide, inof political civil freedoms and every only its data, to According country. of the ex-Soviettwo outside republics and Moldo of the Baltics—Georgia than they today better scores va—have did when they gained independence changed. not have Armenia’s 1991. in have states nine other the of scores The House, an American organization that House, democra of the advancement promotes backward. gone ------ITH ITS INSPIRING IMAGES OF CIT ITH ITS INSPIRING izens the Middle around East to demand streets taking to the

JOSHUA KUCERA

But a look to the east and north, to to the east and north, But a look

ward the former Soviet Union, provides provides the formerward Soviet Union, that democracya sobering reminder is after inevitablethe not result dictator- The 15 former republics Soviet ships fall. ousted in seen dictatorialhave regimes first distinct waves—the but two not one after the collapse of the Soviet in Union dozen a and the second more or 1991, later in the so-calledyears color revo autocrats down in that brought lutions Yet and Kyrgyzstan. Ukraine, Georgia, accrued benefits have to politicalno real they indeed, rightscivil and region; the in (The three limited than before. more are and Lith Latvia, Estonia, Baltic states, not absorbed into exceptions; are uania, all three the Soviet until 1940, Union democracies and mem become have Freedom Union.) bers of the European vision, it was impossible not to believe vision, tightlythat however autocrats try may messy and however to power, to hold on despo the end, in be, transitions may yieldwillthe to must people. tism the of an end to dictatorship, the Arab Spring dictatorship, an end to As rekindledfaith in democracy. our the dramatic events unfolded tele on

By W

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM

- - - JANE SWEENEY / JAI / CORBIS THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY who believe that a “strong leader” is is leader” “strong who believe that a preferable to a democratic government risen have significantly 20 the past over A survey 10 ex-Soviet of last year years. institute Russianthe research by states Putin pop Vladimir is even more man ular in other parts of the former Sovi “People Russia than in et Union itself. Integration found that Russian strong Not only has democracy failed in most countries of the former Soviet Union, but people there do not particularly regret it.

- - Evidence, however, is mounting that is mounting that however, Evidence, in the region to move anywhere close anywhere to move to in the region a State Department official democracy, “President the triptold reporters on that Karimov that he wants to commented liberalization on de- and progress make and he said that he wants mocratization, a legacyto leave of that for his—both Pressed his kids and his grandchildren.” the official reporter, an incredulous by I do believe him.” “Yeah. added, onlynot democracy has in most failed countries of the former Soviet Union, do not particubut that people there Surveys Re the Pew larly by it. regret Project Global Attitudes Center’s search of found that the percentages have Ukrainiansand Russians, Lithuanians, Kazakhstan’s domed presidential palace in Astana is flanked by golden office towers. domed presidential palace in Astana is flanked Kazakhstan’s new capital in 1997. on a monumental scale after becoming Kazakhstan’s The city has been rebuilt

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM ------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Yet Kazakhstan is prospering and Kazakhstan and is prospering Yet ern expat who has worked throughout throughout ernworked has who expat KazakhstanCentral that me told Asia you where is the only in the region place cost entrées where can to a restaurant go dollars and be surround five than more One of other expats. not locals, ed by hap 2010, in Kazakhstan, my visits to a bout of horrificpened to coincide with ethnic Kyrgyzethnic violence between and Uzbeks in southern Kyrgyzstan. mostly Uzbeks, Several people, hundred When the sub I broached killed. were rule with Kazakhs, ject of Nazarbayev’s and over. the same thing over I heard Afterabout cronyism complaints some my interlocutors would and corruption, not Kyrgyzstan.” “But we’re at least add, the poll around opinion conducted An of Kasame time found that 39 percent zakhs blamed the violence in Kyrgyz while “low of living,” a standard stan on “the authori attributed 38 percent it to The same poll that found weakness.” ties’ only of Kazakhs seven percent opposed amend recently passed constitutional rule ments that cemented Nazarbayev’s yev won 96 percent of the vote. the vote. of 96 percent won yev middle a is building and class, stable, while Kyrgyzstan is chronically mired the big at least in Kazakhs, in chaos. can mallsnice at afford shop and cities, West One Turkey. in beach vacations ------The divergent trajectories of two trajectoriesThe divergent of two is still ruled meanwhile, Kazakhstan, want a strong hand, stability, growth, growth, stability, hand, a strong want institute’s the explained and prosperity,” Sergei Moroz. director, neighboring countries in CentralAsia, illus are Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, early In the days of indepen trative. Kyrgyzstan was widely described dence, - gen had It “islanddemocracy.” of an as an uinely political parties, competitive and a parliament press, combative open, not a rub that was popularly elected, then Talbott, Strobe 1993, In ber stamp. to envoy special Bill Clinton’s President called the new post-Soviet countries, true Jefferso- “a president Kyrgyzstan’s Kyrgyzstan’s while And nian democrat.” their ups and downs had politics have it still has the most open gov since then, instance, For ernment in Central Asia. in 2010 promulgated the constitution a established a parliamentary system, the strongman departure from marked model that is ubiquitous in the region. boss Party the same ex–Communist by Nursultan in 1991, who was in control He has systematically elim Nazarbayev. and politicalinated any competition In cult of personality. built an extensive in 2011, election, the last presidential him endorsed opponents token his three Nazarba for him. said he voted and one

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM

- - - - KEVIN LAMARQUE / REUTERS / CORBIS THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY tion, he realized that “it was maybe he realized 25 that tion, and I knew all of them—they people, and other DRL,” for NDI, allworked organi democracy-promotion Western referring to the National said, he zations, Democratic Institute and the State De Hu of Democracy, partment’s Bureau The of suchranks and Labor. man Rights, been shrinking have in the region groups me about observingme about a rally in support of The Zhovtis shortly after his sentencing. not wanting carefully, official approached be partto appear to of the event and give to the inevitable government credence claims- that it was organized foreign by to the demonstra got But when he ers.

- - In 2009, Kazakh- human rights advo In 2009, into the future, giving him the title the title him giving the future, into “Leader the Nation.” of testified who had Zhovtis, Yevgeny cate Congress U.S. severalthe before times towardabout his country’s lack of progress - dispro a to sentenced was democracy, portionately prison long term following manslaugh for vehicular a conviction ofire The harsh sentence drew the ter. the world, around human rights groups which argued that its severity was relat in Yet political activities. ed to Zhovtis’s Kazakhstanappear to his plight did not Western a One official at anyone. move organization tolddemocracy-promotion President George W. Bush hailed Georgia as a “beacon of liberty.” Bush hailed Georgia President George W. In Tbilisi with President Mikheil Saakashvili in 2005, In Tbilisi with President Mikheil Saakashvili in 2005,

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM

- - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY O WHAT HAPPENED? WHY HAS DE WHY HAS HAPPENED? O WHAT mocracy- pur any to gain failed chaseformer in the Soviet Union? But some explanations are unique to are explanations But some ty’s monopoly on power feeds into the monopoly power ty’s on formerthe in belief Sovi widespread - hand strong et countries that a leader’s Meanwhile, grow. to needed is what is India, power, the other major regional breed autocrats. autocrats. breed All countriesthe forthe of - region. the mer Soviet close maintain Union ties sometimes to Russia (often willingly, neither China, increasingly, not) and, of which to help the cause do much of eco- China’s In particular, democracy. coun- poor inspired has success nomic least those not tries the world, around northernits western across and just the fact And in Central Asia. borders that Beijing has achieved such success Par while maintaining the Communist is a democracy—and not done has Political scientists have identified a a identified scientists have Political Some possible explanations. number of levLow region: specific to the not are mean development els of economic focused eco on more that people are while countries that do issues, nomic onlythe but on economically, succeed and gas or other natu of oil strength Kazakhstan, Russia, (e.g., ral resources tend to Turkmenistan), and Azerbaijan, S

- - -

And Central Asia is not unique in in Centralunique not is Asia And n 2010, disillusioned n 2010, disillusioned for years. Some simply have closed their for years. shifted have while others operations, rightstheir focus consumer to oth and the day-to-day relevant to er issues more concluding Centralconcerns of Asians, in theground the at least for now, that, region is simply fertile not region for democracy. the former Soviet world. In 2010, disil In 2010, the former Soviet world. 2004 Orange with the lusioned Revolu ushered to have that was supposed tion Ukrainians back voted in democracy, very the Yanukovych, into office Viktor apparatchik whose attempt to steal the earlier the six years sparked election had and Armenia, In Belarus, “revolution.” pro-democracy movements Azerbaijan, and traction, gain any to failed have autocrats as ever. seem as entrenched the election six years the election six years earlier had sparked the Orange Revolution. whose attempt to steal to steal whose attempt the very apparatchik the very apparatchik office Viktor Yanukovych, Yanukovych, Viktor office Ukrainians voted back intoUkrainians voted I

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM - - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY In each of these countries, the dicta- In each of these countries, haps most post-Soviethaps most peoples outside the concept engage states, the Baltic of democracy as they embraced much a mostly before—as emp communism ty ideological framework to facilitate to the authoritydeference of power and a systemnot as of formal in state, the that can stitutions effectivelyrepresent and make governance interests people’s servingin successful more people.” the Roberts furtherobserves “if many that Americans saw in the end of the Cold per the victory of American ideals, War of history,’ ‘end Fukuyama’s [Francis] most former Soviet citizens viewed it sign a or ideology,’ of ‘end an as more essentially grandthat are - ideals incom of life.” patible with the realities parthis done has discredit to too, tor, to the “alien painting it as democracy, and identity, tradition, country’s history, or security foreign funded by services, geopolitical Western and U.S. driven by political sci interests,” and economic Finkel YitzhakEvgeny entists and M. in And article. Brudnyrecent a in wrote the ruler has taken aggres every case, democratic steps to nip movements sive and Central Asia specialist at George CentralGeorge and at specialist Asia Elliott School University’s Washington writes that Affairs, of International per and citizensKazakhstan, of “most

------Some scholars advance cultural Some cultural scholars advance Citizens of the former Soviet states “China is a model to be copied—In “China is a model explanations for the region’s lack of lack of for region’s explanations the dominant The in democracy. interest of the former Sovietreligions lands are both Orthodox Christianity and Islam, of which cultivate values not conducive the In this argument goes. to democracy, writes former Geor case Orthodoxy, of dia is just a basket case,” said Stephen a basket case,” dia is just a historian specializes who in Kotkin, Central Asia’s the former Soviet world. and that China is rising, know leaders one that its model will be the dominant he said in an interview. in the region, thority, discouragement of dissent and discouragement thority, discouragement of innova initiative, [and] submissive and social change, tion collectivism rather than individualism.” Es ideologyalso suffer from fatigue. pecially periphery the on of the former was communism where Soviet Union, experienced as a reform imposed from see today people many capital, distant a as a foreign democracy in similar terms, ideology little to do with their that has an anthropologist Sean Roberts, lives. those values include “submission to au “submission those values include gian government official Irakli Chkonia, Irakli Chkonia, official gian government nearly crush the to relieve much as povertying its of under which many citizens suffer.

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM

-

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY But “democracy” was never was the quite “democracy” But the collapseBefore of the Soviet Union, Georgia was notorious as its Georgia was notorious as its Union, After indepen- most corrupt republic. The failed to improve. things dence, Shevardnadze of Edward government so corruptwas when the noted that right word to describeto Saakashvilirightwhat word His success was trying to implement. better thought are while undeniable, es, modernization or toward of as progress youth Saakashvili’s governance. good fluency in (he became at 36), president - “de rhetoricaland of embrace English, cleverlymocracy” disguised what was in of the version enlightened effect a more parts in many model favored strongman of the former Soviet Union. for the United States was reciprocated: forStates United the reciprocated: was the visited Bush W. George President countryfamouslyand 2005 in called a it “beacon of liberty.” The Arab Spring was seen Spring was The Arab more as a dangerous and outbreak of chaos Islamist extremism than than Islamist extremism of an inspiring outburst people power.

------

Fear of democracy not been per se has Fear F DEMOCRACY CAN HAVE ANY CLAIM TO ANY CLAIM TO F DEMOCRACY CAN HAVE its success in the former Soviet Union, whose 2003 Rose casebest Georgia, is in the bud by restricting independent independent restricting bud by in the trying to opposition, muzzling media, and using state re Internet, censor the dic The to buy political support. sources to the color reacted region tators of the de Western kicking out by revolutions organizations theymocracy-promotion for orches responsible believed were trating those events. West To a driving in the region. force ern audiences the Arab Spring and color like inspir looked have may revolutions but they ing outbursts people power, of very read the leaders, by differentlywere former of the of the citizens, and many Arab the Spring There, Sovietcountries. as the beginning more was seen from and Islamist ex chaos of an outbreak too, revolutions, The color tremism. people in neigh many failed to inspire boring states—the events in Ukraine were in particular, and Kyrgyzstan, primarilyseen eventsas weakened that those countries.

Revolution, led by the U.S.-educated the U.S.-educated led by Revolution, dramatic brought Mikheil Saakashvili, sharpa and reforms geopolitical turn affection Saakashvili’s West. the toward I

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM - - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Meanwhile, according to Freedom Freedom to according Meanwhile, While in the reforms succeeded ernment protests and shut down a ma and shut down ernment protests jor opposition-friendly television net to damage “serious events that did work, of champion a as reputation Georgia’s Watch Human Rights human rights,” said in a report analyzingthe crack the reforms failed Furthermore, down. the sort a po create of to oversight of lice department be expected would that and other parts of the in a democracy, Of justice system unreformed. remained 99 for example, cases to court, brought In other in convictions. resulted percent about were reforms Saakashvili’s words, of the state, the power strengthening not democracy. of civil and political measures House, 2003 rights in Georgia flatlined from do those things because there was no was because things do those there Light said with,” to bargain he had one “Institutional change in an interview. Saakashviliof the kind implemented a in stakeholders more involve would fully democracy.” functioning out corruption and improving rooting it did so the performance of the police, into the force at the cost of remaking to a politicizedresponsible institution The fruit of that Saakashvili personally. when politicization was visible in 2007, up anti-gov the police violently broke ------This was Saakashvili’s greatest greatest This was Saakashvili’s foreign-affairs foreign-affairs writer Robert Kaplan imagine couldn’t he in 2000, visited the pervasivevenality ever weed being “Corruption is deeply root ed out: ulti ed—perhaps the most corrosive It communism. of mate consequence after at high levelswill long continue But Saakashvi death.” Shevardnadze’s and he undertook so fatalistic, li wasn’t to reform the po an ambitious project of the most corrupt then one in lice, In a massive in the country. stitutions police he laid off 16,000 housecleaning, He also dramatically restruc- officers. bureaucracy the police and raised tured By allac reformsworked: The salaries. far less cor- Georgian police are counts, In 2010, rupt than they used to be. now the international corruption watchdog foundInternational that Transparency believedGeorgians of that percent 78 corruption in overall decreased had highest years—the the previous three (And for what world. in the such figure prediction, despite Kaplan’s worth, it’s Shevardnadze is still alive.) far But the reforms were achievement. even have couldn’t and democratic, from to according a democracy, in taken place Toronto a University of Matthew Light, criminologist who has studied Georgia’s “was Saakashvili able to police reform.

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM

------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Ivanishvili had warnedIvanishvili had his supporters Georgian people make decisions by ma by Georgian people make decisions jority,” he said. “That’swe of course what he said. jority,” ment threw up substantial roadblocks. up substantial roadblocks. ment threw It stripped of his Georgian Ivanishvili citizenship (after of living several years French also acquired he had in Paris, levied extraordinary - mul citizenship), on his partytimillion-dollar fines for and ha campaign finance violations, rassed and intimidated his supporters. deep Ivanishvili’s however, In the end, pockets Dream over helped Georgia While Georgians these obstacles. come in corruption drop the pleased by were that administration, under Saakashvili’s over discontent their by outweighed was to raiseliving standards. its failure for the incumbent president to be ready even and sympa to steal the election, Saakashhow - thetic outsiders wondered vili—who holds an outsized impression in Georgian his of himself and his role but he gracious tory—would take a loss, “Therevery are deep ly defeat. accepted we believe and us, between differences that their views extremely wrong, are way—the democracythis but in works which Saakashvili’s partywhich a truly Saakashvili’s faced When billionaire opponent. credible formedIvanishvili Bidzina businessman politicala party called Dream Georgia govern Saakashvili’s to vie for power, ------The contradictions of Georgia’s de of Georgia’s The contradictions “I don’t think they were lying think they were when “I don’t mocracy were on full during on display mocracy the were in first the parliamentary2012 election, vili and his allies. The president gave “lip gave The president vili and his allies. and he believed it service to democracy, the pri wasn’t it just but level, some on the benign interpretation. That’s ority. genuinelyThe less benign was that he saw the model for Georgia as authori- tarian capitalist like [that development in] Singapore.” failure,” Light said, referring Saakashto - said, Light failure,” to ’10 (but did tick’10 slightly up thereaf to organizationThe bluntly concludes, ter). is not an electoral“Georgia democra that given That is hardly surprising, cy.” Saakashvili has frequentlycited author itarian Singapore as a model (as does “Singapore Nazarbayev). Kazakhstan’s [Saakash but that - for has a lot going it, Light said. vili] says that is revealing,” or Sweden, Switzerland, say “He doesn’t says he Singa or the U.S.; or Canada, was not democratic It principles pore.” police focus on Georgia’s inspired that by largelyThat was motivated reform. fear of Russia and his wor Saakashvili’s ry not that a dysfunctional state would be able to defend itself against its super enemy to the north. power but they said they wanted a democracy, they the brink saw Georgia as on of state

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM

------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY stark example. President Nazarba - President example. stark has shrewdlyyev developed what AZAKHSTAN PROVIDES AN ESPECIALLY AN ESPECIALLY PROVIDES AZAKHSTAN The gambit worked, and Kazakhstan worked, The gambit enon can of enon in the emergence be seen for in the “democracies” several ersatz varying with degrees mer Soviet Union, policy, foreign “multivectored” callshe a tryingwith relations good maintain to too depen so as to not be powers many Ties with the United Russia. dent on de States depend to some Europe and so even while being democratic, on gree Ka a democracy, resembles it in no way zakhstan efforts makes great to pretend The country’s to the world that it is one. sever over - campaigneddiplomats hard, a turn for as chair be given it to al years, of the Organization for Security and a multination Cooperation in Europe, al body that is perhaps for best known OSCE Many monitoring. its election but as part of reservations, members had government its campaign Kazakhstan’s wide-ranging reform of laws promised political elections, to national relating and the news media. partyregistration, But the chair for was awarded 2010. only partiallythe reforms were imple and the experience of chairing mented, had to pretend it cared. This phenom This cared. it to pretend had of credibility. K - - - -

In the end, Saakashvili was trapped by In the end, his own rhetoric: Though he knew that rhetoric: his own what he was bring democracy wasn’t his legacy depended on ing to Georgia, that to be the case. outsiders perceiving be partic not while it may - Democracy, ularly such as the for relevant in places - the standard remains mer Soviet Union, or at “international community,” of the least the portion of it that wields the United Statesmost power—the and its So SaakashviliWestern and his allies. backers to carry had out a sort of mutual that Geor to pretend He had charade: democ toward “transitioning” gia was while the United States—which racy, Georgia with relations wanted good for a variety geopolitical of reasons— respect very much.” Peacefully handing handing Peacefully veryrespect much.” a rival to government of the reins over most demo was perhaps Saakashvili’s cratic move. Saakashvili had to had to Saakashvili pretend that Georgia was pretend that Georgia toward “transitioning” while the democracy, had to United States pretend it cared.

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM ------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY At a press conference, one member member one conference, a press At Ironically, when Kazakhstan held par Ironically, liamentary elections early last year, the liamentary early elections year, last sayingthe process critical, OSCE was principles fundamental meet not of “did Nazarbayev fired democraticelections.” back at the organization been he had say his country to have so eager chair, with an agen monitors “hired” ing that to observe not be invited da would his But in country’s future. in the elections put lobbyists Kazakhstan’s Washington, and a Ka the results, on face a brave of American zakhstan-funded group experts smaller up their own who made “Ka- observerpraised vote. the mission zakhstan has taken an important step forward a multiparty towards polity with said in its offi the group the election,” “The of the elec- conduct cial statement. while falling short respects some in tion, demonstrated a . . . standard’ ‘gold the of choice.” voter to widen commitment lauded what he calledof the group the to the elections. approach” “orchestrated “The opening of the political process disorder cannot in a chaotic, proceed an an Socor, Vladimir said lyfashion,” alyst Foundation, with the Jamestown think tank that recently Washington a signed a partnership with agreement - then-upcom for Kazakhstan’s prepare chairmanship. ing OSCE

------Wash The Meanwhile, the government’s PR PR the government’s Meanwhile, The Kazakhstanion government has the OSCE for a year seems not to have have not to seems forthe OSCE a year appe to whet Kazakhstanis’ much done national Studiesnational and a smaller organiza - the Institute for New Democracies, tion, to a task force a $290,000 grant to create tite for democracy. Indeed, 2010 was the 2010 Indeed, tite for democracy. very they named Nazarbayev their year Kazakhstan for life. president de facto recently celebratednew a hol national iday in his honor, First President’s Day, Day, First President’s his honor, in iday me opposition on assault amid a fresh dia and political figures. Shortly af efforts unabated. continue Nazarbayev ter the Arab Spring began, piece in published an op-ed touting Kazakhstan as a touting Kazakhstan Post as a ington “It formodel Middle Eastern countries. world democracies of the the great took “We he declared. centuries to develop,” a fully to become not going develare oped democracy overnight. But we have have we But democracyoped overnight. our big can on that we deliver proved Our to democracy is road ambitions. provide to intend we and irreversible, politicaland opportunities economic for our citizens.” lobbying Washington several retainer and it has firms, and public-relations - Washing contributed to prestigious it for example, 2009, In tanks. think ton for the Center Strategicgave and Inter

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM

- - The Wash- The THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Even in Kazakhstan, a few months in Kazakhstan, Even Could these developments in RussiaCould these developments after Nazarbayev bragged in country his about how Post ington meeting its by protests mass avoided riots broke needs, economic people’s violently in put down) out (and were citythe remote of Zhanaozen among been striking who had for workers oil sortpro This was a different of months. mounted by those in Moscow: test from classthe working rather than the edu- and demanding not politi cated elite, it sim- Yet cal rights but higher wages. ilarly fragility demonstrated the of the creasingly come to value a judiciary to value creasingly come that - a civilian-con all citizenstreats equally, and media, uncensored military, trolled blocks building elections—the honest of democracy. model. strongman and Kazakhstan be the first cracks in the antidemocracy the former façade of massive, unexpected The massive, unexpected that anti-Putin protests 2011 have erupted in late political changed Russia’s landscape. ------Russia is the wealthiest of the ex-Sothe Russiaof wealthiest the is - But could allBut could this be changing?In viet republics, with the largest middle with the largest viet republics, A substantial scholarly literature class. rising with in- has correlated incomes of political expectations liber creased and indeed it was Moscow’s alization, middle class that led the anti-Pu Over years, the past three tin protests. Russians in have surveys found, Pew’s are run. More than half now believe that half now than More run. are Pew to the according matters, voting a significant surveys, Center’s Research only a few ago. from years increase the Nazarbayev Center, an institute run institute an the Nazarbayev Center, “When the Kazakhstani by government. in neighboring as Kyr that happens, can the consequences be disas gyzstan, Reformsneed to be coordinated trous. above.” from - unexpected pro the massive, Russia, to tests that erupted in 2011 in reaction that he announcement Putin’s Vladimir termanother seek president as would changed the politicalhave landscape. and democra Putin handily, still won but the cy still seems a distant prospect, a countrydemonstrations—in an with illustrious history thousand-year of des that the relationship potism—suggested the Russianbetween and its government Russians seem to citizens has changed. things how in say demanding more be

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM - - is a freelance journalist is a freelance THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY n in Washington, D.C., who specializes in the D.C., Washington, in Caucasus and Central Asia. JOSHUA KUCERA cracy. Protests can’t do that, he said, said, he do that, can’t Protests cracy. drawing a parallel to the Arab Spring. pro with the regime can break “You he said. Egypt,” but then you’re tests, “Then what?” parliament bureau an effective and - - Soviet As fearful states? in as people that could of chaos, are region this by be outweighed soon fear day one in how say more to have their desire run? countriesis their that if are Even “ifthe case—a big is the easy ”—that the histo said Stephen Kotkin, part, rianformer specializing in the Soviet the work is he noted, harder, Far states. of a dem of building the institutions such responsible a as ocraticsociety,

VOTING AGAINST FREEDOM Afghan painter Hangama Amiri’s “Girl Under the Taliban” depicts a burqa, the full-body HANGAMA AMIRI covering that the militants forced women to wear. The artist fled to Canada with her family in 1996 when she was six years old. A 2010 visit to Afghanistan inspired her series The Wind-Up Dolls of Kabul. AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES

Three Afghan women talk about violence and shelter, the Taliban, and getting to vote.

BY NORWAN, MARIAM, AND NASIMA

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 ------– Darcy Courteau THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Then the Taliban took power when I power took Taliban Then the While they’ve writtenEn in here A WAY OF GOOD THINKING A WAY In the cold winter nights when I was a child and my father talked about the I and democracy, meaning of freedom reallynot could words, those understand the evenI thought theythough were names of my dreams. Six after years that, old. years 15 was democracy came with B-52 together ple who will never reconcile themselves ple who will never reconcile families, Children, funerals. to tents and but friendships—they’re all important, onlythe writers to be confined to refuse the looming Facing concerns. domestic next troops combat withdrawal of U.S. negotia of peace the prospect and year the writers were Taliban, with the tions of democ to talk about the future eager racytheir homeland. in their first lan of course, it is not, glish, nor even their second—among guage, Dari, they the other languages speak are secu their own For Urdu. and Pashto, and they use only their first names, rity, identifying omitted details. have with anger, hope, and sweet humor, the the humor, sweet and hope, anger, with and essayspoems tellstory the peo of a ------

NORWAN, MARIAM, AND NASIMA AND MARIAM, NORWAN,

The three women contribute regu contributewomen The three They all know refugee life, as part of life, refugee They all know

T’S ONE THING TO THEORIZE ABOUT THE THE TO THEORIZE ABOUT T’S ONE THING another to to democracy, transition Afghan women, three Here, it. live ban takeover, and the U.S.-led invasion invasion and the U.S.-led ban takeover, school kept of The out chaos 2001. in especiallygirls. children, for many reach low the of Afghanistanone has Today, at 43 per est literacy rates in the world, cent for males and less than 13 percent Trust survey A recent by for females. named Af- a legal news service, Law, countryghanistan the most dangerous In becoming in the world for women. who could writeeducated women their and Na Mariam, Norwan, stories, own sima really all but walked uphill have both ways to school. Writing larlyWomen’s to the Afghan and mag workshop an online Project, azine that publishes several dozen writ- I editor, as a volunteer and where, ers, Animated work. their first encountered an immense Afghan diaspora that grew followingSoviet1979 the (in invasion of every one in refugees two the 1980s, Tali the 1996 the world was Afghan), Norwan, Mariam, and Nasima, describe and Nasima, Mariam, Norwan, after of 30 years life in a country that, liberal. more to become has vowed war,

By I

AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES - HANGAMA AMIRI

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY bombs from the United States’ B-52s the United States’ from bombs as if forget, I still sounds that made can’t angry become had the mountains above Sometimes and suddenlycrashed down. fordeaf not could and hours went I the first time I ex For hear anything. perienced the fear of being dead. When periencedfearthe dead. being of blasted very of the bombs one close to I cried father my and hugged our house, - kets and bombs. When - the Mujahe kets and bombs. I’d grown up in war and had heard heard had and war in up grown I’d deen were fighting in Kabul, I understood fighting in Kabul, deen were but the which kind of rockets they shot, roc bombers following 9/11. We had a a had We followingbombers 9/11. old radio running dying on bat small, That listened to the news. and we teries, I learnedis how about the war against terrorism. “Raining Stones” by Hangama Amiri. In areas under their control, the Taliban still orders still orders their control, the Taliban “Raining Stones” by Hangama Amiri. In areas under executions of women accused of social crimes such as adultery. Some are stoned to death. as adultery. executions of women accused of social crimes such

AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES

- - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Other women understood they Other had women At that time, everybody a spe had time, that At cial definition for democracy. A woman woman A for democracy. cial definition imprisoned for killing her husband said that she killed him because he was not she could do it because and man, a good democracy had we in Afghanistan. now forced been had who Women civil rights. having their first child at into marriages, not want their daugh did 13—some age and started to too, ters to be child brides, women Other fight against oppression. burning themselves. by ended their lives they that they knew their rights, Now could not tolerate decisions the wrong went I Kabul, In in their family. men of to the hospital to talk with burned girls They all told me they did it and women. to re because was no other option there decision their family’s lease them from them or force to stop their education, into arranged marriage. is not for Afghans; it only belongs to it only to belongs foris not Afghans; people. Western After six years of being After six years of being locked in the house, I could go to school with a pen and paper in my school bag.

- -

I heartily welcomed democracy. I heartily democracy. welcomed I told myself to wait for end of the ed Afghan girl to a proud, educated educated ed Afghan girl to a proud, After achievement. golden woman—a I of being locked house, in the six years school to paper pen and a with go could however, school, At in my school bag. teachers said that democ my of some anybody that and racyword, bad a is who likes democracy Allah. is against In my class I learned that democracy With uneducat an from it I changed the war, and for the day to come that I to come and for the day the war, time nothing that At to school. could go importantwas forof out be me but to and to my stupid burqa, the blue cage, to school. go and looked at his eyes. He told me that told me that He his eyes. at and looked would and we over be would the war soon. experience freedom When one of the bombs of the bombs When one our very close to blasted and hugged house, I cried looked at my father and me that his eyes. He told be over the war would and we would experience experience and we would freedom soon.

AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES - -

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY In the car my brother said that both of In the car my brother us should vote for Mullahus should vote Abdul Salam a warlord during the Mujahe Rocketi, killed lot of in a time who had deen supported My brother nocent Afghans. him because Rocketi was paying $100 I was for him. voted who person each to thought that it is better and shocked, for Rocke than vote suicide to commit - us a camera gave so that My brother ti. of our ballots to a picture could take we for the right voted person. we’d show When to the polling and station I went my hands were the camera, took mom stood beside me shaking as if somebody I selected my favorite per- with a knife. could do something who I thought son for Afghans. er or not to vote. If they did not, then If they not, did not to vote. er or on out go to permission have I didn’t end of It was almost the Day. Election came and toldwhen my brother the day to vote!” going are “We and me, my mom My brother supported My brother supported the Rocketi because was paying former warlord person who $100 to each voted for him.

- - - A good telecommunications system telecommunications good A Anyone of speech. freedom had We parlia in the second to vote I got - Other families showed that if they they if that Othershowed families meant that people from a shopkeeper to a shopkeeper people from that meant a own could donkey with his man help a held companies Telephone mobile phone. called boys and young midnight specials, their girlfriends secretly and could not pity (I this misuse sleep until morning. TVchannel. or station radio a own could in September 2010. mentary election, of and none then, by died My father had familymy wheth- decided had members mote provinces such as Kandahar, Pakti such as Kandahar, mote provinces Families and Badghis. Bamyan, Logar, ya, needed educatedbelieved that we wom old Even especially doctors. women en, to literacy go could courses andwomen now, And a job outside the house. get could join the military. Afghan women of the energy generation.) our young of TV channels that all about 10 had We Most clips dance broadcasted music. and and girls boys of the young wanted to Arianabe singers! and Muzhda Sayed fled the country as who’d Jamalzada, and becamechildren pop stars abroad, concerts. to give returned could not make big changes, at least they at least big changes, not make could Some families no to barbarism. could say not educated their daugh- sent that were and re even in unsecured ters to schools,

AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES

- LUCIAN PERKINS / THE WASHINGTON POST LUCIAN PERKINS / THE WASHINGTON THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Afghans were disappointed in Karzai’s Afghans were misgovernment, and some thought that and some misgovernment, when Now, be better. would Taliban the money rained down from everywhere. everywhere. money rained from down his Karzai to But it went and his family, around people and lazy cabinet, corrupt, their turbans away andThrowing him. very they were wearing ties and suits, to supportsuccessful in pretending de mocracy while they filled their pockets - communi The international with money. highways, build to tymoney give would becausebut Afghanistanin forexample, contractor a transparency, no is there for money and use mud keep the would of concrete. instead the roads - - - - But my hope for having a demo Now I feel ashamed of myself Now when trusted Karzai and thought that We I remember that when the worldI remember in interna the because he was selected by cratic country was like a paper boat in the water. Hamid Karzaitroduced of as president government and the U.S. Afghanistan, and international community hugged while watching him and kissed him, TV I was clapping for him and him on him with tears. welcomed experience would we community, tional worldThe paid special atten big changes. and in Afghanistan, to the situation tion War has plagued Kabul since the Soviet invasion in 1979, leaving street after 1979, leaving street after has plagued Kabul since the Soviet invasion in War As shown in this 2001 photo, families still manage street lying in destruction. of homes. to live in the hollowed remains

AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES - - - - – Norwan THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Democracy is a way of thinking, good Democracy of thinking, is a way ing of women and children in the villag and children ing of women talking about of all, worst and then, es, the U.S. Taliban, with the making peace that their efforts showed government to bring democracy to Afghanistan were in so attractive looks a commercial—it it it, and buy go but if we the newspaper, still It is a puzzle for worth a penny. isn’t Afghans that the United States is think Tali with the ing about making peace feelI pity for Americansthose who ban. in losing their lives paid the high cost of for American in soldiers who died 9/11, and for Afghans who war, Afghanistan’s and Al Taliban died in wars against the Taliban with the Making peace Qaeda. And you! forgive we yes, means that, who can guarantee that Afghanistan will a nest of terrorists that not become will bring up other bin Ladens? whateverthat mean doesn’t It thinking. I think that do it. heartyour wants to do, As democracy with war. cannot together go Afghan people ourselves as we long don’t and change and freedom, for real work put the Quran as we as long in the high shelves respect of our houses and instead can we never ignorant as leaders, mullahs experience democracy in Afghanistan. Obama to bring democracy stabil - and the bomb with But ityto Afghanistan. -

But it was not only Afghanistan’s But it was not only Afghanistan’s We had presidential and parliamen presidential had We The past 12 years have not brought brought not have years 12 The past government that did not understand theunderstand not did that government Some people meaning of democracy. while word, it a bad really considered they expected the United States and other countries Afghanistan! to rebuild AfghanMany people really counted on changes to the lives of poor, ordinary poor, of the lives changes to still suffer at violence Women Afghans. as seven are as young Children home. the and they are begging, in the streets supporters of the house. people have problems with corrupt courts, corrupt with problems courts, have people to ask them and Taliban turn the to some help solve important their most issues. well and all went tary again, elections to media announcements. according Afghan president The a selected people par- a Afghanistan had forthemselves, again the world way, the by and, liament, congratulated our failures! the Taliban. the Taliban. It is still a puzzle for It is still a puzzle for Afghans that the United States is thinking about making peace with

AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES - - - -

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY After and Unit the United Nations ships. Finally, I was able to start I was able to a school Finally, ships. for immigrant with funds from children Committee, the International Rescue classesand I established some for young girls and women. ed States an Islamic re helped create to returned we public in Afghanistan, I started a job in a differ our country. organizationthat ent nongovernmental opportunitieshelps provide for rural to raise their income in order women Pakistani house to earn house money formy Pakistani to school rathergo to than children But every when I day carpets. weave I house, startedPakistani the sweep to I not only felt my life’s started cry. to hard pain—I feltall of our homeland’s family owned just one family owned just one burqa. I covered my body with a big shawl and I covered my face. mother-in-law to a doctor’s mother-in-law appointment, and my One day I went out One day I went out wearing a burqa. without my I had to accompany

------I migrated to Pakistan with my hus I migrated to Pakistan I was a teacher in a primary school, with in a primaryI was a teacher school, Taliban when the a university degree, Tal The captured Afghanistan in 1996. WHY AM I REMEMBERING AM I REMEMBERING WHY STORIES? SAD out to go allow women iban did not sick, unless theywere homes side their go to allowed not theythen and were they had Outside, doctor. a see to alone out went I day But one burqas. to wear to accom I had without wearing one. doctor’s a to mother-in-law my pany familymy and just owned appointment, with a my body I covered burqa. one a At my face. big shawl and I covered ran members into some we crossroads, with my away I looked Taliban. of the began beating me. Taliban but the eyes, defend no law to was my There as rights there I thought that an Afghan woman. choice other was not any for me but to my country. leave (I daughter my and sons, three band, a daughter, children, more two have now a and born Pakistan, in old, years eight Most Afghan refu old). years two son, and they carpets, made in Pakistan gees very to work had for 16 hours a day hard their and to cover money, to make rent They not af could daily huge expenses. to school. children to send their ford as a servantI decided to work in a

AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES

------– Mariam THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Some of our people face problems Some problems of our people face caused tolerated a lot of problems We tion. And there are thousands of simi thousands are there And tion. lar stories and girls, of Afghan women I am remember But why tales. gloomy stories suching talking sad am I while of democracy freedom? and of our Many because of security issues. mis ignorance, caused by are problems In city centers and illiteracy. conceptions, in remote but fewer, are the problems of violent number a huge are there areas My concern is attacks against women. our secu will destroy Taliban that the rity of their rights. and deprive women through more to work need I think we - to pro various and projects programs about law. vide awareness Today decades of war in our country. by construc gains in education, are there especially wom and civil rights, tion, scholarship opportuni are There en’s. and opportunities, employment ties, want the United Nations I don’t so on. Afghanistan Army to leave or the U.S. Please support provide for after2014. Afghanistan election in the upcoming and for the establishment of a good policy to bring and democracy peace in after being tortured for months. She after being tortured for months. prostitu into forced be to refused had our country. - - - - Today, women can go everywhere, can everywhere, go women Today, But even while I talk about democ- with permission from family. As an Af family. with permission from I think of all the crimes that I hear racy, exam For the newsabout on every day. ghan woman, I have the permission of I have ghan woman, outside of our alone my husband to go country to attend events and programs in a Muslim are We to my job. related of and it is a basic requirement country, am I this permission. to get our religion I Currently, very with my rights. happy am very with my life and my job. happy Sahar 15-year-old was Gul, there ple, in-laws of her the home from rescued and their awareness about their role and role about their awareness and their right the have to educa Women rights. According and legal support. work, tion, every cit constitution, to Afghanistan’s male old, izenyears is at least 18 who are We has the rightvote. to or female, evidence change. of a big According to Afghanistan’s Afghanistan’s According to citizen constitution, every 18 years who is at least has old, male or female, are We the right to vote. big change. evidence of a

AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Four months later, we heard on the on heard we later, months Four We arrived in our city. Frightened Frightened arrived our city. in We radio news that the tyrants been had Chil- country. It was a free pushed out. and both men to school, could go dren to jobs according could go and women Even to their experience and education. the sky knew that this country need- This night. that poured it and rain, ed peace of rainmessage and sign the was friendshipand and forpeople of the Afghanistan to flourish. people ran toward us to watch; they they us to watch; ranpeople toward living back from come knew had that we and their people, good were They in Iran. Their be OK. would that we wish was us, told their faces hearts burned to us; situation.” this from you “God will save When we put feet to our feet to our When we put ground, instead country’s leaves and of there being there were fruits on trees, tapes pieces of cassette were roughand CDs. There men with soiled faces, high turbans, long beards, and guns full of bullets. - - - - It was very hard for me to accept It was very for me to accept hard When put feet to our country’s we There Everywhere was dirt dust. and these laws because at that time I was a wishes as so many and had 16-year-old my ed I wanted to continue a woman. being leaves of there instead ground, pieces were there fruitsand trees, on were There cassetteof tapes and CDs. high tur faces, men with soiled rough or friendshipwas no sign of peace or hungrywas thirstyand War prosperity. to beg the streets sitting on children rather to school. than going E OF PEACE E OF A MESSAG but camp in Iran, bornI was in a refugee immigrantsas time familymy bad a had 2001 my father decided so in June there, Afghani us backto move to our country, all of should destroy we He said that stan. and notes, mementos, books, our photos, let don’t Taliban because the CDs, music He warned us these things. people have for hiding burqas have must women that means and being a woman their faces, rightshaving not choicesmake to goor rights or to have of expression. to school, the right just had to listen to men We and do what they wanted us to do. ucation to other countries and travel to learn cultures. about different and guns full of bul beards, long bans, Taliban soldiers. They were lets.

AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES

------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Now I am not a teacher. I work for for I work a teacher. am not I Now What I see in Afghanistan is not true Democracy can be realized in a soci es.” Sometimes feel I ex-hus - like my es.” I and in back me, of shadow band is a feel to kill like he wants me me or beat not as I always try car, by to travel again. Most because afraid. I am a pedestrian, painful forhe will is when I think me away. and take my son come an organization that supports fair elec serious face Elections challenges. tions. we to them, attention pay don’t If we achievementsthe 12 of will endanger lack of awareness Lack of security, years. and election people in villages, among rigging all problems. are republic coun The Islamic democracy. tries of de cannot components accept is not free there mocracy; for example, The and expression. of opinion dom of the people cannot culture understand because a lot of people speaking on it, against the govern TV are the radio and ment or public authority fans of or are political based of one group person one ethnic prejudice. on about knowledge ety people have where and people have “democracy,” the word experiencedcountryin the peace for sev of war in Afghani years But eral years. caused mentalityhave a backward stan whose name means “my hope and wish hope and “my name means whose - Now I am divorced, and I am liv- am I and divorced, am I Now The promised day arrived. I wanted to I wanted arrived. day The promised I married in 2003 and became a I married and became in 2003 a ing with my mother and my young son, son, ing with my mother and my young go to the voting site; it was my school site; to the voting go some But I faced I was a teacher. where He was a my husband. from problems of the can one - Qanooni, Yunus fan of but so I like Qanooni, I didn’t didates. I could participate process, the voting in “Fine and lied to my husband and said, Five Qanooni.” Yunus for I will vote OK, I was the polls the minutes before closed, a pen and with I got to vote. last person and I for Hamid Karzai, voted pleasure for my duty completing was so happy as an Afghan woman. human, one an, about 90 years old, crying de- from old, years 90 about an, I arrived to “My God, She said, light. card. her voting and kissed my wishes!” teacher, and when the government had had government the when and teacher, the next year, for president an election an old wom I saw card. voting a I got I saw an old woman, about I saw an old woman, from 90 years old, crying “My God, delight. She said, wishes!” I arrived to my voting card. and kissed her

AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES

n

– Nasima THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY If I asked some birds: “Soaring the in birds: If I asked some sky and not in a cage.” seawater.” “Clean Fishes of seas: and see the light of day “To The blind: and not always of see the dark sun, night.” “Hearing the beating of The deaf: heart and the sound of friends.” mother’s patriotthe say: would patriot, asked a If and I “I my beautiful country, love want to fall and in it and feel the roses not smell the plains and mountains, of war and blood.” the reek asked some children, children, some asked If I is democracy?” “What answer me: they would ball and follow the “To build kite, to play and snowmen in winter coming and wait for the of spring.”

- Finally, I want to share with you some of some with you I want to share Finally, If I asked students in schools: “To turn “To If I asked students in schools: our and color on of books the pages hands with pens.” If I asked street children, they would they would children, If I asked street “Going to school to be a doctor or say: engineer or manager.” If I asked a shoemaker on our street, he our street, If I asked a shoemaker on canI moment a warm “For say: would my frozen hands in winter.” If I asked a farmer, he would say: “To “To say: he would If I asked a farmer, land in the springplow and harvest in bread a slice of the summer and have say: she would If I asked a woman, “To say: she would If I asked a mother, them kindness.”foster and give children in people. Now it is not that easy for for easy that not is it Now people. in democracy. to accept people “To me: answer they would mocracy?” and to play follow the ball and kite, in winter and wait for build snowmen of spring.”the coming in winter.” “Having life without violence.” If I asked some children, “What is de children, some If I asked my search for the meaning of democracy:my search

AFGHANISTAN IN THREE VOICES Nelson Mandela, with his then-wife Winnie, waves to a crowd in 1990 on WALTER DHALDHLA / AFP / GETTY IMAGES the day after he was released from prison. He had been jailed for 27 years. In 1994 he was elected president of South Africa, a post he held for five years. AFRICA’S LONG SPRING

In a process almost unnoticed by the rest of the world, Africa has become significantly more democratic since the early 1990s. Its transition toward political freedom offers both inspiration and cautionary lessons.

BY STEVE McDONALD

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 - - -

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Some of the new leaders were pop Some of the new were leaders haps 24 million. Colonial rule Colonial in its was haps 24 million. and years in Rhodesia final Southwest but white minorities still clung Africa, Sey- The Comoros, tenaciouslyto power. Sahara Western and Djibouti, chelles, from to gain their independence yet had other many In masters. colonial their the exhilarating winds African nations, the through swept of change that had as they off their colo continent shook II been had War afterWorld nial yokes took “big as a myriad of men” stilled, either countryin power after country, arrangements with departing through rulerscolonial or in coups d’état. usually because they led the had ular, and now power fight against a colonial Cape Verde, and São Tomé and Príncipe. and Príncipe. Tomé and São Verde, Cape Southin Apartheid still reigned Africa, a vast blackvictimizing majority of per The exhilarating winds The exhilarating winds of change that had swept through the continent after World War II had II had War after World been stilled by 1970.

------DONALD c

ONG BEFORE IT CAME TO THE ARAB IT CAME TO THE ARAB ONG BEFORE spring through swept world, In 1990, sub-Saharan Africa. STEVE M STEVE

Many of the states making the tran of the states Many

Mozambique drafted its first multiparty, Mozambique draftedmultiparty, its first year The next democratic constitution. saw multiparty in what had elections Gabon, one-partybeen Benin, in states overthrow as the as well and Zambia, the subsequently, dictator and, of Mali’s Every succeed of newelection leaders. new brought steps forwarding year for the and Kenya, democracy—in Ghana, and in 1992, of the Congo Republic in subse the continent elsewhere on worldThe only paid atten quent years. when Southtion Africa joined the ranks of democratic in 1994. nations to democracy sition since suffered have weath have but just as many setbacks, as the storm today function and ered Certainly the multipartydemocracies. transition cannot be called complete, further much many than gone has it but The Africa I first came to recognize. Service Foreign officer as a young know It was a conti exists. in 1970 no longer in of colonialism nent still in the throes with wars of liberation being areas, some territories of fought in the Portuguese Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, Angola,

By L

AFRICA’S LONG SPRING - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY PIERRE GUILLAUD AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE / NEWSCOM da between 1971 and ’79, for example, forexample, ’79, and 1971 between da thousands of of killed hundreds Amin Often “enemies.” political and ethnic avertedthe former their powers colonial to preserve in order the horror from eyes did as France interests, their commercial where Centralthe in African Republic, where Gabon, and toleratedit Bokassa, it underwrote fraud of Pres the election ident Omar Bongo. Bokassa in the Central in the AfricanBokassa Republic Idi Amin, and later Obote, and Milton DuringUgan in his reign in Uganda. - - claimed the mantle of liberation leader. claimed leader. of liberation the mantle But even not rule who did those through little showed and intimidation violence for political pursuing in freedom interest up in corruption, Caught their people. they to close moved whatever demo in their cratic political remained space countries increasingly as their objectives keeping themselves in to one: narrowed and many Brutality was the rule, power. an African authority big man built his ruthlesslyfoundation of a the on effi notably Jean-Bédel police, cient secret Bokassa arranged his own coronation as emperor in 1976, attracting international attention. His bloody reign Bokassa arranged his own coronation as emperor in He was finally overthrown in 1979 by French led to rumors, since disproved, that he engaged in cannibalism. troops after Paris lost patience with its longtime client. After 10 years as dictator of the Central African Republic, Jean-Bédel Jean-Bédel After 10 years as dictator of the Central African Republic,

AFRICA’S LONG SPRING

- - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY If there was a pretense of democracy was a pretense If there ed on as an ally as ed on the Soviets against and it was rumored point, one At Chinese. that Zaire community in the diplomatic champagne French more consumed owned who Mobutu, itself. than France was chateausat least two in Europe, charterto - known Con supersonic the China for shopping tripscorde abroad. supporting cli a similar game, played and for recognition ents in exchange support for to displace their aspiration as a permanent member of the Taiwan Some big men— UN Security Council. Nkrumah in Ghana, such as Kwame and Julius Kenneth Kaunda in Zambia, bruas not - Tanzania—were in Nyerere the they but played others, tal as many and with the rest game along War Cold ran centrally of economies controlled that left their people socialism” “African 1958 to 1990—it dence—roughly from but democracy,” “dominant-party was that was only for a euphemism autoc Both the international community racy. and Africans support voiced for democ viewedmost but this racypromotion, The Organization as a charade. exercise founded in of African Unity (OAU), aid and mineral revenues for mineralhimself and aid revenues be count He could supporters. and his impoverished. duringthe first few decades indepen of - - - - -

The United States, for example, did for example, The United States, For the superpowers, Africa in the superpowers, the For not care that Mobutu SeseMobutu that care not Seko Zaire of the Democratic(now Republic of the his peo relentlessly oppressed Congo) ple during his long reign (1965–97) and ple during reign his long amounts of foreign off massive siphoned et Union vied forvied loyaltyAfricanthe of Union et sup aid and other providing states by and often ma to power used their port, The United States nipulate local politics. supported it thought would governments into the to move Sovietresist pressure The Soviets courted left column. “red” demanded their Both ist governments. support for pitched their battles clients’ In return, in the UN General Assembly. to turn a blind the superpowers agreed brutal and corrupt to their clients’ eye governance. 1970s was little more than a pawn in the than a pawn more was little 1970s United The and States Sovi War. Cold community that Mobutu’s community that Mobutu’s Zaire consumed more French champagne than France itself. At one point, it was At one point, it was rumored in the diplomatic

AFRICA’S LONG SPRING

- - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Africa’s frustrated in masses were Africa’s South deal the Africa broker helped had minority white that ended rule- in Rhode and it had 1978, in Zimbabwe) sia (now gradually South on loosened its hold which became independent Africa, west F.W. year, That same in 1990. Namibia Afrikaner lifted government de Klerk’s political pro-liberation par the ban on ties in South Africa and began releasing includ- of political prisoners, hundreds it in year, The next Mandela. ing Nelson virtually among augurated negotiations allparties in the country that ultimately an overhaulled to of the constitution first-everthe all-inclusive 1994, in and, the Soviet had Union By then, elections. De Klerk and Mikhail to its grave. gone Gorbachev enshrined to be forever were in history in to who gave as the leaders who saw the writing the on the masses, wall and chose self-preservation over trying power. to maintain unfettered spired by the demise of the Soviet of the Soviet the demise by spired and the rebirth of SouthUnion Africa, and calls for change began to reverber loudly more ate continent. the through newreluctance a facing The big men, to under- donors international among write and the their autocratic regimes of civil society growth unprecedented They began to respond. organizations, scheduled and began at least elections

------In HEN THE BERLIN WALL FELL IN FELL HEN THE BERLIN WALL 1989, the Cold War logic that War the Cold 1989, virtually guaranteed a foreign

fact, there had been a few hopeful signs. been a few had hopeful signs. there fact, patron to any leader willing sell leader to to any his patron were Changes crumbledUN vote with it. afoot in white-ruledalready South Af- almost unthinkable a development rica, countrysaw the who most observers, to onlyheaded for chaos and probably a race war of apocalyptic proportions.

1963, carried in its charter a sacrosanct 1963, African that no codicil vio could state late the sovereignty for of another any includingor even oppression reason, conti The of its citizens. the massacre not only inert remained leaders nent’s of even the most in the face but silent Rarely was an Af horrifying violations. rican big man criticized or challenged. only of this principleThe that I breach Tanzania of cameknow in 1972 when Oboteaided Milton in trying recap to de had the man who Uganda from ture That effort failed, Idi Amin. posed him, but it nevertheless caused dis- great 10th-anniversa comfort at the OAU’s ryAba- Addis in year next the summit attempted to be when both leaders ba, recognized and seated as the legitimate later, years Two of state of Uganda. head chairman. the OAU’s was named Amin W

AFRICA’S LONG SPRING ------

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY ITH ALL THE PRESSURE FOR THE ITH ALL THE PRESSURE FOR THE establishment of democracy is it really happen in Africa, Nowadays, the principle- of condi Nowadays, ing? Multiparty become have elections presidents with sitting commonplace, and stepping down losing sometimes tionality aid among established is well Millen government’s U.S. The donors. nium Challenge Corporation, estab- Corporation, Challenge nium dollarsof billions gives in 2004, lished but only countries to that com in aid, whichcorpo the policies,” “good mit to encour “ruling justly, ration defines as and investing freedom, aging economic mar That means enacting in people.” ket-oriented policies designed to open fight corrup to competition, economies busi and encourage transparent tion, governments In addition, ness dealings. health care in their citizens’ invest must and education. W The “big men” were not not were “big men” The give up easily, ready to the hoped that and they more would be West than in stability interested in true democracy. - - - - - From abroad, the old rulers a faced abroad, From - Aid was increas new kind of pressure: inglycertain meeting to tied standards. government U.S. by the The term used which meant that “conditionality,” was was dependent on of aid the extension such goals toward country’sa progress holding free as raising living standards, up op opening and fair elections, and - of democ face the institutional to show setting up racy writing by constitutions, and supposedlyjudiciaries, independent the Yet allowing multiparty elections. up eas to give ready not big men were put and they manipulated elections, ily, bought conventions, off constitutional and the opposition, off or intimidated of the verdicts just ignored sometimes be would West hoping the the voters, in stability interested than in truemore democracy. employment, portunities in education, first This approach and development. during crises appeared the economic of the 1980s with the structural adjust Bank and World the of ment programs pol the International Monetary Fund, icies that caused among near rebellion asked countries recipient as they were to implement austerity rival programs been have recently, more ing those that, and Italy by Spain, Greece, imposed on Union. the European

AFRICA’S LONG SPRING THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY MAP: ISTOCKPHOTO / CHART: MO IBRAHIM FOUNDATION MAP: ISTOCKPHOTO / CHART: IbrahimMo The years. recent in recession” “democratic perceptible a experienced has Africa regions, other Like rates countries along five broad dimensions: safety and rule of law; Index of African Governance Foundation’s opportunity; and human development. The 2012 editionparticipation and human rights; sustainable economic two categoriesin the first scores over the previous six years to declining note, pointing a discouraging sounded South Africa.for regional powerhouses Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, and

AFRICA’S LONG SPRING ------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY But electoral chicanery rarely hap American an or House, Freedom dowed with enormous oil wealth, also also enormouswith wealth, oil dowed ea are Most foreigners pass. a free gets with business. on to get ger without challenges from pens anymore - com international the and people the at the which occurred Coups, munity. the rate of about 20 a decade through less common. much now are 1990s, and only been have six since 2000, There - result in Guinea-Bissau, of those, one holding demo ed in the coup makers while political And vi cratic elections. olence occurs frequently—notably in Mali, South Sudan and Sudan, Somalia, easternthe and Democratic of Republic era coups of constant the Congo—the the African Strikingly, is over. d’état the organization that replaced Union, has changed the old 2002, in the OAU non-interference codicil organization’s mechanism review” “peer a created and It does democraticto monitor progress. not recognize that come governments a coup. through to power ganization political that monitors free lists 30 of 49 the world, around dom sub-Saharan African“free” countries as “Democracy In- In its free.” “partly or Intelligence the Economist dex 2011,” a way to accept the results. Nigeria, the Nigeria, results. the to accept a way en country, most populous continent’s ------

peacefully. In some cases, ruling political cases, some In peacefully. which often through sway hold parties, accepted have of presidents, a succession hap This has voters. of the the verdict Somalil Ghana, Mauritius, pened in São Benin, Verde, Cape Zambia, and, Senegal, Botswana, and Príncipe, Tomé has record The elsewhere. and Namibia, not been as inspiringcountries in such the Demo Kenya, Burundi, as Rwanda, Madagas cratic Republic of the Congo, In these Ethiopia. and Ivory Coast, car, ruling parties presidents and countries, still manipulate the political process. for example, Daniel arap Moi, Kenya’s calledfor multiparty 1992, in elections and every con since has been election a and intimidation, violence, But tested. African Kenya National victory Moi’s by party result Union the predictable were Be lost. when it until 2002, every time, strategic and economic cause of Kenya’s the importance overall and its stability, international community always found Coups, which occurred Coups, which occurred at the rate of about 20 the rate of about 20 at a decade through the 1990s, are much less common now.

AFRICA’S LONG SPRING - - - The Fastest Fastest The THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Charles Robertson, global chief econ Charles Robertson, forecast is correct, if Robertson’s Even sure off autocrats, as has been the as has been case in off autocrats, sure the But China. course, of and, Ethiopia in Capital, bank Renaissance investment its staff, by a study authored Billion: The Story Behind Econom- Africa’s Billion: growing argues that (2012), ic Revolution trans- health, in education, investment manufac and portationinfrastructure, - condu atmosphere an turingcreating is illiterate citizens Poor, to democracy. cive rising levels for autocrats; easy marks are already and education have income of public an increasingly activist created governments on that is putting pressure and transparent. to be responsive writes Capital, at Renaissance omist counts 31 African that his company and expects to see democracies today dozena than 2050, more new by ones energy-rich“with just a few autocratic, exporters enough left wealthy that are year, This to buy off their middle class.” “SouthAfrica will fewa join writes, he suchothers Mauritiusand Botswana as the keyabove $10,000 per capita GDP levelwhich above democracyno has ever died.” The to 2050 will not be easy. the road is that West in the wisdom conventional frame a constitutional put in place if we and a body of laws and regulations, work ------Lions on (2010) is one of two two of one is (2010) Africa’s strong economic growth adds adds growth economic strong Africa’s the Move: The ofProgress Potential and the Move: African Economies the business widelystudies from noted world to sub-Saha that draw attention - ran Africa region as the fastest-growing critics Many of the thesis in the world. and democracy growth that economic out that a strong hand in hand point go can take the pres economy sometimes to the case for long-term optimism. The the caseto for optimism. long-term McKinsey Global Institute’s Unit, which uses a different set of crite set which a different uses - Unit, “full” 21 African counts countries as ria, hybridre- or democracies “flawed” or earlieran In autocratic. as 23 and gimes, elec “the number of said that it report, has annually held tions years in recent 15 and 20 2000 between since increased; Af been held each year. have elections rican democracy flour appears to have has of elections holding and the ished but not all bal commonplace, become and fair’ ‘free being lots pass the test of been charades by held have and many Similarly, clingingregimes to power. on - infre more become have coups d’état govern failed although conflict, quent, rightshuman and remain abuses ments, every steps forward two For widespread. has been at there the past 20 years over but the overall trend step back, least one appears to be in the right direction.”

AFRICA’S LONG SPRING

- - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY RUE DEMOCRACY DEPENDS ON A SET RUE DEMOCRACY DEPENDS ON A SET a of underlying understandings, a defini sense of interdependence,

were especially embittered by threats to threats especially by were embittered Kept under of life. pastoralisttheir way the Malian military by control for years, - back into re surged these tribal groups bellion after arms men and came pour ing into the region from the war against the war against from region ing into the - Muammar al-Qadda dictator Libyan increasing taking Malian The army, fi. early year, last Touré overthrew losses, and other Is and since then Al Qaeda exploited have groups lamist extremist the instability to establish an Islamist it seems Now in the north. stronghold very will force likely that a multinational be assembled to drive the Islamists out. tion of a national community, or, in brief, in brief, or, community, of a national tion With longtime my “vision.” common a and Wolpe colleague the late Howard Africain years spent try have I - others, suchjust build to ing understandings. physicallyThis means bringing together - po all ethnic, representing keyleaders groups and religious geographic, litical, trustto rebuild and ordinary communi lost in times of strife. cations that were theThis sort helps engender of contact without whichsense of interdependence theycannot collaborate sustained a on and development, recovery, the on basis T ------Let’s not forget the example of Mali, Let’s of Mali, not forget the example which not very was lauded as ago long A of democracythe paragon in Africa. and newa to led coup 1991 constitution The coup multiparty state. a democratic, won Touré, Toumani Amadou leader, and the in 2002, as president election and fair elec free brought ensuing years and get the structures and institutions structures the institutions and and get democracy then willfol right, of state in the But that view is grounded low. every that people in assumption coun try unity a sense of national and share not been that has In Africa, connection. The 1884– casethe very until recently. 85 Berlin- the conti divided Conference boundariesnent into entities whose cut natural religious, regional, ethnic, across It creat lines. and geographic resource, ed countries ethnic conflict gripped by which, for resources, and competition of democraticdespite the beginnings of many still poison in Africa, culture these states. and alltions the other trappings of con What they did democracy. stitutional not bring that dealt was a government distriwith the inequality of resource pri and opportunity, education, bution, tribesmen in Tuareg marily for nomadic who felt culturally and po the north, litically marginalized the dominant by Tuareg The Mandé society of the south.

AFRICA’S LONG SPRING - - -

n is director of the Wilson of the is director THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY DONALD Throughout Africa, the young, educat young, the Africa, Throughout STEVE Mc Center’s Africa Program and the Center’s and the Center’s Africa Program Center’s Leadership on and Building State Project He has served and as a diplomat Capacity. and development of nonprofit a leader organizations peace-building focused on Africa than 40 years. for more ed, and technology-savvy Africans who ed, up the majority make now of the conti demanding billion people are one nent’s the opportunities, Economic freedom. capital, of outside investment flow free intra-Africa drop to the move barriers to a globe united by trade and commerce, mean other forces and many technology, in Africa future that democracy’s is about The four decades that as safe as it can be. spent witnessing this transition I have some been filled with excitement, have frustration and horror, and times danger ful- and inspiration end, the in but anger, fillment as Africa takes its rightful place in the global village. back. Wade lost a runoff election in a lost a runoff in election Wade back. the accept to forced was and landslide emblematic This is of the people. verdict of the new Africa.

- - - - -

Democracy in Africa is fragile. Single DemocracyAfricain fragile. is sliding is common. There will be more will be more There sliding is common. democracy But newhas a re setbacks. silience and undeniable momentum. when Senegalese president LastApril, onto way his forced Wade Abdoulaye the ballot term in a bid for that a third Sen- seemed to forbid, the constitution and in protest streets to the egalese took pushed community international the parties and back still tend to dominate democratization of their countries. democratizationcountries. their of accomplish other among who, Wolpe, servedthe House of in 14 years ments, chairing- the subcom Representatives, Africa on mittee for dozena them, of of a political the wisdom with spoke expect an individu can’t “You veteran. about his com al to feel different any afterpetitor the day than he an election than once he more before,” did the day That says it all. me. reminded Democracy has a new a new Democracy has undeniable resilience and momentum.

AFRICA’S LONG SPRING IN ESSENCE OUR SURVEY OF NOTABLE ARTICLES FROM OTHER JOURNALS AND MAGAZINES

FOREIGN POLICY & DEFENSE THE HIDDEN ROOTS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS NANNY ACADEMIES From The Annals of the American Academy From The Chronicle Review of Political and Social Science DEBATING AMERICA’S PIVOT From Foreign Affairs, Commentary, and SOCIETY The National Interest A FIRE’S UNSEEN BURNS THE SURGE GOES AWRY From Plos One From The American Interest THE LIMITS OF MENTORS From American Economic Journal: POLITICS & GOVERNMENT Applied Economics GREATNESS AND THE MERE POLITICIAN DISTRACTED INTO DEBT From National Affairs From Science IT’S NOT THE SCIENCE, STUPID! From Stanford Social Innovation Review RELIGION & PHILOSOPHY FAREWELL TO FOOTBALL ECONOMICS, LABOR & BUSINESS From The Christian Century THE GREAT MANAGEMENT DEBATE WHOSE ENLIGHTENMENT WAS IT? From Harvard Business Review From The American Historical Review CONTINUES

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 ARTS & LETTERS DECODING AUTISM From Scientific American MANUSCRIPTS ILLUMINATED THE WIKIPEDIA WAY From The Sewanee Review From The Journal of Military History TELEVISION’S NEW GOLDEN AGE From The Chronicle Review OTHER NATIONS NATION OF IMITATORS SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY From Prospect HERDERS UNCOWED INDIA’S BILLIONAIRE BOOM From Conservation From Economic and Political Weekly

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY High school seniors who sign up ex - combi “a to be pecting the academies of an Ivy Leaguenation university and sphere is saturated with reverence for saturated is with reverence sphere a Bruce Fleming, and tradition. honor Naval U.S. of English at the professor impressed. isn’t for 25 years, Academy “military The service a academies are cadets where he contends, Disneyland,” dis coddled pretenses are happy and guise mediocrity and cynicism. - demic and physical crucible, but some say the experience proves underwhelming. proves underwhelming. demic and physical crucible, but some say the experience Wake me when it’s over. Cadets enter the U.S. Naval Academy expecting an aca Cadets enter the U.S. over. me when it’s Wake “The Few, the Proud, the Infantilized” by Bruce Fleming, the Proud, the Infantilized” “The Few,

FOREIGN POLICY & DEFENSE POLICY FOREIGN , Oct. 8, 2012. in The Chronicle Review JONATHAN ERNST / REUTERS / CORBIS JONATHAN WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS, THE U.S. MILITARY MILITARY EXCEPTIONS, THE U.S. WITH A FEW as business much academies conduct in march they did a century Cadets ago: and shout quads lockstep the through The atmo at chow. the menu options THE SOURCE: ACADEMIES NANNY

IN ESSENCE FOREIGN POLICY & DEFENSE - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY “The academies are the ultimate “The ultimate the are academies Fleming radical chang- recommends “Inspections are announced and called and announced “Inspections are sloppily,” done or minute, the last off at moti “Students aren’t Fleming scoffs. uniforms care of their own vated to take the rulesor abide by because they realize all for just show.” it’s “central The he concludes. state,” nanny they is that types draw in alpha paradox” - regu mundane but smother them with and living. training, studying, on lations “Whenlet me make they to going are a student fumed to decisions?” some “The I graduate?” day Fleming. Training Reserve Officer After all, es. Corps across at universities programs the country mint twice officers as many at a quarter as the academies, per year that data suggest “no and of the cost, A worse quality.” of are officers ROTC at the academies fundamental problem is that academics and military training Belgium’s attention. forcompete cadets’ where undergraduate military academy, cadets alternate several between months may of training, of study and several more The should academies offer a solution. - trivial resent rules relax also breed that Mili the Royal as ment and contempt, They tary has done. College of Canada should be less forgiving with wayward brighter and fitter candidates students;

- Training is compromised, too. “Gone “Gone too. compromised, is Training The academies have a academiesfewThe have first-class “best PR talk about the and Happy military At the nation’s academies, gone are the days of “shape up or ship out.” are the days of ‘shape up or ship out.’ ” ” up or ship out.’ ‘shape the days of are a commando school” quickly discover school” a commando ath and action Affirmative otherwise. other factors, among letic priorities, A fifth of skew meritocratic admission. be shipped off to new have midshipmen educationbefore of remedial to a year they enter Annapolis. but too many Fleming says, students, in their studies. interest little real have since cadets hardly have Small wonder, Uncle Sam pays the skin in the game. bill for entire every student—they even a small salary—aboutreceive $400,000 per graduate. for au- disrespect only breeds brightest” Outstanding the students across thority. and Air Force, Navy, academies—Army, Coast Guard—tell Fleming the same and disillusioned, “angry, They are thing: frustrated.” who repeatedlyCadets fall shorton physical expulsion. tests do not face

IN ESSENCE FOREIGN POLICY & DEFENSE - - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Robert S. Ross, a political scientist a political scientist Ross, Robert S. The sudden switch has gone little dis gone switch sudden The has The pivot will leave little in the realm of in the little will leave pivot The cussed amid a welter of more pressing pressing of more a welter cussed amid fis to the domestic Iran from concerns, a few foreign- however, Now, cal crisis. in. policy weighing specialists are a is pivot thinks the College, Boston at trouble more has made China mistake. than usual for the United States over not That’s he admits. the last few years, the Rather, because it seeks conflict. The global in Beijing is skittish. regime the Chi on wreaked havoc recession un social and spurred nese economy regime could no The communist rest. buy popularity longer spectacular with it resorted Instead, growth. economic America’s “pivot” to Asia hasAmerica’s amid gone little discussed concerns. more pressing international affairs unaffected. America unaffected. affairs international for in Europe presence sturdy has been a fleets of ships and stationing 70 years, there. troops of thousands of hundreds op the it took AfterVietnam the War, preferring in the Pacific, posite approach engagement a lighter touch of economic and maritime dominance.

- - - n

“The Problem With the Pivot” by Robert S. Ross, in “The Problem With the Pivot” by Robert S. Ross, in

Fleming he makes these insists that basing agreements with allieswith Asia. East in agreements basing MANY AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGISTS AGREE: AGREE: STRATEGISTS GRAND AMERICAN MANY is slumbering Europe and Asia is stir United the power China is the great ring. In 2010, States on. should keep an eye the Obama announced administration which Asia, toward “pivot” long-term a drawing other things, among involves, military long-deployed in down forces and inking defense deals and Europe THE SOURCES: DEBATING DEBATING AMERICA’S PIVOT can take their places. And they to ought And can places. take their militaryof scraptradition the brass serv - civilian Better to have ing as presidents. Flem- academics—“ideally women,” “because of what so much ing suggests, of nonsense the just be to seems do we tryingolder men men younger to force a simulacrum to get to do what they say of respect.” not scorn. observations out of concern, “What hurts the most is that the aver for the has no respect midshipman age deeply respect contrast, by I, institution. its lamentable reality.” its goals—not , Nov.–Dec. 2012; “The Turn Away From Europe” by Away 2012; “The Turn Nov.–Dec. Foreign Affairs, , Nov. 2012; and “Asia’s New Age of Insta 2012; and “Asia’s Josef Joffe, in Commentary, Nov. 2012. in The National Interest, Nov.–Dec. bility” by Michael Wesley,

IN ESSENCE FOREIGN POLICY & DEFENSE - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY In short, the pivot appears to be a dan- appears to the pivot In short, in position is it only America’s Nor It is true is no longer that Europe not are Europeans the that is The fact has taken steps to enhance its military to enhance steps has taken capabilities there. “A strategymeant that was flop. gerous to check a rising its has sparked China its faith damaged and combativeness Chinese Ross argues. in cooperation,” concluded have leaders that the United States decades-old its has abandoned policy strategic of engagement. edi Josef Joffe, Asia that could suffer. tor of the German weekly Die Zeitand at of international politics a professor turn warns that America’s Stanford, so far with Europe—greeted from away both sides of the silence on “astounding” to trouble. an invitation Atlantic—is strategic fulcrumthe world’s and that of “core” The the Soviet is gone. threat fringes“the are But stable. is Europe out breaks fighting If Joffe says. brittle,” formerthe Soviet states, Balkans, the in neighborhoodsor nearby such as the will Europe Levant and North Africa, than a few more need much brigades of stability. American soldiers to restore in Eu- remain troops (OnlyU.S. 30,000 total during tenth of the peak one rope, the Cold War.) for Except up to the job themselves.

------has respond Washington Since 2010, has spun But Ross feels that the pivot China halted coop Beijing is livid. eration with the West in dealing with in dealing with West eration with the states such and as Iran belligerent in 2012 China an Also, North Korea. nounced plans to drill for oil in disputed and it waters in the South Sea, China to “appeasing an increasingly nation “appeasing to symbolicpublic with alist gestures of force.” new nerve rekindling old by ed to China’s bolstering and friendships Pacific in the defense suchwith offshore ties nations and the Philip- Japan, as New Zealand, Ross necessary, were These moves pines. consistent ways in some were and says, in toward trend with a long-standing in the region. engagement creased with displeasure citing China’s too far, Obama such policies administration Seoulbetween as refurbishing ties and (which weakened had Washington Bush) and W. somewhat under George militaryexpanding with cooperation especiallyCambodia and Vietnam, 2010 Secretary In China. which borders Stateof Hillary openly Clinton ex- supportpressed for the Philippines and Vietnam spat with China over in their the Spratly with the break Islands—a policy of staying out of territo past U.S. rial disputes.

IN ESSENCE FOREIGN POLICY & DEFENSE - - - Die THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY editor Joffe accepts that some kind editor Joffeaccepts that some Wesley recommends that the United that the United recommends Wesley integration also and regional Trade then? What happens to Europe, Zeit but is necessary, Pacific to the of pivot in which not one America turns its “The home. Atlantic is back Europe. on in yet, is boringHome and exasperating, throughout Asia, stirred new conflicts, new conflicts, stirred Asia, throughout up militaryand pushed as as well budgets the For rhetoric. levelthe belligerent of a much Asia is becoming United States, disputes Petty complicated place. more friendsregion in the America’s between a never- “pose for example, and Beijing, when to demon ending dilemma over to alliesstrate commitment and when neighbors silent to keep China’s to stay too assertive.” becoming from States rise the fray and let others above This, China in check. keep in the area China with a “present will he argues, complicated challenge more than much military direct with the competition United States.” Asia’s power. counterbalance China’s increasingly rely on powers prosperous their neighbors to keep their economies put a dent in ev would War growing. and cut off vital sources profits eryone’s further eco Promoting of raw materials. build a in Asia would integration nomic interest. sense of shared strong

- - - - - Michael Wesley, a professor at the a professor Wesley, Michael that predominated The Asian order Yet for feeble all their maddening Yet ness, the Europeans are stauncher allies are the Europeans ness, Austra than other candidates—India, Joffe argues, Finally, Saudi Arabia. lia, simplyis “Europe closer theaters the to might need to fight to the U.S. where important thanThat’s for more morrow.” even bet- are situ in “Forces reason. one there they are ter for not having to fight; for deterrence.” University and of Sydney in Australia fellow at the Brookings a nonresident warns that Americans must Institution, clearbe more about Asian realities. eyed in which the 1975 and 2000, between United States a regional over presided system of alliances a clear without says. Wesley vanishing, is leader, Asian is history. What“hegemony lite” he calls rise has awakened old tensions China’s France and Britain, the European states the European and Britain, France Only with militaries. little in their invest the United Statesthe help of and the “built which pre has a alliance, NATO training,” and of command cious edifice of any much accomplish can Europe led a European France thing militarily. but the effort in 2011, charge into Libya United States until the sputtered arrived with crucial surveillance technology, and know-how. smart bombs,

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- - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY - prob fundamental bonanzaThe bred when in 2014, awaits A reckoning totally been not has surge The with- Z. Brown, a fellow at the Council on a fellow on the Council at Brown, Z. Institute and the U.S. Relations Foreign in the southern prov Nawa, In of Peace. ince of Helmand, American aid gener ince of Helmand, half of the men than forjobs ated more in the district totaled $300 annually and third equal to almost a a sum per person, domes per capita gross of Afghanistan’s tic product. “District be governors however. lems, and thus, came the primary distributors, of the primary political beneficiaries, an enormously new effective patronage This occurred recounts. Brown system,” while centralministries, government historicallywhich have a key played received in Afghangovernance, role less attention. military will withdraw and the the U.S. distribute to jobs and power governors’ will consequentlyother favors recede. se to abilities centralThe ministries’ “have the provinces and manage cure not measurably and in some improved as the action atrophied have respects At says. Brown them,” from away moved all that American aid has the same time, expectations. inflated the population’s “enabled It allows. Brown out benefits, district rather governors than insurgents n - - “Bureaucracy Does Its Thing, Again” by Frances Z. Its Thing, Again” by Frances “Bureaucracy Does

Welcome to the wild world of post- Welcome , Nov.–Dec. 2012. , Nov.–Dec. Brown, in The American Interest erning body widely seen as a tool of Hamid Karzai President you appointed BarackPresident in 2009, Then, anyway. of money “surge” Obama announced a with an to Afghanistan, and troops heartswinning on emphasis and minds suchin hotly as yours. areas contested Taliban. American soldiers harried the AmericanEager the civilians bypassed ministries in Kabul you and brought and roads, repair cashto build schools, an unelected You, clean irrigation canals. suddenly became a political lightweight, very local powerful king. The United States Afghanistan. surge sought quick gains in security and de so it poured at the local level, velopment of the money into the most contentious explains Frances country’s 399 districts, IMAGINE YOU’RE A DISTRICT GOVERNOR IN GOVERNOR IN IMAGINE YOU’RE A DISTRICT A few war-torn southern Afghanistan. It job. wanted your nobody ago, years lurked. Taliban the was too dangerous; gov an unelected In faraway Kabul, THE SOURCE: the words of Robert Frost, it is also the it is Robert of Frost, the words ” in.’ ‘where you to take they have place THE SURGE GOES AWRY

IN ESSENCE FOREIGN POLICY & DEFENSE - - - n THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Showering far-flung districtgovernors gistical and political hurdles, mostly mostly gistical and political hurdles, the vicinity the Presi from of emanating of postponed the election dential Palace, United The and States councils.” these its allies sundry set up interim councils, con than sow but these did little more and frustration.fusion but it is yieldwith aid may fast results, to build a lasting government, no way 2014 approaches, As observes. Brown America should instead she argues, focus bolstering on ministries the and in both institutions other government 34 provinces. Kabul and Afghanistan’s truly at last, “The United must, States cultivate durable Afghangovernment systems rather than a series of tactical- level workarounds.” President Karzai had other plans. “Year “Year Karzaiother plans. President had lo of host “a writes, Brown after year,” -

Directly elected district councils were Directly elected districtwere councils But empowering them has had per them has had But empowering verse effects. The governors are stronger, stronger, are governors The effects. verse the system And is not. but governance governors bend The is not democratic. to the willin Kabul of their bosses and to the Americans aid and who provide less inclinedThey are to listen security. to the people in their district. supposed to make district governors to their constituents. accountable more Afghanistan’s governors governors Afghanistan’s to be the men the population viewed viewed the population the men to be Some district solvers.” problem as their ablygovernors served constituents. their governance but are stronger, is not.

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- DAVID J. & JANICE L. FRENT COLLECTION / CORBIS DAVID

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY A quarter-century later, as president as president A quarter-century later, coln cast the challenge of this style of stitution and laws.” Lincoln gave the gave Lincoln laws.” and stitution Springfield, in 28, age at speech 1838, in Illinois. Lincoln stayed States, of the United embodying true counsel, his own to political science professor Yale what Smith calls the constitutional Steven B. The constitutional style of leadership. preserves- constitu Smith says, leader, liberty while promoting order and tional that requires a balancing act It’s change. Lin equal parts boldness and restraint. -

“Lincoln’s Constitutional Leadership” by Steven B. Constitutional Leadership” by Steven “Lincoln’s

POLITICS & GOVERNMENT POLITICS the summer of 1864. Though he expected to lose his reelection bid, he would the summer of 1864. Though he expected to lose his to postpone the vote. hear nothing of using wartime exigencies as an excuse , Fall 2012. Smith, in National Affairs Campaign banners couldn’t lift the spirits of President Abraham Lincoln in lift the spirits of President Abraham Lincoln in Campaign banners couldn’t stitutions,” a young Abraham Lincoln a young stitutions,” and spirit” “mobocratic lamented the then lynch era, mobs of the Jacksonian needed he said, Americans, in full swing. for- the Con “reverence to rekindle their “The Perpetuation of Our PoliticalPerpetuation In “The of Our THE SOURCE: POLITICAL SPEECH, IN HIS FIRST MAJOR GREATNESS AND POLITICIAN THE MERE

IN ESSENCE POLITICS & GOVERNMENT - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Yet all constitutional leaders must must leaders all constitutional Yet Lincoln “argued that preservingand “argued Lincoln Lincoln founded his political faith on reverence for the Constitution. also find a way to move forward. For For to move forward. also find a way Re the to return this meant a Lincoln, to preserving bases of the institutional governance. be more may institutions maintaining Smith thandifficult founding them,” - will leaders con Constitutional writes. stantly the challenge of thwarting face hungry competitors Machiavellian for the glory a new with creating that comes Lincoln meet this challenge, To order. “Let prescribed political inoculation: by be breathed for the laws, reverence lisping the to everyAmerican mother, he pro that prattles her lap,” on babe, “Let it be claimed in his 1838 speech. religion of the nation.” the political come equality for all fundamentals: public’s He seized governed. of the and consent the Declarationon for of Independence the eloquence with which it expressed In 1861 he naturalinviolable laws. “I a feel never had have that avowed ing politically that did not spring from - - - - - (1513): (1513): to maintain its own its own to maintain weak for the liberties of its own Juggling these conflicting priorities conflicting Juggling these Constitutional leadership incorporates leadership Constitutional existence?” apart leadership from sets constitutional fo Smith says, types, other leadership Leaderslet should aspiring greatness to Charismatic means. the justify ends the the German described by leadership, is (1864–1920), Weber sociologist Max Charismatic have leaders another type. to a cause devotion a passionate that, but in others, devotion inspires in turn, any not constrained by such are leaders Progres principles“fixed action.” of leadership in the form of a question the form in leadership a question of included Con to 1861 message in an of necessity, “Must a government, gress: be too strong or too people, The first, in particular. three cusing on whichthe 20th century label would Nic by was enunciated “realpolitik,” in The colò Machiavelli Prince for Wilson, leaders—Woodrow sive example—believeall that problems canof governance scien be solved by The leader’s tific or technical means. If the change. is to spearhead mission needs to be reinterpreted Constitution it. so be this process, to accommodate elements of these styles while avoiding to Smith. according major pitfall, one types of the three heed much None pay

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- n than it was

wider THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY “Climate Science as Culture War” by Andrew J. by Andrew J. “Climate Science as Culture War”

The debate over whether greenhouse- The debate over Hoff- “boundedly are rational,” People in times of challenge—a paradox made made of challenge—ain times paradox forms— our constitutional by possible rests.” of our republic that the hope in 2001. in 2001. raising global tem- are gas emissions are humans whether peratures—and of sci- to blame—has exited the realm “culture, an issue of ence and become according and ideology,” worldviews, of a professor Hoffman, J. to Andrew sustainable enterprise at the University not entirely a bad That’s of Michigan. But it means that those who want thing. to address consensus to forge a national climate learn to think in change must terms. different fully investigate they can’t says; man , Fall 2012. Hoffman, in Stanford Social Innovation Review ing was occurring. Only 30 percent of Only of 30 percent ing was occurring. gap between The Republicans agreed. was groups the two SCIENCE, STUPID! THE SOURCE: LIVE ON THE DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS AND could be forgiven But you same planet. in taken Polls fortheythinking don’t. 2010 found that nearly of percent 70 Democrats believedthat global warm IT’S NOT THE

------Lincoln was no superman. Smith Smith Lincoln was no superman. Lincoln honored the Constitution Constitution the Lincoln honored Lincoln recognized that the Constitu tion imposed clear limits. For instance, instance, For imposed cleartion limits. dimmed in as his hopes for reelection delaying bal the suggested some 1864, vote could a on; was a war There loting. Lincoln demurred, jeopardize the Union. - with the Presi “co-operate to vowing between Union the save to as elect, dent inauguration.” and the the election quotes political Crick, scientist Bernard “an who described as the 16th president in disorderly, administrator, indifferent But Smith and even slothful.” consistent, “It is in this possibility of the concludes, politician servingmere leader as a great the sentiments embodied in the Dec embodied the sentiments to equality commitment The laration.” forex articulated in the document, opposition informed Lincoln’s ample, to slavery. During Civil the even the breach. in he suspended habeas corpus, War demonstra cracked antiwar on down and issued the Emancipation tors, All steps exceeded these Proclamation. But powers. his explicit constitutional careful Lincoln was in each instance, for basis his a constitutional to provide his duty in chief as commander action: the and defend” protect, “preserve, to Constitution.

IN ESSENCE POLITICS & GOVERNMENT - - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Remember that people are commit Remember that people are What that the notion do? Get over to Some of Hoffman’s other sugges Some of Hoffman’s ted to more than one principle. Some principle. than one ted to more for conservatives distrust may scientists, care deeply but about national example, They security and competitiveness. arguments about by might be persuaded that oil dependencythe threat poses to the United States. tions: First, recognize that science still recognize that science still First, tions: be left to The argument can’t matters. bull-headed climate-change deniers In 2011, and shrieking doomsayers. of Americansonly 39 percent believed scientists think global “most that In reality, warming is happening.” (though consensus a scientific there’s Scientists unanimity)not point. the on still public opinion; sway as a group about their the public needs to know judgment. collective perhaps unprecedented formsperhaps of global unprecedented no wonder it’s and governance,” ethics dig in their heels. people some Don’t urges. he all about the science, it’s and emo culture, try politics, to dismiss tion. They are going to be needed. No needed. going to be They are tion. few people are matter what their beliefs, commit “the abiding to make the going to sacrifices that will be neces ments” sary to tackle climate change purely on argument. the basis of rational

The debate often isn’t really about sci- The debate often isn’t Don’t dismiss politics, politics, Don’t dismiss culture, and emotion culture, and emotion from the climate change debate—they’re all useful. “When people hear about ence at all. hear an . . . they may climate change, implicit criticism that their lifestyle is the cause of the issue or that they are morally recognizing deficient for not as that, Given They feel attacked. it.” dealing with climate Hoffman believes, look taking a hard change will require at everythingof lawn the kinds from and “new suburbanites to use mowers the facts on all issues, so they other use all issues, on the facts often to arrivemeans positions, at their they identify groups from taking cues the basis of ideology, whether on with, formother some asso- or of occupation, Bounded rationality is affinity. or ciation overtaken that has forces of the one the shows, Research climate change debate. informed that the more forinstance, about climate science Republicans are, its about theythe less concerned are in the issue Deeper immersion effects. with tighter group seems to correlate affiliations.

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- THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY n Science rarely provides a smoking Sciencea smoking rarely provides 2010 Pope Benedict XVI cited climate XVI cited Benedict Pope 2010 humanity. to as a threat change Hoffman in this case, and it won’t gun, arguments can its prevail. Yet observes. major portions of the pub years, For between the scientific link lic doubted “Absolute and lung cancer. smoking today, Yet is stilllacking. certainty” history—and those doubts are so is America’s the issue. the argument over climatewar over the could go change same way. - Even careful language choices can choices can language careful Even make a difference. Only of 44 percent a difference. make said they study Republicans recent one in be real. to warming” “global considered change,” When“climate asked about its acknowledged 60 percent however, re The needs to be challenge existence. Scientists and light: framed in a positive should shape opinion others who would American and our know-how “stress “brokers” Climate capacity to innovate.” can communities own doubters’ from in example, For also make a difference.

IN ESSENCE POLITICS & GOVERNMENT - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY The researchers tried all kinds of tried allof kinds researchers The strategies on a group of young women women of young group a strategies on financial breaks, more parts: assembling None even better lighting. incentives, recounts for much, of those accounted former of Har head Kiechel III, Walter vard Business Publishing former and vard magazine. Fortune managing editor of factors social surprise, everyone’s To and his Har Mayo Elton pivotal. proved colleagues realized that productiv vard ity because of the simple fact increased been that the Hawthorne had workers - - “The Management Century” by Walter Kiechel III, in Kiechel Century” by Walter “The Management

ECONOMICS, LABOR & BUSINESS LABOR ECONOMICS, Cicero, Illinois, in 1930, were among the subjects of a study that revolutionized modern management thinking.Cicero, Illinois, in 1930, were among the subjects of output rose because they “became a team and women’s Harvard Business School professor Elton Mayo said the to cooperation in an experiment.” the team gave itself wholeheartedly and spontaneously WESTERN ELECTRIC COMPANY HAWTHORNE STUDIES COLLECTION. BAKER LIBRARY HISTORICAL COLLECTIONS, HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL HISTORICAL COLLECTIONS, HARVARD STUDIES COLLECTION. BAKER LIBRARY HAWTHORNE WESTERN ELECTRIC COMPANY in Hawthorne Works Company’s Electric relays at Western These workers, shown assembling electromagnetic sors from Harvardsors from Business School set workers about determining what made objective: elusive but simple Their tick. maximizing productivity. thorne Works in Cicero, Illinois, profes Illinois, in Cicero, Works thorne THE SOURCE: WESTERN ELECTRIC’S HAW IN 1927, AT THE GREAT DEBATE MANAGEMENT , Nov. 2012. Review, Nov. Harvard Business

IN ESSENCE ECONOMICS, LABOR & BUSINESS ------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY At business schools, finance profes business schools, At Economic setbacksEconomic and technologi sors and hardnosed management theo- management sors and hardnosed author of ristssuch as Michael Porter, displaced Strategy (1980), Competitive been offering courses in teachers who’d such fields organizational as dy “soft” in were managers Professional namics. high demand—the number of MBAs cal change brought the numbers people people numbers the calchange brought ’80s, the 1970s and back in to the fore number-crunching led by consultants Bruceof the mold in Henderson’s Group. Consulting pioneering Boston Where Strategy was their mantra. the mar- to to react used companies to executives implored consultants ket, dictate to it—and to their employees. “Strategy’s and companion constant “the was Kiechel writes, facilitator,” to take a sharpimperative pencil and to every aspect of the . . a stopwatch . operations.” company’s the “people people” overtook such overtook such people” “people the thinking mechanisticimpersonal and Call theirs in the middle century. of the the warm-and-fuzzy to man approach the experi from Following agement. that every it holds ments at Hawthorne, potential and everyhas employee insti Treat is a delicatetution social system. organization and your both with care, will be handsomely rewarded.

- - - (1946), (1946), Concept of the Corporation On the strength of works beginning of works On the strength Ever since, Kiechel says, manage Kiechel says, since, Ever The Hawthorne studies revealed that The Hawthornerevealed that studies by management maven Peter Drucker, Drucker, Peter maven management by ment’s “numbers people” have battled have people” “numbers ment’s War World Before people.” “people its suchtexts as by former the swore II, The Principles of Scientific Management an Taylor, Winslow Frederick by (1911), “one was engineer who held that there task. any to accomplish best way” with consulted by the researchers duringthe the researchers by consulted experiment and because the women group positive developed a strong, had dynamic. to automatons not mere “workers were with a stop and goosed be measured that it was probably to helpful watch; afterinquire what they knew and felt; con substantial had and that a group to it was prepared much how over trol management a time when At produce.” a simple science of was thought to be these were supervision and incentives, insights. novel For decades, management’s For decades, management’s “numbers people” have battled its “people people.”

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------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY The Annals of the American Academy of Political of Academy American the of Annals The “The Politics of Consumer Debt: U.S. State Policy Consumer Debt: U.S. State Policy “The Politics of

A crucial step, writes Louis Hyman, writes Louis Hyman, A crucial step, E SOURCE: ment policies set the stage by channel by stage ment policies set the borrowing. ing money into consumer School, ILR a historian at Cornell’s Hous of the Federal was the creation (FHA) and Federal ing Administration Mortgage(Fannie Association National - Pre Depression. duringMae) the Great mortgage been the finance had viously, lo constrained by of localdomain banks, The new tapped institutions cal resources. The FHA of capital. sources larger much Mae and Fannie mortgage loans, insured banks and re bought mortgages from Under the FHA’s sold them to investors. the agency in moreover, Title I program, loans to small home-improvement sured lenders committed In 1935, consumers. nearly a half billion dollars to loans for an amount several improvements, home of the New than the budget times greater DON’T BLAME GREEDY BANKERS AND HEDGE BANKERS AND HEDGE DON’T BLAME GREEDY for fund managers everything that went in the financial crisiswrong of 2007–08. Decades of poorly govern conceived THE HIDDEN ROOTS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS TH and the Rise of Investment in Consumer Credit, 1920–2008” by Investment in Consumer Credit, and the Rise of in Hyman, Louis 2012. and Social Science, Nov. - - - - n Concern for “stakeholders,” such as “stakeholders,” forConcern The softer side of they? Or were global. gone Managerialismnow has awarded per year grew from 26,000 in 26,000 in grew from year per awarded in 1985. to 67,000 1970 to solicitude way gave labor unions, bal pay As executive for shareholders. grew to reward the pressure and looned companies many stockshareholders, the on emphasis Drucker’s of sight lost Layoffs and fi centrality of employees. nancially risky ensued. takeovers hostile theory reengineering” “corporate A new corporate many inspired and makeovers employ The days of treating upheavals. over. ees as people were by exemplified persisted, management the smash 1982 , ofIn Search Excellence - Wa and Robert Peters Tom bestseller by right the next 30 years, “For terman Jr. “the Kiechel says, day,” to our own down coexist would . . strains two . thought of in uneasy tension.” people around 500,000 some In 2011, or an equiv the world earned an MBA This is allgood, to the alent degree. “Capitalism and the Kiechel insists. managerial ideas that struggle to make indisputably have productive it more the world richer rendered and better [T]here ‘the will never be . . . educated. almost always But there’s best way.’ one a better way.”

IN ESSENCE ECONOMICS, LABOR & BUSINESS - - - - - d

n They floode ” THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY In the past, Hyman says, banks and banks and Hyman says, In the past, Until 1970, Hyman concludes, a “vir a Hyman concludes, Until 1970, tuous system . . . balanced business and balanced . . tuous system . The federalgovernment debt.” consumer oftenhad to steer credit used its power which led to the into business investment, “Even now, of high-paying jobs. creation the financial to remedies consider as we should be considering not just we crisis, what the state can restrict but what it can and help in- markets to shape credit do” Hyman reminds debt,” “Personal dustry. “is anything but individual.” us, tutions applied the idea to credit card applied the idea to credit tutions other forms and many of car loans, debt, was born. explosion The credit debt. other mortgagethem asked had lenders “Can I sell loan if I make it?” this selves, “Howcan produce I they asked, Now rates and maturity dates. Investors loved loved Investors rates and maturity dates. so that financial insti them—so much high-risk borrowers and redlined neigh high-risk borrowers borhoods with aggressive loan offers, loan offers, borhoods with aggressive even as businesses in those same neigh borhoods to get. found loans hard lost sight of how much of how much lost sight they were funneling credit to consumers. loans for market? the more Federal policymakers policymakers Federal ------The real problems began in the 1960s, began in the 1960s, real problems The In 1983 came another crucial federally All of these measures unlocked All des measures of these perately needed capital the and helped other effects. were there but economy, been past had banks in the Commercial the newwary lending to consumers; of federal infrastructure financial encour the banks to dip their toes into aged they did to the degree And that market. small from away credit they siphoned and medium-sized businesses. federal policymakers lost“as Hyman says, was construct the economy sight of how America’s Watching their policy.” ed by suburbs flourish moldered, while its cities wrongly concludedCongress that easy (rather jobs) was respon good than credit and set about growth sible for the suburbs’ trying of mortgage the flow to increase re had Mae Fannie In the past, dollars. but sold individual mortgages to investors, with another along 1970, Februaryon 19, first mortgage-the it issued institution, packaging mortgages backed securities, potential more many that had into bonds the pricere in paid was Again, buyers. available to businesses. duced credit the col financial innovation, sponsored lateralized mortgage (CMO). obligation sliced into mortgage were bonds Now interest with different each tranches, Deal’s Public Works Administration. Administration. Works Public Deal’s

IN ESSENCE ECONOMICS, LABOR & BUSINESS

- - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Schneider and his colleagues were Schneider and his colleagues were The similarities didn’t end there. Six- end there. The similarities didn’t surprised that victims who to discover the Station physically from emerged un scathed long-term setbacks suffered as serious as those that afflicted burn vic and uninjured Of the 104 injured tims. a surveyvictims who returned sent to all ’07, survivorsknown 2005 and between reported an abnormallyboth groups low general quality of life. ty-two of burn victims needed percent trauma long after the fire. trauma long after the fire. REUTERS / CORBIS Jack Russell, front man of the hard rock band Great White, fire. grieves the day after the 2003 Station nightclub Longley was killed in theGreat White guitarist Ty blaze. its with Even uninjured survivors struggled to cope

- Plos One,

“The Long-Term Impact of Physical and Emo Impact “The Long-Term

The trauma that night left an indelible SOCIETY HE SOURCE:HE were injured. injured. were Surveying the survivors. on mark them C. Jeffrey after severalyears event, the Harvardat physician a Med- Schneider, colleagues and his found ical School, depression, high rates abuse, of alcohol symptoms. and posttraumatic stress experience in the be lessons may There survivors to treat how on all of of kinds war to natural disasters. from trauma, ON FEBRUARY 20, 2003, THE 1980S 20, 2003, THE 1980S ON FEBRUARY White metal band Great opened a nightclub in its set at the Station, with Rhode Island, Warwick, West display. pyrotechnic impressive an than The packed house of more 450 But their approval. fans roared flammable sound on landed sparks a igniting the stage, near insulation became one The fire furious blaze. history: In of the deadliest in U.S. 100 the panicked rush to escape, killed more 200 and people were UNSEEN BURNS UNSEEN T A FIRE’S tional Trauma: The Station Nightclub Fire” by Jeffrey C. C. Fire” by Jeffrey Station Nightclub The tional Trauma: Elizabeth Selleck, Felipe Fregni, Trinh, Nhi-Ha T. Schneider, Joel Stein, in Sara S. Salles, Colleen M. Ryan, and Oct. 2012.

IN ESSENCE SOCIETY - American , Oct. 2012.

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY n “Longer-Term Impacts of Mentoring, Educational “Longer-Term

Services, and Learning Incentives: Evidence From a Randomized Services, and Learning Incentives: Evidence From a Randomized United States” by Núria Rodríguez-Planas, in in the Trial Economic Journal: Applied Economics high schools in cities such as Washington Washington high schools in cities such as mentors, professional with and Houston and cash throughout awards tutoring, The long-term their high school years. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN A MEDIOCRE HIGH A MEDIOCRE HIGH HAPPENS WHEN WHAT a disadvantaged school student from attention? special receives background at a cost of nearly Beginning in 1995, the years, five $25,000 per pupil over federal Quantum- Opportunity Pro The gram to the test. put this question was to raise high whose goal program, school and college enroll graduation 580 students at 11 showered ment rates, THE LIMITS OF MENTORS THE SOURCE: little access to services to help them cope. to serviceslittle access to help them cope. Schneider Warwick, West of The lesson such is that and his colleagues believe, services survivors upon should be urged of trauma. Whether they suffered burns suffered they Whether survivors fire’s or not, the psychic scars.bore similar - - - - - Employment after the fire proved the afterEmployment proved fire the Though burns survivors’ compounded psychological counseling; 58 percent of of 58 percent psychological counseling; it as needed injured not were who those Thirty-five injured the of percent well. suffered of the uninjured and 21 percent symptoms. posttraumatic stress severe re 24 percent, and 21 percent (Another reported moderate symptoms spectively, While of posttraumatic stress.) 38 per alcohol to admitted cent of the injured of 47 percent some misuse since the fire, the unhurt also reported it. hit harder burnwere victims exception; than their problems work-related by Less than 70 counterparts. uninjured to the of burn victims returned percent job they held at the time of the fire, had than 90 percent with more compared The in unhurt. of the people who were hos long endured whom of many jured, significantpitalizations and bore scars, reported higher rates of unemployment or only part-time subsequent to work survivors of injured A third who the fire. to the surveyresponded said they were currently out of a job. especially in employment, problems, traumaemotional was the main source the authors con ills, of longer-term hit by As in war zones and areas clude. probably the uninjured natural disasters, no medical care and thus had received

IN ESSENCE SOCIETY - - n THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY A more dubious distinction set the set the distinction dubious A more bright biggest spot was Quantum’s Quantum“widely as was regarded Quantum time By the cohort apart: they their mid-twenties, they reached actuallylikely have a bit more to were for a crimebeen arrested con than the is possible explanation One group. trol with schoolsthe and pleading that by mentors behalf, their charges’ police on people these young sheltered have may when they into consequences got from the likelihood thus increasing trouble, of riskier the road. behavior down Students in education. on its impact to college at higher went the program can claim Women rates than their peers. 20 were They too. for this trend, credit likely more to attend a postsec- percent ondary (nearly institution of 69 percent Quantum of 55 percent versus women for impact the while group), control the (and deemed men was half that much Monetary in- statistically insignificant). a part in this played have may centives superior Quantum performance; gradu an in college received ates who enrolled than $1,000 in awards of more average the program. from in short-term evaluations successful” late 1990s and early in the conducted Rodríguez-Planas says the pic- 2000s. run the long over so rosy. is not ture -

ployment was also a disappoint- was Employment Initially, Quantum gradu students Initially, ated from high schoolor obtained a ated from quickly both more higher and at GED group, ratescontrol in a than their peers femalelargely to strides thanks by made But two participants in the program. - advan that after years survey, initial the people who had people who had Young mentors were more likely than others to get in trouble with the law. tage disappeared as high school dropouts as high school dropouts disappeared tage course and reversed group in the control earned GEDs. Five after years the end of the ment. the Quantum students were program, group likelyno more than the control The poor per- a job. to be holding down formance of Quantum men was the key were in the program women The cause. and many likelymore to be employed, higher-quality 25 had jobs—they were likely a job with more to have percent in the health insurance than women group. control results were decidedly mixed, reports decidedly were results mixed, a research Rodríguez-Planas, Núria fellow for at the Institute the Study of Germany. Labor in Bonn,

IN ESSENCE SOCIETY - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Withper level shots at their just three Remarkably, all of the poor players in allplayers of the poor Remarkably, Poor people put so much Poor people put into cognitive energy needs that meeting daily longer-term little is left for planning. disposal, the poor faced a great tempta a great the poor faced disposal, given 30 shots (three per level), while while per level), shots (three 30 given In per level). 150 (15 received others the given were players some each group, later from shots of borrowing option repeat having to to avoid in order rounds “interest an pay But they would a level. shot. percent—one of 100 rate” allowed were Those who to borrow. tion performed game the in borrow to worse to make do with than the poor who had scarcity In effect, shots per round. three with borrowing caused the poor players and they overbor rights to misjudge, (The no had ability to borrow rowed. players, “rich” of the scores on impact shots per level.) 15 those given to aim their the experiment longer took that And did. shots than the rich players who The poor players often paid off: points per more scored borrow couldn’t

- Science,

“Some Consequences of Having Too Little” by Anuj of Having Too “Some Consequences

OURCE:

Call it the tunnel vision of scarcity. Call of scarcity. it the tunnel vision Shah and colleagues devised a series WHY DO POOR PEOPLE SO OFTEN WASTE WASTE PEOPLE SO OFTEN WHY DO POOR social years, For debt? up pile and money blamed environmental scientists have personality and factors traitsunique to a behavioral Shah, K. But Anuj the poor. Universityscientist at the Chicago, of HarvardSendhil economist Mullaina THE S DISTRACTED DISTRACTED of a professor and Eldar Shafir, than, something say psychology at Princeton, is universal and more innate both more at work. all humans—not When low, funds are intent- more poor—focusthe just much put so We ly short-term on demands. energy cognitive much into immediate is little leftconcerns that there for long- The same dynamic term considerations. short People domains: other prevails in time or hungryof forfood have also short time horizons. of clever laboratory experiments to show In an Angry the dynamichow works. could players Birds–style video game, clearing points by score with a targets were “poor,” the Some players, slingshot. INTO DEBT K. Shah, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Eldar Shafir, in Mullainathan, and Eldar Shafir, K. Shah, Sendhil 2, 2012. Nov.

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- , the , n THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Shah and colleagues found also that think don’t researchers The three their findings show that poor people people poor that show findings their short-term to condemned forever are the poor world, In the real thinking. but generally money, much save do not will many for very particular purposes— for example. cleaner, to a buy a vacuum That tendency an opportunity provides people to getting to change behavior by of their specific future focus more on needs and desires. researchers administered a simple cog a simple administered researchers the cognitive costs of poverty costs the cognitive mea- are based In another experiment, surable. Wheel show of the game on Fortune With many test afternitive the game. the rich players guesses to use, more record fatigue and exhibit more might players poor the was it But scores. lower scoring lower. who suffered, - - Fam To make sure these results weren’t a a weren’t these results make sure To shot than their rich counterparts. But richthan their shot counterparts. tryingevery to make hard shot count came cost for the poor with a cognitive more The borrow: to allowed were who the time they aiming their shots, spent later from shots they borrowed more rounds. test, the authors designed a similar fluke, the television game show based on making time rather than shots , ily Feud were results The the scarce commodity. version In another essentially the same. gave the researchers of the same game, the ability to preview players some the With - cog more question. next round’s rich players to spare, resources nitive of the preview to feature advantage took play Poor their performance. improve and their ers failed to notice this feature, did not improve. scores

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- - - a quarrel a quarrel NFL PHOTOS / AP IMAGES THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY It wouldn’t be the first time Christians It wouldn’t jamin J. Dueholm, a Lutheran pastor Dueholm, jamin J. and a die-hard Illinois, Wauconda, in the grid loves fan, Packers Bay Green time for he argues that it’s But iron. American Christianslook long a take to the game. by done at the damage Due criedhave foul popular sport, on fathers objected Church holm notes. to violent spectacles in ancient Rome, gladiators. between not least the bouts “The man who when he sees repeatedly, is linked to cognitive and and to cognitive is linked repeatedly, years that appear problems emotional Ben after cleats. hang up their players - , Sept. The Christian Century “Unnecessary Roughness: The Moral Hazards of Hazards Moral The Roughness: “Unnecessary

RELIGION & PHILOSOPHY RELIGION Former NFL safety Dave Duerson committed suicide in 2011. Duerson suspected near the Former NFL safety Dave Duerson committed suicide associated with head trauma. An autopsy revealed end of his life that he had a degenerative brain disease for negligence. is suing the NFL and Riddell, a helmet manufacturer, son that he was correct. Duerson’s FOOTBALL IS THE NEW GLADIATORIAL COM GLADIATORIAL FOOTBALL IS THE NEW to bear the wounds and players bat, Sixty-three of National percent it. prove League sustained an players Football injury sort of some during the 2010 one least at 20 suffered in One season. if incurred an injury which, concussion, THESOURCE: TO FAREWELL FOOTBALL Football” by Benjamin J. Dueholm, in Football” by Benjamin 19, 2012.

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- - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Spectators are affected, too. One One too. Spectators affected, are “the central liturgicalAmeri of act As can civic religion,” football unites people can religion,” civic of allstripes that fewway in a national Nonethe Dueholm writes. rituals do, come have may “the time he warns, less, The worst of these is chronic traumatic is these of worst chronic The a degenerative (CTE), encephalopathy brain autopsies, Through brain disease. have than 30 former NFL players more been posthumously with the diagnosed Several have affected players disease. Dave One of them, suicide. committed safety a retired for the Chi Duerson, shot himself in the chest in cago Bears, tragic the research in that 2011 hope of his study through could be advanced that he had autopsy confirmed An brain. CTE.had study found that fans derive particular per matchups that are from enjoyment higher levels of violence. to have ceived football viewers “Sensation-seeking” a spike in showed study in a different Those during violent plays. stimulation espe plays can make for incongruities, cially forpeace. Christianspreach who noticed myself than once “I more have for garden- my children reproaching Dueholm admits, variety squabbling,” linebacker] watched [Packer as we “even MatthewsClay land a bone-jarring hit a quarterback.”on

- - - Dueholm argues that the same spiri- Some 67,000 high school Some 67,000 suffer football players year. concussions every tual and, particularly, physical concerns particularly, tual and, most popular sport. apply to America’s Some67,000 high school football players according suffer concussions everyyear, concus- more and many to official tallies, and the youth At unreported. go sions receive players moreover, college levels, At the pro no salary or health benefits. on the streets coming to blows will try blows to coming streets the on earlywrote the Christian it,” to quiet “willsta in the Tertullian, theologian danger fights far more dium applaud mourned of the fate Tertullian ous.” whom of many gladiators, the bloodied criminals servingwere out sentences. Father, another Church Like Augustine, worried that the deadly Tertullian and games desensitized onlookers eager stripped them of compassion. thousands of former NFL fessional level, recently have and their relatives players of lawsuits against the league filed scores too lightly concussions and for treating withholding information linking head ailments. trauma to long-term cognitive

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THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY It’s condescending and “Eurocentric,” “Eurocentric,” and condescending It’s “Muchof the debate about Enlight The very idea that the idea that the The very a was solely Enlightenment is wrong.European creation enment in Europe can be understood enment in Europe to the challenges of as a response ex- European as global integration” with the Indians of contacts plorers’ Mandarins, China’s North America, and others raised new about questions a one- But it wasn’t human existence. During Revolu- French the street. way “explicitly Assembly the National tion, of civil rights denied the extension to It was only after a 1791 slave slaves.” that in their Haitian colony revolution to rethink compelled were the French they later, years Three position. their abolished slavery. to cling to the tra continues, Conrad that the Enlightenment notion ditional because doing so 1800, ended around “When - contributions. excludes others’ it is to speak open our mouths, ever we Japanese reformer ” ‘enlightenment,’ of As if to blur the old boundaries, Conrad Conrad boundaries, old the blur to if As often rather Enlightenment speaks of than the Enlightenment.

------The American Historical n “Enlightenment in Global History: A Historiographi A History: “Enlightenment in Global

The great ideas of the Enlighten The great ment—individual rights, secularism, secularism, ment—individual rights, not merely the belief in science—were and disseminated West in the invented - but con contends, Conrad elsewhere, the world. around tinuously reinvented end in didn’t the Enlightenment And but con say, accounts as standard 1800, tinued into the 19th century and beyond. MOVE OVER, VOLTAIRE, AND MAKE ROOM AND MAKE ROOM MOVE OVER, VOLTAIRE, and a Rammohan Roy, Kilchun, Yu for - Enlight the in strangers other of host Scholars and intel enment pantheon. been hacking at the away lectuals have arguing that Enlightenment for years, was just a mirage or of reason” “age the a cleverly vehicle veiled of oppression. a historian at SebastianNow Conrad, argues that the University, Free Berlin’s verythat the Enlightenment was idea is wrong. solely creation a European THESOURCE: WHOSE ENLIGHTEN for Christians to exercise what remains what remains for Christians to exercise turn by power culture-shaping of our whose dangers a game from ing away even grave their extent is not as are fully known.” MENT IT? WAS Review, Oct. 2012. cal Critique” by Sebastian Conrad, in cal Critique” by Sebastian Conrad,

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- - - , which in , ri THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY n Ultimately, Conrad concludes, “it was concludes, Conrad Ultimately, nomenon that it had alwaysit had that nomenon purported to be.” Confucian thought denotes the princi thought denotes Confucian - on and harmony order ple that bestows the to express was used human society, and the rationalityidea of laissez-faire exchange.” of market circulation, global of only process this - copro and transnational translation, that turnedthe Enlightenment duction phe universal into the general and national projects” of improvement, ac improvement, of projects” national Often modernizers Conrad. to cording grafted newexisting tradi ideas onto the term “In Japan, tions.

As it developed beyond Europe, En- Europe, As it developed beyond Tsuda Mamichi declared (1829–1903) Tsuda non- that to say not That’s 1870s. in the experiences of Enlightenment Western always principles the same with shared for Tsuda, counterparts. Western their Christianity argued that was example, precisely the vehicle Enlightenment, of thinkers suchthe opposite of what as believed. Diderot and Denis Voltaire (1772–1883) Rammohan Roy India’s also defended was a reformer who Hinduism. lightenment came linked less to to be fetters the of from individuals freeing and “collective to church and state than

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- THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Books published before 1501, called 1501, before published Books deed, the “intellectual founders” of the of “intellectual founders” the deed, modern age. in clothes” incunabula (“swaddling indicating their arrival during the Latin, on the emergence of printing and, in of printing the emergence on and, - THE BRITISH LIBRARY / ROBANA VIA GETTY IMAGES THE BRITISH LIBRARY In 2001, a copy of Shakespeare’s First Folio, published First in In 2001, a copy of Shakespeare’s 1623, The First Folio is in New York. fetched $6.2 million at Christie’s exist. to known are precious but copies not very scarce; 230 Antony and and Antony from from Tempest The , Macbeth “What Is a Rare Book?” by Fred C. Book?” by Fred C. “What Is a Rare

Rare books’ real value, Robinson Robinson value, real Rare books’ AR , Fall 2012. Robinson, in The Sewanee Review William Shakespeare died, William Shakespeare died, of his friendstwo fellow and collected his plays, actors 36 of pub- half of them never before wresting such thereby lished, titles as THE SOURCE: AFTER IN 1623, SEVEN YEARS and , Cleopatra of original An copy oblivion. this collection of the Bard’s - as the First known Fo work, has an asking price now of lio, - consid is It nearlymillion. $5 C. writes Fred book, a rare ered Yale’s a librarian of Robinson, Elizabethan Club collection of not copies are yet books, rare to exist known 230 are scarce: But as is the case for the today. printed in Gutenberg Bible, the 15th century surviving and now in “desirability the First Folio’s 47 copies, its availability.” far exceeds is not monetary but his maintains, &LETTERS TS MANUSCRIPTS ILLUMINATED Such a window provide books torical.

IN ESSENCE ARTS & LETTERS - - - -

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY The owners of the play, the acting the play, the of owners The pie” on its title page. It is still considered page. its title on pie” Folio of 1623 is close The First as such. but it was published us to the original, had ing only company what the acting which from copy hand—a working on company to which Shakespeare sold company had the pirates with a countered the rights, 1604, quarto printed the followingyear, “the true and perfectproclaiming cop it because earliest the they are printings of illustrate the To literarytreasured works. practicalrarities value in fostering have Rob and understanding,” “appreciation His turns again to Shakespeare. inson survives Hamlet edi- seminal in three but only is truly one the author’s. tions, was printed of 1603, The first edition, manuscript an ac piratesby who hired in a minor role played once tor (he’d memory. from the play ) to recite Hamlet memoryA bad it was—even the famed soliloquy is corrupted; be” be or not “To minor character of the only the words almost perfectly. rendered are Marcellus The first edition of Hamlet was a pirated text created by hiring an actor to recite the play from memory. ------(1614). Signed with the initials J. Signed with the initials J. (1614). The majority prized are books of rare Association copies, rare books con books rare copies, Association taining evidence that they were “asso taining evidence that they were are importantan with ciated person,” your and getting especially collectible, boast than confers more one hands on Scholars intrigued are by ing rights. Thomas inscribed in Sir a reader verses Overbury’sWifeWiddow A the Now of Thomas OverbvryeSir Being A most ex of of the choice and singular poem quisite a wife stanzasthe echo rhymethe scheme, M., and imagery of John of some meter, published work. Milton’s “infancy tell a the art of of printing”), culturalthe about lot history their of Early print English countries of origin. - for notable produc are for instance, ers, not Latin. in the vernacular, ing books WilliamPioneer printer strove Caxton persones’ ‘simple edification“the of for ” lernyng,’ and ‘erudicion for much as and this populist bent notes, Robinson “increasinglyimportant become would the Even in English intellectual history.” typeface used in early instruc is books Because to schools taught children tive: modern or black letter, type, gothic read scholars infer printed that pages in that while meant for audiences, lay font were for sophis or italic were texts in roman ticated readers.

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- - -

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Mad Men an uncanny 1960s veri , an AMC series about a Breaking Bad, So of a punch much that viewers who Doherty, chair of American studies chair of Americanstudies Doherty, TV Doherty is no says the shift to Arc akers Hollywood moviemakers are watching their backs. invest hours upon hours in these series hours upon invest oftenThat’s demand artistic perfection. Meticulous set design what they get. lends manu teacher-cum-methamphetamine at Brandeis University, says this is a says is a this at Brandeis University, have tube may The game changer: as the of the silverpulled ahead screen Arc medium in Hollywood. premier the prestige, “where the talent, TV is These swirl.” and the cultural buzz now the small on screen, appear may shows watched like moviesbut they are and the viewer “For unfold like novels. the strands of the who tunes in late, intricate seem too tan plot lines may but the insular gled ever to unthread, pack the shows how are complexities their punch.” desertThe cinematography similitude. of a leave would in Albuquerque, facturer envious. director big-screen less wary are Networks than accident. - - n Game of Thrones is not likely “Storied TV: Cable Is the New Novel” by Thomas “Storied TV:

SOURCE:

All three editions—1603, 1604, and and 1604, editions—1603, All three Doherty, in The Chronicle Review, Sept. 21, 2012. Doherty, dow. Tidy endings to every episode and dow. Long of arcs out. static characters are character filmed and plot development in. are in big-ticket productions A RANDOM EPISODE OF THE MULTISEASON A RANDOM EPISODE OF THE MULTISEASON AMC drama Mad Men or HBO medi - eval fantasy What’s to enlighten a first-time viewer. Draper’s Don adman allusion to this Whopast? secret rules Seventhe King- the to Welcome Westeros? of doms Thomas Doherty’s TV,” world of “Arc name for a new of television shows breed out the win old conventions that throw THE TELEVISION’S NEW GOLDEN AGE a director had cut and added lines and and lines and added cut had a director inserted directions. stage The 1603 rare. considered 1623—are can edition piratteach us about the from day; of Shakespeare’s ing practices can we learn the about the First Folio, But only the 1604 staging of his plays. copies only three authentic, is edition only and of those is in one of it survive, assessed is That copy perfectcondition. “but writes, Robinson at $10 million, priceless.” is in fact the book

IN ESSENCE ARTS & LETTERS - - The n THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY (1999–2007) (1999–2007) The Sopranos He credits He credits and the Baltimore-set crime dramaand the Baltimore-set both telecast HBO, on Wire (2002–08), serieswith being the first ad to take vantage of these trends. They’ll hardly of these trends. vantage yet quite “The lineup hasn’t be the last. the theatrical film as dethroned feature canvas for moving-image the preferred but Hollywood moviemakers artistry, watching their backs.” are a medium of blinkered perspectives and perspectives of blinkered a medium possesses television now heads, talking horizontal and the high resolution space and pre cinematography for expressive Doherty mise en scène,” cision-point writes. - - - they used to be of airing shows with theyof airing to be used with shows which a world opens up of content, adult important, More thematic possibilities. TV has changed people watch the way video recorders, Digital dramatically. via com online to shows plus access mean that fans or tablet, phone, puter, Every subtle plot never miss an episode. twist or nuance of character—and there box DVD of both—is noted. many are viewers the chance sets give to consume supple in movie-length chunks, shows footage and com mented with bonus screens high-definition Large, mentary. action display in dens and family rooms “Heretofore and drama in all their glory.

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- JOHN WARBURTON-LEE / GETTY IMAGES JOHN WARBURTON-LEE THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Pastoralists number in the hundreds in the hundreds number Pastoralists cupy, along with forest dwellers, many many dwellers, forest with along cupy, survivingof the planet’s commons.” Iraq, Israel, and Saudi Arabia,” notes notes and Saudi Arabia,” Israel, Iraq, consultant and environmental author rid getting and they’re Pearce, Fred a status marker. once of their camels, their to get families manage many Still, selling them to by sheep to pasturage countries fellow Anizzah in adjacent and buying the animals back at the end of the season. billion another of millions worldwide; - farming with herd people combine “oc Herders pastures. common ing on “What Tragedy? Whose Commons?” by Fred Pearce, Whose Commons?” “What Tragedy?

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY SCIENCE A Gabbra herdsman drives his camels across Kenya’s Chalbi desert. Chalbi desert. A Gabbra herdsman drives his camels across Kenya’s increasingly squeezed by state borders and privatization. Pastoralists depend on shared lands, but they’re THE ANIZZAH, A BEDOUIN TRIBE IN EASTERN EASTERN A BEDOUIN TRIBE IN THE ANIZZAH, range of a 600-mile- free had once Jordan, desertof swath wide between stretching As Rivers. Euphrates and Jordan the Anizzah the self-sufficient nomads, periodically camels, sheep and herded Today, shifting pastures. them to fresh behind “stuck the Anizzah are however, Syria, boundariesthe national of Jordan, THE SOURCE: UNCOWED HERDERS in Conservation, Fall 2012.

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- - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY The privatizationrise of endangers of stronghold is the last great “Africa clothing, and transportation.” Other Other and transportation.” clothing, pasto by or produced gathered goods ralists include gum arabic, honey, milk, milk, honey, ralists include gum arabic, and leather. meat, case as in the of the Oromo, all of that, numbering ethnic group an Ethiopian The cattle-herding 30 million people. of their lost 60 percent have Oromo Some the past 50 years. in pastureland and several of it became park, a national to Dutch- went more thousand acres and The land sugar estates. Indian-owned left overgrazed, is now to the Oromo ariseand conflicts with neighboring the struggle in ethnic groups for space. turned to have Oromo Some crowded or city life—others smuggling, farming, Indeed, group. to a violent secessionist be pushed off their land have nomads primecome recruits for terrorist and Some members criminal organizations. startling in one Tuareg, Africa’s West of groups joined Al Qaeda have example, foreigners in kidnapping and murdering in Mali and other countries. Four-fifths writes: Pearce the commons,” formally “not are of its six billion acres the state.” other than anyone by owned But that hardly the land for its secures Mozam for instance, Take, residents. which recently offered foreign bique, - -

There’s scant evidence of pastoralists There’s contribute hugely to Pastoralists a bad rap. Pastoralists have gotten gotten Pastoralists have inflicting permanent damage on the on the inflicting permanent damage in fact, counters; Pearce environment, they’ve successfully collective managed is the Farming for generations. pastures grass - native under plowing menace, real cattle “in most places, whereas lands, and other animals grazing the grasses as a recent the bush are, and browsing for the International Union report from ‘vital the Conservation put it, of Nature ” for ecosystem health and productivity.’ One-third economies. their countries’ product domestic gross of Mongolia’s one- in Morocco, livestock; from comes the alpaca of the Andes From fourth. to India’s Tibet, in to cashmere goats whose dung is burned in cooking cattle, fuel, “food, grazing animals provide fires, But pastoralists have gotten a bad rap, rap, a bad gotten But pastoralists have environmentalists from says, Pearce in his who, Hardin, such as Garrett Tragedy of the Com 1968 article“The that sharing maintained pas mons,” causes overgrazingtures advocated and private landownership.

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- - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Baron-Cohen says it’s no coincidence says it’s Baron-Cohen support anecdotal as- the for There’s - “sys calls what Baron-Cohen toward “the as whichdefines he temizing,” drive analyze to or construct a system,” whether mechanical (cars or comput as Even (mathematics). ers) or abstract prodigious people are autistic children, They details— obsess about systemizers. putting all the light switches in the for per example—and same position, feats of memorization. form impressive and mathemati engineers, Scientists, this particularcians have mental gift in Baron-Cohen (In a 1998 study, spades. and a colleague found Cambridge that more nine times math students were likely- to be autistic than their counter parts in the humanities.) that autism is especially prevalent among themselves are whose parents children “assortative Through systematic thinkers. systemizing people he believes, mating,” such as mathematicians and engineers tend to find mates with similar abili likely their kids more to leaves This ties. develop autism. with a Children sortative mating theory. who attended the Massachusetts parent 10 times are Technology Institute of likely autism, to have more than average In a study to alumni reports. according Silicon the Netherlands’ of Eindhoven, - - - n “Autism and the Technical Mind” by Simon Baron- Mind” by Simon “Autism and the Technical

Extreme difficulty communicating difficulty communicating Extreme Simon Baron-Cohen, a professor of a professor Simon Baron-Cohen, , Nov. 2012. Cohen, in Scientific American, Nov. prisingautism with patterns children in and the families they from. come and interacting with others is perhaps the most salient trait associated with that affects about a condition autism, People of the population. percent one bias with autism also exhibit a strong developmental psychopathologydevelopmental at the University of Cambridge in England, says the hereditary murky, details remain uncovering sur some are but researchers WHY DO KIDS DEVELOP AUTISM? BEFORE THE AUTISM? BEFORE THE WHY DO KIDS DEVELOP environmental blamed scientists 1980s, particularly- and un inattentive factors, better: they know Now lovingmothers. genetics— with do to lot a has Autism levels. testosterone perhaps, and, DECODING AUTISM THE SOURCE: investors 50-year leases on 15 million million 15 on leases 50-year investors price of nine dol the fire-sale acres—at fight must Herders per year. lars an acre ten- “customary land for laws to protect counterpartsTheir indigenous in ure.” managed corners of the globe have some Cana them are Among that. to do just America’s Sami, Scandinavia’s Inuit, da’s Aborigines. and Australia’s Indians,

IN ESSENCE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY - -

n THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY The role of testosterone makes sense, sense, makes role of testosterone The if it is involved testosterone, “Prenatal how The pattern seems plain enough, ever. “Genes that contribute to autism ever. overlapmay for the uniquely with genes human ability the how to understand world in extraordinary works detail,” “to see beauty in writes, Baron-Cohen technology, in nature, patterns inherent and math.” music, according to Baron-Cohen. After all, After all, to Baron-Cohen. according - com systemizingmore much is “strong he That, women.” in than men in mon the hard men dominate is why argues, in underrepresented sciences but are psychology and medicine. Baron- alone,” is not acting in autism, should not we “And writes. Cohen draw the simplistic conclusion that all technical-mindedcarry people genes for autism.” womb, the stronger the children’s later later the children’s the stronger womb, their at better the systems, in interest their and the higher to detail, tention traitsnumber of associated with autism.” of men and women. Prenatal testosterone levels testosterone Prenatal autism— may help explain worlds and the mental - - - - - But assortative mating doesn’t explain explain But assortative doesn’t mating which is produced Could testosterone, Valley, Baron-Cohen and a colleague and Baron-Cohen Valley, found elementary that schools reported rates nearly of autism higher times three forthan those grade schools in Dutch size. cities of similar Among all of the peculiarities of autism. with the classicchildren form of the dis girls outnumber boys a ratio of by order, a form syndrome, Asperger’s four to one. symptoms, severe of autism with less nine as ratio that as much to stretches Girls autism often with prefer to one. traditionally with toys to play associated Erector trains, Legos, play: with boys’ with “system” other any and almost Sets, girls autistic And suffer a moving parts. high rate of polycystic ovary syndrome, abnormally from high tes- which results levels. tosterone in au a role play males and females, by colleaguea and at Baron-Cohen tism? in Cam Center Research the Autism bridge studied the amniocentesis results to measure women of 235 pregnant devel on impact testosterone’s prenatal is crucial stage be The prenatal opment. average, on cause a male fetus produces, as than twice testosterone much as more researchers found The two a female one. “The more what they expected: had a fetus in the surrounding testosterone

IN ESSENCE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY - - - -

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY This is where the passions of of the passions This is where Wiki A core group of a few group highly thousand A core With fewer articles to be added pedia’s partisans shine through. The The partisans shine through. pedia’s ar history category“good” has 905 away, that But warfare blows ticles. including 56 with 1,937 such articles, devotedthe Austro- of to warships Hungarian Empire. narrow-gauge articles have proliferated; articlesnarrow-gauge proliferated; have Wikipedia four-million passed the mark last year. Wikipedia editors keeps active hum Fifteen administrators, hundred ming. special pow have their peers, elected by are editors of active Ninety percent ers. (Some13 21. under are percent 27 male; only in high school.) are percent already scrutiny of what’s more comes Just 15,000 of the four- been written. million-plus entries the English on ar- Wikipedia“good of version earn the that they meaning classification, ticle” neutral, fully footnoted, accurate, are and illustrated. Number of Wikipedia Number of Wikipedia articles on warships of articles on warships of the Austro-Hungarian the Austro-Hungarian Empire: 56.

- - - - “Military History on the Electronic Frontier: Wikipedia on the Electronic Frontier: Wikipedia “Military History

RCE:

Wikipedia Internet is an impressive the Over a typical in 2012, month The Journal of in The Journal of of 1812” by Richard Jensen, Fights the War Military History, Oct. 2012. WIKIPEDIA IS NOTHING IF NOT THOROUGH. IS NOTHING IF NOT THOROUGH. WIKIPEDIA of 1812. entry the War the on Take self-appointed editors than 2,400 More article. contributed to the 14,000-word Some 627 people spilled 200,000 words’ worth its ex ink arguing over of digital THE SOU THE WIKIPEDIA WAY THE WIKIPEDIA it garnered In April 2012, content. act views.172,000 page is that The problem Wikipe ecosystem. runningdians are out of new material and the to write—and argue—about, number of dedicated editors is dwin a Jensen, to Richard according dling, historyretired and himself an professor avid Wikipedia editor. Wikipedia English-language was the site in Web sixth most frequently visited visi- evennot one Yet States. United the writeto thousand opts a in tor an edit or Wiki terms In productivity, of article. came in 2006 and went heyday pedia’s Unpaid amateurs churned and 2007. out 2,000 articles in the summer per day “by million the time one But of 2006. - tax ingenu it must articles written, are Still, ity new.” to think up something

IN ESSENCE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY - n Encyclopedia Bri- Encyclopedia THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY As encyclopedias go, Wikipedia has As encyclopedias go, On the flip side, side, flip the On ’s entry on the War of 1812 is of 1812 entryWar the on ’s tannica militaryon naval affairs,” and “sketchy to Jensen. according “it is not mature But to maturity. grown In Jensen says. in a scholarly sense,” ways fix to suggests he militaryhistory, access editors such prolific giving as that, scholarship and encour to professional aging them to attend militaryaging them to attend history But such dedicated editors conferences. “The numbers breed. be a vanishing may had have and more keep falling as more on.” and moved their say context. “Social history content is rare, “Social history is rare, content context. Jensen and cultural history even rarer,” “but every little writes Wikipedia, of article.” its own battle gets - - - - The novel-length dispute over the the dispute novel-length The over is that problem Jensen says a broader War of 1812 centered on which side which side on centered of 1812 War or (then a British Canada colony) won: Some that alleged States. the United entrythe American an toward leaned viola a grave of events, interpretation commit rigorous Wikipedia’s of tion ment to the principle Point Neutral of painstak users In response, View. of 13 draftingly of the compared versions a compromise. on They settled article. “In decades the view recent of the ma jority of historians has been that the Wikipedia’s war ended in stalemate,” entry concludes. entries, war-related other like so many of 1812 article bat- on is long War the tlefield details and shorton politics and

IN ESSENCE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY VINCENT YU / AP IMAGES China in Ten China in Ten THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY

Modern China, explains the popular Modern China, you feel like Obama, you can always you feelObama, like you to build architect a Chinese commission Some White an imitation you House. by swear Chinese businessmen wealthy Ovalthe in work sleep and Office them: Bedroom. in the Lincoln is a playground Hua, Yu Chinese novelist outright and theft. mimicry, of imitation, with see anything wrong don’t “We he explains in this Obama,” copycatting his newexcerpt book, from . “With of the party the exception . Words government our current and in power “everybody else can be he adds, leaders,” - Prospect, 2012. Sept. “Copycat China” by Yu Hua, in by Yu “Copycat China”

If a “Blockberry”—or a Nokir, Suny Suny “Blockberry”—orIf a a Nokir, OTHER NA OTHER Welcome to the village of Hallstatt, Guangdong, an exact copy of Hallstatt, to the village of Hallstatt, Guangdong, an exact copy of Hallstatt, Welcome PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA HAS ENDORSED ENDORSED HAS OBAMA BARACK PRESIDENT Or so a knockoffa Chinese cellphone. “Harvard named - Com manufacturer “This is my seems to claim. munications” a Chinese advertise reads Blackberry,” THE SOURCE: NATION OF IMITATORS TIONS ment bearing the American president’s “the Blockberry Whirlwind smiling face, 9500!” or Samsing—fails to make Ericcsun, don’t seem to mind. seem don’t nouveau riche Austria—minus the Alps. China’s

IN ESSENCE OTHER NATIONS - - - - - at a stand outside outside at a stand THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Brothers Copycatting is not without histori without is not - Copycatting (and a Mao land of Mao Will China, Yu sees the trend in journalism, too. too. journalism, in trend the sees Yu ers were alwaysers were state heavily edited by “interviewshe often Now reads censors. the re never given—remarks I have He once porter has simply concocted.” The reporter. an offending confronted “That nonchalant response: journalist’s interview.” was a copycat During Mao cal in China. precedent the Cultural Revolution, Zedong’s the old set Chinese masses wiped away and institutions Party of Communist rigged up revolutionary replacements. or copycat too many “Soon were there to go ganizations and too little power After chaotic infight says. Yu around,” shed their triumphant copycats ing, “official” counterfeit and became roots party leaders. for lurch somehow contest), copycat craze? in spite of the latest copycat ward “The social fabric of China sure. isn’t Yu of mixture bizarre a by shaped is today for the beautiful and the ugly, elements, his apartment. “No, it’s not a pirated a pirated not it’s “No, his apartment. “It’s him. assured the vendor edition,” a copycat.” reportstatements to his Decadesago, - kind of le a strange has acquired itself found a counterfeit copy Yu gitimacy. of his novel

- - - - Copycatting is a good thing when thing when is a good Copycatting With no outlet for political expres it empowers the voiceless. But it’s also also But it’s the voiceless. it empowers bankruptcy “moral symptomatic of the fos of right and confusion and wrong” sion, citizens turn to parody. In a popu- citizens turn to parody. sion, lar Internetsend-up of a government slow news after broadcast Beijing’s milk powdered to the 2008 response a pair of faux anchors straight- scandal, facedly the usual crew explain that after care intensive in is consuming milk. contaminated And rapid change in China. by tered China’s between the tension it reflects closed political system and freewheel find our “We says. Yu ing economy, selves in a reality full of contradictions: Browse radical there.” conservative here, and you’llChinese stores find shanzai and milk, sodas, (“copycat”) cameras, and SurfWeb, the laundry detergents. copycat to stumble upon sure you’re word The TV shows. and pop songs Modern China is a play- Modern China mimicry, ground of imitation, and outright theft. copycatted and ridiculed, imitated and imitated ridiculed, and copycatted at will.” spoofed,

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THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY To do the bulk of their analysis, Gan of their analysis, do the bulk To dhi and Walton split the billionaires into split the billionaires Walton dhi and they made how on based groups two struck group One big it fortunes. their industries such as media, “rent-thick” in mining, estate, real telecommunications, and cement—sectors in which govern oftenment favoritism and other forces extra profits. allow businesses to reap in industries prospered The other group and less govern with sound regulation such as information ment intervention, and outsourcing giant HCL, rose from from rose HCL, giant outsourcing and Only one castes. “backward” and lower Wipro chairman Azim Premji, Muslim, has penetrated the uppermost echelons (Almost 15 per elite. of the business cent of India’s population is Muslim.) is Muslim.) population India’s of cent equals wealth billionaires’ the Overall, gross of the nation’s about 10 percent than twice the more product, domestic of GDP claimedproportion billion by and other South Korea, in China, aires developing countries. The question is whether whether The question is enough India is strong to police its business big shots.

- - - - maga- Forbes Economic and Political Political and Economic n “Where Do India’s Billionaires Get Their Wealth?” Billionaires Get Their Wealth?” “Where Do India’s

The evidence is mixed but troubling. The but troubling. evidence is mixed by Aditi Gandhi and Michael Walton, in Walton, Michael and Gandhi Aditi by Weekly, Oct. 6, 2012. erful breed. There were only two in the only in the were two There erful breed. Entre 46. are there today mid-1990s; INDIAN BILLIONAIRES ARE A NEW AND POW INDIAN BILLIONAIRES ARE the reaping and heirs alike are preneurs - econo burgeoning of India’s rewards a sign of boom Is the billionaire my. or does it business dynamism, healthy cabal is that a tiny suggest of oligarchs taking over? by compiled data Using Gandhi and Mi Aditi economists zine, of the New Delhi–based Walton, chael generated Research, Center for Policy social an overview of Indian billionaires’ Some are and business backgrounds. the caste breaking mold—18 of the 46 mer outside the traditional from come including A small number, chantclasses. the founder of technology Shiv Nadar, THE SOURCE: INDIA’S BILLIONAIRE BOOM the progressive and the backward, the the the backward, and the progressive constantly are serious the ridiculous, and he rubbing each other,” shoulders with “The is phenomenon copycat concludes. progress society’s revealing like this too, regression.” but also its

IN ESSENCE OTHER NATIONS - - n THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Collusion between the state and and the state between Collusion the super-rich rarely ends well. In In the super-rich rarely ends well. argue, Walton and Gandhi East Asia, contributed to the rampant cronyism But crisisfinancial of the mid-1990s. The too: hopeful precedents are there in barons robber of America’s excesses the late 19th century of a wave sparked support for a corrup Popular reform. The crackdown in India. tion abounds is whether the state is strong question busi rent-seeking enough to police its the do the job, If it can’t ness big shots. of a future India will face authors warn, and rising inequality, stunted growth, feeble governance. - - - Walton and Gandhi found while that Walton erated in these sectors. And that share has that share And erated sectors. in these every Not in the past dozengrown years. of course, rent-thick fat cat is crooked, but the potential for corruption is clear. con scandals estate and Massive in real technology and software, finance, finance, technology and software, pharmaceuticals. and manufacturing, pri were only 20 of the 46 billionaires marily industries, in rent-thick involved gen was wealth of billionaire 60 percent and struction captured headlines, have Supreme Court recently forced India’s up licenses to give companies cell phone spectrumfor the the wireless granted by in sweetheartgovernment deals.

IN ESSENCE OTHER NATIONS CURRENT BOOKS REVIEWS OF NEW AND NOTEWORTHY NONFICTION

FAR FROM INVISIBLE ARMIES THE SIGNAL THE TREE By Max Boot AND THE NOISE By Andrew Solomon Reviewed by By Nate Silver Reviewed by Martin Walker Reviewed by Sarah L. Courteau Steven Lagerfeld The Sioux and Apache “Depression is the flaw... tribes of North America... Nate Silver is the new...

TRIUMPHS OF TWO CHEERS EXPERIENCE FOR ANARCHISM By George E. Vaillant By James C. Scott Reviewed by Reviewed by Charles Barber Nick Gillespie

When the psychiatrist... For those of us who...

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013

- THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY terviewed more than 300 families), terviewed than 300 families), more culturalhistoricaland background, a Solomon, research, and scientific in psychiatry journalist and lecturer describesthe at Cornell University, when face steep challenges parents not like they raise who are children He includes chapters on themselves. deaf, who are families with children severely dis- schizophrenic, autistic, categorized as transgendered, abled, syn diagnosed with Down dwarfs, - and con classed as criminals, drome, He even of rape. result as the ceived has a chapter prodigies—focusing on demonstrates the musicians—that on gulf that being extraordinarily gifted childcan between and parent. create While the families on the focus remains By Andrew Solomon Scribner 962 pp. $37.50

- - - Far - Noon The

SARAH L. COURTEAU SARAH L.

In a gargantuan volume that weaves that weaves In a gargantuan volume wrote Andrew Solomon in wrote Andrew his exploration of the day Demon, Book the National disease that won who be creatures “To in 2001. Award who can de be creatures must we love, was Depression lose.” spair at what we experienced - had he personal scourge a was inti- he produced and the book ly, clinical: Solomon claimsmate yet that not a but it’s he can into self-pity, veer the page. in on thing he indulges he has spent the book From , the Tree addresses on, the last decade working dis that isn’t one another vast subject, cussed as often caul as the dark of de about families a book This is pression. in which least in a child is flawed—at In it, of the world. of much the eyes Solomon what has turned expounds on and enduring out to be his great theme: and its costs. love histories personal together (he in- “DEPRESSION IS THE FLAW IN LOVE,” LOVE,” IN FLAW THE IS “DEPRESSION REVIEWED BY TS, CHILDREN, AND AND TS, CHILDREN, PAREN FOR IDENTITY THE SEARCH The ThatTies Bind FROM FAR TREE: THE

FARCURRENT FROM BOOKS THE TREE

- LAURA DWIGHT / CORBIS THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY interrogates) don’t think they could think they could don’t interrogates) The gift less manage. much imagine, sympathyis subjects his Solomongives Solomon encounters not without pity. often but just acceptance celebration of these kids—and the parents among that it defines foran attachment so fierce In bond. parent-child him the universal of children parents support of that bond, health issues, with extraordinary needs, of their own or abilities outside the realm experience to extraordinary go lengths. ac teachers, researchers, They become tivists, nurses, coaches, parole officers, coaches, nurses, tivists, and linguists. They move across the the across They move and linguists.

- - - , to raise , Far From the Tree the From Far The gift Solomon gives readers is giftThe is readers gives Solomon from birth a childfrom that was biologically (The biological mother own. Solomon’s was a surrogate.) with many that situations into insight families (a term he ceaselessly “normal” he interviewed, Solomon frames his Solomon frames his he interviewed, autobiographical with two book chap he describes the alien- In the first, ters. “hor up with the he feltation growing an identity his is, (that izontalidentity” of a gay mother and father did not share) recounts the de The final chapter man. during his husband made, he and cision the writing of “Difference unites us,” Andrew Solomon writes in his work on parents with children children Solomon writes in his work on parents with “Difference unites us,” Andrew or Down parents come to see conditions such as deafness not like themselves. Many syndrome as markers of not illness but identity.

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THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY The stories Solomon tells and the storiesThe Solomon tellsthe and erhaps most difficult erhaps most difficult history illustrate far how recounts he ac scientific understanding and social haps most difficult of all is the lot of of most difficult haps is the lot all appear don’t whose children parents to absorb they the love give. or return se Some multiple or with autism kids can appear emotionally disability vere People who developaffectless. schizo- openly and hostile grow can phrenia even violent familymembers. toward “Emotion is not As Solomon puts it, a child love ev does not who To gratis. a more exacts love your mirror idently love.” terrible other price than disabilities and differ ceptance of many School and programs come. ences have to the needs education centers tailored been foundof autistic learners have support are and advoca there and ed, as autistic cy as well for parents groups people that did not exist until relatively remained devoted to their child. Per devoted child. to their remained P of all is the lot of parents whose children don’t appear to absorb or return the love they give.

------Along the way, many parents are sur- are parents many the way, Along the But Solomon does not sugarcoat country can a bet to children so their go They spend every cent they ter school. afford. they can’t treatments on have commit They They learn language. sign them for with their children to having them to placing equally difficult, or, life, the they can where receive home a in care they need. and resourceful prised at the strength Timid ness they in themselves. discover “won’t transformed are into personalities Nancy advocates. take no for an answer” with children the mother of two Corgi, “My per entire told Solomon, autism, quick to pick I’m sonality has changed. don’t You argumentative. I’m a fight; to do, do what I have to I have me. cross I nev what I want. to get going and I’m Several parents er was like this at all.” who cared for a child with disabilities later diagnosed with cancer or and were another serious disease told Solomon that their child instilled had in them the or fortitude treatment own their to face even death. cost of raising a child with a horizontal relationships, Some couples’ identity. the chal by strengthened are he found, mar A number of his subjects’ lenge. endure able to weren’t however, riages, even parents both when strain, the

FAR FROM THE TREE

- - long ways.’ ” is Tree the From Far THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY There’s a reason reason a There’s mon’s social circle. (He is independent (He is circle. social mon’s theyThis means can afford ly wealthy.) extraordinary to to go financial lengths, hav- Solomonas found, eventhough, is not necessarilying money crucial Icilda achievingto outcome. better a living in the a black woman Brown, as a housecleaner who worked to Bronx one of whom support children, her five now with autism, has learned to live of autistic kids. speaks to other parents now And now. see my son ‘You “I’ll say, running and not talking. kid’s see your your child up, you give If That was him. back, I looked a chance. have doesn’t thank you ‘Oh, and I said to the Lord, for such bringing a me from that long—and than 900 pages more Solomon originally version the his sent The publisher was twice that length. stories he tells moral and the complex he explores and philosophical questions and to tease out, take time and space often he stands aside and lets his sub- A major jects tell the stories themselves. is that what is best theme of the book Solomon best for not be for may all. one are also well to do, a circumstance that circumstance a do, to well also are is perhaps in part Solo of a function “seemed that Brown Solomon remarks condition with her son’s at peace more mother I met.” other than almost any

- - , for which Sesame Street, But there is still a long way to go. A A to go. way is still a long But there The subjects of Solomon’s book are, are, book The subjects of Solomon’s heartbreaking chapter transgendered on kids tells stories at the of utter acceptance same time that it documents instances of Anne O’Hara found that horrific bigotry. live could no longer she and her children in the Southern she community where adopt grew up when her transgendered his mother was a writer, and Lauren and Lauren his mother was a writer, TV series the current a star on Potter, changed social attitudes to- have Glee, syndrome. Down ward recently. Only a few decades ago, parents Only a fewdecades ago, recently. birth gave who Down with babies to hospital the in advised were syndrome immediately their children to have in that their told or were stitutionalized, never learn would speak, to ‘mongoloid’ “ with Down People or talk.” walk, think, including in the public eye, syndrome who in the 1980s was a Kingsley, Jason on guest regular to a female transitioned ed son identity When they “Kelly.” and started by going that Kelly threats wouldbegan receiving O’Hara and her killedbe or mutilated, out of state. moved children to talk to those who agreed of course, they are and as he acknowledges, him, rearing a to whose approach the parents likely is the tree to child who is far from Many and accepting. been positive have

FAR FROM THE TREE - - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Not every parent, of course, will choose of course, everyNot parent, Many of the parents he interviewed he the parents of Many ents do it again? Those questions are par are questions Those ents do it again? ticularly pointed in the case of a disabil- for which ity syndrome, such as Down tests increasingly sophisticated prenatal children Once they have available. are these par- the question with disabilities, they is whether ents face should wish or daughter whom forfor a son a cure they’ve the on and love to accept come barring cure, a terms—or, own child’s cochlewhat interventions merited: are ar implants for the deaf? limb lengthen ing for dwarfs? for hormone treatment children? transgendered to bear and raise a child with differences. abort women fetusesMany diagnosed in Others carry with a disability. the womb the pregnancy to full the termand give But child up to foster care or adoption. and fathers Solo of the mothers many imagine choosing interviewedmon can’t they didn’t glad are options—or those leniency societyto the sends a message and to people parents, to other at large, less are that autistic lives with autism other lives.” valuable than their children that the fact wrestle with as the experiencemay pain and distress it right Was price of their very existence. to bring world? them into the Given these par would what they now, know

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mostly leaves it to individuals, both his mostly it to individuals, leaves to decide how and his subjects, readers one At to draw those lines. and where who chose he describes a woman point, se up her child with multiple to give comment disability foster to vere care, my of “Icreature a enough of am ing, who most the parents times to admire sac brave and made children their kept esteem I nonetheless rifices for them. Julia Hollander for with being honest and for making what all those herself, a choice.” like did look other families a few are when he is direct times There behalf on about the need to intercede After catalog two-page a of child. a of murdered caseshave whichin parents killor attempted to chil their autistic and oth of desperation out some dren, so is doing that conviction a out of ers Solomon balks at the sug altruistic, cases in which are that there gestion “Courtroom mercy killing is justified: Many of the parents he he parents of the Many wrestle with interviewed that their children the fact and pain may experience of as the price distress their very existence.

FAR FROM THE TREE is literary editor of

n THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Solomon ju- chapter ends his on SARAH L. COURTEAU The Wilson Quarterly. venile criminals with Sue Klebold’s criminalsvenile Sue with Klebold’s “When used I words: happened, it first children, never had I had to wish that and Tom If never married. that I had State, paths at Ohio crossed I hadn’t this and existed have Dylanwouldn’t happened. have terrible thing wouldn’t to feel come that, I’ve time, But over kids and I had I am glad for myself, because the kids I did, the I had glad for love them—even pricethe at this of joy single greatest pain—has been the speak- am I When that, say I life. my of and not of the pain pain, ing of my own my own But I accept of other people. and this is life is full of suffering, pain; been better have it would I know mine. for the world if Dylan never been had not have But I believe it would born. been better for me.” - - Unlike many of the parents in Soloin parents the of - many Unlike have them at the moment of decision. of decision. moment at the them have “Most are believe of us children that our could we to have; had we the children Solomon concludes. others,” no had have “They will never be hap to seem to us because them love we they are penstance; flawed, when they are Even our destiny. they die—even then, hurt us, do wrong, partare which of the rightness we by theyand bring tous life itself, measure life as profoundly do them.” as we and Sue Klebold didn’t Tom book, mon’s Dylan’s the time of their son from know “identity”—thatbirth about the of a and suicidal criminal—that homicidal eventually would separate them from Dylan Klebold of was one him forever. men who shot 13 people young the two Schooldeath at Columbine High to in Solo But like the other parents 1999. the Klebolds have interviewed, mon grappled emotional with the complex and moral calculus brought of having their child into the world.

FAR FROM THE TREE

- - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY study of guerrilla war that he stresses study of guerrilla war that he stresses historythe venerable of this style of ac Thucydides’s starting with fighting, highlanders Aetolian the count of how used their maneuverability and knowl of the localedge terrain to defeat the As soon in 426 BC. hoplites of Athens as organizedto form states began and equip themselvesto with disciplined enemies by opposed they were armies, Boot writes, fighting in an older style. long “Throughout species’ our of most warfare has been . . and bloody slog . carried out primarily bands of loosely by lightly armed ill-disciplined, organized, disdain open battle. who volunteers surprise, stealth, They to employ prefer ambush, rapidand harass, to movement massacre, and terrorize their enemies massacre, By Max Boot Liveright 750 pp. $35

- - - - - MARTIN WALKER MARTIN WALKER

It is the great merit of Max Boot’s merit It is the great of Max Boot’s lished the United States. Like the Viet Like the lished the United States. the Spanish who frus irregulars - Cong, the Afghan and tribes trated Napoleon, men who defeated the Soviet army and and NATO to challengecontinue U.S. guer they were day, in our own forces from comes “guerrilla” word The rillas. used to “littlethe Spanish for war,” 1808 uprising against describe Spain’s of but such a way troops, Napoleon’s fighting is as old as human civilization Guerrilla warfare is a rational re itself. sponse to overwhelming and organized can which the weak the means by force, the and overcome down, wear frustrate, they whether be British troops strong, French at Lexington and Concord, and later American in the Me troops Wehrmacht or Hitler’s Delta, kong in Yugoslavia. THE SIOUX AND APACHE TRIBES OF NORTH TRIBES OF NORTH THE SIOUX AND APACHE in America profound something had estab who colonists with the common REVIEWED BY AN EPIC HISTORY OF GUERRILLA OF GUERRILLA HISTORY AN EPIC FROM ANCIENT TIMES WARFARE TO THE PRESENT David and Goliath ARMIES:INVISIBLE

INVISIBLECURRENT BOOKSARMIES

------Armies are large large Armies are - the nomad preferred was that ic existence their grasssuited to When land steppes. emperor Persian the Dariusthat demanded theyand fight, stand the Scythian leader Idanthyrsus replied, Scythians“We have nor cul- neither towns which tivated lands, us, might induce fear of their through being taken or rav hur to be in any aged, . . . ryyou. to fight with shall not join bat We tle unless it pleases us.” organi- complex and trainingwith zations, THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY sary skills and doctrine time to prevail in the turn At forces. unconventional over the British eventu of the last century, ally defeated the Boers of South Afri brilliant guerillas of Dutchca, descent the Cape north trekked from who had academies for officers and their own academies for own officers and their and logistics judicial, financial, medical, services; usually and theyare designed to fight other armies of similar type. Sometimes armies develop the neces This does not necessarily not does This imply that the guerrilla is a primitive. The surviv- the guerrilla is a primitive. artworking gold of the Scythiansthe of sixth century BC demonstrates that they people who sophisticated a were while tryingwhile minimizeto own their when casualties rapid retreat through forces. equal or stronger by confronted the primaryThese are both of features modernguerrilla primi of and warfare - warfare.” pre-state tive, THE GRANGER COLLECTION, NYC the operated in American guerilla Francis Marion, the “Swamp Fox,” engraving, 19th-century this in depicted as Carolina, South of wilds War. to help defeat the British during the Revolutionary

INVISIBLE ARMIES - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Professional militaryProfessional usually men to the decision a political leader, For find such calculations difficult to make. suchfind to make. difficult calculations trained to applyTheyac are and force to achieve cept casualties mili in order merit A great of democratic tary victory. can is that the politicians government overrule apply the generals and political to the overallconsiderations strategy, Nixon Richard whichPresident what is the American reducing Vietnam, did in in the draining and conflict investment to swallow leaving another president when Saigon finally fell. defeat in 1975, to Sometimes find it hard the politicians president French the soldiers. persuade Charles with a de Gaulle was confronted military ter coup and then a prolonged the Organisationrorist campaign de by paramilitary a French l’ArméeSécrète, causethe up on of gave he when group, Algeria in 1961. French to down pursue or to end a war comes Can the politicala cost-benefit analysis: price of military defeat In be afforded? prestige when little save wars of choice, at and moderate are strategic advantage price the is often worth payingif stake, is sufficientlythe opponent determined and costs inflicting keep to casualties. to understand this, tend Opponents not simply is and their target the enemy This was but their politicalforces will. - - - - - Given the extraordinary range of the extraordinaryGiven range of experienceBritish accu the Empire mulated in fighting various guerrilla various in fighting guerrilla mulated a bet armies have Britain’s campaigns, But their leaders than most. ter record as in Palestine, could still be convinced, that the possibility was too of success to justify the and too expensive remote hav The administration, Obama effort. decadea of of revieweding results the a similar ap made seems to have war, Afghan praisal campaign. of the current Colony in a vain attempt to escapeto attempt vain a in Brit Colony - able to were British And troops ish rule. quell a mainly communist Chinese and But insurgency in the 1950s. in Malaya - they in Pal Jewish lost to the irregulars and spent 30 grim 1940s, estine in the after the Repub years 1968 convincing demo- that licansNorthernof Ireland be preferable to cratic politics would urbancontinued guerrilla warfare. military defeat be afforded? Can the political price of Can the political price of a cost-benefit analysis: a cost-benefit analysis: end a war comes down to down to end a war comes decision to pursue or to or to decision to pursue al leader, the the For a political leader,

INVISIBLE ARMIES

------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Marion, a guerrilla who had of genius Marion, is that in or contradiction Another lina swamps. Directed by South - by Caro Directed swamps. lina Rutledge to target John lina governor the Brit joined escapedwho had slaves Marion for freedom, ish in return their who slaves to execute was also ordered helped the Britishhad with supplies or that It is worth recording intelligence. ran slaves own of Marion’s at least one a detail to fight the British, away for Holly the hagiographic from excised in which Patriot (2000), The film wood Melcharacter was based in part Gibson’s the guerril der to achieve full success, la usually has to build a conventional at least find an allied or army for army, North It was battles. decisive the final, Vietnamese Saigon, who took regulars French and regular Vietnot the Cong, Americanand the forced who forces in 1781, Yorktown British at surrender who troops Wellington’s just as it was finally Napole ejected from Spain the by been shredded armiesonic that had of guerrillasix years war. will. The line between a guerrilla between The line a and will. canterrorist one. be a fine learned fighting the Cherokees, his trade at- raided British Loyalist and outposts, and eluded tacked supply their trains, to the fleeing capture by South Caro Marion. on - - For the guerrillas, the stakes are usu- the stakes are the guerrillas, For ally for than they their higher much are The guerillasfighting wars are enemies. against of necessity rather than of choice, in- or domination heretical) (or foreign a wore Fox The Swamp tolerable rule. leather hat with a silver plate engraved But “Libertywith the motto or Death.” to guerrilla inherent contradiction one guer to survive, warfare is that in order how Vietnamese how revolutionary leader and fought Minh Ho Chi French the George how It was also the Americans. Val the winter at endured Washington help with on, going before ley Forge, the American guerrillafrom Francis to as the Swamp known Fox, Marion, Britishthe outlast continue to resolve (Boot makes the neat point that the war. its first made opinion” “public the term in the works appearancetime, this at As Boot Gibbon. of historian Edward parliamentary- govern “A comments, did that war a prosecute not could ment popular backing.”) not enjoy rillas usually to impose at least have a leveland of discipline as draconian The do. punishment as their opponents guerrilla quarter cannot to give afford to atrocities and deserters; or spies, traitors, and their civilian against enemy troops sympathizers in waging common are morale and political the enemy’s on war

INVISIBLE ARMIES - - - - - The Savage THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY , after an exhaustive Armies Invisible , Boot made his name with Boot made (2002), an accomplished an accomplished (2002), of Peace Wars small wars that history of America’s for of advice him a useful source made American and Afghan generals in Iraq imo with “a picked force of 55 soldiers, picked of 55 soldiers, force “a imo with scouts” and 29 Apache packers, 30 mule operations of the most arduous “one after Army.” in the history of the U.S. istan. briskbut smallthe canter throughout brilliantly sums up the wars of history, Guerrilla war- of the centuries. lessons since the fighters’ is deeplyfare political, lack of formal organization means they for civilians foodon depend intelli and a strabecome - The civilians thus gence. also and wooed battle, the in factor tegic and sometimes both sides, by targeted the battlefield altogeth from removed the Brit when War, as in the Boer er, finallyish were able to defeat the Boer and their wives removing farmers by As the camps. families to concentration casesRepublicanof the Irish Army and as the Basque separatist known force guerillas can sometimes show, the ETA be bought off with political concessions. does not simply But the conflict hinge winning the heartson and minds of the local trackers and renegades. Boot notes Boot local trackers renegades. and finally Miles 1886 Generalthat in Nelson fighter Geron the Apache hunted down - -

The lesson of the endless the of lesson The examples And a hazard of guerrilla a hazard And is fighting Boot cites is that guerrillascan be mili- army is if a conventional tarily defeated, guerrilla to go and formitself prepared fast-moving units for hunting small, often with the help of the enemy, down stroy warplanes at their bases, a trick the warplanes at their bases, stroy Islands Falkland the in Britishrepeated the onlycountry Britain wasn’t in 1982. II: War World during suchuse to tactics The Red Army a conventional fought while parti Wehrmacht war against the sans behind German lines attacked the railways which on bases logistics and the Germans depended. that organizedthat armies can themselves for as was done, exploit guerrilla tactics, when II, War World during example, Long Range Desert Group Britain’s deep behind troops sent commando Germanlines in North Africa to de Guerrilla warfare is Guerrilla warfare is deeply political, since the fighters’ lack of formal organization means they organization means they depend on civilians for food and intelligence.

INVISIBLE ARMIES

- - - is a senior scholar at the a senior scholar at the is

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY n - Iraq to its experienceThanks against MARTIN WALKER Woodrow Wilson Center. His new novel, The His new novel, Wilson Center. Woodrow will be published later this year. Devil’s, Cave is and Afghans, and to the wisdom of the wisdom and to Afghans, is and soldiers suchthoughtful as General Da driving (who was the force vid Petraeus Army/ excellent newbehind the U.S. Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field be well the Army should now Manual), guerrillaequipped to wage warfare and civil-militaryto pursue the joint oper Ironically, require. such conflicts ations just as Americanit is seeking to do so withdraw on - politicians appear intent The public seems Afghanistan. ing from quite enough of such had distant to have and the rise of a strategic peer fights, focusing is China in U.S. competitor military back convention attention on An be a mistake. This may al strategies. army oftena war fighting itself finds for since that which prepared, it is not well intelligent an war of preciselykind is the if there And enemy will choose to wage. the hit-and-run where and arena is one clandestineguerrillathe of tactics seem it is the electronic likely in the future, The swamps and jungles of cyberspace. be armed may with next Swamp Fox a laptop. a laptop.

- - - Guerrillas fought be tactically must on their own terms, hunted down, de hunted down, terms, own their on - guer the whom localfrom population Just as rillas drawsupport. and fighters important people’s is the state of the physical security assessment and their of which is likely side to prevail. to and forced nied bases and support, (or kill)keep moving and to abandon however, Strategically, their wounded. the politics of fought they through are The Brit localeffective administration. because Malaya in they took ish won their the landless from Chinese laborers shantytowns and installed them in well- Villages” “New run and well-guarded with medicalservices and sanitation, the Chinese an arrangement that made dailyto the amenable that en searches no ricethat smuggled was being sured The British dried to the guerrillas. out up the sea in which the guerrillas swam, guerrilla-styleeven as their own troops one bands relentlessly, the hunted down When the Americans tried to do one. by their good the same in SouthVietnam, frustrated corrupt lo- by were intentions cal that stole funds and administrations labor bribesand extracted supplies or free “strategic hamlets” The occupants. from became un- forces U.S. by off cordoned pleasant for their inhabitants and thus counterproductive.

INVISIBLE ARMIES

- - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY In modern times, the human preoc the modernIn times, cupation with the future has become has become future with the cupation Our revolve lives a near obsession. about what will questions hap around When will terrorists pen tomorrow: strike America will severe next? How the effects of climate be? change I Will are We savings? my retirement outlive fore but flawed honest by bombarded casts designed chiefly as ones as well lullor scare certainto into us cours- fame is deserved, Silver’s es of action. but picking winners is a rela election What makes him tively trivial business. first the special is that he is probably celebrity not only us to help prophet more often than we think. Before Before oftenmore think. than we Silver, Warren Buffett was the prophet Buffett was the prophet Warren Silver, of the hour. By Nate Silver Penguin Press 534 pp. $27.95

- , in ,

The Signal and the Noise The Signal and the STEVEN LAGERFELD

Throughout human history, people people human history, Throughout The New The author of The New punditocracy. widely FiveThir followed - Times’ York the he correctly predicted tyEight blog, in all 50 vote winner of the presidential - re impressive already his besting states, calls of 49 correct in the 2008 elec cord But what if Silver been wrong? had tion. be surprised to The last person probably is That Silver been have would himself. makes what which he surveys methods of prediction to ’em hold Texas in everything from such a useful and global climate change, important book. ascribedhave special and sometimes qualities to those who seem sacred the Oracle from able to see the future, to Nassim Greece in ancient at Delphi PhD-holding the derivatives Taleb, trader who famously warned right financial crisis that the recent before events occur “black unforeseen swan”

NATE SILVER IS THE NEW TOAST OF THE IS THE NEW TOAST OF THE SILVER NATE AND THE NOISE: THE NOISE: AND REVIEWED BY WHY SO MANY PREDICTIONS MANY PREDICTIONS WHY SO SOME DON’T FAIL—BUT Don’t Bet on It Bet Don’t THE SIGNAL

THECURRENT SIGNAL BOOKS AND THE NOISE - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Even as he was working on PECO on working as he was Even TA, Silver slid into the world of pro TA, quickly making his fessional gambling, Play Series of Poker. World to the way abil- a prodigious at that level requires ity the fly, on to calculate probabilities and Silver- pros with other skills, along After a string of losses, for a time. pered in 2007, poker he abandoned however, book: Data crunching is not enough; Data crunching is not enough; book: is no substitute for experience there and judgment. Weather prediction has come a long way since 1942, Weather student learned City high school when this New York to use a weather vane in his meteorology class. LIBRARY OF CONGRESS LIBRARY

------PECO (2003). That has something to do with his with his to do something That has think more intelligently about the intelligently more think the about is to caution but there that future very can it about we that know little with certainty. After an undergrad getting life story. the Uni at in economics degree uate Silver in worked versityChicago, of the early inter 2000s as a low-level turning before tax consultant national his talents to baseball (his childhood and developing PECOTA passion) (Player EmpiricalComparison and a sta- Algorithm), Test Optimization tistical to predict database designed was His interest performance. players’ the success of the Oakland by sparked statistically under the Athletics mind Billy ed general manager Beane—a tale journalistlater chronicled Michael by Lewis in Moneyball was successful—Silver later sold it TA to another firm that sells forecasts to baseball teams and oth professional ers—but it was also frequently wrong. Looking at the end back six years over Silver foundhis system that of 2011, good number of minor identified a had to success on who went league players also been but it had in the big leagues, outperformed system a competing by a is It reports. scouting emphasizing the throughout that he repeats lesson

THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE

------The Wall Wall The THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY The Signal and the Noise Silver’s methods involve taking huge taking huge methods involve Silver’s Most of Most is not concerned with Silver’s work work is not concerned with Silver’s and poker from but with other fields, and climatechess to economic predic tion, in which Bayesian principles can whichin Bayesian tion, off Climate modelers come be applied. though Sil pretty in this light, well still sur are says their predictions ver high levels of uncertainty. by rounded Social scientists take perhaps the big for exam Late in 2007, drubbing. gest surveyed economists by ple, Street Journal was only a 38 said there the next in chance recession of percent later reveal, as data would In fact, year. the economy had already slid into slid into already had the economy a downturn. next time you hear some bold forecast bold hear some time you next Americanof coming the about energy or the sizeindependence of the federal years. deficit in 10 budget government’s amounts of data—in the case of the of data—in the caseamounts the of mostly state-lev election, presidential el political polls—and and averaging them for demographic and adjusting using techniques based other factors the principleson of the 18th-centu Bayes. Thomas ry English statistician probability theoryBayesian us requires about the future to make our best guess and then continually get revise it as we new information. new information. - - - - That is not the kind of autobiograph concluding that the competition had concluding had that the competition his improved not stiffened had and he game in the “My years methods. own role the about deal great a me taught that chance and the plays in our lives seek we it can when delusions produce the worldunderstand to its predict and course,” he writes. ical lesson we are likely to hear from the likely are ical to hear from we lesson the political on talk shows soothsayers key Silver’s sites. Web and stock market termsin think to need of we that is point rather than comfortingprobabilities cer FiveThirtyEight His prognos tainties. name derives from tications (the blog’s - in a pres the number of electoral votes always in are idential election) expressed various At times during thethese terms: Silver put Barack Obama’s last election, chances as 59 percent of winning as low as 91 eve the of the vote) and as high (on That made the predic clear that percent. even a could be wrong—sometimes tion Remember that the full house can lose. Silver’s key point is that is that Silver’s key point in terms we need to think rather than of probabilities comforting certainties.

THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE

n - - - The is editor of The

. THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY “We just aren’t that good at predic that good just aren’t “We Wilson Quarterly STEVEN LAGERFELD tion,” Silver writes. It is an unexpected It is Silver writes. tion,” a and important to hear from message a is Prediction certified celebrity seer. need We necessary but peril-ridden art. own ability in our to be less confident to and more he argues, corners, see around Those are claims. skeptical of others’ this that give lessons the many among a verybook high signal-to-noise ratio. tacks before they occurred, for example, for example, tacks they before occurred, but defense and intelligence officials possibilitythe dismissed of already had attacks such suicide bomb on a scale by such imagine They simply couldn’t ers. separating the “signal” from the “noise.” “noise.” the from “signal” separating the “The the truth. signal is SilverAs puts it, the from is what distracts us The noise is however, Finding the signal, truth.” better not merely of creating a matter were could that clues There techniques. alertedhave 9/11 terrorist at us to the a thing.

- - - Good predictions have two main main two have Good predictions One surpriseOne predic in the winner tion sweepstakes is weather forecasting, forecasting, is weather sweepstakes tion which- has measurably in re improved the National 1980s, In the cent decades. with- predict Hurricane Center couldn’t make a stormwould where in 100 miles but advance, in than a day landfall more been able have because researchers now, to build sophisticated models of how it can do so three storm systems behave, ar- giving people in threatened days out, When the to evacuate. time eas precious Service is says there Weather National actuallyit chance rain, of percent 20 a of the time. does rain 20 percent that pro lots of data are There sources. which allows plentyvide feedback, of forecasters to constantly check- and ad And just their models against reality. understand- solid reasonably a is there the underlyinging of how sys weather a dreadful do Economists tem works. job because mountains of data they have the lacking model of how a good but, put to under- hard are works, economy difficultyTheyhave stand what it means.

THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE - - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Over the last 70 years, Harvard sci Overlast 70 years, the entists have checkedentists have the members in on and intervals, at regular of the group virtualusing them prodded - and poked ly every psychological and physiological The sheer amount of data instrument. most of it collected by is astonishing, “Some men came to himself. Vaillant members of the classes of 1942, ’43, and ’43, members of the classes of 1942, inherited the proj Vaillant in 1938. ’44, it for 30 over directed ect in the 1960s, and remains beginning in 1972, years criteria Exact for selec a co-director. obscure—the remain to the study tion declinedoriginal investigators Norman in but Mailer and Leonard Bernstein, Sixty-eight Kennedy. cluded F. John in now members of the original cohort, still living. are their nineties, By George E. Vaillant Harvard Univ. 457 pp. $27.95

- - -

Triumphs Triumphs

CHARLES BARBER

Drawing upon the resilience that Drawing that the resilience upon graphs the activities of classmatesof activities the graphs who Young their late forties. then in by were foundtwistingGeorge the narratives obses them over and pored fascinating, veryThe must arrival of this book sively. been extremelydifficult have for him, a father, George’s as a few earlier, years privileged and successful man with no had distress, or overtdepression signs of fatally af shot himself in his backyard was old, 10 years then George, ter a nap. the last to see his father alive. characterizesthe themes of for has presided Vaillant of Experience, decades ultimate the the last five over the Grant Study. class book, reunion variety-store the afterNamed its patron, the study began Grant, T. W. magnate most tracking 268 Harvard students, WHEN THE PSYCHIATRIST GEORGE VAILLANT GEORGE VAILLANT WHEN THE PSYCHIATRIST in the mail he received was a teenager, 25th Harvard class his father’s reunion which short detailed in para book, REVIEWED BY TRIUMPHS OF OF TRIUMPHS OF THE HARVARD THE MEN Work and Love Work : EXPERIENCE GRANT STUDY

TRIUMPHSCURRENT BOOKS OF EXPERIENCE

- - - - THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Extensive quantitative findings are findings are quantitative Extensive lant masterfully chronicles their life how with correlate or lack thereof, successes, mar of their childhoods, the nature physical health, mental health, riages, Vail Here changed. or tails expunged literary that his skills are lant proves ly bring material the quantitative to life. along who of course has aged Vaillant, includes scenes from with his subjects, substance abuse, and attitudes. and attitudes. substance abuse, interspersed with the detailed stories under of individual study participants, and with identifying de pseudonym, The case historiesare as scientific. as well capsulesengaging novelistic that artful - - - - (1977) elegantly sum (2002)—which provide Aging Well Triumphs of Experience Triumphs Cambridge . . . but in most cases I went . . Cambridge . London, Canada, them—to Hawaii, to who writesVaillant, New Zealand,” 78. himself is now marizes the findings of this vast longi unique in the annals of re tudinal study, (Sustaining the funding for it has search. has Vaillant feat.) also been a herculean written about the previous books two Life Grant to Study—Adaptation and earlier at lives the men’s snapshots of analyzes book latest This how stages. their late adulthood, over the men fared Vail In it, lives. and indeed their entire JOSE LUIS PELAEZ / GETTY IMAGES are the key to a happy—and healthy—life.Intimate friendships and relationships

TRIUMPHS OF EXPERIENCE -

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Vaillant provides compelling evidence provides Vaillant The other overarching message of this message other The overarching that many individuals—by no means no means individuals—by that many all—can write (or rewrite) their own Scott Fitzgerald’s F. disproving scripts, in acts no second are maxim that there book is that resilience counts. Men with Men counts. is that resilience book defense mechanisms— the most mature sublimation humor, altruism, defined as gratifying(finding to frus alternatives (being anticipation anger), tration and and challenges), about future realistic “keeping a stiff upper (yes, suppression likely times more to three lip”)—were men Furthermore, flourish in later life. defensemechanisms good with were developing by able to alter their paths the capacity for warmth emotional and others despite difficult to connection upbringings setbacks. or individual Men with good defense Men with good defense mechanisms were able developing the capacity for emotional warmth others and connection to despite difficult upbringings or individual setbacks. to alter their paths by to alter their paths by

------The study, a product of the period in a product The study, his own development, honest stories honest that development, his own struggle both involve and maturation. its limita has which conceived, it was priv white, Its only subjects are tions. its findings of many Still, men. ileged If they boiled could be seem universal. it would to a single revelation, down life is re to a happy be that the secret relationships. relationships, lationships, and adult success of The best predictors a childhood in which one are well-being an empath feels and nurtured; accepted ic coping style 35; 20 through at ages Regard and warm relationships. adult 10 Vaillant’s one of just ing finances, men who well-being, of adult measures when sibling relationships good had per $51,000 of an average made young with poor sibling than those more year and all, or no siblings at relationships warmmen who had mothers earned annually$87,000 more than those who re Overall, did not (in 2009 dollars). the Grant Men flecting their privilege, on go The findings a lot of money. made relent message and the like that, and on to lifegood is The secret lessly emerges: and enduring intimate relationships as Sig- Mental health, and friendships. and Erik Erikson indicated, Freud mund the capacityis embodied by to love and to work.

TRIUMPHS OF EXPERIENCE

- n , he has turned , - in psychi is a lecturer

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY - a psychi thing: is that rare Vaillant atry at the Yale School and of Medicine Yale at the atry Institute for of the Connection director Innovative dedicated to the study Practice, from of people recovering of the narratives He is the author of Comfort- mental illness. Psychiatry How Is Medicating a Numb: ably (2008). Nation CHARLES BARBER ishing than in mental illness. With ishing than in mental illness. “healing arts” have often been neglected. often have neglected. been “healing arts” of professor a Rita Charon, In response, highly a has created in- clinical medicine, medicine in narrative program fluential medical school, University’s at Columbia to the the value of listening on predicated past fallThis I taught stories of patients. of illness the narratives anda course on The University. recoveryWesleyan at neuroscience up to their ears in students, get couldn’t and psychological science, nar- first-person real-life the of enough suffering mental of people ratives from of allThe point this is illness and trauma. but to learn in the illnesses, not to revel health. what constitutes in mental flour atrist interested more of Experience Triumphs the Harvard men’s disparate stories into the Harvard men’s a field and created a single narrative to practical both and profound, guide, life. a good to lead how

- - - - - , a 2001 , There is a small vital but There call in medi Resilience plays out at a physiological cine and psychiatry greater much to pay as a means heed to the stories of patients, and guiding care. of building empathy has of medicine, like so much Psychiatry, been overrun technologies and phar by this over excitement the In macologies. old-fashioned the progress, supposed level too, of course. Vaillant found that Vaillant of course. level too, not smoking, weight, maintaining a healthy blood and controlling not drinking much, all 50 made the differ- age before pressure ence in the health of the men at 80 and 90. the seem to lay relationships too, But here, reviewed a Vaillant In 1978, groundwork. at been healthy subset of the men who had old. about 55 years now they were 40; age childbleakest the had had who those Of or chron dead were 35 percent hoods, to only 11 percent as compared ically ill, of those with the warmest childhoods. American lives. Other of quite studies American lives. arrived at sim have populations different In Making Good ilar conclusions. the criminal offenders, study of hardcore criminologistShadd Maruna documents who learnedthat those desist from to vastly crime measures on higher scored life) of your of self-agency (taking control and generativity (being able to respond events)positively than those to negative their criminalwho continued careers.

TRIUMPHS OF EXPERIENCE

------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY ” (emphasis in the original). in the original). (emphasis ” cooperation without hierarchy hierarchy without cooperation , James James Cheers for Anarchism, Two In even French president François Mit François president even French ultimately sold a Socialist, terrand, Iron The industries. off state-owned final rusted out for decades, Curtain, literal ly the early collapsed by 1990s, ly incapable of keeping its repressive, soul-killing together. act than more Scott channels Proudhon C. punk while making a case for a kinder, than the sort form gentler rebellion of rev street-fighting of bomb-throwing, typicallyolution associated with anar Proud Pierre-Joseph Following chism. theorist the 19th-century French hon, is theft,” “property who asserted that - “mu Scott loosely defines anarchism as or tuality, or state rule or state By James C. Scott Press Princeton Univ. 169 pp. $24.95

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NICK GILLESPIE

1970s as a time of lifestylea time 1970s as liberation “an word the malaise, and economic was nothing less than a punk archy” cry and an existential of affirmation “Ianti-Christ/I an am callaction. to snarled Rot Johnny anarchist,” an am in one ten of the Sex Pistols in 1976, rhyme schemes forced of the great of “Anarchy song the band’s Yet alltime. general punk more in the U.K.”—and not a collapsely—presaged of British civiliza or AmericanWestern or even in revolution but a do-it-yourself tion, and consumption cultural production centralized au top-down, that rejected Not thority and hidebound tradition. decentraliza economic coincidentally, Jimmy too—President place took tion Carter airline deregulated pricing and British prime interstate trucking rates, Thatcher loosened minister Margaret and business, on controls government FOR THOSE OF US WHO REMEMBER THE REMEMBER THE FOR THOSE OF US WHO REVIEWED BY SIX EASY PIECES ON AUTONOMY, PIECES ON AUTONOMY, SIX EASY WORK AND MEANINGFUL DIGNITY, AND PLAY Mere Anarchy CHEERS TWO : FOR ANARCHISM

TWOCURRENT CHEERS BOOKS FOR ANARCHISM

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY For Scott, anarchy is less a full-blown is less a anarchy Scott, For rule by elites of any and all stripes, and allrule elites of any stripes, by program than a tendencya than program privilegesthat and shows and debate” conflict, “politics, and “tolerance for confusion a robust social accompanies that improvisation of a rejection it’s Most of all, learning.” - - His rejection of “a comprehensive an- comprehensive “a of rejection His is worldviewarchist and philosophy” in the structure of the book, mirrored “frag which of what he terms consists rather chapters, than traditional ments” the provision the better to underscore ality scope of his insights. and narrow FK PHOTO / CORBIS and other members of the petite bourgeoisie, The anarchist spirit can be found in the lives of shopkeepers trade the security of a salaried job for autonomy. who, like this fly-fishing store owner,

TWO CHEERS FOR ANARCHISM

- - - Monument THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY For Scott, such acts of “insubordina of such acts Scott, For in the Netherlands, and the refusal and the refusal in the Netherlands, tion” are exemplary are because they bring tion” everydayin our the to paradoxes lives a new and push us toward foreground understanding of the typically latent forces and economic political, cultural, Other actuallythat structure lives. our examples of everyday- rebel anarchist the re includelion slowdowns, work some localities by moval of traffic signs to the Unknown Deserters of Both World the UnknownWorld Deserters ofto Both in East Germany, cities around Wars an unauthorizedcreating that display inevitably of local raised officials. the ire ‘This is for the legend, The statue “bore killto fellowhis refused who man the magnif Scott“a calls the statue ” man.’ 1990. The activists, Scott writes, hauled Scott writes, activists, The 1990. calleda papier-mâché statue this contrarian gesture, icent anarchist theme universal the well-nigh on play Soldier: the obscure, of the Unknown fellwho honorably ‘every-infantryman’ objectives.” in battle for his nation’s Scott recognizes that total that total recognizes Scott to often leads revolution what worse than something it replaces. ------thus echoes (1998). That work ana work That (1998). Seeing Like a State: How Certain How Seeing Like a State: Scott uses what he engagingly calls Scott recognizes total revolution that lyzed from disaster routinely results how society- grand plans to remake accord unified field or elite’s leader ing to some This theorythe world of how should be. people work little the how explores book the grand them. imposed on plan around to find all sorts squint” “anarchist his of generally minirev- unacknowledged These range us. olts happening around sidewalks off the puny—stepping from signs—to the walk” “don’t in defiance of describeshe an instance, For profound. West in anarchists by art created project Germany shortly it was reuni before counterpart communist its with fied in especially them to remove who seek those claiming scrutiny by selves sort from some scientific basis their for of impersonal rule. than oftenworse something to leads “Virtually every replaces. it what major creating ended by revolution successful it than the one powerful a state more in turn a state that was able overthrew, and exer from resources to extract more very the over control cise more popula he writes. it was designed to serve,” tions Cheers forAnarchism Two in Scott’s previous books, themes from cluding Condi Improve the Human to Schemes Failed tion Have

TWO CHEERS FOR ANARCHISM

------THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Whileof K–12 90 percent around Scottrightly castigates na- the tory in the 19th century, has always been tory in the 19th century, (Go ask Mark a crucible of conformity. What and LauraWilder.) Ingalls Twain in a “insubordinate” is actually new and that Scotttheway is should appreciate rise the past several over - decades of a ro bust school choice that cuts movement existing partisan politicalacross lines, evenand divides, economic and racial between distinctions long-standing public and private education. public students still attend conventional ing not even the last war but one severaling not even one the last war but interested He seems less wars removed. elites in the pri of at the role in looking sectors in precipitating vate and public crisisthe housing than of a few ago years “mar and with Enron in settling a score that seeks In a book ket fundamentalists.” islittle celebrateto participatory culture, said about the rise com personal of the puter and the Internet—and the vast de expression, centralizationknowledge, of helped bringthey have about. and power “a school K–12 public system as tion’s and laments the factory” ‘one-product’ centralization of curricula and expec But in an American context, tations. manda at least since it was made school, dialogue about what might . . . represent represent . . . what might about dialogue ScottBut be fight to seems progress.”

- - Two Cheers for Two There’s nothing wrong with nothing wrong Scott’s There’s Yet there’s a curious and palpable sense there’s Yet McDonalds for its “Fordist production.” “Fordist forMcDonalds its analysisViet of Robert and McNamara infernal audit nam-era body counts—“an blocked a wider-ranging . . system that . as if their insights were brand-new. brand-new. as if their insights were verythink would one Scott, Reading changed since Schumacher’s had little Small Is if Economics as People Beautiful: In a in 1973. the scene burst on Mattered worldincreasinglyartisanalis that when - and prepara to foodit comes production and everything lifestyle, else, culture, tion, Scott quotes Schumacher to denounce . References to high-1960s high-1960s to References Anarchism. Antonio theoristssuch Jacobs, Jane as Schumacher abound F. and E. Gramsci, of datedness to much of of datedness to much of some K–12 students in Massachu students K–12 of some to take elsewhere and Michigan, setts, achievement in the tests implemented Child Left No wake of the Behind Act goes, is allThis fine as far as it of 2001. verythink I and even with few readers history of knowledge a passing would conclusionargue with Scott’s large that emancipatory“the great gains for hu- of not been the result have man freedom but of procedures institutional orderly, spontaneous unpredictable, disorderly, cracking the social order action open below.” from

TWO CHEERS FOR ANARCHISM - - -

n is editor in chief of is editor in chief of

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY Two Cheers- is too limit Two None of this is meant to suggest that that to suggest this is meant of None The Declaration and a coauthor of The Declaration Reason.com Can Politics Libertarian How of Independents: With America Wrong Fix What’s (2011). NICK GILLESPIE dia, which describes itself as “the free “the free which describes itself as dia, encyclopedia can edit”—talk anyone is a old, years 76 Scott, about anarchy!— in political sci Yale at professor chaired of director and anthropology, and ence In the Agrarian there. Studies Program he is not simply a member other words, but of a superelite. of an everyday elite, his best intentions, despite and such, As find it difficult to see past the he must privilege and sense of entitlement that in New Ha him surely still surround realize would he But if he could, ven. people than he recognizes are that more not only viewing the world an through but actually getting squint,” “anarchist with the importantof living on project they way want to. the their lives tion Scotttion champions. contemporary America—or the wider world—is point utopian tipping at some Scott’s But self-actualization. toward well-meaning Wikipe to According ed in its survey. - - - - schools, each year an increasing number an increasing each year schools, at allof children levels of learning and tai- schoolsattending more are income desires. their parents’ to their and lored also number of kids are increasing (An arguably a more being homeschooled, There disruptionprofound of the norm.) than 5,000 charter more schools—are publicly with volun funded institutions taryand individualized attendance cur ricula—serving million than two more there In 1991, kids in the United States. Charters encompass a single one. wasn’t educationwide range of methods and a books” “great follow al programs—some curricula and others teach Afrocentrism While their or emphasize work-study. they represent vary, student outcomes the sort of decentralized experimenta they want to. living their lives the way the way living their lives the important project of project of the important actually getting onactually with an “anarchist squint,” but squint,” an “anarchist viewing thethrough world More people are not only not only are people More

TWO CHEERS FOR ANARCHISM LETTERS

In “The Tocquevillean Moment . . . and technical education. To be sure, entering Ours” [Summer ’12], Wilfred M. Mc- freshman are forced to read classic texts, Clay offers a valuable reminder of Toc- but there is no systematic effort to inte- queville’s insight into the great promise grate such learning into their discipline of democracy and his foresight concern- majors. Those of us who have taught the ing the threat of a democratic devolu- humanities at four-year institutions are tion into a society that values only the continually confronted by students who most radical and atomizing sense of the question the validity and applicability individual and their place in the world. of such courses, and who want to know I do, however, question McClay’s as- just how much of the texts they must sessment of the history of liberal educa- memorize in order to get an A so they tion in this country, as well as his con- can show prospective graduate schools a comitant apotheosis of the four-year perfect GPA. residential university as the most ap- These experiences are not limited to propriate site for that education to take the 21st-century classroom. In his 1956 place. McClay romantically asserts that classic The Organization Man, William H. the four-year residential higher-learn- Whyte described the American universi- ing institution has been the preeminent ty as a remarkably anti-intellectual place site of a profound commitment to the concerned with providing its charges a “shared enterprise [of ] . . . serious and kind of advanced vocational education careful reading and discussion of clas- largely devoid of any significant consid- sic literary, philosophical, historical, and eration of the philosophical, literary, and scientific texts.” While there is a certain historical legacies of humanity. amount of truth to his claim, scholars In light of this extensive legacy of ap- who have studied the American acad- athy and disdain toward the humanities emy have made clear that throughout in the university, I question McClay’s the 20th century (and particularly since defense of the existing American acade- World War II) the American univer- my as our last best hope for the preser- sity has increasingly become a site for vation of classical learning. It seems to carefully focused (perhaps too focused) me that in order to foster a societal ethos

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 ------. Greenberg’s desire to desire Greenberg’s . THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY I applaud Mr

Letters may be sent via e-mail to sent via e-mail to may be Letters [email protected] tion in America. He will no argu get in America. tion be fair: But let’s me there. ment from barely begins to en “quixotic” word The enormitythe compass task he is the of the revi to that, Compared proposing. talization of liberal education in the col But both jobs be a breeze. would leges deserve our attention. remake primaryremake and secondary educa vations that will lower costs but make but make costs will that lower vations accomplish to difficult it all more the that onlythe things a classroom and It is possible. make interaction human the four-year that to say “romantic” not been preemi college has residential of a phys the ideal nent in upholding ical community devoted to the study and classicof foundational ideas texts. Amer in institution is no other There ican society close that even comes in imperfectly, so does it That regard. that is another mat even disappointingly, reason a sufficient But it is not yet ter. to dispense with it. ------Los Angeles, Calif. Los Angeles, ERIK GREENBERG

Director of Education Director Autry Center National — CLAY RESPONDS: CLAY I am in sympathy with most of what I am in sympathy with most of what Mr. Greenberg says. But I am afraid But I am afraid says. Greenberg Mr. I he mischaracterizes my argument. status current the “apotheosize” not do it! from Far quo in higher education. article in the I complain about high and exorbitant failures er education’s and supportidea that we the costs, its structure and goals need to rethink What I am not willing dramatically. is dispense with it alto though, to do, of technological in favor inno gether, WILFRED Mc that favors such learning, we would be would we such learning, that favors servedbetter an all-outeffort by re to classical store learning to our elemen I recognize the tary high schools. and but in of this suggestion, nature quixotic in waning a very our nation’s sense real in preservingterest liberal education in the sig of reflection is a universities its nificant absence of such learning in our K–12 institutions.

LETTERS WQ THE WILSON QUARTERLY

EDITOR Steven Lagerfeld

LITERARY EDITOR Sarah L. Courteau

ASSOCIATE EDITORS Darcy Courteau, Cullen Nutt

EDITORIAL INTERN Alexandra Tate

EDITORS AT LARGE Ann Hulbert, James Morris, Jay Tolson

COPY EDITOR Vincent Ercolano

PHOTO RESEARCHER Madeline Kelty

CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Daniel Akst, Stephen Bates, Martha Bayles, Max Byrd, Linda Colley, Denis Donoghue, Max Holland, Walter Reich, Alan Ryan, Amy E. Schwartz, Edward Tenner, Charles Townshend, Alan Wolfe

BOARD OF EDITORIAL ADVISORS K. Anthony Appiah, Cynthia Arnson, Amy Chua, Tyler Cowen, Harry Harding, Robert Hathaway, Elizabeth Johns, Jackson Lears, Robert Litwak, Wilfred M. McClay, Blair Ruble, Peter Skerry, S. Frederick Starr, Martin Walker, Samuel Wells

FOUNDING EDITOR Peter Braestrup (1929–1997)

BUSINESS DIRECTOR Suzanne Napper

APP DEVELOPMENT AND DESIGN iAuthorscape

CONTINUES

THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2013 THE WILSON QUARTERLY is a window on the world of ideas for general readers. Historical perspective and a commitment to consider all sides are the hallmarks of its articles on foreign affairs, politics, culture, science, and other subjects. By making new knowledge accessible to all, it aims to foster more informed public debate.

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