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Market Snapshot and Intraday Chart www.deepdataanalytics.com.au Australian Trading Day Market Report 29 January 2021 INVESTMENT MOTTO: “Life is all about cycles. You evolve with the cycles or they run over you.” MARKET SNAPSHOT AND INTRADAY CHART Sources: AFR, AAP, ASX, Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, FactSet, Hedgeye, IRESS, Market Watch, Thomson Reuters, S&P, SMH, Trading Economics 1 www.deepdataanalytics.com.au Australian Trading Day Market Report 29 January 2021 MARKET COMMENTARY: 1. Local market was taken down to negative territory by constant selling pressure after popping up at the open on the expected dead cat bounce. US market had a dead cat bounce overnight that faded through the day with mixed economic data. We were to follow that but local and global investors were getting ahead of the seasonal weak period in Feb/Mar to lock in their performance for the month end. The month end window dressing trades were no match to the selling pressure. Energy and Banks were the worst hit while Health Care and Telecom Services were the best. Gold sector has started to shine on safety and value trade. We had elevated volatility in bond and currency markets overnight and now the US futures pointing to more pain coming. Markets were ignoring the obvious lockdown/restrictions/delays driven downgrade coming out of Europe and US. After the confirmation from ECB and US Fed, there is no stimulus boost to cover this downgrade. New US administration is more concerned about Main Street and that recovery might cost a Wall Street bashing. Reflation genie is out of the bottle and Central Banks have lost control. We have also started the currency wars where USD debasement is delivering inflation to US but boosting everyone else and exporting deflation to the world. Due to the global reserve currency status, money printing by other central banks are unlikely to make a difference but ECB, BOJ and RBA have made that mistake in the past…don’t bet against them to repeat the failed policy again. Chinese central bank PBOC has been tightening into this cycle to reduce the bubble risk. You know things are weird when China is making the smart move while the rest of the world runs around like headless chooks. Have we started the sell off cycle as earnings reality, virus damage, reflation and lack of excess stimulus starts to bite the structurally challenged economies? Has a feel of that…but time will tell. Let us look at a few signals regarding risk off trade… (1) USD breaking above 50 day Moving Average for the first time in 3 months on risk off trade. 2 www.deepdataanalytics.com.au Australian Trading Day Market Report 29 January 2021 (2) Aussie volatility index hits 2 month high as risk rises. (3) Shanghai Composite has pulled back below 50 day Moving Average as the best recovery market slides on lower global growth. There is a lot of attention being given to the short/gamma squeeze played out in the US market in a few stocks. The reality of the situation is that there is nothing new to see here. Regulations were weak to allow big funds to use this methodology to boost performance. Usually a few big funds can dry out the selling pressure and boost a heavily shorted stock to force short covering and get a performance boost. The fact that options are being used to get the same result by retail investors does not change the methodology. It also does not make it illegal. As the saying 3 www.deepdataanalytics.com.au Australian Trading Day Market Report 29 January 2021 goes… “Don’t hate the player, Hate the game!”. If you set the rules to allow big players to get a certain outcome legally, then it is not illegal for smaller players to achieve the same result. If you think it’s manipulation, then limits the amount of shorts that can be held or how much maximum holding you can have in a stock. The squeeze works on both sides of the coin….long and short. Regulators should make changes but they will not change it due to “Lance Armstrong Effect”. Too many people make too much lazy money playing the game. They will try and hide the game more by making it harder for retail but the game will be played. Crowded trade is the same on the long side as well as the short side. If you are in a crowded trade, you run the risk of getting squeezed. It’s the nature of the beast that you are playing with. There are a lot of players attacking it (i.e. they tend to be pro big funds) and defending it (i.e. they tend to be special situational investors like SPAC). Each are defending their turf against more regulations removing their standard models. Investment is about managing risk and return. Don’t complain about someone beating you at your own game. Just come back with a better model or you won’t last anyway. Comments on US market last close > US market had a bounce after the bash. Partial recovery from yesterday's losses. S&P beating NASDAQ and RUSSELL is not a positive sign. USD pulled back after starting strong. AUDUSD got below 76 and now near 77. US bond yield fell to 1% and now 1.05%. Fund managers are trying to hold it together for month end. Gold and Financial sectors were the best in a green day. European markets were weak mainly and commodities were weak too. Market outlook for Feb is not looking good for now! Remain nimble, contrarian and cautiously pragmatic with elevated global macro risks!!! Buckle up...it’s going to get bumpy!!! 4 www.deepdataanalytics.com.au Australian Trading Day Market Report 29 January 2021 2. Movers and Shakers in S&P 300 > 3. CNN Fear & Greed Index > 5 www.deepdataanalytics.com.au Australian Trading Day Market Report 29 January 2021 4. Bank of Queensland (BOQ -2.57%) > The Bank’s capital management strategy aims to ensure adequate capital levels are maintained to protect deposit holders. The Bank’s capital is measured and managed in line with Prudential Standards issued by APRA. The capital management plan is updated annually and submitted to the Board for approval. The approval process is designed to ensure the plan is consistent with the overall business plan and for managing capital levels on an ongoing basis. The Board has set the Common Equity Tier 1 Capital target range to be between 9.0% and 9.5% and the Total Capital target range to be between 11.75% and 13.5%. As at 30 November 2020: Common Equity Tier 1 Capital Ratio was 9.9% (9.8% as at 31 August 2020); and Total Capital Ratio was 13.7% (12.7% as at 31 August 2020). ASX 5. BlueScope (BSL +3.49%) > BlueScope today announced it expects preliminary unaudited underlying earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) for 1H FY2021 to be around $530 million. This is above prior guidance of approximately $475 million. The results are subject to finalisation and external audit review. Managing Director and CEO Mark Vassella said, “All operating segments have performed well across the half. We have seen strong volumes and improving steel spreads in our largest steelmaking business in Australia and the US, along with strong earnings improvements from our other businesses. ASX 6. Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP +1.66%) > Centuria Property Funds No.2 Limited (CPF2L) as Responsible Entity of Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP) has announced the acquisition of two modern industrial facilities in Derrimut, VIC, for $37.25m on an average initial yield of 5.1%. The portfolio is the Trust’s first acquisition for the second half of FY21, providing 100% occupancy and a 4.6-year portfolio WALE. The properties add to CIP’s growing exposure within the Derrimut, VIC, industrial corridor. ASX 7. Freedom Foods (FNP N/T) > Freedom Foods Group Limited (ASX: FNP) is pleased to announce that is has reached an in-principle agreement with its majority shareholder, Arrovest Pty Ltd, for a recapitalisation of the business involving an issue of secured Convertible Notes (Notes). The in-principle agreement with Arrovest also has the non-binding indicative, in- principle support of the Company’s senior lenders, NAB and HSBC. Funding from the recapitalisation will enable the Company to materially repay its senior term and revolving secured debt and provide it with sufficient working capital and a stable capital structure to enable it to continue its financial and operational turnaround. ASX 8. humm group (HUM -0.87%) > humm group limited (ASX: HUM) (“hummgroup” or “the Company”) today provides a trading update in relation to its unaudited financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2020 (“1H21”). Based on unaudited accounts, hummgroup expects to report 1H21 Cash Net Profit After Tax1 (“NPAT”) of $43.4m, up 25.8% on pcp (1H20: $34.5m). While hummgroup’s credit performance remains robust, the Company continues to take a prudent approach by monitoring the potential impact on arrears and losses from changes to government stimulus, and remains well provisioned for the future. In 2H21 hummgroup will be making new investments in marketing and people as it enters two international markets. As a result, the Company expects 2H21 Cash NPAT to be lower than 1H21.ASX 9. Kogan Group (KGN -8.49%) > During the key Christmas sales periods, more Australians than ever shopped at Kogan.com and the Business now has over 3 million active customers. 1HFY21 Highlights across the Kogan Group (including Kogan.com and Mighty Ape1) ● Gross Sales grew by more than 96% ● Gross Profit grew by more than 120% ● Adjusted EBITDA2 grew by more than 175% ● EBITDA grew by more than 140% ● Cash at period end was A$78.9M3 with A$1.4M of the Group’s debt facility drawn within Mighty Ape ● Active Customers was 3,003,000 for Kogan.com and 719,000 for Mighty Ape.
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