Prediction of Overseas Migration of the Small Brown Planthopper, Laodelphax Striatellus (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) in East Asia
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Appl Entomol Zool (2012) 47:379–388 DOI 10.1007/s13355-012-0130-x ORIGINAL RESEARCH PAPER Prediction of overseas migration of the small brown planthopper, Laodelphax striatellus (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) in East Asia Akira Otuka • Yijun Zhou • Gwan-Seok Lee • Masaya Matsumura • Yeqin Zhu • Hong-Hyun Park • Zewen Liu • Sachiyo Sanada-Morimura Received: 19 April 2012 / Accepted: 25 July 2012 / Published online: 21 August 2012 Ó The Japanese Society of Applied Entomology and Zoology 2012 Abstract A method has been developed for predicting the Keywords Laodelphax striatellus Á Long-distance overseas migration of Laodelphax striatellus (Falle´n) from migration Á Effective accumulated temperature Á eastern China to Japan and Korea. The method consists of Migration simulation two techniques: estimation of the emigration period in the source region and simulation of migration. The emigration period was estimated by calculating the effective accumu- Introduction lated temperature for the insect by use of real-time daily surface temperatures at the source. During the emigration The small brown planthopper Laodelphax striatellus period, migration simulations were performed twice a day, (Falle´n), a vector of Rice stripe virus and Rice black at every dusk and dawn. The prediction method was eval- streaked dwarf virus, is one of the major insect pests of uated, by cross-validation using migrations in the 4 years rice. Because it is able to overwinter in temperate regions from 2008 to 2011. The results showed that the emigration including Japan, Korea, and China, most L. striatellus have periods included the mass migrations, and that the method long been believed not to be a migratory insect pest, successfully predicted those migrations. although small numbers of L. striatellus migrants have been caught over the sea (Noda 1986). Therefore, rice stripe disease in rice fields was believed to be caused mainly by local L. striatellus populations. Mass overseas migration of L. striatellus and a subsequent outbreak of rice A. Otuka (&) Á M. Matsumura Á S. Sanada-Morimura stripe disease were reported to have occurred in western NARO/Kyushu Okinawa Agricultural Research Center, Japan in 2008, and Jiangsu province in China was identi- 2421 Suya, Koshi, Kumamoto 861-1192, Japan fied as a possible source (Otuka et al. 2010). After this e-mail: [email protected] migration, another mass immigration occurred in western Y. Zhou Korea in 2009 (Kim 2009; Kim et al. 2009; Otuka 2009). Institute of Plant Protection, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Large numbers of immigrants were captured in net traps Sciences, Xuanwu, Nanjing 210014, People’s Republic of China along the western coastline of the Korean peninsula, and G.-S. Lee Á H.-H. Park the immigrants subsequently caused a severe outbreak of Crop Protection Division, National Academy of Agricultural rice stripe disease in paddy fields there (Kim 2009; Kim Science, Rural Development Administration, 61 Seodun-dong, et al. 2009). A possible source of these immigrations was Gwonseon-gu, Suwon 441-853, Republic of Korea estimated to be Jiangsu province (Otuka 2009). Y. Zhu Since 2004 a severe outbreak of L. striatellus and rice Plant Protection Station of Jiangsu Province, Longjiang, stripe disease has spread throughout Jiangsu province. Nanjing 210036, People’s Republic of China Viruliferous L. striatellus in the province peaked at 30 % in 2005 and decreased to 12 % in 2009 (Zhu 2006, 2009). Z. Liu College of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, This was higher than the value of approximately 5 % for No. 1 Weigang, Nanjing 210095, People’s Republic of China Kyushu district, Japan (Matsumura and Otuka 2009). 123 380 Appl Entomol Zool (2012) 47:379–388 It has, thus, become important to predict the migration 126.34°E; open square in Fig. 1), Sinan, Korea (34.82°N, of L. striatellus to enable prediction of the pest’s arrival 126.10°E; open triangle), Isahaya, Japan (32.84°N, time and areas of invasion. 130.03°E; open circle), and Tongzhou, China (32.11°N, A migration-prediction technique has been applied to 121.08°E; solid triangle). Monitoring in Korea and China migration of two other tropical species of rice planthop- was started in 2009 and 2010, respectively. At each site, a pers—the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Sta˚l), tow net trap 1.5 m in depth with a 1-m ring was mounted at and the white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera the top of a pole 10 m above the ground. Insects caught in (Horva´th)—and has achieved a prediction accuracy of each trap were collected every morning and counted by 78 % (Otuka et al. 2005a). In the prediction of migration extension officers, except that insects in the net trap at of these species, it is assumed that they take off in Taean in 2009 were collected every week until June 3 and southern China every dusk and dawn, mainly during the those in the same trap in 2011 were collected every 12 h at Bai-u rainy season from late June to early July, and their 0900 and 2100 hours local time on May 31 and afterward. overseas migration is predicted to occur when south- Insects in the net trap at Sinan in 2009 were not collected westerly winds blow over the East China Sea. Overseas on Saturdays and Sundays. migrations of L. striatellus have so far been confined to within very short periods of time, from late May to early Backward trajectory analysis June, as shown below. This period of emigration corre- sponds environmentally to the time of the wheat harvest To determine whether a catch in the net traps in Korea and and entomologically to the emergence of the first gener- Japan was a result of immigration from overseas, backward ation macropterous adults of L. striatellus (Zhu 2009, trajectory analysis was conducted (Otuka et al. 2005b). The Sogawa 2005). Therefore, prediction of migration on the analysis traces an air parcel backwardly to find a possible basis of the previously developed simulation technique migration source. The method has previously been applied was expected to be improved if the emigration period was to net trap catches obtained on 5 June 2008 in Isahaya and accurately estimated and the prediction was performed 1–3 June 2009 in Taean and Sinan, and those catches were during that period only. found to be a result of immigration from overseas (Otuka This study, therefore, proposes a method for prediction et al. 2010; Otuka 2009). The same analysis was applied to of migration involving a combination of the prediction of monitoring data in Korea and Japan in 2010 and 2011. The the emigration period of L. striatellus in the source region results were used for evaluation of the prediction. and simulation of migration. The former prediction is conducted by calculating the effective accumulated tem- perature (EAT) for the insect. The simulation model for tropical rice planthoppers, with a few modifications, is used for the migration simulation. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by comparing the prediction with insect catches 40˚N in the destination areas. Meteorological conditions which cause the overseas migrations and possible domestic migrations within China are discussed. Taean Materials and methods 35˚N Sinan This section describes monitoring methods in three coun- Dongtai tries and outlines how to predict an overseas migration. Tongzhou Isahaya The method of prediction consists of two steps: prediction of the timing of emergence of the first generation of the overwintering population in a source region, and simula- 30˚N tion of migration. The section also describes a method for 115˚E 120˚E 125˚E 130˚E evaluation of a prediction. Fig. 1 Location of net traps in China, Korea, and Japan. The solid Trap monitoring in China, Korea, and Japan triangle indicates the location of the net trap at Tongzhou, Jiangsu province for emigration monitoring. The open square, triangle, and circle indicate net traps for immigration monitoring at Taean and To monitor the occurrence of L. striatellus, net traps were Sinan, Korea, and Isahaya, Japan, respectively. The solid circle located in three different countries: Taean, Korea (36.76°N, indicates the location of a weather station in Dongtai 123 Appl Entomol Zool (2012) 47:379–388 381 Migration source in this study A whole region of Jiangsu province was assumed to be a a: EAT at emergece source area of L. striatellus overseas migration (the loca- tion of the province is given in Fig. 1). This assumption Past years was based on the following: – First, the province was estimated to be the possible source of migration into western Japan in 2008 (Otuka et al. 2010). b: Averaging termperature (EAT) – Second, L. striatellus has been widespread throughout Effective accumulated the whole of Jiangsu province since 2004 and its Date density in wheat fields in the spring has been very high (Zhu 2006, 2009). The area of occurrence of rice stripe c: Previously determined threshold disease in Jiangsu province accounted for 70 % of the Presumed daily increase total in China in 2003 (Zhou 2009). EAT Prediction year An overview of predicting the timing of emergence and emigration Actual daily increase The timing of emergence and that of emigration are both of Date Predicted emergece date (PE) interest. Emigration occurs within a few days after emergence (Zhang et al. 2011). To predict the timing of emigration of PE L. striatellus from a source region, first, the EAT value at Date emergence of the first generation of the overwintering pop- ulation must be determined in advance; this calculation is d: Predicted emigration priod repeated for several previous years so that several EAT values Fig. 2 Schematic diagram of prediction of the emigration period. for the emergence are obtained (Fig. 2a). Second, these EAT The emergence date is predicted by calculating the effective values are averaged to obtain a previously determined accumulated temperature (EAT), and its threshold value is determined threshold.