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28-29 May 2020, International Online Forum 28-29 May 2020, International Online Forum 1 28-29 May 2020, International Online Forum Table of Contents PROGRAM RUNDOWN ................................................................................................................................. 3 TOPICS AND ABSTRACTS ........................................................................................................................... 5 KEYNOTE I: Learning from COVID-19 Data in Wuhan, USA and the World on Intervention Strategies ....... 5 A Simple Projection Model for COVID-19 Pandemic ...................................................................................... 5 COVID-19 Dashboard for New York State ..................................................................................................... 5 Modeling the Heterogeneous Disease-Behavior-Information Dynamics during Epidemics ............................ 6 Prevention of COVID-19 After the Relaxation of Control Measures ............................................................... 6 Social Data for Changing and Predicting Health Behaviors ........................................................................... 6 KEYNOTE II: Supply Chain Resiliency and the Need for Stress-Tests .......................................................... 7 Mechanistically Inspired Data-driven COVID-19 Pandemic Modeling ............................................................ 7 Modeling, State Estimation, and Optimal Control for the US COVID-19 outbreak ........................................ 8 COVID-19 Pandemic – Impact on Food Supply Chains: Lessons Learnt for Hong Kong ............................. 8 Constructing the Infection Curve of the Local Cases of the Coronavirus Disease (“COVID-19”) in Hong Kong Using Backprojection ............................................................................................................................. 9 The Power of Small Data through the Lens of COVID-19 Pandemic ............................................................. 9 BIOGRAPHIES AND PHOTOS .................................................................................................................... 10 ORGANIZING COMMITTEE ........................................................................................................................ 17 Co-organised by School of Data Science, College of Business and Hong Kong Institute for Data Science, City University of Hong Kong. This event is sponsored by TRS Project (Grant Number: T32-102/14N) of Prof Youhua Frank CHEN. 2 28-29 May 2020, International Online Forum PROGRAM RUNDOWN International Forum on Data Science Approaches to the COVID-19 Pandemic 28 May 2020 28 May 2020 (Thur) (GMT +08:00) 8:30am - 9:00am Online Sign-in and Virtual Reception 9:00am - 9:10am Welcoming Address Prof Way KUO (City University of Hong Kong) 9:10am - 9:40am Keynote speech: Prof Xihong LIN Learning from COVID-19 Data in Wuhan, (Harvard University) USA and the World on Intervention Strategies 9:40am - 9:50am Q & A Session Prof S Joe QIN (City University of Hong Kong) Speakers’ presentation: The COVID-19 Pandemic Chair: Prof Houmin YAN (CityU) Co-chair: Dr Long FENG (CityU) 9:50am - 10:10am A Simple Projection Model for COVID-19 Prof Jian LU Pandemic (City University of Hong Kong) 10:10am - 10:30am COVID-19 Dashboard for New York State Prof Fengqi YOU (Cornell University) 10:30am – 10:50am Modeling the Heterogeneous Disease- Dr Qingpeng ZHANG Behavior-Information Dynamics during (City University of Hong Kong) Epidemics 10:50am - 11:10am Prevention of COVID-19 after the Dr Sean YUAN Relaxation of Control Measures (City University of Hong Kong) 11:10am - 11:30am Social Data for Changing and Predicting Prof Sean YOUNG Health Behaviors (University of California, Irvine) 11:30am - 11:35am Wrap-up for the day Prof Houmin YAN (City University of Hong Kong) Dr Long FENG (City University of Hong Kong) 3 28-29 May 2020, International Online Forum PROGRAM RUNDOWN International Forum on Data Science Approaches to the COVID-19 Pandemic 29 May 2020 29 May 2020 (Fri) (GMT +08:00) 8:30am - 9:00am Online Sign-in and Virtual Reception 9:00am - 9:30am Keynote speech: Prof David SIMCHI-LEVI Supply Chain Resiliency and the Need for (Massachusetts Institute of Stress-Tests Technology) 9:30am - 9:40am Q & A Session Prof Frank CHEN (City University of Hong Kong) Speakers’ presentation: The COVID-19 Pandemic Impact and Responses Chair: Dr Qingpeng ZHANG (CityU) Co-chair: Dr Xinyue LI (CityU) 9:40am - 10:00am Mechanistically Inspired Data-driven Prof S Joe QIN COVID-19 Pandemic Modeling (City University of Hong Kong) 10:00am - 10:20am Modeling, State Estimation, and Optimal Dr Michael BALDEA Control for the US COVID-19 Outbreak (The University of Texas at Austin) 10:20am - 10:40am COVID-19 Pandemic – Impact on Food Prof Frank CHEN Supply Chains: Lessons Learnt for Hong (City University of Hong Kong) Kong 10:40am - 11:00am Constructing the Infection Curve of the Prof Paul YIP Local Cases of the Coronavirus Disease (University of Hong Kong) (“COVID-19”) in Hong Kong Using Backprojection 11:00am - 11:20am The Power of Small Data through the Lens Prof Jie LIU of COVID-19 Pandemic (Harbin Institute of Technology) 11:20am - 12:00nn Wrap-up Panel Discussion Prof S Joe QIN (City University of Hong Kong) Dr Qingpeng ZHANG (City University of Hong Kong) 4 28-29 May 2020, International Online Forum TOPICS AND ABSTRACTS KEYNOTE I: Learning from COVID-19 Data in Wuhan, USA and the World on Intervention Strategies Speaker: Prof Xihong LIN, Professor of Department of Biostatistics of Harvard School of Public Health, Coordinating Director of Program in Quantitative Genomics at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Professor of Department of Statistics at the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University Abstract: COVID-19 is an emerging respiratory infectious disease that has become a pandemic. It was first detected in early December 2019 in Wuhan, China. Until April 30, COVID-19 has quickly spread to over 150 countries worldwide and infected more than 3.3 million individuals and caused 237,000 deaths globally. In this talk, I will first provide a historical overview of the epidemic in Wuhan. I will then provide the analysis results of 32,000 lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan to evaluate the effects of different public health interventions on controlling the COVID-19 outbreak, such as social distancing, isolation and quarantine, as well as summarizing the epidemiological characteristics of the cases. The results show that multi-faceted intervention measures successfully controlled the outbreak in Wuhan. I will next present the estimated effects of the social distancing measure using the data in Wuhan, USA and Europe on controlling the epidemic and the factors that are useful to consider for reopening. Strategies and challenges for different types of tests, such as PCR and antibody tests, and contact tracing will be discussed. Preliminary survey results of >500,000 participants of the HowWeFeel project on symptoms and health conditions in US will be presented. I will provide several take home messages and discuss priorities. A Simple Projection Model for COVID-19 Pandemic Speaker: Prof Jian LU, Chair Professor of Department of Biomedical Sciences, Department of Mechanical Engineering and Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Vice-President (Research and Technology), City University of Hong Kong Abstract: With the worldwide outbreak of coronavirus COVID-19, a simple model to predict how the coronavirus pandemic will evolve in individual countries/ states becomes important and urgent. Our goal is to provide a prediction model for the coming days and weeks to help policy makers in different countries address the epidemic outbreak and adjust the control policies to contain the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) more effectively. Daily update is provided to show the latest situation in different geographic locations over the world, including America, Europe, Asia... COVID-19 Dashboard for New York State Speaker: Prof Fengqi YOU, Roxanne E. and Michael J. Zak Professor of Energy Systems Engineering, Cornell University Abstract: In this presentation, there will be a short introduction and sharing on the visualization project/ dashboard for New Your State conducted by the group headed by Prof You. 5 28-29 May 2020, International Online Forum Modeling the Heterogeneous Disease-Behavior-Information Dynamics during Epidemics Speaker: Dr Qingpeng ZHANG, Assistant Professor of School of Data Science, City University of Hong Kong. Abstract: The transmission of infectious diseases depends on the social networks among people and the personal protections that people have taken before being exposed to the disease. Traditional epidemiological models assume homogeneous relationships in the social network. In this study, we propose a multiplex network framework for the modeling of the heterogeneous disease-behavior-information dynamics during epidemics, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In this framework, people’s vulnerability to the disease is influenced by the transmissions of information, behavior, and disease in the social network. Analytical and simulation results are presented to validate the model. Prevention of COVID-19 After the Relaxation of Control Measures Speaker: Dr Sean Yuan, Assistant Professor of Department of Biomedical Sciences, City University of Hong Kong Abstract: The current COVID-19 outbreak has caused an unprecedented global pandemic,
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